Some interesting insights. One correction of course, only one Russian pilot was killed by the local Turkmen, the other managed to run away and was rescued by Russian and Syrian forces (which included a Hezbollah detachment). The surviving pilot insists convincingly there was no warning - which is bad news for Turkey. There are indications that the Russian GPS (GLASSNOSS) is not as robust as its western counterpart and a small error may have crept in to its route putting it just inside Turkey. The rescued airman was the navigator and says weather was good and he knows the area well and they did not cross into Turkey. Why did Turkey shoot down the Russian jet and not just buzz it? Well Russia has been sending drones over this area and and inflicted damage on the local Turkmans wih one about a week ago. The Turks threatened retaliation then and may have felt under pressure to demonstrate their support for the Turkmen and to keep them on side, promised a strong response to the next Russian incursion there. Changing topic, latest economic research indicates that once the oil leaves ISIL controlled refineries, it is distributed by local entrepreneurs into the wider region for local use using fleets of trucks. Some of these dealers may of course be Turks. The US said the other day that it is now targeting these convoys to cut ISIL's income. So it seems is Russia. But while Russia claims to be targeting ISIL it going mostly after the local opposition to Assad (I would not call any of them moderates). Turkey also claims to be bombing ISIL but is actually bombing the Kurds. Hezbollah is in there supporting Assad of course. ISIL seems to be a useful smoke screen for the Russians and Turks, who have their own agendas, but are actually targeting other local militia groups. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians are turning up in Europe.
Some interesting insights. One correction of course, only one Russian pilot was killed by the local Turkmen, the other managed to run away and was rescued by Russian and Syrian forces (which included a Hezbollah detachment). The surviving pilot insists convincingly there was no warning - which is bad news for Turkey. There are indications that the Russian GPS (GLASSNOSS) is not as robust as its western counterpart and a small error may have crept in to its route putting it just inside Turkey. The rescued airman was the navigator and says weather was good and he knows the area well and they did not cross into Turkey. Why did Turkey shoot down the Russian jet and not just buzz it? Well Russia has been sending drones over this area and and inflicted damage on the local Turkmans wih one about a week ago. The Turks threatened retaliation then and may have felt under pressure to demonstrate their support for the Turkmen and to keep them on side, promised a strong response to the next Russian incursion there. Changing topic, latest economic research indicates that once the oil leaves ISIL controlled refineries, it is distributed by local entrepreneurs into the wider region for local use using fleets of trucks. Some of these dealers may of course be Turks. The US said the other day that it is now targeting these convoys to cut ISIL's income. So it seems is Russia. But while Russia claims to be targeting ISIL it going mostly after the local opposition to Assad (I would not call any of them moderates). Turkey also claims to be bombing ISIL but is actually bombing the Kurds. Hezbollah is in there supporting Assad of course. ISIL seems to be a useful smoke screen for the Russians and Turks, who have their own agendas, but are actually targeting other local militia groups. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians are turning up in Europe.