Correct. But it was not primarily Bush,Cheney and Rumsfeld, but their staffers/underlings. For guidance, follow the path to Dep.SecDef, foreign policy staff of VP Cheney, and the only "guest" in the NSC who used to be an academic expert on the Middle East but decided that the "time had come to do something for his people". But you already know that,Juan. Si?
Has anyone ever thought about Kurdish identity ? Of course,they want to advance their own autonomy and hope for eventual independence.
But while it is true that Kurdish identity is different from Arab, Turkish and Iranian identity,the relative distances are not equal. In cultural and linguistic terms Kurds have been more close to Persian Iranians--Iran being a multi-ethnic empire/nationstate--than to either Arabs or Turks. Indeed, classical Iranian nationalists consider their cultural identity to extend from Kurdistan in the West to Tajikistan in the East.
So,to expect Kurds to "block" Iranian advances in Syria suggests ignorance of local attitudes.
Before the end of the Clinton Administration there was a similar vote in Fall of 2000: 120-3, the three being Israel,USA and Micronesia. About four months later another one resulted 126-6,the six were the earlier three plus Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. In Winter 2001 this was followed by 115-2, you know who were the two. Perhaps it was too cold for some reps to show up.
All this in the face of major lobbying by the USUN mission, one of our largest embassies! Not much has changed....but Nikki Haley,s conduct has gone way over the top.
Does anyone here think that the recent developments in KSA (major moves by MBS to consolidate power, foreign policy actions,etc) followed a "clearance" from the White House, as we were informed that POTUS' son-in-law Kushner had been on an unannounced visit to KSA just a week ago ?
Excellent summary, Juan.
Saudi Arabia is/wants to be the natural hegemon on the Arabian Peninsula. Qatar has been getting out of line, feeling its oats with all that carbon-based income. AlJazeerah, FIFA world cup, independent foreign policy in conflict resolution (Darfur,Palestine,etc.Libya of course). Young Mohammad bin Salman in KSA is also feeling his oats unlike his elders from the late kings Faisal to Abdullah. Spot on!
Why are we always asking the wrong question (about unforeseen casualties and by whom) ? Should we not ask why ISIS was able to take ALL of Mosul in 6 hours in June '14 and our coalition has not been able to do that in 6 months ?
NO ! There was a document on USG stationery which Gen. Wesley Clark saw; it was the policy of the group headed by the then Dep. SecDEf Paul Wolfowitz. No personal surmise and not fuzzy at all. We who were there still have nightmares.
You are so correct (once again),Juan.
Having over-demonized, if there is such a term,Iran (and Asad and Putin), we find ourselves in a near hopeless box of flailing against former partners and potential future friends.
What is shocking to me is that our foreign policy establishment seems to have lost its ability to pursue a nuanced foreign policy. Is that all driven by an agenda to achieve minimal gains before November 9 or January 20 ?
No,no,no. The Trump "supporters" are actually not at all. What they are is shown on the sign: they hate HRC with a passion, and they believe that Trump will deliver them from her and from what they believe standard politicians have done to them and their country.
To them it is quite irrelevant what Trump says and what he does; it is all about what he promises( e.g."lock her up"!)
Amazing essay; certainly thought-provoking. Thanks for sharing; I plan to pass it on.
Question: How could it become required reading for politicians and the general public, followed by mandatory discussions ?
xtian,
You and General Flynn do not disagree. You were referring to your professional colleagues--with whom I identify also--and he was referring to the general public.
I was serving in another branch of the USG at the time, in a fairly senior position, and my experiences were similar to yours.
The simple math, well known to politicians, is that there are more among the uninformed masses than among the professional specialists. Ergo.
Good insights ,Juan, and new information (for me). Which of the politicized Turkish media can be trusted here ? As you point out,they all have domestic agendas.
Another dimension is the historical fact, well-known to JC--that the oddly shaped Hatay Province--Alexandretta to Syria--was donated to Ataturk's Turkey by Mandate France in the late 1930s, giving Turkey control of the NE corner of the Mediterranean and setting off a perpetual dispute between Turkey and Syria once the latter became independent after WW II. It was there that Syrian refugees first crossed into "Turkish" territory in large numbers in 2011/12 and from where foreign agents have been operating.
Actually, Merkel's comments did cause the girl to cry, but not because she told her that she was not welcome. I heard the entire exchange;once again,misrepresentation, or deliberate disinformation.She talked about the problem of refugees and asylum seekers and how difficult it is to live away from home. then she hugged her.
Well, it could have been phrased differently: Instead "Ottomans joined WW I on side of Germany and Austria", how about "Ottomans entered into WW I AGAINST Britain,France and Russia, all of whom had nibbled away on the declining O.E."
AK: Do not include the Baathist Parties as you say in this. The founder was Christian as were many of the leaders and followers, precisely because the Ba'ath was totally secular (in order to reach across religious divides in the Fertile Crescent).
How about a "Blessing in Disguise"? Most Americans want their troops home, and I believe that Obama's heart was never in the Afghanistan mission--he used that deployment to justify immediate withdrawal from Iraq by calling the former the "right war" vs. the latter ("wrong war").
He may even have been hoping secretly that Karzai would refuse to sign the BSA and hence giving him the excuse for immediate and complete withdrawal. If so, I concur completely.
Correct. But it was not primarily Bush,Cheney and Rumsfeld, but their staffers/underlings. For guidance, follow the path to Dep.SecDef, foreign policy staff of VP Cheney, and the only "guest" in the NSC who used to be an academic expert on the Middle East but decided that the "time had come to do something for his people". But you already know that,Juan. Si?
Has anyone ever thought about Kurdish identity ? Of course,they want to advance their own autonomy and hope for eventual independence.
But while it is true that Kurdish identity is different from Arab, Turkish and Iranian identity,the relative distances are not equal. In cultural and linguistic terms Kurds have been more close to Persian Iranians--Iran being a multi-ethnic empire/nationstate--than to either Arabs or Turks. Indeed, classical Iranian nationalists consider their cultural identity to extend from Kurdistan in the West to Tajikistan in the East.
So,to expect Kurds to "block" Iranian advances in Syria suggests ignorance of local attitudes.
Before the end of the Clinton Administration there was a similar vote in Fall of 2000: 120-3, the three being Israel,USA and Micronesia. About four months later another one resulted 126-6,the six were the earlier three plus Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. In Winter 2001 this was followed by 115-2, you know who were the two. Perhaps it was too cold for some reps to show up.
All this in the face of major lobbying by the USUN mission, one of our largest embassies! Not much has changed....but Nikki Haley,s conduct has gone way over the top.
Does anyone here think that the recent developments in KSA (major moves by MBS to consolidate power, foreign policy actions,etc) followed a "clearance" from the White House, as we were informed that POTUS' son-in-law Kushner had been on an unannounced visit to KSA just a week ago ?
Excellent summary, Juan.
Saudi Arabia is/wants to be the natural hegemon on the Arabian Peninsula. Qatar has been getting out of line, feeling its oats with all that carbon-based income. AlJazeerah, FIFA world cup, independent foreign policy in conflict resolution (Darfur,Palestine,etc.Libya of course). Young Mohammad bin Salman in KSA is also feeling his oats unlike his elders from the late kings Faisal to Abdullah. Spot on!
Why are we always asking the wrong question (about unforeseen casualties and by whom) ? Should we not ask why ISIS was able to take ALL of Mosul in 6 hours in June '14 and our coalition has not been able to do that in 6 months ?
NO ! There was a document on USG stationery which Gen. Wesley Clark saw; it was the policy of the group headed by the then Dep. SecDEf Paul Wolfowitz. No personal surmise and not fuzzy at all. We who were there still have nightmares.
You are so correct (once again),Juan.
Having over-demonized, if there is such a term,Iran (and Asad and Putin), we find ourselves in a near hopeless box of flailing against former partners and potential future friends.
What is shocking to me is that our foreign policy establishment seems to have lost its ability to pursue a nuanced foreign policy. Is that all driven by an agenda to achieve minimal gains before November 9 or January 20 ?
No,no,no. The Trump "supporters" are actually not at all. What they are is shown on the sign: they hate HRC with a passion, and they believe that Trump will deliver them from her and from what they believe standard politicians have done to them and their country.
To them it is quite irrelevant what Trump says and what he does; it is all about what he promises( e.g."lock her up"!)
Am completely with you,Anisa.(and Juan Cole,as usual)
Amazing essay; certainly thought-provoking. Thanks for sharing; I plan to pass it on.
Question: How could it become required reading for politicians and the general public, followed by mandatory discussions ?
xtian,
You and General Flynn do not disagree. You were referring to your professional colleagues--with whom I identify also--and he was referring to the general public.
I was serving in another branch of the USG at the time, in a fairly senior position, and my experiences were similar to yours.
The simple math, well known to politicians, is that there are more among the uninformed masses than among the professional specialists. Ergo.
Good insights ,Juan, and new information (for me). Which of the politicized Turkish media can be trusted here ? As you point out,they all have domestic agendas.
Another dimension is the historical fact, well-known to JC--that the oddly shaped Hatay Province--Alexandretta to Syria--was donated to Ataturk's Turkey by Mandate France in the late 1930s, giving Turkey control of the NE corner of the Mediterranean and setting off a perpetual dispute between Turkey and Syria once the latter became independent after WW II. It was there that Syrian refugees first crossed into "Turkish" territory in large numbers in 2011/12 and from where foreign agents have been operating.
Actually, Merkel's comments did cause the girl to cry, but not because she told her that she was not welcome. I heard the entire exchange;once again,misrepresentation, or deliberate disinformation.She talked about the problem of refugees and asylum seekers and how difficult it is to live away from home. then she hugged her.
And Henry Kissinger wrote his doctoral dissertation about Prinz Metternich.
Well, it could have been phrased differently: Instead "Ottomans joined WW I on side of Germany and Austria", how about "Ottomans entered into WW I AGAINST Britain,France and Russia, all of whom had nibbled away on the declining O.E."
Have readers still not learned what a caliphate is? (as opposed to what our politicians imply to scare the public). 632 CE-1924 CE.
Check it out.
AK: Do not include the Baathist Parties as you say in this. The founder was Christian as were many of the leaders and followers, precisely because the Ba'ath was totally secular (in order to reach across religious divides in the Fertile Crescent).
How about a "Blessing in Disguise"? Most Americans want their troops home, and I believe that Obama's heart was never in the Afghanistan mission--he used that deployment to justify immediate withdrawal from Iraq by calling the former the "right war" vs. the latter ("wrong war").
He may even have been hoping secretly that Karzai would refuse to sign the BSA and hence giving him the excuse for immediate and complete withdrawal. If so, I concur completely.