These are the first cracks in the iceberg of extremism. These cracks would not have been possible had reformists not won in the elections, and reformists would not have won the elections had AIPAC and American hardliners like Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton gotten their way and trashed the deal.
Iran's population skews young. As the under 35 crowd matures and the old hardliners die off, we are likely to see Iran evolve into a relatively more liberal society. The moderates will continue gaining power--unless we do something stupid like elect Cruz or Trump and trash the nuclear deal and treat Iran like an evil empire. That, more than anything else, will empower hardliners and delay Iran's evolution for many years to come.
"The Israeli far right, which is in power, appears to think that it will be possible simply to transfer the rebellious Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt. But Egypt won’t permit it, and can prevent it."
Actually, there may be more to it than that, given the Egyptian government's skittishness over being tied openly to Israel. Take a look at this story from the Jerusaelm Post
Egyptian officials cancelled a meeting with Netanyahu scheduled to be held in Cairo after Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz announced that Egypt had followed Israel's request to flood and collapse Hamas tunnels. Al-Sisi knows that cooperation with Israel is unpopular with Egyptians, and he's scared out of his skin that he'll be painted as a collaborator. If Israel tries to export Palestinians to Egypt, and if al-Sisi is seen as collaborating in this, a popular uprising could jeopardize his government. I'm not exactly sure what will replace his government if it is swept away, but I can guarantee you Israel won't like it. If Israel tries to transfer Palestinians to Egypt it may well add to instability in the region.
The Saudis will be playing a dangerous game if they keep the prices low long enough to bring Russia to its knees. If the Russians are truly feeling desperate, they might find some sort of excuse to attack Saudi Arabia, particularly its oil fields. They may make something up over an incident in Syria. Or if an unexplained explosion happens on Russian soil, they may claim that Saudi Wahabism influenced Chechens to do it. Of course, these are transparent, BS excuses. Maybe they'll think of something better. But they will be looking for SOME reason, ANY reason to justify an attack. After all, a LOT more will be at stake for them then anything involving the Crimea.
Ten or 20 years ago that would have meant a high probability of triggering a hot war with the U.S. But would we really go to war with Russia over Saudi Arabia now? Would protecting Saudi Arabia still be in our vital interests? We no longer need their oil. Americans in the oil and gas industry would probably cheer on an attack. There is a case to be made that we would be better off if they weren't funding madrasas around the world to spread their Wahabism. And very few Americans love the Saudi government or their beheadings.
I'm sure we would condemn an attack. And we'll probably slap on some more sanctions. But the Russians may calculate the revenue they'll receive when the price of oil spikes will exceed any penalty imposed through new sanctions.
America does have its credibility at stake if we don't defend the Saudis. But if I were Saudi Arabia, I wouldn't count on the U.S. fighting against Russia. If I were the Saudis, I'd be watching Russian cash reserves very carefully, and I'd lower my oil output in order to raise the price of oil if their reserves become dangerously low.
Thank you for this informative article. There seems to be one small problem.
I don't see the graph described in the paragraph below.
"The chart below is a useful guide to how production costs stack up as production heads towards 100m barrels a day (which is pretty much where we are now). Focus on the blue square in the bottom left, which shows onshore Middle East production costs at as little as US$10 a barrel, while US shale (the purple block) can come in at more than US$70."
Thanks, David. I was unaware of this and I find this information very useful. It's interesting to see that President Ezer Weizman called him "one of the greatest figures in the life of the Jewish people and the State of Israel in recent generations" Unfortunately, today a significant number of Israelis would probably spit on his grave.
I really hope they include the Meron Memo as a supporting document in their lawsuit.
In 1967, soon after the Six Day War, Israel's Foreign Ministry asked their lawyer, Theodor Meron for his opinion on whether settling in the "administered territories" would violate international law. Meron was a Holocaust survivor who had graduated with a doctorate in international law from Harvard.
Meron wrote a Top Secret memo that concluded that "civilian settlement in the administered territories contravenes the explicit provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention."
Israel may claim that what it is doing in the West Bank is legal because it is not bound to follow Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. However, the U.S. IS (at least theoretically) committed to following it.
By granting tax exempt status to organizations that are dedicated to violating the Geneva Convention, the U.S. is aiding and abetting those who would violate OUR commitment and obligation to international law-- a law WHICH ISRAEL'S OWN LAWYER said was violated by the actions of these organizations.
We've been hearing for years from right wingers that whenever Palestinians capture settlers attacking Palestinians or their property on video, it is just Pallywood trickery. And we've been told over and over again that we can't believe Palestinian complaints that Shin Bet tortures them because--well, because they are Palestinians. Now the right is complaining with big crocodile tears that the Shin Bet is an evil organization because (gasp), it uses torture. Or more specifically, it is applying its techniques against Jews. What the right has inadvertently done is validate Palestinian complaints that Shin Bet uses torture against them. For if you believe that Shin Bet ONLY uses real torture against Jews while giving Palestinians the comfy chair, you are in LaLa land.
It is very hard to muster much sympathy for the right-wing when torture visits them when they are so happy to cover up or excuse torture against Palestinians. It's called Karma. This is what they have built up. Now they are reaping what they have sown.
Of course, I hope torture against EVERYONE is stopped. But so long as Shin Bet tortures suspected Palestinian terrorists, then it is only fair for suspected Jewish terrorists to get a taste of their medicine as well.
Thanks for the link, Mark. I see the officer behind this was suspended. Now, whether he was suspended for threatening to gas innocent civilians of for admitting he was part of an "occupation army", I don't know. I do know that he would not have been suspended had this not been caught on video. Makes you wonder how much crap Israeli forces get away with because it isn't caught on video.
In a previous post I expressed surprise that that the IDF would refer to themselves as "occupation forces" and I susggested this MIGHT be an indication that the video was fake. I have now read another account--and even the Palestinians who were there were surprised that they used that term.
After reading the account on MiddleEastEye I am now convinced this is not a fake. If the Palestinians had tried to fake the video, they would have known enough not to put the words "occupation forces" into the mouths of the IDF. I am convinced this is real... and shocking.
Israel has the most moral army in the world??? My ass.
I'm not sure if this is real. Would the Israeli army refer to itself as an "occupation force"? I don't think so. . . .
Of course, if the IDF is VERY clever, maybe they would refer to themselves that way. After all, if they DID refer to themselves as "occupation forces" they would get their oppressive message across to the Palestinians and provide plausible deniability that they were behind it. They could have their way with the Palestinians and get away with it as Habarists cry out "Pallywood" and deny that the IDF was behind it.
I'm not saying this is Pallywood fakery. And I'm not saying it is authentic. I just don't know. What I do know is that there are enough other incidents of IDF thuggery on video that I wouldn't play up one as questionable as this.
Almost immediately after the Six Day War, Israel's Foreign Ministry asked international law expert Theodor Meron for his opinion on the legality of settlements in the "Administered Territories". He wrote a Top Secret Memo that concluded:
"My conclusion is that civilian settlement in the administered territories contravenes the explicit provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention."
He also wrote another memo that concluded that housing demolition similarly violated the Fourth Geneva Convention.
Much credit should go to Israeli historian Gershom Gorenberg who discovered the first Meron memo. I don't know if he was the one who discovered the second one, but he has been instrumental in letting the world know about their existence.
And they are doing it today--all in order to put a halt to the Iran Deal.
And they would be right if Jews in in Germany and the Warsaw Ghetto commanded the most powerful military in the region, backed by 100 nuclear weapons, backed by the most powerful military country in the world.
Of course it is a ridiculous analogy. And those who make it are only trivializing the memory of the Holocaust and its victims. Shame on them.
Maybe this is a questions the Russians should have asked BEFORE they decided to help elect Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/russian-propaganda-effort-helped-spread-fake-news-during-election-experts-say/2016/11/24/793903b6-8a40-4ca9-b712-716af66098fe_story.htm
These are the first cracks in the iceberg of extremism. These cracks would not have been possible had reformists not won in the elections, and reformists would not have won the elections had AIPAC and American hardliners like Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton gotten their way and trashed the deal.
Iran's population skews young. As the under 35 crowd matures and the old hardliners die off, we are likely to see Iran evolve into a relatively more liberal society. The moderates will continue gaining power--unless we do something stupid like elect Cruz or Trump and trash the nuclear deal and treat Iran like an evil empire. That, more than anything else, will empower hardliners and delay Iran's evolution for many years to come.
If stupidity were a weapon then Tawfik Hamid would be a one-man army who could conquer the world.
Juan, you wrote
"The Israeli far right, which is in power, appears to think that it will be possible simply to transfer the rebellious Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt. But Egypt won’t permit it, and can prevent it."
Actually, there may be more to it than that, given the Egyptian government's skittishness over being tied openly to Israel. Take a look at this story from the Jerusaelm Post
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Report-Egypt-cancels-scheduled-meeting-with-Netanyahu-444826
Egyptian officials cancelled a meeting with Netanyahu scheduled to be held in Cairo after Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz announced that Egypt had followed Israel's request to flood and collapse Hamas tunnels. Al-Sisi knows that cooperation with Israel is unpopular with Egyptians, and he's scared out of his skin that he'll be painted as a collaborator. If Israel tries to export Palestinians to Egypt, and if al-Sisi is seen as collaborating in this, a popular uprising could jeopardize his government. I'm not exactly sure what will replace his government if it is swept away, but I can guarantee you Israel won't like it. If Israel tries to transfer Palestinians to Egypt it may well add to instability in the region.
The Saudis will be playing a dangerous game if they keep the prices low long enough to bring Russia to its knees. If the Russians are truly feeling desperate, they might find some sort of excuse to attack Saudi Arabia, particularly its oil fields. They may make something up over an incident in Syria. Or if an unexplained explosion happens on Russian soil, they may claim that Saudi Wahabism influenced Chechens to do it. Of course, these are transparent, BS excuses. Maybe they'll think of something better. But they will be looking for SOME reason, ANY reason to justify an attack. After all, a LOT more will be at stake for them then anything involving the Crimea.
Ten or 20 years ago that would have meant a high probability of triggering a hot war with the U.S. But would we really go to war with Russia over Saudi Arabia now? Would protecting Saudi Arabia still be in our vital interests? We no longer need their oil. Americans in the oil and gas industry would probably cheer on an attack. There is a case to be made that we would be better off if they weren't funding madrasas around the world to spread their Wahabism. And very few Americans love the Saudi government or their beheadings.
I'm sure we would condemn an attack. And we'll probably slap on some more sanctions. But the Russians may calculate the revenue they'll receive when the price of oil spikes will exceed any penalty imposed through new sanctions.
America does have its credibility at stake if we don't defend the Saudis. But if I were Saudi Arabia, I wouldn't count on the U.S. fighting against Russia. If I were the Saudis, I'd be watching Russian cash reserves very carefully, and I'd lower my oil output in order to raise the price of oil if their reserves become dangerously low.
Thank you for this informative article. There seems to be one small problem.
I don't see the graph described in the paragraph below.
"The chart below is a useful guide to how production costs stack up as production heads towards 100m barrels a day (which is pretty much where we are now). Focus on the blue square in the bottom left, which shows onshore Middle East production costs at as little as US$10 a barrel, while US shale (the purple block) can come in at more than US$70."
Thanks, David. I was unaware of this and I find this information very useful. It's interesting to see that President Ezer Weizman called him "one of the greatest figures in the life of the Jewish people and the State of Israel in recent generations" Unfortunately, today a significant number of Israelis would probably spit on his grave.
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/19/obituaries/yeshayahu-leibowitz-91-iconoclastic-israeli-thinker.html
I really hope they include the Meron Memo as a supporting document in their lawsuit.
In 1967, soon after the Six Day War, Israel's Foreign Ministry asked their lawyer, Theodor Meron for his opinion on whether settling in the "administered territories" would violate international law. Meron was a Holocaust survivor who had graduated with a doctorate in international law from Harvard.
Meron wrote a Top Secret memo that concluded that "civilian settlement in the administered territories contravenes the explicit provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention."
Israel may claim that what it is doing in the West Bank is legal because it is not bound to follow Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. However, the U.S. IS (at least theoretically) committed to following it.
By granting tax exempt status to organizations that are dedicated to violating the Geneva Convention, the U.S. is aiding and abetting those who would violate OUR commitment and obligation to international law-- a law WHICH ISRAEL'S OWN LAWYER said was violated by the actions of these organizations.
This tax-exempt status must fall.
To read the Meron memo, see
https://www.soas.ac.uk/lawpeacemideast/resources/file48485.pdf
To read more about Theodor Meron and his memo, see
http://themessinglink.com/Meron
We've been hearing for years from right wingers that whenever Palestinians capture settlers attacking Palestinians or their property on video, it is just Pallywood trickery. And we've been told over and over again that we can't believe Palestinian complaints that Shin Bet tortures them because--well, because they are Palestinians. Now the right is complaining with big crocodile tears that the Shin Bet is an evil organization because (gasp), it uses torture. Or more specifically, it is applying its techniques against Jews. What the right has inadvertently done is validate Palestinian complaints that Shin Bet uses torture against them. For if you believe that Shin Bet ONLY uses real torture against Jews while giving Palestinians the comfy chair, you are in LaLa land.
It is very hard to muster much sympathy for the right-wing when torture visits them when they are so happy to cover up or excuse torture against Palestinians. It's called Karma. This is what they have built up. Now they are reaping what they have sown.
Of course, I hope torture against EVERYONE is stopped. But so long as Shin Bet tortures suspected Palestinian terrorists, then it is only fair for suspected Jewish terrorists to get a taste of their medicine as well.
Thanks for the link, Mark. I see the officer behind this was suspended. Now, whether he was suspended for threatening to gas innocent civilians of for admitting he was part of an "occupation army", I don't know. I do know that he would not have been suspended had this not been caught on video. Makes you wonder how much crap Israeli forces get away with because it isn't caught on video.
In a previous post I expressed surprise that that the IDF would refer to themselves as "occupation forces" and I susggested this MIGHT be an indication that the video was fake. I have now read another account--and even the Palestinians who were there were surprised that they used that term.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/watch-israeli-soldiers-threaten-bethlehem-refugee-camp-over-loudspeaker-1147215543
After reading the account on MiddleEastEye I am now convinced this is not a fake. If the Palestinians had tried to fake the video, they would have known enough not to put the words "occupation forces" into the mouths of the IDF. I am convinced this is real... and shocking.
Israel has the most moral army in the world??? My ass.
http://themessinglink.com/MostMoralArmy2
I'm not sure if this is real. Would the Israeli army refer to itself as an "occupation force"? I don't think so. . . .
Of course, if the IDF is VERY clever, maybe they would refer to themselves that way. After all, if they DID refer to themselves as "occupation forces" they would get their oppressive message across to the Palestinians and provide plausible deniability that they were behind it. They could have their way with the Palestinians and get away with it as Habarists cry out "Pallywood" and deny that the IDF was behind it.
I'm not saying this is Pallywood fakery. And I'm not saying it is authentic. I just don't know. What I do know is that there are enough other incidents of IDF thuggery on video that I wouldn't play up one as questionable as this.
Almost immediately after the Six Day War, Israel's Foreign Ministry asked international law expert Theodor Meron for his opinion on the legality of settlements in the "Administered Territories". He wrote a Top Secret Memo that concluded:
"My conclusion is that civilian settlement in the administered territories contravenes the explicit provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention."
He also wrote another memo that concluded that housing demolition similarly violated the Fourth Geneva Convention.
For more background information on Meron, see
http://themessinglink.com/Meron
Meron's opinion on settlements
https://www.soas.ac.uk/lawpeacemideast/resources/file48485.pdf
Meron's memo on blasting homes and deportation
http://www.hamoked.org/files/2015/1159122_eng.pdf
"Israel Knew All Along That Settlements, Home Demolitions Were Illegal" by Gershom Gorenberg
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:NvPgPZ38kCsJ:www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.657167+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Much credit should go to Israeli historian Gershom Gorenberg who discovered the first Meron memo. I don't know if he was the one who discovered the second one, but he has been instrumental in letting the world know about their existence.
Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters have been constantly complaining that this is 1938 and Iran is Germany. He did it in 2006
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/1,7340,L-3341946,00.html
And they are doing it today--all in order to put a halt to the Iran Deal.
And they would be right if Jews in in Germany and the Warsaw Ghetto commanded the most powerful military in the region, backed by 100 nuclear weapons, backed by the most powerful military country in the world.
Of course it is a ridiculous analogy. And those who make it are only trivializing the memory of the Holocaust and its victims. Shame on them.