Poll Shows Mixed Results for Bush
Highlights of the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on Bush and Iraq. It is a very small poll with a whopping plus or minus %5 percent margin of error, but presumably the errors should all run the same way, so it does tell us something.
Does Bush have a plan that will achieve victory for the US in Iraq?
Yes: 41%; No: 55%
How has Bush handled the Iraq War?
Well: 44%; Poorly: 54%
Can a democratic government in Iraq be established that won't be overthrown?
Likely: 47%; Unlikely: 49%
Will Iraq be able to prevent terrorists from using their country as a base of operations?
Yes: 33%; No: 63% (!!!)
But then 48 percent said that the war will make the US safer from terrorism in the long run. (43 percent said no.) I guess the item above is short to medium term.
I interpret this poll as fairly good news for Bush. His base still thinks he is doing a good job. A big majority think the Iraq war will prevent terrorism in the long run, though with a lot of short term dangers. About half think Iraq can be stood up as a democratic regime. Although a majority think Bush is doing a bad job in Iraq and hasn't a clue how to achieve victory, it isn't a really big majority and the Red States seem still to be with him.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/01/2005 12:10:00 AM
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5 Comments:
44% think that Bush has handled the Iraq war well? What is in the water in America?
However, it's not so good news for him that the poll seems to indicate that just about everybody has an opinion on these questions-- people are aware if what's going on, and of the people who are aware, plenty aren't at all happy about it.
Part of the base will always resist changing their minds-- they will totally ignore any considerations that should call for them to at least rethink the issues before remaining settled with the same conclusion. But what those people think doesn't matter as much as what the reasonable portion in the "middle" of American politics thinks.
What's significant is if the poll results hint that Bush is in danger of losing more of those people in the middle.
I agree that this is not terribly bad news for Bush. However in year 2005 reality as framed by the media, where everything has to be dumbed down to a simplified "up or down," cnn.com's big headline is:
"Poll: Most doubt Bush has plan for Iraq victory"
Bush may have brought some of this on himself by repeating the "victory" formula rather than the relying upon milestones. It is certainly ironic given that the president is himself given to a simplistic black and white world view.
How can any thinking person seriously consider Bush's base as anything other than funny ?
How can not you achieve victory in a war other than turning all the emeny's land into a parking lot. If that is not done, you can only lose. You will be in a fight until you leave.
Thus, there is only one way to handle a war. Go all in or not at all. Every life lost is wasted. Clinton had it correctly, hit them from the air. How are they going to fight back? With taxi cabs and 7-11s?
Any goverment can be overthrown. A Denocratic goverment in that area would be the easiest to change. Why do think the madman ruled as he did?
Kcjesq
These polls are always flawed and the questions are always asked in ways to shape an editorial story.
One question that should be asked of Americans is "Should Bush step up the war in Iraq?"
The poll numbers don't truthfully reflect concerns about the President's handling of the war. There are many who believe that the military should be much more aggressive in the fight. But you won't see that in a poll.
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