Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Massive Campaign of Violence Kills 68, Wounds Dozens;
Bush Says Guerrillas Marginalized


A horrific day unfolded in Iraq on Wednesday, with a massive bomb at a funeral, a daring raid that destroyed fuel tankers, and deadly bombings and shootings all over the center-north of the country, even reaching into the south.

President Bush's and Vice President Cheney's recent pronouncements do not seem to me to fit very well with the Iraqi reality they say they are describing.

"Those who want to stop the progress of freedom are becoming more and more marginalized." -Bush 1/04/06.

Al-Zaman/ AFP/ Reuters [Ar.]: In Miqdadiyah (60 mi. N.E. of the capital), a guerrilla wearing a suicide bomb belt detonated it at a the funeral of a relative of an official from the Shiite fundamentalist Dawa Party. (Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari is from Dawa, a component of the victorious United Iraqi Alliance). He killed 37 mourners and wounded 84. Iraqi police sealed off the city in hopes of capturing the group behind the attack.

Reuters reports:



' NEAR BAGHDAD - Gunmen ambushed a convoy of 60 fuel tankers on a road just north of Baghdad, destroying 20 and killing a driver and three members of the convoy's security team, police and oil officials said. A group called the Islamic Army in Iraq claimed the attack without giving details. The Oil Ministry gave a different account, saying only one tanker was destroyed, by a roadside bomb.'

(Al-Hayat says that the guerrillas had planned out a sophisticated rocket attack on the convoy, and that they destroyed three tankers completely and inflicted substantial damage on 20 others. The convoy had been intended by the government to help alleviate the gasoline crisis in the capital. An internet posting claiming to be from the guerrillas said they had hit it because it was part of the "Occupation.")



""In January 2006, the mission is to continue to hand over more and more territory and more and more responsibility to Iraqi forces . . . - Bush"

Al-Zaman / AFP [Ar.]: Police wounded 11 protesters in the southern city of Nasiriyah on Wednesday, firing live ammunition into a civilian crowd. Hhundreds of unemployed young men mounted a demonstration downtown, protesting the lack of work and the unfulfilled promises of local officials before the Dec. 15 elections to increase slots for recruits into the Iraq army. The officials, from the (Shiite) United Iraqi Alliance, the chief party in parliament, were trying to get reelected. The poor in Iraq are desperate in part because of the recent tripling of the price of fuel (at the insistence of the International Monetary Fund). Nasiriyah is among the poorest provinces in Iraq. No large-scale reconstruction projects were sited there, just a few programs to improve services that generated employment only for a few hundred men. In the past two weeks the price of transportation has doubled, and food and consumer goods have become more expensive. Government-subsidized food supplies have dwindled in quantity and quality, and Iraqis are complaining. When the unemployed men showed up Wednesday demanding the promised jobs, an official came out and said there were none. The crowd turned ugly and began throwing rocks at the governor's headquarters and at the security forces, and the police began firing over their heads. When they did not disperse, the police fired live ammunition into the civilian crowd, wounding 11. Three policemen were injured in the melee.

Al-Zaman: In Baqubah, a roadside bomb targetting an army convoy wounded an Iraqi soldier and a civilian

A car bomb in Kadhimiyah, northeast Baghdad, killed 5 and wounded 15, including both police and civilians. It was placed so as to hurt police at the Najda station.

Reuters reports:


'BAGHDAD - Two police commandos were killed and nine others wounded when mortar rounds landed on their checkpoint in western Baghdad, a hospital source said . . .

[The Arab press says that the casualties derived from a running street battle between the Lightning Brigade of police commandos and guerrillas, not from just a mortar attack.]

LATIFIYA - An Iraqi soldier was killed and two wounded when a bomb went off near their patrol in Latifiya, in an area dubbed the "Triangle of Death" south of Baghdad, an army source said . . .

ISKANDARIYA - Two Iraqi policemen were wounded on Tuesday when a makeshift bomb went off near their patrol in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.
'

BAGHDAD - At least eight people were killed and 12 wounded in a car bomb attack in southern Baghdad, police and hospital sources said. The car was parked close to a busy commercial market in the Doura district, they said . . .

[Al-Hayat says that the bombing was targetting police commandos operating near the market.]

MAHAWIL - The bodies of two people, bound, gagged and shot dead, were found in Mahawil, about 75 km west of Baghdad, police said . . .

[Al-Hayat says that these two were Iraqi soldiers.]


"As we see more of these Iraqi forces in the lead, we will be able to continue with our stated strategy that says as Iraqi forces stand up, we will stand down."- Bush

Al-Zaman reports that the police chief of Baghdad, Abdul Razzaq al-Samarra'i, has been removed from office while on pilgrimage to Mecca. Mu'in al-Kadhemi, the elected governor of Baghdad province, accused the police force in the capital of being incompetent and of neglecting their security responsibilities.

"As the Iraqi army gains strength and experience, and as the political process advances, we'll be able to decrease troop levels without losing our capacity to defeat the terrorists." - Cheney 1/2/05.

Al-Hayat reports that [Ar.] the reason the Rejection Front of Sunni and secular parties is agitating to change the results of the elections is that they are hoping to gain at least 6 seats, so as jointly to hold at least one more than 1/3 of the seats in parliament. If they can gain 93 seats, and can maintain their unity, they could prevent the election of a president and so hold up the formation of a government unless the other parties gave them what they wanted. It is in other words an attempt to put themselves in a position to blackmail the Shiites and the Kurds. What they probably want is a Sunni Arab or secular vice president who can be relied on to veto legislation mainly benefitting the religious Shiites or the Kurds. (Each member of the three-person presidential council will have a veto for the next 4 years.) The whole political process in Iraq could grind to a halt under these circumstances. Who knows if a government could ever be formed? Or if it would ever be able to accomplish anything, with each sectarian or ethnic president vetoing anything his group did not like?

Al-Zaman reports that police in Baghdad are stepping up attempts to locate the kidnapped sister of the Minister of the Interior (sort of like the US FBI chief).

Guerrillas in the Baghdad neighborhood of Amiriyah assassinated Rahim Ali al-Sudani, the general director in the Petroleum Ministry, on Wednesday. His son was also killed in the attack.

Reuters reports,


'BAGHDAD - Two guards of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of one of Iraq's most powerful Shi'ite political parties, were shot dead on Tuesday while attending a funeral in southern Baghdad, police said.'


"There'll still be violence," Mr. Bush said, "and there'll still be some who believe that they can affect the political outcome of Iraq through violent means. ... We're going to stay on the offense against these -- 'we' being coalition forces as well as the Iraqi forces."

Reuters reports:


KERBALA - At least three people were wounded when a car bomb exploded in the Shi'ite holy city of Kerbala, police said. The target of the attack was unclear. . .

KIRKUK - Two civilians were killed and two others wounded when a bomb exploded targeting a U.S. patrol, police said . . . "


And "Coalition" and Iraqi forces don't seem to have been able to do anything about it, despite Bush's pledge. In fact, that bombing in Kirkuk is said to have destroyed a humvee, which suggests there may have been US military casualties not yet announced.

8 Comments:

At 4:44 AM, Blogger Steve said...

"President Bush's and Vice President Cheney's recent pronouncements do not seem to me to fit very well with the Iraqi reality they say they are describing."

I don't think that they really care about the actual reality on the ground. To them, it is all about the reality that they can create in their speeches and propaganda. It always has been, but their reality and the actual reality continue to diverge.

 
At 11:06 AM, Blogger dancewater said...

And if you thought yesterday was bad......

Jan 5 (Reuters) - Two suicide bombers killed 120 people and wounded more than 200 in the Iraqi cities of Kerbala and Ramadi on Thursday in Iraq's bloodiest day for four months.

Seven U.S. soldiers were also blown up in two separate attacks; another three bombs exploded in Baghdad, two of them detonated by suicide bombers; and insurgents sabotaged an oil pipeline near the northern city of Kirkuk, causing a huge fire.




And so the bloody march of folly continues............

 
At 11:42 AM, Blogger dancewater said...

totally off topic, but I think this is important information:

THE CIA AND IRAN: Bush Insists that Iran Must Not Be Allowed to Develop Nuclear Weapons. So Why, Six Years Ago, Did the CIA Give the Iranians Blueprints to Build a Bomb?

Operation Merlin has been one of the most closely guarded secrets in the Clinton and Bush administrations. It's not clear who originally came up with the idea, but the plan was first approved by Clinton. After the Russian scientist's fateful trip to Vienna, however, the Merlin operation was endorsed by the Bush administration, possibly with an eye toward repeating it against North Korea or other dangerous states.
Several former CIA officials say that the theory behind Merlin - handing over tainted weapon designs to confound one of America's adversaries - is a trick that has been used many times in past operations, stretching back to the cold war. But in previous cases, such Trojan horse operations involved conventional weapons; none of the former officials had ever heard of the CIA attempting to conduct this kind of high-risk operation with designs for a nuclear bomb. The former officials also said these kind of programmes must be closely monitored by senior CIA managers in order to control the flow of information to the adversary. If mishandled, they could easily help an enemy accelerate its weapons development. That may be what happened with Merlin.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1678220,00.html


(I am always looking for ways that we defeat ourselves by being too clever by half. It happens all the time.)

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger John Howley said...

What else can "Dear Leader" Bush say? If he acknowledged that the Baathist-led insurgency is successful, then he would have to "do something" like send more troops or bombs or worse. He doesn't want to do that. So, he will continue claiming victory while slipping sideways and hoping to change the subject. Meanwhile, U.S. interests are on the retreat elsewhere in the world -- something else he can't admit. Let's just hope that they -- the rest of the world -- go easy and don't gang up on us.

 
At 12:24 PM, Blogger SanJoseLady said...

We should not forget what is going on in Afghanistan either.

A teacher was beheaded in front of his family late Tuesday, an escalation of the Talibans efforts to keep girls from attending schools.

From the NYT article (http://tinyurl.com/bfbm8 ):

"Only the Taliban are against girls being educated," he told the news agency. There are only two working high schools in the whole province, and they are in the provincial capital, Qalat. Mr. Khushal said 100 of the Zabul's 170 registered schools have closed over the past two or three years because of security fears, mostly in outlying districts. Of Zabul's 35,000 students, only 2,700 are girls, he said.

In addition today a suicide bomber killed 10 people. Link to Reuters story: (http://tinyurl.com/9y3ou )

From the article:
Earlier on Thursday Afghan security forces blew up a car packed with explosives they believe was intended for an attack on U.S.-led forces in the southern town of Spin Boldak, which is also in Kandahar, on the Pakistani border, police said.

On Monday, a suicide attacker drove a car bomb into a convoy of foreign troops in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, wounding a U.S. soldier and an Afghan woman and a child.


Clearly neither Afghanistan nor Iraq are anywhere near "secure" and "Democratic," yet Bush continues to make statements that are anything but based on reality.

Yesterday Bush brought up Afghanistan and the NYT has this ( http://tinyurl.com/a7den ):

The president said Afghanistan, whose Taliban government was overthrown in the American-led military campaign following the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has been the scene of "steady progress on the road to democracy."

Girls in Afghanistan are still having problems attending schools, the drug trafficing is rising, and people are put on trial for publishing articles that are critical of Islam ( http://tinyurl.com/a7sg6 ):

Ali Mohaqiq Nasab, editor of the monthly magazine Haqooq-e-Zan (Women's Rights), was arrested in October and sentenced to two years in jail after complaints about his articles, in particular one which questioned Islamic punishments for crimes such as adultery.

Further down in the article is this:

Afghanistan is a conservative Islamic country. Under a revised March 2004 media law signed by President Hamid Karzai, content deemed insulting to Islam is banned. Penalties for contravening the law were left vaguely worded - leaving open the possibility of punishment in accordance with Shariah.

Afghanistan is clearly not an open, democratic nation, rather it is a nation still struggling to become a somewhat moderate Theocracy. Bush has used the word "democracy" so often that all meaning associated with it has been lost.

 
At 1:00 PM, Blogger Don Quixote said...

"Those who want to stop the progress of freedom are becoming more and more marginalized."

Quotes like these appear to be tailor made to appear in a history book some time in the future. Primary resources to illustrate how bad Dear Leader really was.

 
At 4:31 PM, Blogger Jeff said...

Not to misunderestimate W, but he must mean "energized" when he says "marginalized". Yeah, that's it!

Jesus wept.

 
At 10:20 AM, Blogger John Koch said...

Why the surge in violence now? Which of the following explanations would Prof. Cole say is the most plausible?

1) The Shia-Sunni talks have broken down. The Sunni leadership has decided that there will be no government, and has given the green light for resumption of the campaign.

2) The talks are going so well that the jihadists feel they must try to disrupt them regardless of the risk of a backlash from the Sunnis.

3) The negotiations are languishing and the Sunnis are using the jihadists to crank up some pressure to get things going again. The jihadists are happy to oblige, but in the hope that the pressure thus cranked up will blow the negotiations apart rather than move them along.

Is there really any objective way to chose between these disparate rationales? Is not historical explanation little more than an ouija game or a blundering act of faith?

The rise in violence has nothing to do with what Bush says or wants to believe. The tougher things get, the more the officer corps (80%+ GOP) will stick to their beloved Commander in Chief. The council of elders held this week was heavily weighted by "stay the course" loyalists (Laird, Schultz, etc). The spineless Democrats will oblige. K. Rove will craft some way to steer a GOP victory next November. Since Iraq will be messy, no matter what, the US elections will be won by those who evince "vision and values." W's words will still trumpet optimism, even if troop redeployments reveal a very different de facto assessment.

 

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