Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, March 13, 2006

80 Killed, over 200 Wounded in Black Sunday


Dawn estimates that mortar attacks and bombings in Iraq killed 80 persons on Sunday. Other sources suggest the number of wounded may exceed 200. Some 52 of the dead were killed by carbombings at markets in Shiite Sadr City, east Baghdad. The violence is aimed at provoking sectarian warfare, in hopes it would force the US out and pave the way for a coup by the guerrillas.


Courtesy KarbalaNews.net.

Al-Hayat interprets the attacks as a setback for Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Militia, which had announced that they would provide security in Sadr City.

Al-Zaman reports that the maneuverings of political blocs in Iraq during the past days did not produce any tangible resolution of the current crisis. Prime Ministerial candidate Ibrahim Jaafari attempted to reduce tensions by announcing that he is committed to the principle of federalism, rather than centralized government control.
The opening of parliament was moved up to Thursday, to avoid an overlap with the commemoration of the 40th day mourning period after the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Husayn, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.

After a meeting with Jalal Talabani, Ibrahim Jaafari held a press conference in which he remained committed to his candidacy for the post of prime minister. He said that the United Iraqi Alliance had elected him by party vote, and in parliamentary democracies, that is the way these things are settled. He did however attempt to mollify his Kurdish foes by reaffirming his commitment to all the articles of the constitution, one of which calls for a referendum in 2007 in Kirkuk, which the Kurds hope to win. The Kurdish politicians suspect that Jaafari is trying to figure out a way to keep them from getting oil-rich Kirkuk to join their provincial confederacy.

Adnan Mufti, the speaker of the Kurdistan regional parliament, told al-Hayat that he continued to suspect Jaafari of being unsympathetic to Kurdish states' rights vis-a-vis the federal government.

Three years after the US military conquered Baghdad Airport, it is still not secure. US Embassy personnel have been forbidden to fly civilian airliners in and out of it after explosives were discovered there. And they still do those corkscrew landings, just in case there is a guerrilla around with a shoulder-held missile.

[Ar.] Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports that the Iraqi Labor Ministry has announced that unemployment in the capital has reached an unprecedented 132,000. Persistent unemployment is dangerous since it plays into the guerrilla insurgency. The unemployed can be given small stipends to join up, and their economic despair makes them easier to convince. But not that so much of Baghdad's economy must be in the marginal sectors (peddling, smuggling, etc.) that I'm not sure what the statistic above really means.

SA also reports a study that examines the negative effect of the current situation on Iraqi women. They are 62% of the population, and face the practical effects of the unemployment and poverty mentioned above, which contributes to higher rates of divorce and abandonment, as well as of prostitution.

The Bush administration keeps crowing about having liberated Iraqi women. It is to weep.

Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor give a whole host of reasons for which Donald Rumsfeld should be fired and if possible put on trial. They review the horrible mistakes made during the 2003 Iraq War, in which Rumsfeld showed repeated incomprehension that the Fedayee Saddam were getting up a guerrilla war against the US forces, and did bizarre things like cancelling the deployment of 16,000 troops and flying Ahmad Chalabi with 575 unarmed "freedom fighters" into the war theater, to give the latter a Karzai-like leg up in the race to become ruler of Iraq.

Revisionist historians of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but Bush administration good will. Two historians dispute Bush's and Cheney's lies about how the Iraq War began.

For those with strong stomachs, here are the photos from Iraq that the American news organizations mostly decline to print. Warning: graphic and disturbing, just as you would expect from a war.

After spending $40 billion a year on intelligence, the American public discovers that some Chicago reporters with no more than an internet connection can turn up the names of 2600 CIA operatives, many of them supposedly covert, along with internal Agency phone numbers and the names of dummy air charter coporations used by the CIA.

13 Comments:

At 7:59 AM, Blogger Frank said...

"The default in the Quran is therefore not aggressive warfare, something the book repeatedly condemns. Warfare is permitted in self-defense. But the default is to be at peace with those who are at peace with you." JC -IC 10/3/6

$40 billion spent on intelligence seems to have failed to find the verses in the Cow Sura:

"God loves not the aggressors. And slay them wherever you come upon them, and expel them from where they expelled you. persecution is more grievous than slaying."

"Fight them, till there is no persecution and the religion is God's; then if they give over, there shall be no enmity save for evildoers."

(Arberry's translation)

We who were brought up as Catholics were discouraged from reading the Bible in case we got the interpretation wrong. Does the same hold true for the Koran?

Perhaps someone should point out the above to the people who are thinking of doing something unpleasant in Iran.

If all else fails, read the instructions!

 
At 3:26 PM, Blogger dancewater said...

Another report about Brits acting undercover in Basra to blow stuff up.... item posted in Today in Iraq comments section. Link was not posted.


That is the second report in Basra media of the Brits trying to start up sectarian strife by blowing stuff up.

true? who knows.....


Considering this gang helped Saddam in his war in the 80's, helped Allawi with his car bombings in Baghdad in the 90's....

well who knows?

 
At 4:32 PM, Blogger Cervantes said...

This is worth the attention of all Americans (so far the U.S. corporate media has ignored it):

"After three months in Baghdad, Ben Griffin told his commander that he was no longer prepared to fight alongside American forces. Ben Griffin told commanders that he thought the Iraq war was illegal. He said he had witnessed "dozens of illegal acts" by US troops, claiming they viewed all Iraqis as "untermenschen" - the Nazi term for races regarded as sub-human."

You can read a full, and disturbing interview with Sgt. Griffin here.

 
At 6:00 PM, Blogger Spin proof said...

Thank you for the Rumsfeld errors link. However, I think that the analysis is flawed.

1) The advancing US troops could not have cleared the resistance near Karbala because they were hiding among with the population.

2) The role of the Fedayeen is overestimated. These were Qusai's thugs, with no public support or proper military training. They were interested in bravado rather than effectiveness and most were killed or captured.

To understand what happened we must appreciate the thinking of the ordinary Iraqis at that time. Support for the invasion was overwhelming although the USA was and still is considered the arch enemy of the people of Iraq!

The rationale is simple: the people were the victims of both Saddam and the USA. Let our enemies fight each other. At least we will get rid of the muredous sanctions.

The crucial issue then became the intentions of the USA: if they want to colonize the country then they will have to pay not only for the invasion, but also for the sanctions and the earlier support for Saddam.

The amateurs Bush and Blair had absolutely no doubt they could con the Iraqis with their legendary spin. The stupid Bush declared:"we will stay as long as necessary, not a day longer" (I am not saying necessary for what, Amazing huh?) At the same tens of thousands of Iraqis were employed to work on giant US military bases.

Then came the order to dissolve the armed forces. It must be remebered that the way it was done was intended to cause maximum humiliation to break the will of the people of Iraq. It was not announced by Iraqis, but by Bremer who also told 0.4M soldiers that there will be no pension or severance pay.

The Likudist were running amock in the Green Zone: 1) Israel was to have Iraqi oil though a pipeline 2) Middle Eastern companies could only get reconstruction work through a partnership with Isralis 3) 100% foriegn ownership of Iraqi assets is allowed, basically a Fire Sale on a par with the great Russian robbery.

You see, the Americans manufactured the insurgency during the first days and weeks. Had they internationalized the occupation none of this would have happened. Had they refrained from looting the country and forcing their will on the people, they would have gained the goodwill and even the friendship of the Iraqis despite the invasion.

So, it was not the military. It was the leaders.

 
At 6:19 PM, Blogger Mark said...

Professor Cole,

Do you think a large portion of the population in Iraq thinks we are there to help them? Because Bush and the soldiers sure do. How can this disconnect be overcome?

 
At 9:11 PM, Blogger Mary M said...

Hello,

Mary from Canada once again. One of the most startling things I read in your blog today concerned the situation of Iraqi women - not so much their current status: war, economic degradation, and chaos affect the most helpless parts of society the most, generally women and children.

What truly startled me was the demographic statistic: 62% of the Iraqi population is female!!! I thought perhaps it was a misprint, so I went to the SA link. I can't read Arabic, but I could see the two numbers - 38% and 62%. Is there a chance SA made an error?

If not this is both amazing and horrible (could I say I am shocked and awed?)! In North America, I believe, the ratios are about 49/51 in favour of women, reflecting the somewhat longer lifespans of females.

Typically, in very poor countries with wretched medical care, women are significantly outnumbered due to childbirth deaths and gender-related maladies.

But when men are significantly outnumbered, it means they are being slaughtered and/or subjected to serious attacks on their overall well-being. I believe the Soviet Union had a similar gender ratio after World War II.

Can you comment on this?

Mary Murphy

 
At 10:49 PM, Blogger EdoRiver said...

Prof Cole, In reference to the recent numbers killed and injured, can you again put this in equivalent terms to the US population. I know you have already done this in the past. Perhaps if you could provide the formula. I think this is good to remind ourselves of the proportions on a scale we are accostomed to "here".

 
At 11:03 PM, Blogger bugjah said...

Mark
the intended audience of Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rice, the generals and everyone else in the Bush admin has always been the US public ONLY. even Powell's disgraceful pre-war UN presentation was not aimed at convincing foreign governments or citizens of any foreign country (and it didn't) - it was only aimed at convincing the US public via the media. And that apparently worked reasonably well. the bush admin has since stuck to this basic game-plan. so when bush is told to say that the iraqi's know we are there to help them, the intended audience is not iraqi's (who know better), it is people in the US (many of whom don't, sadly).

 
At 11:18 PM, Blogger tbearjerr said...

Outrageously funny song “He Swapped the Bottle for the Bible.” --Found it at www.bushwhackerssite.com. The group is called “The Bushwhackers” and they have several more songs of parody for all the Bush bashers to enjoy out there. Visit the site if you want a good laugh and let me know if you have more info on these guys!

Thomas Garcia
tbearjerr@yahoo.com

 
At 3:51 AM, Blogger InplainviewMonitor said...

Iraqi radical Shiite leader blasts Rumsfeld

Radical Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr on Monday blasted US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for keeping US troops in Iraq while saying they would not be used in case of civil war.

“May God damn you. You said in the past that civil war would break out if you were to withdraw, and now you say that in case of civil war you won’t interfere,” Sadr told a news conference.

“What’s the point of you staying here if you can’t even protect or help people?” said the cleric who has long been opposed to the US presence in Iraq.

 
At 6:18 AM, Blogger Clive of the Islands said...

The pre-trial hearing of the British Special Services soldier, Malcolm Kendall-Smith, who refused to return to Iraq on the grounds of the illegality of the war, begins Wednesday.

"We will be arguing that he has no case to answer because, without a UN mandate, the invasion of Iraq was manifestly unlawful and any subsequent order was therefore unlawful," Kendall-Smith's lawyer, Justin Hugheston-Roberts, was quoted saying.

If Kendall-Smith is acquitted, the inference will be that British justice supports his assertion that the war is illegal.

Flt Lt Dr Kendall-Smith's lawyer, Justin Hugheston-Roberts, told BBC News that if his client was acquitted he would see it as a justification for his actions in not going to Iraq, but the "knock-on effect could be devastating across the world".

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger John Koch said...

Spin Proof writes: that "the Americans manufactured the insurgency during the first days and weeks" and and internationalized occupation could have prevented insurgency or looting. I doubt this. Had the US any choice, Iraqi forces would have fought head on, to be captured and disarmed. Instead, they melted away and retained most of the hand weapons and IED materials. Bush sought as much international participation as he could coax or buy. The EU and UN would not have supported more, and Iraqis had no love for either. Finally, no structure of occupation would have reconciled the Sunnis to submission under majority rule by Shia or regional independence of the Kurds.

Lynd and Cirra, the "revisionist and proud" duo, complain that 85% of US troops believe America invaded Iraq in response to Saddam's role in 9/11. No amount of scholarship or muck raking is likely to change this. Soldiers insist an honorable sanction for war. "Stupidity" or "deceit" is not much of an explanation and does not honor the fallen. Thus, future books on the war, if they are to sell, will leave the cause fuzzy or implicit: picture of burning towers, satanic picture of Saddam, picture of galant US troops liberating. Any written narrative will follow the proven formula of the late S. Ambrose: band of brothers out on a mission, vague causes, but brave and honorable in action. There won't be much market appetite for the "we wore the black hats" view. Neither is there an electoral reward. Karl can gloat and rub his hands. The 30% of the population that loves W unto death (cuz he's one o' us) need only be joined by another 21% that suspects betrayal by soft liberals, and--voilá--you've sew up the vote for 2006, 2008, and thereafter.

 
At 3:26 AM, Blogger InplainviewMonitor said...

Guardian's mea culpa

No, this is not some half-sane rant from freerepublic.com, neither it is a satire. One reasonable interpretation of what is going on is that, using paleo-Bolshevik language, GU repents before the New Labour for their old anti-war sins.

GU. Oliver Kamm. We were right to invade Iraq
With the advantage of three years of hindsight, politicians' failed predictions about Iraq make dispiriting reading. "Any war will cause a refugee crisis of huge proportions," insisted Charles Kennedy. Iraqis proved him wrong by distinguishing perfectly well between a war on tyranny and a war on them, and stayed put.
The notion that terrorism has been brought to Iraq uniquely by the west's overthrow of Saddam, who bankrolled it and was the most likely conduit for Islamist groups to obtain WMD, is astonishingly ahistorical.
We no longer have to bear one major risk: a psychopathic despot overcoming a porous sanctions regime, and using oil sales to pay for resumed WMD production. The absence of WMD was a huge intelligence failure; so it is fortunate that we are no longer reliant on Saddam's word.

 

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