The Beginning of a New War?
Will it Spill over on Iraq?
All hell broke loose on Wednesday in the Mideast, with a Hizbullah attack on the Israeli army and Israeli reprisals, and the Israeli dropping of a 500 pound bomb on Gaza. I roundly condemn Hizbullah's criminal and stupid attack on Israel and escalation of a crisis that is already harming ordinary Palestinians on a massive scale.
Likewise, the Beirut airport is not in south Lebanon and for the Israelis to bomb it and neighborhoods in south Beirut is a disproportionate use of force. The Israelis are actually talking about causing "pain to the Lebanese." That is despicable.
One thing is clear. This crisis will not leave the fabric of Lebanese politics untouched, and the danger of an unraveling is acute. And, it is clear that the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon has given an opening to Israeli hawks to invade Lebanese territory again. It will not be good for Israelis if Lebanon collapses into a failed state again.
Rejectionists on both sides are to blame. The Oslo Peace Process could have forestalled all this violence, as Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin understood. But on the Israeli side, the then Likud Party of Bibi Netanyahu and Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert derailed it. On the Palestinian side, Hamas rejected it. Had there been a peace process, prisoners would have been released in return for a cessation of hostilities, and there would have been no motivation to capture Israeli soldiers.
The lesson is that if you refuse to negotiate a peace, then you are likely to have to go on fighting a war.
I continue to worry that this outbreak of war in the Levant will exacerbate tensions in Iraq and get more US troops killed. Iraqi Sunnis generally sympathize with the Palestinians. And hard line Shiites like the Sadr Movement and the Mahdi Army are close to Hizbullah. Israel's wars could tip Iraq over into an unstoppable downward spiral.
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/13/2006 12:20:00 AM
Click to join Infoco
19 Comments:
Ironically, and in a most perverse way, the Hizbollah kidnappings may be the most salutary event of all the horrors of the past few weeks. The US and Europeans who find it so easy to turn a blind eye to the Gaza tragedy, will have a hard time ignoring Lebanon. Time to put the screws to Israel and work out a prisoner swap. Get Cpl Shalit and the IDF back home where they belong.
That's what it was all about right?
i wish you could have hyperlinked to the quote you made about Israeli's talking about causing "pain to the Lebanese". In the war on disinformation you are trying valiantly to fight, such references are crucial.
I continue to worry that this outbreak of war in the Levant will exacerbate tensions in Iraq and get more US troops killed.
Wasn't this supposed to work the other way round? Weren't we promised an improvement in the Israel Palestine conflict as one of the benefits of removing Saddam? Isn't this just another of the failed promises of the Iraq War?
The Israelis must be taking lessons from the Bush administration on asymmetrical warfare. If someone attacks you with box cutters, kill all the people who work in the box-cutter factory.
They are divided on the Lebanese, but at least the religious fanatics in Jerusalem and the religious fanatics hiding out in Pakistan can agree on one thing -- they hate lesbians. As a Houston Chronicle column reports,
>>In Israel, somebody has put out a flyer offering a reward to anyone who kills participants in a planned World Gay Pride parade scheduled in Jerusalem next month. It includes instructions on constructing fire bombs. The police are expected to issue a report on whether the parade will be security risk shortly, at which point the government will decide if it will be allowed.
If ever there was a place where people should understand why solving your problems by throwing bombs at people is a bad idea, it's Israel. But it gets worse - Rabbi Yehuda Levin promises that "there's going to be bloodshed - not just on that day, but for months afterward," if the government doesn't cancel the parade.
The web site of New York-based Levin's Jews for Morality includes articles telling Jews that they should be willing to die to drive infidels - oops, I mean gays - out of the holy land, and complaints that the "very secular Israeli Supreme Court" isn't enforcing religious law. Hmm, an extremist religious leader calling for violence unless people live under religious rules? Have we heard this before? Maybe somewhere not far from Jerusalem?<<
http://blogs.chron.com/bluebayou/2006/07/hit_and_run.html
Martin Indyk's recent analysis on Australian Broadcasting's Lateline seems to sum up Israel's thinking very well:
"Israel has a big problem. It has to deter further kidnappings. Otherwise there will be no end to this hostage-taking and demands for prisoner releases. So it's not so easy for the government to do a deal in these circumstances and I think what it is doing in Gaza is it will repeat in Lebanon - inflict such a painful price in Gaza and in southern Lebanon that the kidnappers will think twice before they try this kind of thing again."
I agree with Prof. Cole however - this kind of strategy is neither effective nor morally acceptable in the 21st C.
I am very curious if you think that the escalation in the Levant is simply another bid by the Iranians to further destabilize the Middle East in an attempt to get the US and its remaining allies to pull out of Iraq - at least - if not the Middle East entirely.
The News Hour had a couple of experts on the other night talking about the Iranian hand in the escalation of sectarian violence in Iraq. And then Iran played prominently in the News Hour discussion of the most recent ME violence last night.
I am a real neophyte on all of this but if it is true that Hezbollah had been planning the kidnappings for awhile it seems to me that the strategy is being coordinated. Test US capacity to respond to increased sectarian violence in Iraq - no capacity; so then test capacity of US to respond to kidnapping of Isralei soldier in Gaza - no capacity; so then test capacity of US to respond to heating up the Lebanese border with Israel - no capacity . . .
Thomas - I think Juan is talking about reports like this one at the irish examiner here .
from the article:
Mr Olmert said he held the Lebanese Government responsible for the two soldiers’ safety, and said Israel’s response “will be restrained, but very, very, very painful”.
see also, coverage in Ha'aretz.
besides the near-term consequences to lebanon which, god knows are bad enough, the longer-term damage to the recovering lebanese economy and tourist industry will be devastating... beirut was seeing a huge resurgence in its cultural life and cafe society, the tourists were coming back from all over europe, and it was resuming its historical place as a vibrant world capital... now...? wiped out in two days... outrageous...
http://takeitpersonally.blogspot.com/
I respectfully disagree with Prof. Cole vis a vis Lebanon turning into a failed state would be worse for israel. From israel's point of view, Lebanon already is a failed state, since hezbollah controls the south and acts as a "state within a state," as an ex-pat Lebanese analyst put it on CNN yesterday. Hezbollah has dozens if not hundreds of rockets aimed squarely at Israeli targets. The lebanese govt disavows hezbollah's actions but is powerless to stop them, despite being supported by UN security council resolutions, and even has hezbollah cabinet members. I'm not saying an escalation would be good for lebanon or the lebanese people; what i am saying is that from Israel's point of view, a failed lebanese state would change little if anything.
I do agree that there is a good side to Hezbollah kidnappings, but only in that they reveal what israel actually has to deal with on both fronts. Whatever it does -- evacuations (from lebanon and gaza), releases prisoners, makes peace offers, etc., there is a solid rejectionist front (hezbollah after all gets its marching orders and support from "wipe israel off the map" iran)that will always find a pretext to attack, inviting "disproportionate" israeli retalation.
Finally, I fail to understand how a "painful response" is disproportionate to the painful killings, rocket attacks and kidnappings that have occurred. Is Prof. Cole et al suggesting that when Hizbollah launches rockets and kidnaps soldiers, the israeli response must be to kidnap the same number of hezbollah and shoot out exactly the same number of rockets? There is such a thing as deterrence, and as flawed as the policy is, I suspect were it not implemented, the attacks would be far more frequent and far reaching.
Thanks for letting me comment.
Mr. York,
The comment was all over the news yesterday. For your information, here is a link to the AP quote:
JERUSALEM - Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Wednesday declared a Lebanese guerrilla attack on Israel's northern border to be "an act of war," and vowed that the Israeli response would be "very, very, very painful."
http://stlouis.ujcfedweb.org/content_display.html?ArticleID=187760
Your reply hits the heart of the matter without being an apologist for either side. I also wonder what a destabilization of Lebanon would mean as the first true crisis for the new Asad regime in Syria. They have managed to handle some serious dissent. But, Iraq in meltdown on one border and the other with a Lebanese crisis could prove very dangerous. I would to love to hear your insight.
I don't think this is a low-intensity civil war in Iraq, but the real thing. And yes, it's spilling out into the rest of the Near and Middle East.
"A U.N. statement said the team will urge all parties to exercise restraint." CNN report
A joke - no one in the region is listening and, even if they did, they wouldn't follow the UN's orders. It will be interesting to see what the Arab League has to say on Saturday.
And, it is clear that the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon has given an opening to Israeli hawks to invade Lebanese territory again.
Three cheers for the Cedar Revolution. Didn't conservative pundits claim that would usher in a new era of freedom and democracy in the Middle East?
Norah O'Donnell is hosting Hardball tonight and is having a grand time calling for action against Iran, who is taking a lot of the blame for everything bad that happens in the middle east.
If this just leads to extra pressure exerted from a united WTO that may not be too bad, but it could also be perceived as a rally call to action against Iran.
And Bush's highly proclaimed new and more patient policy towards Iran would be touted as proof that we didn't rush in this time.
Wasn't this supposed to work the other way round? Weren't we promised an improvement in the Israel Palestine conflict as one of the benefits of removing Saddam?
The invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with “improving” the Israel/Palestine situation. The purpose of the invasion was to prevent the emergence of a Palestinian state. You don’t believe me? Just read the PNAC papers; the strategy is provided there in black and white. The ultimate goal was to isolate the Palestinians and impose the “Palestine is Jordan” solution on the Palestinian population in the West Bank.
at least the religious fanatics in Jerusalem and the religious fanatics hiding out in Pakistan
If we are going to talk about religious fanatics, let’s talk about the Christian Right here in the U.S., whose primary goal is to bring about the complete destruction of the world. Why? Because that event would bring about the coming of Jesus. But before they achieve that goal, they won’t be content until gays and lesbians are stripped of what little rights they have in this country.
I think what it is doing in Gaza is it will repeat in Lebanon - inflict such a painful price in Gaza and in southern Lebanon that the kidnappers will think twice before they try this kind of thing again."
If we are going to oppose kidnapping, then that opposition should apply to ALL parties in the Middle East, which also includes Israel. Our so-called “liberal" press doesn’t inform us that right now that Israel is holding 9,000 Palestinians, including 350 children, in their jails. Many of these Palestinians have NOT been charged with a crime. Aren’t these Palestinians being held hostage by Israel? Either put them on trial or release them.
I am very curious if you think that the escalation in the Levant is simply another bid by the Iranians to further destabilize the Middle East in an attempt to get the US and its remaining allies to pull out of Iraq
George W. Bush is Iran’s best friend. His invasion practically handed the predominately Shitte Iraq to the Iranians.
I respectfully disagree with Prof. Cole vis a vis Lebanon turning into a failed state would be worse for israel.
In my opinion--not that it means anything to anyone--I believe Israel’s main purpose is to institute regime change in Syria. Even though Syrian troops are not in Lebanon anymore, Syria still plays an important role in Lebanese politics. Attacking Lebanon is an indirect attack on Syria.
Is Prof. Cole et al suggesting that when Hizbollah launches rockets and kidnaps soldiers, the israeli response must be to kidnap the same number of hezbollah and shoot out exactly the same number of rockets?
Here is another point our “liberal” media fails to tell us about. Since Hamas came to power, Israel has launched 6,000 missiles in Gaza. Yes, 6,000 missiles, not rag tag homemade bombs like the ones Palestinians make. How many Israelis have been killed by Palestinian bombs? From the last reports I have read, the answer is zero. (Prof. Cole, do you care to confirm?). How many Palestinians have been killed by missile fire? Last I have heard, several dozens have been killed, the most notorious case being Israeli shelling on a Gaza beach, killing all members of the same family, except one little girl. In fact, the militants have stated that the kidnapping was retaliation for the beach tragedy; though now they have focused more on a prisoner swap.
So according to many of the leftist during the discussion of Mearsheimer and Walt's paper, the whole point of Israel's aggression is to be our pit bull there. If that is the case, then the US were hoping for Hamas to be elected and have both them and Hezbullah capture IDF soldiers. The more conflict, the better. Heck, bring them on Iran and Syria.
In an interview on public radio today a Lebanese correspondent in Beirut suggested that considerable evidence points to the fact that Israel invited a kidnapping of soldiers as an incitement to reprisals. The reprisals (if I recall this part of the analysis correctly) would enable Israel to weaken hizbullah and Lebanon at a time when it faces more serious threats from the Palestinians.
The correspondent's prediction was that Israel would go through with a prisoner swap because, in paraphrase, "that's how they always do it, after they commit enough acts of violence."
I'm afraid that Olmert doesn't have the political capital, or the incentive, to engage in an exchange. I'm afraid also that to the extent that this correspondent's views are widely held there is little prospect for truth or truce in Lebanon.
U.S. Policy in Lebanon
by L C Johnson [Subscribe]
Thu Jul 13, 2006 at 05:24:47 PM PDT
By Ray Close
(Ray is my friend, and a former CIA analyst in the Near East division. Ray is also a member of the Steering Group for Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, of which I am also a member. Today, Ray sent me, and other intelligence professionals, the following letter; Ray gave me his permission to disseminate this important letter widely. -- Larry C. Johnson)
Dear Friends:
Not surprisingly, some (not all) of my Israeli and American Jewish friends have objected strenuously to my characterization of Israel's response to recent Hamas and Hizballah actions as disproportionate and counterproductive.
Let me make it crystal clear where I stand.
One of the definitions of madness is the repetition countless times of the same action, always expecting a different result. For more than half a century, the Israelis have been applying the tactic of massively disproportionate retaliation to every provocative act of resistance attempted by the Palestinians, expecting every time that this would bring peace and security to all the people of the Holy Land. Every single time they have done this this, it has backfired. Every single time. The national philosophy (it is really deeper and more significant that just a military tactic) that underlies this devotion to massive over-reaction, and particularly its corollary, collective punishment, is obviously and demonstrably foolish and futile. It does not intimidate or deter the Palestinians, and it never will. It hardens their determination to resist and to defy. I don't care whether you consider the Palestinians to be terrorists or common criminals or freedom fighters or national resistance heroes. If you are an intelligent and sensitive human being, you learn from your past mistakes and you make a rational decision to try something different. The Israeli leadership for all these many generations has been incapable of performing that really rather simple mental and moral exercise.....
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/13/202447/377
Yes, Professor Cole, this is likely to be bad for the situation in Iraq.
I wonder if the best way to ensure against further kidnappings is to completely ignore them, outside of strengthening the units that patrol the border.
If Israel negotiated for a hostage swap, it would encourage more kidnappings.
But if Israel invades, it also encourages kidnappings. Hezbollah, for example, was enjoying its finest hour (in the eyes of the Lebanese) when it was attempting to eject the Israelis.
Perhaps a soldier should not be so afraid to die, or be captured. Maybe (and this is mostly silly) the knowledge that your gov't will try to gain you back will weaken your resolve to avoid capture.
Post a Comment
<< Home