Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Lebanon War Grinds on Despite UN Diplomacy

On Sunday morning, "Six civilians were killed when an air-to-ground missile hit a house in the village of Ansar, near the port city of Sidon. The aircraft returned as rescue teams in villages throughout the area tried to sift through rubble searching for more victims."

Also, on Sunday morning, the The Israeli airforce attacked non-Hizbullah targets such as bridges in the north and a Palestinian camp in the Biqa'.

The United States and France reached agreement at the United Nations on Saturday on the wording of a resolution calling for an end of hostilities in the Israel-Lebanon war. The resolution does not require Israeli forces to depart Lebanese soil, which Hizbullah says is a deal breaker with regard to any ceasefire.

That this language was agreed upon by John Bolton, among the most velociraptor-like warmongers to hold high office in American history, suggests one of two things: Either the Israeli political elite itself has concluded that it has accomplished all it can against Hizbullah, or the Europeans and US Arab allies, including Iraq, have prevailed on Bush to shorten the leash on Olmert. The war will go on for a while, even so, as the Israelis continue their ethnic cleansing of the Lebanese South.

Rosemary Hollis says that Israel underestimated Hizbullah. If so, it helps explain the turn to UN resolutions. If they thought they were really winning, the Israelis would probably have ordered Bolton to go on stonewalling the French.

The Lebanese government expressed serious reservations about the UN draft language. In particular, Beirut wants an explicit statement that Israel must relinquish the occupied Shebaa Farms. A spokesman was careful to say, however, that the government was not rejecting the draft.

Back in the real world, AFP/NaharNet report that on Saturday:


'In the space of seven hours Saturday, Israel hit Lebanon with around 250 air raids and some 4,000 shells . . .

The single village of Aitaroun near the border endured a barrage of 2,000 rounds.

Israeli artillery was systematically leveling 15 villages within five km of the border after Israeli leaders vowed to create a security zone free of Hizbullah fighters in the area, the police added. '


Or maybe of living things.

Israeli commandos made a raid into Tyre early Saturday morning. They claim it was a success. Hizbullah claims to have thwarted it. No way to know who is right. (Arab satellite stations report the story with the Hizbullah slant on the whole.)

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Saturday rejected European criticism of Israel's massive bombing of Lebanon and its killing of hundreds of innocent civilians. He pointed to Kosovo as precedent for what he was doing.

Olmert also said he thought he might just murder Hasan Nasrallah.

Uh, Ehud, you're supposed to be playing NATO in this interview, remember? Not Milosevic. You're getting your precedents for murder, mass or otherwise, mixed up.

Besides, the whole analogy is wrong. Milosevic's forces were ethnically cleansing the Kosovars. NATO was protecting the latter (and the Israeli government of the time supported this effort, given its alliance with Turkey). Who was Hizbullah ethnically cleansing in early July? In fact, it is the Israelis who have behaved in the past two weeks like Milosevic's Serbian troops, who systematically attempted to displace the Kosovars during the war. And then the NATO estimate is that their campaign killed 5000 Serbian military personnel and at most 1500 civilians. Israel's war has killed nearly 700 (maybe 900) civilians and many fewer Hizbullah fighters. So, the argument fails on all counts.

For the experience of a village in south Lebanon, see the web site of the village of Rashaya al-Fukhar.

The LA Times says, "Lebanese emergency agencies said 11 Lebanese died and 75 others were injured Saturday, bringing the official confirmed death toll in the country to 686, most of them civilians. Siniora claims the actual figure, because of the large number of people still buried under rubble, is more than 900."

In the far south landwar front, Hizbullah said Saturday that its guerrillas had ambushed an Israeli contingent at the border village of Aita al-Shaab. Israel admitted that one of its soldiers was killed by mortar fire near that site, according to the LA Times.

Thousands of Israelis protested the war at a peace rally in Tel Aviv. Among the Israeli politicians who spoke against it was Shulamit Aloni. I met her in Ann Arbor in the mid-1980s and immediately admired her. Bless her, that she is still at it.

Tens of thousands protested in London, Capetown, Cairo and elsewhere on Saturday. In Egypt, 2000 members of the Muslim Brotherhood denounced the US and Israel and demanded the government let them go join the fight as irregulars.

In Israel, Hizbullah rained rockets down again, and killed 3 persons, all Palestinian-Israelis. Although Hizbullah is said to have fired 3000 rockets at Israel since the war began, very few of them (5 percent?) have hit anything of importance. They have however killed over 30 civilians and wounded dozens more, and damaged some buildings. I think about a third of the civilian casualties have been Arab. Israel's Palestinians tend to live in the north, in Haifa, Acre and the Galilee, so they are in the line of fire. Some readers question my repeated condemnation of Hizbullah for targeting civilian populations with its rockets. But the condemnation is much merited. What they are doing would be a war crime if they were a government. Since they aren't even a government, just a party-militia, I think the charge should be even more severe.

The Israeli public is beginning to turn on its political elite for its prosecution of the war and for its inability so far to stop the rockets. The Washington Post reveals that even in territories actually controlled by Israeli troops in Lebanon, the number of rocket launches is still 50% of what it would be were there no Israeli troops there. That admission is quite astonishing. So far the Israeli army can only cut the attacks from 200 to 100, even when it actually occupies the territory from which the attacks are coming! Some 38 percent of Israelis believe "no one" is winning this war. You can say that again.

11 Comments:

At 3:53 AM, Blogger idlebile said...

Please comment on the allegation that Hizbullah are not targeting civilians (at least not to the degree that is claimed), but are targeting military installations in the north of Israel, which the Israelis have placed near Arab areas in Israel.

Below are two links to articles by a British journalist who alleges that this is the case, and that Israeli censorship keeps us from putting the pieces together.

http://www.jkcook.net/Articles2/0269.htm#Top

and

http://www.antiwar.com/orig/cook.php?articleid=9333

 
At 7:21 AM, Blogger AlsoBobFromCT said...

NPR reported Saturday that Israel had strafed and sunk all the fishing boats in a coastal village. In the fevered Israeli mind, are these potential "USS Cole"-type attack vehicles?

Presumably my beloved Byblos will be hit too, as it has lots of fishing boats.

 
At 10:14 AM, Blogger John Francis Lee said...

Lebanon War Grinds on Despite UN Diplomacy

From the Draft UNSC resolution :

'OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;'

I'm not a lawyer but I can tell there's enough weasel room there to bomb a nation through.

Israel, light unto nations, surely claims that its every military action is defensive. In fact I'm sure it has not yet fired an offensive bullet, or dropped an offensive cluster bomb in Lebanon, or Gaza, or anywhere for that matter. Any military action that Israel undertakes is transformed into a defensive action by the very fact that Israel has undertaken it.

And that goes for every action taken by the United States Department of Defense as well, in spades!

The Lebanese have made it clear that this proposal is DOA. They haven't even bothered to parse this nonsense because, sine qua non, they will not stop defending themselves from Israel's "defensive" actions while Israel troops are occupying their country, a point that this proposal does not even address.

The US and France are carrying on as though what they do at the UN is important. It is utterly irrelevant. It is fiddling while Lebanon burns.

The US is ultimately responsible for all the death and destruction in Lebanon. It gave Israel the wherewithal and support to carry out its invasion of Lebanon, resupplies Israel's weapons, undertakes this action at the UN to make sure that Israel continues to have free-rein in its maximum neutralization of Lebanon.

In the words of Ned Lamont published, mirabile dictu, on his website just before the NYTimes endorsed his Senate candidacy : "It is not for the United States to dictate to Israel how it defends itself."

Ned goes on to say as does Joe Lieberman, that neither is it Joe's place "Nor is it my place to make tactical recommendations to the president."

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger John Koch said...

Today comes news that a Hezbollah rocket hit the Israeli kibbutz Kfar Giladi, killing 10 army reservests based there. The rockets are too inaccurate to credit this to any smart targeting, but the event suggests that Israel also has military assets in civilian locations. It is stupid to imagine that either side would put its forces in a clean target for the enemy to demolish in a "turkey shoot."

 
At 12:09 PM, Blogger james_speaks said...


Rosemary Hollis says that Israel underestimated Hizbullah.
"If so, it helps explain the turn to UN resolutions. If they thought they were really winning, the Israelis would probably have ordered Bolton to go on stonewalling the French."

We know from experience that "...ordered Bolton to ..." is neither hyperbole nor satire. The future holds great promise, from a nasty, finger-pointing perspective, where we watch how Israel and her spokeshair-piece Bolton twist and turn to find a way to blame the UN and pressure it for the return of peace-observing force.

From Haaretz, "Israel has agreed to the draft's provision that the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)."

Going out on a limb here, taking a wild stab, guessing blindly, I am going to say that Israel will wait a few weeks after they stop the excessive bombing, wait for a rocket attack or stage one, then use FOX to cry out, wail, weep, gnash teeth and otherwise whine for the World to stop the Genocide against the hapless Israeli victims of Hizbollah.

Just a guess. It has never happened before, you know.

As other posters have noted, the UN resolution is weasel-proof. I mean to say, weasels employed by Israel and the US have proofed it and found it acceptably ambiguous.

The resolution will be used thusly: Hizbollah must withdraw from the Peace Zone (i.e., whatever part of Lebanon Israel can weasel away with) and Israel will be free to continue to bomb the terrorist infrastructure, meaning lands Israel wants for farms.

Israel will try to use this peace the same way Israel used the Oslo accords, namely to steal the land.

The worms in the ointment are the accurate guided missles Hizbollah will be able to obtain from more civilized nations such as Russia, France and China. Israel runs the risk of convincing Hizbollah that the downside to a more effective attack is less than the status quo.

Helena Cobban (justworldnews.org) writes the following bit of insight.

"The slogan "strong in the rear, victorious at the front" rings hollow. Since January 1991, given the hundreds of terror attacks and the proven connection between war and peace, on one hand, and the socioeconomic situation on the other, Israeli governments should have known that the distinction between the rear and the front is no longer relevant. The citizens sitting in airless bomb shelters; the employees of community centers and local municipalities, hundreds of whom are still owed months of unpaid government wages; the staff of the Ministry of Education's psychological services; and even youth movement counselors - all of these are now on the front lines, and none are receiving backing from the state."

Could you pick out the interesting part? It's in bold letters.

Hundreds of Israeli workers owed government wages indeed! It might be that the Great Israeli Bank Robbery (what, two years ago?) where they took several million from Palestinian banks, was less about fighting terror than it was about Israel needing Arab cash to stay afloat.

Israel will not be pushed into the sea. Israel will be pushed into Chapter 11. Ha!

Gangster Capitalism explains it all well enough. Israel needs money to purchase fuel to grow crops to stay alive. Israel needs Lebanese water to grow crops to stay alive. Israel needs Lebanese land to grow crops to stay alive. Israel needs Kurdish oil to stay alive. Israel needs the US$ to stay alive.

Israel needs the UN now to ward off the economy wrecking rocket attacks (which have killed more soldiers than Israel admits) or else Israel has trouble paying its salaries.

Irony. It ain't in the dictionary.

My humble suggestion is for the UN to place the graves of the four dead observers in the place where they were killed, and to let Israel to communicate all requests for more peacekeepers through them.

 
At 3:31 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

As Lebanon thumbs its nose at the Condi Rice's UN farce and Israel claims that the increasing number of rocket attacks show Hezbollah in its "death throes", it is time for some real world reflection:

I am the head of an Arab state. My people are so dmaned angry with me for being so chummy with The US of Israel that they're about to cut head off and maybe my family's too. What am I to do with this worthless army I bought with loans from the good ole USA?

I know! I buy rockets, anti-tank missiles, the latest and greatest anti-aircraft mobile missile systems and turn this worthless pile of dung into a killer fedayeen militia in all of the provinces of my realm...

Then let nature take its course.

And if I were an aspiring Nasrallah, say like Muqtada, I'd send 500 or so of my hottest young fighters to Lebanon for battle experience

 
At 5:03 PM, Blogger johnMccutchen said...

Pat Lang An Arab Guerilla Army

Lang is a retired US Army Special Forces (Green Beret) intelligence officer

 
At 5:13 PM, Blogger Arizoniana said...

Tom Ricks, Washington Post reporter and author of the #1 best-seller "Fiasco," was on Howard Kurtz's "Reliable Sources" CNN show this morning, with some interesting news:

KURTZ: Tom Ricks, you've covered a number of military conflicts, including Iraq, as I just mentioned. Is civilian casualties increasingly going to be a major media issue? In conflicts where you don't have two standing armies shooting at each other?

THOMAS RICKS, REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I think it will be. But I think civilian casualties are also part of the battlefield play for both sides here. One of the things that is going on, according to some U.S. military analysts, is that Israel purposely has left pockets of Hezbollah rockets in Lebanon, because as long as they're being rocketed, they can continue to have a sort of moral equivalency in their operations in Lebanon.

KURTZ: Hold on, you're suggesting that Israel has deliberately allowed Hezbollah to retain some of it's fire power, essentially for PR purposes, because having Israeli civilians killed helps them in the public relations war here?

RICKS: Yes, that's what military analysts have told me.

KURTZ: That's an extraordinary testament to the notion that having people on your own side killed actually works to your benefit in that nobody wants to see your own citizens killed but it works to your benefit in terms of the battle of perceptions here.

RICKS: Exactly. It helps you with the moral high ground problem, because you know your operations in Lebanon are going to be killing civilians as well.

 
At 6:08 PM, Blogger Chris said...

The frequent reporting of the quantity of rockets fired by Hezbollah (approximately 3000 we're told) is rarely balanced by a tally of ordnance fired by Israel. Any comparison would render the number 3000 insignificant to readers not living in fear of becoming a statistic in Northern Israel.
I agree that condemnation of indiscriminate fire at civilian areas by Hezbollah is legitimate and doesn't qualify as pandering. Especially in light of Professor Cole's criticism of Israel's tactics.
We risk sliding down that slippery slope of becoming just like those we despise when we promote further 'wrongs' in pursuit of making things 'right'.
How wonderful that I have the luxury of such moral clarity in my comfortable North American dwelling, eh? Do I have any actual practical solutions or ideas? No, can't say that I do. My apologies.

 
At 10:12 PM, Blogger InplainviewMonitor said...

UNSC on Lebanon

Basically, the meaning of the US-French document comes to the mandate for Israel to rule freshly occupied Lebanese territories - everything as with League of Nations before WW2. This explains why Lebanon rejects this document. Recent ANews cartoon makes this sad fact pretty clear.

 
At 4:45 PM, Blogger Chris said...

Another tiny detail that's been bothering me: Why do reporters insist on including information like, "The rockets (fired by Hezbollah) were packed with ball bearings to inflict more damage."?
How is this newsworthy. If it is in fact newsworthy then surely we should also know all the details of the death dealing technology we're supplying to Israel. They should explain the armor piercing, shrapnel laden, white phosphorous, depleted uranium, etc. in depth and let us know what it's for. Is it there to inflict less damage? More?

 

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