Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, August 10, 2006

"A String of attacks that will continue and become stronger"

The failure of the Bush administration to take the threat of Bin Laden and Zawahiri seriously and to capture them continues to leave Americans and others at risk.

British authorities have arrested 21 members of a terror cell, apparently British-born or British-bred persons of Pakistani or South Asian origin. They were planning to hijack 6 to 10 American planes at Heathrow Airport in London, and to bring on board liquid-based explosives that they would mix while sitting in their seats.

Regular readers know that I believe that Ayman al-Zawahiri has been recruiting terrorists in Britain, using al-Qaeda-affiliated radical Pakistani groups such as Lashkar-e Tayyiba or Jaish Muhammad. Al-Zawahiri had in his possession the suicide statement tapes of Mohammad Sidique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer. Many UK Muslims of South Asian origin are from Mirpur in Kashmir, so these Kashmir-oriented affiliates of al-Qaeda have special appeal to them. (South Asian Muslims tend to feel that Kashmir was illegitimately grabbed by India and is being oppressed by a Hindu state.) Why did al-Zawahiri have these tapes in his possession, and why was he commenting on them?

On 7/7, 2006, Zawahiri released the final tape of Shehzad Tanweer: Tanweer said,


"What you have witnessed now is only the beginning of a string of attacks that will continue and become stronger." . . . Tanweer says in a Yorkshire accent on the film that attacks will continue "until you pull your forces out of Afghanistan and Iraq".


Even if this cell is not directly connected to Zawahiri, that he and Bin Laden can come on television and the internet and continue to encourage copycate al-Qaeda-style attacks is a huge security problem that needs to be solved much more urgently than the problem of which clans rule the small city of Ramadi in Iraq.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have contributed to the radicalization of second-generation UK Muslims. They oppose those wars by a large margin. Some 80 percent of UK Muslims oppose the Iraq War, and only 10 percent approve of it. The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians is also a matter of great concern to them, and a radicalizing factor for young people.

Only 1 percent of UK Muslims believe that the 7/7 bombings were "right." But 13 percent of UK Muslims (who are about 1.6 million persons in a population of 60 million) believe that the 7/7 bombers are martyrs. Another 16 percent believe that while their action was wrong, their cause was just.

On the other hand, 56 percent of UK Muslims think that their government is not doing enough to combat extremism, and nearly half want surveillance of mosques. About a third say they would be proud if a family member joined the British police. The community is clearly deeply divided, with a minority attracted by extremism and a majority that is very worried about it and wants something done.

16 Comments:

At 5:49 PM, Blogger karlof1 said...

Policies that promote death versus those that promote life are the defining hallmark of the Death Party that rules any empire. When there's such overt triangulation between three such parties--US, UK, Israel--those plagued by years of such policies will attempt to strike back. The policies by these empires are somewhat indiscriminate and thus affect every person on the planet; thus, all strife existing today got its start from Death Party policies.

Obviously, the blowback from policies promoting death will be death. Until the policies promoted by the three empire's rulers change from those promoting death to those promoting life, we will continue to witness attempts, both aborted and fulfilled, to strike back at the polities that seem quite willing to support their Death Party. (Legitimate defense policy, like that of Hezbolla, that seeks no offensive component, is a policy of life, not death, which accounts for the massive perceptional difference for those supporting it from those attacking it. Basic Zionist policy, on the other hand, promotes death, which is why all who encounter it do their best to negate it.)

 
At 6:40 PM, Blogger copy editor said...

This is as much of a wake up call as it is a successful police operation. I would argue, in fact I do on my blog, that al Qaeda has a great deal of command and control left. They need to be hit with new vigor.

 
At 6:59 PM, Blogger wardog100 said...

Juan: you must be skeptical about these "alerts. Is the tail wagging the dog again?

"Early, breathless, MSM coverage reports a "sophisticated" and "professional" and "serious" plot. Blah blah blah. (Don't watch the cable news on this subject for more than 2 minutes of headlines. That's all you need. The rest is bloviation.)

The facts at present, as reported, are that Bush's poodle Blair has arrested 21 people for a plot his govt has been investigating for months, and of which the US has been aware for at least 2 weeks! So yes, the timing is extremely suspect. If Chertoff knew two weeks ago that a plot to blow up jetliners was in the "final planning stages," why the hell did he wait until now to increase security? Let's face it, this is just another chicken little outcry by the little chicken in the oval.

But just for a moment let's take the accusations at face value. Reports are that these 21 are brits, not saudis or iranians or syrians. Brits. Do we now have to invade London? In order to "fight them there so we don't have to fight them here"? "

AlternetPost 2006 7:56 AM Posted by: beltane on Aug 10,

 
At 8:11 PM, Blogger Arizoniana said...

How soon before travelers with a British passport are not allowed into the United States without a visa?

 
At 8:38 PM, Blogger Wah said...

"What you have witnessed now is only the beginning of a string of attacks that will continue and become stronger." . . . Tanweer says in a Yorkshire accent on the film that attacks will continue "until you pull your forces out of Afghanistan and Iraq".

This can't be repeated enough. Folks need to realize that militarism is not the answer to this struggle. Tony Blair seemed to grasp that for his L.A. speech last week, but I'm wondering if he'll be able to express that opinion again after this latest panic subsides.

 
At 9:44 PM, Blogger Christiane said...

All the shows we have been seeing about this twarted attack leaves me very sceptical. I've the deep feeling that they did a lot of hype on a relatively small thing. It was just a carefully staged PR campaign. May be Bush and Blair popularity index will climb a little again after that day. We are all manipulated.
There was certainly some bad guys planning something. But wardog100 asks judicious questions : if the UK was following these 21 supposed terrorists since weeks, why the sudden halt to all the flights ? why all this hype ? Just so that we have the priviledge to hear Orwellians discourse from the mouth of Bush ?

Or is it because the world needed some distraction from the casualties the Israelians are inflicting to innocent victimes ?

The way the US is treating the rest of the world, the international law, the principles of the UN is just simply outrageous and believe me, it's not only outrageous to the Arabs, it's outrageous to all of us, at least here in the EU. How can they propose a resolution which acknowledge the invasion and occupation of a foreign neighbouring country ? wasn't the UN created to prevent exactly that ? Don't they have any shame to block the Lebanese amendments ?

So,If you have it coming on your heads, it's your own fault and I won't whyne.
You have become the most unjust power in the actual world, the biggest liards and hypocrites.

But people don't get fooled, by Bush words, they know exactly how abusive the US/UK/Israel behaviour is. And believe me, there are not only the Arabs to be scandalized by the imperial/aggressive policies and war of Bush/Blair and co.

 
At 9:48 PM, Blogger Billmon said...

"The [UK Muslim] community is clearly deeply divided, with a minority attracted by extremism and a majority that is very worried about it and wants something done."

I wonder what kind of polling results you would get now, after the rape of Lebanon.

 
At 10:12 PM, Blogger Patriot.L.Rots said...

Whilst it is possible that everything is as it seems from the breathless wall to wall reporting it should not be forgotten that UK SIS, the Police and the government all have a history of either bungling incompetence or twisting and hyping the threat for political gain. Yhe 'ricin plot', Forrest Gate, Jean Charles at Stockwell etc. None of it makes me confident.
Did you notice that Bush declared the enemy today as "Islamic Fascists"? He has dropped the "Islamo".
What ever the reality behind today's events one thing I know - it's our freedom they hate - that's why we are giving so much of it up!

 
At 10:38 PM, Blogger Steve said...

I don't understand the lack of skepticism regarding this latest "terror plot." I'd bet good money it will turn out to be bogus, likely fueled by "informants."

 
At 11:23 PM, Blogger John Koch said...

No need to invade London or Lahore. Now more than ever, Baghdad's the key, according to one "moderate" quoted in today's NYT:

"Senator Joseph I. Lieberman seized on the terror arrests in Britain today to attack his Democratic rival, Ned Lamont, saying that Mr. Lamont’s goals for ending the war in Iraq would constitute a 'victory' for the extremists who are accused of plotting to blow up airliners traveling between Britain and the United States."

War critics will be dogged by complaints that they want to appease or hand victory to evildoers. No doubt about it. Any person who says "redeploy" will incur all sorts of vilification, so easier to leave the inevitable disgrace for the poor sucker who arrives in the WH in 2009.

Meanwhile, this adds to the fervor of those calling for a decisive military act. Since the latest plotters furnish an even scantier object for reprisal than those behind 9/11, and because nuclear Pakistan is not a feasible target, the Neocons will now rally even more to make war on Iran. Bush may see this as the one way to redeem his sullied mandate, prove himself to doubting Daddy, save sacred Israel, earn divine blessing, and fulfill holy prophesy.

 
At 11:52 PM, Blogger ontripoli said...

-Israel is destroying Lebanon without touching Hezb-Allah,
The London Airport story is a relief from a focus.
-Israel Is committing war crimes in Lebanon & Palestine on behalf of Bush & CO and the Christian right in the U.S.A.
The London Airport story is a diversion.
-A diversion of public opinion is needed; see how the London Airport story was carefully mastered to target the American public in a timely manner as vacation times are approaching. (The press release of the three AG- HS and the TSA was well crafted)
-The security situation in Iraq is in shambles, (% 60 of the American public is against the war)
The London Airport story is a relief and a diversion.
I am wondering how long this could go on like this, is there a sane person in the west that can stop these war mongers from committing their crimes.

 
At 12:07 AM, Blogger Le Jackel said...

I am very sceptical. In 2003, 24 individuals of south Asian origin were arrested in Toronto and accused of plotting terrorist attacks. They were alleged to be an Al Qaeda sleeper cell, planning a dirty bomb attack, plotting to attack landmarks and nuclear power plants. All these allegations amounted to nothing. But the arrests got the same global coverage these arrests are getting. Most of the accused were deported on the most flimsy basis.

The recent terrorist arrests in Toronto are looking increasingly dubious. Most of the serious alleged threats in this case were due to the machinations of a police agent.

Of course stuff such as 7/7 has happened and there are those who wish the West ill. But If one samples the media coverage of the alleged threats emerging from Britain the meme is that the entire globe needs to be in a dithering panic. It is difficult not to see how this is being played up as a cynical and calculating attempt to gin up the flagging support for Bush, Blair and the Global War on Terra.

I'll believe the individuals arrested in Britain on this matter are guilty of something when they are convicted in a court of law. Oh? That's how its supposed to work?

 
At 12:28 AM, Blogger Abhinav Aima said...

Joe “First Half” Lieberman lost no time in jumping on the latest terror threat and claimed it vindicated his stance on supporting the Bush War in Iraq, and went further in the “Islamic Fascism” line of thought by comparing the British terrorists to Nazis.

I think Lieberman is miffed that the Brits didn’t carry out these arrests a few days earlier – that might have given him the scare needed to woo over 10,000 votes and win the primary… For Lieberman, these terror arrests come two days too late.

But seriously, Lieberman is full of crap… The whole Islamic Fascism line of thinking, and comparing Muslim radicals to Nazis, is designed to sway the opinion of those whose understanding of the world is still defined by memories of the Second World War and the Cold War – and unfortunately there are millions of such people in these here them United States… However, the comparison is flawed, as I have previously pointed out, and seriously misrepresents the scale and nature of the threat posed by Muslim radicals.

I know for a fact that the Muslim radicals planning and carrying out bombings in England were NOT terrorists before the Bush War in Iraq… I know this because I was in London in the summer of 2003 and looked specifically for the story of Muslim radicals linked to the Finsbury Park mosque, who had included Zacarias Moussaoui and Richard Reid in the post 9/11 period.

I spent the summer of 2003 traveling to Lebanon and (Indian) Kashmir to gauge the fallout of the Bush War in Iraq, and London became my R&R point, because the British Muslim radicals story fell through – it fell through because I was assured by informed sources in London that British authorities had cracked down on the Finsbury Park ring and all extremists had been taken care of.

And yet barely a few months after the Bush War in Iraq turned into a disaster a fresh cadre of British Muslim youth started enrolling in radical terror plans clearly motivated by the suffering of the Iraqis… The Bush War in Iraq, I believe, has done nothing to stop terrorism but has instead provoked and encouraged disgruntled Muslims to join in the ranks of terrorists.

I bet the current BushBlair Israel slaughter in Lebanon is not doing much to pacify disgruntled Muslim youth either. Another straw on the camel’s broken back.

 
At 2:10 AM, Blogger AJB said...

Anti-Muslim Sentiment on the rise:

Thirty-nine percent of respondents to the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll said they felt at least some prejudice against Muslims. The same percentage favored requiring Muslims, including U.S. citizens, to carry a special ID "as a means of preventing terrorist attacks in the United States." About one-third said U.S. Muslims were sympathetic to al-Qaeda, and 22% said they wouldn't want Muslims as neighbors.

 
At 4:16 AM, Blogger Shaggydabbydo said...

Whilst playing online poker with Sky news on (ok, smack me around the head with a 5kg cod), reports of the alleged plot were released.

I have to say, it was all done with much seriousness and and not much hype, until that was, the line 'This was intended to be mass murder on an unimaginable scale'.

Not sure what planet that speaker was on, but look at Iraq, heck, look at Rawanda - look in many places.

Whether the threat was as real as they say, and at this point, I tend to believe it was (my bullshit detector has not twitched, apart from on 'unimaginable'), I think the apparatus in place to disseminate threat information is in place, and it looks although our UK authorities are doing a good job, at least, in this instance.

So, that simply leaves deradicalizing the radicals.

Will they have the balls to do what needs to be done?

I doubt it, so it's business as usual, and my plan to make large amounts of wonga out the fall, then rise, in stock markets in the world to help those suffering under industrial states oppression is put on hold until another day.

Regs, Shaggy

 
At 9:47 AM, Blogger Sulayman said...

Do Bin Laden and Zawahiri's speeches really have that much value? It's not like people need to hear them before they take any action. Kill them, and you'll find another to take their place, maybe even more eloquent and persuasive.

Face it, stopping them won't end the security problems, that will have to be through a mix of diplomacy and force, though both aren't being done properly and are alienating Muslims everywhere. (like "anti-Statue of Liberty" Guantanamo, destruction of Lebanon, etc)

 

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