Sudden Curfew in Baghdad
The Iraqi government has imposed a curfew on Baghdad. Some reports say it is for 24 hours. This one maintains that it is for 3 days. For those who haven't lived through them, it is worth noting that such curfews can be huge inconveniences. If you haven't stocked enough food and water, too bad. And, for people who need the money, missing work is a catastrophe. The move was abrupt and caught some Iraqi and US officials by surprise. Several hundred bodies have shown up dead in Baghdad's streets in the past week.
Congress placed restrictions on the Bush administration in its Defense Department appropriations bill, forbidding permanent bases in Iraq or trying to control the Iraqi petroleum sector. Many in Congress feel that the guerrilla movement is fueled in part by anxieties over American intentions with regard to these two issues.
16 died in guerrilla war violence in Iraq on Friday. Among the deaths, 10 bodies were found, mostly in Baghdad but some in Suwayra.
The prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government has threatened to secede from Iraq if the federal government will not recognize the oil contracts signed by the regional confederacy with Western petroleum companies. Baghdad was not consulted on these deals, and Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani has begun insisting that the central government does have some prerogatives in this regard.


4 Comments:
I think the Kurds are overplaying their hand, and the US is helpless to stop them because the Kurds are the only parties in Iraq that tolerate the Americans, and the Americans do not want to leave.
The problem is that Turkey is where most Kurds live and where most territory on which Kurds reside lies. Kurdish violent secessionists have become more active recently in Turkey than in any other country. Turkey cannot tolerate groups like the PKK having a wealthy ideologically aligned refuge in an independent Kurdistan from Iraq.
The choice of whether or not to openly fight Turkey over Kurdistan is a choice the Americans do not want to make, but Turkey would have to overrun Kurdistan to defeat the PKK there if Kurdistan secedes. Turkey's aim would be to force Kurdistan to undo its secession. Every single one of Kurdistan's neighbors would favor Turkey in such a conflict: Iran, Syria, Iraq's Sunnis and Iraq's Shiites.
The US would really be torn. If it wants any chance of staying in Iraq, it has to support the Kurds, but Turkey is a very bad country to turn against the US. It is especially bad to trade Turkey for Kurdistan, a completely indefensible, landlocked country that can't even export oil except passing territory of hostile neighbors.
The best move for the US is to announce a withdrawal schedule, giving up hope of remaining in Iraq, and proposing a unified Iraq whose central government would have the authority to clamp down on the PKK but where Kurds have cultural independence, but not legal or military independence.
The Kurds really have no choice but to accept a unified Iraq without military independence because of their geographical situation. The fact that the Americans need them and they know it makes the Kurds willing and able to fight that reality.
Turkey would trust the Shiites in Baghdad to restrain the PKK with Iranian and Turkish help. And a complete disaster for the US can be avoided. But if the US insists on staying, it will not leave until after the complete disaster.
As a side bonus, the southern Shiites are going to demand whatever the Kurds get, but not necessarily more. Restraining the Kurds is the only way to prevent the other disaster of southern Shiite de-facto or de-jure secession.
As things are going now, the Kurds are eventually going to pull of an unexpected 9/11 attack that will pull Turkey into Iraq in total disregard for the Americans. With no warning, Turkey will turn into a fighting enemy of the United States, fully joining the anti-US alignment with Russia, China and Iran.
Here it comes
The other shoe...
From the Independent (UK)
As Kurd and Arab Clashes Surge, a Third War Is Looming in Iraq
Civil War in 3 dimensions
Two huge pieces of news here.
I can't believe Congress has nixed permanent bases and control of the petroleum sector (whatever that means).
How can this be getting so little coverage? Any idea where we might find the actual language they use?
The other piece of news is another big step towards the Kurdish war. That pot seems to be coming to the boil at last. How completely depressing.
The Iraqi government has imposed a curfew on Baghdad
Is there a coup in the offing against the American puppets?
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