62 Dead, Dozens Wounded as Rice Visits;
Warner: Iraq going Sideways;
Mahdi Army makes Hospitals Bases
Senator John Warner says that Iraq is "drifting sideways" and that many communities do not have potable water. He is one of the few American politicians I have heard talking about the lack of services in much of the country, which has provoked numerous demonstrations that are seldom reported in the US press.
But with all due respect, the direction in which Iraq is going is "south," not "sideways."
Rice made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Thursday. (They all have to be surprise visits because otherwise she would be killed while there. As it was, her landing was delayed by mortar fire at the airport). She kept to the new State Department line that the problem in Iraq is the indecision of the Iraqi government. Uh, the US abolished their army and destroyed all their tanks and won't give them new ones. So how is that the fault of the Iraqi government?
Reuters reported 61 killed or announced dead on Thursday in political violence. Major incidents:
' BAGHDAD - A total of 30 bodies, most of them shot and tortured, were found in different districts of Baghdad during the past 24 hours, a source in the Interior Ministry said.
BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed two people and wounded eight in Hurriya district in northwestern Baghdad, a source in the Interior Ministry said. The target of the explosion was not clear.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded 20 labourers as it exploded near a crowd of men waiting for day jobs in central Baghdad's Tayaran square, a source in the Interior Ministry said. . .
RAMADI - Four people were killed and six wounded in clashes between insurgents and U.S. forces in the insurgent stronghold city of Ramadi, 110 km (68 miles) west of Baghdad, Doctor Ahmed al-Rawi, head of Anbar health directorate said.'
A Danish soldier was killed in south Iraq during an operation to stop the constant mortar fire against the British and Danish military in Basra province. Presumably the attacks are coming from nationalist Shiites, maybe Mahdi Army or Fadhila's militia or a splinter group of the one or the other.
There has been a sharp upturn in violence against Iraq's Christians.
Lara Logan of CBS News does a truly courageous report on the way that the Mahdi Army is using its control of the Ministry of Health to turn hospitals into militia bases. Her sources allege that militiamen snuff out Sunni patients and keep political prisoners in the basements. She reveals that many Sunni families are afraid to come to the Sadrist-controlled morgue to pick up the bodies of loved ones, because they will be asked for their address and could face reprisals. The bodies are therefore piling up and then going into mass, anonymous graves.
Al-Qaeda views America's involvement in Iraq as just great for its longterm growth.
The rate at which the security situation in Iraq is declining can be guessed from this candid report by ABC's Terry McCarthy. Excerpts:
' . . . After six weeks away from Iraq and returning to Baghdad, I find the city appears much worse than when I left. Last week, according to a U.S. military spokesman, Baghdad experienced more attacks from car bombs and improvised explosive devices than at any other time this year. In the last five days, 14 U.S. soldiers have died in Baghdad, numbers that haven't been seen in the city since the 2003 invasion. ABC's local Iraqi staff tell us there are an increasing number of neighborhoods they no longer dare to visit. . .
For ordinary Iraqis, life has become ever more difficult. Many women are now afraid to leave their homes to go shopping, children are kept indoors to play, men sleep with guns next to their beds — if they can sleep at all. The physical violence is horrific, but even more widespread is the psychological damage . . .
The U.S. military said the situation in Baghdad would probably get worse before it gets better, and Iraqi citizens wonder how long they can stay alive before their lives improve. '
McCarthy suggests that the spike in US military deaths in the city has coincided with a push into Shiite areas, which probably means they are getting hit by Mahdi Army or splinters thereof.
Nobody seems to remember that the US military fought the Mahdi Army in April-May 2004 in Baghdad, and supposedly got them to lay down their arms, and took back from them all the police stations in East Baghdad / Sadr City that they had taken over. That was how Cindy Sheehan's son got killed. So how many times do we have to watch this same movie? What makes anyone think it will take this time if it did not in 2004?
CNN's Arwa Damon says that one of the other reasons for the spike in US military deaths is that Iraqi snipers are getting better at what they do.
US Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad admitted that the US has made mistakes in Iraq and that often US officials behaved arrogantly and did not listen to the Iraqis.
I have no idea why Khalilzad is saying this now. Is it to take the edge off Rice's hectoring of the Iraqi politicians and her blaming them for the current situation? Does he feel it is necessary to be more humble if the US is to hope to get cooperation from Iraqi politicians? Is he slamming Paul Bremer and the Coalition Provisional Authority? Is there some battle going on in the White House between Khalilzad supporters and some other faction?
Watching the Bush administration is like Kremlin watching was in the old days. You have to look at the photograph carefully to see how far the commissar is standing from Comrade Bush on the reviewing stand.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarizes the story from the Iraqi Ministry of Immigration about the huge numbers of internally displaced families that I mentioned earlier this week.
James Reavis complains about the Bush administration disinformation campaign trying to rosey up the situation in Iraq through paid propaganda masquerading as journalism. He also complains about new press laws in Iraq taken from Baath-era statutes that increasingly make it illegal to criticize the Iraqi government, according to the New York Times.
The USG Open Source Center paraphrases reports in the Iraqi press for October 5:
' Al-Basa'ir on 4 October runs on the front page a 550-word report on the Association of Muslim Scholars' Statement 322, which condemned occupation forces for the arrest of over 150 people, including tribal chiefs and women in the Hit District of Al-Anbar Governorate last week. . .
Al-Basa'ir on 4 October publishes on the front page a 300-word report on the demonstration organized by Hay al-Amil residents on 3 October condemning sectarian militias and demanding the withdrawal of the Interior Ministry's forces from the district.
Al-Basa'ir on 4 October carries on the front page and on page 3 a 450-word report entitled 'Occupation Forces Commit New Massacre in Al-Gatun District in Diyala Governorate; Association of Muslim Scholars Urges Human Rights Organizations To Expose Occupation Forces' Fascist Methods.' . . .
Al-Basa'ir on 4 October runs on page 4 a 400-word report entitled 'Having Faced Difficulties Escaping Iraqi Hell, Washington Seeks Arab and Iranian Support To Leave Iraq.' . . . '
Al-Zaman runs on the front page an 800-word report entitled 'Al-Anbar Tribes Protect Higways between Iraq, Jordan and Syria; Tribal Chief Demanded Saddam's Release Arrested in Kirkuk.'
Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 340-word report entitled 'Dismissal of Al-Muthanna Police Chief Creates New Crisis in Al-Samawah; Governorate Headquarters and State Institutions Come Under Mortar Attack.'
Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 700-word report entitled 'Washington Expresses Growing Concern about Democratizing Governments; Rice Discusses Completion of Political Process in Iraq with Mubarak.' . . .
Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 50-word report that terrorists wearing police uniforms killed the family of parliament member Samiyah Aziz Khisru's sister. (OSC plans no further processing)
Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 100-word report that a US vehicle crushed a person on Street 40 and left his body in the road. . . '
posted by Juan Cole @ 10/06/2006 12:33:00 AM
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14 Comments:
Partly facetious, mostly serious...
CUT and RUN
DO NOT WALK, pass GO or send Bush any more money
It might be a limited time offer. America has best repent. It is most def later than you think
Snnark snark Doc.
Re: the Bush administration's disinformation efforts. Let's hope that their feeble success will discourage future presidents from making similar attempts at Orwellianism.
It is very chilling to contemplate the possibility that the reason Zarqawi is dead has little to do with our soldiers' ability to find him, but much more to do with the thought that al-Qaeda's top-most folk decided that he was a liability and someone "more suitable" was needed. Unfortunately, most unfortunately, this possibility seems much more likely to me than that our intelligence services have been improving; it would have been very easy for some anonymous tipper to drop a note someplace. Maybe I am just suffering from a surfeit of pessimism but it is difficult to find anything bright or hopeful in this mess.
The new leader of AQ in Iraq threatened more attacks on Christians in his Ramadan address. I pay close attention to the threats these people make and whether the threats are actualized.
I'm reading Thomas Friedman's "From Beirut to Jerusalem, written in the late 1980's, for the first time and he cites what he says is an Arab proverb: "Better 60 years under a tyrant than one day of anarchy."
If that is indeed a widespread Arab proverb, I wonder how many Iraqis are reflecting on it these days.
I had earlier chuckled that Rice's trip to visit "moderate" "allies" of the US in the Middle East didn't include Iraq, and that as far as I could tell, Iraq didn't dispatch anyone to the meetings in Riyadh and Cairo.
Kenny Rogers is from Texas. He says, "You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run."
There is no conceivable US interest that is being served by remaining in Iraq.
Trade oil? Even Iran would trade oil with the US if it wasn't for US sanctions. Of course Iraq will sell oil to the US, if the oil ever gets back on line which cannot happen until the Iraqis believe the US is leaving.
Exclude Russia, China and US rivals from Iraq's oil trade? That's a political decision to be made by Iraq's government. Every day the occupation continues, more hatred of the US is generated, making it less likely that Iraq will ever favor the US over other countries.
Use Iraq as a base to threaten Iran? That was a perfect backfire. Iraq is a base for Iran to threaten the US. Iran is making good use of that base to put any military option against Iran for any reason way, way, way off the table.
Create a model pro-US democracy? Remember Hamas? The big difference with Iraq is that Iraq borders countries that will never agree, as Egypt and Jordan have in the case of Palestine, to punish Iraqi voters for electing a government unacceptable to the US. The elections already happened. Iraq's Hamas is the UIA and there is nothing the US can do about it.
Break up the country? The US can do that if it wants, but the pieces of Iraq that would emerge are just as bad or worse for the United States as Iraq is whole.
Defeat terrorists? What does "defeat" mean? Make them go home? The "terrorists" are home, the people the US is fighting in Iraq are almost all from Iraq. Kill them? Not only does killing them cause their relatives in Iraq to want revenge, it also causes their relatives and those who identify with them throughout the Middle East to want revenge. If you want to kill everyone in the Middle East, you do that with missiles and B2s launched from the US. If you don't want to kill everyone in the Middle East, then you can't have a strategy of killing Iraqis in Iraq fighting to expel the occupiers, and then killing their friends and relatives when they become "terrorists" and then killing the friends and relatives of the friends and relatives ...
Help Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds reach an agreement to live together? Sunnis and Shiites hate the US at least as much as they hate each other. The biggest thing the US can do to help them reach an agreement is to say the US will not be able to overturn any agreement they reach. One of their strongest areas of agreement is probably how much they hate the US. The Kurds get along with the Americans, but that means the Kurds know the US cannot say no to them and they can ask for things the Sunnis and Shiites can never agree with. The US makes any agreement that is acceptable to all sides much less likely to occur.
The US has nothing it can accomplish in Iraq. It is time to fold the hand, and accept that everything that has been put into the pot up to now is just a loss. The decision to make now, is should the US walk away, or should it run.
Rice, Warner, and even Levin sound pretty much alike, expressing impatience with the slow progress of the Iraqi government to take up "the tasks of sovereignty." I'm sure they mean suppression of the insurgents and militia, although the rebels themselves might say they agree that Iraq's problem is lack of sovereignty.
If nothing favorable happens in 90 days, the US officials say changes might be necessary. They don't say, but seem to insintuate, that the US might have to step in, as though the solution would be like a state to intervene a a corrupt local school board or a farmer to spray weeds.
It would be very awkward for the US to abduct Maliki from the Green Zone and send him to Cairo as permenent "guest" of Mubarak. A lapse in roadway security could result in an "unfortunate" motorcade attack.
But, however the US decides to liquidate the experiment in elected government, could the replacement achieve anything? Would the Iraqi army or police abide by an order to suppress the militias? Is Maliki's innaction merely due to lack of will?
If the US withdraws and the insurgents promptly forget any pledge to demobilize or negotiate, many people predict worse than chaos: partition. But refusal to acknowledge this probable, if messy, outcome could be simply another case of "state of denial."
John Warner has been running interference for Bush's war policies since the beginning. As chairman of the Armed Servcices Committee he controlled the agenda and the direction of debate. Utterly polite, deadly serious, craggily handsome with wonderful hair, he's been a gallant horseman of the apocalypse.
His latest achievement was to help protect Bush's right to snatch and store whoever, wherever, whenever, for however long he wanted, and treat them in accordance with some unwritten fine print in the Geneva conventions.
Why can't more people wake up?
I guess I already know the answer to that question...perhaps it is just so overwhelmingly sad that I can't accept it.
Perhaps I should just swallow the "fighting them over there" line and rejoice that while many innocent people in Iraq are being tortured and slaughtered...at least gas prices are going down.
*sigh*
...Her sources allege that militiamen snuff out Sunni patients and keep political prisoners in the basements.
That's a pretty serious accusation. I would like to think that she can produce her "source", but I doubt it.
Doesn't the good professor remember... Judith Miller? The fabrications from 'sources'?
Well. well John Warner spent One Day in the Life and Death of Iraq [Solomon Moore and Louise Roug, LATimes] and became a DefeatOCrat. It is like he had some Road to Damascus vision.
Why? Good Ole John has made 8 or more recess trips to Iraq, and every time could be counted with the Bush Amen Chorus on his return. "Don't worry or believe what you see in the media. You can;t the see the great progress. Everything all right with Iraq, if critics would just behave and let Bush be the great leader he is"
He saw nothing new. Just the Same Old Same Old - worse today than the day before. So why give aid and comfort to the Cut and Run Crowd?
Why else. It is all ovet for the course and expecting the Democrats to gain control of Congress, Warner wants to have room to embrace whatever change of course Baker/Hamilton come up with.
But none of it will matter for Iraq has passed from Failed State to Stateless Region on the Two Rivers. There is nothing the US can do to reverse the course save get out as fast as possible
Too late for new plans, new course changes
There are Danish troops STILL in Iraq?
I mean, when Danish citizens held a rally and burned Qurans earlier this year, a lot of Muslims felt that the Danes' true feelings were shining through. (The center-right government who was elected on an anti-immigrant platform refused to criticize the cartoons' content, regardless of free speech)
All they are is fuel on the fire, is a few hundred Danish troops worth the massive PR boost for the war critics?
John Koch:
Rice, Warner, and even Levin sound pretty much alike, expressing impatience with the slow progress of the Iraqi government to take up "the tasks of sovereignty."
If the present puppets were to take up the tasks of sovereignty the American troops in Iraq would find their supply lines cut and themselves held hostage in the middle of a sovereign country. You all had better watch out what you hope for.
John Koch:
You said that if the US leaves, the insurgents might forget any pledge they make to disarm or negotiate. I think that view is commonly held and wrong.
First, the insurgents do not have the Shiites outgunned. They don't think they can conquer either the Shiite South or the Kurdish North. They could accomplish a partition through violence but ...
Second, there is no oil in the Sunni area. Both the Kurds and the Shiites are perfectly willing to split without violence. All the Sunnis have to do is ask.
If the US leaves, there is nothing the Sunnis could accomplish militarily that they could not accomplish more easily non-militarily.
The only thing the Sunnis can accomplish militarily is pressure the US to leave given that the US does not want to leave.
There is one and only one significant obstacle to Sunni/Shiite negotiations which is that the US insists on a pro-US Iraq which means the US insists on being able to implement policies against the wishes of both the Sunnis and the Shiites. If the US insists on that, what is the use of the Sunnis and Shiites negotiating? Whatever they agree on, the US can and will reverse.
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