Pilgrimage Massacre Kills 138, Wounds 100s
Major Mosul Jailbreak
9 US GIs were announced killed on Tuesday, 6 in a roadside bombing in Salahuddin Province north of Baghdad, and 3 more in Diyala to the northeast of the capital.
Sunni Arab guerrillas on Tuesday targeted Shiite pilgrims on their way to the holy city of Karbala south of Baghdad. The most horrific attacks came in the form of two bombings in the largely Shiite city of Hilla, which killed 114 and wounded over 150. Some Shiite observers believe that the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr had done a better job of providing security, and that the US disarming of the group left the Shiites vulnerable.
In Mosul, dozens of guerrillas stormed the Badoush prison and freed 150 prisoners. Some 100 were recaptured, but about a third of them are still at large.
Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Iyad Allawi of the Iraqi National List (25 seats) and Adnan Dulaimi of the Iraqi Accord Front (44 seats) announced Tuesday the formation of a new coalition in parliament. Salih Mutlak of the Sunni Arab National Dialogue Front is also said to be intending to join the new bloc (his group has 11 seats in parliament) along with the Reconciliation and Reconstruction list of Mishaan Juburi (3 seats) and the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadila, 15 seats in parliament), which had earlier been part of the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shiite fundamentalist coalition. This 98-seat alliance is a new development, but unless it can attract another 40 MPs, it cannot hope to form a government. I also just don't think a coalition with hard line Sunnis and with the Islamic Virtue Party as well as Shiite secularists is likely to be stable or to last long.
Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi (Sunni Arab) has been negotiating with the Syrian government about acting as an intermediary for negotiations with high Baathist former Iraqi officials in Damascus. The Baathists play a much bigger role in the guerrilla movement in Iraq than is generally realized.
Tom Engelhardt on the horrible waste involved in the Iraq War.
posted by Juan Cole @ 3/07/2007 12:26:00 AM
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4 Comments:
The Tom Engelhardt 'piece' deserves a 'Print this Post' for a twice-read. Thanks.
If W. Were Serious About Winning the War in Iraq....
he would have launched a crash national program four years ago to start at least 100,000 Americans a year to begin the two-year-plus process of studying Arabic to reach a basic level of competency.
Sending a combat infantryman or an officer into combat without the means to communicate with the local inhabitants in a guerrilla war, is like sending him into battle without proper armor or accurate intelligence.
Yet Congress and the Pentagon seem happy to do both, and happy or not, continue to do so without insisting on corrective action.
W.'s goal, however, is not to "win" the war, but to keep it going so he is a "war president." "Victory" would take that role away from him, as it did from his father, who went down to electoral defeat.
For a guess as to how and why an ex-pat and former CIA toady can cobble together an "Odd Couples" coalition of parties, assuming he finds the other 40 seats, I would guess he is the replacement for Saddam, since we hanged Saddam.
There was speculation that there was a coming purge of the Security departments which would root out Badr Corp and Mahdi Army elements and also could lead to either the jailing of sitting MPs for their role in sectarian violence or their being forced to flee to avoid imprisonment. I believe one has already fled such investigations and I note recurring themes in the American Media that al Sadr has fled to Iran for sanctuary, as unlikely as that seems.
If a significant number of SCIRI, Dawa parties and Sadrists are arrested or fled, then would this give Allawi's coalition an opportunity to establish a government?
If so, I would guess for the suspension of the Constitution and an immediate crackdown as Allawi and his cohorts settle in for life. With this scenario, we still may be able to draw down the number of US troops by 2008, in time for the elections and at least stop the slow bleed if remaining troops can remain in garrison.
It is amazing to me that Allawi is still around, given the insignificant public support he enjoys.
"I also just don't think a coalition with hard line Sunnis and with the Islamic Virtue Party as well as Shiite secularists is likely to be stable or to last long."
Not to sound too cynical, but if the Cheney Administration is willing to spread enough money around the Baghdad political souk, who knows what could happen and how long it could last.
The real question in my mind is this: If such a coalition did come into being, and the Kurdish parties heed U.S. demands to abandon their Shi'a partners and join it, would THAT produce enough votes to form a new government?
Could this be part of the "new direction" Sy Hersh wrote about?
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