Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, November 09, 2007

Shiite on Shiite Conflict in Karbala, South;
US Soldier Killed;
Kurdish Party Bombed

That's all we need-- Iraqi troops raiding American mercenary units in Iraq. That will really settle things down.

Khalaf al-Ulyan, a Sunni fundamentalist member of parliament, condemned PM Nuri al-Maliki as a "dictator" because he unilaterally fired six Sunni Arab cabinet members. The six had tendered their resignations. According to the Iraqi constitution, the Prime Minister must accept or reject a cabinet member's resignation within one month. Al-Maliki declined to accept the resignations for three months, then suddenly fired the Sunnis for absenteeism, thus depriving them of pensions and other perquisites of office. Al-Ulyan pointed out that in any case they were provided to al-Maliki's cabinet by the Iraqi Accord Front, the Sunni fundamentalist party, and that he should have dealt with that party directly. Al-Maliki has refused to dialogue with the Sunnis in parliament over their discontents and declines to reach out to Sunnis who have kept their distance from the political process. Any reduction of violence in Iraq is clearly not bringing political reconciliation.

Raed Jarrar argues that the Iraqi cabinet, which represents only a small proportion of the electorate, has sidelined the parliament, which is more representative and is ruling by virtual executive decree. (Gee, I wonder where they got that idea). He also argues that the recent approval of two new technocrat ministers proposed to parliament by PM Nuri al-Maliki was done by only 110 members of parliament, which is not a quorum.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that a videotape has been shown on Iraqi television of police in the holy Shiite city of Karbala torturing local families and killing two children during the disturbances of 28 August.

The police in Karbala south of Baghdad are accusing the Mahdi Army of Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr of having killed several hundred persons in the past few years in that city. The police said that the Mahdi Army attempted to impose Islamic canon law on the populace, in the manner of a Shiite Taliban, and had run secret prisons where torture and executions were carried out. Spokesmen for the Sadr Movement, of which the Mahdi Army forms the paramilitary, denounced the charges as self-serving lies. The Sadrists said there has been a mass of unjustified arrests of their members by the Karbala police in recent months, and that the detainees have been abused.

Al-Hayat points out that the accusations have to be seen as part of a Shiite on Shiite power struggle. The police and administration of Karbala is dominated by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, which was formed in exile in Iran. ISCI has been in competition with the Sadrists for control of Karbala for years, and may be achieving its goal. The shrine city is a rich source of wealth, since millions of pilgrims visit it annually from all over the Shiite world and give offerings to whoever controls the shrine.

This week, the deputy governor of Karbala, Jawad al-Hasnawi, a follower of Muqtada al-Sadr, was forced to flee to Baghdad, having been charged with corruption. Likewise three elected members of the Karbala provincial council were charged with crimes. Al-Hasnawi met on Thursday with Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi (a Sunni fundamentalist who has poor relations with ISCI and the other main Shiite fundamentalist party, al-Da'wa, headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki).

Al-Hasnawi charged, according to al-Hayat, that an official inquiry into the disturbances at Karbala in late August (which left 52 dead and led Muqtada to freeze the activities of the Mahdi Army) had implicated the police and the shrine guards (dominated by members of the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) in killings then. He said that the charges against the Mahdi Army (Jaish al-Mahdi or JAM) were trumped up to take the focus off the police misbehavior.

Whatever the rights and wrongs, it seems clear that some sort of major power struggle broke out between the Sadrists and ISCI in Karbala in the last few months, and it appears to be the case that ISCI has won, and is now driving out the Sadrists from official political positions to which they had been elected. Since some proportion of the Karbala population does support Muqtada al-Sadr, leaving them disenfranchised is likely a recipe for further conflict. In fact, it seems likely that a Sadrist- ISCI struggle for the Shiite south will eventually come.

McClatchy reports that "4 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad" on Thursday. In Diyala province, "Four civilians were wounded when a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest attacked a café in Hibhib town west of Baquba city around 1:00 pm. "

Reuters reports more civil war violence for Thursday. Major incidents included the announcement of another US soldier killed in south Baghdad by a roadside bomb. Also, the bombing of the Kurdistan Democratic Party HQ in Kirkuk, which killed 13, has been followed up by another such incident. In Tal Asquf, north of Mosul, "One woman was killed and five people were wounded when a suicide car bomb exploded near the Kurdistan Democratic Party headquarters . . ."

These bombings appear to be part of a concerted campaign by Arab guerrillas against the Massoud Barzani faction of the Kurds, which have expansionist designs on Arab territory. Other attacks:


' NEAR FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed three police officers including the chief of the al-Waleed police station and wounded another five policemen when it targeted their patrol north of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. . .

THAR THAR - Iraqi police found seven decomposed and handcuffed bodies in Thar Thar, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MAHAWEEL - Two blindfolded, handcuffed bodies were found with gunshot wounds in Mahaweel, 75 km (45 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three Iraqi soldiers on patrol in the New Baghdad district of eastern Baghdad, police said.

BASRA - At least four people were wounded in a roadside bomb targeting the car of Basra Qahtan al Moussawi, the top education official in the southern governorate of Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said.

KUT - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one civilian and wounded four policemen west of Kut, 170 km (106 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said. '


The bombing in the southern Shiite city of Kut is probably another manifestation of the struggle between the Sadrists and ISCI. The Islamic Supreme Council tends to control the administration and police in the south, but the majority of the population seems increasingly to support Muqtada al-Sadr. The attempted assassination of the education minister of the far southern province of Basra likewise reflected intra-Shiite struggles for control of the provincial government there.

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10 Comments:

At 4:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The police in Karbala is simply the Badr militia. The accusations of 'Shiia Taliban' attrocities are common knowledge, but Badr are no less fundamentalist than Sadr. They are delaying their own attrocities until later, that's all.

I think declaring Hakim a winner needs qualifications. There is no way he can retain office in any kind of genuine elections, so it is temporary unless the elections are canceled or rigged.

The struggle will continue anyway. The US is actually siding with Hakim, possibly leading to an end the 6 month seizefire by Sadr which has reduced violence in Baghdad, in particular. This is a bad policy.

But the in-fighting is beneficial to the people as it weakens both sides and shows them for what they really are. It also hurts Iran's influence, which is probably the main motivation of the USA in handling this.

 
At 7:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Mahdi army has indeed been causing trouble since 2004 why wait until 2007 to announce it? It sounds like a cheap tactical move by SIC to dominate Shiite south.

 
At 1:31 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

ref : “it seems clear that some sort of major power struggle broke out... a Sadrist- ISCI struggle for the Shiite south

an interesting historical turn here would be the result of Sadr casting himself as Iraqi Nationalist and the ISCI:BADR Corps as Iranian Agents Provocateur.

"The Attack on IRAN" then takes place not on Iranian soil, as we have now envisioned it; rather, the battlespace becomes southern IRAQ. No new (legal or) operational precedent is needed to confront IRAN either in the blurry Shi'ite space that is its "Iraqi occupied territory," or the blurry Kurdish battlespace that is Iran's northwest.

in my opinion Sadr's best endgame is to approach the Sunnis with an "Iraqi Nationalist agenda," in effect: an oil-sharing agreement. The Saudis then recognize this balanced Sunni:Shi'ite "State" as "IRAQ".

IRAN:BADR Corps is then forced to either cede control of the South, or defend it: against an Arabian-recognized "IRAQ", backed by American armour and air power.

in any event, the Americans and Arabians appear resolved that IRAN shall not have even 'remote control' of the southern oil field. And from a strategic point of view, it makes more sense for the Americans to now re-deploy from Baghdad towards/to Basra, and remain there.

 
At 1:36 PM, Blogger Peter Attwood said...

What's so bad about the Iraqi security forces raiding the mercenaries? Isn't it sort of the JOB of security forces to provide security to the populace by reining in people who shoot whoever they please whenever they please with no accountability to anybody?

I'll be surprised if they actually follow though and do their job, but it would be a refreshing change if they did. And if the mrecenary companies find it impossible to work without the leeway to do whatever they damn please in someone else's country, so much the better if they're motivated to go away.

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Cole, please explain why you believe, as most sources have reported, that there has been a significant decrease in the level of violence around Baghdad. I would appreciate your input. I think Petraeus' surge has worked to an appreciable degree, and I believe he deserves some praise, albeit not the lion's share, as various other factors have worked their way into the mix. But nonetheless, the center of Iraq, Baghdad, has calmed down a bit. Sure it's still a fiery hellhole, but the surge has done something positive. Would you concur?

 
At 3:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did sadr lose and hence stop his militia to regroup, as it were, or did he freeze his militia, which caused Hakim to gain the upper hand?

I think its important to understand the order of events, before we can gain a full understanding.

i think he froze first then lost because in all out war he easily has the popular street support and the more zealous followers, and so wouldnt lose.

Any thoughs juan?

 
At 4:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Concerning US Military Fatalities

There were 7 fatalities on 11/5/07.

In general, I would guess that they are trying to keep the number under 1,000 for the 2007 calendar year. The record seems to indicate that they manage the calendar year total pretty carefully. Round numbers like 1,000 tend to attract attention.

As of Nov. 7, there had been 855 fatalities, with 15 in November. Thus, the totals for November and December would need to come in at under 80 with the daily average staying below 2.6.

Observers of the military situation should keep monitoring air strike numbers to see if they are relying on this tactic to deal with hot spots.

The highest one year periods have end dates in 2007. The highest one year total was 1,109 and first occurred during the year ending 8/23/2007.

However, I would also guess that they will go over 4,000 for the war early in 2008, e.g., in January, to have the media reaction over with prior to the actual primary dates.

In general, an average of three days is a good indicator of the current fatality level and a normal deviation from that is 2 in either direction.

 
At 6:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Cost of War

WARNING >> GRAPHIC PHOTOS

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/11/09/in-pictures-president-bu_n_71991.html

Seriously i want to know why he is smiling and laughing and chortling and giggling. Seriously.

 
At 7:11 PM, Blogger Chris said...

The Prime Minister was in Karbala recently to express concern with "infiltration" of the security forces there by people whose motivations are not "aligned with the long-term stability and security of Iraq". Wouldn't he be alluding to both Badr and the Sadr militia?

 
At 7:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dr. Cole,
Don't you think that describing the Iraqi Accord Front, as a "Sunni fundamentalist party" is somewhat inaccurate?

 

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