A McCain/ Huckabee Ticket?
Would Huckabee Sink McCain?
In his victory speech on super Tuesday, John McCain said:
' I want to congratulate Governor Huckabee and his supporters on their success today. Not for the first time, he has surprised the rest of us, and proved again his exceptional skills as a campaigner, and the extraordinary commitment and determination of the people who believe so passionately in him. I salute you.'
The friendliness of the words contrasted starkly with his similar congratulation to Mitt Romney.
Some think McCain will tap Huckabee for his vice president.
Although on the surface, this move might seem logical, since McCain can't get the evangelical vote out by himself, I think it is very likely that Huckabee could sink McCain's candidacy. There are 12 years of wacko sermons by Huckabee somewhere, which could well leak, and most ordinary Americans will be completely turned off by the weird assertions in them.
On the other side of the ledger, Huckabee's presence on the ticket may not be enough to stir enthusiasm among evangelicals themselves for McCain (despite all the talk of 'balancing the ticket', people actually tend to vote for the president).
A third of evangelicals now identify as Democrats, and over twenty percent say their faith in the Republican Party has been shaken. Some 67% say that ending the Iraq War is a high priority for them, and less than half talk about "winning" the war a la McCain. McCain's hundred years war is not exactly going to hearten this group.
Evangelicals are also very concerned about the economy, and many have concluded that fighting poverty is a high priority. McCain is not good on economics by his own admission, and he, despite his good press, is no friend of the poor.
So if evangelicals react to the top of the ticket, they aren't going to be energized by McCain, and it isn't clear that a weak Huckabee VP in waiting will be enough to change their minds.
And, there are lots more Huckabee gaffes and weirdnesses out there, like saying that Mormons believe satan is Jesus' brother or saying that Pakistani illegal aliens are second only to Mexicans in numbers or saying that the Palestinian state should be established in Egypt or Saudi Arabia, or saying that Saddam's WMD is now in Jordan (a US ally), etc., etc. Yes, he comes across as likeable on t.v. But all it would take is for the press to start paying close attention to his bizarre pronouncements, and the likeability quotient could fall rapidly. And, he could take McCain down with him.
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/06/2008 12:30:00 AM
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25 Comments:
Did anyone notice Senator Quisling,,,Lieberman was at McCain's speech. Any respect I have for McCain will evaporate if Lieberman gets the VP nod.....
The Mormon responses to Huckabee's comment (mean spirited and opportunistic as it was) explained why they believed Christ and Lucifer were "spirit brothers," they didn't deny it.
Juan,
I think you are "misunderestimating" Huckabee. From a progressive point of view, he is a very interesting politician with many lessons to teach: look how far he has gone with practically no money at all. With something like $10m he has sunk Mitt Romney with all his millions.
Obviously there is never going to be a working class party in the USA if it depends on rich donors, even if they are movie stars, this is something Howard Dean has pointed out repeatedly. Huckabee's grassroots work has been sensational and he has done it all with "the widow's mite".
It also appears that something very interesting is happening within the evangelical community, polls are showing them moving to left on many issues of fighting poverty, global warming, health care and the like, also it is significant that Huckabee is known not to be and never to have been a racist. For a southern populist, this is very significant in itself. It says much about him and much more about those who vote for him.
Although Huckabee won't lead it, I sense that something like an evangelical version of "Liberation Theology" could be brewing in "fly over America" and with no Ratzinger to cut it down. There is really nothing in a literal reading of the scriptures that would lead us to imagine Jesus possessing fire arms or reducing taxes for the rich.
Once upon a time working class white people voted Democrat and supported FDR. The "Reagan Democrat" is a perverse product of a frightened reaction by working whites to rapid and destabilizing social changes that reaction was used to destroy unions etc.
It is also noteworthy that many African Americans are as or more socially conservative than working whites, so if racism is taken out of the mix, then it might be possible to bridge the gap between the white and black working class on issues of common interest to both. The failure to bridge that gap is at the heart of the failure of such things as universal health care.
As to Huckabee's supporters being satisfied with his being VP. Obviously these are people that believe in divine intervention in human affairs, so that having their man a heartbeat away from the presidency, when that heart is over 70 and in a body that has been considerably dinged up, might seem a "heaven sent" opportunity.
Prof. Cole,
Please take a look at Simon Jenkins' withering excoriation of the Surveillance/Security Apparat here in the UK and the pretty pass it's brought us to: namely, Say Goodbye to Civil Liberties/Say Hello to Police State, UK.
It's about the UK but all of it - ALL OF IT - is equally applicable to the U.S.
You've got several hundred thousand readers - this piece is so trenchant and so timely - and indeed, so troubling - that it needs the widest possible "circulation". Please give it a fillip - it needs and deserves the "go viral" treatment.
I concur about people voting for the president and the pointlessness of a McCain-Huckabee ticket.
I do, however, wonder about a Huckabee-McCain ticket. It would better fit the Bush-Cheney pattern: younger slicker guy up front, crazy old warmonger doing the real work in the back. And it would solve the evangelical problem.
Arrrrgggghhhhhh. Left out the "find" details. The Jenkins piece - it's entitled Britain is Slithering Down the Road Towards a Police State - is in today's (Feb. 6) Guardian. The URL is: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2252931,00.html
While Huck might help with his base, McCain won't have that problem when he gets to the general and selects a VP, especially if Hilary gets the nod. He'll need help drawing from the independents and moderate Democrats, and that certainly won't be the likes of a pol that has stated that we should change the Constitution to align to the Bible. Connecticut Joe comes from the correct corner of the country but is seen as a turncoat by many on the left. Maybe, a moderate like Christie Todd Whitman. Sure, the combination might upset the far right, but even Rush doesn't want the Dems having a free pass for judges for the next 8 years.
Is Anonymous referring to
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2253033,00.html
looks like it can be a vote for McCain-Cheney, America needs to keep the terrorists on the run.
Obama-Osama will not do it.
'But all it would take is for the press to start paying close attention...'
Um, Juan, pal, buddy, friend of mine, compadre, amigo... since when did the press take notice of anything these guys do!!!!
Originally a ron paul guy, im now throwing in with Obama seeing as how the media basically stone walled paul.
huckabee's "surprising-to-the-media" southern state victories demonstrate once again that there is a "southern regional voting block" which has been a feature of our politics since the birth of our country
Actually Mormons do believe that Jesus is Satan's brother. Maybe Hucksterbee shouldn't have said so -- apparently we aren't supposed to discuss the actual beliefs of people who make repeated, loud public protestations of being people "of faith" -- but the assertion is not objectively false.
While we're on the subject, Hucksterbee believes that the earth is 6,000 years old, and that the end of time is near. Are we allowed to point that out in public?
A McCain - Lindsey Graham Ticket?
The "12 years of wacko sermons" you say might leak and discredit a McCain-Huckabee ticket probably contain nothing more "zany" that a typical chapter out of Revelation. The sermons probably match the world view of 1/4 the population that might otherwise not vote at all. Remember, it was Ross Perot's theft of libertarian or renegade G.H.W. Bush votes that helped Clinton I ascend to the throne in 1992, not enamorment with Clinton II's plans for health care reform. If Huckabee helpd fasten the Left Behind and PTL Network audiences to the GOP ticket, McCain may win. To paraphrase Henry IV of France, the White House is worth a revival meetin'.
Hi,
Just want to toss in that the Governor of Minnesota, Pawlenty, is a Fundamentalist Protestant, has been campaigning for McCain for over 2 years, is the national co-chairman of McCain’s presidential campaign, and is going with McCain to Germany for a security conference this weekend.
Lot's of nodding here in Minnesota that Pawlenty will be the VP candidate.
>But all it would take is for the press to start paying >close attention to his bizarre pronouncements,...
like that'll happen in the next 20,000 years.
Excellent analysis - it has proven very difficult for the MSM to recognize that much of evangelicalism has divorced the religious right, and, as you point out, is aligned now with the left on many issues.
David's comments above about Huckabee are very interesting. After watching all the big five candidates debate, my opinion is that Huckabee is the most relaxed, articulate, and intelligent of the group. The rest seem to answer every question with a string of self serving cliches. If they have some "presidential"/"leader of the free world" gene, it's not obvious.
But if Huck is staunchly wedded to his sectarianism and his bizarre views on some matters (eliminating the income tax comes to mind), then I can't visualize him as a good president.
A secular, middle of the road, Huckabee might make a very good president.
The plot thickens:
1. McCain will not pick Huckabee. He almost has the nomination locked up and all he has to do is wait the media hype out. I suspect he will pick someone like Lindsay Graham. Supposedly Lieberman said he wouldn't run again for VP.
2. That the country is moving left is apparent. The Republican machine that got Bush elected cannot get its new puppet, Romney, nominated. They have made too many enemies.
3. Obama and Clinton are neck and neck. Obama has tasted the possibility that he could actually be elected president. Both sides have to figure out how to knock out their opponent, they hope with subtlety that won't be noticed. So far the MSM has jumped on the Clintons while ignoring Obama's strikes.
Stay tuned.
There have been a swathe of undersea cables damaged in the last week, and a rather troubling pattern is emerging. Richard Sauder has tracked eight incidents:
1) one off of Marseille, France
2) two off of Alexandria, Egypt
3) one off of Dubai, in the Persian Gulf
4) one off of Bandar Abbas, Iran in the Persian Gulf
5) one between Qatar and the UAE, in the Persian Gulf
6) one in the Suez, Egypt
7) one near Penang, Malaysia
8) initially unreported cable cut on 23 January 2008 (Persian Gulf?)
Three things stand out about these incidents:
1) all of them, save one, have occurred in waters near predominantly Muslim nations, causing disruption in those countries;
2) all but two of the cut/damaged cables are in Middle Eastern waters;
3) so many like incidents in such a short period of time suggests that they are not accidents, but are in fact deliberate acts, i.e., sabotage.
For the record: Mormon doctrine holds that Lucifer and Jesus Christ are both spirit children of God, The Heavenly Father, as are we all, humans and angels. SO not only are Jesus and Satan brothers, they are our brothers too.
I mean, we are made in God's image, no?
On Huckabee and the leftward trend among evangelicals:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0204/p09s02-coop.html
McCain's choice here would be important to all of us because of his advanced age and cancer recurrence. I would guess the actuarial numbers would suggest that McCain might not finish two terms, meaning we would be stuck with his VP choice.
>And, he could take McCain down with him.
And you have a problem with this??
I would be happy if Satan himself became McCain's running mate. Whatever it takes to consign the Republican Party (or the right wing of the Republicrats, take your pick) to the dustbin of history where they belong.
McCain will never pick Huckabee. He can’t. If Huckabee is V.P., McCain will lose. He will lose because he will lose the west. Huckabee made a tactical mistake when he asked in a New York Times article if Mormon’s believed that Satan and Jesus were brothers after a response to the question. “Do you believe that Mormonism is a religion or a cult?” He was a keynote speaker at the 1997 Southern Babtist Convention in Salt Lake City, where the purpose of the convention was to convice Mormons that thier church was a cult and to convert them to christianity. He has kept a number of his sermons hidden from public record, most likely because there is hardly a southern babtist preaher out there who has not dilivered sermons about the dangers of Mormons, Jehovahs Witnesses, Catholics, and Scientologists.
There are millions of Mormons in the west and they all loath Huckabee for his Anti-Mormons comments. They will never vote for him. He had less than 1% of the vote in the Utah primary, his lowest showing. McCain is already on shaking ground with the Mormons after he his mother’s famous anti-mormon comments and his own comment that he “didn’t know” if Mormons were Christians. Polls have shown that Utah will vote Obama before they vote for a ticket with Huckabee. It’s not just Utah. He will lose Arizona. High Mormon population. He will lose California. He probably would anyway, but he will also lose Washington and Oregon. Swing states. High Mormon population. He will lose Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, and Nevada. All states with a lot of Mormons and all red states that McCain/Huckabee would otherwise win. That being said, I’m no Romney fan, and if he picked Romney, he would lose the south. He needs to pick someone that hasn’t burnt bridges with vital constituancies.
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