Maliki Warns US on Iran;
Will not allow Iraqi air space or land in any US Attack
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told Bush Friday by video conference that the US could not use Iraqi territory or airspace to attack neighboring Iran. He basically told Bush to suck it up and negotiate with Ahmadinejad. It is amazing what $70 billion a year in petroleum revenue will do for a prime minister's self-esteem. Al-Maliki met with top Iranian leaders in Tehran recently and appears to have reassured them that Washington would not be allowed to use Iraq as a springboard for an assault. Although some are wondering if al-Maliki is making a declaration of independence from the US, in fact he is just continuing the policy of Iraq's ruling Shiites since 2005 of seeking good relations with both Washington and Tehran.
Shiites demonstrated in Sadr City, Kufa and other southern Iraqi cities in the thousands on Friday against the Status of Forces Agreement being hammered out between the Iraqi government and the Bush administration, complaining that it sells out Iraq's sovereignty to the US.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that al-Maliki said that Iraq has been able to end the ethnic war that some forces, internal and external, had sought to ignite. Speaking at a commemoration of the fifth anniversary of the killing of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim [on the Muslim lunar calendar] by a huge car bomb on Aug. 29, 2003, al-Maliki said that the siege of Baghdad had been broken.
But it was in 2004-2005 that Sunni Arab guerrillas were besieging Baghdad. In 2006-2008 the Shiite militias pushed them back and ethnically cleansed about half of the Sunnis from the city. So the most recent significant change is not a breaking of the Sunni siege but the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Sunnis from their homes. And, I'm afraid that you can't declare the war over as long as hundreds of civilians and more dozens or hundreds of "insurgents" are being killed every month. (The figure of Iraqi dead issued by the US per month excludes killed insurgents and also excludes civilians whose cause of death cannot surely be laid at the feet of political violence).
For an alternative interpretation of how the violence in Baghdad was reduced, see Gregg Gordon.
At the same event, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the clerical leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (al-Maliki's main backer in parliament), commended al-Maliki for his military campaigns against the [Mahdi Army] militiamen, saying it was important to establish a monopoly over the use of weaponry in the hands of the government. He also called for the expulsion from Iraq of some 4,000 Iranian activists from the Mujahidin-e Khalq organization, which the US lists as a terrorist group. Al-Hakim is head of the rival Badr Corps paramilitary, trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and so wants to see rivals such as the Mahdi Army and the Mojahidin-e Khalq weakened.
Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Shaikh Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala'i called for Iraq to sell oil to Turkey at a discount in return for a Turkish pledge to raise the level of the water in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. They have their headwaters in Anatolia, where Turkey is doing some damming for irrigation. The rivers have been low this spring, harming Iraqi agriculture and raising fears that Turkish dams are beginning to harm Iraq. In part also because of the disappointing rainy season in February, the low water level has allegedly driven many Iraqi poor farmers off their lands to seek work as day laborers in the cities.
As usual with Sistani's representatives, al-Karbala'i is talking good sense when he suggests trading cheaper oil for increased water.
McClatchy reports political violence on Saturday:
Baghdad
- On Friday night a roadside bombed detonated near the Salama hospital in Yarmouk neighborhood (west Baghdad). Two people were killed and eight others were injured.
- Around 11 am a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Karrada neighborhood near Andalus intersection downtown Baghdad. Two people were injured including one policeman.
- Police found 3 dead bodies in Baghdad : 2 were found in west Baghdad (Karkh bank); 1 in Saidiyah and 1 in Washash. While 1 was found in Ameen in east Baghdad in Risafa bank.
Kirkuk
- In the morning a roadside bomb targeted an official of the patriotic united of Kurdistan’s convoy. No casualties reported.
Diyala
- On Friday evening gunmen planted a bomb near a house at Shuhdaa neighborhood in Jalwlaa (northeast Baquba). Six people from one family were injured when the bomb exploded (a wife, four daughters and a son).
Anbar
- At 10:55 am a roadside targeted Khalid Abu Mihahid a leader of the Islamic party in Falluja near the Islamic headquarter. He was injured with two of his guards."
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/06/2008 01:09:00 AM
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5 Comments:
So how would Maliki prevent the US from using Iraqi airspace for any thing they like? I know, he does a Superman and physically stops the US jets in air.
A prominent Green Zone "leader" once said in London that one American soldier and his dog are all what it takes to 'disappear' him or any of others. But they sure talk big despite that.
Maliki is Michelin balloon: big and widely visible from the outside, but only hot-air inside. He reputedly made a living for years selling worry-beads in the suks of Damascus, being a minor figure in the Da'wa party in exile. Listen to him now!
Al-Maliki-GW Bush tough talk: silly puppets show.
Well it's good to hear Maliki speaking for Iraqi consumption I guess. But in point of fact George XLIII will do whatever he wants to in Iraq.
This is like Abbas telling the Israelis that they cannot attack Jordan from the occupied West Bank.
Abbas knows and Maliki knows that not only can Israel and the US do whatever they want to in "their" countries but that their individual lives and the lives of their families are forfeit whenever they are deemed to be of no further use to the occupiers.
So, perhaps Maliki knows that the attack on Iran will come from offshore.
He might as well "order" something his puppeteers are not going to do in any case not to take place, and then take credit for stopping the rain.
"(The figure of Iraqi dead issued by the US per month excludes killed insurgents and also excludes civilians whose cause of death cannot surely be laid at the feet of political violence). "
This is incorrect. All IA, IP, and civilian deaths from all causes are listed (including decayed bodies that might have died years ago but where discovered during the month.)
In fact, the deaths are broken down by category (IP, IA, government employees, terrorist related etc.)
The only deaths not included in the headline number is the number of enemy combatants killed (although this data is also tabulated.) But not many of them have died in over a month.
On a different note, the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi national police are loyal to Maliki. The Iraqi army is rapidly becoming the most powerful army in Arab history, although it is not there yet. There is no way that the US government is willing to fight the Iraqi army.
Please ask any questions you have regarding the ISF here:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/07/iraqi_security_force_17.php
I would notice that Mosul suffered 13 violent incidents in the last week, the lowest since 2004. The IA has won an important victory there. Overall, there are now 150 to 200 violent incidents a week inside Iraq down from 1200 to 1800 in late 2006.
Much of Maliki’s renewed confidence comes from the IA, in addition to $70 billion in annual tax revenue.
Al-Maliki is sending a signal to Tehran:
If the israelis and or Americans ignore his prohibition of using Iraqi airspace to attack Iran but they fly through anyway that will illustrate al-Maliki is only a figurehead. He's not really in political control of Iraq. The Americans are.
That lets al-Maliki off the hook with Tehran (and the United States) since israeli/U.S. flights through Iraqi airspace will be viewed as israeli/U.S. disrespect and dismissal of Al-Maliki's authority. If he immediately ceases cooperation with the Americans after such an attack the Americans won't be able to complain much and it will be difficult for them to continue portraying al-Maliki as the man in charge of Iraq.
In the unlikely case of an israeli or American attack on Iran Al-Maliki is hoping that the Iranians understand he went out on a limb but the Americans and israelis ignored him. He's trying to limit the hypothetical Iranian response to strictly israeli and American assets in the event of an attack on Iran. He's telling Tehran ahead of time "I'll do what I can publicly but privately it's out of my hands. I'm virtually powerless against either of them militarily."
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