Allegations of Israeli Plan to Attack Iran from Georgia
This story has been around for a week or so, alleging that Israel was planning to strike at Iran from Georgia.
Arnaud de Borchgrave put it more cautiously, that the Israelis thought of their jets in Georgia as useful in case they decided to do a preemptive strike on Iran.
More recently, deputy speaker of the Russian parliament, Sergei Markov, seems to have alleged an even more aggressive plan on Israel's part.
Debka also looks at the issue.
Personally, I don't understand how this could work. You'd have to fly over Armenia, which is an ally of Iran and would not permit it. Or over Turkey, which is out of the question. Or over Azerbaijan, which I also don't think would permit it. Surely both the small Caucasian states have anti-aircraft batteries and some jets. Turkey is a major military power in the region.
And then Georgia is not so far from Iran, which has 12 times its population, and could wreak a horrible revenge.
The only way Iran could be forestalled would be if Georgia was admitted to NATO first so that an attack on one would then be an attack on all. But NATO would not approve of Georgia lending its military facilities to a non-member for military aggression.
Just makes no sense to me. Maybe Israeli aircraft could do some kind of surveillance on Iran from Georgia? Or Borchgrave's idea of a contingency plan for a preemptive strike if war started brewing is plausible. Israel using Georgia as a base for attacking a third country, I don't think so.
posted by Juan Cole @ 9/05/2008 05:40:00 PM
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19 Comments:
The story of Georgia-Israel may be planted to get the support of christian right wing to support the Georgian cause. You have people that believe in creation as a science, the last thing these folks would do is to look at map. They have deep pockets, you start using Georgia and Israel against an Muslim country... you can raise some cash. End of the day that is what it has become, isn't it?
The bombing of Iran is not a technical issue. Israel has the capability to do it. The question is what is going to happen the day after.
Re Israel of the Caucusus:
Labelled 'commentary', but with a lot of specifics from Borchgrave, a UPI editor.
Saakishvili comes off as something of a cargo cult leader. If he had jewish-israeli ministers in his gov't bringing in israeli arms ... As Russian tanks cut his E-W highway at Gori on 8/12, his (apparently) non jewish foreign minister is making prayer requests to Isreali zionist rabbis?
"Open Barley... Open Flax... oy vey, what was that magic word..."
Improbable as it sounds, launching an Israeli attack on Iran out of Georgia might have worked, tactically. Israeli bombers could be shipped in disassembled, with the sale of armored vehicles, avoiding part of the overflight issue.
The outbound planes could attempt a different routing, or ditched and the pilots recovered at sea, an acceptable cost of doing business. (Israeli contractors have been modifying and test-demonstrating Su 25 bombers being produced in a Tbilisi factory, which proves nothing.)
The strategic fallout is about the same, wherever the runway, If Dick Cheney's invisible hand was supporting such a venture, he might consider igniting a general conflagration to be a successful transfer of executive power.
With all this talk about attacking Iran now on the premises that at some future time it may develop nuclear weapons, and then immediately drop them on Israel, one might expect Iran to think itself justified in bombing Israel's existing nuclear stockpile.
But that of course would be a violation of international hegemonic law, and the US would have no alternative but to help Israel wipe Iran off the face of the earth.
In the rarefied air of "strategic thinkers" and "geopolitical experts" there is no time to squander thought on the unpredictable realities and horrible consequences of military violence. In fact to think in such a manner is to eliminate oneself as a potential adviser to our national leaders. Time is much better spent speculating, scenarios, tactics, and, of course, ordinance.
Iraq and Afghanistan are wonderful examples of products produced in rarefied air.
Maybe Sarah Palin with her brilliant "why can't we all get along" speech the other night, and her love of birth, if not life, can help out.
I am enjoying the informed comments and I'd like to pose a question.
What is the real reason for the Israeli fervor to attack Iran?
In other words, the "reason" is ostensibly to prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons, but in a region where revenge is measured in centuries, isn't Israel just guaranteeing their ultimate destruction by attacking Iran?
I say that because even if Iran gets bombed into the stone age now, when they come back, they will have a bomb marked Tel Aviv on it. As weapons follow the technology curve, Iran along with every other country of any size is going to have a nuclear weapon. It's just a matter of time. Also, at what point do Russia and China draw the line to protect their enormous investments in Iran?
So is this just a case of warped vision by the lsraeli leadership or is there a different real reason for bombing Iran? Frankly it seems to me that it could be a tactical success but a strategic error.
Hey, look who's been to Azerbaijan recently!
Juan,
Does this have legs?
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13401
I'd like to see Israel strike out on its own, without the benefit of U.S. intervention in the event of retaliation. just to see what happens.
NATO should have been disbanded when the Soviet Union fell. Since it has only expanded since then, it would be appropriate for Russia to petition for membership in NATO. just to see what happens
And President Gul goes to Armenia. Doubtless the Russians will be mentioning this at the CSTO summit to the Armenian delegation.
Is this the return of the Ottomans?
Centrist Turkish media outlets have been generally supportive of Gul’s pending visit. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan -- a close Turkish ally, as well as a bitter enemy of Armenia -- has given its official blessing to the trip. On September 4, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijani leaders "welcome this initiative positively," the Turkish daily Hurriyet reported.
A September 3 statement from Gul’s office noted that the Turkish president had accepted Sarkisian’s invitation to "create a new climate of friendship in the region" and to "lift the obstacles preventing the coming together of two peoples who share a common history."
The statement echoes sentiments expressed by Sargsyan, who in a July 8 Wall St. Journal commentary, entitled "We Are Ready to Talk to Turkey," expressed a desire for "a new phase of dialogue with the government and people of Turkey, with the goal of normalizing relations and opening our common border."
Although officials in both countries seem eager to explore a rapprochement, there are many on both sides who remain suspicious. Ruben Safrastian, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, is among the skeptics in Yerevan who do not believe the visit will live up to its hype. Safrastian argues that Turkey is not prepared to deviate dramatically from its current policy on Armenia. Gul’s last-minute decision to accept Sarkisian’s invitation was more likely dictated both by regional tensions linked to Russia’s war with Georgia, and by an upcoming debate in the US Congress about Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 slaughter of thousands of ethnic Armenians, Safrastian suggested.
"There may be some small change that will result in some thaw between the two countries, however, Gul will try to use the visit to strengthen his positions in the region," Safrastian said. "The Turks will use this visit to prove their goodwill. However, in reality, they will do everything to use it in their interest."
I tend to agree with the Russian take on this.
1. Israel effectively controls the military of Georgia. The defense minister is Israeli, if I'm not mistaken.
2. Azerbaijan is considered an "Economic and strategic Israeli outpost" (see the CIA website).
3. It would be a simple matter to get a wink from Azerbaijan, fly over them to the Caspian and directly down to Tehran and take out the two Nuclear sites nearby, as well as the one closer to the Georgian border (see CIA website), if they desired.
Just using the information you can get by using Google, you can see that Iran is basically fully surrounded by at least 22 major U.S. military bases and 3 naval fleets.
Of course it is also easy to see where Iran has their own bases in other countries and how they dramatically surround the USA with bases...NOT.
Terry
The Israelis could do a milk run through the Ukraine and Georgia. Albeit, taking notice that 30% of Ukrainians and Georgians are pro-Russia.
As I write, Bush has used the nominal humanitarian crisis in Georgia, to bring Aegis technology into the Black Sea. By now, the Russians have told Iran how to take out same, at the instance of any war.
What about the Turks? In a bizarre development, the Turkish leader has announced that he will visit Armenia. In addition, he proposed a regional settlement to the Caucasus Crisis, which would bring in current enemies. Only regime change in Georgia could cement the deal. But, Condi Rice announced a $1.4 billion aid package to the unpopular Saakashvili regime.
http://www.panarmenian.net/library/eng/?nid=197
Then there is the American media. They downplayed the collapse of the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine, in face of realism of Russia's regional interests. Indeed, soon a majority of Poles will reject the insane ABM scheme for Eastern Europe. With a Foreign Policy expert as VP, Americans will at long last learn that Bush and McCain are reckless. Bush was an oil patch brat; McCain is a Pentagon brat. Nothing new is in the offing.
Hopefully, Americans will perceive the current Neocon plutocracy as a failure. However, if Madison Avenue can portray McCain as essential, by running a Wag-the-Dog war, then disaster will follow.
Perhaps Georgia could join NATO after the jets took off?
Who's to say the Israeli jets wouldn't have the markings and the fly-over codes of US jets, with English speaking Israeli pilots who would tell the radar ground crews that this was part of some US mission?
And what were IDF ground crews doing in S. Georgia and why did those two air bases there get improvements to handle American made, IDF F-16I fighter-bombers?
Israel is known for its duplicity and cunning when it comes to false-flag attacks, just look at their attack on the USS Liberty and their complicity in 9/11.
To soley dismiss this because of worries that adjoining countries to Georgia that the IDF jets would fly over is underestimating Israel's ability to wage war against anyone in that region who is "uppity" enough to want to survive and thrive outside the Tel Aviv-Washington, DC-London Axis of Evil.
Remember when the IDF blew apart some building in Syria and flew over part of Turkey during that mission?
Not much in the way of complaints or action from Turkey during or after that raid, was there?
Dear Professor Cole
If the Israelis have the inflight refueling capability to take the long way round and go out past Eilat down the Red Sea and then swing round Saudi they solve the problem of their initial assault, plus they get an element of surprise.
(Gosh sounds like June 1967, No?)
The anlysis is that they need many sequential strikes to achieve a substantial amount of damage and their pilots can't stay awake to do a tere and back very often.
It would make sense then to overfly Teheran and continue up the Caspian to land at Georgian fields. There they can rearm and fly short missions from there on.
If the Iranian Radar coverage and SAM batteries are facing towards the south and west in anticpation of the attacks from there there may be a radar hole facing north.
That at least is how I might plan it.
If the Russians blew the airfields and the stores then it is a non runner unless they use Tblisi.
you forget to mention two important details in this story
1 that the israélis planned to camouflage their planes so as to make think they were américans
2 that there is an aerial corridor over azerbaidjian used by nato and US planes for supplying their troups in Afghanistan that could have been used by israéli planes disguised as US planes to enter Iran air space and leave it back to Georgia
others things :
dvkafiles internet site is closed to the israeli miltary intelligence so be careful of what they publish
Washington and Paris won't condemn any aérial attack by Israel that what they said (Sarkozy just said it in Damas and Bush, and the next obama or McCain too)
Russia by acting in Georgia and dismantling Two georgian bases who were going to be used for attacking Iran just prevented a third world war
Si this is a plausible scenario I disagree completely with you
Interesting commentary. I have to hand it to Terry though:
"Azerbaijan is considered an "Economic and strategic Israeli outpost" (see the CIA website).
3. It would be a simple matter to get a wink from Azerbaijan"
We have seen this before with overflights. Even the recent attack on Syria involved such a violation of air sovereignty.
If Israel disguised their planes as being U.S. planes and used them to attack another country, Israel is committing something like an act of war against the United States. They would essentially be framing the U.S. for an attack on another nation.
There ought to be a work around for flying over another nation's airspace. If you fly high enough I think enforcement becomes 9/10ths of the law. say, 20 or 30 miles up.
I don't think it matters how Israel marks or identifies it's planes, at least after they drop the bombs. The US and Israel are seen as one in the same and for all practical purposes they are. The only question is who directs whom.
The US has been very clear that they will support Israel in any conflict with Iran through both the president and the vice president. So if Israel engages, the US is all in and everyone understands that. Therefore, retaliation will be directed at both parties and Iranian officials have publicly stated that as well.
What I don't understand about all this preemptive stike by israel against Iran
I don't know where the people have their head stuffed.
People are giving a lot of credibility to israel and forgetting 2006 war in lebanon.
Let me explain this with a simple number.
israel has a population of 5 mil, Iran has a population of close to 80 mil not verified by census.
Bottom line israel can be digging their own grave by an action like this, on the other hand u.s would be a diffrent story with consquences remain to be found out
The scenario described is very plausible, considering that 1) Israel has both financial/military connections with the Georgian regime; 2) Israel has similiar realtions with the Turks; 3) Israel has financial interests that involve Azerbaijan, regarding the BCT pipeline with it's terminus in the Baku area...So, overflights of these countries by Israeli planes, especially if done 'discretely' pose no special problems;Columsict Will Thomas, on his website 'Convergence'has made allegations that Israel, in 2007, made two attempts at pre-emptive strikes on Iran, by flying through Jordanian and Iraqi airspace, but were turned away both time by the US Air Force in Iraq...Sound far-fetched?...Possibly, but not as far-fetched as the proposition that Osama Bin Laden masterminded the 9-11 attacks...Anyway, long and short of it is this: Although such an Israeli attack would have extremely serious ramification, the military/intelligence/organized crime factions that rule Israel are not what a normal person would consider as 'sane'...They have a different 'world view' and are no strangers to the concept of sneak or 'false flag' attacks.
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