Olmert Announces Ceasefire;
Mearsheimer on Gaza
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has announced a ceasefire in the Israeli assault on the population of the Gaza Strip, beginning at midnight Saturday, Israeli time. He will not withdraw Israeli ground troops, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni threatened a renewal of attacks if Hamas fired more rockets at Israel. Hamas rockets have killed 4 Israelis during this conflict; Israeli forces have killed some 1205 Palestinians, many of them innocent civilians and others ordinary policemen. On Saturday, AP reports,
' A total of 13 Palestinians were killed in battles throughout Gaza Saturday, Palestinian medics said. John Ging, the top U.N. official in Gaza, condemned the attack on Beit Lahiya that killed the two boys — the latest in a series of Israeli shellings that have struck U.N. installations. "The question that has to be asked is for all those children and all those innocent people who have been killed in this conflict. Were they war crimes? Were they war crimes that resulted in the deaths of the innocents during this conflict? That question has to be answered," he said.'
John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago presents absolutely the clearest and most concise account of the Gaza atrocity in The American Conservative.
Mearsheimer argues that diminishing Hamas or stopping the rockets are subsidiary goals for Olmert to the more central one of controlling all of historical Palestine via an Iron Wall policy that permanently subjugates the Palestinian population and ensures Israeli control of Palestinian land, air and water.
Mearsheimer points out that this goal cannot be achieved, and certainly not by the brutal method of a total war on the Palestinian population. The likely outcome even in the case of relative Israeli success is a permanent Apartheid, which itself will doom Israel.
Also, Jonathan Shainin argues that there will be no real ceasefire without a political settlement and a Palestinian state.
And, M.J. Rosenberg Encourages Obama to buck the Israel lobbies and press full steam ahead for a resolution, underlining that other presidents have succeeded in charting an independent course when they were at the height of their popularity.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 1/17/2009 04:30:00 PM
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15 Comments:
Mouin Rabbani presents an analysis that is similar to Mearsheimer's, but it is more thorough and well supported:
http://www.merip.org/mero/mero010709.html
Lots of luck obtaining a true peace settlement. It takes two to make that work and if the history of the area is any indication, at the very least one of the two sides will not allow a 'political' solution to work.
Could it also be that the "cease fire" is the result of a failed baiting of Iran and Hizballah in Lebanon. A lot of people suspected that the Hizb in S. Lebanon would have opened a front in support of the Palestinians. This would have given the Israelis and defacto the US the excuse for an eleventh hour attack on Iran (the puppetmaster of Hizballah, or so it goes) A very cool handed Iran probably reigned in Hizballah and prevented this entrappment. I think this is the Machiavellian strategy that the Israelis are known for.
This is a horrifically cynical and brutal move by Israel, in my opinion. Expect a propaganda wave to accompany it, reiterating endlessly the theme that Hamas is a terrorist organization that doesn't want peace (even though Hamas leaders have made it clear that they do seek peace).
Let me put up some proposed benchmarks that we should use to determine if this unilateral ceasefire is sincere as a step towards peace on the part of Israel: if peace is what Israel really wants, 1) they will let reporters in, 2) Israel will not tighten its chokehold, nor will it conduct search, seize, destroy, assasinate operations and 3) Israel will open the borders to aid, international observers, etc..
Does anybody think that Israel will do any of these things? Of course not. What they are after, in my opinion, is to seize upon some excuse to renew their attacks.
Dear Professor Cole
I am struck by the fact thet the Israeli Army is not leaving Gaza.
Have they returned to the status quo ante before they tried playing democracy and holding elections at the behest of the departing Bush?
When do you suspect the settlers return to Neve Deakalim? Perhaps they will wait till after Mr Obama's inauguration as you suggest.
I hope Hamas will realize, at this point, that it needs to cease any fighting of any kind. I hope that leaders of both Hamas and Israel will face war crimes charges.
But I fear that what is more likely is that Israel will pivot and attack Lebanon.
I think there should be new elections in Gaza as soon as possible. Meantime, we should push for a fair peace. Why is it our business? Because Israel is basically a proxy of ours (though Israel's leaders seem to see the relationship the other way).
The Israeli leadership always talks about peace and how they are eager to have peace. I do not know how peace can be achieved and the two states dream is materialized, when Israel is all the time making new settlements, expanding existing settlements, confiscating the lands of the Palestinians, demolishing their homes, surrounding them with fences, etc. What is left for the poor Palestinians? Such talk is a part of the big lie and deception that have been going on for a long time.
Dear Joe Six Pack,
Please spend some time actually learning about the history, and that will help you to understand which one of the two sides is not interested in a "political" solution.
"...other presidents have succeeded in charting an independent course when they were at the height of their popularity."
Though I am not certain, it wouldn't surprise me that, certainly when it comes to Israel, they were likely in their second term also.
I read all the postings yesterday on MJ's blog on TPM, and some were pretty good, so I decided to respond to one. But after registering, I never received my email confirmation and password.
Was that because I listed "Informed Comment" and "Antiwar.com" as some of my favorite websites? And "The Israel Lobby" and "Nemesis" as some of my favorite books?
Has anyone else had this kind of experience?
I want to commend to you all the work (wordy, but also effective in the smaller context) of David Bromwich here found in HuffPost.
The Mearsheim piece is also very effective, and presents much the same important thesis: That we should watch people's actions and worry less about their rhetoric.
Again, Professor Cole, Thanks for all you do.
FDA
"I hope Hamas will realize, at this point, that it needs to cease any fighting of any kind."
Hamas will realize that as soon as Israel will realize it needs to cease attacking them.
"I think there should be new elections in Gaza as soon as possible."
For what purpose? Do you really believe the results would be different the next time? Do you think the Palestinians appreciate Fatah now?
American has finally overcome, in some ways, the scourge of racism. Now we must direct our attention to the bigotry of anti-Semitism, which degrades us all. Bigotry of any sort is unacceptable. Those who back Hamas and support attacks on civilians are exactly the same in every way as those who lynched blacks or who beat up gay people. It's the vilest and most disgusting type of behavior imaginable, and it is essential that we confront and address it as the threat to the nation that it is. It's time to take a strong stand, and begin by prosecuting for hate crimes those who spread lies about Jews and encourage mindless violence against them. They must be taught what it means to be an American, and that this country will not tolerate prejudice and bigotry in any way.
Anonymous, why are you discussing anti-semitism? Did someone post something offensive? A comment that is attacking Jews? Which one of the previous posts "spread lies about Jews and encourage violence against them"? In a discussion of Israel / Palestinians where anti-semitism is not mentioned even once, a call to prosecute anti-semitism as a hate crime comes across loud and clear with the message that any critic of Israel will be attacked as an anti-semite.
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