Dilemma for Obama in Mideast;
Israeli Elections too Close to Call;
Far Right Parties Ascendent
Reuters says that Israel's elections on Tuesday are too close to call. Binyamin Netanyahu of the far right Likud Party had been the front runner, but the race has recently been tightening. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, a far, far-right faction that advocates ethnically cleansing Palestinians, has been drawing votes away from the Likud. If the Knesset, with 120 seats, is divided among three or four smaller parties rather than one or two big ones, the resulting government will be unstable and Lieberman could emerge as its kingmaker, since smaller parties will be needed to get the ruling party to 51% on important votes. Netanyahu of the Likud has vowed to colonize even more Palestinian land in the West Bank, a process that will make completely impossible the establishment even of a small Palestinian state and ensure that Palestinian statelessness and disadvantage continues. Since, however, such an outcome looks an awfully lot like Apartheid, Netanyahu's success holds severe dangers for an Israel deeply dependent on trade with Europe and Africa.
A victory for the Israeli Right that is forced into unstable coalitions and dependent on small parties like Lieberman's would not want genuinely to pursue a viable peace with the Palestinians, and would not be able to even if it wanted to, as McClatchy points out. That outcome may make severe problems for President Obama.
Cont'd (click below or on "comments")
Lieberman, who is accused by many Israelis of being a fascist, is a former bouncer from Moldovia who only came to Israel in 1978. He wants to withdraw citizenship from, and even speaks of expellling Palestinians whose ancestors have been on this land for millennia.
Aljazeera English reports on the divisions in the Israeli electorate over the Likud, Kadima and Labor Parties, but finds that security is uppermost in voters' minds, with the poor economy a close second.
The new Israeli prime minister will make fateful decisions for the stateless Palestinians under Israeli military occupation. (Being stateless is sort of like being an African-American slave at the time the US constitution was crafted-- you are only 3/5s of a person, lacking rights that are essential to basic human dignity.)
Aljazeera English reports on how the Palestinians of the West Bank view the Israeli elections, mainly through a lens of despair and a conviction that nothing will change for the better.
In the meantime, Hamas, the elected government in Gaza, is near to a one-year truce with the ruling Kadima Party in Israel, according to Reuters. Obviously, the final provisions will have to be negotiated with the new government elected Tuesday. Aljazeera English hosts a discussion of the truce prospects:
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/10/2009 12:43:00 AM
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15 Comments:
Gideon Levy wrote an interesting take on this topic in Haaretz:
Let Netanyahu Win
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061736.html
Lest we forget that Lieberman, as Minister of Transport a number of years ago, would offer busses to round up Palestinians, drive them to the Dead Sea, and drown them.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=315541
Oh, and suggesting that Israel use the US's approach to Japan circa 1945 on Gaza.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1231774444907
This is a guy who Peres and even Sharon denounced!
Israel's far right party has plans for endless wars and Obama will end up shining their shoes. Just wait and see !!
Prof. Cole -
While Avigdor Lieberman hugely enjoys the image of rouge and rule-breaker, which appeals to all sorts of disenchanted voters, your characterization of him as far far right and an advocate of ethnic cleansing of Palestinians is flatly wrong. On the contrary, on some substantial counts he's comfortable to the left of Likud, which is why he sat comfortably in Olmert's government until recently.
Once you work your way past the strident populism and the Russian-style bluster which brings him his first half of his voters, themselves immigrants from the former Soviet Union, Lieberman is in favour of a two-state partition of what used to be Mandatory Palestine. What makes him unusual is his insistence that the partition shold strive for mutual ethnic homogeneity. This means the Israeli Arabs who live close to the Green Line of 1967 on its west side should be in Palestine, while the large Jewish settlements close to the same line on its east sides should be in Israel. Not a single Palestinian would be required to move in this scheme, though tens of thousands of settlers in small and far-flung settlements would, as their settlements would be disbanded.
Ironically, this proposal is not so far from what the architects of the Geneva Accords of 2004 called for: they also accepted that land swaps on both sides of the Green Line would work better than uprooting hundreds of thousands of settlers who are very close to the line.
About a month ago, as the IDF battled in Gaza, a small minority of Israeli Arabs - ethnic Palestinians who are full Israeli citizens - stridently sided with Hamas. This is their right as citizens, but one can understand that not all Israelis were pleased. Lieberman siezed upon the issue, and loudly called for a requirement that citizens must swear allegience as a condition of full citizenship. Such a proposal can never be enacted in any conceivable political constellation, and if it were the Sipreme Court would strike it down, as Leiberman - no-one's fool - knows perfectly well. One assumes most of his voters know it, too; certainly, all of them I've talked to admit it freely. Still, they feel a vote for him is a legitimate counter-demonstration to the pro-Hamas ones.
The Arab parties, who normally don't manage to collect more than about one third of the Arab votes (!) have gleefully been playing along at Lieberman's game. Where he talks nationalist populist demagoguery, so do they, and they make as much political hay as possible by casting themselves for their potential constituents as the last bulwark against Lieberman. They are aided in this by the Jewish Left - Meretz and the Left wing of Labor - who have futilely been seeking a way to distinguish themselves from Livni's Kadima, who is already deeply engaged in negotiations with the Palestinians.
Dr. Yaacov Lozowick
Jerusalem
Whatever chance there was for a two state solution vanished years ago with the proliferation of settlements. If Israel was ever serious about a two state solution they would have to dismantle the settlements. This would cause a civil war. Given the much noted Israeli aversion to casulaties the idea that they would risk a civil war that would tear the country apart is naive in the extreme. The only way out of this dilema is a one state solution. Israel as Zionist exclusionary state would cease to exist and a new state called Palestine would be born. Jews, Christians, Muslims, Druze and anyone else would all have equal rights. In short the new state would be modeled after the United States. At the present time this is as naive as believing in a two state solution. However there are three solutions to this mess. 1)Drive all the Palestinians out of the West Bank and Israel. 2)A two state solution. 3)A one state solution. Since military force is out of the question to achieve a Palestinian state the only way this can be accomplished is by the rest of the world treating Israel like they did South Africa. Deny diplomatic recognition, institute an economic embargo and stop all foreign aid until they change their direction. America would be the last to join in but at some point in time they may see the handwriting on the wall. I am sure most people would dismiss these proposals as nonsense but if we are to do justice to the Palestinians who deserve it this to my way of thinking is the only way to do it. I can dream can't I.
Netanyahu is just more honest than the other lunatic Israeli leaders. They all have been doing what he says he wants to do, but playing silly games with words or insisting that they must have a Palestenian "partner".
If Netanyahu wins, the USA will have no option but to pull the rug from under him and the others. There is too much at stake and the US is in deep, deep, economic and diplomatic trouble to play the tune of the Israeli loonies.
I was surprised to see the following as the lead item in the monthly newsletter from the World Jewish Congress:
"If Israel's imposition of a Gaza blockade last year to foment shortages of food, medicine, and fuel was intended to turn Palestinians against their terror-intent leadership, it didn't work, says Khaled Abu Toameh in the Jerusalem Post. What the Israelis reportedly did not foresee was that the digging of hundreds of tunnels from Gaza to Egypt insured a steady, secure supply line of smuggled goods through the "Tunnels of Life" built by sophisticated engineers which have rendered Hamas 'stronger than ever.'
Toameh says that the Palestinians expanded upon secret, subterranean passageways that were originally used to smuggle weapons but now have been extended to Egypt, and some even retrofitted with electricity, phone lines, and gas pipelines. He concluded, 'Underground smuggling has become one of the most profitable and sought-after professions in Gaza.' "
It seems to me that Liebermann is quite representative of an emerging consensus in Israel that the Arab population of the occupied territories and even Arab citizens of Israel should be transferred elsewhere and world opinion be damned. Neither the left or right show any signs of making any meaningful gestures to either the Arab citizens or the population of the territories.
I predict a Yugoslav type ethnic cleansing over the next 5 years aimed at driving away as many Arabs as possible from greater Israel.
The Palestinians seem to have mighty few friends in the Arab world, so they will take no action except a few perfunctory protests.
Bottom line, Israel will never willingly give up any of the currently occupied territories and Gaza will never be more than a large prison.
If polls say that over 50% of Israelis are in favor of a more accommodating position towards the Palestinians, why are the two right-wing parties doing so well and the left-wing party so poorly?
I am confused by this. What has happened in Israel lately to create this overwhelming desire for security? Back when busses and pizza parlors were blowing up on almost a daily basis, the Israeli public seemed so much more self-assured and confidant. Now, it's as though they are reacting to a 9/11 type attack, only there hasn't been one.
Could it be a reaction to Israel's defeat in Lebanon?
Nuclear Livni, or Nuclear Netanyahu? Either way the strategic center of Irael's occupation policy is in manipulating US politics and policy.
Last night Helen Thomas justified her reputation by asking (on live national television) if the President "knew of any countries in the ME who possessed nuclear weapons?" Softly put, but loss of 'Nuclear Opacity' is a deal changer, because Israel's weapons and past nuclear partnerships are a violation of US military aid restrictions and international non-proliferation treaties.
Obama pretending to keep 'the secret' is evidence that the tail is still wagging the dog, regardless of Nov. or Feb.election results.
John Santore picked up on the significance of Ms Thomas zinger at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/israeli-nuclear-weapons
So will Israel EVER stop being a bully? We all know what happens to bullies - they get beat up one way or another - if not directly, then indirectly. I am thoroughly disheartened at the road Israel is going down. More war brings more peace? Care to take a closer look at the smoke in the horizon?
off topic but for those interested in Iraq ....
The new strategic situation in Iraq
The provincial elections in Iraq are the opening salvo of a new phase in Iraq's history. The US military presence remains a large, vital, reality in Iraq. But US influence over the political direction of Iraq is traded in a futures market. Right now everyone is selling it short.
So Iraqis are now deciding what kind of state they really want to have after the amerikans are gone. I do not take anything for granted about how this will work out. I do not assume that the current Iraqi constitution will be in place even three years from now.
The whole way the US thinks about its interests in Iraq must change. Look forward, not backward. I am extremely interested in the story of US policy toward Iraq to date, and the Sunday papers had major stories about how to reinterpret the recent past. Fascinating for me. Yet, riveted on the drama in the rear-view mirror, we may not be noticing that we're driving into eight lanes of merging traffic.
We should be asking: What are the emerging issues in Iraq's future? What should we care about? How does that connect to the way we dispose of the 140,000 troops and vast investments we now wish to withdraw or reconfigure into something else?
Considering that the settler movement constitutes the biggest obstacle towards rapproachment with the Palestinians, and that they actively terrorize innocent civilians, I think that the US should classify Yisrael Beiteinu as a terrorist organization, refuse to deal with them, and target Avigdor Lieberman and his terrorist henchmen for assassination.
Just a thought experiment to see how it fits on the other side.
Looking for trouble?
First thing is basically certain - srong showing of Likud and the rise of Lieberman makes a 2-state solution pretty much of yet another Arabian Night tale.
Even if Kadima will get its 1-2 Knesset sits advantage over Likud, these sits are not likely to help Fatah a lot.
Next, when Hillary says that the Iranians have an opportunity to "unclench their fist", she is either naive or plain vicious or both. Those who wish to make fun of the Khomeinists, are looking for bitter trouble.
Her glamorous smalltalk reminds all to vividly the famous Israeli joke that Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The problem is, Iran is nothing like Palestine!
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