Iran Awaits Ballot Results;
Obama Effect Expected
On Friday, Iranians and the rest of the globe are eagerly awaiting an outcome in the presidential elections. Iranians started voting Friday morning. Rallies and electioneering were not allowed on Thursday, the day before the vote, leaving Tehran's streets eerily ghost-like after days of raucus rallies every evening.
Howard LaFranchi at CSM asks what the 'Obama Effect' will be on the Iranian revolution. Although it was not decisive, UNscientific polling in Lebanon suggests that Obama did have an effect in the defeat of the Hezbollah coalition, "March 8", in Lebanon, even if it was a slight one. [Sorry for the typo in the earlier draft, meant to say 'unscientific polling.']
Rasool Nafisi sees the democratic use of television as a new element in this year's presidential election in Iran.
John Kerry finally breaks the taboo in Washington to say what everyone already knows. Under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful, civilian energy purposes. The Bush administration's lame attempt to unilaterally revise the NPT to forbid Iran from this capability just made the US a laughingstock in the international community.
Aljazeera English interviews Mir Hosain Mousavi on talks with America (he thinks they are coming), and other hot issues.
Aljazeera English reports on the power and influence of Iran's pious foundations (bunyads).
The same network reports on Iranian-Americans voting in Iran's presidential elections:
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 6/12/2009 12:59:00 AM
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12 Comments:
Pepe Escobar over at The Real News has a good commentary on the elections. Your thoughts, Juan?
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3852&updaterx=2009-06-12+01%3A59%3A01
It will be interesting to see the GOP pooh-poohing the Obama effect. I confidently predict they will project messianic intentions on the president.
You say that the whole globe is watching. I doubt that, and even if it's true, it's based on a hype that we don't need to play into. Let's STOP hyping the Iran 'threat'. It's too bad that everytime the US picks a fight, the whole world has to pay attention.
Kudos to Kerry.
I wish the Iranians had a choice who was for more open-ness AND more for the poor.
And it's too bad that people call it a 'win' for Obama when he possibly manages to threaten another nation enough to manipulate them into changing their vote. And it's too bad that people just assume that it's ok for Saudi Arabia and the US to interfere in an election, but not ok for Syria and Iran to do so.
Sure would be nice to have alterna-pundits who really did offer an alternative.
The scientific polling referred to in the article was conducted in Iran, not in Lebanon. The "Obama effect" still has not yet been shown, beyond random anecdotes, in Lebanon. The article is also representative of the crappy journalism about the elections where Hariri, who sponsored protests against the cartoons which resulted in the sacking of the Danish embassy in Lebanon and who supports radical Salafis like Khaled Daher, is described as "pro-Western" and no mention is made of his supporters, the bigoted Salafi monarchy in Saudi Arabia.
" John Kerry finally breaks the taboo in Washington to say what everyone already knows. Under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful, civilian energy purposes. The Bush administration's lame attempt to unilaterally revise the NPT to forbid Iran from this capability just made the US a laughingstock in the international community."
I guess we can call this "Reality via fiat." It's a problem when an ex-dearleader repeats a knowing false mantra and the press, failing to vet, pick up on it. It's good to see John Kerry get into line. I mostly respect him, for his service and his devotion to truth when politically feasibly, i.e. he prefers truth but is a politician as well.
There seems to be a great deal of interest in the revised US position on Iran. Here are some links:
A German newspaper reports that the European Union wants to play a bigger hand in Iranian negotiations. Perhaps they like Obama's words but do not yet fully trust the US.
The website allafrica.com describes the change in US policy.
The Jakarta Post, uh, Indonesia, provides an opinion that changing attitudes requires effort from all parties.
A news outlet in the Republic of Texas offers several viewpoints.
Finally, the beloved Douglas Feith, speaking from a distant planet, offers insight into why it is important to avoid telling Israel what they must do, possibly because Israel is too busy telling Palestinians they must disrobe at checkpoints, they must wait for medical help at checkpoints until they die, they must suffer abuse at IDF soldiers at checkpoints, and, of course, when Obama says an independent state, they must understand he really meant a land with temporary borders that Israel will control.
Have any of the neo-con vapor heads come to realize that adopting a belligerent stance towards a sovereign nation can lead them to respond in kind? Under the wise stewardship of Bush the Lesser and his constant companion, Dick Cheney, the US made great progress in pushing the Middle East towards a nucklear arms race. Under the less than informed Obama (less than informed according to Mr. Feith from his vantage point on Planet Mustmust), the US is backing us away from volatile situations. Hopefully, Belligerant Israel will come to the same conclusion, kicking and screaming as they always do when led buy their collective pinkies to a position of relative safety, and stop messing around. Frankly, the World is tired of them.
"... threaten{ing} another nation enough to manipulate them into changing their vote" is an act of terrorism as defined by the USA and UN.
Forget about the Obama effect for now.
Ahmadinejad leading w/ 69% after counting about 20% of the vote.
Could Mr. Cole start updating w/ results? Many sources already report counts
History is so much easier to understand when it is simplified, when against ignorance, violence and fanaticism there is rationality, peace and open-mindedness.
I am not talking about Iran vs the West but the impossible fast forward expectations put on the shoulders of Obama.
Detecting an Obama effect in Iran or Lebanon is perpetuating a Western-centric perspective. It demonstrates an unbelievable arrogance. It implies that ŽourŽ president (and by inference our country, except for the neo-cons obviously) is sooo great, that certainly others will see finally the light.
So much intellectual sophistication and so many facts to arrive to such a simplistic conclusion is almost laughable...
Re O-effect, and Iranian reach for neighborhood nuclear status.
Team Obama has yet to answer the Helen Thomas question; as a matter of national intelligence, policy and statute, who in the ME now has nuclear weapons. Don't we produce NIE's on top-shelf issues?
Given a likely recovery and continued rise in oil prices, Iran can probably survive a US economic embargo, on top of the current military one.
Can Israel do as well, if the specified tech export sanctions mandated by US law for proliferating NPT non-signatories are applied to them?
We should recognize that Sunni states (and others) are as likely to react to Iranian nuclear program as Israel, by imitating both those countries and pursuing their own nuclear partnerships outside of the NPT sanctions.
So much for the Obama effect; the only effect is the Iran effect which whether we like to result or not is what matters. Obama was not a candidate in Iran or in Lebanon.
Good call on the Obama effect.
Maybe reporters should not just interview the college kids they are comfortable with.
Tracking the English language Iranian news sites left no place for pro-Mousavi optimism.
Also, Israeli comments were 100% clear - Israeli hawks did not see any particular differences between Ahmadinejad and the reformers.
So, why should Iranians believe that Mousavi could really improve the Iran-Western relationship? They know for sure the political weight of the Likud!
Now it becomes painfully clear that Mousavi success story was a really bad service for the Western public and Obama administration.
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