Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Mousavi Defies Khamenei;
Police Attack Protesters at Inqilab Square;
Downtown Tehran Burning

Mir Hosain Mousavi issued a powerful implicit denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, and insisting again that the results of the presidential election be annulled in favor of wholly new elections. ABC reports:

' Mr Mousavi hit back at a speech by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which the Ayatollah ruled out any election fraud. In a statement posted on his newspaper website, Mr Mousavi said his demand for the annulment of the election was an undeniable right and vowed to side with the Iranian people in defending their rights. "If this huge volume of cheating and changing the votes... which has hurt people's trust, is presented as the very evidence of the lack of cheating, then it will butcher the republican aspect of the system and the idea that Islam is incompatible with a republic will be proven," Mr Mousavi said. The strong criticism headlined "the fifth statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the Iranian people: don't allow lies and cheaters to steal the flag of defending the Islamic system from you" was briefly pulled from the website but later reposted.'


Some reports say that Mousavi has privately told followers that if he is arrested, they should carry out a nation-wide strike.

Mousavi has thrown down a gauntlet before the Supreme Leader and a battle has been joined. By the rules of the Khomeinist regime, only one of them can now survive. And perhaps neither will.

A. Richard Norton asks at IC Global Affairs whether the Iranian state really has the upper hand. He writes, "Dealing with civil disturbances is a labor intensive work. The natural response is to arrest the leaders and cut their communications, but those steps do not seem to be working to this point. People who are sufficiently inspired to join a demonstration at some risk to their lives constitute a movement not a bureaucratically organized unit. Particularly in fast-moving street confronations where wile, personality and courage are the currency unexpected leaders quickly emerge. As important, people learn quickly how to test, taunt and stretch the government forces. Provided the demonstrators desist from using deadly violence, their moral legitimacy will be enhanced. Plus, the government forces are hardly a monolith."

Earlier on Saturday, Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the other reform candidate for president, refused to attend a planned reconciliation meeting with the Council of Guardians, Iran's clerical senate that has been charged to recount ten percent of the ballots. The absence from this meeting, set up by Khamenei to smooth over the dispute, indicated that the reformers' confidence in Khamenei has completely collapsed.

The politics of the ayatollahs in Qom with regard to the conflict are explored by Aljazeera English:



ABC added,
'Witnesses reported widespread violence as thousands of opposition supporters tried to stage another protest against last week's election. Protesters chanted "death to dictatorship" as they walked to the rally, but many were stopped and beaten by security forces, including the dreaded Basij militia. As many as 60 people were taken to hospital. Police used teargas and water cannons to disperse the crowd. '


This observer from a distance in North Tehran, whose account appeared on an email list to which I am subscribed, didn't give the 3,000 or more protesters high odds against the security forces:

' Tehran June 20th, 2009. 6 pm.

. . . About five miles south of here [at Inqilab Square] pitched battles have been in progress between what appears to be a very large number of pro-reform supporters and Baseej security forces. Over their plainclothes, the latter are wearing standard issue sleeveless flak jackets, they are carrying riot squad helmets, a variety of sticks ranging from the traditional indigenous chomaq to more modern varieties such as extendable black electroshock stun batons and riot shields. They are, in other words, professionally equipped (and perhaps trained) riot police who perhaps misplaced their uniforms or have an unusual sense of style.

As the numbers of demonstrators began swelling soon after 4 pm, the security forces prevented people from traveling south to Enghelab Square.

At Amir Abad tear gas was used to disperse the crowd. It is hard to know the details of the mini-battles going on and too early to count the causalities but it is not, sad to say, so difficult to place odds on the outcome.

There was one instance of demonstrators successfully chasing away some security forces by sheer force of numbers and will. They raised a stirring cheer with hundreds of hands in the air. Moments later the security forces returned ten times more in force and pressed that crowd, that happy crowd, back into, of all places, Freedom Street.

Shots were fired into the air. Perhaps they were blanks, although a police officer had said earlier in the day that they had received orders to shoot below the waist with live ammo in cases of coming under attack. (Immediately a joke is making the rounds to the effect that all orders from on high are "below the waist"!)

But the advancing line of riot police had left their rear completely unguarded and tens of Allahu Akbar chanting demonstrators, had they been committed to violence (which they are not) could have attacked from the rear trapping those poor security men. But that is not the nature of this struggle; besides one just can't trap several dozen security people without knowing what your going to do next. And since this movement is not a military or violent one, not is it very organized, it could never develop tactics like that.

By now, 7 pm, the crowds are mostly dispersed. I have not heard reports of any fatalities yet thank goodness. I have not heard about other parts of the city. All mobile phones are switched off in the area so no contact can be made. Interestingly the authorities have become much more efficient over the last week. At they beginning, they switched of ALL the mobile phone service, including text service, in the entire city so as to disrupt communications among the movement. But today, they only switched it off in the troubled neighborhoods. . . '


Another observer said that the Basij hard line militia had positioned itself in Sanati Sharif University in Tehran and that military helicopters were ferrying arms and equipment to them. Security forces lined the streets and sent back up north any protesters trying to come into the city center from north Tehran.

But this person maintained that the protesters were gathering with the intention of marching into the city after dusk.

As it was, fires were burning on Tawhid Square in downtown, and one observer said that the capital was 'on fire.' Smoke could be seen billowing above Tehran.

The LAT reports
' By nighttime, witnesses said, the unrest stretched from the side streets along Enghelab Street all the way from Azadi (Freedom) Street to Vali Asr Street, a miles-long corridor that is among the city's most important east-west thoroughfares. There were reports that disturbances had also broken out in other parts of the city, especially key squares in the north Tehran, but they could not be immediately confirmed.'


The LAT adds, "As the clock struck 10 p.m. today, parts of the city roared with chants of "God is great" and "Death to the dictator," as a nightly ritual of protest continued."

Graphic video of protesting women shot down can be found here. Warning: Very disturbing.

Brave Roger Cohen is in Tehran for the NYT, and he speaks of motorcycles set on fire sending columns of flames into the air, of teargas swirling about, of police wavering about whether they can attack fellow Iranians, and of the barricades being staffed by courageous women of all sorts.

Around 10 pm GMT some Iranian sites were reporting that tanks had entered Azadi Square.

Likewise there were eyewitness reports on my lists of an outbreak of violence between protesters and security men in various districts of the southwestern city of Shiraz. Spooked police there have sometimes randomly attacked persons who only look as though they might be protesters.

Huffington has an important statement of Iranian Americans on the events in Iran.

End/ (Not Continued)

15 Comments:

At 1:05 AM, Blogger Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves said...

"A. Richard Norton asks at IC Global Affairs whether the Iranian state really has the upper hand. He writes, "Dealing with civil disturbances is a labor intensive work. The natural response is to arrest the leaders and cut their communications, but those steps do not seem to be working to this point. People who are sufficiently inspired to join a demonstration at some risk to their lives constitute a movement not a bureaucratically organized unit. Particularly in fast-moving street confronations where wile, personality and courage are the currency unexpected leaders quickly emerge. As important, people learn quickly how to test, taunt and stretch the government forces. Provided the demonstrators desist from using deadly violence, their moral legitimacy will be enhanced. Plus, the government forces are hardly a monolith.""

Dang! That a good analysis of protest crowd sociology!

That's also eerily similar to a description of what was happening in the waning years of the Vietnam war post-Tet offensive.

They arrested the Chicago 7 (David Dellinger, a Ghandian pacifist, Bobby Seale, Black Panther, Abbie Hoffman, countercultural, deadly serious 'clown', etc) for conspiracy to incite to riot (Stokley Carmichael anti-riot act, a rider on the MLK civil rights act (natch!)) at the Chicago National Democratic convention in '68 , of whom one of them quipped:

"Conspiracy? Hell! We can't even decide where to go for lunch."

But the people in the streets 'knew' what to do... Impromptu affinity groups formed, split, reformed on other streets, met at local bars, coffee shops and planned the next action (The "Stonewall 'gay bar' riot" in NY wasn't about 'gay' BTW, that's where the middle class gay activists did their planning and the police decided to harass the bar for it, with totally unintended days-long street fighting and riots as a consequence) and it was all the authorities could do just to figure out who the leaders were anymore, making it untenable to employ the "grab the leaders" tactic, so they ended up just wading into the crowds attacking anyone they could 'get their batons on' in frustration.

Over time, the crowds got larger, not smaller, as more people previously un-affiliated, or just observing what was happening on TV and the media... Heard from their friends, came out... The previously dis-involved middle class too.

 
At 3:28 AM, Anonymous Behnam said...

Quote: "The absence from this meeting, set up by Khamenei to smooth over the dispute, indicated that the reformers' confidence in Khamenei has completely collapsed."

Another possibility is that Mousavi and Karroubi (for whom I voted) actually do not care for the issue to be resolved. Imagine if a recount of all the disputed ballot boxes plus a random selection of 10% of all ballot boxes were performed. If that confirmed Ahmadinejad's victory, that would discredit Mousavi and Karroubi.

It is arguably to Mousavi's & Karroubi's advantage if a cloud of suspicion continues to hang over the election results. That way they will not have to admit to having lost the election, and they'll have a grievance around which to mobilize a movement.

 
At 4:32 AM, Blogger Purple said...

The protests as they occurred today really give the Iranian state an upper hand. The state loves violence when it comes to small numbers of protesters who want to 'take them on'.

 
At 4:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

English translation of Grand Ayatollah Shirazi remarks on election:

Translation of Iranian Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi

 
At 5:14 AM, Blogger blowback said...

The Iranian authorities can field only a limited number of riot police so one tactic for the protestors to use would have been to start small peaceful protests all over Iran which lasted until the riot police arrived and then the protestors dispersed. By now after ten days of this, the riot police would be exhausted and the Iranian authorities would look like idiots. However, for this to work, the reformers would need to be a mass movement with a large number of supporters willing to commit themselves to peaceful protest from all over Iran, failing that they could have organized such events all over Tehran. That the reformers cannot do so speaks volumes about the real strength of their support across Iran.

As for not turning up to the meeting of the Guardian Council. I think, FWIW, that that is a big mistake. The Iranian authorities can now claim that they tried to resolve the issue peacefully but the reformers think they are above the law. While Mousavi could have stood to one side so as not to give his validation to the Guardian Council process, he should have sent his best islamic lawyers along to force as fair a hearing and investigation as possible and if it wasn't obviously fair then he would have scored a major propaganda victory. As it is, we will never know.

 
At 5:48 AM, Anonymous Non-Compassionate Liberal said...

Can Iranian citizens own firearms? I'm not advocating that they should be out in the streets with arms, but if they are allowed, then they're showing remarkable restraint by not using them (at least, according to the clips that I've seen). What's the deal?

 
At 5:58 AM, Anonymous Chris Dornan said...

As well as Cohen's, Fisk's dispatches are also well worth reading.

 
At 6:08 AM, Blogger bob hall said...

If Khamenei prevails it seems it will be impossible to have any sort of diplomatic engagement with the regime. The odds of an Israeli attack appear to have risen sharply, and we have large numbers of troops in Iraq on big bases who would be inviting targets for the Iranians. I fear the odds of this spiralling toward all-out war have gone up.

 
At 6:49 AM, Blogger Northern PoV said...

Juan,
I have started to read about how the example of "Iraqi Democracy" next door has inspired this movement/situation in Iran. It should be one of those fantasies that we just ignore but I fear the neo-cons will be promoting this myth big time and would love to read your thoughts about it.

 
At 8:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Every major Western news channel is leading with the story of Iranians protesters being "beaten and killed." These Western news channels were SILENT when Israel was bombing and killing scores of innocent Palestinians.

The massive news coverage of Iran is part of the plan to paint Iran as dangerous and in need of Western intervention, aka invasion and occupation.

 
At 12:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This will result in the Republicans running David Petraeus for President in 2012, as the US will likely still be knee-deep in military activity in the Middle East and military creds will be key. The US will somehow find the resources to remain in war mode, I fear.

 
At 1:18 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

ref : “Every major Western news channel is leading with the story of Iranians protesters being "beaten and killed." The western media's disappointment upon being denied their "Tiananmen Square Moment" or whatever narrative "show", BREAKING NEWS = rhetorical question begging, "Will there be violence?" and, For goodness sake, send us your tweets! because... we got no show to tellya, telly folks. Well, they got the "we got a Neda" = "sacrifice of the innocent maiden = Voice Of The Movement" thing, and it plays well, in a weird, What If You Knew Her And Found Her Dead On The Ground kinda acid-flashback way. Sweet Jesus!... Where does our universal LUST for the romantic ‘Martyr’ come from? (ref : “Mourning the martyr is as central to Iranian Shi'ite religious culture as it was to strains of medieval Catholicism in Europe...”) certainly the Professor was not referring to that martyr = some religious zombie zealot or righteous Gaza Ghetto avenger who straps explosives to her body and blows up a bus full of Israeli = presumed Jews. Of course not. This sacrifice is different, death de facto at the end of the day notwithstanding. It's plain to see it's US against THEM all over again and I want to kill somebody because I'm pissed ~ you know, Dude called me "dust". Everybody Over Here is dying to know: So where's 'The Revolution Show' death defying Over There? We got more BANG BANG going-on over on the two (or is it three, now? I can never remember) U.S. War Fronts already blacked-out by OUR state media massage. And folks, is it not absolutely eerie how willing the old neo-cons are to see all these non white-skinned people in bloody self-destruction, Civil War: HAMAS -vs- FATAH; Sunni -vs- Shia; AfPaks -vs- Pashtun... and now the neo-libs (Et tu, Bruté?) i daresay longing for it, too. The carmine blush of Madame Mousavi's rose being all the same at the end of this history writ: not justice; just that familiar stink ~ for god's sake ~ of sticky red on cold paving stones.

 
At 4:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Western media is notorious for picking and choosing "good" and "bad" foreigners, and which foreigners are "worthy" of coverage.

Case in point: More Iraqi Turcoman were murdered on Saturday in one bombing than have been killed in Iran for the past week. But Iraq is no longer an "important" story.

Our media is horrible.

 
At 5:23 PM, Blogger LSS said...

No other country has to take the blame for interfering in the Iran Revolution. The Iranian people are speaking for themselves, and Khamenei and A'jad are surely aware of this. There is no way they can now successfully rule over these people. If I were them, I would be looking for another country to retreat to, for they are surely not safe in their own country anymore. It is just a matter of time before the military throws down their arms from having too much of their own peoples blood on their hands.
This revolution is a step in the right direction for Muslims and world peace. All muslims across the world need be taking note that 'Americans' support the Iranian people in their quest for Freedom.
Khamenei is calling the protestors terrorists, but don't terrorists have weapons???? They are expelling reporters stating the reporters are giving false information, but it is the Iranian people who are blogging and sending the videos. Shows you how silly this regime is.

 
At 4:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the BBC corrected its story to report that only 105 (out of something like 290) guests showed up at the Ahmadenijad party -- instead of 105 NOT showing up.

 

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