Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Iran: Mousavi Remains Defiant;
Journalists Held

Reuters reports that Iranian opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi is continuing to assert that the newly formed second-term government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is illegitimate. He called for a lifting of censorship and the release of the some one thousand Iranians arrested by security forces for participating in demonstrations against the allegedly stolen election. He was joined joined in this continued defiance of Supreme Leader Khamenei by his rival, Mehdi Karroubi and others in the reform camp. My guess is that they aren't far from a jail cell.

The regime is already conducting Stalinist show-trials, as in the case of Maziar Bahari, who recently appeared with me on Fareed Zakaria's GPS Sunday interview show. Please politely protest Mr. Bahari's detention and the coerced 'confession' to Mohammad Khazaee, Ambassador and Permanent Representative, email address: iran@un.int . While you are at it, demand the release of Greek journalist Iason Athanasiadis and the others listed by Amnesty International. If you can, it is best to write by land mail to: Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Howzeh Riyasat-e Qoveh Qazaiyeh, (Office of the Head of the Judiciary) Pasteur St., Vali Asr Ave.,south of Serah-e Jomhouri,
Tehran 1316814737, Islamic Republic of Iran (Salutation: Your Excellency).

Another ayatollah, Jalaoddin Taheri, has issued a fatwa calling Ahmadinejad's election illegitimate and fraudulent. In 2002, Taheri, long a critic of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resigned after thirty years as Friday prayer leader of the major city of Isfahan (sort of like being archbishop of Boston). More significant senior ayatollahs, such as Yousuf Sanei, have also shown discomfort with the way the elections were conducted.

Ali Reza Eshraghi explains why most clerical authorities in Iran are afraid of rocking the boat to much, and have more or less acquiesced in Khamenei's decision.

One fall-out of the widespread questioning of the probity of the election process is that Ahmadinejad has had to cancel a trip to Libya to appear at the conference of the African Union, since his being on the roster there had become controversial. Khamenei may win his battle to move the Iranian state further to the repressive Right for the moment, but it may well be a pyrrhic victory since it is likely to isolate Iran further from the international community and to set the stage for further unrest in the future.

Hard as it is to watch all this repression unfold, I agree with Eric Margolis that there is little the US can or should do at this point. Countries have their own developmental history, class structures, and political cultures, and foreign military or covert interventions on behalf of state-building and democratization have very seldom succeeded in modern history.(See Elizabeth Thompson's new study on democratization in the Middle East for USIP-- the pdf is here.) Not to mention that Bush-Cheney and the Neocons tied up the US military and intelligence apparatuses in another illegal war of aggression, which rather weakened US international legitimacy for such purposes. As with post-Tiananmen Square China, the US will just have to deal with the Iran that exists.

Here is the graphic novel of the past three weeks' events in Iran, in the style of Marjane Satrapi's Persepolis (she is not involved in this production).

Aljazeera English reports from the streets of Tehran on the aftermath of the massive protests against the announced outcome of the June 12 presidential elections.



Iran experts Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Abbas Milani, and Karim Sadjadpour discuss the aftermath of the election and its implications for U.S. foreign policy in the region at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. David Ignatius moderated the discussion.



End/ (Not Continued)

2 Comments:

At 10:48 AM, Blogger Matoko said...

I have noticed in the scraps we get there is a trend developing to sever the ties between Khomeini and Khamenei.
Khomeini is greatly revered by the Iranian people.

Karroubi: What kind of velvet revolution is this; that two of its leaders (Mousavi and Karroubi) were the most experienced friends of the Ayatollah [Khomeini] and were recognized by the office of the Leader and the Guardian Council as legitimate candidates and had 15 millions supporters.

Esfahani:Other criticisms from senior clerics over the regime's handling of the elections and subsequent protests included a report from a Persian news agency, which on Tuesday quoted a senior cleric from the city of Esfahan, Ayatollah Seyyed Jalaleddin Taheri-Esfahani, defending Mousavi against the regime's criticisms.The ayatollah was quoted as saying: "Is it a case of justice to see that an honorable and modest Seyyed [a descendant of the household of the prophet Muhammad], who until the last moments of Khomeini's life was a dear and close companion of that grand leader, is now considered to be a rioter and an agent of arrogance who must be punished?"

Gafouri: Underlining the climate of fear among direct and even indirect supporters of Mousavi's campaign for the election to be annulled, the sources also reported that a prominent cleric gave a speech to opposition protesters in Teheran earlier this week in which he publicly acknowledged that the very act of speaking at the gathering would likely cost him his life."Ayatollah Hadi Gafouri said that the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini] never wanted [current supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei to succeed him. He even went to say that the Islamic republic died the day the Imam did," one source said.
Gafouri is especially interesting since it is historically indisputable that Khomeini set the succession by diktat and the laws had to be changed for Khamenei to become Supreme Ayatollah because he had not the scholarship required. I think....this is preparing the ground for the Assembly of Experts to remove Khamenei.

 
At 2:26 PM, Blogger Arnold Evans said...

Dr. Cole:

Do you really agree with Margolis?

Honest elections

No doubt Sen. Graham will show those malevolent Iranian vote riggers how good, all-American honest elections are run in Iraq and Afghanistan: Opposition groups who oppose U.S. occupation are barred from running in the "democratic elections." Or Lebanon, where Washington just spent millions buying votes for the pro-American coalition.

There is very little Washington can or should do in Iran. Iran's election, in spite of significant but not decisive voting irregularities, appears to have been a clear victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. American meddling will only help the Islamic government.

Besides, the U.S. is hardly without sin. Remember Florida's "hanging chads," Ohio's rigged voting machines and Chicago, where mayor Richard Daley helped win the presidency for the sainted Jack Kennedy by getting the dead to vote.

Iran at least lets its people vote. America's Arab allies hold only sham elections.


Or do you still believe Ahmadinejad has the support of 20% of Iran's population, and that electoral fraud in fact was decisive in turning a 20% defeat into a 60% victory?

 

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