Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, July 10, 2009

Nationwide Protests Met with Main Force;
Regime Arrests Head of Refineries for Fear of Oil Workers Strike;
Ebadi Aide Arrested

AP reports the course of Thursday's protests in Tehran. Some 2,000 protesters initially gathered in several spots in the capital, later growing some 3,000 strong. Outside Tehran University, an approaching crowd grew 1,000 strong. Police prevented them from entering the campus, AP says, but then allowed them to gather and chant 'Death to the dictator!' In other areas of the city, the Basij paramilitary dispersed crowds them with tear gas and by firing shots in the air. On Vali Asr Street, security forces chased down demonstrators and beat them. Residents hid fleeing protesters, and auto drivers honked horns in support of them.

What AP does not say on is that numerous small demonstrations are reported to have taken place all over the country, including in the southwestern city of Shiraz and elsewhere.

Regime repression continued, with the arrest of a key member of the team around human rights activist and Nobelist Shirin Ebadi.

Human Rights Watch documents the use of beatings and other forms of coercion by the Iranian regime to extract so-called 'confessions' from those arrested by security forces, often at peaceful demonstrations.

Asef Bayat weighs in, arguing that by resorting to brute force the Iranian regime is undermining itself. Bayat is always well worth reading.

James Vega argues that Thursday's demonstrations are significant because they disrupt the regimes favored script of 'a return to normalcy.'

KXAN in Austin gives the context of today's protests as a commemoration of the regime's crushing of student rallies in 1999.



CNN provides 'amateur video' of the July 9 demonstrations:



Unverified video said to be of the July 9 demonstrations in Tehran:



This site has a whole collection of protest videos said to be from Thursday.

Aljazeera English interviews Iason Athanasiadis, a Greek-British reporter, who was held for three weeks in Tehran's Evin prison.



The USG Open Source Center translates or paraphrases some items relating to Iran's economy:

' Head of Tehran Refinery Arrested Over Fear of National Strike

-- Alef and Peiknet noted on 8 July that there is no information on the whereabouts of . . .[Shahaboddin] Metaji, head of Tehran Refinery. He was arrested several days ago and taken to an unknown location. Metaji 's colleagues, according to the report, said he was arrested because his family was chanting "Allah-O-Akbar" (God is Great) on the roof of their homes as a sign of protest to last month's presidential election results. [This chanting indicates support for opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi]. His employees reportedly said: "The officials are trying to create fear among us, but that will not help. Our chanting has not stopped and will not stop. In one of his visits, (Iranian President Mahmud) Ahmadinezhad told one of the oil officials to use big tankers instead of barrels when exporting petroleum. The employees couldn't believe how uninformed he is. The employees of the oil industry are angry because hundreds of small and big energy projects are now suspended, and now the employees are counting the seconds to exit this crisis. The structure of the oil industry is very much against Ahmadinezhad " (Internet Alef - informative-analytical website that is close to principlist economic experts. URL: http://www.alef.ir/ http://www.alef.ir ) (Internet Peiknet in Persian - an opposition website associated with Iran's Tudeh (Communist) party. URL: http://http://www.peiknet.com/ www.peiknet.com ). . .

China, Iran's Number One Asian Trade Partner - The Mehr News Agency indicated on 7 July that Sa`id Shabestari, Iran's charge d'affaires to China, said China was Iran's largest Asian trade partner in 2008. Addressing a conference in Beijing on investment opportunities for refinery projects in Iran, Shabestari said bilateral trade between Iran and China in 2008 reached $27.6 billion, showing a growth rate of 34 percent over 2007. He also said: "In 2008, Iran exported nearly $3.8 billion worth of non-oil products to China, and its imports amounted to $8 billion in the period." China and Iran enjoy an extensive economic relationship despite global economic sanctions, noted the report. Iran and China cooperate in many sectors, including energy, construction, trade, and tourism. China currently helps Iran build dams, shipyards, ports, airports, mine development, and oil and gas infrastructure. With more than 100 Chinese state companies operating in Iran, Beijing wants to increase its presence in Iranian markets, according to the Mehr report (Mehr News Agency (Internet Version-WWW) in Persian - conservative news agency sympathetic to the traditional clerics. URL: http://www.mehrnews.com/ www.mehrnews.com ).

. . . Economic Situation To Worsen as Oil Prices Decrease

-- AyandeNews noted on 7 July that it is estimated that the oil revenue for the current year is predicted to be less than last year at between $45 billion and $50 billion, which, the report said, will not meet the needs of the people and the country. For example, the report suggested, imports should be reduced by 20 percent. "On one hand, the country will face foreign currency shortage, and, on the other, the country is grappling with high inflation and unemployment and that will create a bigger crisis," the report concluded.

Tehran More Expensive Than Madrid, Frankfurt, Chicago

-- Khabar-Online reported on 8 July that, according to Mercer's 2009 Cost of Living Survey, [Tehran] is ranked 33rd among the most expensive cities in the world in which to live, knocking off Chicago, Madrid, and Frankfurt. The survey covers 143 cities across six continents and measures the comparative cost of more than 200 items in each location, including housing, transportation, food, clothing, household goods, and entertainment (Internet Khabar Online in Farsi - a daily online newspaper posting news, articles, and interviews supporting pro-reformers. URL:

http://www.khabaronline.ir/ http://www.khabaronline.ir/ ).'



End/ (Not Continued)

8 Comments:

At 6:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Professor Cole: your postings on Iran fail to consider the political context that James Petras, rightly so, offers in http://informationclearinghouse.info/article23010.htm

 
At 6:42 AM, Blogger bahman atefi said...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/09/AR2009070901772.html

 
At 3:48 PM, Anonymous William deB. Mills said...

Events are swirling way too fast to be absorbed (even if we had the relevant information, e.g., about the degree of IRGC unity, the reasoning behind rising clerical dissent, the position of the real Rafsanjani). Everyone is trying to post the most up-to-the-minute evaluations, which is fascinating and valuable, but where are the on-going projects to take 1) a more thoughtful view AND 2) still publish conclusions before the whole thing becomes history?

Can academia figure out a way in this Internet age to do policy-relevant (i.e., timely) but also thoughtful analysis?

Several approaches seem highly useful. One, which I will not discuss here, is a carefully structured scenario analysis (no, that is not a contradiction).

Another approach is historical analogy, about which a brief comment follows.

The bottom line is that policy-makers need careful but rapid (weeks, not years) analysis to channel their otherwise erratic enthusiasm for action.

Can we step up and meet this urgent need before some spark lights a war?

Still interested? The case for viewing Iran in historical context as an Islamic society under a military kleptocracy follows:

Zionist politicians intent on expanding Israeli territorial control and defeating any country (and Iran is the last) willing to defy Israeli regional military domination are doing their best to make the case the Iran is sui generis. On this one point, Khomenei would certainly have agreed. But Khomenei has been dead for a long time, and Iran looks more and more like other countries every day.

It is almost impossible to view the Basij without thinking of the Red Guards of the Cultural Revolution: naïve and no doubt frequently sincere youths full of indignation, minds crammed with ideology and played for fools by corrupt leaders. So far, they remain under control, but Mao ended up having to call out the army to control his teenage bully boys, and that pretty much trashed his revolution.

It is also almost impossible to view the IRGC without seeing that model of military kleptocracy, the Pakistani Army (see Alyesha Siddiqa’s Military Inc. on the latter). Pakistan and Iran are similar in many ways, not the least because both have politicized and educated publics that have demonstrated the will and capacity to take charge of their own fate and defend their rights. The impressive overthrow of Musharraf and the Lawyer’s Movement in Pakistan as well as the courage of protestors both against the Shah in 1978-9 and today in Iran hold lessons in democratic action that put complacent Americans, whose democracy is also under domestic attack, to shame. In Pakistan, the masses concerned about civil liberties tamed the military only to see corrupt and incompetent politicians slip back into power. Are senior clerics in Qom right now considering how Iran might do better?

There is no embarrassment in admitting that we foreigners don’t have a clue about what is happening in Iran. Events strongly suggest that Khomenei, Ahmadinejad, the IRGC, the Qom clerical establishment, and the Iranian populace don’t either. After all, while you were reading this article, the situation changed. But there are historical precedents worth contemplating while we all (hopefully) take a deep breath and calm down.

 
At 5:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

.
Oh, dear. The Afghanistan War could be slipping away. All those lovely government contracts for Hellfire missiles and convoy protection could evaporate if somebody doesn't get out front on this potentially destabilizing development.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/07/10/pakistan.taliban.omar/index.html

If we participate in negotiations, and listen to grievances, nobody will respect our military might anymore. Where is Curtis LeMay when we really need him ?

a student of war profits
.

 
At 7:48 PM, Anonymous Ken Hoop said...

I was about to post Petras as well. The difference is Prof. Petras is an authentic opponent of Empire while Prof. Cole as Obama said of Putin, has one foot in the Empire and in Juan's case, a toe outside it.

 
At 9:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As an Iranian I would like to tell Petras to go to hell and sacrifice his own country for defeating the "Empire". I want my sisters and their daughters and mother to not live in fear of being stoned or arrested while people like Petras are afforded the luxry of fighting the evil "empire".

Take you equally tyrannical proleteriat, anti-imperialist fight out of homeland. I wish you all the luck as long you stay away from from my family in Iran.

 
At 10:35 PM, Anonymous Marion said...

Mousavi shifts to allegations of ‘Purchasing Votes’ - and Still Falls Short


It is unclear that the reformists (Mousavi and karrubi) can even win their fierce public opinion battle with the election officials, who have been anything but media shy about defending the elections process and its outcome as legitimate, says Kaveh L. Afrasiabi.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=33121

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous HeinieKaboobler said...

Thanks for this information. I hope you continue to write about Iran!

 

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