Why Republicans are Worried

The corporate media are in the tank for a Republican comeback in 2010, and the GOP may in fact pick up some seats in the Senate and the House, though if employment ticks up by the fall, not as many as some are implying. The corporate media made a big deal about two Democrats who are stepping down but not about 6 Republicans who are. But the long-term trends look good for the Democratic Party.


h/t Mindvirus at Reddit.com

Political views are formed in young adulthood and for most people remain stable in later life. Republican wedge issues such as gay-bashing, cutting government services and help to people, and the promise of more wars are increasingly unattractive to the younger generation and that is unlikely to change soon. We could be on the verge of another FDR moment, of a long period of Democratic dominance.

John Judis and Ruy Taxeira were prescient.

End/ (Not Continued)

19 Responses

  1. That will be true if they have not become jaded by the promises made and not kept by Obama and the Democratic party. Many young people may simply stay home for the next election. The average age of the voter in 2010 will be higher – I guarantee it!

  2. imho, there are two ways to look at a graphic like that. perhaps three.

    1. graphs and charts are fun, and anyone can make any of them 'mean' whatever they'd like, if they are clever.

    2. it's only a matter of time, and enough boomers and greatest gen types dying off, and progressive change becomes politically inevitable in this country. esp given how few of those 18-29yos are expecting to have what even their parents had, in terms of things like health care, job security, and "entitlements."

    3. obama is doing his best to dampen and disillusion the very youth vote who helped put him in office, by his inaction and inability to follow thru on campaign promises. the Foily person in me says that's a feature, not a bug.

    my mind waffles between these ideas and more, looking at that graph.

  3. "This is what the electoral map would look like if the election were decided by 18-29 year olds"
    Unfortunately, that is the age range that is least likely to vote, especially in midterm elections. They are also unlikely to be concerned about issues of medical insurance, since they rarely need medical care.
    If I may rant a bit, I understand that the American people are impatient, and are angry because Obama has been in office for a year and has not fully resolved the worst economic crisis in 75 years. But I don't understand why they turn to the Republicans, whose policies caused the crisis in the first place and have nothing to offer other than a return to those very policies.

  4. The only problem I have with this assessment lies with the character of the electorate, who are not young. Granted, the Obama campaign drew out the first significant youth vote since the 1968 McCarthy campaign. Nevertheless, the American electorate tends to be gerontological.

  5. ref : “John Judis and Ruy Taxeira were prescient arguing that, if current demographic and political trends continue, a new realignment of political power was inevitable, this time sweeping Democrats to power. In support of their thesis they argued that the electorate was becoming increasingly diverse [ie., urbane] coining the word "ideopolis" for the geographic areas where the ‘postindustrial’ economy thrived ~ yadda yadda yadda. Urbanity refers to the characteristics, personality traits, and viewpoints associated with cities and urban areas. People who can be described as having urbanity are also referred to as citified. The word is related to the Latin urbanitas with connotations of refinement and elegance; the opposite of rusticus, associated with the countryside. Oxford English Dictionary notes that the relationship of urbane to urban is similar to the relationship humane bears to human.

    However upon achieving their majority power in the U.S. Legislative and Executive Branches, Democratic politicians revealed to a shocked, urbane American electorate that they were deeply corrupted by an even more powerful political force, globalised corporations, whose interests were ultimately detrimental to "Americanism," or for that matter, any other artifact of the "notion of Nation" era.

    Future history writ: «Under the leadership of Barack Obama, Democrats in Congress made ‘health care’ neither a right, nor a privilege — but an obligation for individual citizens; and they enfranchised a government-mandated profit center for private corporations. For the first time in American history, Democrats used the coercive power of the federal government to force every American — simply by virtue of being an American — to purchase the products of a private company. In effect, this represented an historic defeat for the type of American idealism represented by the New Deal and the Great Society, and marked the ascendancy of a new type of corporatism. As governments, and indeed ~ military forces ~ in the U.S. and around the world became increasingly "hollowed out" by this brick -and- mortar borderless, global process of privatization, the old models of "polarized, political parties," with their increasingly meaningless labels of "liberal" and "conservative values" was swept aside as archaic ~ dysfunctional remnants of a bygone era of personal privacy, with its illusions of 1 man : 1 vote self-determinism (e.g., being a ‘consumer’ identity, rather than a ‘customer’ character) for the realpolitik of corpus organicism that exists today.»

  6. To those of you that continue to harp the falsehood of Obama's broken promises I suggest you stop trying to mislead others.
    The FACTS are that the current administration has kept more campaign promises in a YEAR than the previous administration did in eight.

    The Obameter Scorecard
    * Promise Kept 90
    * Compromise 29
    * Promise Broken 11
    * Stalled 66
    * In the Works 244
    * Not yet rated 68

    From link to politifact.com

    Please use your brain.

  7. Obama's support was largely due to the perception he was anti war, maybe a bit due to health care, and some anti corporatism. He was also 'cool'. I doubt a democrat will be given a free pass like that in the future. He will also be firmly middle aged and not cool anymore next election.

  8. I did a five-month, 23-state trip across the country last year talking with people in small towns, most of them older than the age group tracked by the map. When asked how they felt about Obama's statement that (words to the effect), "Fundamentally, we are one," nobody agreed except for those who said, "Locally, yes. Nationally no." Further, they all agreed that the national government knew nothing about their lives, and therefore any decisions/plans/programs they came up with were irrelevant.

    If this be so, then I fail to see how either Democrats or Republicans can not only win and election, and put new decisions/plans/programs in place, but actually make them happen as it make a joke of E Pluribus Unum (see Great Seal).

  9. Anonymous: But are Americans turning to the GOP? Evidence?

  10. I'm 22. Let me respond, since you make some huge generalizations about 18-29 year olds

    "Republican wedge issues such as gay-bashing"

    Not a Republican issue. Obama and Biden too said that they oppose gay marriage. California voted for Prop 8 in the same election where they overwhelmingly voted for Obama.

    "cutting government services and help to people"

    Great! I don't want my health care run by the same people that run Amtrak and Fannie Mae.

    "and the promise of more wars"

    What part of McCain's campaign platform did he say "Ladies and gentlemen, I promise you more wars!" Please don't give me the "100 years" quote, because you know what he meant.

  11. "Republican wedge issues such as gay-bashing"

    - like opposing gay marriage or refusing to end don't ask don't tell…

    "cutting government services and help to people"

    Under pressure to pay for his ambitious reshaping of the nation's healthcare system, President Obama on Saturday outlined $313 billion in Medicare and Medicaid spending cuts over the next decade to help cover the cost of expanding coverage to tens of millions of America's uninsured.

    "and the promise of more wars "

    Pakistan, Yemen, who knows, maybe Iran…

  12. can't undo what the repubilcan party and money-driven politicians have done since the late 70's in one year.

    we need more progressive democrats elected in 2010 and beyond to get America on track to help the regular folk — and to stop the violence abroad.

    – peg1

  13. Unless Obama and his Administration actually start delivering on some of the issues that brought out the youth vote ie. stop the wars, close Guantanamo, fight not cajole the insurance industry, then they will most likely sit the next one out and may not engage again until the "security" the Repug party always promises sounds attractive to them- in about 5 years or enough to have another 8 to 12 years of Republican control of the Government. The Democratic party has proved itself yet again a timid, weak governing body, afraid of bold action.(Thanks Rahm!) THIS is why Republicans win, at least you know what they will do without any waffling or psychic conflict. Sometimes people vote for efficiency even if it is against their own interests.But given that the level of Obama HATE is much larger than the Media wants to cover,beware of a southern Repug run in 2012 that galvanizes the white vote to overcome any ideas of the youth supporting a man who has continually told them to "be patient" after they worked their hearts out for him.

  14. Obama is a figurehead for a Democratic Congress that is merely posturning when they present themselves as Democrats. There is little difference qualitiatvely between Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Both take funds for corrupt, monied interests and do their bidding. Otherwise they would never have the necessary funds to become elected in the first place.

    The Republicans are in your face about where their bread is buttered. They will tell you it is the large corporate interests. Democrats try to conceal it or sayt that it is OK to take money from health insurance companies while shepherding legislation on health insurance reform through the United States Senate. Senators like Max Baucus are no better or different than any Republican. They just lie about it to their liberal constituents in Missoula, Montana.

    The Democrats are as corrupt as the Republicans, even if they appear to have better manners.

    Where Obama has failed is his anticipation, overassessment, and in the final analysis, fear of Republican opposition. So what if the Republicans are opposed to your agenda? He was compromising based on their vocal opposition to his plans even before any real showdown. He flinched even before he looked them in the eye.

    He has shown himslf not to be a man of courage but a puppet of Congress whose most important need is to get money to become re-elected. To become re-elected so they can lie to the Democratic constitutents that they are really Democrats when they are no different than the Republicans.

    Obama failed to lead so he came up with a monster of a health plan drawn up by the greedy members of his own party who wanted to outdo the Republicans in bending over not backward but forward so they could be sodomized by coroporate health insurance interests and pretend they were bringing universal coverage. Universal coverage for the rich has always been available. Universal healthcare coverage for the poor and for the middle classs will become exorbitant as the middle class and the poor begin to subsidize the rich who have pre-existing conditions and will be able to afford expensive private, guaranteed-issue health insurance policies for the very young.

    Now instead of extracting a bundle from older Americans, the healthcare industry will try to extract a bundle from the rich and the sick who will have pre-existing conditions. Older Americans will die but that's what American industry wants, fresh meat for their office cubicles. The rest can be fodder for the funeral home industry and the cemetery industry before being fleeced by the nursing home industry.
    That's all you and I are to politicians in America, fodder for the politics industry, the health insurance industry, the nursing home industry and then the funeral home and cemetary industries. You dont' count. They are corrup and useless and we have to form new poltiical parties and start all over again.

  15. Funny how strong a meme can be even when it's completely out of touch with reality. For however "disillusioned" people seem to want to think young people are of Obama his approval rating with them stands at 84% and has been very steady. Contrast that to their 11% favorability for the Republican party and 60% favorability for Democrats. Republicans need to ask themselves how they plan to change minds and win elections in the future when 83% of 18-29 year olds, 70% of women, 87% of blacks and 73% of Latinos look at them unfavorably. Numbers are by research 2000.

    link to dailykos.com

  16. Two valid schols of thought here:
    1. I left home when I was twenty and my father wqas an idiot,however when I returned 20 years later I couldn't believe how smart he had become." Mark Twaine..
    2. "If your kids knew how dumb you were they would murder you in your sleep." Frank Zappa…

  17. Gay bashing is a pennywise, pound foolish strategy for GOP, but not nearly so much as immigrant bashing. Latinos were vital swing voters in 2000 and 2004, but swung strongly for the Democrats in 2008. I don't see the GOP doing anything to reverse that trend. Many Latinos are young, and at this rate, Texas could be a swing state in the next 15 years.

  18. Alex said he does not want the same people who run Amtrak and Fannie Mae to run health care. Does he want Blackwater who had to become Xe to avoid terror, or LehmanBros who went broke, to run health care? No, Healthcare administration should be trained civil servants who have to pass tests and are supervised by people accountable to the voting public. The present system is being run by criminals who deny health care simply to gain more profits.

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