War with Iraq Certain

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[published from Cole’s private email archives, 6/30/12]

From ???@??? Wed Jan 15 02:14:21 2003
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In-Reply-To:
From: Juan Cole

Date: Wed, 15 Jan 2003 01:49:03 -0500
Subject: Re: Iraq

I don’t think there is much doubt that the US will go to war against Iraq
this spring. I’d say the chances are 90%. And, I think this was decided
on very early in the Bush administration as a plan, but only became
feasible given the public mood after 9/11 and given that Afghanistan went
so well.

There were two chances to stop it. One was the congressional vote last
fall. The other was the Security Council vote in November. Probably only
the Congressional vote could have effectively derailed it.

There is nothing in the world to stop Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld from going
through with this now. Powell would probably like a second UN resolution,
but the administration does not really need that.

cheers Juan

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