Pennsylvania for Kerry? Suburbs?
Kerry did amazingly well in exit polls in Philadelphia suburbs, according to AP. That could easily offset the Bush vote in the “T.” This report is one of the few detailed accounts of voting trends in one of the contested states, aside from New Jersey, which turns out not to have been much in doubt.
If what AP is saying is true, Kerry should carry Pennsylvania. If he is doing well in the suburbs generally, he should win.
The US is roughly a third rural, a third urban, and a third suburbs. The rural vote tends to go to the Republicans, and the urban to the Democrats. So it is the suburbs that tend to determine the winner. Clinton’s success was in getting the suburban vote.