Zogby: Huckabee, Obama Surge

Zogby has just released a national new poll that shows that the proportion of voters who are undecided on both sides of the aisle has fallen dramatically. The chief beneficiaries of the voters making up their minds have been Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee.

From there, the story differs dramatically in the two parties, however. As Republican voters have made up their minds, they have suddenly during the last month abandoned Rudy Giuliani in droves, so that he has fallen from 29% to 23%. At the same time, Huckabee’s stock has risen meteorically. Romney’s numbers seem to fluctuate pretty dramatically from month to month, suggesting that the voters have not yet made up their minds about him, but he had a good month, as well. We may conclude that Republicans are not satisfied with Giuliani as frontrunner, and he is faltering very substantially. They are frantically casting around for someone else, benefitting Huckabee dramatically and to a lesser extent Romney. But given the margin of error, Romney still has not broken out of the pack, being trailed by only three points by John McCain and Fred Thompson. McCain’s numbers have firmed up a little, but not dramatically, and given his initial advantages and his money, his performance can only be called disappointing. Thompson is on a clear downward trajectory and may as well go home.

On the Democratic side, only Obama’s numbers have shown consistent and significant improvement. It is becoming a two-person race. Although Edwards’s numbers have improved a little this fall, he is stuck in the low teens.

Caveat: This poll is national and things would look different at the local level. And, note: I turned the Zogby numbers into charts so that they can be read more easily.

Zogby says:

“Support for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has surged to 22% in a national 2008 Republican preference poll, bringing him within one point of front-runner Rudy Giuliani, who enjoys slim 23% lead among likely Republican primary and caucus voters, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Huckabee’s support stood at 11% in November, moving up from just 4% in October polling. Giuliani’s support has fallen to 23% in this latest poll from the 29% support he enjoyed in November. Trailing behind Giuliani and Huckabee in third place is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 16%, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13%, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12% and Ron Paul at 4%. . .


[Note: Graph by Cole. . .]

New York Democrat Hillary Clinton’s lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has slipped from 11 points in polling last month to 8 points in this latest survey. Clinton’s support stands at 40%, up from 38% last month, while Obama’s support is up to 32% from 27% last month. . . .


[Note: Cole graph. . .]

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place among Democrats at 13% support, showing no change from polling last month. Joe Biden and Bill Richardson are tied at 3% support.

Voters on both sides of the political aisle are drawing conclusions in the nomination races, the poll shows. Undecided Republicans dropped from 21% in mid-November to just 9% in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. Undecided Democrats comprised just 4% of the survey sample, down from 14% in the mid-November poll. “

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