Zogby: McCain Dominates; Obama Enjoys Super Sunday

Zogby is circulating the below:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Ahead of Super Tuesday, McCain Dominates Everywhere Except California; Obama Enjoys a Super Sunday

UTICA, New York—Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain leads in three out of four key Super Tuesday states – winning more than 50% support in New York and New Jersey – while Democrat Barack Obama enjoyed a big Sunday bounce in important Democratic contests, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll shows.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, however, was ahead in California, expanding his lead there Sunday by six points over McCain, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee places a distant third in the Golden State. Huckabee finds himself in third place in three out of four GOP races, the exception being Missouri, where he stands in second place ahead of Romney.

In Democratic contests, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads rival New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in three of the four Democratic races surveyed, and the two were tied in the fourth. Though he draws strong support from black voters, he also does well among whites, and was ahead of Clinton with white voters in California.

This is the second release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. The surveys were conducted Feb. 1-3 using live telephone operators from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled, and in New York, only the Republican race was measured. Sample sizes and margins of error for each of the eight surveys is listed in the synopsis below each chart. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Pollster John Zogby: “A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

“In Missouri, Obama leads two to one in the St. Louis region, and has solid leads with independents, voters under 50, and African Americans. He also leads among Missouri women. Clinton leads among whites and has big leads in the Kansas City and southwestern region.

“New Jersey tied in the single day as well as three-day. It is razor thin close in all regions. Obama has 12 point leads among Independents and men, while Clinton is up by 12 among women. Obama has a 25 point lead among young voters, while Clinton leads among older voters.

“Among California Republicans, a big day for Romney. He now leads both in the north and south, among women, voters under 65, and holds huge leads among both conservatives and very conservative voters.

“For Missouri Republicans there is a split vote against McCain — with the differences mainly among conservatives and very conservative voters.

“Still looks like a good day ahead for McCain, but a Romney victory in California could mean some meetings on Wednesday morning.”

New Jersey:

McCain continued to dominate in the Garden State, though his lead dropped by two points, from 54% to 52% since the previous poll. Romney edged up from 23% to 26% in the same period. Half (50%) of Republican voters said they backed the Arizona senator, compared to 27% for Romney and just 7% for Huckabee. McCain did even better with independents, getting 58% of their support. Voters over 30 in all age categories here liked McCain, giving him 50% or more of their support. He was also ahead among those under 30, who gave him 44% support. The New Jersey GOP tracking survey included 835 likely voters and carried a margin for error of +/- 3.4 points.

Obama and Clinton were dead-even in New Jersey, each with 43% each and with 10% of voters undecided. Clinton was ahead among Democratic voters, 45% to 42%, but Obama had more support from independents, with 48% of their support to Clinton’s 34%. Half of women (50%) supported the former First Lady, compared to 38% for Obama. It was almost a mirror image among men, however, with 48% supporting Obama to 35% for Clinton. This survey included 847 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.

New York:

McCain’s lead broadened in New York state, the tracking poll here showed. He gained four points over the day before to end with 53% support. Romney, meanwhile, lost four points and had 19% support at the end of yesterday. The Arizona senator was well ahead in all regions of the state, but did best in the New York City suburbs, where he had 62% support. In the city he had 59% support, while upstate he had just 47% support. The survey included 883 likely Republican voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.


Obama was still well ahead in Georgia in the second tracking poll, with 48% support to Clinton’s 31% support. African-Americans, who made up half the sample, preferred the Illinois senator, giving him 67% of their support to Clinton’s 18%. Clinton attracted 43% of white support, compared to Obama’s 30%. Obama was also ahead among women, getting 47% of their backing to Clinton’s 32%. The Georgia Dems survey included 864 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.


McCain was ahead in Missouri with 35% support in this key Midwestern winner-take-all state, benefiting from a split in the conservative vote between Southerner Huckabee—who was is second place with 27%, and Romney, who gained two points and stands at 24%. Much of Huckabee’s support came from the conservative southwestern part of the state, where he got 41% support, compared to McCain’s 28% and Romney’s 19% support. McCain dominated in St. Louis, where he had 40% support to Huckabee’s 10% and Romney’s 25% support. This survey included 852 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.


Obama leapfrogged over Clinton in Missouri, gaining four points while she dropped two points to end the tracking period with 47% support to her 42%. Clinton continued to lead among white voters with 48% of their support to Obama’s 40%, while Obama had a four-to-one margin over Clinton with African American voters, with 72% of their support to her 18% support. The survey included 851 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/-3/4 points.


Romney’s California lead over McCain grew by three points over the previous tracking poll, to 40% support in this important winner-take-all state, compared to McCain’s 32%, a two-point loss from the day before. Romney did well among conservative voters here, with 46% of their support, compared to McCain’s 29%. That group made up more than half the sample. The survey included 915 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 points.


Obama’s lead over Clinton in California grew by two points, with 46% saying they would support him, compared to 40% for Clinton. Obama had a four-point lead over Clinton among white voters, with 45% of their support to her 41% support. Black voters liked him four-to-one over Clinton (72% to 16%), while Hispanics preferred the former first lady, giving her 55% support to his 36%. The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error.

For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
https://www. zogby. com/ methodology/ readmeth.dbm?ID=1272

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