Zogby is reporting as follows, that there is a late surge for Clinton in Pennsylvania and that her margin is being given to her by white, ethnic, Catholic men. It also seems clear that as undecided voters (which fell recently from 8% to 6%) and those who wanted “someone else” (fell from 4% to 3%) have made up their minds, they have tended to go for Clinton. Otherwise Obama’s percentages have been pretty stable though perhaps falling slightly. Clinton’s increases are beyond the margin of error.
‘Released: April 22, 2008
Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Clinton Up 10 Points; Beats Margin of Error
UTICA, New York – New York’s Hillary Clinton continued to pull away from rival Barack Obama of Illinois as the campaigning in Pennsylvania ended and voters prepared to cast ballots today, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.
She now leads Obama, 51% to 41%, having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll’s margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.
Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll. It was conducted April 20-21, 2008, using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 675 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Clinton 4-20/21: 51% . . . 4-19/20: 48% . . .
Obama 4 20/21: 41% . . . 4 19/20: 42% . . .
Pollster John Zogby: “Sounds like a radio station’s call letters, but remember WECM – white, ethnic, Catholic, men. That is what put Clinton into her double digit lead here in Pennsylvania…” ‘
Juan speaking here:
McClatchy points out that a 10-point win just won’t do it for Clinton.
It would keep her in the race, though.