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McChrystal Advises Escalation of Aghan War

Juan Cole 09/01/2009

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I have some basic questions about the “take, clear and hold” strategy that seems to be recommended in Afghanistan by Gen. Stan McChrystal, and which is modeled on the alleged lessons of Iraq.

The Sunni Arabs of Iraq, who produced most of the insurgency against the US presence and the rise of a new Shiite government, amount to less than 20 percent of Iraq’s population of 27 million. In other words, they are about 5 million strong. The compact Sunni areas such as al-Anbar Province have been special challenges.

The Pashtuns of Afghanistan, in contrast, are probably 44% of the population of 34 million, or a little over 14 million.

In other words, pacifying the Pashtuns from whom the Taliban emerge is three times more difficult than monitoring and pacifying Iraq.

Moreover, the Sunni Arabs were ethnically cleansed from Baghdad by Shiite militias, making them more willing to listen to the US and to form Awakening Councils. The Pashtuns have not been defeated by anyone.

I doubt the US & NATO have the sheer resources to put down the guerrillas in Afghanistan.

End/ (Not Continued)

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About the Author

Juan Cole is the founder and chief editor of Informed Comment. He is Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History at the University of Michigan He is author of, among many other books, Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires and The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam. Follow him on Twitter at @jricole or the Informed Comment Facebook Page

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