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IranWar Poll
Percentage Likelihood of US-Iran War in 2012 by Party

Poll: Majority of Republicans Expect War with Iran in 2012 (Infographic)

Juan Cole 03/10/2012

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The Poll Position has done a scientific poll of the American public on how likely they feel war is with Iran in 2012. They were split, but what is really interesting is the partisan divide.

A majority (57%) of Republicans believe that the US will attack Iran this year, whereas only a quarter say no.

In contrast, only 22% of Democrats thought an American-Iran war likely, with a majority (54%) saying it is unlikely.

IranWar Poll
Percentage Likelihood of US-Iran War in 2012 by Party

These findings raise the question of whether the Republicans are engaged in the polling version of Freud’s “wish fulfillment” in dreams– that is to say, you have to ask if they really want a war, and so believe it is likely.

Another disturbing finding is that among age groups, it is the 18-29 demographic that is most likely to believe war imminent, with 46% saying it is likely this year. Did the Bush adminisration, with its invasion of Iraq, raise a generation of Americans to believe that war is the normal state of affairs?

Here is the methodology: “Poll Position’s scientific telephone survey of 1,152 registered voters nationwide was conducted March 04, 2012 and has a margin of error of ±3%. Poll results are weighted to be a representative sampling of all American adults.”

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About the Author

Juan Cole is the founder and chief editor of Informed Comment. He is Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History at the University of Michigan He is author of, among many other books, Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires and The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam. Follow him on Twitter at @jricole or the Informed Comment Facebook Page

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