The USG Open Source Center translates an article from Javan, an organ of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC: Iran’s National Guard), analyzing alleged Western intelligence summits that question the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran. The article should be taken with a grain of salt, but it makes some good points. Iran has used saber-rattling to raise the price of petroleum by alarming investors and speculators, thus increasing its income in the past quarter by $3 billion, rather than suffering a shortfall. At the same time, it has inflicted pain at the pump on fragile Western economies in danger of slipping back into recession. It is plausible that there is severe doubt among intelligence analysts about the impact of and likely success of sanctions in changing regime behavior.
‘ Iran: Report Describes Western Intelligence Services’ Perspectives on Iran
Report entitled: “Behind the Scenes Look at Five Intelligence Services’ Meeting on Iran”
Thursday, March 22, 2012 …
Document Type: OSC Translated Text…
20 March 2012
Report Describes Western Intelligence Services Perspectives on Iran
Javan online: Informed sources say the wave of intelligence reports in the West that say the oil sanctions have ended to Iran’s great advantage have caused much confusion among the men of government in Europe and America.
An informed source who works in the area of the economy and tracks intelligence reports about Iran reported that in the last month more than three intelligence reports produced by European and American intelligence services classified confidential and above, have all concluded that for numerous reasons Iran has been the big winner in the oil sanctions and that in a completely smart way these sanctions have increased Iran’s revenues while the average revenues of the nations of the world are decreasing because of the economic crisis.
Nuclear Iran writes that an informed source said: “In Stockholm, teams from the CIA (America), Mossad (Israel), MI6 (England), BND (Germany) and DGSE (France) are now discussing one of the main areas of focus in these reports, which is that instead of reducing Iran’s revenue, in the last three months the oil sanctions have increased Iran’s revenues by more than $3 billion.”
This source added: “Western services who want to express views about the content of their findings believe by cleverly intensifying the verbal clashes with America and Israel Iran has caused constant shocks to the price of oil without any oil sanctions being effectively applied against it.”
According to this informed official the Western services and especially the German service believe Iran has made good use of the existing crisis in the world economy and has presented the West with a choice between weakening its economy by intensifying the sanctions against Iran or sharply reducing the sanctions.
This source continued: “The Stockholm meeting has effectively become a trial of America and Israel. The European nations believe Iran in coordination with Russia and China has used the main weakness of the Western nations, meaning the extreme sensitivity of public opinion in these nations to fuel price increases, and it has created conditions where the chance of the political survival of the people currently governing these nations has been greatly reduced, especially since almost all of these nations including America and France are about to hold elections. Accordingly the probability exists that insisting on putting restrictions on Iran’s oil sector will lead to internal crisis in the Western nations.”
This source, who emphasized the many limitations on providing intelligence about this, also added that the Western services believe the 12 Esfand (2 March) elections showed that the government of Iran has succeeded in stopping the project of “transferring pressure to the people” and has effectively not allowed foreign pressures to have an impact on ordinary life in Iran.
According to this source the intelligence evaluation of the five Western sources is that the people of Iran believe existing inflation is due to a domestic process and that there is no relationship between this inflation and the pressures of the West.
On this basis those at the meeting have decided the BBC Persian Service under MI6 oversight must produce a new propaganda package about the relationship between sanctions and inflation.
The existing intelligence shows that this meeting was a preliminary for a more essential meeting to be held in the month of May and at that meeting the European nations will examine the possibility or impossibility of applying oil sanctions against Iran in June 2012.
Existing intelligence shows that these services have still warned that insisting on oil sanctions against Iran will further damage relations with Russia, China and India.
This intelligence source said: “There is the sense that the European and American intelligence community regard the sanctions option, like the war option, as being ineffective in influencing Iran’s calculations.”
(Description of Source: Tehran Javan online in Persian Website of hardline conservative daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC); ) ‘