3rd Possibility: Coming Civil War in West Bank/ Jerusalem?

By Juan Cole | —

Observers of the evolution of the relationship between Israel and the Palestinians have long argued that there are only two likely outcomes of the alternating violence and diplomacy between the two sides that has gone on nearly 70 years now. One is a “two-state solution” wherein Israel accepts a rump Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank. That possibility has by now been more or less forestalled because of the massive land theft and colonization drive of Israeli squatters on Palestinian land in the West Bank. (The UN General Assembly partition plan of 1947, whatever one thinks of its legitimacy, awarded the West Bank to Palestine). The other is a “one-state solution” wherein Israel bestows Israeli citizenship on the stateless Palestinians. There is no obvious path to such a decision on the part of what are essentially fascist ruling parties in Israel and it is hard to imagine a scenario in which such a thing happens.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have another ending to the story in mind. And that is the “transfer” of Palestinian-Israelis and of Palestinians in the West Bank to some other country, probably Jordan. This crackpot plan of uprooting and moving 5 million people is also not very likely on the face of it.

But there is one scenario in which “transfer” (i.e. ethnic cleansing) could occur. That would be a repeat of the 1947-48 civil war in British Mandate Palestine, which eventuated in the ethnic cleansing by Jewish militias of 720,000 Palestinians out of a pre-war total of 1.2 million. Jewish terrorist organizations such as the Stern Gang simply mowed down Palestinian villagers with machine guns to scare their neighbors into fleeing their homes, which the nascent Israelis then usurped. After Israel was established, Prime Minister David Ben Gurion simply locked the Palestinians out of their homeland for good, creating a massive refugee problem in the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon that has never really been resolved to this day (only Jordan gave the Palestinians citizenship, and even there it is sometimes revoked).

Israel conquered the West Bank in 1967 and militarily occupied it, then contravened the Geneva Convention of 1949 on the treatment of occupied populations by flooding Israeli squatters into the territory. It also illegally annexed part of the Palestinian West Bank and awarded it to the Israeli district of Jerusalem, which is roughly 35 percent Palestinian. It also has gradually forced many Palestinians in East Jerusalem to depart, confiscating their property, and is building Jews-only squatter settlements all around Jerusalem with an intent of turning Jerusalem into a Jews-only city.

The Israeli government has now put 600,000 Israeli squatters into the Palestinian West Bank (including Palestinian Jerusalem), among nearly 3 million Palestinians. There is constant Israeli construction of housing on usurped Palestinian land. Squatters dig their wells deeper into aquifers and cause the wells in Palestinian villages to go dry. There is a low-intensity struggle between the incoming squatters and the indigenous Palestinians. Israelis have attacked mosques and villagers. Palestinians have killed Israelis whom they view as land thieves.

These two populations are not separate from one another in the West Bank. Nothing would be easier than for tit-for-tat killings to spiral out of control. Then you’d have a war on the West Bank, which of course the Israelis would win, being very well armed by the US and very well organized.

In the course of this coming civil war in the West Bank, Israeli squatter organizations would seek to repeat the Stern Gang’s achievements in 1947-48 of making the Palestinian population flee its homes for Jordan. Jordan, a country of 6 million, would suddenly be a country of 9 million.

On past experience, no one would do anything about such an ethnic cleansing of the West Bank Palestinians, who would end up penniless and living in tents in the desert. The spokesmen for Western governments would say they regret that it happened and maybe offer some aid money. The Arab publics would be outraged but the governments would do nothing. Some European governments might slap ineffectual sanctions on Israel. Others would praise the Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign.

The fascist parties in Israel would lock the Palestinians out of the West Bank permanently and flood in more settlers. They might even “transfer” the Palestinian-Israelis, stripping them of their citizenship and making Jordan 10 million, half of them in refugee tents in the desert). They would give press conferences where they regretted that the Jordanian government did not treat its new citizens well enough.

The Jordanian state likely could not survive being almost doubled in population overnight overnight, with most of the newcomers hostile to the Hashemite monarchy. There would likely be a republican revolution in Jordan against King Abdullah II. Extremism would flourish and an ISIL- like state in Jordan would not be impossible. The ethnic cleansing would be extremely destabilizing for the Middle East for decades to come and Israel’s security environment would deteriorate drastically. Eventually reprisals with things like small rockets would create such a sense of crisis that gradually Israelis might begin emigrating abroad in fair numbers, a process that could snowball.

The killings at the Jerusalem synagogue yesterday and the spate of Israeli killings of Palestinians in the West Bank are all small harbingers of this coming civil war.


Related video:

Chronology of Israeli-Palestinian Violence

48 Responses

  1. The oft asked question of “how this all ends,” you have just done a very realistic job of answering.

    You have, however, not given enough mention to the PR smoke and mirrors and hang-wringing that will be seen.

  2. I do not think the Israelis would be successful trying to ethnically cleanse the Arabs and in fact could very well lose the war they started.

    Israel is NOT as militarily capable as the myths say.

    The Arabs currently have more than enough war toys, cannon fodder and leadership capability to defeat Israel. The ONLY thing keeping a lid on is the current leadership in the ME prefers to enjoy the benefits of living the high-life to a messy war.

    Once the Arab body count got high enough west of the Jordan River, Israel would be in the fight of their life.

    And Israel can not really count on the US to protect it forever. I suspect that if the polling groups asked honest questions about Israel, the Israelis would NOT like the answers. Questions like . . . Are you willing to have your kids killed for Israel?

    Israelis can not grasp that a majority of their US supporters are dying off at the rate of over 2000/day.

    Israelis are making a BIG mistake if they think they can ethnically cleanse the Arabs without losing everything.

    Note also if they do succeed in “transferring ” all the Arabs, that just means all of Israel would be a free-fire-zone for the hundreds of thousands of inexpensive, but reasonably accurate and destructive missiles the Arabs have. And it would not take long for Israel’s 400 or so aircraft to fall from the sky.

    When Israel ignites the next war, they are NOT going to like the result because it is not going to go the way they imagine.

    • We’re assuming that the incoming Congress will listen to the majority of the American people. They are skewed far to the right, and many (Cruz for instance) believe in a strange interpretation of literal Biblical prophecy, the same of which helps to fund those new squatter settlements. Israel is a only a pawn in their imagined New Jerusalem. We need to speak about these things — to stop those on all sides who seek all out war.

    • Israel could lose 400 planes to what? Arabs have no air force to speak of, outside of Saudi, and they are not going to attack Israel. The oil sheiks are essentially cowards.

      • Surface-to-air missiles. Accurate long-range targeted rockets that some nations in the region possess. And more.

      • While the leaders of Saudi Arabia do indeed like their “wine, women and song” more than they want war, there are lots of very low cost ways to make very expensive aircraft fall from the sky.

        The Russian S-300/400/500 long range (200 KM) missile systems are especially deadly, particularly when they are fired in swarms. That is, firing multiple missiles at each aircraft from multiple launch systems. Virtually no aircraft can escape a swarm. There are hundreds of surplus S-300 systems available because Russia is now deploying S-400 systems and early S-500 systems. In addition, there are the Chinese and Iranian re-engineering of the S-300 (HQ-15) which is equivalent to the S-400.

        Then there are the medium range missile systems like the Russian Buk (recently used to bring down multiple aircraft in Ukraine) and the Chinese HQ-16B (which may be even more deadly) and the Iranian Ra’ad .

        And finally there are MANPADS (human launched small, fast missiles).

        Basically the world is awash in very, very deadly anti-aircraft systems that many countries have purchased and deployed (including Jordan and Egypt). Iran is especially deadly because they have all three layers (S-400 equivalent long range systems, the medium range Ra’ad, and lots of MANPADS). This is why the IDF and the USAF have zero desire to fly over Iran.

        When a country couples the firepower with things like passive radar (large numbers of emitters spread over a large area with a separate large “billboard” receiver array), even “stealth” aircraft are extremely vulnerable.

        And the economics heavily favor the missile folks. For the cost of a single aircraft and pilot, thousands of anti-aircraft missiles can be built, so even if the aircraft avoids one missile there will be many more to blow the aircraft from the sky.

        In the world of very low cost, reasonably accurate missiles and drones, aircraft and carriers are a huge, huge waste of money.

    • You said: “Israel is NOT as militarily capable as the myths say.” Says who? Israel has atomic weaponry which they will use as needed. Moreover, what you want to bet that they don’t have chemical and biological weapons of unimaginable efficacy—and the will to use them? Israel has all the military savoir faire that America has, plus Israel has its own secret super-duper stuff.
      “And Israel can not really count on the US to protect it forever. Israelis can not grasp that a majority of their US supporters are dying off at the rate of over 2000/day.” Say what? Who is dying at 2000 per day? American Christians (which is the vast majority of America) will always cheer for Israel, because of their biblical imperative. Furthermore, America’s congress would give Bibi and his successors a standing ovation (as well as a blank check) anytime. Remember that Obama personally demanded that the Democratic platform proclaim that Jerusalem is the capital of israel. Jerusalem belongs to Israel already. If you don’t believe that, just ask Congress and the president.

      • There are no “magic” weapons. Israel has no “secret super-duper stuff.” All weapons are based on science and the science is very well known to everyone on earth. You name any “magic” weapon you think Israel may have and I will explain the science that says you are full of sh*t.

        Every nation on earth that is willing to spend a little money, can buy weapon systems equivalent or better than anything Israel has or will ever have.

        This is the basic problem Israel has, it no longer has any weapon superiority and in fact because of their warfare philosophy, they are actually behind many of their potential opponents. Israel (and the US) still relies on every expensive high-tech war toys, BUT many others have figured out that hundreds to thousands of inexpensive but reasonably deadly weapons work even better.

        As for WMDs (nuclear biological and chemical), Israel does indeed have those in large quantities, BUT if they use any of them, they will be, at a minimum, committing economic suicide and quite probably actual suicide. Those types of weapons can not be contained to a single area, but will spread over the earth causing massive hatred for Israel that not even the US will be able to protect Israel from. So yes Israel could kill lots of humans (far more than the Nazi did), but it would lead to their destruction.

        A majority of the US supporters of Israel are boomers who are dying off at a rate of over 2000/day – that is just how life and demographics work. Also, the number of fundamentalist Christians is rapidly declining as generational power shifts younger. A huge majority of Americans under 40 do NOT support Israel. Just as the republicans have a large looming demographic problem, so does Israel. While the present congress is owned lock, stock and barrel by Israel that will not continue.

        basically Israel is on the wrong end of a large cannon that will soon ruin their day.

        Past is not prolog, but general lessons from the past can provide insight.

        – ALL empires die (including the Israeli one)

        – All armies suffer a final .humiliating defeat. In the last 50000 years exactly ZERO armies have avoided massive defeat. The IDF will suffer the same defeat eventually.

        – Other than the European invasion of North America, the invaders are ALWAYS driven out or assimilated and israelis are invaders.

        Take an unbiased, long term view of history and you will be able to see all the MAJOR mistakes the Israeli are making and why the many myths about Israel are all wrong.

      • No doubt the Israelites have all kinds of nasty warmaking stuff squirreled away with however many nukes the heirs of the Pharisees, link to jewishvirtuallibrary.org, are ready to detonate. Yahoo subtly reminds the rest of the world that he’s got the Samson Option in his back pocket. One might bet that the IDF’s war plans include destroying US military assets, since they have shown multiple examples of that willingness, like the attempted sinking of the USS Liberty and constant deep espionage on us as nominal “ally.”

        As to “Christian” support in the US, an assortment of context that comes to a different conclusion:

        link to haaretz.com

        link to meforum.org

        link to washingtonsblog.com

        At least the hasbara is becoming a little more subtle…

        • Since these three articles seem to be quoting each other a lot, I can’t tell if this is really important, but it is certainly promising. The key is that the right-winger Brog keeps trying to claim Israel has good excuses for its current crimes. But we know at this site that Israel has much bigger crimes pending, like stripping Arab Israelis of their citizenship. What Brog refuses to acknowledge is one word: race. He decries the dissenters pointing out that Palestinian Christians also suffer under the Occupation. But he can’t justify it. Or the suffering of Christians in Iraq due to US imperialism. He can’t say this: “Judeo-Christian” is a codeword for white capitalism and thus Arab Christians are just another bunch of sand ni**ers. It’s the racism that is driving this growing disgust with Israel. But it’s the same racism, justified by the same lies, that is being used by America’s right to justify its war on blacks and Latinos. Because it WON’T MATTER if most of us turn against Israel or the GOP if we don’t have a right to vote in the future. The narrative of the “real” Israeli or the “real” American is foreplay for electoral apartheid in both nations.

    • Your observations are generally good, but its a matter of how far you stretch them and the conclusions reached. For example, Hersch may have been a bit overblown with his book, The Samson Option, but there is that small thing…..

      Defensively Israel has got things wrapped-up for the foreseeable future, and as long as the Arabs can be manipulated into remaining in their current disarray nothing is going to happen to them. But the long-range futility of their actions that is compelling. A new generation of SAMS will be overset by a new generation of ECM, but the underlying economics, as well as the demographics, are all stacked against Israel and they’re only getting worse.

      • ECM does not work very well when the aircraft is targeted by a swarm of self controlled missiles (real cheap to do these days with Android Linux running on cheap ARM single board computers). basically the days of expensive, high-tech aircraft are numbered.

    • Huh? The chronology video prominently shows the Israeli flag front and center. This is about the world according to Israel, and Israel’s cheerleaders.

    • An independent Palestinian physician/pathologist examining the body of an Arab bus driver in Jerusalem found hanged recently has concluded that it is a probable murder, per a recent article in Haaretz, the Israeli daily.

      The victims brother had earlier reported that he observed wounds on the corpse and that the brother had exhibited no previous signs suggesting he was suicidal; he also believed that his brother had been the subject of foul play.

      An Israeli police spokesperson had initially indicated they believed the death was suicidal.

  3. I’ve read about Israel/Palestine for years and thought that Israel must have something planned other than the two-state/one-state resolutions (neither which they seemed to like). Israel has been so persistent, and so well organized in their land acquisitions over the years that it would be foolish to think it’s happened all by chance or luck.

    Lately, this third option (deporting the Palestinians into Jordan) seems to be picking up momentum. With this option, Israel gets everything they want (the land and they get rid of the Palestinians). One would think that Israel is tired of all the killing and animosity, but it seems to me that they’re just getting started.

    • “One would think that Israel is tired of all the killing and animosity, but it seems to me that they’re just getting started.”
      You are correct that Israel has a plan. It is the same program they have had since the get-go. Antagonize, nettle and provoke the natives until the natives angrily punch back; then blame the natives for being nasty, and attack and displace these “terroristic” natives in the name of “self-defense.” Notice that kin folk of “terrorists” are punished by having their houses razed. How very special is that? After the houses are razed, there are now empty plots for new settlers!
      And the beat goes on.

    • There’s a long-standing line amongst Israeli leadership, which gets out to the West often enough if you listen, that THERE IS a Palestinian State, and its called Jordan! Problem solved.

      This has all transparently been the case since 1967, at least, when the process of colonization was discreetly, but explicitly entered into by the government. It has been proceeding apace ever since. There have been two constraints. One has been political: how much can Israel get away with at any one time, given the need to keep up a impressions and indirectly get someone else (e.g., the USA) to pick up the bill, and 2) demographically: they need settlers.

      In the early nineties, after the Gulf War 1.0 and the Fall of the Wall, you had an interesting confluence, where Israel had a ton of immigrants but it lacked the political cover from Washington, since Bush 41/Baker had it in their heads that the US could follow another course. Bush/Baker’s truculence led to the need for the facade of sincerity at Oslo.

      No, this post is pretty realistic. The question is in the timing and the ferocity with which the inevitable will happen. “Civil War,” kinda overstates it, IMHO, but it will be ethnic cleansing, however much kinder and gentler a form it takes.

  4. I think this has been the under-the-radar plan all along, outside of Israel’s brief fling with Rabin’s relative generosity of spirit. It’s not destiny, but, to me, a more likely possibility, and definitely what the intentional ratcheting by Israel’s organized destabilization has been leading up to.

  5. Very well put…not withstanding where the blame is placed..it doesn’t matter anymore,the train has left the station…the Arab demographics are to strong ..there can never be peace..it only remains how Israel can navigate the storm that is coming….likely lasting decades if not longer

  6. Another possibility is that under increasing BDS type ostracisation the fragile Israeli society might fragment and tear itself apart in bloody internecine dissensions. This has occurred periodically since biblical times and, according to Josephus, largely contributed to the fall of Jerusalem in AD 70. The necessary basic divisions are present, always have been, and it could prove the tidiest solution for the rest of the world since it would lead towards an entirely internal resolution requiring no initial input from AIPAC, the US or any one else.

    • That is why it is so important for the Israeli leadership to hold its followers together by creating ever more powerful enemies. Eventually they will choose external war as the more comforting way to die than civil war.

  7. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have another ending to the story in mind. And that is the “transfer” of Palestinian-Israelis and of Palestinians in the West Bank to some other country, probably Jordan. This crackpot plan of uprooting and moving 5 million people is also not very likely on the face of it.

    Transfer of Palestinians from the Palestine Territories was part of the Zionist plan a hundred years ago and has continued to be Israel’s policy since its founding as a nation. Israel’s right-wing leadership clearly has complete ethnic cleansing as its policy and they will get away with it as long as it has the support of its morally-bankrupt supporters in the US, Europe and elsewhere. Moral bankruptcy is another constant in the US halls of power that preceded the founding of Israel and will be around until the eventual decline and fall of the American Empire – and its allies.

    Israel’s plan may be crackpot, but crackpot plans are no deterrence to its right wing and their supporters.

    “India opts out of admonishing Israel: India’s pursuit of deeper trade, political and military relations with Israel contrasts with the distance other allies have sought following the brutal assault on Gaza this summer. The Indian approach to relations, which seemingly equates the Palestinian struggle with cross-border terrorism, will not only damage India’s global image – it could also lead to flawed internal policy decisions” by Ninan Koshy – link to atimes.com

  8. Yup. No argument. Whatever will America do when Israel dissolves? Where will Israel decide to aim its nukes in its death throes? What will the world do with 400 nukes flitting about loosed by some Israeli Strangelove? Will Jerusalem and Mecca become earth’s first holy cities ringed by exclusion zones, the ruins of which are visible only from the horizon? Will a future SISI/Al Qaeda iteration suddenly find itself in possession of a bunker full of Made In Israel nukes left unused by some Israeli commander who decided in the end that leaving the Fire button untouched was probably more in line with the preferences of the great I AM than obeying a chain of command filtered down from Dr. Strange? I don’t know how a reincarnated Peter Sellers might depict a Netenyahoo, but he would have no shortage of material to work from.

  9. If ethnic cleansing was on the table as an option, then there would be no Apartheid Wall, still under construction, but almost finished. The Wall surrounds the Palestinian bantustans. Something is holding Israel back from this Nazi/Turkish/Soviet type of solution. I can’t figure out what it is.

    • The wall is just a holding pattern, and will serve as a convenient Plan B if things don’t go to plan.

      But the Plan A is to wait, and wait, and wait, and when the time comes (and Bibi doesn’t know when, but he’ll know it when he sees it) then power up the D9 Armoured Bulldozers and start shoving those pesky A-Rabs into Jordan.

    • What’s holding the Israelis back is the lack of a plausible pretext, but continuing to provoke and victimize the Palestinians will eventually produce one. Some of those primitive bloodthirsty Arabs (irony alert) will pull something sufficiently horrible to “justify” a massive population transfer on the part of the noble Israelis defending their homeland (cue soundtrack from the movie “Exodus”).

  10. This will be a war of both sides terrorizing civilians into emigration. This is where decades of cultivating US sympathy can backfire: how can a Zionist Congress oppose letting in all Jewish war refugees, causing a mass stampede for the exits?

    But consider all the other nightmare possibilities:
    1. the US Christian Right redoubles efforts to put its own crazies in the illegal settlements to make Israel ever more a 51st State and create a tripwire for direct US intervention
    2. Even if Israel is depopulated by a mass exodus, the US will just keep stubbornly fighting the Arabs out of sheer spite
    3. The Russians decide to rekindle some old alliances in the region

    • Reportedly, over half the Jewish Israelis are dual nationals, holding two passports (mostly US, European and Russian) . Often these people continue to have financial assets in their “former” country, so even if they have to flee Israel in a hurry, they will have a second home and resources.

      Keep in mind that Christian conservatives (and all religions) are a rapidly declining part of the American population (that is one of the reasons they are so vocal – they resent losing power), so they will lose the power to hurt the US over time.

      The US is stubbornly trying to continue the UK, French and Spanish empires. Just as the US has lost the fight in Asia (remember Vietnam) and most of the rest of the world, it will eventually admit to losing the ME also and quit fighting the Arabs and the Persians.

  11. Just as our greater distance from the ’29 Crash has allowed right-wing liars to delude the public into thinking that the crimes of the rich had nothing to do with the ’08 Crash, our greater distance from WW2 allows Zionists to delude the public into thinking that there’s no problem with war crimes like conquest and ethnic cleansing as long as We Do It.

    People no longer remember the principles of international law, Eleanor Roosevelt and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Four Freedoms, and that the postwar order was meant to restrain the behavior of all sides. The very concept of equality between human beings has been so slandered by capitalism that any internet discussion of Nazism today inevitably becomes flooded with comments that Nazis were “left-wingers” because they believed in Big Government. The idea that equality or racial supremacy have anything to do with good or evil has evaporated, and WW2 and the Israeli war on Arabs will be taught to your children as two great battles in the crusade to unite the world under Judeo-Christian corporatism and put the inferior races in their proper place in the global sweatshop.

  12. There is a flaw in this reasoning, which is that the Arab countries would Harrumph! loudly but, ultimately, do nothing.

    That wouldn’t be true in the case of Jordan, where you correctly point out that Hashemite rule could not possibly survive such an event.

    The King isn’t stupid – he’s understands that just as clearly as you do. And that understanding brings a certain clarity to his thinking i.e. it will demand that he launches everything he has into an attack on the IDF.

    The fighting won’t be like 1948-49 (merely a bit o’ territorial adventurism from Abdullah I), or like 1967 (Hussein I was simply trying to cling on to those ill-gotten gains).

    Win/loose/draw, each King knew that Hashemite rule over Jordan itself was never under any threat, and so his soldiers fought accordingly i.e. More Than A Little Half-Heartedly.

    Not this time.

    This time everyone will know a loss will spell doom for Jordan.

    Certainly the Royal Jordanian Army will know that, and they’ll fight accordingly.

    I suspect that you are right in the first part i.e. Israel will attempt to finish the ethnic-cleansing-job that they started in 1947.

    But, no, I think you are wrong about things going as planned.

    It won’t. The IDF will get the shock of its life when the Royal Jordanian Army punches hard into their left flank, and will get an even bigger shock when those Jordanian soldiers refuse to take a backwards step no matter how much “shock ‘n’ awe” the IDF throws at them.

    They’ll fight, they’ll keep fighting, and they will make it abundantly clear that they won’t stop fighting until Israel gives up this crazy plan.

    After all, as far as the Royal Jordanian Army is concerned the alternative is the certain destruction of Jordan, so they may as well fight this one to the death.

    • Keep in mind the Jordanian military has all the same weapons as Israel and is equally as trained. The only problem Jordan will have is they share a warfare philosophy with Israel and the US (lots of expensive war toys), but Jordan just may have allies that have lots of inexpensive weapons.

      After Israel starts their next big war, they are going to discover that a lot has changed since 1967 and they are going to have many very, very bad surprises.

      BUT . . . I think the IDF leadership very well understand that they no longer have military superiority, which is why there are indications the IDF is trying to rein-in the politicians. The rhetoric from the IDF is vastly different from the political rhetoric.

      • I think the IDF still believes it has superiority (all militaries are in love with themselves). But it knows that any victory will be so Pyrrhic that no one will be able to survive in the rubble. Jews leave, no IDF.

      • You got to be kidding…Jordan’s army?…Jordan’s allies?…rocks..slingshots?…we’re talking about open deserts..and plains..farmland…all sitting ducks for a powerful Air Force ..and Markova tanks..heavy artiliary…

        • Both aircraft and tanks are sitting ducks for modern weapons. The Iranians, Chinese and Russians have spent the last 50+ years coming up with many ways to make US and Israeli aircraft and tanks in to pieces of metal sculpture and all those weapons are readily available to all modern armies (they are a nice source of revenue for China and Russia).

          The bottom line, as I have tried to explain elsewhere, is the IDF is no where as “wonderful” as all he myths portray.

          There are very good technical reasons why the “powerful” US military LOST in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The Arabs learned a lot from the US defeats and will cheerfully apply the lessons on the IDF.

          There are also very good reasons why Israel no longer controls southern Lebanon and it isn’t because they felt an obligation to return the land to Lebanon, but because they got driven out militarily. There is also a good reason why Israel abandoned Gaza, staying was too costly militarily (this is why all those saying Israel should retake Gaza are just having delusions – the IDF leadership knows how high the cost would be and Israel can not tolerate the very high cost).

  13. How can moving five million people even be called a plan? That is just nuts if Israel’s government thinks that the rest of the world will go along with this plan. Is that the only solution they can come up with? I agree that something has to be done because it is getting worse and worse by the day. This latest incident at the Mosque is just the latest retaliation, it just goes back and forth. I think that the Palestinian people are at the end and they cant take anymore. I am sure they feel that they have no other choice but to fight back or lose their lives living in the Gaza Strip. Someone needs to come up with a suitable plan other than moving all of these people out of the county.

    • Any viable plan will have to destroy many Israeli myths and dreams, which is why Israelis fight so hard against any viable plan.

      Dreams die hard and only after every delusion has been forcibly stripped away.

  14. Sadly I see as likely the catastrophic prediction of Juan Cole, however I would have two critical remarks on its conclusion:
    1) I do not think that Israelis would emigrate abroad in large numbers for fear of Palestinian rockets from Jordan, any more than they did so far for those who came from Gaza (or many years ago from Lebanon);
    2) Israel’s security would deteriorate? It depends on the definition that you give for the word “security”: maybe for Israeli decision makers, reared all along on the strategy of the iron wall and confident in their military strength and US support, utmost chaos outside their border would not be a scenario of particular concern. Or rather.

  15. My my ,how dark are we all …?….including myself …now maybe if we thought positively…maybe just maybe …oh no…it seems that everybody here is hoping for Israel’s destruction..then they would be so so happy

    • It’s like being at a movie that depicts a character as evil and the audience develops negative thoughts about him and look forward to an ending where he gets his comeuppance.

    • I for one would be thrilled if the Israelis would wake up from their delusions and fairly negotiate with the Arabs. I do not want to see the destruction of Israel, BUT . . .

      I also know that based on 50000 years of human history that the path Israelis have CHOSEN (and they have a choice) is one that will lead to their destruction.

      In the long term, Israel can NOT win the game they are playing.

      If israelis really want to have a “Jewish” homeland that is “safe,” it is very well documented what they will have to do . . .

      Give up lots of land, water, cash (for compensation) and apologies for all their past actions.

      In other words, they will have to give up all their myths of superiority and their delusions and face the real world.

      The problem I see is the Israelis are so deep into their delusions, they will only spiral downward to the end.

  16. Having done so much for so long to enable the dispossession of the Palestinians, it seems to me that we citizens of the U.S. are morally obliged to give those Palestinians who want to come here a new home in America. It isn’t fair or just that they should have to come here, instead of returning to their homeland, but–having expelled them–Israel will never allow them back. We took in about a million Vietnamese after the communists took over. Surely we can and should do the same for the Palestinians.

    • If a high-profile country gets away with an ethnic cleansing, unlike sanctioned 1980 Vietnam, it will start to happen all over the world. It was hard to close that window in Eastern Europe until Milosevic was gone.
      And who is to say it can’t happen in America?

  17. Good idea boomer bob…now if the rest of the world would take in another 2 .3. Million…the whole mess could be. Solved..it could all be financed by the oil princes EU Israel and the worlds Jews,, like soros and their ilk….heck Ireland England Sweden Norway…they all would pitch in….now that’s a plan

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