Newark, Delaware (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – Elections in Iran have predictable outcomes. The men picked by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, engage in a quasi-debate on TV, but usually the hand-picked guy is bound to win. This year saw a minor upset.
The 2024 presidential election took place after the former President and warden of Evin prison, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter accident. In Iran, nobody believes things happen as “accidents.” But nothing points to foul play in this case.
Out of the original six candidates, two became the final contenders: Said Jalili, a hardliner who had been involved in the nuclear negotiations, and a new guy, Masoud Pezeshkian. The latter’s name means doctor, and indeed, he is a heart surgeon. Unlike Raisi, who had a 6th-grade education, Pezeshkian is a heart surgeon and also speaks several languages, including Kurdish, Azeri, and English. The turnout was very low this year. As people have been losing faith in the outcomes of elections, fewer and fewer go to the polls.
Born in Mahabad, in the eastern Azerbaijan province in 1954, Pezeshkian received his doctorate degree in medicine at the University of Tabriz and later specialized in heart surgery at the University of Tehran’s medical school. At the onset of the Revolution, Pezeshkian was a member of the Council of the Cultural Revolution, which purged many secular individuals from universities. He served as Minister of Health during the second term of President Khatami and had a noncombatant function in the Iran-Iraq war. After his military service, he returned to Tabriz and continued to practice surgery, eventually becoming chancellor of the city’s medical school. He was a candidate in the 2021 presidential elections but was disqualified by the Expediency Council.
In 2024, he finally succeeded, being elected as Iran’s ninth President with 53 percent of the vote in the run-off election. While even some reformists did not go to the polls, ex-President Khatami was among those who voted for Pezeshkian. The Islamic Republic finds new players and new “moderates” to lead the country, but the president has limited power and acts only in accordance with the Supreme Leader’s wishes.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a political scientist who follows the presidential elections in Iran closely, wrote,
- “This election was different because the first-round results marked the lowest voter turnout rate in any presidential election since the revolution, signifying serious discontent. The only other time when presidential elections went to a second round was in 2005, where fewer people took part in the second round. This time, however, some 6 million more people (10% of eligible voters) came out to vote in the second round, and they overwhelmingly voted for Pezeshkian.
“This indicates that despite their overall dissatisfaction, a segment of the public can be persuaded to change its mind when the stakes are too high. This election marked the narrowest margin of victory for the eventual winner over the runner-up (9.3%). This signifies the fact that we have a polarized public in Iran. After all, Jalili won at least 13 provinces (out of 31) in both rounds of the election.”
Whether Pezeshkian, with his narrow powers, can deliver anything remains to be seen.
In 2009, Iranians lost their faith in presidential elections when their votes were stolen. And since then, hopes for change have faded. Two years ago, the Women, Life, Freedom movement was violently crushed. Sanctions, mismanagement, wars in the periphery, and corruption have paralyzed the very system that promised the world but delivered economic malaise and the political isolation of the country. Pezeshkian has promised reform and reform of the system. In a televised speech to the nation, he shared the problems Iranians experience in their daily life.
Can Pezeshkian save the Islamic Republic? Will rapprochement towards the U.S. finally happen? Not as long as Ali Khamenei is alive.
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