Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Human-caused global heating is hitting the Middle East hard, and rates of cancer in Middle Eastern women are increasing. Is there a correlation? This is the question asked by Wafa Abu El Kheir-Mataria and Sungsoo Chun at Frontiers . These scholars are at the American University in Cairo, my alma mater (MA 1978).
The Middle East is heating up at twice the global average rate and could see a horrific 4ºC / 7º F. increase over late 19th century averages in only a few decades. This may not sound like much, but remember it is an average. At some times and places it will be twice that. Not only are temperatures skyrocketing, but drought is increasing in frequency, duration and severity.
The authors look at some of the major types of cancer in women, including breast, cervical, ovarian and uterine, and find that they have been increasing — even though the expansion in the Middle East of modern medical care should have caused the rates to fall.
I can barely stand to be in Cairo in the summer now, when some days it is 113º F. (45º C.). The last time we were in Doha, Qatar, my wife and I would occasionally walk over from our apartment to a nearby mall to eat dinner in the winter and spring. But then one day in early June we went downstairs and it was 113º F., and a blast like dragon’s breath hit us when we went outside. We went back in a called a taxi, just to go half a mile. I can’t imagine functioning outside at 120º F. And many places in the Middle East there is no cloud cover, so the sun beats right down on you all the time, which makes it even hotter. I lived about 4 years in Cairo on and off, and I think I was rained on 3 times, briefly.
The authors found that Gulf women — in places like Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, seemed to have more cancer as temperatures increased. Jordan was in the same fix. Qatari women saw increases in all four main types of cancer that distinctively strike women.
On the other hand, they didn’t find this effect in Lebanon and Algeria. My own guess is that these Mediterranean countries just aren’t as hot as the Gulf, and so far the cool Mediterranean breezes offer some relief. The summer heat in the Gulf can be unbearable and unrelieved.
So can increased heat be implicated in cancer, and how? They observe, “research suggests that external temperature influences the mechanical properties of cells. Even minor temperature changes can significantly alter cell characteristics, with increased temperatures enhancing optical deformability, including in breast cells.”
Cancer is cells running wild, and the authors are suggesting that extreme heat can set them off. If this suggestion is confirmed, it is very bad news.
It is more a hypothesis than a finding, however. They admit, “The correlation between temperature, cancer prevalence, and death does not imply causation. There can be other contributing factors including genetics, lifestyle, exposure to environmental pollutants (e.g., PFAS), and access to health care, gender disparities, long-term exposure to carcinogens such as PM2.5 and endocrine-disrupting chemicals.”
That is statistics 101. A correlation may not show causation. There could be a third term involved. Rising heat and rising cancer might not be directly related.
For instance, rising heat leads to more air conditioning use. In the youth of many older women, air conditioners involved hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). They have since been banned to save the ozone layer. While the chemicals were not themselves carcinogens, some of their breakdown products may have been. Or, in many households in the Middle East people run diesel generators for electricity when there are blackouts or brownouts. Some studies, which are not conclusive, have suggested a link between diesel exhaust and cancer.
“C Cell,” Digital, ChatGPT 2025,
Still, Ruby Mellen’s story at WaPo on the article quotes the University of Washington’s Julian Marshall as saying that “For some pollutants such as ozone, and in some cases PM2.5 [fine particulate matter], air pollution would be worse — all else being equal — with hotter temperatures.” Mellen writes, “When it’s hotter, chemical reactions happen more quickly; it’s why we store food in refrigerators to keep it fresh longer.”
There is a lot of fine particulate matter in the air in the Gulf, and if hotter temperatures make them harder on the human body, then that would be a problem. The Gulf is one huge construction site, and modern construction of skyscrapers involves a lot of particulate matter and toxins.
In the end, the only thing the authors can be sure of is the correlation. More and wider studies would be needed to nail this phenomenon down with respect to causation. But if there is a link between heating and cancer, we’re in big trouble.
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