( openDemocracy.net ) – Less than a month ago, received wisdom was that Donald Trump was so angered by the Israeli bombing of Hamas negotiators in Qatar that he had forced Binyamin Netanyahu to agree to a peace deal. The first stage of that deal was a ceasefire, which took effect, and the Israeli prime minister appeared humbled.
But was he?
Remember that before the 10 October ceasefire, the far-right parties in Netanyahu’s government saw a clear future for Israel. The war would continue until Hamas had been eliminated, and Gaza would then be cleared of Palestinians. Where they would go was far from clear, but there was talk from Netanyahu’s people of the “international community” picking up the pieces.
Meanwhile, the West Bank would be annexed, with its three million Palestinian population under such intense pressure that many of them would also eventually leave via Jordan.
The eventual result would be a peaceful and secure Israel with a substantial Jewish majority, quite unlike the present demography, where non-Jews slightly outnumber Jews. Threats to Israeli security from the “near abroad”, such as Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, would be controlled with air strikes. These would include the destruction of the Iranian nuclear programme and regime change in Tehran.
Immediately after the ceasefire, many analysts believed the Israeli far right’s desires were no longer achievable. A stable ceasefire seemed at last to be a realistic prospect.
A month later, we see a very different outcome. Just ten days ago and following the killing of an Israeli soldier, Netanyahu ordered one of the heaviest series of airstrikes on Gaza since the start of the two-year conflict. At least 104 Palestinians were killed, including 35 children, and 200 were injured, according to a tally by Agence France-Presse of those reported dead and wounded by medical officials at five Gaza hospitals. In all, there have been 236 Palestinian deaths since the start of the ceasefire.
While it is still possible that the ceasefire will survive, it is now highly unlikely. For a start, despite Israel being seen as a pariah state across most of the world, it retains Trump’s support. Then, throughout the protracted and low-level negotiations over the next stage of the peace deal, the occupied West Bank has not been subject to any serious discussion.
Instead, parliamentarians in the Israeli Knesset have begun paving the way for the annexation of the whole of the West Bank. Despite opposition from Netanyahu and his Likud party, lawmakers in the 120-seat chamber voted in favour of the bill 25-24. For now, that vote is largely symbolic – the bill will face three further votes – but it serves as a marker for what is intended.
In Gaza, Israel is controlling a ‘buffer zone’ that makes up more than half of the entire territory, a large strip of land surrounding most of the populated areas where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are crammed into tents and wrecked buildings.
The boundary of that zone is being carefully marked out by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) using substantial yellow concrete posts every 200 metres, and a BBC Verify analysis of videos and satellite images suggests the markers are being placed hundreds of metres deeper inside the Gaza Strip than the agreed withdrawal line. The IDF is also reinforcing scores of military outposts within the buffer zone.
Many Palestinians believe the IDF plan is to treat this supposedly temporary arrangement as permanent on the assumption that there will not be a long-term transformation to a lasting peace.
Within the restricted area, most public buildings are either gone or are severely damaged, including all the universities, most colleges, and many schools. Nearly half of Gaza’s population is under-18 – compared to around 21.5% of both the UK and US populations, for comparison – meaning hundreds of thousands of children do not have schools to go to.
While some more aid is getting into Gaza and some UN agencies are now operating, Israel is controlling food imports, as well as electricity, oil and gas supplies, and it can decide how much aid gets in and what form it takes. It is also bringing in new regulations that give it even closer control over the flow of aid while making it difficult for private international humanitarian agencies to operate or even base their own nationals in Gaza.
These regulations and other requirements mean that movement of aid is, even now, well below the 600 trucks a day required to support the population of Gaza. As of last week, almost $50m worth of essential goods, including food, medical supplies, hygiene items, and shelter materials, were waiting at crossings and in warehouses.
Netanyahu is therefore in a strong position in most respects. A month after the start of the ceasefire, Israel is in control and most of the hardline plans for Gaza are still there. Life for Palestinians across the occupied West Bank is getting worse, and settler interference in the economically vital olive harvest has intensified. The UN has recorded 86 olive harvest-related settler attacks resulting in casualties, property damage or both since the beginning of last month.
The full extent of the far-right dream may not be there since wholesale ethnic cleansing is not currently possible, but what Netanyahu can plan for is to maintain control until Israel’s general election in October next year. Meanwhile, he needs to maintain support in the US, hence the recent news that Israel has contracted US public relations firms to boost its image.
From Netanyahu’s perspective, that is an acceptable outcome. It is, though, fatally flawed.
Photo of Gaza 2024 by khalid kwaik on Unsplash
Hamas has not been destroyed and is taking back control of what is left of Gaza while defeating the local paramilitaries who are backed by the IDF. Conditions for Palestinians in Gaza are appalling and they are worsening for those in the occupied West Bank, all the time increasing the number of angry young people who have seen family members and friends killed or maimed.
Hamas and other movements of opposition will persist and, in all probability grow, with the Palestinian cause backed up by international support across much of the world. In due course, governments will increasingly begin to impose economic sanctions and trade limitations on Israel, as has already started with the Spanish arms trade ban last month.
The saying that ‘Israel is impregnable in its insecurity’ may be even less true now than before the Hamas attack two years ago, and any idea that Israel is at last on the way to being safe and secure is simply wrong.
Paul Rogers is Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at Bradford University, and an Honorary Fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College. He is openDemocracy’s international security correspondent. He is on Twitter at: @ProfPRogers.
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