I personally think the game plan is switching from protecting the Y to outright crushing the rebellion and ending the civil war.
Before the Russian intervention Syria's army was being bled white by the constant flows of men and material entering from Turkey. Without this line of support the life span of the opposition would be measured in months. The downing of the SU-24 has permitted Russia to take a gloves off approach to the border which has profoundly effected the rebels. Now they are the ones hurting for munitions and manpower. Cracks are beginning to show, with the most telling being how easily Salma fell and how quickly Latakia has been rolled up in the last couple of weeks. Note that Latakia is the hardest area in Syria for which to conduct an advance owing to the mountainous terrain. I would be surprised if Kinsibba lasts the week and the remainder of Latakia more than two weeks. The rebels will then have lost all border access in this region and have Idlib threatened on three sides from Latakia, Hama and Aleppo. When the offensive begins on Idlib I don't give it more than three months and with it will be the loss of this border region with Turkey as well. All that leaves is the Western region of Aleppo to the South of the Kurds and the Northern region of Aleppo sandwiched between the Kurds. The Kurds are poised to strike from the East and large Syrian army forces are building in the Aleppo area. If the border is sealed or close to it, only direct military intervention from Turkey could change the course.
Although there is a level of support for the rebellion, the Islamification of the resistance has made Assad much more palatable, if not desirable by the large majority of the population. The Russian military has illustrated a night and day difference of skill just from its engagement in Georgia in 2008. The coordination with the Syrian army will continue to get better and better speeding up the situation whereby every rebel region is presently receding. In the Syrian region, ISIS is wilting and when the border is sealed and Al-Nusra and company are dealt with in the West its demise will come quickly. Hence I am going to make the prediction that all but mop up operations will remain in 2017 fro the Syrian army. (Feel free to mock me harshly next January!) The biggest grey area in my mind is how the Kurds and the Syrian government will settle their differences.
I personally think the game plan is switching from protecting the Y to outright crushing the rebellion and ending the civil war.
Before the Russian intervention Syria's army was being bled white by the constant flows of men and material entering from Turkey. Without this line of support the life span of the opposition would be measured in months. The downing of the SU-24 has permitted Russia to take a gloves off approach to the border which has profoundly effected the rebels. Now they are the ones hurting for munitions and manpower. Cracks are beginning to show, with the most telling being how easily Salma fell and how quickly Latakia has been rolled up in the last couple of weeks. Note that Latakia is the hardest area in Syria for which to conduct an advance owing to the mountainous terrain. I would be surprised if Kinsibba lasts the week and the remainder of Latakia more than two weeks. The rebels will then have lost all border access in this region and have Idlib threatened on three sides from Latakia, Hama and Aleppo. When the offensive begins on Idlib I don't give it more than three months and with it will be the loss of this border region with Turkey as well. All that leaves is the Western region of Aleppo to the South of the Kurds and the Northern region of Aleppo sandwiched between the Kurds. The Kurds are poised to strike from the East and large Syrian army forces are building in the Aleppo area. If the border is sealed or close to it, only direct military intervention from Turkey could change the course.
Although there is a level of support for the rebellion, the Islamification of the resistance has made Assad much more palatable, if not desirable by the large majority of the population. The Russian military has illustrated a night and day difference of skill just from its engagement in Georgia in 2008. The coordination with the Syrian army will continue to get better and better speeding up the situation whereby every rebel region is presently receding. In the Syrian region, ISIS is wilting and when the border is sealed and Al-Nusra and company are dealt with in the West its demise will come quickly. Hence I am going to make the prediction that all but mop up operations will remain in 2017 fro the Syrian army. (Feel free to mock me harshly next January!) The biggest grey area in my mind is how the Kurds and the Syrian government will settle their differences.