Farhang: I disagree. I think about 30% of Iranians are solid reformists, about 30% are solid conservatives, and the votes of this 60% are predictable from one election to another. However, the remaining 40%'s votes are highly dependent on contingencies: candidates' charisma, character, and liability; the perception of the candidate as a political insider or outsider, recent political and economic developments (effects of sanctions; handing out money as Ahmadinejad did in his provincial trips, etc.).
Your position is like saying that Obama's election proves that if American elections were fair, the Democrats would always win! In fact, scientific polls show that the public's preferences could shift significantly in a matter of days; thus Ghalibaf lost a lot of support in the last ten days prior to the vote. To try to extrapolate the results of an election based on another one four years earlier or later is as absurd in Iran as it would be in the U.S.
As for Rowhani, although he's closer to the reformists, both he and the reformists characterize him as a "centrist," i.e., somebody who takes a middle position between the conservatives and reformists. He is, after all, Khamene'i's representative on the NSC. It's entirely possible, indeed likely, that many fans of Ahmadinejad voted for Rowhani. In addition, Rohani was the only clergyman among the pool of candidates, and the one with the greatest charisma and talent in public speaking, factors that may have swayed some people.
Let me close by saying that not all reformists think that the previous election was fraudulent. For example, Abbas Abdi says: “This idea that has been repeated for several years, that the opposite side can ultimately engineer the election [results], is false. This is a myth that should be gotten rid of once and for all” (Etemad Daily; for the link, see my other comment here). Another reformist, Akbar Ganji, wrote that it is entirely possible that in the previous election Ahmadinejad had the majority vote.
Not all the reformists buy the conspiracy theory that the previous election was fraudulent.
For example, Abbas Abdi says:
"This idea that has been repeated for several years, that the opposite side can ultimately engineer the election [results], is false. This is a myth that should be gotten rid of once and for all."
Another reformist, Akbar Ganji, wrote that it is entirely possible that in the previous election Ahmadinejad had the majority vote.
Personally, I think many reformists found it too painful to recognize Ahmadinejad's popularity and couldn't bring themselves to admit it. Besides, in Iran, the average person is convinced that "the nation" thinks just like him/her; the nation can never be wrong; so, it would cause him/her an identity crisis to admit that the nation does not agree with him/her, since it would follow that he/she must be wrong.
I think the nation can be wrong, and the popularity of Ahmadinejad is a good example of that.
Farhang: I disagree. I think about 30% of Iranians are solid reformists, about 30% are solid conservatives, and the votes of this 60% are predictable from one election to another. However, the remaining 40%'s votes are highly dependent on contingencies: candidates' charisma, character, and liability; the perception of the candidate as a political insider or outsider, recent political and economic developments (effects of sanctions; handing out money as Ahmadinejad did in his provincial trips, etc.).
Your position is like saying that Obama's election proves that if American elections were fair, the Democrats would always win! In fact, scientific polls show that the public's preferences could shift significantly in a matter of days; thus Ghalibaf lost a lot of support in the last ten days prior to the vote. To try to extrapolate the results of an election based on another one four years earlier or later is as absurd in Iran as it would be in the U.S.
As for Rowhani, although he's closer to the reformists, both he and the reformists characterize him as a "centrist," i.e., somebody who takes a middle position between the conservatives and reformists. He is, after all, Khamene'i's representative on the NSC. It's entirely possible, indeed likely, that many fans of Ahmadinejad voted for Rowhani. In addition, Rohani was the only clergyman among the pool of candidates, and the one with the greatest charisma and talent in public speaking, factors that may have swayed some people.
Let me close by saying that not all reformists think that the previous election was fraudulent. For example, Abbas Abdi says: “This idea that has been repeated for several years, that the opposite side can ultimately engineer the election [results], is false. This is a myth that should be gotten rid of once and for all” (Etemad Daily; for the link, see my other comment here). Another reformist, Akbar Ganji, wrote that it is entirely possible that in the previous election Ahmadinejad had the majority vote.
Mohammad Esrafili
Not all the reformists buy the conspiracy theory that the previous election was fraudulent.
For example, Abbas Abdi says:
"This idea that has been repeated for several years, that the opposite side can ultimately engineer the election [results], is false. This is a myth that should be gotten rid of once and for all."
(Link: http://www.etemaad.ir/Released/92-03-26/204.htm )
Another reformist, Akbar Ganji, wrote that it is entirely possible that in the previous election Ahmadinejad had the majority vote.
Personally, I think many reformists found it too painful to recognize Ahmadinejad's popularity and couldn't bring themselves to admit it. Besides, in Iran, the average person is convinced that "the nation" thinks just like him/her; the nation can never be wrong; so, it would cause him/her an identity crisis to admit that the nation does not agree with him/her, since it would follow that he/she must be wrong.
I think the nation can be wrong, and the popularity of Ahmadinejad is a good example of that.
Mohmmad Esrafili
This idea of people arguing for teams rather than right or wrong is intriguing. I wonder how far the argument can be taken
Dave