Iraq Minorities Among most Threatened
Al-Hakim Warns on Sunni Arab Violence
Iraqi minorities are among the more endangered in the world, according to Minority Rights Group International.
The group's web site is here.
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim is warning that mere political arrangements will not end the Sunni Arab guerrilla war. While al-Hakim is correct, the reason he is likely saying this is to combat pressure on him from the US government to accommodate the Sunnis in parliament more.
In fact, two big Baghdad bombs killed 23 on Thursday.
And the thirty-odd police recruits kidnapped earlier in the week are feared dead.
UPI reports that it was another grim week in Iraq. Martin Sieff also suggests that the figures on successes against the guerrillas are way too optimistic, in view of its continued obvious vigor.
am traveling. will try to blog more on Friday.
posted by Juan Cole @ 1/20/2006 12:47:00 AM
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5 Comments:
Why Are We Still in Iraq?
There were no WMD.
Saddam is out of power.
Elections are over.
Our military can't catch Zarqawi--in fact, is supposedly just getting around to raising the attention devoted to him, according to the 37 page "plan" W. recently offered.
Our military is unable to protect the Iraqi population from daily bombings and kidnappings.
The US now seems to be courting the insurgents more assiduously than the new "democratic" government, apparently in the naive hope that the Sunnis will "buy into" a government that wants to give them no more than their due. (Six cabinet seats seems about right, if the total is 25 or 30 cabinet posts.)
Our military role seems to have segued into a political one of "leaning" one way or another to seek--or avoid--balance, depending on how you view it.
Is this the desired end state? Would Congress or the UN have bought it if explained in these terms, given the $1-2 trillion cost, and the deaths and wounded to date, not to mention the doubling of oil prices and the huge drop in national prestige?
One could argue that the US military is almost irrelevant in military terms, as the casualty rate for Jan. would be about half that of Dec. if the helicopter downings had not occurred. (There does not seem to be a continuing capability to down choppers.)
However many tens of thousands of Iraqi troops and police have been "stood up" (a truly inspired double entendre) since W. raised the issue, it doesn't seem to have enabled the US to withdraw any troops, even though the elections were over over a month ago.
Are the troops just being kept around until it's time to invade Iran?
If the Sunni insurgents have really been damaged, wouldn't this be a good time to step back and let the Shiite/Kurd government show their mettle and defend their own interests and new-found democracy? Freedom isn't free, so why should we keep picking up their tab?
We won, it's reasonably quiet, and we should withdraw our troops with honor and dispatch.
It's not clear what more we can do by staying, and the price of whatever it is that we are doing is quite high. The political and prestige value of a "smart redeployment" would be huge.
How many conflicts like this have been settled without some sort of political arrangement?
Speaking of travelling, I caught your lecture last night at UC Santa Cruz. Thanks so much for speaking. It was quite educational. I'm sorry I missed today's lecture on Iran. Do you know how I might view the video for it? And perhaps review last night's lecture as well?
Juan, I'm sure you tire of commenting on mainstream news, but I am anxious to hear your view of the Iran 'nuclear question' since Europe seems to have backed away from Iran.
My view of it is that Iran, having all land bordering it invaded, wiped out, poisoned by the US, and given repeated threats from Bush and Co., would of course desire to be armed to the teeth. The only legal grounds for criticizing Iran seems to be that they made the mistake of signing the Non-proliferation act, a mistake that US allies like Pakistan and Israel did not make. I am baffled that Europe and Russia are stepping back, as Iran seems a threat only the degree they are responding to outrageous US policy. In other words, they seem quite open to negotiation.
I would also like to hear your view of the Bin Laden communique.
Mr. Juan Cole,
I have been hoping to hear your take on the new OBL tape. I have heard a few rumors that the opening prayer is not correct?
I count on you for your expert insight.
Thanks
capt
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