Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Deadly Sectarian Violence kills 76, Wounds 179
Talabani Condemns Jaafari for Turkey Visit


The Los Angeles Times estimates the dead in various attacks throughout Iraq on Tuesday at 76, with 179 wounded. Details are below.

In the meantime, the glacial political process among top Iraqi politicians was roiled on Tuesday by a confrontation between President Jalal Talabani, a Kurdish leader, and Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari.

Jaafari planed a visit to Ankara without consulting Talabani or his cabinet, according to Talabani, who accused the PM of returning to his old high-handed ways. Talabani thundered that Jaafari's behavior contradicted the clear desire expressed by the major parties that the next government be one of national consensus. He said the prime minister was not at liberty unilaterally to make agreements with foreign states that might bind Iraq in the long term.

Talabani said that Jaafari was supposed to notify the president and also the speaker of the house about any planned trips abroad, according to the Transitional Administrative Law. (Since the largely American-authored TAL has been de facto if not de jure superseded by the Iraqi constitution, which was approved last October 15, and since the religious Shiites who have essentially won two elections in the past year always rejected the TAL, Talabani's attempt to impose it on Jaafari at this late date is unlikely to succeed.)

This dispute may seem minor, but it probably signals that Talabani is determined to unseat Jaafari as the prime ministerial candidate for the United Iraqi Alliance. It also seems likely that Jaafari is seeking to do some sort of deal with Turkey of which Talabani disapproves. (The Iraqi Kurds don't generally get along with Ankara). In fact, one of the few things that could explain Talabani's outburst would be that Jaafari is secretly exploring Turkish military aid of some sort to the new Iraqi government. The Kurds would consider that out of bounds, since they are afraid of the Turkish military. Turkey is dead set against the emergence of an independent Kurdistan, for fear that its own Kurds might try to secede and join it.

Al-Hayat says that Muqtada al-Sadr is heading for Ankara as well, at the invitation of the Turkish government, and bringing some Sunni leaders in his entourage. Something is afoot between the Shiites and the Turks.

Since Jaafari needs the Kurds to form an initial government and get a president who can appoint a prime minister, this outbreak of Kurdish hostility to him could derail his candidacy for prime minister in the new government. They are already saying in Baghdad that it will take 2 months to form a government, but if the Shiite religious parties in the United Iraqi Alliance have to start from scratch in choosing a prime minister, it could take much longer. Meanwhile the country outside the Green Zone is in flames, aside from Kurdistan and maybe a few southern cities.

Lin Noueihed reports that armed militias and gangs rule the streets of Iraq. As for Tuesday's worrisome violence:

Al-Zaman [Ar.] reports that guerrillas detonated 4 carbombs in Karada, New Baghdad, a gas station in southeast Baghdad, and North Baghdad.

Guerrillas killed a US soldier in West Baghdad with small arms fire.

A Sunni mosque in the Hurriyah district of Baghdad was blown up.

Guerrillas attempted to assassinate Dahham Radi al-`Asal, a senior adviser to the Ministry of Defense with a roadside bomb, but only managed to kill 5 and wound 7 of his bodyguards.

In downtown Baghdad, guerrillas used a roadside bomb to wound 3 Iraqi police near al-Nida' mosque.

The Iraqi army found 9 bullet-riddled bodies in Nahrawan. All of them were from that city, near Wasit south of Baqubah. The dead included Shaikh Khital al-Muhammadawi, chief of the Al Muhammad tribe in the city.

In Nasiriyah, a roadside bomb aimed at an Italian convoy instead wounded two Iraqi civilians. The Italian soldiers escaped unscathed.

In Amara, guerrillas deployed a roadside bomb against a British convoy, killing 2 British soldiers and wounding a third.

Hmm. Someone seems to be targetting Coalition troops in the south of the country.

A rash of assassinations of physicians in Mosul continued, with the killing of Dr. Ya`sun Sulayman. [There has been a series of assassinations of doctors in Mosul? Everywhere you look south of Kurdistan, you find new corners of this ongoing horror show in Iraq!]

A roadside bomb in Kirkuk that targetted a high police official instead seriously wounded 4 civilians.

A bomb attack inflicted significant damage on a small mosque in Tikrit where the father of Saddam Hussein is buried.

Mortar shells landed near the television station run by the Iraqi Islamic Party, killing two senior employees at the station. [The Iraqi Islamic Party has a television station in Tikrit? It is a Sunni fundamentalist group descended from the Muslim Brotherhood).

In north Fallujah two bullet-riddled bodies showed up in the street. In the same place, guerrillas used a roadside bomb to kill two Iraqi national guardsman.

The Association of Muslim Scholars (hard line Sunnis) denied on Tuesday the reports that Shiite families had been forced out of Sunni neighborhoods in west and north Baghdad. It also confirmed that there were 26 casualties among worshippers at the Dhat al-Nitaqayn Mosque in New Baghdad when it was shelled during evening prayers on Monday.

Nancy Youssef reports from Baghdad that Sunni Arabs are sending arms to Baghdad and forming militias to match those of the Shiites, which attacked Sunni mosques last week. More good news.

4 Comments:

At 4:01 AM, Blogger Spin proof said...

The Kurdish Alliance has 53 seats, under 20% and Talabani has not been elected the new president yet.

Both the Kurds and SCIRI are being ditched by the US, and both are very angry. Until very recently, the three of them formed a Vulture Group determined to keep the injured Iraq as weak as possible so they can feed on it.

The Kurds by an ever expanding Kurdish 'empire'. SCIRI by having an Iranian-controlled south and, as the majority, everlasting rule of central government.

The American fantasy was to have the 'Kurdish Model': continuous cold/warm civil war between warlords lacking heavy weapons, the reserve of the 30,000 US troops acting as the arbitor and controller.

The Sunnis, judged to be the only anti-American section were to be divided between people they can buy, passives, and walking dead.

Now the US is telling the Kurds that Kirkuk is off the table and SCIRI that the Americans will no longer fund Badr, basically an Iranian terror group!

The Iraqi CIA operatives who were to run most of the ministries (on the basis of their vast expertise gained while living in the West,) but giving the US a freehand have all but disappeared.

The Americans now wants Iraq to be united enough to avoid chaos in the Gulf, but weak enough for Israel and a possible 3rd Gulf War. The genius who is supposed to pull that off is Bush (stop laughing please!)

 
At 4:01 AM, Blogger Sulayman said...

It looks like the last pieces to prepare for the Civil war have fallen into place. Now the Sunnis are forming their own militias to match the Shi'a ones, and the Kurds and Guerillas were way ahead of them.

Has the die been cast yet? We just need an incident to trigger the civil war, and draw in regional players. If Bush picks a side in this, we might have the risk of terrorism from the opposing groups.

Prof. Cole, do you imagine this could play out worse than Lebanon? You lived there, can we do anything in the meantime to forestall this? Any lessons learned that can stop the bloodletting?

 
At 5:37 AM, Blogger SandSkeptic said...

As We Stand Paralyzed....

That is a fascinating report about Turkey's current views on Iraq. Erdogan couldn't have been much plainer about a special status for Kirkuk, which explains Talibani's pique.

It looks like the process of forming a new government is in a state of prolonged paralysis, which means the current government will just more and more keep right on with keeping on, rather than just marking time as care-taker. All the new ministerial candidates and their putative entourages will start getting antsy at some point, wanting to get at their new perquisites without indefinite delay.

In this extended interregnum of uncertainty, perhaps you could do a series of looks at the other countries surrounding Iraq and what their views are on the situation there, and what stance they might take on key issues? As time permits, and press items come to hand?

As the US increasingly realizes its own inability under current leadership to positively influence the course of events in Iraq, it may be turning to surrogates to act on its behalf. Or potential surrogates may just decide to act on their own in what they believe to be their own interests. Discovering, discussing and influencing the views of other international actors used to be what US diplomacy was about, back when we had leaders who had "receive" as well as "transmit" capabilities, and who cared about facts.

 
At 7:14 AM, Blogger EdoRiver said...

1) I think the ongoing negotiations with the Turks is very important. If some major bloodshed occurs between Shia and rebel-terrorists then if the Turkish army or disguised Turkish military are brought in to "protect innocent Shia and Sunni civilians" this would be a major wedge for the Kurdish faction to deal with.

2) the latest CNN reports that Bush seems to believe that the sudden capture of Osamu ben Laden will resurect his stature at least in the US in time for the elections.

3) I really like what you have said about Islam being a "soft power" it reminds me of the plastic explosive that can be moulded into any shape. Do you think that even if the US forces withdraw, the recriminations between the various competing Shia political factions will continue to blame America by CIA involvement?
4) If you were the head of the CIA would you be prepared for a US troop withdrawal anytime soon?
5) If Iran becomes a more active player for any reason, and let us suppose that the Turks are also involved by some deal with the Shia factions, would the mixture of these two together work? How does Iran feel about Turkey these days?
6) I haven't heard about any underground smuggling of arms from Saudi Arabian Sunni. IS there another proxi for this connection or is it just not happening for some reason?
If this is too much, Prof. Cole you can edit as you like.

 

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