42 Iraqis, 3 GIS Dead in Civil War
The Iraqi Civil War took the lives of another 42 persons on Tuesday. The most horrible attack was in the Shaab district of the capital. Drivers of two minibuses attacked a market. The first shot 7 persons down, then when a crowd gathered, a second minibus driver detonated his payload near a petroleum truck. The truck became a fireball, killing another 17 Iraqis and wounding at least 38. (Aljazeera is reporting the death toll from this attack at over 40.)
" At least 17 Iraqis were killed in other attacks in and around the capital and two police officers shot dead in the northern oil hub of Kirkuk.
A US soldier was killed by a bomb in the south of the capital, the US military said, adding that two soldiers were killed in a similar incident in Balad, north of the capital, the previous day."
Al-Zaman says that fighting continues between the US military and guerrillas in Ramadi, with 12 dead and 12 wounded on Tuesday.
Al-Zaman /Reuters report that early on Tuesday morning, shops that sell wine in downtown Baghdad were bombed. The perpetrators were likely adherents of some form of political ISlam, whether Sunni or Shiite.
Gunmen assassinated the coach of Basra's soccer team on Tuesday, according to Megan Stack of the LA Times. She also reports on the continued haggling by the four biggest partlies in parliament for cabinet posts.
Al-Zaman reports that [Ar.] hundreds of Iraqis are fleeing Basra for Baghdad every day because security is even worse in the southern port city than in the capital. The armed gangs that dominate the city are also interfering with oil exports. The paper's sources say that thousands of Iraqis once resident in Basra are living with relatives in Baghdad, waiting for the security situation to improve in the southern port city. Wealthier Basrawis, fearful of being assassinated or kidnapped by the gangs, have come up to Baghdad and rented homes for their families.
Death squads are responsible for the 700 to 800 assassinations during the past month in Basra. President Jalal Talabani has asked Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi (SCIRI) to take over the security file for Basra. Local police are helpless, the report says, in the face of tribal fueding and the sinister role played by the intelligence services of neighboring countries. Attempts had been made to mediate between the warring parties, by the representatives of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other great clergymen and merchants, but those have come to nothing and a new framework is needed. The oil port is being guarded by patrols of the mainly British multinational force. The militiamen and armed gaings have begun setting up temporary checkpoints on most streets of Basra to check on the identitity of passers-by and the passengers in automobiles.
The fragmentation of Iraq has already led to a militarization of eastern Anatolia, but it could also lead the Turkish government over-reacting in such a way as to keep Turkey out of the European Union. A new, more hardline general is about to come to power in Ankara, and he will have no patience for Iraqi Kurds' moves toward autonomy. In the worst case scenario, Turkey could be broken up.
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/17/2006 12:30:00 AM
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The question is, was it wise to remove the pressure cooker lid that kept all the anger in check, namely Saddam, or should the world have allowed his regime to continue. When his reign ended , at his death obviously, the continuation of his regime would have continued under his sons who would have very little of the power control that the father had. Then the steam would have come off but probably in a manner that led into direct civil war and all the ramifications that would have had for the ME 20 years down the track. At least, though chaotic, we currently have the beginnings of a way out with some semblance of cohesion broken only by the actions of smaller groups whose desire is merely to acheive a breakdown of the society in order to impant their own new regime. The die are cast and retreat into civil war and what that would do for the beginnings of democracy in the place that probably needs it the most outside of Africa is not an option. Criticism is essential btu alternatives are limited.
So it will be about 50,000 civilians have died there? In a few years?
I am sorry, but even saddam wasnt that bad.
More Bad News from the Land of the 2 Rivers...
Withdraw, move on and rampage’
- Le Monde Diplomatique
[Mathieu Guidère heads the Strategic Information Analysis Laboratory at St Cyr, Brittany, and Peter Harling is a consultant with the International Crisis Group in Brussels]
Iraq is simultaneously descending into both a civil war and a war of resistance against foreign occupation. The United States has been hoping to exploit the divide between Iraqi patriots and global jihadists, but the Sunni Iraq’s resistance evolvesopposition is growing more structured and unified as it adapts to changing conditions, and may transcend those divisions.
The Waves Lap Further Out
As the waves of disorder lap further and further away from Iraq across more and more countries, it may be worthwhile looking at some of the repercussions.
Kurdistan. If the 60,000 or so peshmerga are trying to take over Kirkuk, how will they stop the 250,000 Turks going in to Shermanize PKK bases? How many Iranian troops would join in burning out any incipient independent Kurdistan? Where would the millions of Kurdish refugees go to other than the labor-hungry factories of the EU and the US? Does the US have any major bases in Kurdistan? How would the US supply bases in Kurdistan without access through Turkey? How would the outside world assist Kurdistan if the surrounding areas are all in turmoil?
Turkey. However useful the prospect of eventual EU membership may have been in eliciting important improvements in Turkish policies, no one in Turkey is holding their breath waiting for membership to be granted. A pause is unlikely to surprise too many.
A large scale incursion into Kurdistan or further into Iraq could take many forms, and there could be many different types of outcome, depending on the course of events.
A break-up of Turkey seems unlikely at present, but would certainly also generate massive refugee flows, in the high millions or more, into the EU and the US. Huge investments in Turkey and the surrounding countries would be at great risk.
Concrete interests of many countries would be involved, and more vigorous reactions might be invoked than has so far been the case with Iraq alone. On balance, this may not redound entirely to the US's interests.
The leadership in Iraqi Kurdistan was able to keep a lid on the PKK all through the 1990's because they were not spread as thinly as they are now, in Mosul, Baghdad, Tel Afar and elsewhere. The PKK is able to organize and stage attacks in SE Turkey because the PUK and KDP are tied down dealing with the Iraqi insurgency.
Paradoxically, Turkey would benefit by the Kurds withdrawing more of their forces from the center of Iraq and increasing security in Kurdistan. Turkey freaks out at the thought of an independent Kurdistan in Iraq, but the peshmerga are the only forces able to limit the growing rebellion in SE Turkey.
Turkey faces a real dilemma. The Iraqi Kurds are willing to control the PKK (they have many times in the past) but they are having a difficult time marshalling sufficient resources at the moment. At the same time, the growth of pan-Kurdish media is starting to erode the ability of the Iraqi Kurdish authorities to demonize the PKK even among their own constituents. If Turkey were to invade or attempt to shut down Iraqi Kurdistan by an economic boycott, the Kurds on both sides of the border would only grow closer.
Kurdistan in some form or another is inevitable. People may not like it, but it is a fact. The expansion of Kurdish media, the huge diaspora, the last 15 years of self-rule... these combined factors will make it impossible to crush Iraqi Kurdistan and pretend it never existed. The Kurds, like the Palestinians, have created a virtual state that crosses borders, even continents. Turkey is better off accepting reality, investing heavily, localizing Kurdistan in northern Iraq, and engaging them constructively in an effort to prevent civil war in Turkey.
I fear that Turkey will eventually attempt to stamp out Kurdistan altogether, out of their deep contempt for the Kurds as a people and out of a mistaken perception that they can return to the Turkish nationalism of the 1930's. That sort of attitude mirrors the delusional thinking of some Zionists in Israel and in the US who feel that the Palestinians will simply disappear and become Jordanian given the passage of time.
I want to know where is the outrage at the bombing of the innocent men, women and children in the West Bank by Israel? The ambassador to the U.S. said there have been over 5000 bombs dropped there in the last 15 months, on homes, businesses, etc. This was reported on CNN International briefly today, stating that electric lines have been destroyed and not replaced. Children are afraid to walk to school. Women and children live in constant fear and sleep together in groups, afraid in the night that their home will be blown up next.
The U.S. gives more aid to Israel than any other nation, to the tune of billions of dollars, yet we put NO conditions on this money. Do you hear secretary of state Rice making comments about how outrageous this is and demanding that this stop immediately in accordance with International Law or else all U.S. aid will stop immediately?? Why is it that we put conditions on Palestinian aid but NOT aid to Israel? They can do whatever they want without answering to anyone? Isn't this turning into genocide? Who is going to stop it if we don't?
If Turkey and Iran decide to divide Iraq, there would be nobody to stop them , especially if they had some sort of permission from Russia. An alliance of Iran, Turkey and Pakistan would have three million square kilometers of land, three hundred million people, oil, nukes, and control of several of the choke points of world commerce.. Of course, this is a Science Fiction scenario, but odder things have happened. If the Middle East did not need America as it's major oil market, then all bets would be off... Just a thought..
An independent Kurdistan - one controlling its own foreign policy, its own army etc. - could only survive if the US were to guarantee it military cover indefinitely. That won't happen, for any number of obvious reasons. What seems to be emerging, irony of ironies, is a near-duplicate of the March 11th, 1970 "two nation one state" solution designed and signed by the Baathist Government and Mustafa Barazani/KDP. It lasted about a year, and then collapsed. Have circumstances changed? Have the leaders and their goals changed? I think not, at least on the Kurdish side. Sooner than later, they will fight for independence, with everything that follows from that. And now as then, the fight will be over Kirkuk.
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