Bush: Lean on Syria
I cobbled the Bush-Blair exchange on Israel and Lebanon, accidentally caught at the G8 on mike, together fromWaPo and ABC News.
BUSH to Blair: "I think Condi is going to go (to the Middle East) pretty soon."
BLAIR: "Right, that's all that matters, it will take some time to get that together . . . See, if she goes out she's got to succeed as it were, where as I can just go out and talk."
BUSH: "See, the irony is what they need to do is get Syria to get Hizbollah to stop doing this shit and it's over."
BLAIR: "Who, Syria?"
BUSH: "Right . . . What about Kofi? That seems odd. I don't like the sequence of it. His attitude is basically ceasefire and everything else happens."
BLAIR: "I think the thing that is really difficult is you can't stop this unless you get this international presence agreed." . . .
BUSH: "I felt like telling Kofi to get on the phone with Assad and make something happen. We're not blaming Israel. We're not blaming the Lebanese government."
So, the whole blow-up is Syria's fault, for putting Hizbullah up to making mischief. No reference to Israeli actions in Gaza. No reference to, like, the wholesale destruction of Lebanon by the Israeli air force. And no blame for the Lebanese government of Fouad Siniora. And Bush thinks that Nasrullah of Hizbullah takes direct orders from Damascus. And he thinks that if Bashar al-Asad orders Hizbullah to stop firing its little katyushas and give back the two Israeli soldiers, everything will suddenly settle down.
It is an astonishingly simple-minded view of the situation, painted in black and white and making assumptions about who is who's puppet and what the Israeli motivations are. Israel doesn't appear as a protagonist. It is purely reactive. Stop provoking it, and it suddenly stops its war.
Since Israel is just being provoked and has no ambitions of its own, in this reading, it is useless to begin with a ceasefire. That treats the two sides as both provoking one another. Here, only Hizbullah matters, so you lean on Syria to lean on it, and, presto, peace breaks out.
It is a little window into the superficial, one-sided mind of the man, who has for six years been way out of his depth.
I come away from it shaken and trembling.
----
PS More from from Billmon.
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/17/2006 07:12:00 AM
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61 Comments:
Professor Cole,
What is so shaking and trembling about President Bush's comments?
What are Israel's motivations?
Perhaps a simple minded view of the situation makes sense. What do Hezbollah and Hamas want? The destruction of Israel. Jews out of the middle east (dar-al-Islam) or at least under Islamic rule.
And, right now, Syria and Iran what that too. (Iranian leaders, at least, have stated as such pretty clearly). Kill all the Jews.
Everybody understands the situation. Bush I think, understands this s*** as much as anyone else.
The Beeb has what it claims is the full transcript: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5188258.stm
Time's cover story on the death of Bush's cowboy diplomacy was premature. That the lead cowboy is from the "Can't Shoot Straight" Gang makes it all the more worrisome. However, he did contract the job to the Israeli's. American planes and U.S. built bombs are threatening the lives of some 25,000 American citizens. Does Bush not note that irony as he cites Syrian and Iranian equipping of Hezbollah? The man is a simpleton and thinks the average voter is likewise. We will know in just a few months! Peace.
Well said Professor.
This glimpse of Bush's diplomacy is really quite heartbreaking. He talks "shit" with his mouthful. I'm sure English people are embarrassed that their (intelligent - however gone awry leader) is spoken to in this way...it's hardly respect.
Bush has a typically simple-minded approach to the situation. You get the feeling he's summing up in one sentence the only part of the morning's briefing that he listened to. The man is either a dry drunk - seing the world in classic black and white rigidity or worse a wet one...i.e. still drinking.
Poor America but it is much more unfortunate for the people of the middle east. How many deaths can be attributed to the fact that Bush is in power?
It's a sad time.
He doesn't sound fit to be "leader of the free world" now does he. A little table manners are needed for starters, then we can take him through world history, geography, politics, diplomacy, international relations and hopefully also finishing school.
All the drugs and drink he has consumed over the years have left him with little to fall back on but his personality...
Oh shit.
Can someone remind me about something called the "Cedar Revolution" and all the talk from Bush about how Syria leaving Lebanon was a wonderful thing. What an ass. Now the country gets bombed and he blames Syria for not stopping it? This guy is drinking way too much.
It's not fair to say the whole thing is Syria's fault. A large part of the blame goes to Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas. Syria can't force Hezbollah to not kidnap people, and Hezbollah can't launch rockets if Iran and Syria don't give them any. Hamas kidnaps on it's own and makes it's own rockets, so their solely at fault in the south.
To reply to mplspundit,
Hizbullah wanted Israel out of Lebanon. Hamas wants Israel to go back to the 1967 borders, the Green Line. Mark Levine, who interviewed actual Hamas members, has written on Prof Cole's blog how Hamas wants a two-state solution; "a divorce from the Jews."
Israel's disproportionate response won't help themselves. Bombing Palestinian powerplants won't make the Palestinians change their vote, nor will bombing Lebanese residential areas far far from where the rockets are being launched.
Excuse my ignorance:
1.) What are katyusha rockets? Are they "home-made," or are they manufactured professionally?
What is their payload? How do they compare to the bombs that Israel is using against the Lebanese infrastructure? What does the Geneva Accords say about targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure?
2.) I thought I heard on NPR that Hezbollah wanted the women and children held in Israeli prisons included in the prisoner exchange. Is this correct? What are women and children doing in Israeli prisons? Are the Israelis grabbing the family members of Hezbolla leadership and holding them hostage, or are these people actual combatants?
Professor,
I don't see what was so horrible about what Bush and Blair said. And you wrote "No reference to Israeli actions in Gaza", but professor the action you are referring to was due to the kidnapping of the first Israeli soldier in addition to Hamas suicide bombings outside of Gaza, in Israel. So, why shouldn't Israel defend itself? It's not as though Israel is trying to kill civilians in Lebanon... they are going after Hezbolah, because the Lebanese government won't. Israel has even gone out of the way to avoid civilian casualties by using precision guided bombs (as opposed to Hezbolah's randomly dropped rockets on Haifa) in addition to dropping leaflets to warn civilians to take cover and stay away from Hezbolah buildings. I don't know what else you could ask of them.
"So, the whole blow-up is Syria's fault, for putting Hizbullah up to making mischief. No reference to Israeli actions in Gaza"
I thought Israel and the Palestinian branch of Hamas came to an agreement and it was nixed by the SYRIAN branch of Hamas.
Why Lebanon has blown up?
Now Bush says that is enough for the Syrians to make some sort of a phone call to Hezbollah to stop violence in Lebanon. Blair looks more pragmatic, he suggests international peacekeeping presence in Lebanon.
For informed observers, all this looks strange to say the least. First, although Syria and Iran have huge influence on Hezbollah, there is nothing like SyriaIranHezbollah Inc. with HQ in Damascus and Tehran and Beirut branch. Syrians and Iranians do not give orders to Nasrallah and Nasrallah is not king of Hezbollah, his removal won't change much - this is an essentially networked operation. As for complete disarmament of Hezbollah, as with Hamas, it is completely unrealistic.
As for the international peacekeepers, this solution is known in the ME for ages, and it always turns out that no international peacekeepers can effectively assure separation between Israel and anti-Israeli guerillas. Israelis always say that they can't outsource their security to anybody and Islamist guerillas have no enthusiasm for foreign military presence. No, it is hard to imagine that Yugoslavia type solution will ever work in Lebanon - neither Hezbollah nor Israel are going to like it.
At this point, it makes sense to remind that all through the 1990-ies and up till now, from 1990 to 2005, everything was more or less quiet in Lebanon, Hezbollah did not attack Israel. Why? The simple answer is, back then, Lebanon was occupied by Syria. On these terms, Syrians were able to use their excellent relationship with Hezbollah and prevent from attacking Israel - in return for certain favors, the exact nature of which outsiders are not supposed to know.
Next came assassination of Hariri and what we were supposed to take for "Cedar revolution" and "victory of democracy" in Lebanon. More concretely, in 2005, Syrians were forced to withdraw from Lebanon under the US and Israeli pressure covered by the UN bureaucracy. In fact, anyhow reasonably, this "Cedar Revolution" thing never smelled good because any interest of patently islamophobic neocons in Lebanese progress is and always was hardly believable.
The conclusion is, now we can fully expect heavy PR campaign built around "erase Hezbollah bandits", "free brave Israeli soldiers" and "stop Syrian, Iranian terror masters" themes. In fact, it has already started not only in the US and Israeli media, but in the Russian blogosphere as well. Absurd as usual for competent observer, this PR is actually as smart as it gets because connecting the dots is never simple in the ME.
The problem is, "erasing Hezbollah bandits" theory will never tell what if anything can be done to put Lebanon back together. Further, after "Cedar revolution", IDF return to Lebanon is on the table - as well as reoccupation of Gaza, disintegration of PA and direct Israeli rule in WBG. Simply put, escalating crisis is pretty much out of anybody's control.
An American commented a while ago:"I don't mind a heartless leader, but I can't take a heartless loser".
After declaring the kidnapping of soldiers as a great opportunity to finish off Hizbullah and punish bot Syria and Iran, now he begs Kufi Annan to call the Syrians to put pressure on Hizbullah to stop firing back .. and its over!!
The stature of Nasrallah must have grown ten fold in the last few days. Remeber Zarqawi's elevation by the Americans.
With enemies like Bush, who needs friends?
«What are Israel's motivations? » -- mplspundit
One word : water!
«2002 September - Row with Israel over Lebanon's plan to divert water from a border river. Israel says it cannot tolerate the diversion of the Wazzani, which provides 10% of its drinking water, and threatens the use of military force.» (source : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/country_profiles/819200.stm )
Also read : http://mondediplo.com/1998/07/13water
Dear Prof. Cole and fellow IC readers,
For complete, unedited audio of the exchange, go to:
http://video.ap.org/v/en-ap/v.htm?g=8F49641D-7553-402E-B712-C31F81E6DC71&t=s60&p=hotvideo_breaking+news&&f=ap
and scroll down to "Caught On Tape: Bush Speaks Mind on Mideast Peace"
Best Wishes to All,
Reuben
Bush administration operates under the delusion that state actors are behind all events. This thought goes back to the anti-communist days where all revolutionary movements were seen as backed by the FSU, China or Cuba. In Bush world all terrorism is supported by a state such as Iran, Iraq or Syria. Bush underestimated al Qaeda because they are not a "state" actor. Bush went after the state actors, Afghanistan and Iraq but did not roll up bin Forgotten. Yes, this administration is clueless and tone deaf. We have to try to minimize the damage until 2009.
Bush overestimates the ability to resolve international relations by military force or threat of force. In the Bush view, the use of force by Israel left unfettered will resolve the situation.
The Bush handlers keep him away from the mike in hopes people won't discover his cluelessness. The only reason we get this glimpse of the true Bush is an accidental mike pickup.
This is the key bit:
Blair: Look - what does he (I think the PM is talking about Assad) think? He thinks if Lebanon turns out fine. If you get a solution in Israel and Palestine. Iraq goes in the right way...
Bush: Yeah - he's [indistinct]
Blair: Yeah... He's had it. That's what all this is about - it's the same with Iran.
It looks like these two idiots really believe that Syria and Iran ordered Hezbollah and Hamas to stir up some trouble because they're afraid that:
A.) There will be a peace settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
B.) The "Cedar Revolution" will create a strong, united Lebanon, and
C.) Things in Iraq will "go the right way."
How much more out of touch with reality can you be? Their own wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur have produced a complete fantastical view of what motivates their enemies AND their ally.
I hate to violate Godwin's Law, but this really does read like table talk with Hitler, circa 1945.
I share your conclusing sentence. In the absence of effective mediation, the radicals will rule the day. Looking to Syria is just the sort of half-measure and delay that will lead us to a world war.
Condi is our best chance. Maybe she's read a book or two that will allow her to realize the severity.
This much shorter address will also take you to the AP video:
http://video.ap.org/v/en-ap/v.htm?f=AP
Some of the comments are priceless! Does it not seem somewhat over the top to invade a country to free a couple of kidnapped soldiers -- if one followed that line of reasoning, there would be a lot of countries invading Cuba to free their citizens from Gitmo. Even more scary is that Perle and co-cabalists may get their ultimate wish.
The thing that is really scary about the Bush-Blair exchange is the childlike logic it displays. How can two supposed world leaders be debating the future of a country's existence and blatant violations of int'l law in such terms? Is this the way our elected leaders debated Sarajevo? Luckily these two clowns are on the way out.
hardly anyone seems to know about the Israeli abductions of those two Gaza civilians. 'disappeared' as it were.
the abductions that started it all...
Our President, our leader, our great statesman, chews his food with his mouth open and talks with his mouth full of food. After his remarks which indicate so little understanding of the situation, and his continual remarks about the pig in Germany, maybe he should always spend his summers in Crawford. Being President is "hard work".
I think this is what psychologists call "projection" Dr. Cole.
it's hard for me to believe that world leaders with the powers of these two talk to each other about life-and-death situations in this fashion. wow. i think *i* could do better than this. let's hope we have real diplomats somewhere who are taking this whole "shit" somewhat more seriously.
mplspundit, I'll try to help out by answering your questions (and asking you a few):
>> What is so shaking and trembling about President Bush's comments?
>The comments display a very deep lack understanding.
> Luckily, we have history to help us judge that understanding.
> How successful was Israel's last incursion into Lebanon?
> You might find that running a policy by the reality test helpful.
>> What are Israel's motivations?
> As with most nation-states, Israel has a number of reasons for doing what it does.
> Strangely enough, the actual motivations mean little.
> It is the actions that matter.
>> What do Hezbollah and Hamas want?
> A Palestinian state that is not controlled by Israel.
> Your followup comment of
"The destruction of Israel. Jews out of the middle east (dar-al-Islam) or at least under Islamic rule... Kill all the Jews." seems to reflect the same simplistic analysis we are discussing.
> Do you really think that is the only, or even the highest, priority of Hezbollah and Hamas?
>> Everybody understands the situation.
> Everybody has to deal with reality in the end.
In this mess of who is at fault and what is the real agenda, I wonder what Syria is thinking at this moment? If they sense that they are going to be an eventual target, would they cross the border into Lebanon?
I'm under no illusions that this fight broke out over a few kidnapped soldiers. If there is a long-term solution to be had that doesn’t end in massive bloodshed, I certainly can’t see it.
Depressing.
Hamas wants Israel to go back to the 1939 boundaries. Iran has expressed the same aspiration, repeatedly, and directly from the mouth and pen of its president.
This, not the fact that Bush sees Syria as the key to Hezballah's policy choices over the next short time, is what should leave Mr. Cole shaken and trembling.
The convulsions that would attend any serious attempt on the part of Iran to enforce its Final Solution would dwarf anything the world has seen since 1945.
"See, the irony is what they need to do is get the U.S. to get Israel to stop doing this shit, and it's over."
The Israelis seemingly have good information (spies), yet they don't seem to know where the missiles are being hidden. Are they deliberately allowing missiles to hit Haifa, or are the missiles very mobile? Also, who is in control of them--who has the expertise?
Last question, is it possible that Syria did instigate in order to regain control of Lebanon?
I come away from it shaken and trembling.
Whoo Hoo.
I'm old fashioned, I'll stick to "Twisting and Shouting" but rock on Dr. Cole.
Billmon said, "It looks like these two idiots really believe that Syria and Iran ordered Hezbollah and Hamas to stir up some trouble..."
I doubt that Syria would need to order Hezbollah to stir up trouble. All they would need to do is supply the rockets.
At 9:41 PM, Frank from Austin TX said...
Excuse my ignorance:
> 1.) What are katyusha rockets? Are they "home-made," or are they manufactured professionally?
Katyusha ("Little Katy") rockets were used by Russia for attacking German troops in WWII. They're unguided, and aimed like artillery. Dozens fired in batches at one time will blanket an area up to 30km away.
> What is their payload? How do they compare to the bombs that Israel is using against the Lebanese infrastructure?
Bombs are dropped from airplanes. Katyusahs are fired from 10-ton trucks.
> What does the Geneva Accords say about targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure?
Hizbulla doesn't care about the GA. Civilians are their main target.
> 2.) I thought I heard on NPR that Hezbollah wanted the women and children held in Israeli prisons included in the prisoner exchange. Is this correct?
Yes
>What are women and children doing in Israeli prisons?
They are criminals or assassins. Women are used as suicide bombers by the Palestinians. The "children", also suicide bombers, are usually Palestinian teenagers, still technically children to 18 years old.
> Are the Israelis grabbing the family members of Hezbolla leadership and holding them hostage, or are these people actual combatants?
No, they're would-be assassins captured or disarmed. If they're successful, of course, they blow up.
There is a degree of Cognitive Dissonance, Hubris and Hypocrisy wich is common to Bush supporters, and supporters of the Terrorist state of Israel. Several of these people have posted on this thread, and showed an attitude and understanding not unlike that of the Bushling.
God help us all, but these are the idiots with the guns and bombs in their hands.
The only thing which springs to mind when considering the viciousness and hatred of Zionists is the saying that "As you sow, so shall you reap"
Israeli avarice and nastiness have brought us to the day, let the harvest begin.
Actually incredible to think it, but Iraelis make Americans seem reasonable and informed.
I hate to violate Godwin's Law, but this really does read like table talk with Hitler, circa 1945.
Bringing up Hitler is not a violation of Godwin's Law. It is, on the contrary, following Godwin's Law:
As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.
Responding to some of Frank's questions:
"1.) What are katyusha rockets? Are they "home-made," or are they manufactured professionally?"
Katyusha rockets are Iranian-designed, -built, and probably -supplied that Hezbollah has been using. For more information, see http://www.defensetech.org/archives/002582.html#comments.
"What is their payload? How do they compare to the bombs that Israel is using against the Lebanese infrastructure?"
Hezbollah's armamentarium is far inferior to Israel's. The main question is how much direct help Iran (and to a lesser degree Syria) is able to provide--Iranian military technology is much more closely comparable to Israel's.
I hope this clears up some of your questions.
Shaking and trembling? Get some cajones. Real Men do not tremble when hearing profanity.
In a world of barbarians, mumbo jumbo diplomatic make nice speech is worthless. Direct speech, you do this and I kick your butt, is what is required. Hezbollah started this shit, and much to Hezbollah's suprise shit can happen to them.
You gutless, (testostrone deficient to be more precise) European Wussies only think appeasement. If we only be nice to them then they will be nice to us. What a crock. You kick ass.
Give war a chance. The middle east problems will only end when one side or the other is abjectly defeated. So badly beaten that these losers question the truths taught to them at their mothers' breasts. It is time to let this come to its conclusion. 58 years of spineless appeasment has to come to an end.
And if you are a member of western civilzation you had better pray that Israel wins this war. Hezbollah wins and your ass is grass, your women are in a Chador and we are back to the dark ages.
I wonder if Israel is aiming to grab more land, this time from the southern section of Lebanon.
They act like bullies, sorta like Bush's Amerika.
What is there about this situation in Lebanon (ot anywhere) that makes you think that two world leaders who get daily intelligence briefings from around the world and consult and converse with other world leaders know less than all of you about what is actually going on? I guess they just don't have your sources and your insight. Maybe you should just give ol' Bush a call and set him straight.
Or not.
Bush spoke plainly for anyone who has ears to hear. If you aren't aware of the Hamas and Hizballah stated dedication to the destruction of Israel, you aren't paying much attention. Hamas refused to repudiate that position after the elections and Nizrallah (sp?) has stated bluntly what Hizballah's purpose is.
Anyway, keep living in your fantasy world and the grownups will continue taking care of things.
From what I hear about this blog, this comment will likely be deleted but not before you have to read it.
an astonishingly simple-minded view of the situation
What else do you expect from a man who flaunts his mediocrity like it is some kind of virtue?
but professor the action you are referring to was due to the kidnapping of the first Israeli soldier
Let’s not forget that Israel frequently goes into the Palestinian territories and abducts Palestinians. There are 10,000 Palestinians currently held in Israeli jails, and many of those prisoners have not been charged with a crime.
Also, Israel has gone into Gaza many times and executed people without a trial, a policy known in the West as “targeted assassinations”.
It's not as though Israel is trying to kill civilians in Lebanon
Then why is Israel bombing bridges, power plants, highways and hospitals?
Israel pulled out of Lebanon in 2000 and out of Gaza last summer.
So what possible rational justification could Hamas in Gaza and Hezbullah in south Lebanon have in kidnapping people from and launching rockets into Israel??
So, if it wasn't Syria and it wasn't Iran, and Hezbollah did the kidnapping all on its own, what was their motivation?
I'm really curious.
Did they just want to get in the news, or what?
Let's see whether I understand some of the comments. Iran says it wants to destroy Israel, people here say they don't mean it. Hamas says it wants to destroy Israel and has a charter to prove it, and people here say they don't really want that. Hizbullah keeps saying Israel is an illegitimate country but people here are sanguine that they don't mean it.
Nope, nobody means anything they say.
Palestinian terror groups blow Israelis up at felafel stands and buses, people justify it (occupation!). Hizbullah attacks Israel - civilians and soldiers, folks, not just soldiers - a number of times over a period of years from behind a border the UN has approved, and people claim it's a small provocation and may be justified (prisoners! Shabaa!). They accumulate 12,000 rockets from Iran (remember what they said about Israel?) and Syria, but everybody dismisses them as another Lebanese militia.
Wow, the prognosis of the experts here is that...Israel is over-reacting.
It became clear, and I think this is reflected in the massive Israeli popular support for this war, that Israel needed to retaliate in such a way that will eliminate the threat of Hizbullah and the Palestinian terror groups upon Israel's population and re-establish deterrence. Deterrence saves lives, but the passage of years and Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and Lebanon have led some in the region to think it is weak (like a spider web, said Nasrallah).
Why is it wrong to assume that Syria or Iran can pull the plug on these activities? Syrian- and Iranian-supplied rockets make up the bulk of Hizbullah's war chest. Funding for Hamas comes from the same countries. One doesn't need to be a fan or critic of Bush to recognize that the simple solution to this war is the disarming of Hizbullah, placing Lebanese military in control of S. Lebanon, and the release of the kidnapped soldiers who were kidnapped without provocation from a country that had unilaterally left Lebanon. Syria and/or Iran should be able to push Lebanon and Hizbullah to do this.
I admit that Bush's table manners are lacking, but he is right on target here - Syria and/or Iran need to tell Hizbullah (and Hamas) to stop pulling this shit. These countries probably won't, and we know they won't, but that is precisely the point - if they won't, then after six years of Palestinian war and Israel watching Hizbullah build its missile arsenal, the only avenue that remains open is war until the other side calls uncle (uncle Syria, that is).
Oh, and be sure to place the blame with these groups and countries, cuz Israel was out of both Lebanon and Gaza.
I'm somewhat amused at those who so easily discard Syrian and Iranian influence in the region. Those who seem to be paying attention recognize the giant vaccuum of space coming from the conference of Arab foreign ministers where outright condemnation of Israeli actions would in the past be a 100% guanantee....and see nations such as Saudia Arabia and Egypt questioning Hezbollah motives a good thing. There is an obvious politcal shift occuring in the region where "Jews" are not simply seen as the sole destabalizing force by Arab states any loger and while of course old habits die hard(as evident by the need to bash Bush in the face of reality here)openly antagonistic statements between Syria and many other Arab states shouldn't be so easily dismissed.......I understand that being reality based here might make one deal with the inconceivable notion that Cowboy BushMcHitler just might comprehend the situation fine.
-Z-,
your answers to mplspundit are either not well thought out or intentionally misleading. For example.
>> What do Hezbollah and Hamas want?
Your answer shows a complete disdain for not only the Hezbollah and Hamas political organizations because you deny them their very own charter(s) it sugarcoats the conflict into something it is not. Both state quite unequivocaly that what they want is the destruction of Israel...they don't fight for Palestinians..they use the Palestianians for their own cause and are proxy fighters for states that can no longer face Israel heads up in that goal. There's no reason to be dishonest and mistate what Hamas and Hezbollah want.....give them their props at least.
Does it need to be mentioned that Blair's 'envoy' to the Middle East, Lord Levy, is currently under investigation over the cash-for-honours scandal -- a scandal that leads directly to Blair himself? While Putin's barb towards Bush made the headlines in the US, he also had a jab at Blair for that particular mess in response to comments about Russian corruption.
The substantive point: neither Bush nor Blair have had adequate cabinet-level engagement with the region; it's starting to show, in a very scary way. It's rare to have a lame duck prime minister -- they're usually dispatched speedily -- and for Blair to linger is deeply unhealthy.
I don't accept Billmon's analogy: it's more reminiscent of the Great Powers c. 1914, shrugging their way into a Great War because none has the will nor the skill to avoid it.
bakho sort of beat me to the punch. I think it might have been Richard Clarke a couple of years ago that talked a lot about how this administration just could not fathom terrorism being led by non-state actors. This was supposedly why they did not take the constant warnings they were getting about Al-Quaida seriously.
It is odd that they still could not fathom any organization having power or aims that were not just the puppet of a particular state. A less generous person might accuse them of having a "pre-911 mindset". I happen to be a less generous person and I'll even go a step further and accuse them of having a pre-Enlightenment mindset.
What’s interesting to me is 1)Blair trying to explain Kofi Annan’s position on getting to a cease fire; 2)Blair trying to sound as if he’s skeptical of Annan’s plan while trying to convince Bush to go along with it; 3) Bush not realizing the sure folly of sending Secretary Rice into Syria after he has publicly condemned the country’s leadership; and 4) How clearly Bush believes that he not only is the Decider for America, that he is the Decider for the World, when he mentions that he will get on the phone and “tell Kofi to get on the phone with Assad and make som’mn happen.”
Blair is not the poodle any longer, I suppose being on the way out supplies one with more freedom to think straight. I tend to doubt the Rice trip will happen, groundwork laid or not. Bush is too obsessed with his sandwich to know Blair is trying to play him. SUCKA.
billmon, I think at that point in the discussion they were talking about Annan.
Frank from Austin TX asked:...
"
1.) What are katyusha rockets? Are they "home-made," or are they manufactured professionally?
What is their payload?
Katyusha rockets are rocket artillery, usually Soviet, but made by Soviet-bloc and other allied countries as well. There are lots and lots of these left over from cold war. They are essentially rocket-propelled 122mm and 140mm artillery shells - pretty powerful stuff if it lands on you.
"...How do they compare to the bombs that Israel is using against the Lebanese infrastructure? ..."
Katyushas were designed for saturation bombardment, to create a shock effect on enemy forces. They are very inaccurate, and in the context of the current conflict, their only use is against civilian areas as a terror weapon.
There is no comparison to the Israeli weapons used against the Lebanese infrastructre - the Israeli artillery and aerial weapons are sophisticated, expensive and highly accurate. Further, the Israeli military has a policy, and indeed a history, of not intentionally targeting civilians. If you notice, the Israelis are hitting infrastructure, not civilian housing - the purpose is to pressure the Lebanese government to implement UN Sec. Council Resolution 1559, which requires the Lebanese Army to take military control over southern Lebanon and to disarm Hezbollah.
"What does the Geneva Accords say about targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure?..." The Accords prohibit targeting civilians - unfortunatley, Hezbollah is not a "High Contracting Party" under the Gen Accords, and anyway, has never shown any hesitation to attack civilians.
"[What does the Geneva Accords say about targeting] ...civilian infrastructure?..." Oh, I see what you're getting at - trying to find something to hang on the Israelis - listen, Israel has suffered bombardment from southern Lebanon ever since it removed its remaining forces from there in 2000. That's an act of war. The kidnapping of soldiers was just the last straw. Precision bombing of airfields, ports , and power stations to pressure the Lebanese governement to do what they should have done, what they were obligated to do, long ago, is legitimate.
"... 2.) I thought I heard on NPR that Hezbollah wanted the women and children held in Israeli prisons included in the prisoner exchange. Is this correct? What are women and children doing in Israeli prisons? Are the Israelis grabbing the family members of Hezbolla leadership and holding them hostage, or are these people actual combatants?"
They are combatants - women who have engaged in assault, murder, attempted homicide via suicide bombing,etc. They are treated humanely and have access to Israeli courts, lawyers, etc. The children have been born during their incarceration, and the Israelis made provisions for them to remain with their mothers if that was the mother's wish. Actually, to say that the treatment is humane is a vast understatement - there was recently a segment about this on one of 60 Minutes or one of its counterparts.
Poor little israel. There it was minding it's own business of spreading love and joy on to the world when the mean evil a-rabs come in and kidnapped THREE WHOLE SOLDIERS for no reason!.
Oh the agony, oh the humiliation. How can anybody commit such vile acts against god's favorite people. The israelis who do nothing but good all the time.
Now israel has no choice but to kill lots of people. Those evil arabs KIDNAPPED THREE SOLDIERS!!!!!. Oh the agony!. This kind of vile acts can only be countered with carnage and whosale murder of hundreds of civillians. There is no other way.
Israel is blameless. They are pure and kind people who would never ever do anybody any harm. Anybody who tells you that they are occupying 3.5 million people, torturing people, imprisoning women and children or rounding up people without charges or trials is lying.
Israel good. Arabs bad.
Anybody who says otherwise is a racist pig anti semite!
My layman's view of this derives from a tourist visit to Lebanon and Syria last year, where my tour group met Hezbollah Party members.
My biggest impression of Syria was its poverty and weakness, that it does not represent a threat to anyone. I also do not believe Hezbollah takes orders from Damascus.
1) Katyusha is a generic name for a free flight rocket developed by the Soviets during the Second World War. The are different versions, each with a unique name, range, and payload. These are not homemade, but manufactured by several countries around the world.
The largest ones might do as much damage as a typical IAF missle/bomb. Any one of them will make a mess of a house, car, or residential street scene.
The Katyusha is Very Inaccurate. If you land within 100 yards of your aiming point, that's good. The Soviets would launch them in the tens of thousands against the Germans.
So Hezbolla launching a few towards the IAF Base at Mnt Meron is the classic 'Hail Mary' play. Loft it up there and hope for the best. Not suprisingly, they have done little damage with these against military targets.
The bulk have been launched in the general direction of civilian population centers.
There are many interpetations of the Geneva Convention kicking around, but here is a high level view for you.
Deliberate targeting of civilians is a crime.
If you are firing at enemy combatants, and civilians are killed, that sucks, but it's war.
Using civilians as cover for military facilities or activities is a crime.
Ok, so - if Hezballa stores munitions in a house, the house is a legitimate target, even if there are women and children in it.
The fact that Hezballa is using the house like that, is a war crime.
Hezballa command bunkers are legitimate targets, even if in the middle of a city neighborhood.
Launching Katyushas at Karmiel, which has no Military bases or Industry, is highly questionable.
Bridges, airfields, electrical systems, etc, are all legitimate targets in a war. They are used by the military for transportation communication, etc.
Again, the impacts on civilians can be horrendous, but that is a fact of war, not a crime.
2) Women and Children in Jails
While Israeli Law does allow for 'Administrative Detention', inherited from the Brits, the vast majority of the women and children in Israeli Jails have been convicted of a crime in a Court of Law.
An example would be the woman who attempted to bring a suicide belt into Israel from Gaza, with the intention of detonating it in the emergency room of an Israeli Hospital.
She was caught at a check point and stopped. She is in jail, having been convicted of attempted mass murder.
The term Children is pretty loaded. It includes 17 year olds that attempted to smuggle bombs and/or weapons. It includes teenagers that attacked Israeli Solders with knives or other weapons. Again, these people where all convicted of a crime in a court of law.
Actually, an interesting phenomina (I know it's spelled wrong, sorry) is young palistinian men deliberatly getting arrested for possesion of a weapon. A 16 or 17 year old will take a kitchen knife and attempt to 'smuggle' it through a check point, with the intent of getting arrested.
Why? Israeli jails come with air conditioning, good food, TV, and access to high school and/or college education.
Since being arrested carries no stigma back home, heck it's a badge of honor, and your family gets a stipend while your in jail, it's not a bad deal in some folks minds.
The Israeli courts have ruled that people cannot be held as hostages, and ordered the release of the few who had been.
btw, administrative detention gets used as often against Jewish Right Wing activists as it does against anyone else.
>frank from austin tx wrote
>Excuse my ignorance:
>1.) What are katyusha rockets? Are they "home->made," or are they manufactured professionally?
>What is their payload? How do they compare to the >bombs that Israel is using against the Lebanese >infrastructure? What does the Geneva Accords say >about targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure?
The distinction between homemade and manufactured professionally is a meaningless one. They are manufactured in workshops, and while they are not accurate, they are deadly. Surely your question regarding rageting civilians is aimed at Hezbollah.
Also, it should be pointed out that the Palestinians have made it into an art form the use use of human shields when they launch rockets, so when Israel retaliates at those the terrorists, natural the children standing around are victims as well. Do a search of AP or AFP and you will see these photos.
>2.) I thought I heard on NPR that Hezbollah wanted >the women and children held in Israeli prisons i>ncluded in the prisoner exchange. Is this correct? >What are women and children doing in Israeli >prisons? Are the Israelis grabbing the family >members of Hezbolla leadership and holding them >hostage, or are these people actual combatants?
"In the Neveh Tirza women's prison, for example, you'll find Ahlan Tanimi, who brought the bomb that murdered 16 in the Sbarro pizza restaurant in Jerusalem. You'll also find Kahira Sa'adi, a mother of four who drove a terrorist to King George Avenue, where he blew up three people. She has expressed her eagerness to do it again."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=2&cid=1150885933425&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Another one is in jail for having lured an Israeli teenager through the internet over a long period of time to a meeting. When he showed up, he was captured by her friends, Palestinian terrorists, who pumped bullets from M-16s into him.
I'm afraid it's Billmon, et al. who are "clueless." Iran DOES, indeed, give orders to Hizbullah, as that particular terrorist organization is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Islamic regime, bought and paid for (and armed to the teeth by) the Islamic "Republic." How hard is it to believe that the mullahs would pull the strings to foment unrest, PRECISELY at the time when the international community was about to consider sanctions for Iran's nuclear ambitions? As for the notion that diplomacy and concessions will give the Israelis the peace they desire, that is fantasy. Hizbollah, Hamas, etc., etc. have only one wish with regard to Israel: that it cease to exist. To that end, they will fight when they believe it serves their purpose; dissemble and whine (and utilize the able services of as many western "useful idiots" as they can) when fighting has (temporarily) outlived its usefulness. To ignore the pathological, death-cult Jew-hatred of these psychopaths is to render all other discussion pointless. Hamas, Hizbullah and the rest are at war with Israel, the same war the Muslim world (with few, notable exceptions) has been engaged in since the very beginning of Israel's existence. And wars have rarely, if ever ended through negotiations, especially when one side remains dedicated to the utter destruction of the other. Wars end when one side is defeated, and decisively so, and comes to recognize it.
Chewing with his mouth open. Talkin' shit. Even Jethro from the Beverly Hillbillies had more class than this.
Dr. Cole, since this is a moderated forum, would you take a moment to review whether comments such as those by Joe, 9:40 AM, contribute to the discussion? Did somebody here call somebody else an antisemitic racist pig? What did Joe mean by "god's favorite people," was that a factual assertion or perhaps something he heard an Israel Prime Minister say?
The lame attempt at sarcasm in other portions of the post was clear, if significantly off the mark, but I don't understand what the other comments lend to this discussion or your forum. Are you trying to show your readers what some on the Left really think about Israel and its supporters?
Thank you for considering my questions.
The Israeli army has killed around thwo hundred and thirty Lebanese of whom twenty six have been military personnel. However all but one of these has been Lebanese soldiers who are not involved in attacking Israel. That gives the Israeli army a nine to one ratio of civilians killed vs military personnel.
Hezbollah have retailiated against the initial Isreali attacks on Lebanese civilains and regrettably killed thirteen Israeli civillians and they have also killed twelve Israeli soldiers in conventional military encounters, a civilian to military kill ratio of one to one.
I will leave it to the readers to decide if discriminately killing civilians with precision weapons is more or less moral than indiscrimintely killing them with world war two era rockets.
Shay. Think about it. Israel is not placing their military command posts in the middle of neighborhoods, families and civilians, and Hezbollah is. If you took the time to calculate ratios, I'd think you'd have figured that out.
I don't see what Shay's assessment has to do with morality. You can blame it on poor soldiering by Israel, but what's the relationship to morality?
Placing your compounds in the middle of residential neighborhoods is wrong but the victim status that Hizbollah seeks for the civilians is acheived because of Israeli tactics.
If the IDF had invaded Southern Lebanon and did house to house fighting and searching to locate, kill and disarm fighters instead of bombing a major city center they would have had more success at targeting Hezbollah but they also would have lost more lives.
The math on this is simple: Lebanese civilians are not worth as much as Isreali soldiers so they bomb away. The math on Hezbollah's side is pretty simple too Lebanese civilians are not worth as much as their political causes so they use them as human shields.
I understand the Israel wanting to get back the abducted soliders. But bombing areas with cilivians well that just nixs the reason for the destruction. For too long the US gives free passes to our Allies for the actions they take in the international community. For want exchange for our own free passes.
I have no doubt that weapons could have been supllied by Iran and Syria. However who are we to judge who to give weapons to. It's not like the U.S hasn't give plenty of weapons to groups that later turned out to bad new.. think Osama Bin Laden.
Neither Irsael, Syria, Iran or even US and England are free of blame in this situation. And it's only on the path to increasing violence.
However, what scares me the most is both Bush and Blair's lack of respect for the Kofi and United Nations. Bush feels no need to work with UN unless its the go his way. However expects other countries i.e Iran and Syria to do exactly wha tthe UN wants.
Well we should a be shaking with fear; Bush is getting what wants since he set foot in to office. Nmatter how much they hem and haw
their about their position. Next will be American troops going to assist Israel then on to Iran.. what's next north Korea.
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