Bush, Islamic Fascism and the Christians of Jounieh
Bush is on vacation, his favorite place to be during a major crisis. The August retreat is the only open admission he makes that Cheney and Rumsfeld are actually running the country, and he just doesn't need to be in his office. The only difference between his stonewalling of Lebanon and the way he let New Orleans drown is that he has put away the banjo this summer, at least in public view. He had someone tie a necktie on him and stopped manically clearing brush for long enough to come out with Condi and hold a press conference. He lied, saying that no one wants to see the violence continue. He wants to see the violence continue. Otherwise he would insist on a ceasefire. You see, if you don't have a ceasefire, the violence continues. If you oppose a ceasefire, you are saying you want the violence to continue. He does.
Then he tried to explain the war in Lebanon by saying this,
'They try to spread their jihadist message -- a message I call, it's totalitarian in nature -- Islamic radicalism, Islamic fascism, they try to spread it as well by taking the attack to those of us who love freedom. '
There are many problems with this passage.
The first is that the Israelis are not confining themselves to bombing Muslim radicals. They dropped 3000 bombs on Aitaroun in a single day. They are leveling the towns of the south altogether. They are hitting people who are not Muslim fascists.
In fact, they are hitting Christian areas such as Jounieh.



(I don't think this bridge is there any more.)
Jounieh is the sort of place that had "Oriental Dance" festivals.

It is the kind of place where they play the pop music of Lebanese singer Nancy Ajram in the nightclubs.

A videoclip is at YouTube.
Not only have the Israelis bombed out the bridges at Jounieh, destroying the local economy and harming the Christians there, but their air raid on the Jiyye oil refinery has caused an enormous ecological disaster and the ruining of the beach resorts along the coast. So much for Jounieh and its "Islamic fascists."

I guess that will show them. (The oil spill also threatens Cyprus and Turkey).
The Israelis have also bombed Ashrafiyah, a Christian area of Beirut. They have ruined Christian businesses-- restaurants, nightclubs, retail shops, by destroying bridges, roads and ports and by killing tourism for years to come.

The Syrians, about whom the Bush administration complained so bitterly for their role in Lebanon, had actually protected the Lebanese Christians from the PLO back in the 1970s and never did to them a hundredth of the damage that Israel has now done.
I don't mean to suggest that one should only worry about Lebanon's Christians, who form 40 percent of the electorate.
The Shiite Muslims of the south have been subjected to collective punishment on a mass scale. Whole towns and villages have been destroyed. Nearly a million people are displaced and homeless. The deliberate deportation or forcible transfer of a civilian population during war time is a crime against humanity, as is unnecessary expulsion of civilians from their homes.
Lebanon is a small country, with a population of only 3.8 million. A fourth of the country is homeless! That would be like a disaster that left 70 million Americans wandering around with just the shirts on their backs, living in shelters and schools, wondering where their next bite of food would come from, their homes in rubble, their lives destroyed.
In other times and places, the authorities in Jerusalem have complained about this sort of thing.
Relatively few Shiite Muslims of Lebanon are fascists of any sort. There are all kinds of Shiites. The father of the renowned entertainer Haifa Wahbi is Shiite.

A video clip is at YouTube.
Her paternal relatives now live in a place that looks like this, thanks to the Israeli air force:
Courtesy this siteLook closely at this AP photo from Monday, captioned "FLIGHT FROM TERROR: A woman runs past a destroyed building, still in flames, after it had been attacked by Israeli warplane missiles, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon yesterday." Look at the woman. This is the Shiite "Islamic fascist" that BushMert is making war on?
Then there are other problems with what Bush said. He contrasted "Islamic fascism" to "democracy," presumably a reference to the Lebanese Hizbullah.
This point is incorrect and offensive for many reasons.
It is a misuse of the word "Islamic." "Islamic" has to do with the ideals and achievements of the Muslims and the Muslim religion. Thus, we speak of Islamic art. We speak of Islamic ethics.
There can be Muslim fascists, just as there can be Christian fascists (and were, in Spain, Italy and Germany, and parts of Central and South America; the Spanish fascists and the Argentinian ones, e.g., were adopted by the United States government as close allies.)
But there cannot be "Islamic" fascists, because the Islamic religion enshrines values that are incompatible with fascism.
Fascism is not even a very good description of the ideology of most Muslim fundamentalists. Most fascism in the Middle East has been secular in character, as with Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. Fascism involves extreme nationalism and most often racism. Muslim fundamentalist movements reject the nation-state as their primary loyalty and reject race as a basis for political action or social discrimination. Fascists exalt the state above individual rights or the rule of law. Muslim fundamentalists exalt Islamic law above the utilitarian interests of the state. Fascism exalts youth and a master race above the old and the "inferior" races. Muslim fundamentalists would never speak this way. Fascism glorifies "war as an end in itself and victory as the determinant of truth and worthiness." Muslim fundamentalists view holy war as a ritual with precise conditions and laws governing its conduct. It is not considered an end in itself.
The lazy conflation of Muslim fundamentalist movements with fascism cannot account for their increasing willingness to participate in elections and serve in parliamentary government. Hizbullah, for example, ran in the 2005 elections and had 12 members elected to parliament. Altogether, the Shiite parties of Hizbullah and Amal, who have a parliamentary alliance, have 29 members in the Lebanese parliament of 128 seats. Hizbullah and Amal both joined the national unity government, receiving cabinet posts. This is not the behavior of a fascist movement tout court.
Indeed, Hizbullah has made political alliances with Christian parties, most recently with that of Michel Aoun. Opinion polls have shown that a significant proportion of Lebanese Shiites who voted for Hizbullah are more secular-minded than the party is. Hizbullah has authoritarian tendencies, but has shown itself willing to compromise and act pragmatically within the Lebanese system, and has demonstrated an ability to gain support from voters that do not share its fundamentalist ideology.
Hizbullah is a poor people's movement. It could have been moderated over time, and its adherents could have been pulled into more moderate, mainstream politics if the world had devoted itself to seeing that the Lebanese economy flourished and its government was gradually strengthened. That was the achievement of the Lebanese and regional political elite in the 1990s. If the Israelis had not aggressively occupied the Lebanese South, there would have been no Hizbullah. If the Israelis had left ten years earlier, Hizbullah would have disarmed when all the other militias did. Hizbullah could have been nurtured out of existence if Lebanon had been helped.
Now, extremism has been strengthened. Lebanon is abject, on its knees, stricken with a plague inflicted on it by Bush and Olmert. The abject, the humiliated, the impoverished do not, as Bush and Olmert fondly imagine to themselves, lie down and let the mighty walk over them. They blow up skyscrapers.
The idea that the whole Eastern Mediterranean had to be polluted, that the Christian Lebanese economy had to be destroyed for the next decade or two, that 900,000 persons had to be rendered homeless, that a whole country had to be pounded into rubble because some Lebanese Shiites voted for Hizbullah in the last election, putting 12 in parliament, is obscene. Bush's glib ignorance is destroying our world. Our children will suffer for it, and perhaps our grandchildren after them.

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45 Comments:
From the words of Olmert, it would appear that displacing the population of South Lebanon was an Israel war goal. He certainly counts this as a success. Then it is hard to argue that Israel did not deliberately target civilians to bring about this result.
Olmert:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745279.html
Quote:
Israel's offensive in Lebanon has "entirely destroyed" the infrastructure of the Hezbollah guerilla group, Olmert said Wednesday.
"I think Hezbollah has been disarmed by the military operation of Israel to a large degree," he said.
"The infrastructure of Hezbollah has been entirely destroyed. More than 700... command positions of Hezbollah were entirely wiped out by the Israeli army. All the population which is the power base of the Hezbollah in Lebanon was displaced," he said.
Prof Cole,
I've been reading your blogs whenever I can, since the Iraq invasion. Like most of the right thinking world, I'm in a state of total fury which eats away everyday because I feel powerless.
If Bush&co genuinely believes that attacking and bombing a nation liberates the people and causes them to welcome the invaders as bringers of peace, they are obviously seriously lacking in any cognative understanding. I however, don't believe that this can be true. Certainly not for the whole gang of self serving mandarins around Bush. If the latter is true and they know that attack produces the opposite affect, what is their intended purpose then? Permitting Isreal to continue it's devastating bombardment of Lebanon, as in the case of Iraq, is totally counter-productive. Even if the purpose is to secure oil production for the US market, surely a region totally anti-US and up in arms about injustices will not assist this process? I'm just bemused and befuddled at their thought processes. What is going on?
P.S. thanks for your daily updates and analysis.
Reading this post and the three that precede it I have to wonder about my fellow Americans.
The deaf, dumb, and blind know by now just what kind of regime we now have in the United States.
How can my fellow Americans not be marching on the White House AND the Capitol with pitchforks and torches?
If anyone had said at the moment of the turning of the millenium on New Year's day in 2000 that the United States would soon abrogate its Bill of Rights, invade the Iraqi nation and destroy not only its present buts its past civilization, have a gulag strung out across the world, and be arming Israel's, really, unprovoked attacks against the people in its Concentration Camp called the Gaza Strip and the people of Lebanon, "rubbling" the latter for "sport", and that the US regime would now be gearing up for aggressive war against Syria and Iran together with its far-rightwing partners in Israel, no one would have believed it.
Yet now, when all of that has come to pass, my fellow Americans stand by complacently and wait for the bombs to fall in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran.
Bush is indeed a criminal nitwit, using all his dim instincts to render the rest of Americans as ignorant as he is.
However, though "Lebanon is abject" we'd be wrong to say it is just crushed. Lebanese can still joke.
You quote Bush: 'They try to spread their jihadist message -- a message I call, it's totalitarian in nature -- Islamic radicalism, Islamic fascism, they try to spread it as well by taking the attack to those of us who love freedom.'
I find it interesting that almost anytime our current Christofacist speaks he often is telling us the bald truth--we just have to make a few substitutions. For example:
'We try to spread our message -- a message I call, it's totalitarian in nature -- Christian radicalism, Christian fascism, we try to spread it as well by taking the attack to those of us who love freedom.'
Given that the Islamic fundamentalists are a sort of latter-day back-to-the-11th-Century enthusiast, I prefer the term "Tslamic neoconservative" or "Islamic neocon"...
This whole operation seems to be in vain both because as long as there is no Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory and return of Lebanese prisoners Hezbollah will keep fighting and will have widespread support and ostensible justification for their actions (not to mention a never-ending stream of recruits), and because Israel is nominally not prepared to occupy Lebanon. Without occupying Lebanon I don't see how they can truly destroy Hezbollah.
The question I have is what impact do you think this war will have on the regional balance? Will it give Hezbollah and Iran further moral high ground and make the latter's nuclear activities and defiance more pronounced? Will it make Israel weaker and more vulnerable to attack? Perhaps al-Faisal's comments should be seen in this context, and we should expect regional players such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia to take steps to withdraw their crucial support for Israel.
If you want to see an example of fascism propoganda, check out Joe Gelman's posting on Neoconexpress for Saturday August 5, 2006.
While agreeing with your point about Israel collectively punishing even the Christian Lebanese, and also the inadequacy of the term Islamo-fascism", I have to dissent from your assertion that Hezbollah's participation in the Lebanese democratic process is not the actions of a fascist movement. Fascism - especially European fascism - has a strong history of utilizing the democratic process to first gain entry into the political arena, and then gradually expanding power. (Perhaps the best example is the German Nazis being elected to the Reichstag in the late-1920s/early-1930s, or even the elections propelling the Hungarian Arrow Cross Party into power.) So, while Hezbollah is not a fascist organization, it is not unheard of for such fascist movements to use the elections for their own benefit.
Very interesting post, though.
It is interesting that Olmert has rejected allowing the Lebanese army to take up positions in the South to act as a buffer between Hizbullah and the IDF unless Hizbullah is first disarmed.
At this point, the IDF is being fought to a standstill it seems even with 10,000 combat troops committed. The only parallel I can think of is Iwo Jima, which had a large, well armed force extremely well dug in. In that case, it required foot by foot fighting to secure territory and resulted in exremely high American casualties. I do not think the Israeli public is ready for an Iwo Jima.
Reports are that the IDF is planning on a long term occupation of the area between Shebaa Farms and the Litani River, making this a DMZ along the lines of the N.Korea/S.Korea DMZ. With Arab governments getting more and more pressure from their citizens, at what point does the Israeli push create enough pressure on them so that OPEC declares another oil embargo?
Mr. Cole makes a point that Hizbelloh partially rose about as a response to poverty. That point is well-taken. Please imagine this for a moment:
You have a family with two children. There is no food in the house. Your family has not eaten in several days. Your youngest child is very ill and has no medicine. Without the medicine, your youngest child may die. Then, suddenly, someone shows up at your doorstep with enough food and medicine to last a year. The problem is that that person is a member of Hizbelloh. People in that region support Hizbelloh, not because of any hatred for Israel, but because they enable them to survive. People do what they can to survive even if it means accepting help from terrorists. Perhaps, if Israel would outdo Hizbelloh in philanthropy, that could bring an end to Hizbelloh's reign.
But dropping bombs on innocent civilians only serves to birth terrorism. In fact, Hizbelloh was born because of the Qana massacre a decade ago. When this first started, even some Arab leaders criticised Hizbelloh. But as the country of Lebanon and areas not even known to be Hizbelloh strongholds are being laid to waste, Olmert has lost all of his Arab allies.
Currently, I see no difference between Israel and Hizbelloh.
There's a character named Osama something-Laden, rather famous I think, but I can't quite recall for what. Pop producer maybe? Golfer? Anyway, this guy said in a video lecture or something that "the events affecting his soul" started when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 with US support:
"This bombardment began and many were killed and injured and others were terrorised and displaced.
I couldn't forget those moving scenes, blood and severed limbs, women and children sprawled everywhere. Houses destroyed along with their occupants and high rises demolished over their residents, rockets raining down on our home without mercy.
The situation was like a crocodile meeting a helpless child, powerless except for his screams. Does the crocodile understand a conversation that doesn't include a weapon? And the whole world saw and heard but it didn't respond.
In those difficult moments many hard-to-describe ideas bubbled in my soul, but in the end they produced an intense feeling of rejection of tyranny, and gave birth to a strong resolve to punish the oppressors.
And as I looked at those demolished towers in Lebanon, it entered my mind that we should punish the oppressor in kind and that we should destroy towers in America in order that they taste some of what we tasted and so that they be deterred from killing our women and children.
And that day, it was confirmed to me that oppression and the intentional killing of innocent women and children is a deliberate American policy. Destruction is freedom and democracy, while resistance is terrorism and intolerance."
Ah yes, I remember now. Doesn't he host one of those Home and Garden Television shows?
Outstanding way of putting things into the modern percpective. Never have I seen an article about the Middle East so close and personal as to identify right down to the pop-culture.
I very much appreciate the discussion on "Islamic fascism."
I am an American convert to Islam and I certainly didn't convert because of fascism, which, as you said, is entirely incompatible with Islam. I converted because I believe in the beauty in this world that can persist even through profound ugliness, and because I feel it is my duty to Creation to learn and understand as much of what exists as I can.
Bush would be wise to understand that Beauty and Scholarship are core tennants of a very large number of strains of Islam, whereas emphasizing nation before God is not.
I don't support Hizbollah's fundamentalism or even Sharia (call me a liberal Qur'anic Sufi if you have to call me anything). But to say that Hizbollah has as their highest goal the creation of a fascist state rather than adherence to Islamic principles (though they may have been made extreme through poverty) won't make us safer.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Their's not to make reply,
Their's not to reason why,
Their's but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Please don't forget the corrosive, criminal assistance of Tony Blair in this situation. It seems from here in the UK,that every time Blair stands shoulder-to-shoulder with US or Israel, this act alone placates any waivering Americans and Israelis as to the inherent rightiousness of the action.
TB is considered by many abroad to be a thoughtful, intellectual man (no really, read the blogs, it is terrifying). If Blair says it is ok, then it must be.
Strangely, that schtick does not work in UK, precisely the opposite, although the Opposition is not trusted enough to have ousted him in last year's elections. In a recent UK poll, 84% of respondants thought he was utterly wrong for his stance over Israeli action.
Bush does not understand the meanings of the words he uses. To him, they are sounds of import.
We need to teach him some new sounds such as, "Resignation is better than impeachment."
Look I hate to say this but there is no point talking to Western Leaders or to the Israelis. What needs to happen is we need to get through to the American public.
The Arab world needs a new strategy.
Message to Hezbollah
Day after day the destruction goes on and all that we hear from Bush are the same old tired clichés. Beautiful Beirut has been reduced to ashes so many times. People who have done nothing but try to live from day to day are being pulverized and burned. One of the pictures of the destruction showed a man holding a dead young child in his arms. The boy had the chubby arms and dimpled elbows of a toddler. There is nothing that justifies this brutality.
"Look I hate to say this but there is no point talking to Western Leaders or to the Israelis. What needs to happen is we need to get through to the American public.
The Arab world needs a new strategy."
I agree, and Americans, true Americans who adhere to the ideals of our founding and our development, and who reject the racist bravado of Jonah Goldberg and Alan Dershowitz, also need a new strategy.
A very big problem is that our media has a knee-jerk posture regarding anything Israel does.
We need at least one powerfully dissident outlet. We need to convert one powerful outlet with the potential for integrity into the American version of the Manchester Guardian.
LA Times, Boston Globe, Air America?
We need to convict everyone associated with L'Affaire Plame, the Larry Franklin/AIPAC scandal, Abramoff et al, and we need to prosecute and alienate all the men and women who have chosen to enlist in a foreign army.
Galbraith reports that the three of them spent some time explaining to Bush that there are two different sects in Islam--to which the President allegedly responded, I thought the Iraqis were Muslims!
Raw Story
RE: "...glib ignorance is destroying our world."
Yes, of course ~ and WebSites like, "Informed Comment," if nothing else, are doing much to elighten many, dispose and dispel glib ignorance, thus.
On the other hand, you/we are here preaching to our choir of the informed, though it is true that the many links and track-backs of our comments do propagate.
to inform is important, to be sure, but it is not enough: at some point, Professor, we must form a reasonable thesis for ending ignorance and sustaining security.
"truth," alas ~ is not "persuasion."
Prof. Cole,
This is one hell of a post. Thank you.
You continue to wade through so much savagery and dismay on a daily basis to bring about some reality and perspective. Its always a priviledge to read. Keep up the hard work, these are dark times and we need voices such as yours.
As one of those Arab-Americans from South Lebanon who "doesn't look like one" I have conflicting feelings about this post. It's wonderful and heartfelt and I agree with the sentiments. At the same time, the sentiment seems to be: you're bombing Christians who wear Western clothing, don't you feel ashamed?
And I am a Christian from South Lebanon, I wear Western clothing, my American mother gave me the genes to look completely like a Westerner (when I'm not being mistaken for a Jewess). I have used a variation of the same argument in my blog posts - my family trapped outside of Sidon are Christians, anti-Hizbullah, modern, they don't deserve this. But I am profoundly uncomfortable with this argument.
And yet I see that people seem to have more sympathy for the suffering of people they can identify with. Westerners find it almost impossible to identify with people who wear head scarves or turbans.
Makes me want to wear hijab. Really. I am to read a poem at a solidarity benefit tomorrow and I am this close to wearing hijab. My Christian grandmother covered her hair, Christians were veiling BEFORE Muslims ever did (see Leila Ahmed and Fatima Mernissi).
The only reason to veil - or rather, cover my head, I wouldn't cover my face - is in solidarity, and because it shocks people. It really, really shocks people. And I want to defy someone, anyone. I completely understand why Muslim women in modern life choose to wear hijab.
Ecological disaster in Lebanon
Aljazeera reports the monstrous oil spill caused by the Israeli bombing of the Lebanese power plant at Jiyyeh. There can be no doubt that it is done quite deliberately! This ecological disaster can even equal the greatest oil spill in human history - Exxon Valdez oil spill. Current oil leak is 12K tons while the Alaskan one in 1989 was 37K tons. Damage from that disaster was estimated at $5B.
Ran HaCohen, a university professor in Israel, has long been a keen observer of current middle east crises, especially those involving Israel.
His latest on the UNSC resolution is a must read I only hope against hope that the Arab League stands firm with the people of Lebanon.
The UN Security Council resolution draft on Lebanon reflects a new stage of Western colonialism in the Middle East, and perhaps a historic precedent: for the first time, the UN Security Council – should the resolution draft be endorsed – breaches the fundamental principle of the right of people under occupation to resist, and in fact legitimizes the violent partition of the sovereign state of Lebanon.....
Lebanon's sovereignty has always been challenged. France and Great Britain did not end their colonialism until after WWII. Syria considered Lebanon one of its provinces. Israel's first leader, David Ben-Gurion, believed the natural border of the Jewish state should be Lebanon's Litani River, and this legacy has apparently guided the Israeli army ever since....
This immediate, interim phase should end when a new UN-mandated international force is formed and deployed to Lebanon. This seems to be the American concession to France. In order to win the past colonizer's consent, the U.S. offered France a military foothold in the form of an international force that would consist mainly of French troops. The French, however, have been fooled: having betrayed Lebanon for the sweet smell of a colonial foothold, they will get none....
The End of Lebanon?
Ran HaCohen
While the outcome is the same, I don't agree that Bush's ignorance is the determining factor. He is completely indifferent to anyone's suffering but his own, so there is no rein on his megalomaniacal or political schemes; where others might feel shame or regret, he just feels a toddler's pride in the shit mural he's smeared on the wall. It's his masterpiece, and no one can tell him any different - least of all the poor schmucks who'll have to clean it up.
Hi Juan,
Funny how Bush and his friends speak of a "Franco-American resolution.”
Frankly, the UN resolution they’re cooking in New York is far more American (>90%+) than say “French” (less than 9.99%) or Botswana-ean.
A relatively easy way to gauge the ideological/linguistic origin of any (draft) UN resolution is simply to count the number of “Gallicisms” and other “Latinisms”: and (unlike say varied UN resolutions on topics such as Bosnia, Sudan…etc.) there are very few of these semantic indicators in the Neocon-engineered text currently being discussed in New York- a draft to which an ailing Chirac probably only gave his ex-post blessings…
Why you may ask?
Why would France abdicate (what’s left of her dwindling) influence in the last remnant of its former MENA empire (North Africa was lost long time ago to a conglomerate bringing together Exxon, Chevron, Boeing and the Pentagon)?
The answer is quite straightforward: K.S.A., Iran’s real archenemy- as opposed to fake foes such as Israel, Pakistan and Botswana!
With the barrel of oil at $ 85., the French (and most government on the face of the earth for that materialistic matter) would sell their daughters to the power-hungry princes of Riyadh.
And the “moderate” [??] Saudi rulers and their pliable “pro-Western” Haririst friends in power in Beirut want Hezbollah crushed at any price.
The spoiled 'rentiers' kids of Arabia are used to be surrounded by cohorts of slaves who always do their bidding: Lebanese cooks, British engineers, Pakistani chauffeurs, Moroccan escort girls…etc.
That’s why the Saudis sincerely thought President Bushmert would be happy to satisfy their monarchic good pleasure and flush out “pro-Iranian” scum from the royal playgrounds of Beirut and the Casino du Liban!
Problem is that, in real life (i.e. outside of Arabia’s air-conditioned palaces), no one will do a dirty and expensive job on your behalf for free… Just like the Faustian characters of old, the decadent desert princes are starting to freak out, for Bushmert has come to ask for the price of his services: the soul of Saud.
This is the only part of your post I disagree with:
"The idea that the whole Eastern Mediterranean had to be polluted, that the Christian Lebanese economy had to be destroyed for the next decade or two, that 900,000 persons had to be rendered homeless, that a whole country had to be pounded into rubble because some Lebanese Shiites voted for Hizbullah in the last election, putting 12 in parliament, is obscene."
It's not obscene; it's mistaken. I would bet anything that Bush has no idea that Hizbullah has 12 members in the Lebanese parliament.
You said: "The abject, the humiliated, the impoverished do not, as Bush and Olmert fondly imagine to themselves, lie down and let the mighty walk over them. They blow up skyscrapers."
Patrick McGreevy said: "If crushing people will make them capitulate, the people of Gaza would long ago have become docile rather than defiant."
I couldn't agree more. But I'd like to be better equipped to argue this case to someone who insists on using post-WWII Germany and Japan as examples of the contrary. Any ideas?
Excellent post, let us hold out hope for better days.
Although it may take a generation of pain for it to sink home, I suspect that the simple essence of the problem is that President Bush is not on our side.
Mr. Cole - thank you for your continued coverage.
I sketched out a predictive analysis a year and a half ago that may fill in some gaps.
Much of the rough scenario I sketched out in Metafuture: Iran, Iraq, and Permanent War ( posted at the Daily Kos January 30, 2005 ) now coming appears to be in motion.
One of my significant predictive failures in the piece was that I envisioned the bombing of Iran - by the US, Israel, or both - triggering Hizzbollah attacks on the US or US interests. In fact, the hammer blow first has fallen on Hezzbollah, and we may yet see terrorist acts ( beyond those directed at Israel ) in retaliation but we have not seen those yet.
So, I was incorrect in detailing the likely lead up to a US attack or even invasion of Iran. But Iran reamains very much the target. Here is a bit from “Metafuture…..” :
“SO : fobbing the disaster of Iraq* onto a crippled “democratic” Iraqi government ( except for the oilfields and refineries, of course ) or - if things spiral out of hand - implementing the “Cheney Plan” - to partition Iraq ( as reported by STRATFOR, 2002 ) : both free up resources against…Iran.
Cheney’s lidless eye now turns to Tehran, and to wider regional conflict : all according to plan.
Game out action and reaction in your mind with recognition of the following factors and possible aims :
Dominionists, Armageddonists, and NeoCons : Iran as escalation gambit to pull in Israel and Hezzbollah : PNAC project of widening the Mideast theatre of conflict to Iran, Syria, perhaps Saudi Arabia, eventually Pakistan and North Korea : serendipity of destruction - The political utility to the NeoCons and the US Christian Right of provoking terrorist strikes on the mainland US.
Remember this - escalation is in the air....”
Note 1 : the "Cheney Plan" I mention is very significant part and has been almost wholly overlooked.
Note 2 : "Metafuture...." has a typo in the text. I wrote "partitioning Iran..." - the text should read "partitioning Iraq"
Note 3 : The "Cheney Plan" has been floated numerous times in the media - in analyses and op-eds - since STRATFOR reported on the alleged plan in 2002.
there are a few explenations that come to mind...
both the german and the japanese people were well aware that their leaderships had started massive wars of aggression. the palestinians never did anything to anybody, same goes for the lebanese or even the iraqis. those people are innocent victims of aggression.
in germany the legitimacy of the regime died with hitler. there had been a coup attemped by the german military before and about a dozen times that the military itself tried to assasinate hitler. most people saw no point in continueing the war, the revelation of the massive crimes the regime did commit (gas-chambers, etc.) destroyed it forever. not a shot was fired after the capitulation.
the palestinians, the lebanese are in a completely different situation. they have been attacked and their land is being stolen. of course they fight back, who wouldn't in their place?
Professor Cole, thank you for your post and systematic analysis of why Bush's approach is so flawed. As a Muslim American, I am especially horrified at his continued linkage of his war to Islam and Muslims...it seems as though he has been including terms like "Islamic Fascism" much more often in his rhetoric, and then wonders why his popularity is so low among Muslims in his own country, and around the world.
Now, extremism has been strengthened. Lebanon is abject, on its knees, stricken with a plague inflicted on it by Bush and Olmert. The abject, the humiliated, the impoverished do not, as Bush and Olmert fondly imagine to themselves, lie down and let the mighty walk over them. They blow up skyscrapers.
You know, there's a lot bandied about of the "Lessons of 9/11". What I quoted above was the real lesson I learned. It seems that many others, influenced by neocon thinking and GOPTV, decided that 9/11 taught us we needed to oppress and destroy more.
Keep at eye out for that phrase ("Lessons of 9/11") and make sure to mention this one.
Israel and her water wars
Israel needs water and this whole exercise is intended secure the Litani river
Once they have secured the river they can divert it to Israel possibly through a tunnel.
It is time to rebuild Atlantis in the Bay of Bengal
As always, Thank You Professor Cole
Prof. Cole,
Thank you for your wonderful article , I am an Egyptian Arabic blogger and really glad to find some voices in the west that speak the truth
As an Arab I tell you sir that what is happening in Lebanon is driving people in the Arab world to point with no return in anger from both their regimes and the United States .
I won't speak about the educated people , but the simple people my maid told me today morning that we "in Egypt" would be next .
Hezbollah popularity reached to the top
in my country, Hassan Nasrallah posters are put beside che Guevra
Sir Democracy doesn't come with tanks and bombs , Lebanon is the most democratic country in the Arab world , it doesn't need someone to liberate it
I won't say more except Thank you again
The more important reason why the Germany and Japan analogies are unsuitable is that there is no "Soviet Union".
The West Germans and the Japanese couldn't possibly turn against the Anglo-Americans post-war, without throwing themselves into Stalin's jaws.
Professor Cole,
As a Lebanese woman living in Canada having witnessed and experienced the civil war in Lebanon and having returned to Lebanon last year to show the country to my husband and children, the family I was able to have and who helped me heal the youthful internal wounds of the civil war, I thank you for this post and I hope it will contribute to awaken the public opinion in the US to the plight of Lebanese and Arabs who live a cruel opression imposed upon them by Israel and US's policies in the region !
When is enough going to be enough? For Gods sake people, WAKE UP, WAKE UP!!! When did the Lebanese ever do us harm?, Oh you say there are groups within that country that are harmful, hell, we have groups of people here in this country that are harmful, as there are harmful groups in all countries throughout the world.
America is FAST becomming a hated country by other nations. I just hope that people in other countries don't view all Americans as war mongrels.Why is it that Israel can have nuclear weapons, and countries like Iran can't develope nuclear engery? If this government would quit backing Israel, or it least be even handed, I don't believe we would be experiencing the problems we have today.I'm so tired of hearing about the holocaust by Jewish groups. You want to talk about a massacre, then talk about what the white man did to my ancestors. The white man has NEVER kept any of their promisees made to the Indian tribes.When my eye's see the images of the suffering caused by the inhumane acts perpettated by Israel, I just want to drop to my knees and cry. Evil has decended upon the minds of the wicked, Shame on them.
All that is being asked is to be fair to all concerned, nothing more, nothing less. Tell us, what is so difficult about doing that simple thing!
Hearts and souls are being scared, wounds are cutting deep into the psyche and the sprit of man is darkening in this day of spritual inlightment.
As someone who originates from the very place where the events in discussion are taking place, it comes as a great relief to me to see the people of the west doing their own research and trying to find out more than what Fox news and CNN tell them. I applaud professor Cole and hope that more people of his caliber start emerging from anonimity to make the western world see the real truth.
Despite coming from a Shi'ite muslim family, I was, for quite a long time, an atheist. I used to argue a lot with muslim clerics who tried to convince me of their teachings, untill one day, a shi'ite cleric said to me "The way I will prove to you the greatness of Islam is not by asking you to believe whatever I tell you, but by asking not to believe a single word I say, and then go research it for yourself and try to prove me wrong". I did what he said, I have been a shi'ite muslim for a few years now.
That little story was not religious preaching. I felt like sharing that experience with everyone here because I found the method, in which that cleric taught me things, to be applicable to any righteous cause. If the cause is flawed, then you can prove whoever you're arguing with wrong with some research, but if their cause if flawless, then you cannot possibly prove them wrong, and in that case, you yourself will sumbmit to it being the absolute truth.
I've seen many posts discussing Israeli and American politics, as well as Hezbollah and Iran. Despite the fact that many of the people posting here, including Professor Cole himself, there still are misconceptions that desperately need mending.
The first of these misconceptions is the rhetoric saying "alright, so Hezbollah is a terrorist organization because Israel is killing people".
Does anyone on this blog personally know a member of Hezbollah? has any of you lived in southern lebanon and seen what it's like there ? Has any of you asked a pro-Hizbollah civillian from south Lebanon why they like Hezbollah?
One of the most outrrageous comments came from "Patr1000": "People do what they can to survive even if it means accepting help from terrorists. Perhaps, if Israel would outdo Hizbelloh in philanthropy, that could bring an end to Hizbelloh's reign".
Where do these people come up with these ideas? The south Lebanese are not beggars who take money from whoever offers it. I urge everyone here to research the governmental system in Lebanon to truly understand why the Shi'ites there are this loyal to Hezbollah.
Lebanon has a "confessional" electorial system. This means that the lebanese are allowed representation in the parliament according to what religion they belong to.
Lebanon having been occupied by the French, has a constitution based on the French constitution of the first republic. The French favored the Maronites in lebanon (an group of christians who fled Syria in the past century and moved to lebanon starting their own sect of Christianity)because they were, like them, Christian. The French gave the Maronites nearly unlimited power in Lebanon, making the country technically theirs.
Back then, the Shi'ites were a mainly rural people. They lived in villages and did mostly farm work on land owned by Christian, Druze, and Sunni (of Seljuk/Ottoman descent)feudal land owners who considered Shi'ites to be inferior beings incapable of developing intellect or a capacity for civillization. I can liken the Shi'ites in Lebanon back then to the slaves on cotton plantations in pre-Lincoln USA. Their white "owners" regarded them as an inferior race born to serve their masters.
Based on that, Shi'ites were disregarded in Lebanon. Since the Maronites were given near complete power over the country, all the benefits that a government could offer its people from schools and parks and universities and infrastructure and wealth, went to Christian areas, not because the maronite government liked the Catholics and Orthodox and believers in other Christian sects, but simply because Maronites inhabited those areas as well.
The Shi'ites were left with no electricity, no running water, nothing. Their areas were slums, and noone cared because they were seen as undeserving peasants.
In 1948, when "The State of Israel" was announced by David Ben-Gurion, the jewish settlers had kicked hundreds of thousands of palestineans into southern Lebanon (which borders Israel's northern border) after stealing their land, demolishing their houses, and burning their crops and orchards. They also took over land belonging to south Lebanon and kicked its inhabitants out in the same fashion as they did the Palestineans (known as the Arabs of '84). Israel then made it a point to keep harassing these villagers in hopes to permanently move them out of their land, thereby taking control of Lebanese land up to the Litani river, which the Israelis had their eyes on since they arrived to the region.
The palestineans which had been kicked into Lebanon were a burden to the villagers, competing with them for resources which had always been theirs. They fought these palestineans at first, and when Israel decided to form a proxy militia to fight the Palestineans in south Lebanon in 1973 (now operating as the PLO), many southern Lebanese helped them and joined this force (the Saad Haddad militia). in 1978 Israel invaded for the first time in order to drive the PLO out of Lebanon. This Israeli military offensive forced an estimated 285,000 people to become refugees, with over 6,000 homes destroyed or badly damaged. Between 1,100 and 2,000 Lebanese civilians were killed. Twenty Israeli soldiers died, and an unknown number of Palestinian fighters. The PLO forces retreated ahead of the Israelis and continued their attacks on Israel.
Israel invaded again in 1982 encouraged by then Maronite Leader Bashir Gemayel who they had groomed to become the new president of Lebanon (notice the democracy, Israel was putting a LEBANESE president in office).
On june 6, 1982, Operation Peace in Galilee commenced.Israel began its 1982 offensive into Lebanon in response to two specific terrorist acts; the bombing of a bus in northern Israel, and the assassination attempt on the life of Israel's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Shlomo Argov. Calling this invasion "Operation Peace in Galilee," (Galillee is the biblical name for northern Israel), Israel invaded Lebanon up to the outskirts of the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
Notice, both reasons for the invasion had NOTHING to do with Lebanon, they both occurred outside Lebanese territory and were carried out by non-Lebanese individuals.
They said they were invading to "liberate Lebanon" from the palestineans (a problem which they themselves had created when they pushed all those palestineans into Lebanon), the reality was that the PLO was staging attacks on the jewish settlements in nothern Palestine, now forcibly called northern Israel.
Whatever the motive was, the Israelis said their fight was with the Palestineans, but they spared no one. Their 1982 invasion killed thousands of Lebanese. They saw it to be a tedious process to find Arafat and neutralize him, so they bombarded Beirut day and night, destroying everything in their way untill Arafat left to Cyprus, then Tunisia. Israel withdrew from the capital, but maintained a "security zone" of several kilometres from its northern borders under direct occupation with the aid of its proxy militia, the "South Lebanon Army" untill it was forced to withdraw by Hezbollah in 2000.
Lebanon was never a contributing party in this conflict, yet Israel felt free to invade Lebanon at will, kill, maim, displace innocent civillians, and destroy their homes and their livelihoods.
It is THESE injustices that gave reason to the rise of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not group of wack jobs in turbans who exist to harm others. Hezbollah are the people. They are the sons of those southern Lebanese Shi'ite farmers who's houses were demolished, daughters raped, land burned, and livelihoods destroyed by the Israeli army since 1984 up untill 2000. Hezbollah is not some alien force "holding Lebanon hostage" as Israeli propaganda tells the world. They are the salt of the earth. They are just normal people like you and me, who couldn't bear to see their parents beaten and sisters raped infront of them and be thrown in Israeli prisons and tortured to kingdom come if they tried to stop it.
Leila's post hit the nail right on the head. People in the west cannot relate to men in turbans and women in head scarves. That's why many cannot understand Hezbollah's cause. Maybe if Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah spoke English then our strife would be more understood. The fact is, they are people, just like every one of you. I was particularly moved by Richard Bastian's post. I understood he was from Indian descent, and Im sure that if you researched the massacres that befell his people, hundreds of years ago for no other reason than that they simply existed, you would be able to understand Hezbollah more closely.
I am a Shi'ite from south Lebanon. I have seen what the Israelis have done to my people. I have also spent time with many members of Hezbollah and have found them to be nothing like they are portrayed in the west. To those people fearing "Hezbollah attacks on American interests outside Lebanon" I say read more on Hezbollah from books and websites not published by AIPAC or Fox. You will find out that Hezbollah does not operate outside Lebanese territory because their doctrine stresses on protecting LEBANESE soil from agressors. They are not Al Qa'eda, they do not kill indiscriminantly. Israel, however, when attempting to assassinate Hezbollah officials, blast the entire area with disregard to wether the official's wife or children are with him. Hezbollah has NEVER instigated violence in the area. They never act, their every military action is always in reality a reaction to an preceding Israeli aggression that you are not allowed to hear about so as to think that Hezbollah exist to slaughter the poor israelis.
Concerning Iran, can anyone tell me why everyone hates Iran? What have the Iranians ever done to hurt anyone? Think about it...
I join Richard Bastian and say WAKE UP. Stop letting them tell you what to think and believe.
To "Radikalist Revelations"
You should read history before you make comments.
You say maronites fled syria a century ago and they formed allies with France.
A group of christians (maronites) fled Syria in the 4th Century. They settled in the mountains. When Islam invaded the Levant 400 years later people from the coastal areas took refuge with these people, people like pagans/phoenicians and overtime these people became maronites, the ones that did not convert to Christianity converted to Islam.
If Christians have half share in power over the politics of the country so-be-it, They have been there longer than anyone else. Half would be considered lucky for some muslim extremeist groups.
France had connections with these people long before 1920...Christians in lebanon sheltered the french during the crusades. In fact, the French were utterely suprised to find christians still in existence in a sea of islam.
The Christians have always tolerated their muslim brothers, christians and muslims live side by in lebanon and the country is half of theirs too...There are however, some muslim groups that wish Lebanon was a fundamentalist islamic state...These comments are as absurd as a group of chrisitans going into mecca and saying...i wont rest until this place is covered with churches.
As for Israel, they have always been jealous of Lebanon, the beauty of the country far exceeds that of israel, this jealousy goes right back to ancient times when phoenicia and its people of the cities Tyre and Sidon controlled everything in the mediterranean.
If anything all this war has done for israel is created new enemies, the muslims already hate them, and now too the christians.
"Permitting Isreal to continue it's devastating bombardment of Lebanon, as in the case of Iraq, is totally counter-productive. Even if the purpose is to secure oil production for the US market, surely a region totally anti-US and up in arms about injustices will not assist this process? ...What is going on?"
Here's my theory Taiwanesekid: GEORGE W. BUSH is the one who is REALLY making the decisions. We refuse to believe it's not Cheney and Rumsfeld - but suppose "the decider" is actually deciding? It's the only explanation for the simple-minded policies of the US gov.
I agree with almost everything you have written, Professor Cole, both here and elsewhere. But I have some misgivings about the final sentence of this article.
I think it's quite clear that not only our children will suffer, but so will our grandchildren, and their grandchildren too. The horrible effects of this catastrophe will surely last longer than one generation.
Maybe you thought that yourself but didn't want to come right out and say so. Well, that's ok. I've said it for you.
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