Hizbullah Rejects Syrian Position
Lebanese Army Begins reaching South
DPA/ al-Zaman report that [Ar.] in Beirut, Hizbullah declined to adopt the position of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad in accusing the reformist politicians of standing against Hizbullah and the resistance in Lebanon. (Bashar has a feud with the 14 March group, but Hizbullah joined it in a national unity government.) Husayn al-Hajj Hasan, a Hizbullah member of parliament said, "we reject the idea of considering the 14 March group to be agents of Israel and America."
In an emotional speech in Beirut Thursday morning, shown on LBC, Saad Hariri said that the 33-day long Israeli campaign against Lebanon had inflicted profound damage on the country. He went on to say that it was painful to find a sibling Arab leader adding insult to injury by instigating division and infighting among Lebanese. Hariri was referring to Tuesday's speech by Bashar al-Asad of Syria in which he accused Hariri and other members of his coalition of being agents of foreign powers and urged Hizbullah to stand up to them. Hariri said that Lebanon had seen nothing from Syria but hatred, hypocrisy and lies. He accused Syria of trading for its own advantage on the blood of Arab children at Qana, in Gaza and in Baghdad. He said he sympathized with the suffering masses of Syria who labored under a tyrannical regime that denied them the possibility of free elections. He reminded Damascus that steadfastness in the face of Israeli attacks was a famed Lebanese product, stemming from Lebanese national unity. (Asad had said that the 14 March group was a product of Israel.)
Pretty much all the major Lebanese politicians of all sects and tendencies condemned Asad's remarks [Ar.], characterizing them as an attempt by an external power to take advantage of Lebanon's successful weathering of the Israeli attack to achieve Syrian goals in Lebanon.
Some 2000 Lebanese troops began deploying on Wednesday and Thursday in the Lebanese South. Altogether 15,000 would be sent.
According to LBC satellite news, most Israeli troops have withdrawn from Lebanon, except for some villages right on the border between the two countries.
The deployment of Lebanese troops to the south for the first time in decades is a matter of national pride to the Lebanese, who are unbowed by a month of savage Israeli bombardment of their national infrastructure and destruction of entire villages.
The main Lebanese players, both the reform government and Hizbullah spokesmen, appear convinced that a conflict between the state and the party-militia in the south can be avoided. Lebanese suffered through civil war 1975-1989 (and beyond a bit) and are determined not to risk a return to that horrible era. The Daily Star suggests that this is because a compromise is in the works, whereby Hizbullah won't actually be disarmed, but will have to keep its arms out of sight south of the Litani River near Israel.
Armageddon in Khiam: Shiite Lebanese returning to towns and villages in the south are finding them completely flattened.
The Israeli pilots engaged in massive collective punishment and the deliberate targetting of civilian populations for displacement, which is a war crime in international law.
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/17/2006 12:32:00 AM
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The coming days will be crucial to judge how far the Israeli/US have lost this war, especially the negotiations taking place for the constitution of its mandate. From what I've heard/read in French media :
1) The French have refused to take the head of a mission who would have to disarm Hezbollah.
2) It also comes clearly out that this force is there only in order to controll the cease-fire, not in order to impose peace; aka, they won't fight against the Hezbollah, whether they give their arms in or not(this is apparently the difference between Art. VI and Art. VII who would have allowed the use of arms to impose peace).
3) The several countries supposed to provide troops aren't in a great hast to do so. They fear for their forces and have made clear that they don't want to go there to fight and disarm the Hezbollah, only to control the cease-fire.
4) Whatever stands in the resolution due to Bolton/US, those on the ground will have the last say about how this force will be implemented and I doubt that the US/Israeli will get what they wanted. There won't be any disarming of Hezbollah.
5) The Lebanese army is already leading South and will take place beyond the Litani. Second the French, they will be the ones in charge of disarming the Hezbollah.. or in charge to find and an agreement with the Hezbollah.
6) Because the Lebanese army doens't have the force to confront Hezbollah, so they are condemned to an agreement.
7) From what you writes, this agreement is on a good track.
8) It comes out clearer and clearer that the Israeli have lost this war. The UN resolution only spared them a shamefull withdrawal. But they will bear the shame of the useless and pointless destructions they have caused to Lebanon and of their war crimes against civilians.
9) Now let's just hope that the hawkish Israeli/US leaders won't try to use the fact that the Hezbollah doesn't disarm in order to attack the Iran/Syrian axe. They may try something desperate in the hope of cancelling this defeat and prevent one in the US october elections.
Frankly for the young Hariri (which is by the way his only qualification and achievement) to state that " the Syrian president's attack on Lebanese politicians is worse than the destruction wreaked by Israel " is a political harikiri in style.
I am more than confident that the Lebanese appreciate that he equates death and destruction to a verbal jab on mostly ineffective and broadly corrupt politicians.
Remember, "collective punishment" was the Nazi policy of holding entire communities responsible for the resistance of anyone in the community by indiscriminate and random killing of its members. The Israeli government did this to the entire nation of Lebanon. This is a government of Nazis of a new kind, Israeli Nazis. The Israeli government has dishonored the holocaust, the worst horror brought down on Jews during their entire history. This is vast betrayal of the Jews and of Jewish history. Never confuse the Israelis with the Jews.
The claim that Arab media is "saudi controlled" and that in the "street" Bashar is looking like a new Nasser at Josh Landis:
"Bashar's FOur Messages" by Fahdi
The Hizbullah criticism of Asad's attack on the 3.14 group seems to me evidence that the group is not a pawn of Syria; that it is moving deciseively and pragmatically to consolidate its gains among the Lebanese, and that Asad has hit a nerve in the Arab street.
I have wondered what was the actual experience of Israeli infantry as they came up against Hezbollah's well-entrenched fighters with hi-tech equipment that apparently even the Lebanese military didn't know Hezbollah had. This is one very frank description by an Israeli reservist to friends or relatives who describes his own harrowing experience, and the death of 14 Israeli soldiers. It is published on an Israeli web-site with blog comments from Israeli supporters, but it's not my intent to lionize the Israeli's:
http://blogcentral.jpost.com/newsItems/viewFullItem$1183
Also an Israeli web-site debka.com which practiced self-censorship during the conflict published these comments from Israeli soldiers:
- The rear command did not know what was going on in the field.
- Some of their orders were suicidal. There were cases of officers and men agreeing to ignore such orders.
- Some of the tanks were ten years old and were confronted with an enemy armed with the most sophisticated, up-to-date equipment.
- Our training prior to being sent into battle was not adapted to the conditions we found in Lebanon.
- Their officers called Hezbollah fighters terrorists or even primitive. This was a misleading misnomer. They are highly-trained, professional soldiers.
- Although we were better, Hezbollah fought like lions.
- We had no food or water.
- Our entry into battle in Lebanon was belated.
- The troops were short of accurate intelligence.
- We were not prepared for combat against camouflaged bunkers.
- We had no information on the Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile techniques.
"Husayn al-Hajj Hasan, a Hizbullah member of parliament said, 'we reject the idea of considering the 14 March group to be agents of Israel and America.'"
Sheikh Nasrallah's been listening to Michael Corleone: "Keep your friends close but your enemies closer."
Juan comments:
"The deployment of Lebanese troops to the south for the first time in decades is a matter of national pride to the Lebanese, who are unbowed by a month of savage Israeli bombardment of their national infrastructure and destruction of entire villages."
The reason for Lebanese pride is because they plan to no longer be dictated to by Hizballah. Israel's surgical bombardment lasted a few weeks. Hizballah's domination of the South is what has lasted decades. With Hizballah's hopeful demise (admittedly not very hopeful) maybe the Lebanese and the Israelis will no longer have to live in fear of Hizballah terrorism.
as Lebanon and the West fret over who and when and what kind of ground-troops to deploy as a de facto "Lebanese Defense Force," and what their "mission" and "rules of engagement" shall be ~ it occurs to this writer that the greatest threat facing Lebanon is not ground assault but aerial bombardment.
To be sure, one of the many purely military lessons learned from this recent conflict is that a highly motivated, well-entrenched network of otherwise irregular guerrillas, equipped with sophisticated anti-armour weapons ~ can defend if not destroy outright on the battle plane a modern military machine bent on Blitzkrieg and occupation...
...but Hezbollah was entirely unsuccessful in the third dimension, the Lebanese air-space; leaving themselves and their nation's cities and towns at the mercy of ruthless, if not rational, Dumb War with Smart Weapons.
To that end, for the Western powers in general, and Lebanon in particular ~ deployment of an effective Air Defense System would serve all to deter, at best, or destroy, if necessary, this greatest threat to population centres in the region: surrounded, as they are by un-savoury neighbours; the Theocracy of ISRAEL being, by historical precedent ~ the most likely serial killers by use of Air Power.
Without Air Power / support, and the key to defeat conventional Armoured Assault by un-conventional means now well-known ~ and short of MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction via nuclear weapons, which, eg., IRAN appears hell-bent to achieve ~ neither ISRAEL nor anyone else in their right mind would ever again be so bold as to betray a de facto LEBANESE NO-FLY: no War no way, Jose ZONE.
My only quarrel with Bill Lind's assessment is timing. I think Nasrallah will continue to consolidate his domestic position for a while. But then, I have an advantage. Lind wrote his article on Monday.
Beat!
By William S. Lind
With today’s cease-fire in Lebanon, the second Hezbollah-Israeli War is temporarily in remission. So far, Israel has been beaten.
The magnitude of the defeat is considerable. Israel appears to have lost at every level—strategic, operational and tactical....
But these failures only begin to measure the magnitude of Israel’s defeat. While Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, is now an Islamic hero, Olmert has become a boiled brisket in the piranha pool that is Israeli politics. The cease-fire in Lebanon will allow camera crews to broadcast the extent of the destruction to the world, with further damage to Israel’s image. Israel’s “wall” strategy for dealing with the Palestinians has been undone; Hamas rockets can fly over a wall as easily as Hezbollah rockets have flown over Israel’s northern border.
Most importantly, an Islamic Fourth Generation entity, Hezbollah, will now point the way throughout the Arab and larger Islamic world to a future in which Israel can be defeated. That will have vast ramifications, and not for Israel alone. Hundreds of millions of Moslems will believe that the same Fourth Generation war that defeated hated Israel can beat equally-hated America, its “coalitions” and its allied Arab and Moslem regimes. Future events seem more likely to confirm that belief than to undermine it....
For America, the question is whether Washington will continue to demand that we go down with the Israeli ship.
Many commentators on the views media are routinely talking about the French demands to clarify the Rules of Engagement for the International Force in South Lebanon in the context of the French having to defend themselves against Hizbollah – No one seems to understand that the vast majority of attacks on international troops (UNIFIL) in South Lebanon in the last 20 years have been carried out by Israel… In effect, the international force members need clarification on whether they can fire back on the Israelis to defend themselves – and they are not going to get that authority in the UN Security Council from the US.
Meanwhile, it looks like the Hizbollah are going to be hold on to their weapons… As readers might remember, I had predicted earlier that Hizbollah might be fused into the Lebanese Army if pressure mounts on the Lebanese government to disarm them – In fact, this very measure was suggested by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt today… However, according to latest news reports, it looks like Hizbollah will be allowed to keep their weapons as long as they don’t display them in public.
That is another major blow to Israeli aims… Not only will Hizbollah fighters get to stay in South Lebanon, where many of them live with their families, they will also have their missiles and anti-tank rockets tucked safely in the very same hiding places that Israel could not find in this 33-day war… And if provoked, they will be able to scoot down to the weapons caches and fire missiles at Israel again.
Some Israel supporters may take comfort in the idea that Hizbollah will no longer be able to hang around with their assault weapons in the streets – but that is a profound misunderstanding of the reality of South Lebanon… For one, almost every Lebanese household I know, from Beirut to the Israeli border has an assault rifle (if not more) tucked away in cabinets… The M-16 and the Kalashnikov are the favorite assault rifles by far, and adorn the homes of all the Lebanese men who are “disarmed” militia members.
The Hizbollah rarely carry weapons in public anyway… In my four visits to South Lebanon (1999, 2000, 2001, 2003) I have NEVER seen an armed Hizbollah fighter out in the streets, not even at the Fatima Gate when Israeli troops are being stoned by children and tensions run high.
Contrary to pop opinion, Hizbollah does NOT man check points or garrisons in South Lebanon… In fact, in all my trips to South Lebanon I have always needed to carry special permission from the Lebanese Mukhabarat in order to pass the Lebanese Army checkpoints in South Lebanon… It is the Lebanese Army that has an open armed presence in South Lebanon, though in small numbers and mostly to discourage foreigners, especially Palestinians, from approaching the border with Israel… There is also a Lebanese customs force that mans check points along the border to curb smuggling… It is at one such check point that I was held up for 45 minutes by Lebanese soldiers while Hizbollah fired antiquated anti-aircraft rounds at high-flying Israeli aircraft from behind a hill.
Anyway, it seems that Hizbollah has managed to stay assimilated and retain its weapons, and the Israelis have lost a major element of their war plan.
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