Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, August 25, 2006

Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors

Here is what the professionals are saying about the Republican-dominated Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy report on Iran that slams US intelligence professionals for poor intelligence on Iran: The report demonstrates that these Republicans have poor intelligence . . . on Iran. What follows is summaries of things I've seen from other experts but I can't identify them without permission.

This is the PDF file of the report.

First of all, former CIA professional Larry Johnson and Jim Marcinkowski point out that the Republicans have a lot of damn gall. It was high members of this Republican administration who leaked to the Iranians and the whole world the name of Valerie Plame, an undercover CIA operative who spent her professional career combatting the proliferation of WMD and was, at the time she was betrayed by Traitor Rove and his merry band, working on Iran. Had it not been for these Republican figures, none of whom has yet been punished in any way for endangering US national security, we might know more about Iran.

It is being said that the staffer who headed the report is Frederick Fleitz, who was a special assistant to John Bolton when Bolton was undersecretary of state for proliferation issues. Fleitz was sent to the unemployment line when Condi wisely exiled Bolton to the United Nations, where there is a long history of ill-tempered despots who like to bang their shoes on the podium. So this report is the long arm of Bolton popping up in Congress. It is Neoconservative propaganda.

I repeat what I have said before, which is that John Bolton is just an ill-tempered lawyer who has no special expertise in nuclear issues or in Iran, and aside from an ability to scare the bejesus out of young gophers who bring him coffee and to thunderously denounce on cue any world leader on whom he is sicced, he has no particular qualifications for his job.

Nor do the Republican congressmen know anything special about Iran's nuclear energy program. They certainly know much less than the CIA agents who work on it full time, some of whom know Persian and have actually done, like, you know . . . intelligence work.

We are beset by instant experts on contemporary Iran, like the medievalist Bernard Lewis, who wrongly predicted that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would attack Israel on August 22, based on Lewis's weird interpretation of his alleged millenarian beliefs. Once the Neoconservatives went so far as actually to make fun of reality in the hearing of a reporter, their game was up.

Pete Hoekstra, who is the chair of this committee, has a long history of saying things that are, well, disconnected to reality. Like when he made a big deal about some old shells with mustard gas found in Iraq left over from the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, and claimed that these were the fabled and long-sought Iraqi WMD over which 2600 of our service people are six feet under and another 8000 in wheelchairs. Nope.

Bolton at one point was exercised about an imaginary Cuban biological weapons program, which even his own staffers wouldn't support him on, and I at one point he was alleging that Iranian mullahs were sneaking into Havana to help with it.

This congressional report is full of the same sort of wild fantasies.

On page 9, the report alleges that "Iran is currently enriching uranium to weapons grade using a 164-machine centrifuge cascade at this facility in Natanz."

This is an outright lie. Enriching to weapons grade would require at least 80% enrichment. Iran claims . . . 2.5 per cent. See how that isn't the same thing? See how you can't blow up anything with 2.5 percent?

The claim is not only flat wrong, but it is misleading in another way. You need 16,000 centrifuges, hooked up so that they cascade, to make enough enriched uranium for a bomb in any realistic time fame, even if you know how to get the 80 percent! Iran has . . . 164. See how that isn't the same?

The report cites the International Atomic Energy Agency only when it is critical of Iran. It does not tell us what the IAEA actually has found.

By the way, here is what IAEA head Mohamed Elbaradei said in early March, 2003, about Iraq:


' After three months of intrusive inspections, we have to date found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons programme in Iraq. '


At the same time, Republicans like Donald Rumsfeld were saying he knew exactly where Iraq's WMD was!

Elbaradei was right then, and Fleitz was wrong. Can't get fooled again.

And here is what the IAEA said about Iran just last January:

" Iran has continued to facilitate access under its Safeguards Agreement as requested by the Agency, and to act as if the Additional Protocol is in force, including by providing in a timely manner the requisite declarations and access to locations."


Last April Elbaradei complained about the hype around Iran's nuclear research, and said that there is no imminent threat from Iran.

The only thing that the IAEA knows for sure is that Iran has a peaceful nuclear energy research program. Such a program is not the same as a weapons program, and it is perfectly legal under the Nonproliferation Treaty, which Iran, unlike Israel, has actually signed.

The report allegedly vastly exaggerates the range of Iran's missiles and also exaggerates the number of its longer-range ones, and seems to think that Iran already has the Shahab-4, which it does not. It also doesn't seem to realize that Iran can't send missiles on other countries without receiving them back. Israel has more and longer-range missiles than Iran, and can quickly equip them with real nuclear warheads, not the imaginary variety in Fleitz's fevered brain.

Folks, we are being set up again.

22 Comments:

At 1:15 PM, Blogger John Francis Lee said...

The report is a set up. It will be used as a "taste" of the "real" intlligence, unfortunately classified and unavailable to the American people, used to justify the "fubbling" of Iran. Just like Lebanon.

Will "We the People" go for it? You bet we will. Hillary Clinton will lead us down the lane, by our noses. We went for the Iraq "adventure" and we'll go... we've already gone... for the upcoming vandalism in Iran.

"We the People" just flat out don't give a damn. The neocons in Israel can eliminate the infrastructure in Lebanon and claim they were attacked, and the neocons in Washington are going to do the same thing to Iran.

Don't look for the rationale. The neocons don't need one. And neither do "we the people". We'll just go along.

The neocons don't give a damn what happens to America or to "we the people". They have their golden parachutes. One of them is the president of the World Bank. One of them is a convicted felon pardoned by Bush XLI. Others are in "think tanks" and safe at the NYTimes. They just set up poor George XLIII to take the fall. To get rid of these guys we'd have to drive stakes through their hearts.

And "we the people' can't be bothered with politics. Important things draw our attention. Jon Benet what's her name. The Survivors.

What are we going to tell our grandchildren?

 
At 3:31 PM, Blogger RepubAnon said...

It would seem that Karl Rove has the bombing campaign scheduled for mid-October. I wonder if they'll move the schedule up if the Republicans sink further in the polls?

Bush's foreign policy goal of strengthening the Iranian hard-liners so that they make a believable foe seems to be working fine, as far as it goes. His delusional belief that everyone will rally around the US and help him prevail is flat wrong. My guess is the Chinese will move in - and publically use their US debt holdings to stop Bush's military adventurism. This will give China great publicity in the Mid East and show up the US as a has-been power.

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is already making overtures to China, despite the inability of supertankers to traverse the Panama Canal. If it becomes necessary to put the screws to W and his Bush League minions, China can probably afford to buy Venezuelan oil short-term, or ship it to Europe, and thus cut the US supply.

The US is massively dependent upon imports - and if China gets into the sanctions game, we're in deep trouble.

 
At 3:49 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Good Work Juan.

 
At 4:21 PM, Blogger Corinne said...

Laura Rozen, writing at The Washington Monthly, has some additional criticism from Gary Sick. Sick was an official in the National Security Councils of presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan, and he doesn't think much of the House Intelligence committee report:

"... The author did not have the time or inclination to talk to any of the intelligence organizations that he was indicting. If he had, he might at least have caught some of the embarrassing bloopers in the text. Yet the report was rushed to public release on the day after the Aug. 22 magic date of Iran's reply to the Europeans without even waiting for it to be reviewed by the full committee.

The irony, therefore, is stunning when Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), who heads the Subcommittee, explained the rush by commenting that "We want to avoid another 'slam dunk.'" The famous "slam dunk" judgment on Iraq's WMD was, of course, the result of selective reading of available intelligence, which some call cherry-picking, plus a willingness by some to subordinate the (often prosaic) facts to (sensational) ideological conviction.

That is exactly what has happened in this report. It is a sloppy attempt to lay the ground for another slam dunk judgment and a potential rush to war. It deserves to be recognized for what it is."

 
At 4:54 PM, Blogger Fade said...

They don't give up. They will use anything and everything to attack Iran. The people of America stopped them when they tried to push it forward right before Iran opened their oil bourse. Now, hopefully, we can do it again. It's great that You are focusing on the errors of this report immediately, instead of us learning that the intel was skewed AFTER The fact. I don't understand, after watching the fiascos in Iraq AND Lebanon how some Americans can keep pushing for attacks on Iran. How stupid are these Americans? As long as they don't feel like they have been directly affected, these types of armchair warriors will support even dropping nukes because "pre-emptively" they don't possess any morals. I look around, and I really believe NOW that its not so much fear as it is just Macho American Racism against arabs. Its sad and sickening.

 
At 5:38 PM, Blogger John Francis Lee said...

Bertrand Russell War Crimes Tribunal on Vietnam, 1971

Bertrand Russell wrote :
‘We are not judges. We are witnesses. Our task is to make mankind bear witness to these terrible crimes and to unite humanity on the side of justice in Vietnam.’

Noam Chomsky wrote of Bertrand Russell's Tribunal

' Russell wrote that ‘it is in the United States that this book can have its most profound effect’. He expressed his faith in the essential decency of the American people, his faith that the ordinary man is not a gangster by nature, and will react in a civilized way when he is given the facts. We have yet to show that this faith is justified. Russell hoped to ‘arouse consciousness in order to create mass resistance ... in the smug streets of Europe and the complacent cities of North America’. By now, there are few who can honestly claim to be unaware of the character of the American war in Vietnam. There are few, for example, who can now claim ignorance of the ‘new Oradours and Lidices’ described, in testimony to the Tribunal, by a West German physician who spent six years in Vietnam (see p.306). But consciousness has yet to create mass resistance. The streets of Europe and the cities of North America remain smug and complacent - with the {9} significant and honourable exception of the student youth. The record of the Tribunal stands as an eloquent and dramatic appeal to renounce the crime of silence. The crime was compounded by the silence that greeted its detailed documentation and careful studies. '


By now, there are few who can honestly claim to be unaware of the character of the American war in Iraq, of the American support for the Israeli war against Lebanon, of the intent of the same neocon putsch to launch aerial aggression against Iran. There are few, for example, who can now claim ignorance of the ‘new My Lai's’ described in Iraq by even the mainstream media. But consciousness has yet to create mass resistance. The streets of Europe and the cities of North America remain smug and complacent, the student youth included. The record of the Tribunal stands as an eloquent and dramatic appeal to renounce the crime of silence. Our crimes are compounded by the silence that greets their detailed documentation and the news of more to come.

 
At 6:00 PM, Blogger Dad the Realist said...

Greetings Professor.

I have reading quite a bit about this tirade over "unaggressive intelligence" concerning Iran's nuclear program, peaceful or otherwise.

The Bush Administration has no credibility on this issue or any other Middle Eastern issue at all. It is not an honest broker concerning Israel and the Palestinians. Nor does it have any credible negotiators of any stripe.

This is not an accident, this is been by design.

For thirty years Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld have been formulating ways to redeem themselves, and in their minds, America, for "losing" Vietnam.

The meme of "staying the course" and "spreading democracy" using American military power stems from the reasoning that if "we just kept on going in Vietnam" and just ecsalated the war more and more, we wouldn't have lost Vietnam to the communists.

We blame the neocons. But they are just ex-Trotskyists whom Cheney and Rumsfeld use as their mouthpieces. They have made sure that Bu$h has no option but to use military force in order to save face.

Failed meme then, failed meme now.

Only this time our economy is in jeopardy.

And nobody seems to care.

 
At 6:33 PM, Blogger james_speaks said...

"Folks, we are being set up again."

Yup.

"First of all, former CIA professional Larry Johnson and Jim Marcinkowski point out that the Republicans have a lot of damn gall. It was high members of this Republican administration who leaked to the Iranians and the whole world the name of Valerie Plame,"

Let's be clear on this. The people who want to bomb Iran are the people who betrayed the CIA agent in their employ who could have/would have told them exactly how close Iran is to nuclear power versus nuclear weaponry.

Is it possible that they did so on purpose? Was Valerie Plame betrayed as the result of a sting setup to betray Valerie Plame under the ruse of punishing Joe Wilson?

Go back a few days to the thread about neo-con fantasy stories...that bombing Iraq would bring democracy to the feckless Arabs.....that neo-cons are really conservatives and not Israeli operatives.

Isn't this bit about outing Valerie Plame accidently just another Mossad inspired fairy tale?

"...like the medievalist Bernard Lewis, who wrongly predicted that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would attack Israel on August 22, based on Lewis's weird interpretation of his alleged millenarian beliefs. Once the Neoconservatives went so far as actually to make fun of reality in the hearing of a reporter, their game was up."

There is an irrational drive to bomb Iran. It is irrational because Iran is like a 1955 Ford pickup with a straight six, and the US is like a 2007 sports car with 32 valves, variable timing, electronic fuel metering, etc.

If attacked, Iran would retaliate, rightly so, by taking measures to ensure the worldwide flow of crude is disrupted for a very long time.

An attack on Iran would be as if both vehicles were rendered inoperative and both were sent to the garage. Any mechanic can repair the old Ford truck. Repair of the new sports car requires special tools and hard to obtain parts.

The economies of certain nations are only a few steps removed from pre-pretroleum days. The means of manufacture are simple, the location and distribution of population, agricultural lands, manufacturing fascilities and government reflect pre-petroleum capabilities.

The economy of this nation is based on cheap oil. We are so far removed from the interim steps that removing cheap oil from the equation does not set us back fifty years or even a hundred. It forces us into an historically unprecedented dilemma. All of our placements are based on cheap fuel; population is located where interstate highways were located, agricultural production is trans-oceanic; manufacting is largely offshore.

If Bolton and his millenarian friends bomb Iran, expect the United states to cease to function as a single, coherent nation. Expect many of those "Muslim" nations which we disparage, and which are only a few steps removed from pre-petroleum economies, to rebound rather quickly.

Bombing Iran would be the ultimate act treason.

Not to worry, Paul "War Planner Extraordinaire" and "Douglas Feith's Supervisor" Wolfowitz has his finger on the easy button, World Bankishly speaking.

Careful readers might consider surfing the net for useful information on cottage industries such as intensive gardening and small engine repair.

 
At 6:42 PM, Blogger Pere Ubu said...

If you look at the map in the report referencing the various Iranian missles and their ranges, you'll notice the ranges are centered on Kuwait.

I'm thinking they took a 1990 Gulf War era map of IRAQI missles and recycled it for this report.

Either that or we can expect April Glaspie to be recalled soon to tell Ahmadinejad that we can't take sides in any disagreement he has with the Kuwaiti royalty...

 
At 10:27 PM, Blogger kelley b. said...

Not only are we being set up again, they know that about half of America knows we're being set up again.

They intend to use this and all their terror alerts to galvanize their third of America before the elections.

The remainder that is unsure will be intimidated into War and a Republican Congressional victory this year, along with those of us who know better but believe in preserving the system regardless.

 
At 11:34 PM, Blogger Adam from the Planet said...

Seems to be an error in the title:

"Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors."

Should read:

"Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With LIES!"

 
At 12:43 AM, Blogger MoreWhat.com said...

The WMD question is a dead issue. The proof that none were there was made public after U.S. military forces entered Iraq and did not find any.

http://morewhat.com/wordpress/

 
At 12:52 AM, Blogger Uniskywriter said...

Again members of Congress are abetting the executive branch by misleading the American people on Iran like they have already done on Iraq. Remember all those WMDs were a huge threat to us all! There appear to no consequences for elected officials for prevaricating to the American people on matters of war because they are doing it again!

Where is our free press, especially mainstream t.v. (where most people get their information) in exposing daily the misinformation from our own government?

 
At 1:22 AM, Blogger endee said...

"Folks, we are being set up again."

How does it go? Fool me once, shame on you -- fool me once again, shame on me!!
I find it mind-boggling that the chief bully boy in the world today is someone who was elected by 52% of the approximately 50% of the eligible voters who actually voted. In other words, 26% of the eligible voters actually voted for the Grand Old Party candidate.
If this be democracy, then please arrange to confine it within your own borders or better yet send it to Gitmo.
A concerned South Asian

 
At 1:50 AM, Blogger Q said...

And... the missile are somehow originating from Kuwaiti Territory according to their map. Very curious why they did it that way.

Does this committee control budgets at the CIA? If so, it may be BS, but it will get results.

 
At 3:30 AM, Blogger Saimon Fitzyerald said...

The Nasrallah Interview
Counterpunch publishes an interpretation of an interesting interview between Nasrallah and a Turkish Socialist Paper.

"Q. It is possible to see the posters of Che, Chavez and Ahmadinejad side by side in the streets of Beirut. Are these the signs of a new polarization?

Hasan Nasrallah: We salute the leaders and the peoples of Latin America. They have resisted the American bandits heroically and have been a source of moral strength for us. They are guiding the way for the oppressed peoples. Go and wonder around our streets..! You will witness how our people have embraced Chavez and Ernesto Che Guevara. Nearly in every house, you will come across posters of Che or Chavez."

"the unipolar world" has already been left behind in history. There is us, there is Iran, there is Syria, there is Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea. There are the resisting peoples of Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan!"

I cannot say I agree with the analysis, but who'd a thunk it?

 
At 4:03 AM, Blogger Daniel said...

Being set up again, is right! But will the masses protest, march in the streets, hold rallies, build barricades? No way.

If the Cretinous Commander in Chief of the world's largest army, using some pretext or other, issues the marching orders the Generals will salute briskly and the mayhem will begin.

We, the people, seem to have no way to stop the madness visited upon us by our leaders. When are we going to take our world back?

 
At 4:17 AM, Blogger Ken said...

Not to mention that the range diagram for Iran's missiles shows them being launched from Kuwait...

 
At 9:42 AM, Blogger Alamaine said...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1858843,00.html

Saviour of Iraq's antiquities flees to Syria

 
At 3:10 PM, Blogger John Koch said...

Release of the House Intelligence report may have been timed to coincide with Iran's inauguration of a heavy water reactor and the signs that the US will face an uphill battle to persuade Russia or China to impose sanctions. It must really flumox the neo-cons that the others don't take for granted Iran will build nukes, or that Iran and Israel can deter eachother without causing Armageddon.

The author, Frederick Fleitz, is a pro-war provocateur whom Congressman Hoekstra picked because of shared beliefs about Iraqi WMD (existed, just not found), Iranian mischief, and about how attacking both countries somehow protects Israel and deters another 9/11. The appointment gave Fleitz access to reports written by former CIA colleagues, whom he resents for not sharing apocalyptic ardor. Now those who don't toe the line may share the fate of Plame.

Next time Hoekstra may hire an End of Days follower of John Hagee. Supposed Biblical prophesy will be deemed unchallengeable and not subject to any testable facts. It may not persuade China or Russia, but persuade America's millions of Left Behind readers that the time has come for a great glorious fire.

 
At 8:04 PM, Blogger Cyrus said...

MYTH:
Everyone should watch out for this spin: Since Iran "concealed" 18 years of nuclear development, then it can be stripped of its NPT rights.
FACTS:

1- Iran's efforts to openly cooperate with the IAEA in the early 1980s was thwarted by US pressure, and the same happened to every other attempt by Iran to openly cooperate with other nations in nuclear program:

"When Iran openly sought to develop the fuel cycle and the IAEA was willing to help it, the U.S. intervened to stop this. Whenever Tehran signed a public agreement with an international partner, Washington worked overtime to kill it. Given this reality, the only way to build a fuel cycle programme -- even if one's aims were purely peaceful -- would have been to go about it with stealth."

SOURCE: Siddharth Varadarajan
Associate Editor, The Hindu
http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/


2- Iran wasn't required to disclose elements of its enrichment program while the facilities were still under construction:

"Though there has been a surfeit of motivated and ill-informed commentary about how Iran "concealed" its uranium enrichment programme from the IAEA "in violation of the NPT" until it was "caught cheating" in 2002, the fact is that Iran was not obliged to inform the Agency about those facilities at the time. ... under the safeguards agreement in force at the time, "Iran is not required to allow IAEA inspections of a new nuclear facility until six months before nuclear material is introduced into it." In fact, it was not even required to inform the IAEA of their existence until then, a point conceded by Britain and the European Union at the March 2003 Board of Governors meeting."

http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2005/09/persian-puzzle-i-iran-and-invention-of.html


3- The IAEA has reported that whatever undisclosed nuclear program existed in the past, there is no evidence that it was used for nuclear programs, and that all fissile material in Iran had been accounted for. And note that Iran isn't the only country that has been accused of breaching is safeguards - several other countries including Egypt and S, Korea were caught conducting weapons-related nuclear experiments. The IAEA has system to remedy breaches, which has been applied to Iran.

4- Nothing in the NPT or Iran's Safeguards Agreement allows the US or the UN to simply dismiss Iran's NPT rights as some sort of "punishment"

 
At 11:01 AM, Blogger John Francis Lee said...

Thank you Cyrus.

 

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