Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, December 25, 2006

Christmas in the Middle East

Silent night,

Al-Zaman reports that "The Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad appeared almost deserted on Christmas Eve. Christian celebrations of Christmas were limited to private homes. Iraqi Christians had announced last week that they would suspend official celebration, out of solidarity with the tragedy of the Iraqi people." Iraqi Christians, who had enjoyed relative freedom under the regime of Saddam Hussein, now face fear of attacks by powerful Islamic groups or Shiite militias. Few are making any use of the Christmas lights and decorations of yesteryear. There were some 600,000 Iraqi Christians in a population of 27 million, but some say the number is now less than 450,000. Thousands have been forced to flee to Syria. The Archbishop of Canterbury has argued that the policies of the British and American governments in Iraq have endangered Middle Eastern Christians and that nothing is being done to protect them.

holy night,

The Archbishop of Canterbury, in Bethlehem, sharply condemned the Israeli government for the Separation Wall it is building on Palestinian, West Bank land, which is having a deleterious effect on Bethlehem:


' "The wall which we walked through a little while ago is a sign not simply of a passing problem in the politics of one region; it is sign of some of the things that are most deeply wrong in the human heart itself," Williams told his fellow church leaders, according to Britain's Press Association. "We are here to say that security for one is security for all. For one to live under threat, whether of occupation, or of terror, is a problem for all, and a pain for all," he was quoted as saying . . .

Bethlehem Mayor Victor Batarseh says the barrier separates residents of this town of 30,000 from jobs, studies, medical facilities and relatives in nearby Jerusalem. He told the visiting clergy the town had been "transformed into an open prison" by the barrier. "Your presence is challenging this ugly wall," Batarseh was quoted as saying. '


All is calm,

It was announced on Christmas Eve that "Six soldiers were killed in bomb attacks in and
around Iraq's capital Baghdad on Dec. 23, bringing this month's death toll to at least 82, the U.S. military said in four statements e-mailed yesterday."

all is bright

McClatchy reports that 29 bodies were found on Christmas Eve around Baghdad.

Two bombings in Baghdad wounded 8 civilians. A mortar attack on Zawra' Soccer Stadium wounded 7 athletes.

Round yon virgin mother and Child.

McClatchy says that in Diyala Province, northeast of Baghdad, a suicide bomber wearing a police uniform detonated his payload inside the police HQ of Muqdadiya, killing 7 policemen and wounding 30 others. Two more policemen were killed at a club west of Baquba, Diyala's capital.

Holy Infant, so tender and mild,

In the far-southern city of Samawa, clashes broke out again on Sunday between Mahdi Army militiamen and local police [the police corps is dominated by the rival Shiite Badr corps militia]. McClatchy says, "This morning clashes broke out again in semawa at about 9 o'clock between MAHDI army and Iraqi forces after one night truce between the Iraqi government and sadr office when the Iraqi government released some sadrist detainees. This morning clashes led to the deaths of 7 civilians and police; 19 others were wounded." Four more persons were killed in similar clashes in nearby Rumetha.

The LA Times reports that the cleric leading a renegade faction of the Mahdi Army in Samawa, Shaikh Ghazi Zarqani, is not under the authority of Muqtada al-Sadr. Tribes have chosen up sides in Samawa between SCIRI and the Sadrists, and the major tribe is even internally divided. The local Sadrist offshoot is demanding the release of 30 of its men from prison. Al-Zaman says that the Mahdi Army in Samawa violated the ceasefire by attacking the government HQ, demanding the prisoner release.

Sleep in heavenly peace,

This Christmas, Lebanon is teetering on the brink of major instability, with Christians divided against Christians and a major fault line running between the March 14 Movement and Hizbullah. The Israeli attack on the country, during the last three days of which it released a million clusterbombs destined to kill civilians and children, appears to have put a nail in the coffin of the national unity government. Israel did not destroy Hizbullah or even seriously degrade its capabilities in the medium term, and Hizbullah was hugely strengthened in Lebanon and throughout the Muslim world. So the war was for nothing. The Daily Star reports that even Christmas has been politicized this year, in the small country of 3.8 million, about a third of whom are Christians.

Sleep in heavenly peace.

Iran will defy the United Nations Security Council and press ahead with its uranium enrichment program. The UNSC demanded that Iran clear up the unresolved question of whether it has a military nuclear weapons program in addition to its announced and fairly transparent civilian energy research program. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to prove a weapons program but has been unable to rule one out, either. Iran is now threatening to withdraw from the IAEA. Iran does not yet have the capability to enrich uranium to the grade necessary to run nuclear energy plants. It would take many times that level of enrichment to make a bomb. The US National Intelligence Estimate is that Iran is 10 years away from that capacity even if it is trying hard and assuming the international atmosphere was permissive. The UNSC resolution is aimed at denying Iran the equipment necessary for a weapons program, assuming it has one.

The Bush administration, now hobbled in pressing for any further formal wars by a Democratic Congress, may take a leaf from Reagan's playbook and engage in illegal, covert activities in Iran aimed at overthrowing the theocratic government.

9 Comments:

At 2:48 AM, Blogger garry said...

The truth is I hate all manslaying, but I do not value 10,000 American lives over 100,000 Iraqi lives. That is the hard, ethical choice. You broke it, you bought it.

 
At 3:23 AM, Blogger Frank said...

Dear professor Cole

Sadly you are correct. New York Times reports the capture of four Senior Iranian Miltary Officals

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/25/world/middleeast/25iraq.html?hp&ex=1167109200&en=4e111a821b3118d9&ei=5094&partner=homepage

If you read Rory Stewart Occupational Hazzard about his time in Iraq there was always a group of Iranians floating about looking disaffected.

 
At 5:41 AM, Blogger brotherbruz said...

I'm trying so hard to still my thoughts, reading only a few input 'sites,' and quell mental turbulance. (No worry)....I'm not planning to comment here very often, only to slowly read.

Another informative 'sight,' I browsed on this silent holy morning, a commenter wrote "Gott Mit Uns?" (God With Us).

So, if we happened to be born in the wrong barn, didn't get a pair of mittens, got polyester jocky-shorts instead, or we mistakenly attended the 'incorrect' mosque, temple, or some other 'bad-boy-Tavern tha'ted yet to be bombed-away by haters...sitting on a stool/pew, of any structure somewhere on earth where people worship, love, play, rest, or even debate and drink honey-mead-wine along a chosen pathway to a hell (places where the bird don't sing)?!

I say too:

Sleep in heavenly peace.

And thanks to Glenn Greenwald's guest nitpicker. And the 167th commenter at Glenn Greenwald's site)

"Gott Mit Uns."

And sleep in heavenly peace too....

 
At 9:12 AM, Blogger Arizoniana said...

Such negativity!

We need to see some good news posted here -- like, how the British are blowing up the police stations.

 
At 12:48 PM, Blogger dingo said...

Dr. Cole, are you really that confident that a Democratic congress would block overt aerial attacks on Iran? Bush claims to already possess carte blanche from congress for any necessary military actions in the phantasmagoric “war on terror”, and since congress has long ago piddled away its constitutional right to declare war, he may refuse to even inform them. Or perhaps he will inform Pelosi and Reid once “actions” have started.

I would expect the U.S. would orchestrate some sort of “Gulf of Tonkin” incident in order to “counterattack” the “crazed mullahs”.

I’m sure you’re following the speculations of people such as Seymour Hersh and Scott Ritter on an impending attack on Iran, and you are certainly aware that there are four carrier strike groups gathered in the Persian Gulf to “send a message” to the Iranians.

As Democrats such as Pelosi and Reid are intimately wedded to AIPAC and Israeli foreign policy, I just see don’t see them as courageous or resolute enough to stop a determined Cheney/Bush drive for one more war. And Israeli leadership has repeatedly called for and threatened attacks on Iranian “nuclear” sites. Now they have secured their UN resolution to help make the aggression more palatable, and it even appears that Blair is on board based on his recent public comments.

Why does anyone assume that these people are suddenly going to become pragmatists humbled by the disaster they’ve unleashed? I think they’re fanatics, even more dangerous now that they’re somewhat cornered by reality. Bush’s response to the Baker group will be to send thousands of more troops and continue the war for the rest of his two years in his office. (We know impeachment is “off the table” already, according to Democratic “leadership”.)

According to Hersh, the only real opposition to an attack on Iran, (which could have included tactical nuclear weapons), are sections of the U.S. military who consider it extremely dangerous. However, they are not going to balk if issued direct orders to launch a strike.

Have a happy new year.

 
At 3:28 PM, Blogger gandhi said...

It looks like there is a global nuclear arms race underway in 2007: Japan, the Saudis and other "allies" are now actively pursing nukes (if Iran and NK have them...).

Meanwhile, I can't help wondering if Bush's "surge" ballyhoo is just providing political cover for behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts which are more in line with the ISG recommendations?

Happy Xmas and New Year to all. One love!

EG, Israel talking nice, suggestions of a $10 billion "jobs fund" for Iraq, etc.

If behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts cut violence in Iraq, Bush can pretend it was his bold military resilience that did it. Whaddayareckon?

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger Jim said...

Thank you for this post, Professor Cole. It reminds me of Simon & Garfunkel's 1966 album, Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme and the song "7 O'Clock News/Silent Night":

http://allmusic.com/cg/amg.dll?p=amg&sql=33:cr08b5p4csq4

 
At 1:11 AM, Blogger Jim B said...

I would like to read more about this possible covert action.
Can you provide more information.

Juan Cole:
"The Bush administration, now hobbled in pressing for any further formal wars by a Democratic Congress, may take a leaf from Reagan's playbook and engage in illegal, covert activities in Iran aimed at overthrowing the theocratic government."

Cheers Juan,
keep working.

Jim Byrne

 
At 3:29 AM, Blogger james_speaks said...

....meanwhile, back at the ranch, we Americans show our love for the baby Jesus by burning fossil fuel to power our pagan light shows. God Bless America.

 

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