Are we Winning Yet?
Submarines, Iran & Gulf
Somalia, Afghanistan, Palestine
Iranian officials point out that they don't need a bomb to stop petroleum exports through the Straits of Hormuz. And they say they will, if the US bothers them too much about their nuclear energy program. Iranian sabotage in the Straits of Hormuz could deprive the world of 40 percent of its petroleum. Ouch. And, as the US has discovered in Iraq, stopping sabotage isn't easy.
As if to illustrate the point, a US nuclear submarine collided with a Japanese oil tanker in the busy, crowded Straits of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf on Monday. While it is not true that a sunken supertanker would block the Straits, it is true that it wouldn't be so hard to sink some supertankers.
The last National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program predicted it was at least 10 years away even if it was trying and the atmosphere was permissive. Are Cheney's new appointments intended to alter that NIE?
The US used a navy AC-130 to attack suspected al-Qaeda in Somalia. Those hit are alleged to have played a role in the bombings of US embassies in 1998. But was the price of overthrowing the Islamic Courts Union throwing Somalia back into failed-state status? And might that condition not generate/ give safe harbor to terrorism . . ?
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the military dictator of Pakistan, is worrying out loud that religious extremists in his country are seeking a confrontation that could drag it into civil war. [Don't we already have enough of those?]
The bad news: the Karzai government in Afghanistan is rapidly declining in popularity. The good news: people really, really loathe the Taliban, despite their military resurgence.
Is all that Muslim infighting in the Middle East really just a volunteer activity?
posted by Juan Cole @ 1/09/2007 12:18:00 AM
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7 Comments:
Gee but that "al-Qaeda in Somalia" is such an outrageous lie.
Somalia is a failed state for the same reasons Iraq is or better as Cambodia when Shianouk was overthrown... foreign (read western) intervention.
I am amazed how the media shamefully discard this factor, its history for them jump from Mohamed Siad Barre to the warlords in a vacuum – sic – forgetting the cold war, the west fight against Menghitsu "communist" Ethiopia and the Eritrean war.
It would be helpful, Prof. Cole, if you could publish a small recap on this unfortunate country.
gdaminai
the council on foreign relations has a very useful background paper by Terence Lyons.
www.cfr.org
On another subject entirely. What on earth is a nuclear submarine doing in the Straits of Hormuz?
The US clearly wants a simple dictatorsip in the little Pali statelets. They can call that 'peace'. Hamas are the elected representitives of the people, any fool can see the Palis are being punished for turning down the oppertunity of the 'wonderful' dictatorsip of the PLO, and 'President' Abu Mazen.
Robert Fisk wrote it perfectly that the biggest obstacle now facing the 'conflict' is that Israel and the US no longer even see Palis as fellow humans; they see them as a subjecated people, a conqured race, still not facing up to the reality that they are defeated. For the Palis the issues have gone beyond mere 'issues', its basic justice they want, they know they wont be getting back their homes in Israel, Hamas can be brought to accept this too, only the Ceasers of this world want to pick wohm they want to rule conquered peoples.
Prof. Cole:
I hate to nitpick, but the AC-130 Specter gunship belongs to the USAF not the navy. The Navy does have a carrier battlegroup in the Indian Ocean of the coast of Somalia, and one can expect strikes from there, but no AC-130s will be taking off from any carriers anytime soon (although the original C-130 Hercules was tested as a COD/Carrier On Delivery aircraft, but it was to big).
from a guy who has worn special reflective buttons on the top of his patrol cap so that the Specter gunship could wrap me and 11 others in the protective warmth of it's cone of fire, that is one impressive weapon. Like the F-15, it is great when there is an identifiable adversary.
I have a little more trouble figuring out to employ this sort of weapon from 20,000 feet in an urban environment with insurgents hiding among the civilian population. But today we had the Strike Eagle providing close air support on Haifa Street in Baghdad.
And the US reported no civilian casualties. Oh, really ?
We can make a huge advance in gaining stature in the eyes of Iraqi civilians if we start treating them and their losses as if we think they are important.
There ought to be a commission or board representing the US that at least receives claims from Iraqi civilians for compensation for losses attributed to our military and mercenaries. After our military proclaimed that Iraqi deaths are not important enough to record or count ("we don't do body counts,") we need to show this does not reflect the official view of the US.
The AC-130 does have a dark side, especially when it comes to urban warfare. Reports from Panama suggest that fire from said gunships levels the entire slums of Ocho Rios, killing between 1,000-2,000 people. To this day the U.S. government has not admitted fault or even the existences of these people, nor any reparations have been made.
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