NIE: Iraq Fueling al-Qaeda Threat to US
Fred Kaplan at Slate points out that it does not take much reading between the lines to conclude that the new National Intelligence Estimate indicates that Bush`s Iraq War has generated a new and deadly threat against the US. In other words, the US had al-Qaeda on the run and would be safer now if it hadn`t invaded Iraq.
By the way, I had this argument two years ago with a US counter-terrorism official. He was skeptical of prognostications that the Iraq War would generate anti-US terrorism. I told him, you can`t have a massive US military occupation of a major Arab Muslim country for years on end that does not come back to bite you on the ass.
"Al-Qaeda in Iraq" is of course just a bogeyman phrase to describe Salafi Jihadis there. But they obviously feel some kinship to the real al-Qaeda (you never want to see that) and they are threatening to get up an attack on the United States. There was no al-Qaeda in Saddam`s Iraq, so it is Bush who has created this current threat, which did not have to be there.
Of course, the US Right will conveniently use the small "al-Qaeda in Iraq" organization, which it more or less created by its militarism, to justify more militarism. But I don`t think the American public is that stupid.
Meanwhile, the Voice of America reports that the Bush administration will freeze the assets of persons or organizations that attempt to destabilize Iraq. VOA says:
"President Bush has signed an order that allows the U.S. government to block the assets of any person or group that threatens the stability of Iraq.
The order exempts the United States."
Either the VOA copy writer is a little clueless or this person has a wicked, dry sense of humor.
PS For excellent entries on Iran and Pakistan, see recent postings of Farideh Farhi and Manan Ahmed at our group blog on global affairs. Dr. Farhi weighs in on recent developments in the Iranian detention of Iranian-American scholar Haleh Esfandiari, as well as in the arrest of student activists ahead of Iranian elections. For those hungry for Iran analysis, this is a real treat.
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/17/2007 09:33:00 PM
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10 Comments:
"Either the VOA copy writer is a little clueless or this person has a wicked, dry sense of humor."
I've noticed the droll sense of humor in relation to other topics as well.
It must be tough being a 'U.S. house organ' journalist in the digital millennium.
Here's the NYT article on the al-Qaeda/Pakistan NIE. It puzzles me how the "best and the brightest" of our intelligence community can continue to insert al-Qaeda in Iraq into the Musharraf/tribal areas/Osama terrorism structure. How can they expect to fix anything if they can't, or are not allowed to, express the situation clearly.
Its like Bush telling the Surgeon General what to say about medicine and medical science. "You will mention a-Qaeda in Iraq at least three times on every page of the NIE." Maybe what has to happen is that every media outlet has to open their prime time news, or lead with huge headlines on page one, something like this: " President Bush has been trying to mislead the American Public into thinking that al-Qaeda in Iraq is responsible for the 9/11 attacks and is closely connected to Osama bin Ladin. This is imply not true."(Details follow). Or maybe a few high level resignations on priciple might do it (I'm not holding my breath).
After reading the piece by Sarrah Rubin about the Durand Line (IC July 14) I have a much better understanding of the "tribal areas" in Pakistan. It sounds like Bush is about to throw a "bring em on" in that direction. But it looks to me that these areas, combined with eastern Afghanistan comprise an ad hoc nation, and a fierce one at that. But , not to worry . The Times article quotes a senior administration official: “We’ve seen in the past that he’s (Musharraf) sent people in and get wiped out,” said one senior official involved in the internal debate. “You can tell from the language today that we take the threat from the tribal areas incredibly seriously. It has to be dealt with. If he can deal with it, Amen. But if he can’t he’s got to build and borrow the capability.”(as if we have that capabilityto loan out.)
It ceratinly looks to me like we are about to add a third war to our current list - Iraq, Afghanistan, and now the Durand Line Nation. Isn't there some limit to the the fantasies we have about our military capacity and capability?
Well! It always makes my day to be cruising in Fred Kaplan's lane! Here is what I said about it:
"Especially when the whole thing is a mere 800 words in length, and if you read it carefully, the conclusion is, this administration has done everything wrong and allowed the real Al Qaeda terror network to regroup.
you wrote:
"either the voa copy writer is a little clueless or this person has a wicked, dry sense of humor."
recalling that the daily show host jon stewart recently remarked that "there is nothing the administration can do that is not ironic," i'm going to have to go with door number one, juan.
The "person or group" phrase is important. Not only is US Treasury sandbagging banks and finance houses that deal with Iran, they can now hit individuals.
God only knows what right of redress they then have. If their assets are frozen how do they pay their lawyers bills?
Could Juan Ricardo Cole be a person threatening the stability of Iraq by publishing blogs that tell it like it is?
The relevant Executive Order is found at https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070717-3.html
The clause exempting the US is:
"Sec. 8. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right, benefit, or privilege, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, instrumentalities, or entities, its officers or employees, or any other person."
More to the point, Euro Frank,
is there a reward for turning him in ?
Avid Student
There are alls sorts of wrynesses and ironies at work in this Twilight Zone of a time we're in, one of which is that warring abroad is actually making things more peaceful.
Certainly, in surgery against the insurgencies, there are going to be instances of distress to the physical structure in order to effect the intended results of the procedure. 'No pain, no gain.' In the past, I have likened what has happened to Iraq as removing all of the organs and reimplanting them without regard to any realistic order, requiring the patient to be on life support effectively for the duration of existence. As in the case of the Iraqi Army, some organs are merely discarded without respect to their vital functioning. We are reminded of Terry Schiavo as THE paradigm for Iraq, including diagnoses from distances and some sort of faith-biased beliefs in how well the patient is actually doing, not realising that it is beyond comprehension or survival on its own.
In this forum (as well as others), I postulated in March 2007, "In short, the Iraq of today will be the American tomorrow. I have long thought of what is being learned 'over there' as practice for 'back here,' once the competition for resources stiffens and small scale civil wars erupt, one aspect of which will be a sort of ethnic cleansing, initially prioritising the people who are deemed important."
Now, curiously enough, at Rense.Com (yes, but we aren't sure that Younger George did NOT travel to Roswell and take a ride on an alien spacecraft during his time at Midland, TX), there is a piece entitled, 'US Preparing Domestic Clampdown?' (TBRN News, ) 7-18-7, in which is written, 'As a result of this, plans are now in train to segregate, retrain and reequip certain anti-insurgent U.S. military units now serving in Iraq and to prepare them for quick transfer back to the United States for use "as needed" The Pentagon command believes that such civil insurrections are not only a possibility but a very real probability in the event that the President and his advisors maintain their present course vis a vis the Iraqi war.'*
While it is true that there are any number of 'false flag' issues at work in any information combat theatre or venue, the coincidence is hard to ignore. Additionally, PC Roberts wrote recently, 'Bush has put in place all the necessary measures for dictatorship in the form of "executive orders" that are triggered whenever Bush declares a national emergency. Recent statements by Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff, former Republican senator Rick Santorum and others suggest that Americans might expect a series of staged, or false flag, "terrorist" events in the near future.'** Again, an indicator of the tenor and intentions of the 'leadership.'
Of course, indicators are merely signs of things that can potentially occur. They may, in fact, mean nothing, even if they are planted to see what people will think and do by consequence. Nevertheless, these sorts of items are interesting for their mental stimulation value, if not to be able to say 'HA!' should they come to pass. Conflicts are easy opportunities to identify and name enemies of all sorts, those who might be found tobe seditious if not just dissenters.
Let us not be surprised even if we eventually do become disappointed!
* http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a2720.htm#004
** http://www.counterpunch.com/roberts07162007.html
That must have been a particularly clueless counter-terrorism official Juan spoke to back in '05. The one who was skeptical of prognostications that the Iraq War would generate anti-US terrorism. And Fred Kaplan, who made a hopeless effort to rubbish the Johns Hopkins Iraq mortality study, is again several years behind the curve -
Boston Globe, June '05:
"The CIA believes the Iraq insurgency poses an international threat and may produce better-trained Islamic terrorists than the 1980s Afghanistan war that gave rise to Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, officials said yesterday."
US National Intelligence Council – “Mapping the Global Future” 2004 report:
"Iraq and other possible conflicts in the future could provide recruitment, training grounds, technical skills and language proficiency for a new class of terrorists who are “professionalized” and for whom political violence becomes an end in itself."
Defense Science Board Strategic Communication Study (pdf)
September 2004
"American direct intervention in the Muslim World has paradoxically elevated the stature of and support for radical Islamists, while diminishing support for the United States to single-digits in some Arab societies."
Porter Goss, CIA Director talking to the Select Committee on Intelligence - February 17, 2005:
"Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-U.S. jihadists, …… These jihadists who survive will leave Iraq experienced and focused on acts of urban terrorism," he said. "They represent a potential pool of contacts to build transnational terrorist cells, groups and networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries."
I don't think the latest NIE tells us much we didn't already know, though the message - don't attack Iran - is one I rather hope gets through.
I posted a comment on the international blog in response to the lunacy proposed in today's Washington Post Editorial.
As the number of troops required now starts to make the draft look like an issue it is time to get your readers to read some good stuff.
The Anabasis of Xenophon is essential reading and it would be nice if you put it on your reading list
The Young British Soldier
and
Arithmetic of the Frontier
should be taught in High School
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