Tenet on the Staircase with the Neocons

My column in response to George Tenet's "60 Minutes" interview is available at Salon.com.

Excerpt:

The French call it "the spirit of the staircase" (l'esprit d'escalier), the clever reply to someone that comes to you on your way up to the bedroom after a cocktail party. In his new book, released Monday, former CIA Director George Tenet has delivered himself of hundreds of pages on the staircase, imagining what he should have said or could have said to Richard Perle, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and the other neoconservatives who marched the country to war in Iraq using the pretext of Sept. 11. In his April 29 interview with "60 Minutes" touting the book, Tenet came across as a spectacularly tragic Walter Mitty, daydreaming about how things would have been different if only he had spoken up, if he'd only been a James Bond-style spymaster instead of a timid, fawning bureaucrat. But of course, when it really mattered, at the critical juncture of his seven-year tenure as CIA chief, Tenet said nothing.

Read the whole thing.
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Rice: Bush didn't Want War

Condi Rice on Sunday denied allegations by former CIA director George Tenet that Bush came into office determined to have a war against Iraq. This is the interview by Wolf Blitzer of CNN:

QUESTION: Because you remember Paul O'Neill, the first Treasury Secretary, where he wrote in his first book, The Price of Loyalty with Ron Suskind, and what Ron Suskind later wrote in his own book, The One Percent Solution, that the Bush Administration came in with a mindset to deal with what they called unfinished business with Saddam Hussein.

SECRETARY RICE: That is simply not true. The President came in looking at a variety of threats. We then had the September 11th events. The September 11th events led to a kind of reassessment of what the threats were. But in the entire period after the President became President, he was trying to put together an international coalition that could deal with Iraq, first by smart sanctions, smarter no-fly zones, then by challenging Saddam Hussein before the Security Council to meet the just demands of the Security Council, and ultimately by having to use military force. But this was an evolution of policy over a long period of time. Of course the President came in concerned about Iraq. President Clinton had used military force against Iraq in 1998. We had gone to war against Iraq in 1991. But the idea that the President had made up his mind when he came to office that he was going to go to war against Iraq is just flat wrong. '

But here is what Bush's ghost writer Mickey Herskowitz reports Bush saying during an interview when Bush was still governor of Texas in the late 1990s:

' “He was thinking about invading Iraq in 1999,” said author and journalist Mickey Herskowitz. “It was on his mind. He said to me: ‘One of the keys to being seen as a great leader is to be seen as a commander-in-chief.’ And he said, ‘My father had all this political capital built up when he drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait and he wasted it.’ He said, ‘If I have a chance to invade….if I had that much capital, I’m not going to waste it. I’m going to get everything passed that I want to get passed and I’m going to have a successful presidency.” '

So that was 1999.

Then we have this account from May, 2000, by journalist Osama Siblani, who met with Bush in Troy, Michigan when he was campaigning for the Republican nomination:

' OSAMA SIBLANI: I met with the President, and he wanted to go to Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction, and he considered the regime an imminent and gathering threat against the United States.

AMY GOODMAN: You met with the President of the United States?

OSAMA SIBLANI: Yes, when he was running for election in May of 2000 when he was a governor. He told me just straight to my face, among 12 or maybe 13 republicans at that time here in Michigan at the hotel. I think it was on May 17, 2000, even before he became the nominee for the Republicans. He told me that he was going to take him out, when we talked about Saddam Hussein in Iraq. . .

And then he said, ‘We have to talk about it later.’ But at that time he was not privy to any intelligence, and the democrats had occupied the White House for the previous eight years. So, he was not privy to any intelligence whatsoever. He was not the official nominee of the Republican Party, so he didn't know what kind of situation the weapons of mass destruction was at that time. '

Then let us come to January, 2001, when the Supreme Court had installed Bush in power. Former Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill wrote in his memoirs of the very first Bush cabinet meeting:

'"The hour almost up, Bush had assignments for everyone ... Rumsfeld and [Joint Chiefs chair Gen. H. Hugh] Shelton, he said, 'should examine our military options.' That included rebuilding the military coalition from the 1991 Gulf War, examining 'how it might look' to use U.S. ground forces in the north and the south of Iraq ... Ten days in, and it was about Iraq."

O'Neill specifically said that Bush instructed Rumsfeld to look at military options and how it might look to use US ground forces in the north and the south of Iraq.

How much clearer could it be that Tenet is absolutely right that there was never any serious debate about the merits of 'taking out Saddam' in Bush's inner circle?

For more evidence that the fix was in with regard to Bush and action against Iraq, see my "The Lies that Led to War" in Salon.com.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

25 Killed in Basra Blast;
Political Crisis in Basra as Governor is Unseated ;
Iran will Attend Sharm El Sheikh Meet


On Sunday evening, militiamen set off a bomb that killed 25 and wounded dozens in the poor Hayaniya district in the southern Shiite port city of Basra. Early reports put suspicion on the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Militiamen in Basra killed another British soldier on Sunday, bringing the total military fatalities for the UK in April to 12 and making it the worst month of the war in that regard.

Al-Hayat , writing in Arabic, alleges that on Sunday night, the elected Governing Council of Basra decided to fire provincial governor Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, the leader in that region of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila). The move came in the wake of a campaign waged by the rival Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq against him after the Virtue Party withdrew from the Shiite party coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance. Al-Hayat's sources maintained that British forces escorted al-Wa'ili to the airport, from which he left for parts unknown.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the GC vote of no confidence against al-Wa'ili carried by 27 votes. There are 41 seats on the council. Al-Wa'ili was initially elected by a slim margin of 21 to 20, with the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq having the 20. But the Virtue Party only had 15 seats, and was kept in power by 6 independents that voted with it. Obviously, all six have now defected to SCIRI, along with one Virtue member. The Virtue Party is denying the legitimacy of the vote and insisting that al-Wa'ili remains in office. Its spokesman says that 2/3s of 41 is 28, and that that is the number of votes necessary for a vote of no confidence. He implied that SCIRI is trying to monopolize Basra's oil wealth. All of Iraq's oil exports go through Basra these days, since the Kirkuk pipeline keeps getting hit. Iraq export on the order of 1.6 million barrels a day of petroleum through Basra, with up to 500,000 barrels of that being stolen and smuggled out. Political parties and militias are among the major petroleum smugglers in Basra. This article says that anxiety has seized the people of Basra over the conflict. Since all the parties are armed to the teeth, if there really were a constitutional crisis in the province, it could turn really, really bloody.

There are still over 6,000 British troops in the province, and Prince Harry is being sent there. A recently returned British private spoke out over the weekend, maintaining that "Basra is lost, they are in control now. It's a full-scale riot and the Government are just trying to save face."

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a source close to nationalist Shiite cleric says that he has sent representatives to Arab countries "to lay the foundation for a Sunni-Shiite alliance." The source said, "Sadr commissioned Aws al-Khafaji and Ahmad al-Shaybani to make a tour of Arab, regional and Islamic states in order to unite Sunnis and Shiites." He added, "The tour will end in the next few days, and will include meetings with Sunni clergymen in the Islamic world, along with political and Islamic personalities in the regional and Arab environs-- to explain the dimensions of the suspicious efforts to provoke conflict between the sects." (The subtext is that al-Sadr's emissaries will try to convince Sunnis that the US is actually behind the death squads killing Sunnis in places like Baghdad. As much as the US presence in Iraq is disliked by those Muslim states, I don't think many responsible people will buy Muqtada's line. For Sunnis, he has real credibility problems. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia won't even meet with PM Nuri al-Maliki these days.)

Iran may have helped the US capture an al-Qaeda operative, Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi, late last year. If so, the two US raids on Iranian personnel in Iraq in early 2007 were particularly rude.

Kucinich's introduction of articles of impeachment against Dick Cheney, which the corporate media has dismissed as Quixotic, got support from the California Democratic Party meeting in San Diego. The the party called on Congress to investigate misconduct by Bush and Cheney and take all appropriate steps, up to and including impeachment. It also called for a withdrawal from Iraq.

Guerrillas in the refinery town of Baiji kidnapped the drivers of 15 fuel trucks about to set out for al-Anbar province to the west, and then set fire to or stole the trucks. (Al-Zaman says they were stolen).

Reuters reports that:

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed three people and wounded eight others in the southern Baghdad Zaafaraniya district, police said.

BAGHDAD - At least seven Katyusha rockets landed near a Sunni mosque in the northern Baghdad Adhamiya district, killing two guards and wounding seven others on Saturday, police said.

Edmund Sanders of the LAT gives us a thoughtful, sensitive, informed account of the meaning for Iraqis of the assassination attempt Sunday on beloved broadcaster Amal al-Mudarris. A Shiite from south Iraq whose family suffered at Saddam's hands, she has long been a natural target for the Baathists who have been acting as spoilers in the new Iraq. Gunmen shot her in al-Khadra district of Baghdad as she was leaving her home, wounding her seriously in the head. Aljazeera showed her in her dingy hospital bed, the bandaging on her cheek looking amateurishly applied to me. It brought home how badly the medical facilities have deteriorated. Dozens of journalists have been killed in the course of the Iraq War.

Al-Zaman writing in Arabic says that 1 soldier died and 20 were sickened by poisoning at the Iraqi military camp at Kut. Last October, dozens of soldiers were sickened at the same facility.

The US military says that it captured 4 Shiite extremists who had been part of a network importing explosively formed projectiles into Iraq.

Iran has decided to attend the 2-day conference of foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbors in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt that will begin on Tuesday. Iranian FM Manouchehr Mottaki will lead the delegation. In his interview with Charlie Rose last week, Bush said of the possibility that US Secretary of State Condi Rice and Mottaki would have direct bilateral talks, "They could, they could."

Iraqi National Security adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubaie welcomed Iran's participation. He said, "It's very important for Iraq to get the United States and Iran talking to each other."

Remember all those painted schools that the Administration and its supporters endlessly crowed about? It turns out that 7 of 8 major reconstruction projects in Iraq are in danger of failing.

Indonesia, the world's fourth largest country and the largest Muslim country, called for an immediate US withdrawal from Iraq at the Inter-Parliamentary Union. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seems to envision a United Nations command succeeding the US forces there. Indonesian Speaker of the House Agung Laksono added, "It is a good momentum for the IPU to urge the United States to leave Iraq immediately, because it is immoral if a sovereign state like Iraq is still controled by Washington."

US Senator Dick Durbin says that the Senate Intelligence Committee received information in 2002 that was the polar opposite of Bush administration public pronouncements on Iraq. He says he remained quiet because the briefings of the Intelligence Committee were classified. Well, that is still true, so why is he talking now? And, I have just two words for the good Senator: Daniel Ellsburg.
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Al-Safi: Al-Maliki Must be PM for All Iraqis

The USG Open Source Center summarizes broadcasts of Friday prayers sermons in Iraq last Friday. Note that a representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani upbraided Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of the Da'wa Party for his tendency to speak mainly of the welfare of the Shiites, urging himm to be prime minister of all Iraqis. In contrast, he praises Adil Abdul Mahdi, the Shiite vice president, who comes from the rival Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. It is a remarkable and telling rebuke, and I think a sign of Sistani's growing impatience with the narrow concerns of the more sectarian leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance.

Iraqi Friday Sermons for 27 Apr Discuss Security, Political Issues Iraq -- OSC Summary Sunday, April 29, 2007 Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 27 April to carry the following reports on Friday sermons: Al-Iraqiyah: Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - carries the following report on today's Friday sermons: "Shaykh Ahmad al-Safi, representative of Grand Ayatollah Al-Sayyid Ali al-Sistani has warned politicians of using the extremist religious rhetoric. In a Friday sermon at the Al-Husayn Shrine, Al-Sayyid Al-Safi stressed the importance of putting an end to the security deterioration in some of the Diyala areas." "Al-Safi classified terrorism as two kinds, the external terrorism and the official terrorism, stressing that the latter is more dangerous than the external terrorism, especially since it contains political dimensions that affect Iraq's progress and development." Al-Safi is then shown saying: "I say that the prime minister should not talk about the right of Shiites only. This is not right, taking into consideration that he is the prime minister of Iraq. He should speak about Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, and all sects. When the vice president travels abroad he speaks about Shiites, Kurds, Sunnis, and all sects. However, anyone who speaks harshly to the point of causing moral destruction to others is not an official." At a Friday sermon attended by Shiites and Sunnis, Shaykh Ahmad Abd-al-Razzaq, imam and preacher of the Falih Pasha Mosque in Al-Nasiriyah, says: "We want an Arab position that pleases our hearts, removes our tears, and saves our blood." . . Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries within its 1700 GMT newscast a report on today's Friday sermons, as follows: Shaykh Muhammad al-Haydari, imam and preacher of Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "There are operations now, but they are not as they should be. Therefore, aid should be extended to some areas and a quick action should be carried out to purge these areas from the takfiris (holding other Muslims to be infidel), terrorists, and Saddamists." Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "I stress to you that there are no peoples in the world who have seen an ordeal like the current one in Iraq. We have been bleeding for four years now. Our houses are being demolished, our nerves are being destroyed, and our sanctities are being attacked. However, we are still continuing the march and we are still ready to make sacrifices in order to achieve our aspirations." Shaykh Talal al-Sa'di, imam and preacher of Friday sermon at Al-Kazimiyah mosque, says: "We are with the security plan and with every step they make. They are aware of the policy of the Al-Sadr Trend and the Al-Mahdi Army." The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 2008 GMT, as follows: Shaykh Muhammad al-Haydari, imam and preacher of Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Our people and brothers in the Diyala Governorate have been experiencing an ordeal for a long time. The Al-Anbar Governorate has also experienced an ordeal by the takfiris and the criminal gangs, but, all praise is due to God, thanks to the efforts of its sons and tribes and support from the government and the army and police forces, the people there have managed to liberate many areas in the Al-Anbar Governorate. However, the Diyala Governorate is still suffering major problems." Al-Haydari stresses the "displacement" issue and highlights the suffering of the displaced citizens. He urges the government to solve the problems of these citizens. Speaking about the Congress debate on the issue of withdrawal from Iraq, Al-Haydari says: "What counts is the position of the Iraqi people. Certainly, more than 99 percent of the people do not want the occupation." Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, discusses the security situation and the daily "booby-trapped cars" in Iraq. He says: "We pinned great hopes on the Law Enforcement Plan, and the government has made serious efforts in this regard." Assessing this plan, he says: "We can say that it is a plan that has managed to achieve something, but regrettably, it has failed to achieve all the desired objectives. However, the plan can be considered one of the signs of hope." Iyad al-Zamili, imam and preacher of the Al-Diwaniyah Mosque, says: "The higher religious authority is now worried about what is taking place in Iraq. It calls for a quick action. (Terrorist) elements and groups move in the governorates to foment seditions. There is sedition in a certain governorate every day with the aim of disrupting the situation. This is a part of the conspiratorial plan of destroying the entire political process and all the achievements that have been made over the past period."

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9 US Troops Killed;
60 Killed, 170 Wounded in Karbala;
Over 60 Bodies Found;
Sadr Admonishes Bush

Iraqi guerrillas killed 9 US GIs on Friday and Saturday. Five of them died in active fighting in al-Anbar Province, which doesn't actually seem to have been turned around yet, unlike what is alleged in some quarters. A truck bomb attack had killed 10 Iraqis in the city of Hit on Friday.

Guerrillas blew up a market near the shrine of Abu al-Fadl Abbas in the holy city of Karbala on Saturday, killing a reported 80 persons and wounding 170. [Figures from Aljazeera early Sunday morning.] The sacred character of Karbala makes this sort of attack especially likely to provoke Shiite-Sunni tensions and violence. Wire services report:

' Television images showed a man running down a smoke-filled street holding a lifeless baby above his head. Smoke was rising off the baby. Ambulances had rushed to the blast scene in Kerbala, 100 km southwest of Baghdad. '

Reuters reports on political violence in Iraq on Saturday, revealing that "the war of the corpses" is heating up around the country. Some 17 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad, victims of sectarian death squads. In the mixed city of Baqubah, 60 miles northeast of the capital, police found 27 bodies. In the northern Sunni Arab city of Mosul, police found 16 bodies. Other important attacks:

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb hit an Iraqi army patrol, wounding two soldiers in al-Qahira district in northern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Three mortar rounds landed in al-Resala district in southwestern Baghdad killing three civilians and wounding 10 others, including two children, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded three others in Kadhimiya district in northwestern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a group of day labourers killed one and wounded eight in the Zaafaraniya district in southern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed five civilians and wounded one when they opened fire on their vehicle in Bayaa district in southwestern Baghdad. . .

Young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on Bush to acquiesce in the desire of the Iraqi people that the US set a timetable for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq.

In Islamic lore the Mahdi or promised one will return at the end of time to restore the world to justice. He will be opposed by an evil one-eyed figure, the Dajjal, which is usually translated the "anti-Christ" by analogy with apocalyptic Christian beliefs. Muqtada called Bush the Dajjal.

Muqtada's letter about Bush was read out in parliament by Liqa' Al-Yasin, female MP from the Sadrist bloc. The Shiite cleric called Bush "a great evil," adding, "Bush ignores all the calls asking for withdrawal or for the setting of a timetable for withdrawal, despite the demonstrations that the Iraqi people staged in Najaf and in every spot around the globe."

Muqtada addressed Bush, claiming that the UN had asked for a US withdrawal (not true). He denied that a US withdrawal would throw Iraq into greater chaos:
"What chaos can be greater from what we face in Iraq, in which blood runs every moment, without let-up . . ?" He asked if Bush had just traded Saddam's dictatorship for one of Shiite-hating Sunnis (nawasib) and excommunicators (takfiris). He asked what had become of Bush's debaathification, since he was now asking that Baathists be reinstated in the government. He taunted Bush for having announced an intention to disarm Iraq, complaining that Bush had filled "our beloved Iraq" with weapons. He asked, "How have you fought sectarianism, when you are reinforcing it by building walls and instituting partitions on a sectarian, political basis-- not on a national, Iraqi, Arab or Islamic basis.

Referring to the Democratic Party's dissent from Bush's policies in Iraq, Muqtada asked, "Do you want us to follow your mistakes and your plan, when you have yourselves turned against it? . . . What kind of democracy is this that you desire? Thousands go out to vote, then you go back to national reconciliation with Baathists and terrorists?

Addressing Bush, he said, "While you once predicted that your picture would hang in Iraqis' homes, now it is under their feet . . . You have destroyed the reputation of the West among Easterners generally." He accused Bush of having US troops put their feet on the necks of Iraqis, and desecrating the Qur'an.

He accused Bush of turning Iraq into an arena of contention. He said, "Bush, you wanted to make America more secure, but you have set it ablaze . . ."

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, speaking to a US congressional delegation, rejected US pressure and said that Washington's interference in domestic Iraqi political affairs was a "red line," the crossing of which he could not accept. The main issue that seems to have exercised him is US pressure on his government to change the "de-Baathification" process and to rehabilitate former Baathists (most of them Sunni Arabs) as public persons who can hold high government posts.

The oil investment law passed by al-Maliki's cabinet is also still getting a hard ride.

The LA Times reports on how security is deteriorating in Basra under the pressure of political and militia rivalries, leading to an increase in attacks on British troops.

Retired Lt. Gen. William Odom called on Bush to sign the bill specifying a US troop withdrawal from Iraq. Money quote:

' "The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place," he said.

"The president has let [the Iraq war] proceed on automatic pilot, making no corrections in the face of accumulating evidence that his strategy is failing and cannot be rescued. He lets the United States fly further and further into trouble, squandering its influence, money and blood, facilitating the gains of our enemies." '

Hmmm. I don't think Odom can be accused by the Republicans of being unpatriotic. He's not just some civilian politician. He isn't even a Democrat. He's a man of substantial military and intelligence experience. Certainly his credentials to speak on the impact of the war on the US military are impeccable.

In a video posted to the internet, an important al-Qaeda leader complained that the Shiites are not joining in the fight against the US but on the contrary are fighting al-Qaeda alongside the US. An anti-Shiite program is common among radical Salafis in Iraq, but had earlier been questioned by al-Qaeda leaders in the east.

Iraq's deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, will visit Iran in May.
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Qadhafi Predicts US Will Lose in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center has reported on a speech by Libyan leader Moammar al-Qadhafi in which he implicitly compares the US presence in Iraq to the Italian occupation of Libya (1911-1943).

Most Americans do not know about the long decades of European colonial rule of Arab countries, or that modern Arab political identity was formed in the struggle for independence from the West. They therefore tend not to appreciate the natural tendency in the region to see the US role in Iraq as an unwelcome revival of colonial habits.

On the Libyan struggle against Italy, see the Mustafa al-Akkad film, "Lion of the Desert," an Anthony Quinn vehicle about Omar Mukhtar's movement.

Libyan leader says US 'will be defeated in Iraq' Great Jamahiriyah TV Saturday, April 28, 2007 T20:11:32Z Libyan leader says US "will be defeated in Iraq" At 1752 gmt Libyan TV began relaying live pictures of the Libyan leader giving a speech in Sirte on the 92 anniversary of an historic battle against Italian forces. Standing next to the Libyan leader was the son of Umar al-Mukhtar, the Libyan resistance leader. The speech was held at the gravesite of the "martyrs" of the battle. The Libyan leader recounted the "heroic" exploits of the Libyans at the battle of Al-Qirdabiyah, in which Italian troops were defeated by the "national resistance". He dealt in great detail with the history of armed resistance to Italian colonialism, and the crimes of the Italians against the Libyan people. He suggested that the thousands of "disappeared" Libyans during the colonial period were abducted and taken to Italy. He called for DNA testing of all Italians to ascertain who were of Libyan stock. The Libyan leader went to condemn "traitors" who had helped the Italians in Libya, drawing modern parallels with "traitors" in Iraq. He condemned all forms of aggression and colonialism, considering that even the Muslim invasion of Andalus to be a mistake and a "fruitless venture". He heavily criticized the US for invading Iraq. He said its weapons "were ineffective against people who defend their honour and dignity". He added that the US would realize the futility of using force in Iraq, just as it had done so in Libya. The US he continued, will "regret" invading Iraq, and will withdraw defeated "with its hands over its head". He also touched upon current relations with Italy, saying that the Italians had "apologized for their crimes", and that contemporary Italian leaders "are what we are looking for". However, he said he would not visit Italy until compensation for the colonial period is fully paid. Only then, he added, would Libya be prepared to sign a treaty of friendship with Italy.

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Saudi Terror Plot Averted
State Dept.: Terrorism up 30%

Condi Rice wanted to delay the news, but it has broken on two fronts.

Warren Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay of McClatchy report that the annual State Department on terrorism will report a nearly 30% rise over the previous year, most of it accounted for by attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In other words Cheney has it exactly backwards. The US military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan is feeding terrorism, not preventing or lessening it. "They" won't follow us home if we leave. But they might if we don't.

As if to put an exclamation point on the State Department report, the Saudis were constrained to arrest some 172 persons involved in al-Qaeda terror cells in the Kingdom, who were planning to hijack planes and fly them into the Saudi oil fields. If they targeted the oil facilities cleverly, the terrorists could have taken 10% of the world petroleum supply off the market, at least for a while.

Saudi Arabia pumps roughly 8.56 million barrels a day of the some 86 million barrels a day of oil that are pumped in the whole world. You take any substantial amount of that off the market even for a month, and it would have a major negative impact on world energy supplies and prices.

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3 Marines Killed
Iraqis Resist Pressure for Benchmarks

Sunni Arab guerrillas killed 3 US Marines in al-Anbar.

Veteran foreign affairs correspondent Trudy Rubin argues that the upcoming Sharm El Sheikh conference of Iraq's neighbors is an opportunity for the Bush administration to enlist the aid of Iraq's neighbors in resolving the crisis. If you don't see the Bushies heavily involved or don't see practical follow-through from Washington, she suggests, then you will know that Bush isn't serious about peace making.

Reuters looks at the evidence that the Iraqi parliament is not going to pass the 4 Bush "benchmarks" by June and explains that this is because the Iraqi MPs have constituents who don't want things like reinstatement of Baathists in government jobs. Reuters further warns that too much US pressure could backfire because Iraqi politicians will reject it.

BBC World Monitoring paraphrases the following from al-Sharqiya Television:

' BBC Monitoring International Reports
April 26, 2007 Thursday

SAUDI SAID TO REJECT IRAQI PM VISIT OVER "BIAS TOWARDS A CERTAIN SECT"

Text of report by Dubai-based Iraqi private Al-Sharqiyah TV on 25 April

[Announcer-read report]

A high-level Saudi diplomatic source has announced that Riyadh did not receive Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, currently on a Gulf tour, because of his negative stands towards some sects in Iraq. The source, who asked to remain anonymous, added that Al-Maliki's bias towards a certain sect in Iraq as well as his negative stands towards other sects were among the reasons that prompted the Saudi leadership not to receive him.

Source: Al-Sharqiyah TV, Dubai, in Arabic 1836 gmt 25 Apr 07

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Iranian Press on Iraq Crisis

The USG Open Source Center gives highlights of the Iranian press on the Iraq crisis:

Highlights: Iranian Media on Iraqi Developments  20-26 April 2007 Iran -- OSC Summary Friday, April 27, 2007 The following are highlights of Iran-Iraq relations as reported in conservative, reformist, and opposition websites monitored by OSC. Majles Vice Speaker Calls for US Troops to Withdraw from Iraq (24 April) - - During a meeting with Denmark's Foreign Minister in Tehran, Mohammad Hossein Abu Torabi-fard, the Vice Speaker of the Majles, said that Iran "seeks to soothe violence and insecurities in (Iraq) and assist establishment of security and stability as well as strengthening of the legal government of Iraq, which has ascended to power through public vote and the Constitution." Torabi-fard went on to say that the "occupation of Iraq by alien troops has turned that country into a symbol of violence and unrest and a scene of terrorism and massacre of innocent people," and he called on the "occupiers" to withdraw from Iraq (Tehran Fars News Agency -- conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). Foreign Ministry Spokesman Condemns Attacks Near Iran's Baghdad Embassy (24 April) Following two car bomb explosions in a parking lot outside the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hoseyni described "the ignorant attitude of occupying troops toward such inhumane actions of terrorists as ambiguous." Hoseyni condemned the terrorist attacks, saying: "Such dastardly moves can disrupt the resolve of the two countries to deepen relations . . . (they) are in line with the same series of explosions which shed the blood of innocent Iraqi people on a daily basis and aim to impair Iraq's stability and security" (Tehran Fars News Agency -- conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). Ahmadinezhad Urges US Troops to Withdraw from Iraq (23 April) - - Speaking in an interview with an unidentified Spanish television station, President Ahmadinezhad urged the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq. "However," he said, they stayed in Iraq for the sake of oil reserves and are now facing problems . . . "For the sake of the Iraqi people, Iran was prepared to help, but the US again did not let us play a role in solving the problem" (Tehran IRNA in English -- official state-run news agency). Mehr Editorial Accuses CIA of Aiding Terrorist Groups in Iraq (23 April) - - An editorial on the conservative Mehr News Agency's website criticized the US for allegedly "using" the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) to "destabilize Iran"; it was purportedly protected by the US Army at Camp Ashraf in Iraq, which the editorial maintained "makes the US government complicit in the terrorist acts that have been carried out inside Iran." It also accused the US, and the CIA in particular, of using the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) Jundallah (Gods Brigade) for the same goal, and cited Greg Elich of www.GlobalResearch.ca as saying that "US and Israeli officials are setting up front companies to help finance future covert activities in Iran." The editorial concluded by saying that "An old adage comes to mind when thinking about how the CIA armed and financed Osama bin Laden and the Mujahedin in Afghanistan during the 1980s to undermine the Soviet Union: History repeats itself; the first time is tragedy, the second time is farce" (Tehran Mehr News Agency in English - conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). Iran Cuts Tariffs on Iraq-bound Goods by Half (22 April) - - Iran's Ports and Shipping Organization (PSO) announced that in line with the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on maritime cooperation between Iran and Iraq, Iran has reduced the port tariffs and costs for the vessels that transport goods to Iraq by 50 percent. The discount, however, does not include oil tankers or the vessel towing expenses that are normally charged by the private sector directly (Tehran Mehr News Agency in English - conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). Boroujerdi Calls for Stability in Iraq (22 April) - - In a meeting with Iraqi provincial officials from the Islamic Party of Diala province, the Head of the Majles Commission for National Security and Foreign Policy, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, called the "systematic massacre of Iraqi people" a "dark page of history"; he said that "the enemies of Iraq have very inhumane plots for the whole region and partitioning Iraq is among them." Boroujerdi went on to say that "Iran advocates the restoration of stability and security in Iraq," adding "Iran would spare no efforts to bring the chaotic situation in Iraq to an end" (Tehran IRNA (Internet Version-WWW) in English -- official state-run news agency). Editorial Calls for Creation of 'Collective Security Arrangement' of Gulf States (21 April) - - An editorial by Mohammad Reza Nuri-Shahrudi argued that Iran and Saudi Arabia should "stand up to the arrogant policies of the West" and "not allow the common enemy of religion and humanity, whose scurrilous intent these days is to create discrimination and division and fan the flames of religious and sectarian war, to achieve its evil aims." The editorial added that "(t)he enemy in Iraq sees it as in its interests to create discrimination and disunity" and urged that a "collective security arrangement of Persian Gulf states" be established, as recommended by the Supreme Leader. Doing so, the editorial claimed, would "gradually diminish this illegitimate presence in the region" and allow the "strategic Persian Gulf region (to) no longer be witness to the heavy investments which have been imposed from . . . an economic, military, and political point of view" (Tehran Jomhuri-ye Eslami (Internet Version-WWW) in Persian -- Tehran daily insisting on strict adherence to Khomeyni's ideals. Claims to be factionally independent but takes extremely conservative positions). Construction of Security Wall in Baghdad Commentary on Wall Being an 'Outright Partition' (26 April) -- An unattributed commentary in Jomhuri-ye Eslami opines that the construction of the wall in Al-A`zamiyah is "unprecedented" in history and an "outright partition" of Sunnis and Shi`as by the "occupiers," trying to fuel sectarian tension. Shi`as and Sunnis have gotten along in Iraq, according to the commentary. Together they ousted the British from Iraq, and even during the height of Saddam's rule, there was no division. While Al-Maliki has expressed his opposition to the wall and US forces have said they respect the "wish of the government and the people," they have prevented the Al-A`zamiyah residents from demonstrating against the construction of the wall. In the same way that the British used the Sikhs as a "superior class" for their own ends, the "occupiers" are trying to use the Sunnis (Tehran Jomhuri-ye Eslami in Persian, hardline conservative daily). Al-Maliki States Opposition to Wall (24 April) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki said he has asked the US Army to stop the construction of the wall around Baghdad's Sunni section of Al-A`zamiyah, Resalat reported, citing a Fars News Agency report, which in turn cited Al-Jazirah. The report said US forces started the construction of a four-and-a-half kilometer wall on 10 April, purportedly to end religious strife. According to the report, residents of this section have declared their opposition, adding that the wall will fuel ethnic tension and is only intended to protect the "occupiers." Iraqi MP Muhammad al-Dayini called it an effort to divide Baghdad and turn sections into large prisons. According to Resalat, now that Bush and his policies in Iraq have failed, the neoconservatives are preparing to partition Iraq, weaken the Al-Maliki government and fuel religious-tribal conflict. A 23 April Resalat report suggested that, the US aims to return the Ba`thists to power to gain Arab countries' cooperation ahead of the Sharm al-Shaykh sessions. Al-A`zamiyah Residents Prepare To Demonstrate (24 April) -- The residents of Al-A`zamiyah whose movements are "under strict control by the US Army" because of the construction of the security wall, are preparing to demonstrate against the "occupiers," Keyhan said, citing reports from Cairo where Prime Minister Al-Maliki, in a news conference after meeting with Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa, declaried his opposition to the construction of the wall (Tehran Keyhan in Persian, conservative daily edited by Hoseyn Shari'atmadari, Leader Khamene'i's representative at the Keyhan Institute where it is published). . Iraqis Oppose Building of Wall (23 April) -- Residents of Baghdad have criticized the construction of the security wall by the US Army, Keyhan reported, citing Iraqi sources. According to the report, one resident said the building of the wall is not going to protect Iraqis, it will increase sectarian friction. The plan is to divide the different sections of the city in order for the US to better protect its own forces. Another city dweller said the wall will add to the difficulties of Iraqis, who are unable to drive even now in this area. According to the report, the residents of the affected Al-A`zamiyah area announced that they would target US forces if the building were to continue. Diplomats Continue To Be Detained . Iraqi Security Official Says Diplomat Kidnapped on US Instructions (25 April) -- A high ranking Iraqi security official said that Iranian diplomat Jalal Sharafi who was released a month ago, was kidnapped on the orders of US security organizations, Resalat reported, citing Fars News Agency. The source added that Sharafi was released because of the intervention of Iraqis in Al-Maliki's government, such as the National Security Advisor Muwafaq al-Rabi'yi and Treasury Minister Baqir Jabar Sawlagh. According to Resalat, he but had to be hospitalized because of "severe torture" by US agents (Tehran Resalat in Persian, conservative daily owned by the Resalat Foundation; associated with traditional merchants and conservative clerics). Commentary on Detainment of Diplomats (22 April) -- Commentator Mehdi Mohammadi wrote that the attack on the Iranian Consulate was meant to blame Iran for the US "defeat" in Iraq, but the US has failed to show any proof of Iranian meddling in Iraq. Despite diplomatic efforts and over 100 days of waiting, the Iranian diplomats continue to be detained. Mohammadi added that Iran has a great deal of influence in the Middle East. The US ought to know, he warned, that aside from bargaining, "Iran has other means at its disposal and will use them when needed" (Keyhan in Persian). Arbil Kidnapping Indicative of Collapse of US Reputation (21 April) -- Islamic Coalition Party Secretary General Mohammad Nabi Habibi described the 100-day "illegal detention" of the Iranian diplomats as an "unequivocal enmity" toward Iran, Resalat reported, citing Habibi's conversation with Mehr News Agency. Habibi added that pursuant to "repeated US defeats" in the Middle East and especially Iraq, US has resorted to such acts in order "to salvage its reputation" (Resalat in Persian) Iraq Security Meeting in Sharm al-Shaykh . Reza'i Urges Iran to Participate in Sharm al-Shaykh Conference (25 April) - - On the sidelines of a conference entitled "Persian Gulf, the Symbol of Convergence of Regional Islamic Countries," Dr Mohsen Reza'i, the Chairman of the Expediency Council, answered a question by a Mehr correspondent about whether Iran would participate in the upcoming Sharm al-Shaykh conference on Iraq, saying: "I believe that Iran should take advantage of this opportunity and defend its position and influence in the region while preserving its interests and dignity. While conferences such as Sharm al-Shaykh and Riyadh are being held with special purposes, inter alia, to weaken Iran's role in Iraq and the region, we should not become too sentimental and should powerfully and shrewdly take part in the conference" (Tehran Mehr News Agency in English - conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). . Zebari: Success of Sharm al-Shaykh Contingent on Iranian Participation (24) -- Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the aim of his visit to Tehran is to ask Iranian officials to participate in the Sharm al-Shaykh meetings, Mehr News Agency reported, citing Al-Ahram newspaper. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Seyyed Mohammad Ali Hoseyni had said Iran's problem with the Sharm al-Shaykh meetings is its "venue and content" (Tehran Mehr News Agency in Persian - conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics). . Elham: Iran to 'Facilitate' Meeting with Iraq's Neighbors (24 April) - - Government spokesman Gholam Hoseyn Elham said that Iran would "attempt to facilitate the next meeting of Iraq's neighboring countries," a reference to the upcoming conference in Sharm al-Shaykh, Egypt. Elham went on to state that "Given the high significance of Iraq to us and our intention to strengthen the Iraqi government, attempts toward withdrawal of foreign troops from the country and establishment of a popular and legal government are underway" (I assume the quotation ends here) (Tehran IRNA in English -- official state-run news agency). Mottaki on Iraqi Security Meeting (21 April) -- Regarding Iranian participation in the Iraqi security meeting in Sharm-al Shaykh, Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said in an exclusive interview with Keyhan 's Gholamreza Taki that even before the first Iraqi meeting in Baghdad, Turkey had expressed interest in hosting the 2 nd meeting and Iran and Syria had agreed to it. It was also decided that should the 2 nd conference not take place in Baghdad, the Iraqi government with the consultation of its neighbors would announce the place. Unfortunately, Mottaki complained, the neighbors were not consulted. Regional or international meetings should not decide the fate of Iraq and its people, he added. In the last few years, he said, Iraq's neighbors incorporated assistance to Iraq and Iraqis in their own developmental plans, but the meetings in Sharm al-Shaykh "sideline the role of Iraq's neighbors." Commentary on Egyptian Venue on Iraqi Security (21 April) -- Commentator Mohammad Bustani's said Egypt is "unsuitable" as the venue for the conference on Iraqi security as Egyptians have lost their former position in the Arab world because of their cooperation with the US. Furthermore, he claimed the US is trying to establish security in Iraq only on the surface but has given the terrorists a free hand. Bustani added that the US and the Ba`thists, who aim to "defeat" the Baghdad Security Plan, forced al-Maliki to bring into the Iraqi Cabinet Ba`thist figures "acceptable" to Washington (Resalat in Persian). '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Criticizes Senate Vote;
72 Killed in Violence

An Iraq government spokesman has criticized the Senate vote for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq. (I was going to complain about Iraqi interference in US domestic politics. Then I thought, well, it is only fair that they return the favor.)

All 8 Democratic presidential contenders support a rapid withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

Former CIA director George Tenet's memoirs contain slams at Vice President Cheney for rushing the country to war with questionable assertions.

Junior officers in the US military are beginning to speak out against the top brass and the mistakes the latter have made in Iraq. Lt. Col. Paul Yingling warns that the US faces the possibility of losing in Iraq.

Guerrilla violence killed about 72 Iraqis on Thursday.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:
Police found 26 bodies in Baghad. Police found 3 bodies in Kirkuk. In Baghdad, guerrillas used a car bomb to kill at lease 6 and wound 15 in a district near Baghdad University.

Iran is playing hard to get and is still not sure it will attend the Sharm El Sheikh conference on Iraq to be held in early May. Washington had envisaged a conversation there between Secretary of State Condi Rice and the Iranian delegation.

With Blair going out, Labour Party politicians are ordering a rethinking of the UK's commitment to having troops in Iraq.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases items from the Iraqi Press for April 26:

' Al-Bayyinah runs on the front page a 70-word report citing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Political Advisor Sadiq al-Rikabi confirming that Al-Maliki will independently nominate the candidates for the vacant ministerial posts and reject the demands of political blocs regarding the upcoming cabinet reshuffle.

Al-Bayyinah carries on the front page a 100-word exclusive report confirming that a seminar will be held in Baghdad University on 28 April to discuss the proposed Oil and Gas Bill. The report adds that parliament member Haydar al-Abadi, former Planning Minister Mahdi al-Hafiz and other Iraqi experts will attend the seminar.

Al-Bayyinah publishes on the front page a 500-word editorial praising late Shaykh Usamah al-Karbuli, Abd-al-Sattar Abu-Rishah and other Al-Anbar tribal chiefs for maintaining the unity of Iraqis and confronting the Al-Qa'ida Organization and other Takfiris in the governorate. . .

Al-Bayyinah carries on the front page a 600-word exclusive report citing sources close to the Association of Muslim Scholars confirming that the Jordanian Intelligence Agency has notified Association Chairman Harith al-Dari to stop his political activities against the Iraqi Government on the Jordanian territories. . .

Al-Zaman runs on page 3 a 300-word report entitled "Al-Fadilah Party Criticizes Government for Keeping Silent About Threats Against Basra Governor." . .

Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 550-word report entitled "Salah al-Din Tribal Chiefs Demand Activation of National Reconciliation Project; Al-Shakti: Force Alone Will Not Restore Security, Constitution Should Be Amended." . .

Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 200-word report entitled "Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front Proposes To Postpone Voting on Gas and Oil Bill Until After Amendment of Constitution." . .

Al-Mu'tamar runs on the front page an 80-word report saying that Al-Fadhila Islamic Party has demanded that parliament establish a neutral committee to investigate the situation in Basra. (OSC plans no further processing)

Al-Mu'tamar runs on the front page a 220-word report citing President Jalal Talabani demanding that the sectarian dispute in Tal Afar is contained. . .

Al-Mu'tamar runs on the front page a 40-word report saying that the Iraqi al-Tawqfuq Front withdrew from parliament yesterday to protest the national security law, which they described as illegal. . .

Al-Zaman carries on the front page a 240-word report citing a high-ranking police officer, who requested anonymity, confirming that joint Iraqi-US forces are imposing tight siege around Al-Tahrir District of Ba'qubah to search for Iraqi Islamic State Chairman Abu-Umar al-Baghdadi. . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 4 a 75-word report citing a security source in Wasit denying that Iranian forces have occupied a border police station in Al-Kut. . .

Al-Sabah carries on the front page a 140-word report citing eyewitnesses coming from Maysan saying that the security situation in the governorate is deteriorating, especially assassinations against women. . .

Al-Mada runs on the front page a 120-word report saying that, in the first day of utilizing the technical equipment and explosive sonar, three car bombers and an improvised explosive device were detected. . .

Al-Mada runs on the front page a 110-word report on an Al-Qa'ida operative who recruits 12-year-old children to commit acts of suicide. . .

Al-Manarah runs on page 4 a 200-word report entitled "Basra Teachers Union Declares Open Strike in All Schools in Governorate."

Al-Manarah devotes all of page 5 to a report on the expanded symposium organized by the Civil Society Center in Central and Southern Governorates to discuss the proposed Freedom of Journalism in Iraq Bill.

Al-Bayyinah publishes on page 2 a 200-word report on the demonstration staged by the Passengers Transportation State Company's workers demanding salary increase. . . '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Riverbend join Ranks of Refugees from Iraq

Prominent Iraqi blogger Riverbend and her family are at last leaving Iraq. The discussions she reports have happened thousands of times a month among Iraqi families:

Since last summer, we had been discussing it more and more. It was only a matter of time before what began as a suggestion- a last case scenario- soon took on solidity and developed into a plan. For the last couple of months, it has only been a matter of logistics. Plane or car? Jordan or Syria? Will we all leave together as a family? Or will it be only my brother and I at first?

After Jordan or Syria- where then? Obviously, either of those countries is going to be a transit to something else. They are both overflowing with Iraqi refugees, and every single Iraqi living in either country is complaining of the fact that work is difficult to come by, and getting a residency is even more difficult. There is also the little problem of being turned back at the border. Thousands of Iraqis aren't being let into Syria or Jordan- and there are no definite criteria for entry, the decision is based on the whim of the border patrol guard checking your passport.

An airplane isn't necessarily safer, as the trip to Baghdad International Airport is in itself risky and travelers are just as likely to be refused permission to enter the country (Syria and Jordan) if they arrive by airplane. And if you're wondering why Syria or Jordan, because they are the only two countries that will let Iraqis in without a visa. Following up visa issues with the few functioning embassies or consulates in Baghdad is next to impossible.

So we've been busy. Busy trying to decide what part of our lives to leave behind. Which memories are dispensable? We, like many Iraqis, are not the classic refugees- the ones with only the clothes on their backs and no choice. We are choosing to leave because the other option is simply a continuation of what has been one long nightmare- stay and wait and try to survive.

On the one hand, I know that leaving the country and starting a new life somewhere else- as yet unknown- is such a huge thing that it should dwarf every trivial concern. The funny thing is that it’s the trivial that seems to occupy our lives. We discuss whether to take photo albums or leave them behind. Can I bring along a stuffed animal I've had since the age of four? Is there room for E.'s guitar? What clothes do we take? Summer clothes? The winter clothes too? What about my books? What about the CDs, the baby pictures?

The problem is that we don't even know if we'll ever see this stuff again. We don't know if whatever we leave, including the house, will be available when and if we come back. There are moments when the injustice of having to leave your country, simply because an imbecile got it into his head to invade it, is overwhelming. It is unfair that in order to survive and live normally, we have to leave our home and what remains of family and friends… And to what?

It's difficult to decide which is more frightening- car bombs and militias, or having to leave everything you know and love, to some unspecified place for a future where nothing is certain.

Only a few fleeing Iraqis have been admitted to the United States, which is a travesty.

Worse, Iraqis who want to come to the US as refugees seeking asylum often face a catch-22 of being defined as terrorists because they have been victimized. For instance, if a family had a member kidnapped, and payed ransom, and then fled to Jordan and applied to come to the US, their having paid the ransom would be considered a form of material support to terrorism and they would be excluded!

In the past 14 months, 750,000 Iraqis have been forced to flee their homes. And the US media lets politicians get away with saying that things are "improving"!

See Dahr Jamail on the Iraqi refugee crisis in Jordan and Syria.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Casualty Numbers Doctored
Attacks Near Mosul, Khalis
Sadr Condemns Wall

Since the Bush administration doesn't actually have any good news on Iraq, they are just making it up. It confirms your worst suspicions. They haven't been counting victims of car bombings when they say that violence is down in Iraq! Bush administration spokesmen and officials are just saying that fewer bodies are found in the streets, victims of death squads. But the number of victims of car bombing has actually increased in this period.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is withholding statistics on Iraqi casualties from the United Nations.

It is official: The real parts of the Iraq War are being treated as imaginary, and the imaginary parts are being treated as though they are real.

Early Thursday morning in Iraq, guerrillas in Khalis attacked Iraqi troops, killing 9 and wounding 15, 10 of them soldiers.

In Zumar, west of Mosul, guerrillas attacked the local HQ of Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic National Party.

Police found 18 bodies in the streets of Baghdad on Wednesday.

Nationalist young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr on Wednesday condemned the US plans to build a wall around the Adhamiya district of Baghdad, calling it "evil" and warning it would reinforce sectarianism. Al-Sadr has a pan-Islamic rhetoric, but at night his Mahdi Army goons murder Sunni Arabs in the street. It remains to be seen if he is capable of reining in his goons and actually put together an anti-Coalition alliance of both Shiites and Sunnis.

The House of Representative passed a budget supplemental containing a timetable for withdrawal of US troops, in defiance of Bush, who says he will veto it. The LAT points out that far from being unpopular with constituents back home, the Dems have gotten a lot of support from voters for trying to rescue our trapped troops from the quagmire.

The House of Representatives' Oversight and Government Reform Committee has subpoened Condi Rice with regard to the alledged nuclear weapons program and purchase of yellowcake from Niger.

Speaking of accountability, Dennis Kucinich has introduced articles of impeachement against VP Richard Bruce Cheney.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dadullah Claim on UBL "Unreliable"

The USG Open Source Center has translated the transcript of a Pakistani television interview program that casts doubt on the claim by Mulla Dadullah that Usamah Bin Laden planned out the attack on Bagram, and is also behind the guerrillas in Iraq.

Taliban Commander Claim on UBL Geo News TV Thursday, April 26, 2007 Program: "Today With Kamran Khan" Karachi Geo News television in Urdu at 1800 GMT on 25 April relays live from its Karachi studio regularly scheduled "Today with Kamran Khan" program. Noted Pakistan journalist Kamran Khan reviews, discusses, and analyzes major day-to-day developments with government ministers and officials, opposition leaders and noted analysts . . . Segment V Kamran Khan says the "most reliable" Taliban Commander Mulla Dadullah has made a "startling revelation" in an Al-Jazeera TV interview that the suicide attack at the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan targeted US Vice President Dick Cheney and it was "planned and supervised by Usama Bin Ladin himself." Khan says this is for the first time in last few years that the report has come about Usama Bin Ladin's operational activity from a "credible source" as Mullah Dadullah is considered close to Al-Qa'ida and he is the top most commander of Taliban. Kamran Khan establishes telephonic contact in Peshawar with Rahimullah Yusufzai, prominent Afghan affairs analyst, and asks him how "//credible//" is Mulla Dadullah's claim. Yusufzai says when the Bagram suicide attack took place, a Taliban spokesman had then claimed that "the Taliban have carried out the suicide attack." Yusufzai adds that the Taliban at that time did not say that the attack was carried out by Al-Qa'ida or supervised by Usama Bin Ladin. Yusufzai says the attack took place about 2 months ago and Dadullah's claim has come after a long period. Yusufzai thinks that if the attack was supervised by Usama Bin Ladin, he would have claimed it "right away" because it was a big success that the Bagram airbase was attacked, which caused a "big //embarrassment//" to the United States. Continuing, Yusufzai says Dadullah himself has now become a "controversial" figure among the Taliban ranks because of his recent activities, including "beheading" people. Yusufzai says so it is not right to describe Dadullah as "credible" and "important" Taliban leader. Yusufzai believes that Dadullah has made the claim under a "//strategy//" to "//mislead//" the United States and the NATO. Yusufzai thinks that Usama Bin Ladin is "alive, but non-functional and it is not possible for him to plan or supervise Al-Qa'ida activities." Yusufzai says according to his information, Al-Qa'ida does not have enough volunteers and cadres that it could plan attacks like one on Bagram airbase. Yusufzai adds that most of the suicide attacks in Afghanistan are being carried out by Taliban. (Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group).

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

McCaffrey: Iraq Gov't Dysfunctional
Support for al-Maliki Eroding

Now that Senator John McCain has retired the Straight Talk Express, retired general Barry McCaffrey, a veteran of the Gulf War, has taken up the mantle. McCaffrey has recently carried out a study of the situation in Iraq. Highlights (not in original order):

"We’re in trouble."

"The Iraqi government in power is dysfunctional."

"There is essentially no province in Iraq where the central government holds sway."

"Iraq’s neighbors are bearing no good will toward a favorable outcome in Iraq."

" . . . collectively the American people have said that the conduct of the war has been so incompetent that we’ve come to disbelieve the administration has the ability to carry this off."

"The next president, unless the situation in Iraq is dramatically turned around, is pulling the plug."

Gee, I guess Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are in pretty good company after all. It is Dick Cheney who is living in fantasyland.

In contrast, it seems clear that former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld routinely sent spokesmen out to lie to us about cases like that of Jessica Lynch and Pat Tillman. Lynch says she was no Rambo, and that Tillman was killed by 'friendly fire' was covered up.

USA Today reports that support for the al-Maliki government in parliament is eroding. He hasn't been able to push key legislation through parliament, and appears indecisive. (I think the problems are structural, not inherent in al-Maliki's personality. He seems pretty decisive to me. But he heads what is essentially a minority government, since his United Iraqi Alliance only has about 85 members in the 275-member parliament after recent defections. He can only survive by depending heavily on the Kurdistan Alliance, a bloc deeply committed to a weak federal government. He doesn't have much of an army of his own, and cannot independently do much about the guerrilla war. It is not clear who could do better.

Kim Gamel of AP writes about the new "dump truck bomb" tactics of the Sunni Arab guerrillas in Iraq.

The LA Times reports a major split in the Iraqi Baath Party. The Baath is more important as a component of the guerrilla war than is usually admitted by the US press and by the Bush administration. Al-Hayat reported this winter that actually the Baath has split into 4 parties, with Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri leading the most influential one.

The US is pursuing indirect diplomacy with Iran on a range of issues now, Warren Strobel and Nancy Youssef report.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq for Monday.

Regional players don't want the US to depart Iraq.

Tomdispatch considers the Virginia Tech murder spree in a global context, with former State Department official John Brown writing on 'the Cho in the White House.'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Press on Baghdad Wall

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases Iraqi press stories on the plan to build a wall around the district of Adhamiya (A'zamiyah) in Baghdad:

Iraqi Media Highlights Al-A'zamiyah Wall Construction Story, Cites Reactions Iraq -- OSC Report Tuesday, April 24, 2007 T14:13:33Z Iraqi media has increasinlgy highlighted reaction to the construction of Al-A'zamiyah wall and the positions of key players in Iraq as well as citizens of Baghdad. According to Iraqi reports, US troops began building the wall around the predominately Sunni district of Al-A'zamiyah in Baghdad. The wall, which is comprised of reinforced concrete blocks, each of which weighs more than six tons, will be 5.4 km long. The general tone of Iraqi reporting is negative and critical, with some outlets media outlets comparing it to the Berlin Wall and the containment wall first implemented by Israel's former Prime Minister Aiel Sharon, while others opine that it is a sign of a failed US policy to curb sectarian violence in the city. Click here to view a map of the district of Al-A'zamiyah in Baghdad. Wall of Al-A'zamiyah Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic -- Independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic-language daily Al-Zaman leads its 1300 GMT newscast on 23 April with a report on "a huge demonstration staged in Al-A'zamiyah City to protest the establishment of the wall which the Iraqi security agencies in cooperation with the US forces have started to erect on 10 April to isolate the city." The report notes that the demonstrators carried banners calling for removing "the concrete blocs and barbwire which they said have turned the area into to a big prison." Demo in Al-A'zamiyah On the official Iraqi position on this development, Al-Sharqiyah notes "conflicting statements by Iraqi security officials in charge of the security plan with respect to their knowledge of the construction of the construction of this wall. Staff Lieutenant General Abbud Qanbar, commander of the Law Enforcement Plan, denied the existence of this wall. However, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki confirmed that it does exist. Proof of this is that he requested in a news conference with the Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa halting construction of this wall." Admiral Fox in News conference The station also cites Admiral Mark Fox, head of the strategic communications brigade of the multinational forces, as saying that "the Iraqi and US forces are working together in Baghdad to establish security, noting that the decision to build the wall was endorsed by the Iraqi Government before the implementation of the project." After devoting the first nine-minutes of its newscast to the wall issue, the station moves to report on another development by starting its second story with the following sentence:" From Al-A'zamiyah wall to the walls of the Green Zone which are breached sometimes." Within its Harvest news program, the station at 1808 GMT carries a report citing reactions of several Iraqi politicians. The report notes that "Mahmud Uthman, member of the Kurdistan Alliance, said that the construction of the wall around Al-A'zamiyah area constitutes the height of failure, a bad and shameful step, and a violation of human rights. He stressed that this is a clear proof of the failure of the US and Iraqi governmental policy vis-a-vis preserving security, noting that this step means reaching the end of the road." For his part, Iyad al-Samarra'i, deputy for the Islamic Party, said that building the wall under the excuse of providing security protection is not enough to a take measure that segregates areas. For his part, Nassar al-Rubay'i, head of Al-Sadr Bloc in the Iraqi Council of Representatives, said that the wall is a first step towards building more than the Berlin Wall in Iraq. However, Deputy Jalal al-Din al-Saghir said that the idea of building the wall includes positive and negative aspects, adding that the idea is useful in terms of preventing interference in the affairs of Al-A'zamiyah. The negative aspect is infringing on human rights not to mention the consequences of building the wall. Izzat al-Shahbandar, deputy for the Iraqi list headed by former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, said that the operation proves the inability of the Iraqi authorities and the occupation forces to devise effective and acceptable means to defend people." Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic -- government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network, makes no mention of the development concerning Al-A'zamiyah wall during its 1400 GMT newscast on 23 April. At 1421 GMT, the station carries a recording of the news conference by Brigadier General Qasim Ata, spokesman for the Law Enforcement Plan; and Mark Fox. In the news conference, Ata speaks about the security barriers set up in Baghdad by saying:" I confirm that the security barriers set up in all areas and those proposed to be set up in other areas are temporary security barriers aimed at securing the citizens." He adds that "some brother politicians referred to the barriers as sectarian barriers and others likened them to the China Wall and others likened them to the Berlin Wall." He maintains that "this issue has been blown out of proportion. Why is this focus on Al-A'zamiyah area and why did not the media focus on other areas?" He asks why has not there been focus on barriers built elsewhere by these people "who try to trigger sectarian sedition." Within its 1400 GMT newscast on 23 April, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic -- Television channel affiliated with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, reports that " Brigadier General Qasim Atta, Law Enforcement Plan spokesman, strongly criticized the role of media in exaggerating the issue of the security barriers which are set up in Baghdad's streets as part of the Law Enforcement Plan." This is followed by a video report which features excerpts of the said news conference. The reporter maintains that "using explosives detectors and surrounding hot areas with barriers are measures which the security services abide by in order to reach the planned level of stability in Baghdad and other areas." Cairo Al-Rafidayn Satellite Channel in Arabic -- Pro-Sunni, anti-US Iraqi channel believed to be affiliated with the Association of Muslim Scholars, carries as the second news item in its 1200 GMT newscast on 23 April a report on Al-A'zmaiyah wall which starts as follows:" Iraqis have welcomed the decision to halt continuing the construction of Al-A'zamiyah wall with much comfort especially since simil ar walls had only bad impacts on their peoples in the world. For his part, US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker justified the occupation's construction of the wall as an attempt to preserve the city's security." This is followed by a video report on this development noting that "Iraqis received Al-Maliki's statements voiced in Cairo on Al-A'zamiyah wall with comfort especially since Al-Maliki's backtracking means that the decision to build the wall which separates between Iraqis, who have coexisted throughout years peacefully and without resorting to this segregation among their sects, is incorrect." The report also sounds out the opinion of Iraqis on the construction of the wall. One Iraqi citizen says:" The prime minister's decision to halt construction of the wall is positive." A second citizen says: "This is a correct decision by the Prime Ministry represented by the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki because this is something that might split the people and cause segregation among the components of the people." The reporter notes in the report that "for its part, the US occupation dealt with Al-Maliki's call for halting the construction of the wall cautiously, expressing resumption of dialogue on the construction of the wall which it claims preserves security in Al-A'zamiyah in an attempt to divide Iraqis." At 1207 GMT, the station holds a telephone interview with Yasir Majid, political writer and analyst, in Baghdad. He argues that "an initial examination of the pertinent statements indicate contradictions and that there are multiple decision-makers, and the unavailability of the least degree of coordination or agreement between the occupation forces and Al-Maliki's government." Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah Satellite Television in Arabic -- Private Iraqi television known for its opposition to the US presence in Iraq, reports within its 1400 GMT newscast on 23 April on the protest staged by Al-A'zamiyah's residents against con struction of the wall as well as Al-Maliki's statements in Cairo calling for halting construction of the wall. Afterwards, the station features excerpts of the news conference by Qasim Ata showing him as saying that "some media outlets reported that the security forces will build a 12-meter high and five-kilometer long segregation wall in Al-A'zamiyah area. Such reports are inaccurate. As I said, we will set up security barriers which will either be in the form of concrete blocs, barbwire, or sand barricades not only in Al-A'zamiyah area but in all areas suffering from the terrorist and takfiri operations." Aside from Iraqi media, key players in Iraq have also declared a position on the construction of the wall. In a statement posted to its website, The Association of Muslim Scholars condemned the construction of the wall. The AMS stated that "Following in the steps of chief criminal Sharon, the other chief criminal Bush now seeks to build sectarian separation concrete walls after the failure of all his plans to eradicate resistance, break the will of the people, and entrench sectarianism among the people's segments. This ugly crime shows the failure of the security plans of the occupation troops and the current government. Second, it demonstrates that these two sides have reached a hysterical stage. These troops, whose madness has led them to annihilating around one million Iraqis, today seek to impose collective punishment against those who reject their illegitimate presence. In doing so, they followed the example of abhorrent Sharon."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

10 Coalition Troops Killed
Dems set Withdrawal deadline
Iraqi crowds Reject Security Wall

It was with a heavy heart that I read that 10 Coalition troops were killed on Monday, 9 of them Americans. The guerrillas who attacked the US outpost also wounded 20 other soldiers, 5 of them seriously.

Militiamen in Basra killed a British soldier.

I'm sad about all this because we won't have round the clock cable television coverage of them, or lower the flag to half mast for them. And although we do not yet know the names of those killed, we know who they are like.

They are like Christopher North of Sarasota, Fl., a hero who aspired to be an FBI agent and who as a teenaged boy loved fast cars and motorcycles.

They are like Wade Oglesby, a painfully shy teenager with a "British sense of humor," an "incredibly nurturing" young man who dropped out of high school to care for his ailing mother and then his sister. When his mother died, he joined the army. His stepbrother said of him, "That kid would bend over backwards and go to the ends of the earth if you needed anything."

They are like Michael Rojas, and Army Staff Sgt. Jesse Williams, of Santa Rosa, "who died on April 8. Williams was killed by a sniper's bullet . . . Williams was 25 years old and on his second tour of duty. He leaves behind a wife, Sonya, and an 11-month-old daughter, Amaya. His wife said Amaya was the pride of his life." Scroll down for the Williams family photos.

They are like Michael Slater, just out of high school in West Virginia, who had all along wanted to join the army to serve us. We are told, "Rachelle Atkins graduated with Slater and described him as energetic, funny and happy. In high school, they worked together at the Red Line Diner in St. Albans, where he was a busboy. “He was really fast,” Atkins said. “I never had to worry about tables needing cleaning because he was always on top of things.”

They were like Kristen Turton, whose mother said of him, "If either of us were ill, he would look after us. I would always get flowers on Mother's Day and we would get lovely presents for birthdays and Christmas. "He was our life and our sunshine. Now he has gone, the sunshine has gone out of our lives."

Saddam is gone. There was never any threat to the US or UK from Iraq, and there is not now one. What is the mission, for which these young people have given their lives this spring? What do we tell their children about why their daddy is no longer there for them? Is it just Karl Rove's best guess about what will win the next election? Better business for Dick Cheney's golf buddies among the Big Oil CEOs? George W. Bush's cokehead emotional shallowness and inability to admit he ever made a mistake? What?

We ask our men and women in uniform to risk their lives, sometimes to sacrifice them, for the security of our nation. But the security of our nation is not in doubt. We ask defense attorneys to defend someone who might be guilty, and prosecuting attorneys to attempt to convict someone who might be innocent, since justice requires a fair trial, and guilt and innocence are seldom clear. In the same way, we sometimes send our military into a war, the justice of which is not clear. They have done their job, the job the American and British publics gave them, uncomplainingly. But if the prosecuting attorney suddenly finds evidence that the defendent is innocent, he has to drop the charges. Iraq is innocent. It isn't a threat to the US. It may now be a threat to itself or its region, because of the civil war. But it and its region will just have to deal with that. And they will deal with it better if we don't keep getting in their way.

That is why the Democratic majority in the House and Senate agreed on a date by which they want US troops out of Iraq. Because enough sunshine has gone out of our lives, enough children are without a parent, enough lives have been blighted, for a mission that no one has been able to define with any clarity.

Monday began with an attempt by the US military to forestall a demonstration in the Sunni Arab district of Adhamiya in northeast Baghdad. The attempt failed, when many hundreds (looked like well over a thousand to me on Arab satellite television) residents nevertheless marched in the streets to protest the building of a wall around their neighborhood as part of the security plan.

There was a great deal of uncertainty Monday about whether the wall building around Adhamiya would be halted. Some local Iraqis likened and its effect to what the Israelis have done in the West Bank, making everyone's life miserable because it is so hard to move around through crowded or mysteriously inactive checkpoints. An Iraqi general insisted that the building works would continue. US Ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, affirmed that the US would respect the wishes of the Iraqi government in this regard.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday. Among the major incidents:

RAMADI - Three suicide car bombers killed 20 people and wounded 35 others in the Iraqi insurgent stronghold of Ramadi . . .

BAQUBA - A suicide car bomber attacked a gathering of senior police officials in the city of Baquba, killing 10 policemen and wounding 23 . . .

NEAR MOSUL - At least 10 people were killed and 20 wounded when a suicide car bomber rammed his vehicle into the office of the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (PDK) . . .

BAGHDAD - Six people were killed and 14 wounded when a suicide bomber blew up in a restaurant near the entrance to the heavily fortified Green Zone . . .

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed one person and wounded four others in a parking lot across the road from the Iranian embassy in Baghdad . . .'

My opinion piece on Muqtada al-Sadr and his recent political moves,
"As premier loses stature, radical cleric is gaining it," is available at the "San Jose Mercury News."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

69 Dead in Bombings, Shootings;
Al-Maliki Stops Wall-building at Adhamiya

Reuters reports that a lot of wounded vets from the Iraq War are having to turn to private care. A chilling passage: "Of the nearly 24,000 wounded soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, about a third suffer from some degree of traumatic brain injury, or TBI, according to the General Accounting Office."

What? A third have brain injuries! That's 8,000 persons!

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki asked Sunday that the US military halt its construction of a security wall around the Sunni Arab district of Adhamiya. Al-Maliki spoke from Cairo where he is meeting with foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbors.

The mainstream US media will sidestep this point, but al-Maliki pretty explicitly said that the reason he called off the wall building is that he doesn't want his government compared to that of Israel. That is, the Adhamiya wall is being likened in the Arab world to the Apartheid Wall being built by the Israelis in the West Bank. Al-Maliki made the statement in Cairo, and when he referred to the "other walls" he didn't want the one in Adhamiya compared to, he pointed toward Israel. The Western press is bringing up the Berlin Wall as part of his meaning, but the videotape makes it absolutely clear that his referent was Israel's project. On the other hand, Nassar al-Rubaie, a Sadrist member of the Iraqi parliament, did warn that the US is building a series of Berlin Walls in Baghdad.

The politics of the wall points to the ways in which the Israeli-Palestinian issue is absolutely central to the difficulties the United States is having in being accepted in Iraq. Many Iraqis perceive the US presence as just an extension of Israeli occupation of Arabs and Arab land, and routinely refer to US troops as "the Jews."

The Israeli government has grossly mistreated the Palestinian people, the current condition of which is grave. The wall the Israelis are building is built on Palestinian land and has stolen more land from Palestinians and has in some instances run through Palestinian villages, cutting them in two and separating families. The Apartheid Wall has provoked demonstrations.

So being a foreign military force in an Arab country and looking like they are building security walls similar to that of the Israelis just puts the US and its ally, al-Maliki, in a very difficult position.

Not to mention that walling people up is intrinsically unappealing as a governing strategy. Mahmud Osman, a member of parliament in the Kurdistan Alliance and a former member of Paul Bremer's Interim Governing Council, told al-Zaman that the Adhamiya wall is "the peak of failure" for the new security plan and "a violation of human rights." He added that the wall "is a clear sign of the failure of the American and government policy for safeguarding security." Other MPs complained that the policy would create and reinforce sectarian divisions in the capital.

The US military had planned to build 5 such walls around Sunni Arab districts in Baghdad. It is not now clear if any will be built. Another corner of this story is the unpredictability of the political environment for the US military. It is inconceivable that al-Maliki did not earlier sign off on the Adhamiya wall, but then he changed his mind. The US officer corps in Iraq must be fit to be tied.

Some 69 Iraqis were killed in political violence on Sunday. 11 bodies were found in the capital on Sunday. Suicide bombers in Baghdad hit a police station, striking a blow at the new security plan, killing 12 and wounding 95. Another car bomb in the Saidiya district in the south of the capital killed 6 and wounded 37.

Up north around Mosul, Sunni Arab guerrillas captured a bus with Christian and Yezidi Kurdish passengers, separated them out by religion,and then executed 23 Yezidis. The murders were said to come from a local dispute stemming from the marriage of a Yezidi girl to a Sunni, and consequent Yezidi attacks on the groom.

The word Yezidi comes from the ancient Iranian Izad, a word meaning "God," and is related to the Persian "yazdani," meaning "divine." The religion is a survival of ancient Iranian beliefs and motifs shaped by a Muslim social context. Thus, the 7 angels they revere are probably originally 7 Indo-European gods. The chief angel, Melek Ta'us ("King Peacock"), is said to have extinguished the fires of hell with his tears, so that Yezidis do not believe in hell and are universalists. There are Zoroastrian influences on their beliefs and rituals, though these may actually derive from a common Indo-Iranian ancestry. It is not true, as some outsiders have alleged, that Yezidis are devil worshippers. They believe Melek Ta'us was a good angel, not satan. For a blogger's encounter with Iraqi Yezidis, see this site.

Indo-European peoples called Parsumash immigrated into what is now Iran and Iraq from about the 800s BC, according to the Assyrian clay tablets. These were probably tribal predecessors of the Medes and the Persians. The Kurds are linguistic and cultural heirs of these ancient Iranians, whose mythology was similar to what is in the Vedas. Most Kurds converted to Islam, but some retain older religious ideas.

This incident demonstrates that if the Iraqi conflict escalates (yes, it still can get worse), the Kurds may well get drawn in, willy nilly.

Guerrilla groups in South Iraq are saying that they will attempt to capture Prince Harry and use him to release imprisoned colleagues when he deploys to Basra. This article misidentifies the groups. Thar Allah is not an "Iranian-backed Sunni" group (it is rather Shiite), and I can't find any evidence that the Malik ibn al-Ashtar Brigade is Mahdi Army.

Mohamad Bazzi of Newsday considers the rising importance of young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr for the future of Iraq's government.

How many terrorists are there in Iraq? Good question. Of 18,000 persons in US custody, only 250 are foreign fighters.

The Fall of John McCain.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

3 US, 1 Polish-- Soldiers Killed
Protests Against Adhamiya Wall

Iraqi guerrillas killed three US soldiers and wounded 6 others on Saturday.

In a separate attack, guerrillas killed a Polish soldier and wounded others. The attack occurred near Diwaniya in Shiite south Iraq. US troops also came under attack in that area.

A city council member in Fallujah was killed by guerrillas on Saturday. He is the fourth member to be assassinated. The mayor of the city of Musayyib was also killed.

Some Iraqis are voicing criticism of the new wall being built by the US military around the Sunni Arab district of Adhamiya.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that many Iraqis, including several members of parliament, are worried that the new US military tactic of erecting concrete walls around troubled Baghdad districts will turn the city into a series of isolated cantons and actually reinforce sectarian divisions. An official in the Iraqi Department of Defense told the Saudi-backed London daily, "The districts that will be isolated by barriers after the isolation of Adhamiya and Dura are al-Amiriya, al-Amili, al-`Adl on the Karkh side of the capital, and Sadr City on the Rusafa side."

The article says that the US will deploy sonar bomb detectors at checkpoints in the Iraqi capital.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said in an interview that he looked with favor on the idea of establishing a separate province for Assyrian Christians in northern Iraq. This statement is controversial, since the way I figure it, it would have to be carved out of Kirkuk province, which is claimed by the Kurds. Assyrians and Kurds generally don't get along, at all.

State Department official David Satterfield, Condi's man in Baghdad, let Massoud Barzani and the Kurds have it in an interview on al-Arabiya on Saturday, over Barzani's inflammatory threats against Turkey and the harboring of 5,000 PKK guerrillas in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Members of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) staged a small demonstration at the southern Shiite city of Nasiriyah on Saturday to protest the demonstration held last Monday in Basra, sponsored by Muqtada al-Sadr's supporters, that called for the resignation of Virtue Party governor Muhammad al-Wa'ili. The Iranian ambassador to Iraq visited Ayatollah Muhammad Yaqubi, the spiritual leader of the Islamic Virtue Party, on Saturday, in an attempt to mediate the dispute among southern Shiite factions.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists Reject Abandoning De-Baathification;
US Walls off Adhamiya

One of the four benchmarks that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pressed on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on his recent trip to Baghdad was the end of "de-Baathification" or the exclusion of former Baathists from government jobs and high positions. Most of those disadvantaged by this process have been powerful Sunni Arabs, and it has fed the guerrilla movement. Muqtada al-Sadr's movement on Friday rejected any alteration in the laws and procedures of de-Baathification, according to MP Falah Hasan Shinshal. He is a member of the Iraqi parliament's de-Baathification Committee, and said that any change in the law on this issue would be unconstitutional, since Iraq's charter forbids former Baathists from holding high officer or entering into politics. Those who support the end of de-Baathification argue that it would allow thousands of ex-Baathists to regain their government jobs and enter public life, while those Baathists actually indicted for committing crimes would be tried. The fundamentalist Shiites and the Kurds will have difficulty making the changes that Gates demanded.

Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr's party reinstated two members of parliament who had earlier been reported to have been expelled from the party for meeting with American officials. This move suggests that Muqtada has ambitions for his bloc in parliament, and wants it at full strength. Thus, all is forgiven.

The US military is building a wall around the Adhamiya neighborhood, a Sunni Arab Baath stronghold that is surrounded on 3 sides by Shiite districts. I can remember when they built a berm around Tal Afar, as if that was supposed to resolve the problems there. No such luck. See below.

The northern Turkmen city of Tal Afar was put under curfew after Sunni Arab guerrillas called on other Sunnis to leave the city because they were going to attack it with chemical weapons. Last month guerrillas killed 152 persons with a truck bomb, the single deadliest attack in the past 4 years.

The convoy of Ammar al-Hakim, the son of Shiite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, was ambushed on Friday as it moved between Najaf and Baghdad. His guards were wounded but Ammar was unharmed.

Sawt al-Iraq writing in Arabic reported a large demonstration after Friday prayers in Baghdad by supporters of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) in Basra. This was a counter-demonstration to the rally held last Monday in Basra that demanded the resignation of the (Virtue Party) governor.

Nancy Youssef of McClatchy reports that the US military is no longer investing a lot in training or retraining Iraqi troops. They want to see the existing Iraqi troops demonstrate competence and fighting spirit instead.

Reuters reports political violence on Friday in Iraq.

Iraqi physician who estimated a high death toll in his country is denied a visa. Hmmm.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

5 Coalition Troops Killed, 20 Iraqis Executed
Gates Warns Clock Ticking

Guerrillas killed 5 Coalition troops in Iraq-- 3 Americans and 2 British, and wounded others.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned the Iraqi leadership in a visit to Baghdad on Thursday that the US commitment to that country is not open-ended. Gates indicated earlier that he wanted to see the Shiite and Kurdish government move with greater speed toward reconciliation with the Sunni Arab population. Like all Bush administration officials, he was obliged by the Karl Rove spin machine to say he thought "progress" was being made in Iraq. I'd hate to see what deterioration would look like if that is true. It isn't progress when nearly 300 Iraqis get blown up or shot in a single day, as happened on Wednesday.

Guerrillas conducted two major attacks in the capital on Thursday. At Jadiriya in Baghdad they killed 13 and wounded 26. They fired mortar shells at another neighborhood, killing 3 and wounding 1. Police found 20 bodies in Baghdad on Thursday. Salafi Jihadis executed 20 Iraqi security agents and posted the video to the Web.

Sadrist leaders are saying that Mahdi Army militiamen will not attack US troops, according to Reuters. Shiites in beleaguered Baghdad neighborhoods are demanding that the militia return to the streets to provide security. This step might, however, bring them into conflict with the US military, and they would prefer to see the US weaken the Sunni Arab guerrillas. The Shiite demands for security may ultimately, however, be overwhelming for the movement and it might have to give into them or risk being seen as ineffectual.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Buzz Reason, the Real Reason

Much of cable television news is a conspiracy to keep people gossiping about the wrong thing and to prevent them from understanding what is really going on. Here are some examples:

The Buzz Reason for the shootings at Virginia Tech? Movie violence.

The Real Reason for the shootings at Virginia Tech? In the United States, violently mentally ill persons are allowed to buy hand guns.

The Buzz Reason for the trouble US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is in? The Dems are playing politics with a routine personnel issue.

The Real Reason Reason for the trouble US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is in? He lied about not being involved with the decision; it is also now obvious that he was carrying out a politicization of the US attorneys offices at the order of Harriet Myers and Karl Rove in the White House.

The Buzz Reason for which Senator John McCain sang "Bomb Iran" to the tune of the Beach Boys' "Barbara Ann"? He has a quirky sense of humor.

The Real Reason for which Senator John McCain sang "Bomb Iran" to the tune of the Beach Boys' "Barbara Ann"? Senator McCain is actually Major Kong (Slim Pickens" from Dr. Strangelove -- the one who rode the nuclear bomb on down onto the Soviet Union.

The Buzz Reason for which Senator Harry Reid says that the US has lost in Iraq? The Dems have lost their nerve.

The Real Reason for which Senator Harry Reid says that the US has lost in Iraq? It is very dangerous for a country not to have its eyes open about how well it is doing in a war.

The Buzz Reason for which World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz is in trouble? The World Bank's rules against nepotism disadvantage two-career couples at the Bank.

The Real Reason for which World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz is in trouble? He gave his girlfriend enormous raises and used her for Pentagon purposes.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pakistani Analysis of Reported Iran Arms for Taliban

The US military report that it intercepted a cache of Iranian arms intended for the Taliban was analyzed on the Pakistani television station, GEO, by regional experts. They found the idea that the Iranian government is sending arms to the Taliban implausible, but suggested other reasons for which the Taliban might get hold of Iranian weaponry.

The segment was translated by the USG Open Source Center.

Pakistan: 'Prominent' Analyst Says Iran not Involved in Sending Arms to Taliban Discussion between Rustam Shah Momand, former Pakistan ambassador to Afghanistan and prominent Afghan affairs analyst, on telephone line and senior Pakistani journalist Kamran Khan in studio in Karachi on seizure of weapons consignment coming from Iran for Taliban--live; taken from regularly scheduled "Today with Kamran Khan" program; words within double slant lines are in English Geo News TV Thursday, April 19, 2007 (Kamran Khan) The US administration revealed that a big consignment of weapons, which actually belongs to Iran, has been seized and this consignment was being sent to Taliban (in Afghanistan) from Iran. This information was given by Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of US joint chief of staff, in Washington. While giving this information, Pace, however, said that the United States is still not sure as to which department of the Iranian government is helping Taliban and providing arms to Taliban. The United States had been earlier insisting that Shi'ite extremists in Iraq are receiving aid from Iran and a big //source// of attacks on the US troops in Iraq is Iran. But so far the United States has never held Iran responsible for spreading insurgency in Afghanistan and the charge of helping Taliban had only been made against Pakistan. This is the first time that Iran has been charged (with helping Taliban). We would try to know the //importance// of the US allegation. We have with us on telephone line Rustam Shah Momand, former Pakistan ambassador to Afghanistan and prominent Afghan affairs analyst. Peace be upon you, Momand. (Momand) Peace be upon you too. (Khan) Momand, is it surprising to you that the US administration, rather head of US armed forces, is claiming that a consignment of //Iranian-made// weapons which was being delivered to Taliban from Iran has been seized? (Momand) The claim is both surprising and not surprising because Afghanistan like Iraq is such a region and country where the interests of United States and Iran are not in conflict or in confrontation with each other. (Sentence as heard) This is one point. Secondly, as far as sending of this consignment of weapons is concerned, it is possible that the Iranian government may have not been involved, but there is a possibility that this business must have been going on in //private sector//. The situation, in fact, is that the Taliban face acute shortage of resources and they have been continuing their operations in last 4 to 5 years, especially in last 1 year, by procuring //cheap// weapons from small or big sources. I, therefore, believe that as the (Taliban) //resistance// near the Afghanistan's westerner border with Iran is expanding to a great extent and this area cannot be //supplied//from any other area, eventually the Taliban will buy weapons from Iran in small//quantities// and bring it to Afghanistan. As you know the //narcotics smuggling// from Afghanistan to Iran is taking place on large-scale at Afghanistan-Iran border. If the narcotics smuggling is taking place, weapons can also be smuggled, but the Iranian government itself will not be involved in it. (Khan) Momand, the reason (for the Iranian government not directly helping Taliban) may be because of ideological and religious conflict between Iran and Taliban. When //change of government// took place (in Afghanistan) after the fall of Taliban government engineered by the United States with the help and //support// of the Northern Alliance, Iran had fully supported that process and //indirectly// helped the United States in ousting the Taliban government. (Momand) Not only that, the United States fully cooperated with the organizations which were working in Afghanistan and which were considered very close to Iran. Rather, and more than that, those Afghan organizations, those political parties, (close to Iran) were given the representation in the cabinet and parliament in //disproportionate// to their //following// in Afghanistan. That could not have happened without the United States desire. That is why I earlier urged that there is no conflict of interest between the United States and Iran in Afghanistan and that is why I do not believe that there is a possibility of any kind of //direct involvement// of the Iranian government in sending of arms consignment. But it is possible that the consignment was purchased from the traders or //smugglers//, whatever they may be called, which was, perhaps, seized and which the elements involved in Afghanistan //resistance// wanted to use. (Khan) Thank you very much. Rustam Shah Momand, former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, was commenting on the statement by Gen. Peter Pace, chief of US joint chief of staff, that a big consignment of weapons has been seized in Afghanistan which was Iranian-made and was being sent to Taliban from Iran. (Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bloody Wednesday: Guerrillas, Violence kill Nearly 300 Iraqis

Well I guess those Baghdad markets aren't as safe as Senator John McCain thought. And, they look remarkably unlike small town Indiana this morning, contrary to what Congressman Mike Pence alleged a couple of weeks ago.

The thing about reality and politics is that sooner or later, reality outstrips rhetoric, and then the politics is revealed for the lie it is. The silly allegation that the guerrillas are only artificially making it look like the surge is falling is another piece of fluffy illogic. Define "success" for the surge, and then measure reality against it. You could say that it is still early to make a judgment. You can't say that there is no evidence after 6 weeks for whether progress is being made. In that regard, the answer is clearly a resounding "No."

Nearly 300 persons were killed or found dead in Iraq on Wednesday and hundreds were wounded. Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that the smell of blood and gunpowder wafted through Baghdad on Wednesday In the capital alone, Sunni Arab guerrillas carried out five horrific bombings in Shiite neighborhoods that, with some mortar attacks and shootings, killed around 200 persons and wounded many more.

The morning began with a guerrilla bombing of a police checkpoint at the gate to the Shiite slum of Sadr City, which killed 41.

Then the terrorists opened the gates of hell, carefully placing high explosives in a Shiite market and detonating them as workers gathered to take minibuses home after a hard day's work. The blast incinerated or tore apart some 140 persons and injured 150 more, according to Reuters.

Al-Hayat says: "Eyewitnesses said that furious citizens, who busied themselves with collecting bodies charred by the horrific explosion and gathering body parts spread over an area of fifty years, threw stones and the rubble produced by the explosion at a joint American/ Iraqi force that came to the market, forcing it to withdraw before this demonstration of popular rage."

Peddlers in the market put their wooden trolleys to work as ambulances for the wounded.

There were reports of children being pulled alive from beneath the charred corpses of their relatives.

Later on, the guerrillas set off two smaller bombs, killing even more Iraqis.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the arrest of the colonel in charge of security for the Sadriya Market. (That may make him feel good, but surely is bad for morale in the officer corps of the new army. Reprimanding or demoting him would make sense, but arresting him? Who would want to serve under such circumstances?)

Police also found 25 corpses in the streets of Baghdad, victims of death squads and torture. In Ramadi, authorities found 25 more decomposing bodies on Wednesday (they had found 17 the day before). In Mosul, police found 9 bodies.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Baghdad coroner's office is reporting a significant uptick in the number of unidentified corpses coming into the Baghdad morgue, especially from the (Sunni) Karkh area. This trend is a reversal of the lower numbers of corpses being found daily in February and March.

McClatchy has more details.

A big nitric acid cache was also found in Baghdad, probably intended for use in bomb making by the guerrillas.

The British turned over security in Maysan Province to local authorities on Wednesday. The southern, Shiite province, with its capital at Amara, is largely in the hands of the Sadrists. It is bizarre that the US is fighting them in Diwaniya but the British are handing over control to them in Maysan. Go figure. The British have now withdrawn from Muthanna, Dhi Qar and Maysan, three of the four provinces where they initially had security duties. They are now at a few bases in Basra.

The US more or less turned security in Najaf Province over to Iraqis (i.e. the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which is infiltrated into the police). The al-Maliki government hopes to see security in Karbala turned over next.

Parliament will soon take up the draft oil law passed by the Iraqi cabinet. The Kurds are insisting on virtual autonomy in awarding petroleum contracts in their areas. Other parties are concerned that the law potentially gives away too much to foreign oil companies. On the other hand, the law was drafted by Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani, a nuclear engineer who is close to Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and it is hard to imagine either that he can't count or that he wants to detract from Iraq's sovereignty over its most valuable commodity.

Iraq may have twice as much petroleum as anyone thought, a new study says. But, none of it will get developed under the current circumstances.

Kuwait is in talks with Iraq over the possible importation of natural gas.

Saudi Arabia has forgiven $15 billion in debt owed it by Iraq from the days of the Iran-Iraq War. Unencumbering Iraq of its massive debts, racked up by Saddam Hussein's wars, is key to any hope of eventually (10 or 15 years down the road?) nursing the country back to economic health. This step is the first major favor the Saudis have done the al-Maliki government, which Riyadh tends to view with suspicion as a sectarian, Shiite, pro-Iranian affair. It is further evidence that of all the major regional powers, Saudi Arabia is best placed to play a major role in resolving the Iraq crisis, if only the Americans would step aside and let it.

Scott Harrop on the ridiculous claims in the NYT and the Pentagon of Shiite Iranian arms going to the hard line Sunni Taliban. Iran is allied to the Hazara Shiite party in Afghanistan, the Hizb-i Vahdat, members of which the Taliban massacred and are still trying to kill. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense for Iran to arm the Taliban.

Officers I've talked to in the US military are absolutely convinced that Pakistan is behind the neo-Taliban. For Peter Pace to bring up Iran is just another piece of indirection. It is one thing to be amused by a magician's tricks, it is another to believe they are real. The second belongs to a category: that of a sucker born every minute. You let the American Enter-Lies Institute and Michael Rubin lie you into a war with Iran, America, and you will be very, very, very sorry.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

85 Killed or Found Dead in Baghdad, Ramadi, etc.
Return of Death Squads to Baghdad?
A Majority of Americans Say War is Lost

In the past 6 months, US troops have been killed in Iraq at the highest rate since the war began.

For the first time in polling on the Iraq War, a majority of Americans (51%) say that they expect the United States to "lose" in Iraq. Worse, 66 percent say that the war was not worth it! The public is divided about what to do about this white elephant it clearly thinks it bought. A slight majority says that a timetable for withdrawal should be set, while 48% oppose such a step. Only 29% say that Bush is doing a good job in Iraq. (One shudders to imagine what a bad job would have looked like!)

Some 85 persons were killed or found dead in Iraq on Tuesday.

Iraq's streets continued to function as a macabre open morgue. Police found 25 corpses, most showing signs of torture, in Baghdad. The creeping back up of the number of corpses found each day suggests renewed activity on the part of death squads, both Sunni and Shiite. I'm surprised that they are able to operate with such impunity in the capital given the increase in the number of US and Iraqi troops there.

In Mosul, nine bodies were found. Near Diwaniyah in the Shiite south, 4 bodies were discovered. There has been fighting in Diwaniya between the Mahdi Army and local police, dominated by the Badr Corps of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. In Suwayra south of Baghdad, 3 bodies were fished from a river.

In Ramadi, authorities made a gruesome discovery of a small mass grave with 17 decomposing bodies in it, probably victims of the Salafi Jihadi movement, "The Islamic State of Iraq."

There were also scattered car bombings and mortar strikes.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, spiritual leader of the Shiites, met Tuesday with Sunni clerics and they issued communiques calling for the end of sectarian violence. (The Iraqi clerics, including Sistani, have, however, lost political control and no one much pays attention any more to such counsel.)

Sam Dagher of CSM reports on the way that the resignation of the Sadrist ministers from al-Maliki's cabinet points to fissures within the ruling United Iraqi Alliance coalition of fundamentalist Shiite parties.

The big demonstration in Basra on Najaf -- some say 20,000 strong-- and continued militia violence in that city pose a challenge to stability in Iraq's major petroleum exporting port. Without security in Basra, it is hard to see how the Iraqi government can hope to survive.

The transcript and streaming video of my appearance Monday on the Lehrer News Hour-- regarding the resignation of the Sadrist ministers from the cabinet-- is now available both as transcript and streaming video.

Tom Engelhardt on tell-tale changes in Bush's rhetoric and figures of speech with regard to the Iraq War.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases Iraqi news items for April 16:

' Al-Manarah on 15 April runs on page 3 a 1,000-word report citing Maysan Governor Adil Muhawdar Radi confirming that Iraqi security forces are ready to assume security responsibility in the governorate. Radi outlined the development projects in the governorate. . .

Al-Sabah al-Jadid carries on the front page a 340-word editorial by Chief Editor Isma'il Zayyir urging the government to enforce law and order in Basra before it turns into another Al-Fallujah. . .

Al-Sabah carries on the front page a 120-word report citing Al-Sadr Bloc Chairman Nassar al-Rubay'i saying that the bloc will withdraw from the government because multinational forces still control the security responsibility. . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 3 a 260-word report saying that the Supreme Judicial Council has presented a memorandum to parliament calling for the lifting of immunity from Adnan al-Dulaymi for his alleged involvement in supporting terrorism. . .

Al-Mashriq carries on page 2 a 170-word report citing Iran officials doubtful of an imminent US attack because the majority of its forces are tied up in Iraq.

Al-Mashriq carries on page 3 a 1,400-word report entitled 'King Abdullah warns against hidden calls to divide Iraq.' . .

Al-Mashriq carries on page 3 a 300-word report saying that a number of Iraqi members of parliament criticized the conference held in Baghdad to discuss the temporary leadership of the southern region to include three Maysan, Basra, and Dhi Qar Governorates. . .

Al-Adala carries on the front page a 120-word report saying that Kuwait has reiterated its solidarity with Iraq, Algeria, and Morocco to combat terrorism. . .

Al-Adala carries on the front page a 120-word report citing Ammar al-Hakim saying targeting Karbala will either to control authority or cause murder of the masses.

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on page 2 a 120-word report citing Parliament Second Deputy Speaker Arif Tayfur saying that a US company, in coordination with the Interior Ministry, will be in charge of protecting parliament.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

7 US Troops Killed;
Iraq Has Two Virginia Techs Every Day;
Thousands Protest in Basra, Demand Governor's Resignation

I keep hearing from US politicians and the US mass media that the "situation is improving" in Iraq. The profound sorrow and alarm produced in the American public by the horrific shootings at Virginia Tech should give us a baseline for what the Iraqis are actually living through. They have two Virginia Tech-style attacks every single day. Virginia Tech will be gone from the headlines and the air waves by next week this time in the US, though the families of the victims will grieve for a lifetime. But next Tuesday I will come out here and report to you that 64 Iraqis have been killed in political violence. And those will mainly be the ones killed by bombs and mortars. They are only 13% of the total; most Iraqis killed violently, perhaps 500 a day throughout the country if you count criminal and tribal violence, are just shot down. Shot down, like the college students and professors at Blacksburg. We Americans can so easily, with a shudder, imagine the college student trying to barricade himself behind a door against the armed madman without. But can we put ourselves in the place of Iraqi students?

I wrote on February 26,

' A suicide bomber with a bomb belt got into the lobby of the School of Administration and Economy of Mustansiriya University in Baghdad and managed to set it off despite being spotted at the last minute by university security guards. The blast killed 41 and wounded a similar number according to late reports, with body parts everywhere and big pools of blood in the foyer as students were shredded by the high explosives. '

That isn't "slow progress" or just "progress," the way the weasels in Washington keep proclaiming. It is the most massive manmade human tragedy of the young century.

According to the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) actually trying to help the estimated 8 million Iraqis in dire need of aid . . . things are not going that well in Iraq.

Thousands of persons demonstrated Monday against the governor of Basra Province, complaining of poor social services and collapsing security, and demanding his resignation. Among the demonstrators were followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The Sadrists are not that numerous in Basra, so this demonstration was probably joined by other disgruntled groups, including the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the number of demonstrators totalled 20,000. Some Western wire services, however, suggested that there were as few as 3,000.

Guerrillas killed 5 US GIs on Monday in Baghdad and al-Anbar Province. The killings of 2 others on Sunday were announced Monday.

Sunni Arab guerrillas kidnapped 11 Shiite Turkmen from a town south of Kirkuk on Monday night. Such Shiite captives are often killed.

McClatchy reports that police found 11 bodies in Baghdad on Monday, down from Sunday's total of 30. Several persons were killed by mortar attacks, roadside bombs, and sniping in the capital on Monday.

Police found 6 bodies in the streets of the northern, mostly Sunni Arab city of Mosul (pop. 1.5 million) on Monday. Also, "police said that 13 Iraqi army soldiers from the second battalion were killed and 4 others were injured when insurgents attacked their check point in Al A’daya village south west Mosul city today." Guerrillas also shot down a lecturer and a dean at Mosul University.

In Tikrit, north of Baghdad, guerrillas killed 3 policemen and wounded 6 civilians with a suicide car bomb attack.

South of Baghdad at Mahmudiya, mortar shells killed 3 and wounded 17.

Iran condemned Sunday's murder of 5 Iranian oil tanker drivers near Baquba.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that an official in the Baghdad municipal council told it that there are hundreds of thousands of orphans in Baghdad schools.* She said that no steps have been taken to provide special services to this sector of schoolchildren, for lack of resources, and that only 2,000 are receiving government aid. (The Lancet study published last fall found 605,000 excess violent deaths in Iraq since the US invasion. These were fairly evenly spread around the country, and Baghdad is a fourth of Iraq, population-wise. So 150,000 excess deaths should have occurred in Baghdad. If we assume for the sake of argument that 100,000 of those killed were child-rearing adults, and if we assume 5 children per family and assume that in most cases only one parent was killed violently, that would be 500,000 orphans in Baghdad. Not all would yet be in school. The official alleged 900,000 orphans,but that strikes me as too high. I'm not a demographer, though, and would be interested in knowing what the Public Health people think about this statistic.)

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the self-proclaimed "Islamic State of Iraq" says that Iraq under American military occupation is a "university for terror."

To illustrate the point, the architect of the three massive bombings in Algiers, Algeria, last Wednesday says that he wants to turn Algeria into another Iraq. Muslim fundamentalists and the secular military government in Algeria fought a devastating civil war in the 1990s and into the zeroes of this century, which left an estimated 150,000 persons dead. The radical Salafis (Sunni revivalists), now calling themselves al-Qaeda in North Africa, are threatening to reprise that dirty war, which they lost. Some Algerian jihadis are getting training in Iraq, where they have gone as volunteers to fight US troops.

The Taliban in Afghanistan are also beginning to adopt the tactics of Iraqi guerrillas which include attacks on civilians in hopes of mobilizing them into the war on one side or another, on the theory that civil conflict is always good for growing an insurgency.

Fred Kaplan at Slate lays into Senator John McCain for admitting that if he is elected president, he'd quite possibly get out of Iraq, just as the Democrats he is now attacking propose.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, speaking in Australia, said he left it to Australia and the US whether to withdraw from Iraq or not. He said that he did want to stress that if the US and Australia withdrew, they should do so in such a way as to retain their authority and preserve their gains in the region.

The problem with this advice is that it is impossible to follow it. Any US withdrawal from Iraq will inevitably affect its prestige. But then, the quagmire is a daily reminder to everyone in the region of the limits of US power.

Olmert made a big deal about 'living in the region' and therefore 'knowing something of its dynamics.' I think his war on Lebanon last summer demonstrates the falsity of the latter claim, and my advice to Canberra would be pretty much to keep his track record in mind. Even in Israel, he is at 14% in the polls.

Anyway, I think the implication of his statement, despite his beating around the bush, is that he doesn't relish a US and Australian withdrawal from Iraq because he thinks it will adversely affect Israeli security. Olmert doesn't understand regional dynamics and doesn't seem to see that the longer the US and its two remaining major allies in Iraq try to stay there, the worse the situation gets, which actually is the thing that is threatening to Israel.

The Belgian Minister of Defense has demanded that Israel pay for the clean-up of the 1 million cluster bombs Olmert ordered fired into south Lebanon, mostly in the last 3 days of the war last August. There was no military purpose to this act of vicious sabotage, and it was clearly a war crime. The goal was to injure Lebanese civilians returning to South Lebanon, and, since they largely support Hizbullah, to weaken that group in the south. Kudos to Andre Flahaut for daring stand up on this issue. Israeli politician Shimon Peres has admitted that deploying the cluster bombs was a "mistake."

So if the Australians know what is good for them, they won't pay too much attention to Olmert, perhaps the most inept prime minister Israel has ever had.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dick Cheney and the Two 21st Centuries;
On Nukes, Vice President Confuses Television with Reality

I caught a clip of Dick Cheney on Sunday saying that "in the 21st century," the US could stay in Iraq and ensure that a stable government was established that could defend itself.

I was struck by his invocation of the 21st century, as though it were automatically on the side of the US, or more especially on the side of American hawks.

It is true that the 21st century is characterized by sophisticated American military weaponry. Although, sometimes maybe the equipment is too sophisticated by half, as with the Osprey.

But even though the 21st century allows the US to deploy enormous air craft carriers and to light up targets with a laser so that smart bombs can take them out, it is not a century that guarantees that Cheney will get his way in Iraq.

The 21st century is also the century of independence for the countries of the global south. It is the century that followed on wave after wave of decolonization, during which the French were shown not to be able to stay in Algeria, the British were kicked out of the Indian subcontinent, and the Dutch had to relinquish Indonesia.

The French conquered Algeria in 1830 after a spat set off when the local ruler or Dey slapped the French ambassador across the face with a horse fly swatter. Algeria was at the time probably only 10 percent urban, and lacked modern industry. My guess is that the literacy rate was 3 percent or so, and the literate were mainly in Algiers and Oran, the cities. The Algerians put up a years-long struggle against the French with rural, tribal and Sufi resources, but ultimately the French were able to prevail. They had more and better guns. But by 1956 urbanization had advanced, there was more wealth in the Arab economies, and networks of literacy, radios, etc., had been established. The Algerians were socially mobilized and could be politically mobilized by the FLN. The
French tried hard to put down the independence movement. There were 11 million Algerians, and something like 50 million French, and the French were willing to see nearly 1 million Algerians die in the struggle.

But in the end, the French failed. In part, this outcome derived from American pressure, since Washington was afraid that a prolonged and genocidal French counter-insurgency campaign would push the Algerians into the Communist camp. Europe is likely to return Eisenhower's favor with regard to the US in Iraq, since the Europeans are petrified that the US will turn the Muslim world toward al-Qaeda.

So actually the late 20th century and the 21st century aren't on the side of the US project in Iraq. Iraqis are much more socially and politically mobilized now than the Algerians were in 1960. Iraq is farther away from the US by orders of magnitude than Algeria was from France, and far less important to its public. (The French had declared Algeria to be "French soil.")

You could instance Britain in India just as easily, or for that matter the Soviets in Afghanistan. And, the contests, while uneven, are increasingly less so. India now has a multi-billion dollar software industry. Cheney is still living in a day of the white man's burden (you have to wonder whether the history of White/Native American relations in Wyoming shaped his views on these things.)

The Sunni Arab guerrillas in Iraq enjoy all the advantages of internal social and political mobilization-- sophisticated tactics, high-powered munitions, excellent networking and communications. They benefit from a vast Sunni Arab hinterland of support that includes the oil millionnaires of the Gulf (there are a lot of them and they hate to see fellow Sunnis mistreated) and the committed young professionals of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, the Sudan, and North Africa.

Against 6 million truly mobilized people, a mere 160,000 foreign troops is unlikely to prevail. The US lacks good intelligence on the guerrillas, and there is no prospect of it getting better intelligence soon. In fact, every year more Sunni Arabs hate us than the year before.

Cheney has been watching the television show "24" too much, and says he is worried about terrorists getting a nuke. That prospect is actually very, very remote. Cheney worries about high tech terrorism because he does not understand low key social mobilization. He is worried about the wrong thing. Slum kids with RPG-29s and GPS systems are the real threat to his plans.

There are two 21st centuries, that of the Osprey on which Cheney is depending, and that of the national liberation movements. There is the 21st century of the aircraft carrier and that of the suicide bomber. There is the 21st century of the Tomahawk missile and that of the religiously inspired crowd, hundreds of thousands strong, who demonstrated at Najaf last Monday (about which everyone has already, unwisely, forgotten).

It is precisely because it is the 21st century that the US is unlikely to be able to stay in Iraq in the way Cheney imagines.

When Cheney and his pals came back into office in 2001 after Clinton defeated them in 1992, the terrorism czar Richard Clarke was amazed at how hung up they still were on Iraq and threats posed by lumbering rogue states. They had not seen the rise of al-Qaeda and discounted asymmetrical struggles. Clarke said that it was as though they had been frozen in amber since 1992.

But since Cheney & Co. don't even so much as seem to know about how Nehru, Gandhi and Jinnah kicked Britain out of India, it would be more accurate to say that they have been frozen in amber since 1945. They haven't understood the social history of decolonization.

The Project for a New American Century was always a project for a new American empire, an empire of the old rickety nineteenth-century sort. Its time passed a long time ago. Peoples of the global south don't have to surrender their independence to European district commissioners anymore. They have enough biopower to forestall that fate.

Welcome to the 21st century, Mr. Cheney.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sadrists to Pull out of Cabinet
50 Killed in Spate of Bombings

The six cabinet members belonging to the Sadr Movement in Nuri al-Maliki's government are set to resign. The movement's 32 parliamentarians will continue to attend sessions of the legislature, but presumably would vote against the prime minister in a vote of no confidence. The Sadrists want the Iraqi government to insist on setting a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, and are annoyed that PM al-Maliki publicly rejected that approach recently when he was in Japan.

Sam Dagher of CSM describes the parliament as already in "disarray." Unlike a lot of the tear-jerkers written by sentimental journalists last Friday after the bombing of parliament, which suggested that everyone had united in response, Dagher gives us a more clear-eyed view of the scene:

' The heated exchanges at the meeting Friday illustrated the sectarian divide in parliament. Mustafa al-Hiti of the National Dialogue Front (NDF), the Sunni bloc to which the killed parliamentarian Mohammed Awadh belonged, spoke about a "conspiracy" by other government organs to weaken parliament and target Sunni lawmakers. Hassan al-Shimmari of the Shiite Fadhila Islamic party, which recently broke ranks with the dominant Shiite United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) bloc, demanded better security for the building and "more respect" for MPs. Nassar Al-Rubaie from the group loyal to radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr berated his colleagues for not having the courage "to hold the US occupation forces responsible for the attack," since they were chiefly in charge of the Green Zone's security.'

I now count those who would probably vote against al-Maliki if the question was called this way: The Iraqiya List of Iyad Allawi: 25; The Fadhila Party: 15; the National Dialogue Front (secularist Sunnis): 11; Sadrists: 32. That is 83. I don't know what the Iraqi Accord Front (fundamentalist Sunnis) would do. They have 44 seats. If they voted against, that would be 127. It would take 138 to cause the government to fall, which means that if the Sunnis were disgruntled enough, and if a few (11) other Shiites defected, even al-Maliki's powerful coalition of Kurds and fundamentalist Shiites could not protect him. I think the Iraq government is gradually collapsing; likely the end state is just dysfunctionality rather than anything dramatic. There was a Lebanese parliament all through the Civil War there, it just did not do anything and couldn't meet (the parliament building lay on the Green Line along which the fighting raged).

Al-Zaman writing in Arabic says that the Mahdi Army has imposed its dominance on parts of the Ghazaliya district of Baghdad, having usurped houses on Mashjar St.

The same source says that MP Hasan al-Shammari, a spokesman for the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), warned of a social explosion in Basra as a result of calls for rebellion against the local authorities. He said a plot has been uncovered to assassinate the governor of Basra province, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, and to occupy the governor's mansion. (Among Fadhila's rivals in Basra is the Sadr Movement and its Mahdi Army militia).

The Sadrists had called for a big demonstration in Basra on Monday, but other political leaders, such as PM al-Maliki, argued that it should be cancelled given the tense security situation in the city. Basrans have been buying and storing supplies in case things go bad.

Dilip Hiro at Tomdispatch.com on the potential of the Sadr Movement to eclipse Bush's surge.

With regard to political violence in Iraq on Sunday, some 50 were killed. AFP explains:

' a spate of devastating blasts killed 43 people in Shiite shopping areas. Eighteen people died when a booby-trapped car blew up outside a restaurant and a second ripped through a market in the southern Al-Shurta al-Arabaa suburb of Iraq's capital, a medic said.

As the skeleton of burnt wreckage still smouldered, a bus rigged with bombs exploded in a downtown shopping district in Karrada, killing at least 11 people and wounding 18, defence and security sources said.

In the northern and predominantly Shia district of Al-Utaifiyah, a suicide bomber boarded a minibus and blew himself up, killing six people and wounding 10, said another security official on condition of anonymity.

Soon after nightfall, another two roadside bombs exploded within minutes of each other in Karrada, killing eight people and wounding 23, a security official said. '

Reuters adds further attacks, including truck bombings in the northern city of Mosul that left 4 dead and 17 wounded.

Richard Oppel of the NYT profiles the deadly situation in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad. Not a good scene.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that according to Shaikh Ali al-Faris of the Dulaim, some Sunni Arab tribes in the north are reaching out to Shiite tribes in the south in hopes of building an Iraqi national movement to force US troops out of their country, which would transcend sectarian considerations. If any such pan-Islamic alliance ever did develop, it would become very difficult for the US to stay in Iraq. Faris maintains that attempts by the Iraqi government to bring guerrilla groups into the political process have failed, largely because of the ongoing foreign occupation, which is a deal breaker for them. He dismisses allegations by other Sheikhs that the tribes are going over to the al-Maliki government and the Americans. This is the most balanced article I've seen in al-Hayat on the role of the tribes of al-Anbar province.

James Zogby discusses the new role of Iraq as the 'Afghanistan' of the zeroes, attracting a Jihadist international from North Africa and elsewhere.

The United Nations High Commission on Human Rights is holding a conference to highlight the challenges facing the some 4 million Iraqis displaced by the aftermath of Bush's invasion.

Al-Zaman also reports that the issue of Kirkuk will be taken up at the Sharm el Sheikh conference of Iraqis and their neighbors scheduled for April 20. Residents of various ethnicities will discuss its possible fate.

As longtime readers know, I think Kirkuk province should be partitioned and the parts with high Kurdish populations be given to the Kurds. Turkmen and Arabs should have their own enclaves.

Patrick Seale on the role of the Neoconservatives and the Israeli Right in pushing the United States into the Iraq War.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

289 Iraqis Killed or Wounded in Day of Rage
Four Killed in Karbala Demonstration

McClatchy estimates that 289 Iraqis were killed or wounded in political violence on Saturday. This passage is extremely important to understanding the sentiments of the Shiites of the South, among the main victims of the violence:

' Aqeel al Khazaali, the governor of Karbala, blamed the Baghdad Security Plan for the attack inside the relatively safe southern city. Karbala is about 50 miles south of Baghdad. "The Baghdad crackdown and the tribes in Ramadi are forcing the terrorists to leave their cities," he said. "Now Karbala is under fire from terrorists, and the central government has to take the necessary steps to help us to protect the holy city." '

The destabilizing character of this assault on the city of the Prophet's Grandson is seen in that many residents blamed the elected governor for not ensuring security-- such that a big crowd rioted in protest. The crowd is said to have marched on the governor's mansion and surrounded it, demanding his resignation, and set two police cars afire. They accused the United States of having had a hand in the bombing. Nothing could be more dangerous to the position of the US in Iraq than to have it believed that it had anything to do with a massive bombing near the shrine of Imam Husayn. (It is a ridiculous allegation, but will be believed by the more disgruntled Shiites.)

Iraqi press sources say that Karbala police fired on the rioters and killed four. Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mudarrisi, the leading clerical authority in Karbala, has called for an investigation into the shootings, according to this Arabic article. He criticized the police for lack of self-discipline at a perilous time, and warned against attempt to foment Shiite on Shiite violence and social turmoil (fitnah).

Iran is offering aid to the beleaguered Shiite holy city.

There were a number of other violent incidents on Saturday, in addition to the massive early morning bombings at Karbala and near the Jadiriya bridge in Baghdad, which together left dozens dead. (Al-Hayat speculated in Arabic that the Jadiriya bomber had tried but failed to hit the bridge itself, thus further isolating one part of the capital from another.)

Police found 20 bodies in Baghdad on Saturday. Typically such corpses are victims of sectarian death squads.

Guerrillas attacked the convoy of the deputy Minister of Industry and wounded 3 of his bodyguards in the Jihad district of southwest Baghdad. The deputy minister was unscathed.

Guerrillas also attacked the home of Sunni fundamentalist member of parliament Adnad al-Dulaimi, wounding 6 of his guards. He himself is abroad, presumably in Amman.

The attacks come on the heels of the bombing of the Iraqi parliament, which in the end killed one parliamentarian, Muhammad Awadh. There were other bombing and mortar attacks in the capital.

Elsewhere in Baquba to the northeast, guerrillas deployed a roadside bomb to kill 3 policemen and wound 8 others.

Likewise, in Baiji north of the capital, a suicide car bomber killed 5 Iraqi soldiers and wounded 4 others.

In Mosul, police found 4 bodies.

Two British servicemen were killed and 5 wounded when two military helicopters collided just north of Baghdad.

Radical Salafi Jihadis of the "Islamic State in Iraq" say that they have captured 20 Ministry of Interior security men and are holding them ransom for the release of Sunni Arab women in Iraqi government custody. They claim that (Shiite) government security forces have raped a Sunni Arab woman and are also demanding the surrender of the released rapists.

In Baghdad, al-Hayat says that a group of Iraqi parliamentarians held a conference to announce the formation of the "Provisional Command of the Southern Region," comprising Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces. The politicians said that most blocs in parliament agreed with the establishment of such a provincial confederacy. [140 MPs voted to expedite this process last October.] Other blocs, such as the Sunni Arabs and the Sadrists, fear that such regional federations will lead to the breakup of the country. (Maysan's agreement is a little odd in this regard, since it is dominated by Sadrists . . .)

British troops killed 8 militiamen caught laying mines in the southern Shiite port city of Basra. Some observers reported that the slain bombers had been members of the Mahdi Army of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that there were calls after Friday prayers in Basra for a massive demonstration there on Monday. Some say it was called by the Sadr Movement as a way of rattling the governor of Basra, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, who belongs to the rival Islamic Virtue Party. Militias of the two parties clashed not long ago.

The remaining 1300 South Korean troops in northern Iraq will be withdrawn, Seoul says. Their presence in Iraq is highly controversial back home.

The United States appointed the Iyad Allawi government in June of 2004, a heavily CIA-influenced regime with a strong anti-Iran, anti-Shiite orientation. It established an Iraqi National Intelligence Service in which ex-Baathists were prominent, and they detained Shiite activists. The Shiite governments since elected do not like or trust the INIS, and so Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has developed his own, Shiite intelligence service under the Minister of State for National Security. Ned Parker of the LAT examines the consequent contradictions and potential for internal conflict.

Easy to get hurt fighting for your country. Hard to get personal attention afterwards.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

100 Dead in Bombings, Violence;
Iraq, Kurdistan, traded Barbs

After the bombings of a major bridge in Baghdad and the cafeteria of the parliament, guerrillas on Saturday detonated a car bomb at a bus station in the Shiite holy city of Karbala near the shrine of Imam Husayn. Dozens are thought to have been killed or wounded, with early reports of 56 dead and 70 wounded. Because Karbala is sacred to the sentiments of Shiites, any insult to its sanctity is likely to produce a great deal of anger and grief.

In Jadiriya south of Baghdad, a car bomb killed 35 and wounded 50.

The dead included 3 US GIs, with seven wounded. Guerrillas mounted a frontal attack on a US patrol base late Thursday

The Iraqi parliament is defiant after it was bombed on Tuesday.

Further incidents of political violence are reported by Reuters and by the McClatchy 's daily roundup.

Civilian deaths are up in the rest of the country, down slightly in Baghdad, since the mid-February beginning of the new security plan.

Iraqi politicians responded sharply to the threats of Turkish general Buyukanit to engage in hot pursuit of the Kurdish PKK into Iraqi territory. Even the Sunni Arab speaker of the parliament, Mahmud Mashhadani, warned the Turks that those who interfered in Iraq would have their hands cut off.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Detained in Two Worlds: The Taner Akçam Story

Professor Taner Akçam submitted the below text to IC and it is being published by his kind permission. The Middle East Studies Association Committee on Academic Freedom wrote a protest letter to the Turkish government concerning his case, which can be found here. Donations to the work of the Committee on Academic Freedom may be made here.

The Circle Closes In: A shameful campaign By Taner Akçam For many who challenge their government’s official version of events, slander, e-mailed threats, and other forms of harassment are all too familiar. As a former Amnesty International prisoner of conscience in Turkey, I should not have been surprised. But my recent detention at the Montreal airport—apparently on the basis of anonymous insertions in my Wikipedia biography—signals a disturbing new phase in a Turkish campaign of intimidation that has intensified since the November 2006 publication of my book, A Shameful Act: The Armenian Genocide and the Question of Turkish Responsibility.. At the invitation of the McGill University Faculty of Law and Concordia University, I flew from Minneapolis to Montreal on Friday, February 16, to lecture on A Shameful Act. As the Northwest Airlines jet touched down at Trudeau International Airport about 11:20 a.m., I assumed I had plenty of time to get to campus for the 5:00 p.m. event. Nearly four hours later, I was still at the airport, detained without any explanation. “Where are you going? Where are you staying? How many days are you staying here?” asked the courteous officer from Citizenship and Immigration Canada. “Do you have a return ticket? Do you have enough money with you?” As the border control authorities were surely aware, I travel frequently to Canada: three or four trips a year since 2000, most recently with my daughter in October 2006, just before the publication of A Shameful Act. Not once in all that time had I been singled out for interrogation. “I’m not sure myself why you need to be detained,” the officer finally admitted. “After making some phone calls, I’ll let you know.” While he was gone, my cell phone rang. The friend who had arranged to pick me up at the airport had gotten worried when I failed to emerge from Customs. I explained the situation as well as I could, asking him to inform my hosts, the Centre for Human Rights and Legal Pluralism at McGill and the Montreal Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies at Concordia, that I might be late for the lecture. The Zoryan Institute and the Armenian Students’ Associations of Montreal, co-presenters of the event, would also need to be updated. The immigration officer returned with a strange request: could I help him figure out why I was being detained? You’re the one detaining me, I was tempted to say. If you don’t know the reason, how do you expect me to know? You tell me. It was like a scene from Atom Egoyan’s Ararat. I knew better than to challenge him, giving the impression that I had something to hide. “Let me guess,” I answered. “Do you know who Hrant Dink was? Did you hear about the Armenian journalist who was killed in Istanbul?” He hadn’t. “I’m a historian,” I explained. “I work on the subject of the Armenian Genocide of 1915. There’s a very heavy campaign being waged by extreme nationalist and fascist forces in Turkey against those individuals who are critical of the events that occurred in 1915. Hrant Dink was killed because of it. The lives of people like me are in danger because of it. Orhan Pamuk, Turkey’s Nobel Laureate, couldn’t tolerate the attacks against him and had to leave the country. Many intellectuals in Turkey are now living under police protection.” The officer took notes. “In connection with these attacks there has been a serious campaign against me in the U.S.,” I went on. “I know that the groups running this campaign are given directives and are controlled by the Turkish diplomats. They spread propaganda stating that I am a member of a terrorist organization. Some rumors to that effect must have reached you.” The officer continued to write. “For your information, in 1976, while I was a master’s degree student and teaching assistant at Middle East Technical University, I was arrested for articles I had written in a journal and sentenced to eight years and nine months in prison. I later escaped to Germany, where I became a citizen. The Turkish criminal statute that was the basis for my prosecution, together with similar laws, was repealed in 1991. I travel to Turkey freely now and went there most recently for Hrant Dink’s funeral.” The officer finished his notes. “I’m sorry, but I have to make some more phone calls,” he said, and left. My cell phone rang again. It was McGill legal scholar Payam Akhavan, an authority on human rights and genocide, who was to have introduced my lecture. Apologizing for my situation, Prof. Akhavan let me know that he’d contacted the offices of Canadian Minister of Public Safety Stockwell Day and Secretary of State for Multiculturalism and Canadian Identity Jason Kenney. Bishop Bagrat Galstanian, Primate of the Diocese of the Armenian Church of Canada, also called to confirm that he too had been in touch with Secretary Kenney’s office. I was going to be released. About 3:30 p.m. the officer returned with a special one-week visa. Upon my insistence that I had a right to know exactly why I had been detained, he showed me a sheet of paper with my photograph on top and a short block of text, in English, below. I recognized the page at once. The photo was a still from the 2005 documentary Armenian Genocide: 90 Years Later, a co-production of the University of Minnesota Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies and Twin Cities Public Television. A series of outtakes from the film, originally posted on the CHGS website, could be found on the popular Internet video site YouTube and elsewhere in cyberspace. The still photo and the text beneath it comprised my biography in the English-language edition of Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia which anyone in the world can modify at any time. For the last year—-most recently on Christmas Eve, 2006-—my Wikipedia biography had been persistently vandalized by anonymous “contributors” intent on labeling me as a terrorist. The same allegations had been repeatedly scrawled, like gangland graffiti, as “customer reviews” of A Shameful Act and my other books at www.Amazon.com. It was unlikely, to say the least, that a Canadian immigration officer found out that I was coming to Montreal, took the sole initiative to research my identity on the Internet, discovered the archived Christmas Eve version of my Wikipedia biography, printed it out seven weeks later on February 16, and showed it to me—voila! —as a result. The fact was that my upcoming lecture had been publicized well in advance in the Canadian print and broadcast media. An announcement had even been inserted in Wikipedia five days before my arrival. Moreover, two Turkish-American websites hostile to my work—the 500-page Tall Armenian Tale and the 19,000-member Turkish Forum listserv—had been hinting for months that my “terrorist” activities ought to be of interest to American immigration authorities. It seemed far more likely that one or more individuals had seized the opportunity to denounce me to the Canadians. Although I was forced to cancel two radio interviews, I made it to the McGill campus in time to lecture on A Shameful Act. On Sunday, February 18, before boarding my return flight to Minneapolis, I was detained for another hour. It was obvious that the American customs and border authorities knew what had happened at the adjacent offices on the Canadian side. “Mr. Akçam,” I was gently advised, “if you don’t retain an attorney and correct this issue, every entry and exit from the country is going to be problematic. We recommend that you do not travel in the meantime and that you try to get this information removed from your customs dossier.” The well-meaning American customs official could hardly have known the extent of the problem. Wikipedia and Amazon are but two examples. Allegations against me, posted mainly by the Assembly of Turkish American Associations (ATAA), Turkish Forum, and Tall Armenian Tale, have been copy-pasted and recycled throughout innumerable websites and e-groups ever since I arrived in America. By now, for example, my name in close proximity to the English word “terrorist” turns up in well over 10,000 web pages. The first salvo in this campaign came in response to the English translation of my essay, “The Genocide of the Armenians and the Silence of the Turks.” In a sensational March 19, 2001, commentary from the ATAA Turkish Times (“From Terrorism to Armenian Propagandist: The Taner Akçam Story”), one Mustafa Artun introduced me to Turkish-Americans as a mastermind of terrorist violence, including the assassinations of American and NATO military personnel. Posted at the ATAA Web site in April 2001 and circulated via Turkish Forum in December 2001 and June 2003—my protests notwithstanding— “The Taner Akçam Story” ended up by March 2004 at Tall Armenian Tale next to a photo of a PKK member, which was captioned as “a younger Taner Akçam, from www.PKK.org.” Three years later, the photo has been updated, but Artun’s commentary remains, a frequently cited resource for copy-pasters. As further evidence of my “terrorist” past, Tall Armenian Tale posted a detailed chronology related to incidents of arrest, on dates that even I can’t remember, for leafleting and postering in my student movement days. Whoever provided this information failed to note, however, that people were frequently arrested for such activities even after official permission had been obtained. An entire nine-page section of Tall Armenian Tale is now dedicated to vilifying me and my work, and well over 200 pages of that denialist site mention my name. Next came an announcement from Turkish Forum: “For the attention of friends in Minnesota…. Taner Akçam has started working in America…. It is expected that the conferences about so called Genocide will increase in and around Minnesota. Please follow the Armenian (Taner Akçam’s) activities very closely.” My contact information at home and at work was conveniently provided “in case people would like to send their ‘greetings’ to this traitor.” Soon enough, harassing e-mails were sent anonymously to my employer, the University of Minnesota, and to me personally. A profile of the Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies and its director, my colleague Stephen Feinstein, was added to Tall Armenian Tale. With the publication of A Shameful Act, the circle began to close in. On November 1, 2006, the City University of New York Center for the Humanities organized a gathering at the CUNY Graduate Center to introduce my book. Before I rose to speak, unauthorized leaflets bearing an assault rifle, skull, and the communist hammer and sickle were distributed in the hall. In rhetoric obviously inspired by Mustafa Artun’s commentary, I was labeled as a “former terrorist leader” and a fanatic enemy of America who had organized “attacks against the United States” and was “responsible for the death of American citizens.” As soon as I finished my lecture, a pack of some 15 to 20 individuals, who had strategically positioned themselves in small groups throughout the hall, tried to break up the meeting. Brandishing pictures of corpses (either Muslims killed by revenge-seeking Armenians in 1919 or Kurdish victims of Iraqi gas attacks on the town of Halabja in 1988), they loudly demanded to know why I had not lectured on the deaths of “a million Muslims.” Shouting and swearing in Turkish and English, they completely disrupted the discussion in the lecture hall and the book-signing session nearby. I was verbally assaulted as a “terrorist-communist” and lashed with the vilest Turkish profanities. Two individuals dogged my footsteps from the podium to the elevator doors, howling, “We are the soldiers of Alparslan Türke?!”(A Turkish politician who was arrested in 1944 for spreading Nazi propaganda, Türke? later founded the Nationalist Movement Party.) The security guards surrounding me had to intervene when I was physically attacked. A month later, on December 4, I was scheduled to speak at another New York event, a symposium at Yeshiva University’s Cardozo School of Law on “Denying Genocide: Law, Identity and Historical Memory in the Face of Mass Atrocity.” As if to illustrate this very theme, a 4,400-word letter signed by Turkish Forum’s Ibrahim Kurtulus “on behalf of Dr. Ata Erim the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Federation of Turkish American Association, FTAA and Dr. Kaya Buyukataman the President of Turkish Forum” was sent to the law school dean and faculty three weeks in advance, urging the cancellation of the symposium and labeling me as “a propagandistic tool of the Armenians.” Two days later, on November 19, Turkish Forum published an 800-word letter to the dean from Turkish-American activist Ergun Kirlikovali, who characterized me as “a convicted terrorist in Turkey... one of the leaders of an armed and clandestine group advocating a Marxist-Leninist takeover of Turkish Republic caught red-handed in a bombing plot in late 1970s... part of a group which bombed the limousine of the American ambassador Comer in Ankara in 1969... He is in America probably illegally.” Gusan Yedic of Turkish Forum posted further “terrorist” allegations about me on November 24, with this sarcastic admonition: “The friends who are going to attend the concert of Taner Akçam and his orchestra at Yeshiva University are earnestly requested to behave in a gentlemanly manner. Attendees are obliged to follow black-tie party rules.” On November 30, Turkish Forum mobilized an e-mail campaign against the “Taner Akçam conference.” Members were also urged to attend the symposium and a “pre-meeting for Turks,” coordinated by Ibrahim Kurtulus. I forwarded this information to the event organizers with a request that appropriate precautions be taken. I let them know that if they were going to allow intruders from Turkish Forum to leaflet my presentation and disrupt the symposium, I wasn’t going to participate. Yeshiva was concerned. An organizer who had attended the CUNY gathering on November 1 assured me that security would be increased. As a pre-emptive step, the event committee informed the Turkish Consulate that the law school symposium was intended to be general in scope, comparative and scholarly in approach, and not focused on either Taner Akçam or Turkey. They made it clear that any disruption similar to the CUNY incident would not put Turkey in a favorable light. A Turkish consular official disavowed any government involvement in the disruption at CUNY, which he attributed to “the actions of civilians” in grassroots organizations. There was nothing the Consulate could do about them, he said. The organizers stressed that they intended to take extra security precautions and that the Consulate ought to think hard about what would happen if the symposium was invaded and its participants attacked. Just one day before the symposium there was another phone conversation between the Turkish consular official and the organizers. He assured them that no disruption would take place and only two or three Turkish representatives would attend. The government kept its word. The symposium was peaceful and no leaflets were distributed. The Turkish consular official attended with ATAA President-elect Gunay Evinch, both of whom were scrupulously polite. It was as though three intense weeks of mobilization had never happened. For many Turkish intellectuals, freedom of speech has become a struggle in North America as well as in our native country. What is happening to me now could happen to any scholar who dissents from the official state version of history. Since my return from Montreal, the Canadian immigration authorities have refused to say exactly why I was detained. As a result, I am unable to face my accusers or examine whatever “evidence” may be filed against me. Although I have formally requested access both to my Canadian and American dossiers—a process that could take months—I have had to cancel all international appearances. Meanwhile, my Wikipedia biography and Amazon book pages remain open to malicious insertions at any time. Nevertheless, my American book tour continues under tightened security. Although it is stressful and very sad to have to lecture under police protection, I have no intention of canceling any of my domestic appearances. After all, the United States is not the Republic of Turkey. The Turkish authorities whether directly or through their grassroots agents have no right to harass scholars exercising their academic freedom of speech at American universities. Throughout my life I have learned in unforgettable ways the worth of such freedom, and I intend to use it at every opportunity. Taner Akçam – Turkish intellectual, professor at the University of Minnesota, and the author of A Shameful Act: The Armenian Genocide and the Question of Turkish Responsibility – recently became the subject of a formal complaint under Turkey’s Penal Code Article 301: the same “crime” of “insulting Turkishness” for which Hrant Dink was tried and found guilty by the Turkish judiciary. March 17, 2007

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Parliament Bomber was Probably Bodyguard;
Turkey Threatens to Invade Iraq;
Wolfowitz Promotes Girlfriend

The bombing of the cafeteria in the Iraqi parliament on Thursday was likely the work of a bodyguard of one of the members of parliament. Who exactly was killed and wounded among the parliamentarians has been a matter of dispute, as Iraqslogger points out in a good overview. MP Muhammad Awadh of the National Dialogue Front, a secular-leaning Sunni Arab list, is the one on which the various reports agree. At least one other MP was killed, either a Kurd or a Shiite. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that 3 MPs died, and says 30 persons were wounded, some seriously. It identifies the dead as Awadh, along with Taha al-Lahibi of the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front and Niyami al-Miya'i of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Wire services said that between 10 and 14 MPs were wounded, said to include several members of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance and more Kurds.

Survivors were said to be bloodied and dusty, and to be flicking human body parts off their suits. A video of the bombing is here, courtesy al-Hurra.

There was this spate of headlines about the Iraq parliament bombing that said "Bush condemns Bombing of Iraq Parliament." Why do American journalists do that? Is that really news? Did anyone entertain some doubt as to whether he would be pleased? In my view it is just a way for the White House to influence the news cycle and put a spin on the news (now it is not about how terrible the bombing was, but about Bush's disapproval). I'm not complaining about mentioning the condemnation way down in the article, the way the LA Times did. I mean where you make it the lede and headline. It is this kowtowing by editors to Karl "Benedict Arnold" Rove's spin machine that got us into this mess.

In Middle Eastern autocracies like Syria, the television news will show long clips of the president sitting with some visitor, with the sound off but some music in the background. It seems to go on forever. Stories about Bush's comments on an event like the parliament bombing are the American equivalent of those toadying, lingering camera caresses. Bush is responsible for everything that happens in Iraq, because he created this situation with his greed and ineptitude. If you were going to do a story on his reaction to a bombing in the Green Zone, it should be about how he didn't do enough to stop it. Or, you could ask why he keeps suggesting that there is a moral derangement in the bombers, which explains everything. The bombers aren't just immoral, they are using kamikaze tactics in a political cause (ending the US military presence in their country and dislodging the government set up under US auspices). Diverting attention from their politics to their immorality is a way for Bush to deny that his own political project in Iraq provoked this response.

Just to get a flavor of how "so and so condemns" stories really function, check out "Iranian FM spokeman strongly comdemns bombing Iraqi parliament". Surely Tehran's condemnation is as consequential as Washington's? And surely it is evidence against the silly US allegation of Iranian aid to Sunni Arab guerrillas? (For the real reasons for these absurd allegations coming from Washington, see John Pilger today.)

Al-Hayat also points out that the Sarrafiya Bridge, which was destroyed by a truck bombing on Thursday, had been a symbol of the cosmopolitan character of the capital. It was built by the British in the time of the monarchy (which ended in revolution in 1958). [Update: Al-Hayat was wrong in placing the bridge between Sunni and Shiite neighborhoods; I regret transmitting the error.]

Parliament speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani, a fundamentalist Sunni, expressed suspicions that the bridge was taken out to isolate the Sunnis of Karkh and Rusafa from one another.

Former Deputy Secretary of Defense and current head of the World Bank, Paul Wolfowitz is personally corrupt. He was corrupt when he tried to turn Iraq over to Ahmad Chalabi, who had been convicted of embezzling $300 million from his own bank. He was corrupt when he pushed the Iraq War with a bunch of phony arguments and the most disgusting campaigns of vilification against anyone who disagreed with him. And he was corrupt when he arranged for his girlfriend, Shaha Riza,* to get enormous wage increases.

Wolfowitz should be fired. After what he did to my country, he has no business in public office, anyway. But he is also just corrupt.

Bush has liberated Salih Rabi'a, all right-- from his 3 children, his wife, and probably to some extent his sanity.

Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski points out that the Bush administration is paralyzed by the Iraq War; that Bush rules by instilling fear in the public; that Bush intends to dump the problem in the lap of the next president; that the Dems probably can't stop him from doing just that; and that if Bush drags us into a war with Iran, it will tie down the US for 20 years and cripple US global leadership for a generation. Yup, Zbig has nailed it.

Former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke condemned the Bush administration for being stingy about letting Iraqis come to the US, whose lives had been put in danger because they worked for the Americans and who have been forced out of Iraq.

The powerful Turkish General Yasar Buyukanit said Thursday that Turkish forces needed to go into northern Iraq after Kurdish PKK guerrillas he believes are being given safe haven there. He said he had not yet submitted a request to parliament for authorization. The Turkish-Iraqi border is now a tinderbox. This is the other shoe in the Iraq conflict.

Buyukanit's comments probably come in response to a recent provocative interview given by Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani.

Buyukanit also slammed US President George W. Bush implicitly, blaming the US for spoiling Barzani: “He [Mr Barzani] is at a very low level and I look to the one who enables him to speak so, who enables the division of Iraq, which is the greatest threat to the region.”

Ben Lando of UPI writes the really important story on Iraq-- the insecurity in Basra and its potential impact on the government in Baghdad. I am quoted:

' Also last week, British troops stationed in the area -- and on the verge of being withdrawn from the country -- were ambushed. Six were killed. Cole said if the British do leave, security in Basra is left to U.S. or Iraqi troops. Cole said he doubts they are up to the job.

"Then Basra could go completely out of control," Cole said. "Security in Basra is shaky. That to the extent it exists at all it's being provided by the British. Were the British to withdraw most of their troops by December under the new Labor (Party) prime minister, it's hard to see how security would be maintained.

"And if it's not maintained then it becomes more and more difficult to export petroleum through Basra and make sure the government actually gets any of the receipts," Cole said. "That would be the end of the Iraqi government." '

The Islamic Army of Iraq has split from the Islamic State in Iraq, which claims to be "al-Qaeda." In guerrilla wars, where you have a lot of guerrilla cells, there are often such splits and red on red violence. This was common in Afghanistan, too. Personally, I doubt it means much for the war. Members of both groups may be feuding, but they still hate the Americans more than they hate each other.

--------------

*I was told by someone somewhere that Shaha Riza's mother had been an Iraqi expatriate from a family that had settled in Tunis. I cannot now verify that and it isn't in the standard internet biographies of her. I cannot even remember how I came into this piece of information. Until someone can nail it down, I retract.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Breaking News: Iraqi Parliament Cafeteria Bombed

A suicide bomber wearing a bomb vest managed to get into a cafeteria in the parliament building in the fortress-like Green Zone in downtown Baghdad and to detonate his payload. He killed 8 persons and wounded 20, among them two members of parliament. They included an MP from the secular Sunni National Dialogue Front (11 seats) and another from the Kurdistan Alliance.

John McCain's silliness about how safe it is to walk around Baghdad should be decisively put to rest by this incident. Security is clearly getting worse in Iraq, not better. Although the Green Zone has frequently taken mortar fire, bombings have been extremely rare (one previous successful one?). It could only have happened if persons who look to the Americans as though they are loyal allies were actually smuggling in components and working for the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement.

Kyra Phillips is saying that a lot of security checking coming into the Green Zone has been turned over to the Iraqis or over to private security firms. "Someone is obviously not doing their job," she observed.

The oddest thing is that I hardly saw anything about this on American cable television news Thursday morning. (At noon, of course, CNN allows one hour of a feed from the adult news, CNN International, and it did a good job.) They had some small town murder mystery again, or stories about white shock jocks being shocking and racist (as if the owners of the cable television news weren't the ones purveying white shock jocks with racist views to the world). It is tragic that corporate media get away with using public resources to divert the attention of the people from what is important and to baby sit them with pablum.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bridge Damaged, 9 dead in Truck Bombing;
Sadrists, Sunni Accord Front threaten withdrawal from Iraqi Government; Dodd, Obama Critique McCain

Thursday morning in Baghdad, a truck bomb detonated on the Sarafiya bridge in Baghdad. Early reports gave the casualty toll as 9 dead, but observers said that five or six cars were sent into the river and likely the number of fatalities would rise. Aljazeera is saying that there were 20 passengers in the cars. The bridge is a major artery linking east and west Baghdad.

Two more US troops were announced killed on Wednesday, with several more wounded.

Reuters reports that police found 11 bodies in Baghdad on Wednesday, and 9 in Mosul. There were several bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad.


British troops fought an intense gun battle with Shiite militiamen in a rough neighborhood of Basra, beginning on Tuesday, which left between 10 and 20 militiamen dead. I presume these are Mahdi Army, though it isn't clear from the report in the Telegraph. There are several Shiite militias in Basra, and some Marsh Arab tribes function as militias or mafias.

The Iraq Islamic Army, a major Sunni Arab guerrilla group, says that it is willing to parlay with the Americans on three conditions: The US Congress must announce that the US will leave Iraq; the Sunni Arab resistance must be recognized as a legitimate party in the dispute; and the talks must be sponsored by Russia, Turkey or the European Union. The IIA excludes ex-Baathists from its ranks and has recently been fighting Salafi extremists who call themselves "al-Qaeda," but says that it wants to unite the Sunni Arab resistance.

Sunni and Shiite guerrillas are continuing to engage in ethnic cleansing of neighborhoods in Baghdad despite the increase in the number of US and Iraqi troops there.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has issued a report saying that the situation for Iraqi civilians is bad and getting worse, and that there has been no tangible improvement for them in Baghdad. It says that thousands of bodies are at morgues throughout the country because families do not know they are there or are afraid to go pick them up. Mothers keep their children at home until the dead bodies are collected from the street so they won't see them.

The Iraq War has spurred terrorism and provided a training ground for al-Qaeda, according to a new British report.

The US military spokesman Major General William Caldwell argued on Wednesday that Iran is giving military aid to Sunni guerrillas in Iraq. Since the Sunni guerrillas are killing and blowing up Shiites every day, and since Iran is closely allied with the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and its Badr Corps paramilitary, the leaders of which have repeatedly been targeted by Sunni guerrillas. That Iran is trying to kill its own guys in Iraq is flatly implausible. Caldwell can come out and say it every day, and I will come out here and say it is implausible every day. Anti-Iranian sentiments are a key characteristic of the Sunni Arab guerrillas.

Iranian arms may be being smuggled into Iraq, but it is unlikely that the government is doing the smuggling, or that they are more important than all the other arms that are being smuggled into Iraq from a variety of neighbors. So the US military might well find Sunni guerrillas with Iranian arms.

We also know that some Sunni guerrillas want to foment a war between the US and Iran. So captured Sunni guerrillas may be feeding interrogators this line that they are getting help from Iran, to make trouble. That is, whatever the US military is finding in the way of evidence for this absurd allegation can be explained in some other plausible way, so as to avoid our having to come to conclusions that make no sense whatsoever. I am hoping that journalists covering the war will treat these allegations with the profound skepticism they deserve.

The easy way for the US military not to be inconvenienced by arms smuggling into Iraq from neighboring countries is for it to leave Iraq.

These ridiculous allegations against Iran of supporting Baathists and Salafis in Iraq are probably just pressure tactics. The Iranians want the US to release five diplomats who had been invited to Irbil by Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani, but who were kidnapped by the Bush administration. The US maintains that they are intelligence field officers. Iran is threatening not to attend the upcoming Sharm el Sheikh conference on Iraq if their men are not released.

The US is refusing to release the Iranian personnel.

Young nationalist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr issued a communique on Wednesday sharply rebuking Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for saying in Japan that there was no need for a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops in Iraq.

Tens or hundreds of thousands of protesters assembled in the holy city of Najaf on Monday, despite the dangers of traveling in Iraq, to protest the continued US military presence in the country, answering Muqtada's earlier call. Monday was the fourth anniversary of the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime. Muqtada said in his statement that his parliamentarians are considering boycotting the al-Maliki government.

The 32 Sadrist deputies engaged in such a boycott in November and December (to protest al-Maliki's meeting in Jordan with George W. Bush), making it difficult or impossible for parliament to get a quorum. (Many of the parliamentarians actually live abroad, whereas the Sadrists are in town, so their absence is crucial). A Sadrist boycott of the al-Maliki government, coupled with the defection of the Islamic Virtue Party from his coalition, could make it difficult for parliament to function, and could stop the passage of the proposed petroleum investment bill. The Bush administration appears privately to have told al-Maliki that passage of that bill by June is a benchmark on which his government will be judged.

Al-Zaman writes in Arabic that its sources say that a Sadrist withdrawal is unlikely. It says that the Sadr Movement is now made up of three major groups: Sadrists who have become loyal to al-Maliki; the parliamentarians; and the Mahdi Army, which is loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr.

The Iraqi Accord Front, a coalition of Sunni Arab fundamentalists with 44 seats in parliament, may withdraw from the political process, as well. Several of its MPs have been targeted for raids by the US military and have been tied to Sunni guerrilla groups. Others have abruptly fled the country without filing the requisite paperwork. MP Khalaf Ulyan, one of 3 leaders of the Front, had his house raided recently and the US alleged it found weapons there. He is abroad.

If the Sunni Arabs in parliament withdraw, and the Sadrists withdraw, that really could spell the end of any quorum and produce [an even more] complete legislative gridlock. Al-Zaman is saying that the Iraqi Islamic Party, one of the three members of the IAF coalition, has indicated that it would not depart from the political process.

Prime Minister al-Maliki was forced to reaffirm that foreign policy is the prerogative of the Baghdad government, in the face of threats and pronouncements of Kurdistan Regional Government president Massoud Barzani on April 6. Ankara is enraged by Barzani's threats to cause trouble in Diyarbakr if Turkey interferes in the Kirkuk issue.

The US military in Iraq appears to have killed an awful lot of Iraqi civilians out of being trigger happy. I mean, you sympathize in a guerrilla war situation with troops being suspicious even of civilians, but a schoolboy with a bookbag?

48 percent of adult respondents in a recent poll said that Bush should sign the appropriations bill that contains language on setting a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq.

43% said that they thought Bush should veto the bill.

Barack Obama criticized John McCain on Wednesday, suggesting that the current surge in the number of US troops will not resolve Iraq's civil war.

Senator Chris Dodd, a Democratic presidential candidate, called for more diplomacy on Iraq and criticized the idea that an increase of troops can succeed. He critiqued the position of John McCain in support of a "surge," as a military solution to the problem.

The retired generals seem implicitly to agree with Obama and Dodd since they are voting with their feet. Bush cannot so far sign any of them up to be a "war czar" to oversee the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars. Mostly, they have figured out that Dick Cheney actually calls the shots on war policy, and that Cheney is inflexible and not living in the same dimension as the rest of us. Having responsibility for two wars with no actual authority to make policy would be an unenviable position to be in. News that SecDef Robert Gates wanted to close down Guantanamo and stop the torture, and was over-ruled by Cheney, probably gave these candidates pause.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

CAF Letter on the Finkelstein Case

Committee on Academic Freedom, Middle East Studies Association, Letter on the Finkelstein Case:

10 April 2007 The Rev. Dennis H. Holtschneider, C.M., Ed.D. President De Paul University 1 E. Jackson Chicago, Illinois 60604 Fax: 312-362-7577 Dear Father Holtschneider: I write on behalf of the Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA) and its Committee on Academic Freedom to express our concern regarding the tenure case of Professor Norman Finkelstein. We fear that the generally accepted academic procedures which should have been used to evaluate Professor Finkelstein's scholarship, and thus his qualifications for promotion to tenure, may have been unduly politicized. We are particularly concerned that Professor Finkelstein has apparently been subjected to a campaign waged by an influential senior scholar outside his field from another university, which is designed to undermine his candidacy for tenure, on ideological rather than scholarly grounds. The Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA) was founded in 1966 to promote scholarship and teaching on the Middle East and North Africa. The preeminent organization in the field, the Association publishes the International Journal of Middle East Studies and has more than 2700 members worldwide. MESA is committed to ensuring academic freedom and freedom of expression, both within the region and in connection with the study of the region in North America and elsewhere. We recognize that some people may regard Professor Finkelstein's scholarship as controversial. He has certainly engaged in some of the most charged debates about the history and historiography of the Arab-Israeli conflict and other topics. In the context of Professor Finkelstein's interventions in these debates he has had several highly publicized exchanges with Professor Alan Dershowitz of the Harvard University Law School, whose book The Case for Israel (Wiley, 2003) Professor Finkelstein has subjected to scathing criticism on a variety of grounds. According to Inside Higher Ed as well as a widely disseminated report by Professor Jon Wiener in The Nation, Professor Dershowitz went to extraordinary lengths to prevent the publication of Professor Finkelstein's critique Beyond Chutzpah: On the Misuse of AntiSemitism and the Abuse of History (University of California Press, 2004).[1] Those reports indicate that Professor Dershowitz authorized what Professor Wiener described as "threatening letters" to the counsel, to the university regents, to the university provost, to seventeen directors of the press and to nineteen members of the press's faculty editorial committee. Professor Dershowitz also appealed to the governor of California to stop the publication of the book. Fortunately, both the University of California Press and the governor's office defended the principle of academic freedom in this case and refused to stop the publication of Professor Finkelstein's book. According to a Chronicle of Higher Education story dated 5 April 2007, Professor Dershowitz has admitted to sending a dossier critical of Professor Finkelstein to members of DePaul's Law School and of its political science department. We regard this blatant and entirely unsolicited intervention in a tenure case by a very well-known faculty member from a different university as unacceptable. We fear that it may have unduly politicized and/or prejudiced your university's consideration of Professor Finkelstein's candidacy for tenure. This intervention is particularly distressing because it comes at a time when we have witnessed other instances of efforts by individuals or organizations to influence hiring, tenure or promotion decisions, based not on the candidate's scholarship but rather on his or her political views, real or imputed. We also note that a memorandum dated 22 March 2007 and written by Chuck Suchar, the Dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at DePaul University, to the University Board on Tenure and Promotion seems to conflate the tone of Professor Finkelstein's work with the substance of his scholarship. We would like to remind you that the American Association of University Professors clearly stipulates that scholars are to be evaluated strictly on the basis of their scholarship's academic merit and their teaching –not on their collegiality, nor on whether some may deem their scholarly work too controversial. In this regard we are also concerned that Dean Suchar's memorandum seems to judge Professor Finkelstein on the basis of his alleged failure to conform to what the dean describes as the "Vincentian value of ‘personalism,'" which is not generally accepted as a proper criterion for promotion to tenure. We understand that Professor Finkelstein's tenure evaluation is not yet concluded. We urge you and your colleagues to ensure that that evaluation henceforth proceeds in a manner that conforms to generally accepted procedures, such that Professor Finkelstein is evaluated solely on the basis of his scholarship, his teaching, and his service to the DePaul community and to the academic fields in which he works. Sincerely, Zachary Lockman MESA President Notes 1.Inside Higher Ed; The Nation.

More on this controversy from The New York Times, which mentions our letter.

Please consider donating to the Academic Freedom Fund of the Middle East Studies Association. The academic process, especially in Middle East lines, has been corrupted at a number of prominent universities through lobbying by powerful and wealthy individuals who wish to impose a kind of private McCarthyism, dictating what can and cannot be said on certain issues without regard to academic evidence and analysis. Your contributions can help grow this fund to the point where we can hire a full-time staffer and work to make a real difference.

I'd like to enter a special plea for other bloggers and diarists who care about this issue to also feature the above link to the CAF donations page.

The committee is profiled here, and past letters on infringements against academic freedom, in the Middle East and in North America are available here.
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3 US Troops Killed, 16 Wounded
19 Iraqis Dead, 33 Wounded in Muqdadiya Bombing

The wire services reported at least 55 killed in political violence in Iraq on Tuesday, with hundreds wounded.

Guerrillas detonated a car bomb near Baghdad University in the south of the capital, killing 5 persons and wounding 11.

Guerrillas deployed a roadside bomb to kill 3 US troops on Monday, wounding a fourth.

Gun battles in central Baghdad left scores wounded, including 15 US troops. The clashes in two Sunni Arab neighborhoods lasted all day and left 20 guerrillas dead. All but three of the injured US troops were able to return to duty fairly quickly.

In Muqdadiya northeast of Baghdad, a woman detonated her belt bomb amidst a crowd of applicants for work as policemen outside a police station, killing 19 and wounding at least 33.

Police found three bodies in Mosul and two near Kirkuk-- victims of sectarian hatred.

Discontent among Iraq's Shiites with the situation in their country is now rife, even though they had initially been overjoyed at the fall of Saddam.

Pelosi and Lantos are thinking seriously of trying to make a trip to Iran, according to the SF Chronicle. I still cannot entirely figure out where all this diplomacy is coming from among the AIPAC Democrats. But it is obviously a complete revolt against the Neoconservative philosophy, wherein the natural thing would be to try to overthrow the Iranian government, not dicker with it.

Tom Engelhardt on how the Bush administration destabilized the Arc of Instability.

Gary Kamiya at Salon.com on "Why the Media Failed" in the run-up to the Iraq War. The sad thing is, I doubt the situation would be much different today. The information system in the US is corrupt. Many reporters I know in the corporate media deeply resent their bosses and editors, whom they often view as rightwing hacks.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

White and Carapico re: Cole, "How to Get out of Iraq"

My piece in The Nation on "How to Get out of Iraq" is generating some good discussion on an email list to which I subscribe. With their permission, I am sharing below comments of two seasoned observers of the Middle East.

Sheila Carapico writes:

Let me second Juan Cole's central point, which I would reword as follows: instead of the surge vs. unilateral withdrawal debate there needs to be a search for a rational, negotiated or multilaterally monitored disengagement of US troops. I realize it's a tall order -- but not necessarily more daunting than a military solution. To think about this we need to stop envisioning battlefield scenarios and start imagining ceasefire scenarios, or violence-reduction strategies. And we need to stop acting as if the future of Iraq were an either-or decision to be made in Washington between Democrats and Republicans. It's going to involve Iran, especially, and Syria, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey, Jordan, Kuwait, and other countries in the region, and it's likely to be connected to the larger Arab-Israeli conundrum. A plan for peace in Iraq could really use the the active collaboration of Europe, Russia, and China, too. I wonder whether Pelosi's visit to Damascus, along with however those British detainees were released, indicates an attenuation of the "Syria-is-naughty, Iran-is-naughty, so we are not speaking to them" line. I am not sure of this, since by many accounts the Speaker went bearing a message from Israel, and not from Washington. But perhaps she brought something home. There are a vast array of alternatives between pacification by force and a unilateral pull-out (Gaza, anyone?) Let's try to think of some. Remember cease-fires, before they were vilified this summer by Rice and Bolton? Is there no one in the world with the moral authority to at least call for all sides to halt the bloodshed, if only for a day? The civil wars in Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Lebanon didn't only wear themselves out, there were talks leading to negotiations that eventually, if imperfectly, led to a laying down of arms of principle factions. Can anyone imagine scenarios for violence abatement? If a reduction in the American use of force can only make matters worse, as the consensus seems to hold, then are there visions for how, possibly, some other kind of policing or peace-making or financial incentives (or poetry readings?) might mitigate those outcomes? This discussion also raised anew the question of what we are doing in Iraq, now. Are we there to protect the Kurds? To prevent full-scale ethnic cleansing? Or to preserve the al-Maliki government (which, tautologically, asks us to remain there for that purpose)? or to secure an American strategic presence? or to get a the oil legislation passed? If we can specify specific goals, then policy debates can be reformulated: what would it take to protect the Kurds, from Turkey or from Iraqi elements? Would the current Iraqi government really survive an American departure? What would it take to secure an indefinate SoFA, if that is our minimal national interest, that would maintain bases but get troops out of the cities? What incentives might Iran be offered to support Shia peacemakers? Sheila Carapico University of Richmond

With regard to the US and the Kurds in Iraq, Wayne White writes:

I couldn't agree more that the Kurds probably do not need U.S. protection as the situation now stands. And I realize that a post-U.S. withdrawal Iraq, viewed from today's perspective is a rather murky problem to explore analytically, with various possible outcomes (and sub-plots within) which will likely elude the predictions many of us are groping toward at this time, including those of yours truly. However, it is quite possible that the removal of U.S. and other Coalition troops would allow the Kurds to deal with their territorial claims beyond their current holdings as they please. Consequently, there is a distinct possibility that the Pershmerga (with the assistance of predominantly Kurdish units of the Iraqi security forces) would move to seize control of a number of mixed areas currently beyond what has been generally recognized as the Kurdish autonomous region. Some claims talked about have extended deeply into Diyala Governorate in the south and as distant as Tel Afar to the west. Meanwhile, in the center of the country, Shi'a elements (also backed by many units of the Iraqi security forces) would likely move similarly, resuming their removal of Sunni Arabs from various remaining neighborhoods of the greater Baghdad area and some mixed areas beyond, one way or another. These are ugly scenarios, for sure. Such actions would be the primary trigger for a post-U.S. withdrawal civil war--with violence much worse than witnessed to date. I agree very much with Juan that staying on in Iraq at this late stage of the game can probably achieve little more than the loss of more American lives & money, but I have no illusions about what might well happen afterward. The only factor that would lie beyond anyone's ability to predict is the intensity of that struggle. Indeed, many of those favoring the continued presence of substantial U.S. combat forces for several more years use such potentially dire scenarios as a justification for remaining in Iraq. However, they themselves are making a highly questionable assumption: that by staying on, extending the time-line of our armed presence in Iraq, post-withdrawal outcomes would be any prettier. One point on the Pershmerga. Although well-organized, let us not forget that before the 2003 war, Peshmerga of Jalal Talabani's Popular Union of Kurdistan (PUK) were unable to remove the small pocket inside Iraq along the Iranian border containing only a few hundred fanatical jihadists of the Ansar al-Islam, despite at least two attempts to do so. Peshmerga would likely run into far more numerous Sunni Arab jihadists and insurgents in a far larger struggle for substantial real estate in the north, many willing to die (a rough translation of the word Peshmerga, ironically) if necessary, in an attempt to resist any Kurdish efforts to take over significant, additional stretches of territory. Wayne White Middle East Institute Middle East Policy Council Washington, DC

Thanks also to Jeff Severns Guntzel for his comments on the plan.
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Tens of Thousands in Najaf Demand US Departure from Iraq

Tens of thousands of followers of young Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr rallied in the Shiite holy city of Najaf south of Baghdad on Monday, protesting the continued presence of US troops in Iraq. They burned US flags and held up posters saying, "America will fall, will fall." Chillingly, some of the demonstrators appeared to be soldiers in the Iraqi army. Although the Iraqi government tried to spin the demonstration as a celebration of the fall of Saddam, it was in fact an ironic denunciation of the US for not withdrawing from Iraq after the demise of the Baath. Sadr City residents in Baghdad also supported the demonstration by flying Iraqi flags. Iraqi authorities appear to have been terrified of Muqtada's street power, and they imposed a curfew on the capital.

A statement by Muqtada was distributed to demonstrators at Najaf and the LAT gives some of it: "We live at this moment and so far 48 months of anxiety, oppression and occupational tyranny have passed, four years which have only brought us more death, destruction and humiliation. Every day tens are martyred, tens are crippled and every day we see and hear U.S. interference in every aspect of our lives, which means that we are not sovereign, not independent and therefore not free. This is what Iraq has harvested from the U.S. invasion."

Al-Ra'y quotes the statement as saying, in addition, America has striven to ignite sectarian turmmoil among the sons of the people. We say to the American people and to that of Europe, we want peace and liberty and independence." He addressed American and European publics, saying, "We urge you, on the basis of simple humanity, to put pressure on your governments to end our torture and the shedding of Iraqi blood." He also pledged to the Arab world his solidarity with its causes.

Sadr MP Nassar al-Rubaie said, "Today is a call for resistance, for liberty and honor after four years of Occupation from which Iraq has gained nothing but killings without any services, even electricity and water. There is no sovereignty for the people or the government. We are not saying that sovereignty is limited. We are saying that it is absent."

Sunni clerics and members of the Iraqi Islamic Party, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, were bussed up from the southern city of Basra. Abdul Qadir Abdul Da'im of the IIP said, "The demonstration is a love letter that gathers together Iraqis and unifies them with regard to demanding the departure of the Occupation from this country. We must close ranks so that we can liberate our land from the north to the south."

Iraqslogger has photos.

Fred Kaplan at Slate discusses the proposals for a US withdrawal from Iraq put forward by Steven Simon and myself. Simon's thoughtful paper is in pdf format at this Council on Foreign Relations site.

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Turkish/ Iraqi Kurdish Crisis over Barzani Comments

All hell has broken loose rhetorically between the politicians in Turkey and those in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacked the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (IKRG), Massoud Barzani, for Barzani's comments on April 6 in an interview with the al-Arabiya satellite television station. (For the text of this interview, see below). Barzani rejected Turkish concerns over the attempts by the IKRG to incorporate the oil city of Kirkuk into its territory, saying that if Ankara interfered, that he would interfere in Turkish cities. The Turks are anyway raw about Kurdish political violence in eastern Anatolia near Iraq, since 37,000 were killed in a low-intensity guerrilla struggle of radical Kurds against the Turkish state. Erdogan accused Barzani of getting above himself and said that the Iraqi Kurds would pay a "high price" for Barzani's threats.

The US State Department protested to Barzani over the vehemence of his statements.

This conflict could blow up the whole world. Readers who want background might check out this pdf file, Iraq’s Kurds and Turkey: Challenges for US Policy," from the Parameters journal. This article is already a couple of years old, but it sketches out the lay of the land and what is at issue.

Here are some of the comments by Barzani that have caused the dust-up, as carried by BBC Monitoring:

BBC Monitoring International Reports April 8, 2007 Sunday IRAQ'S BARZANI INTERVIEWED ON KURDISH AFFAIRS, IRANIAN ROLE, TIES WITH ISRAEL Dubai Al-Arabiya Television in Arabic at 2000 gmt on 6 April carries a 50-minute episode of its new programme "Frankly Speaking," presented by Elie Nakuzi. Guest of the programme is Mas'ud Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, who is interviewed in Salah-al-Din in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Asked if the Kurds have obtained all they wanted after "all the oppression they have been through," Barzani says: "Certainly not; what we have obtained is less than our sacrifices, less than what we deserve, and less than what is our right." He adds: "Actually, much progress has been made and the situation has improved. If we talk about the situation in Iraq, then there is a large progress. If we talk about the Kurdish issue in general as an issue of a nation, the road is certainly still long." On whether the Kurds are still looking forward to having an independent state, Barzani says: "This is the legitimate right of the Kurdish nation and this goal must be achieved, but without resorting to violence." He adds: "I encourage dialogue, communication, and explanation of the issue to others. I believe in struggle but in a peaceful and democratic manner and not by resorting to violence. If we are attacked, we will certainly defend ourselves." Asked about the Iranian role in Iraq, Barzani says: "Many parties have relations with Iran, and Iran has a large influence among the Shi'is. This is well known. We, too, have heard that there are Iranian interferences. When the nuclear file becomes hot, some forces here move against the coalition forces. We, however, do not have any hard evidence proving this. There is no such activity in Kurdistan." He adds that the Kurds are against any regional interference in Iraq's affairs. On whether the majority of Shi'is in Iraq are loyal to Iran, Barzani denies this and says the majority are loyal to Iraq. Responding to a question on the issue of the proposed federal system of government in Iraq and the Sunnis' "objection" to it, Barzani says any compulsory union or division will be doomed to failure. He adds: "The Sunni brothers have the right to demand what the Kurds and Shi'is have, but they have no right to say the Kurds and Shi'is do not have the right to demand a federal system. I frankly spoke to their leaders from the various trends. There should be a balanced partnership among the Shi'is, Kurds, and Sunnis. If the Sunnis imagine that they should rule Iraq by themselves, this will then be wrong. This cannot happen. The same applies to the Shi'is and Kurds." He adds that oil should be fairly and equally distributed among all the people of Iraq. Told that the Turks say they will not allow the Kurds to annex Kirkuk to Iraq's Kurdistan, Barzani says: "We will not allow the Turks to interfere in the issue of Kirkuk." Reminded that the Turks have "a huge army," Barzani says: "I do not fear their military power. No matter how strong their military power might be, it will not be stronger than that of Saddam." He adds: "I do not fear their military or diplomatic power because they interfere in an affair that does not concern them. They interfere in an internal affair of another country. Kirkuk is an Iraqi city of Kurdish identity. History, geography, and all facts prove that Kirkuk is part of Iraq's Kurdistan and Kurdistan is part of Iraq. Therefore, Kirkuk is an Iraqi city with a Kurdish identity and Turkey has no right to interfere in the issue of Kirkuk. If it does, we will interfere in the issue of Diyarbakr and other cities." Asked if this is a threat, Barzani says: "This is not a threat but a reply to interference. What right does Turkey have to interfere in the issue of Kirkuk?" He then says: "If they allow themselves to interfere in the issue of Kirkuk for the sake of a few thousand Turkomans there, we will then interfere for the 30 million Kurds in Turkey." Asked if things will reach this limit, he hopes not and says: "If the Turks insist on interfering in the issue of Kirkuk, I will be ready to bear all the consequences and not allow them to peddle their plan in Kirkuk." Responding to another question, he says: "If we are denied our right to settle down and live freely, I swear by God that we will not allow others to live in security or stability." He adds: "We are ready to defend our freedom and our cause to the end." Asked if the Kurds of Iraq help the Kurds of Turkey and Iran, he says: "Frankly speaking, we support their rights." He adds: "We do not interfere in their affairs; they choose the way to demand their rights or to struggle for their rights." He denies supporting them with funds and weapons and says: "They do not ask us and we are not ready to interfere in their affairs, but we support them morally and politically. We are against the use of violence. It is impossible to support them with weapons, but we are ready to help them with all other means." On whether the Kurds have ties with the Israelis, Barzani says: "Constitutionally, we have no right to establish ties with any country. Diplomatic relations are the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal government. If an Israeli embassy opens in Baghdad, we will undoubtedly allow an Israeli consulate to open in Arbil, too." He adds that there will be no relations between the Kurdistan Region and Israel if there are no diplomatic relations between Iraq and Israel. Continuing, he says: "I do not consider relations with Israel a crime or a taboo. Most Arab countries have relations with Israel. If we establish relations with it, we will do so publicly. There is no reason to keep such relations a secret; we are neither afraid nor ashamed of these relations." He then says: "I am for a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue and for the restoration of the Palestinian people's rights, but at the same time I am against throwing Israel into the sea." Asked if he is for the destruction of the State of Israel "as some Palestinians and Lebanese" are calling for, Barzani says: "This is impossible." He adds: "I consider this an incorrect, illogical, and irrational policy. Why should a whole people be destroyed?" He then says: "I do not believe in the call for destroying the Israeli people, but at the same time I do not at all support the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights or any Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people." On the arrest of Iranian diplomats in Arbil, Barzani says the Americans "came to the wrong place at the wrong time," adding that "the only place where there is no Iranian influence is Arbil and I will not allow any regional country to have influence in the Kurdistan Region." Responding to a question on what the Kurds will do if the United States attacks the Iranian nuclear reactors, Barzani says: "We have very frankly explained our position to the Americans and Iranians and asked them not to drag us to a conflict over the nuclear issue. We will absolutely not be a party to this conflict." Asked if there is "large corruption" in Iraq's Kurdistan as reported in the press, Barzani says: "We do not have a long experience in the field of administration. I do not deny that there are shortcomings and perhaps corruption. There is exaggeration in both commendation and criticism." He adds: "I will be grateful to anyone in and outside Iraq who can give me an accurate study showing where corruption is and in which department and how we can address it." Source: Al-Arabiya TV, Dubai, in Arabic 2000 gmt 6 Apr 07

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Cole in Salon: McCain's Iraq Problem

My column , "John McCain's Iraq Problem," is now available at Salon.com.

Excerpt:

' On Sunday, April 8, Sen. John McCain appeared on CBS's "60 Minutes" in an attempt to do damage control. Pressed on his assertion, in a CNN interview last week, that Gen. David Petraeus goes about Baghdad in an unarmored Humvee, he admitted that he was wrong. "Of course I'm going to misspeak," he observed, as though he could put the controversy behind him with weasel words. But he did not actually back off his recent sunny pronouncements about the situation in Iraq. "I believe we can succeed, and I believe the consequences of failure are catastrophic."

In the past two weeks, McCain has produced a trove of Iraq-related images and quotes that are sure to dog his faltering bid for the presidency. On March 26, during an interview with conservative radio host Bill Bennett, McCain said, "There are neighborhoods in Baghdad where you and I could walk through those neighborhoods today." The next day, he insisted to CNN's Wolf Blitzer that Gen. Petraeus was driving around armorless. Then, on April 1, in an attempt to back up his words, McCain went on his infamous Baghdad shopping trip. The Internet was soon awash with mocking photos of McCain strolling blithely through the Shurja market in a Kevlar vest. On Sunday, "60 Minutes" ran footage of McCain dickering over a rug with a merchant, then pulled back to show the senator surrounded by heavily armed and armored U.S. troops, and also mentioned that attack helicopters were hovering overhead. In the past year, only the image of Israeli Minister of Defense Amir Peretz looking out on the battlefield through binoculars with the caps still over the lenses has made a politician look more foolish. '

Read the whole thing.
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How to Get out of Iraq

I repeat:

My article, "How to Get out of Iraq,", is now out in The Nation.

Here is a copy of an email I sent about the piece to a discussion list:

Just to clarify in light of . . . comments, I was not proposing an optimistic scenario, or, indeed, any scenario at all.

I was simply saying that Saudi Arabia and Iran do not have to have a proxy war in Iraq if they don't want to have one, and that it is possible for them to take the prudent steps that would forestall it.

Many commentators present the prospect of such a war as inevitable or as preventable only by a continued US military presence. The US presence, however, has made things worse every single one of the past three years, because it unwittingly removes the incentives to compromise from local Iraqi forces and helps to paralyze the neighbors from playing a prominent role. Remove the US military from the equation, I am arguing, and it is far more likely that all parties concerned will begin behaving more responsibly.

I cannot guarantee that outcome. I can say that the past 3 years do not make me sanguine that things will get better with a continued US dominance.

I also wrote to an email discussion group:

With regard to the fate of the Iraqi Kurds if the US withdraws: I don't believe that the US troops are doing the Kurds of Iraq any good. There are very few US troops in the north. Are there any at all in the KRG? There are some near Kirkuk. Some 3000 GIs were recently withdrawn from Mosul and sent to Baghdad as part of the current security plan.

The Kurdistan Regional Government is stable and relatively secure because over 60,000 well-armed and well-trained Peshmerga provide security. The Peshmerga are recognized by the Iraqi constitution as the legitimate security forces of Kurdistan, so there is no reason that the US cannot go on supplying and training them. I don't believe there is any evidence that they need US ground troops in order to survive. The Peshmerga are the best and most committed indigenous military force in Iraq and virtually the only part of the Iraqi army (where they have been detailed to it) that have consistently stood their ground in firefights.

The Kurds needed protection when Saddam was in power and had 4,000 remaining tanks with which to menace them. That situation has changed.

As for the politics of the situation, the same thing applies here as elswhere. The Kurdish political leadership under Massoud Barzani has been remarkably inflexible with regard to key demands of the Sunni Arabs, and I believe that this inflexibility derives in some large part from a conviction that US troops will protect the Kurds and so they need not negotiate with the Sunni Arabs as equals. Remove the US from the equation, and I expect everyone will be more flexible.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

10 US Troops Killed
Thousands of Sadrist Demonstrators Come to Najaf

Thousands of followers of young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr converged on Najaf Monday, planning to join rallies against continued US military occupation of Iraq. April 9 is the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad to US forces. Although some journalists are writing that al-Sadr called for violent attacks on US troops, the communique he released on Sunday simply says that Iraqi Army troops and Mahdi Army militiamen should not fight one another and should not allow the Americans to manipulate them.

Sadrist passions are running high because of a joint US/Iraqi government campaign against Sadrist militias (the Mahdi Army) in Diwaniya.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Muqtada launched in his communique, "a call to the Mahdi Army and the security apparatuses to stop fighting [in Diwaniya]." He said, "That is enough struggling and fighting, for it merely ensures the success of the plans of our enemy and your enemy. Our Iraq can no longer bear the shedding of this blood. The blood of an Iraqi is a red line [that must not be crossed.]" He added, "Iraqi Army and Police: Do not get drawn in behind the Occupier. For it is an obvious enemy to you." He said, "The armies of darkness represented by the Occupation forces, and more especially the great evil, America, have begun sowing the seeds of comflict, whether openly or through their agents--who have sold their land and their honor. We behold the turmoil taking place in Diwaniya, which the Occupier planned out to turn brotherhood into struggle and fighting."

Of the demonstration planned for Najaf, a Sadr spokesman said that participants would fly only the Iraqi flag to underline that it was a purely Iraqi rally. Demonstrators are demanding a US departure from Iraq.

Al-Hayat says that a Sadr spokesman in Diwaniya was announcing that al-Sadr's announcement had convinced some units of the Mahdi Army to stand down and let Iraqi government troops into their neighborhoods.

10 US GIs were killed in Iraq over the weekend. Police found 17 bodies dumped in Baghdad on Sunday.

On Sunday, Sunni Arab guerrillas deployed a massive car bomb in Mahmudiya, a town south of Baghdad, killing 17 and wounding 24. The blast, which targeted industrial workshops, leveled a three-story building.

Reuters reports other political violence in Iraq on Sunday, including these incidents:

"BAGHDAD - Seven people were killed and 21 wounded when a suicide car bomb exploded near an intersection in Ilaam district in southern Baghdad, police said.

BAGDHAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded seven in the Adhamiya district in northern Baghdad, police said.

HILLA - A roadside bomb targeting a police Scorpion Brigade patrol wounded three policemen in the Shi'ite city of Hilla . . .

The Vatican probably can't say "I told you so," given that pride is a sin. But this Easter address by the Pope on Iraq is pretty close. "Nothing positive comes from Iraq, torn apart by continual slaughter as the civil population flees," the Pope said.
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64 Dead in Iraq; 4 US Troops Killed;
Bombings in Baghdad, Bodies in Baquba;
US vs. Mahdi Army in Diwaniya

AP reports that 64 persons were killed or found dead in Iraq on Saturday. Among them were 4 US troops, killed by a roadside bomb near Baquba.

27 bodies were found in Baquba, a mixed city northeast of the capital. Police found 7 bodies in the northern Turkmen city of Tal Afar. Karbala authorities said that 22 Shiite shepherds had been killed and that 6 of their bodies were found in al-Anbar province. Police found 12 bodies in Baghdad.

McClatchy says that guerrillas came into Baquba and chased 21 shopkeepers out of their shops, then burned them, causing over a million dinars of damage. Some parts of Baquba also took mortar fire on Saturday.

A car bomb in the Shiite Sadr City part of Baghdad killed 1 and wounded 5. Guerrillas in Baghdad set off 5 roadside bombs and sent mortar shells on some neighborhoods, wounding over a dozen Iraqis. US forces raided the offices of Khalaf al-Ulyan, a member of parliament from the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front.

Major fighting continued in Diwaniya between US forces, allied with the local police, and the Mahdi Army militia. The Shiite fundamentalist militia had been taking over entire neighborhoods of the city and making them offlimits to police and central government figures. Reuters says that local Iraqi authorities reported that 13 bodies came into the morgue and that 41 persons were injured. They said that 6 of the dead were non-combatants killed when US warplanes bombed a house said to be used by militiamen. The US maintained that only one person, a deadly militiaman, was killed in the attack.

Aljazeera reviews the reports of some Iraqi bloggers that the Wall Street Journal is not publishing.

Iran barred Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki from its air space during his trip to Japan Saturday evening. Al-Maliki had had good relations with Tehran and it is not clear why Iran took this step. A recently freed Iranian diplomat claimed Saturday that he had been tortured while in US custody.

The Telegraph has discovered documents indicating that the British authorities plan to have troops in Iraq through 2012 at least. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is claiming that a recent British raid on a police HQ in Basra violated Iraqi sovereignty. They want an apology.

A British captain who knows Arabic and Pushtu and has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan has concluded that both wars are wrongheaded and counter-productive and that good men are now getting killed for an effort that is a "shambles."

US detention centers in Iraq are alleged to be terrorist training grounds, according to the LAT.

William Douglas of the McClatchy wire service examines Bush's allegation that if the US leaves Iraq, the "terrorists will follow us here." He finds that security experts generally find the claim unsubstantiated and exaggerated. (I.e., it is propaganda, folks.)

Hannah Allam finds anxiety increasing among Saudi Arabia's newly emancipated Shiite Muslims that the violence in Iraq between Sunnis and Shiites will cost them. Moves toward granting them more rights by the Wahhabi authorities have slowed recently.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Attack on Sunni Baghdad Satellite Channel Draws Criticism

The US Government Open Source Center translated or paraphrased the following report from Sunni fundamentalist party internet sites;

Iraq: AMS, Iraqi Islamic Party Condemn Attack on Baghdad Channel Friday, April 6, 2007 The Iraqi Islamic Party WWW-Text in Arabic -- website of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, led by Tariq al-Hashimi, available at www.iraqiparty.com -- is observed on 5 April to post a statement on an attack targeting Baghdad Satellite Channel, television station believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party. Describing the attack as "a desperate attempt to muzzle the voice of justice" and "a sterile endeavor to foil the efforts to alleviate the injustice inflicted upon the distressed people," the statement says: "Since its inception, this channel has been committed to moderate national rhetoric, and has taken up the mission of defending Iraqi citizens regardless of their religious or sectarian affiliations." Reminding that "this was not the first attack targeting this free voice," the statement urges the channel's staff "to carry on with their national efforts despite all the obstacles and risks facing them." On 5 April, the Internet website of the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) in Iraq, available at www.iraq-amsi.org, is observed to post a statement "condemning" the attack targeting the premises of Baghdad Satellite Channel. The statement says: "Targeting media outlets is nothing but another means to muzzle opinions. This crime is a continuation of the suffering which the Iraqi people have been going through for four years due to the occupation that is oppressing them. At a time when the spokesmen for the so-called the security plan talk about their big achievements, the scenario of targeting innocent Iraqis is still raging. While the AMS condemns this outrageous crime, it expresses solidarity with Baghdad Satellite Channel."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Friday Sermons in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates excerpts from the Iraqi Friday prayers sermons delivered a week ago, many of which were reacting to the Arab League Summit held in Saudi Arabia.

Iraqi Friday Sermons for 30 Mar Discuss Arab Summit, Security, Political Process Iraq Saturday, March 31, 2007 Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 30 March to carry the following reports on Friday sermons: Al-Iraqiyah: Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - cites Sadr-al-Din al-Qubbanji, imam and preacher of Al-Najaf al-Ashraf Mosque, as saying that the "Riyadh summit has not achieved the minimum level of the Iraqis' aspirations." For his part, Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, read during the Friday sermon at Al-Kufah Mosque the statement of Muqtada al-Sadr, in which he stressed that the issue of the presence of the US forces in Iraq is the business of the Iraqi people. He added that no one has the right to extend or call for maintaining this presence." Al-Qubbanji says: "The final statement did not condemn the takfir (holding other Muslims to be infidel) fatwas (religious rulings). The shedding of blood in Iraq is the result of these takfir fatwas. The final statement did not express support for the political process or for the persecuted Iraqi people. Here, we are trying to alert the Arabs and draw their attention to this." Turning to the Accountability and Justice Law, which will be presented to the Council of Representatives, Al-Qubbanji says: "God be praised, there are competent people at the Council of Representatives, and the political blocs and figures can competently and carefully study and cautiously and fairly deal with this draft law. We believe that we have a host of constants. If the draft law adheres to these constants it will be alright. If the draft law conflicts with these constants it will be rejected." Reading the statement of Muqtada al-Sadr, Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi says: "O wronged Iraqi people, make the whole world hear that you reject the destructive occupation and terrorism, and that you love Islam, peace, and freedom. This is in order to keep the reputation of beloved Iraq and its people clean and to cut off the tongues of lies and charlatanism that seek to harm Iraq and its people. This can be achieved by staging a unified demonstration in Al-Najaf al-Ashraf on 9 April this year in response to the call of freedom and peace." Speaking on the anniversary of the birthday of Prophet Muhammad, Shaykh Dr Abd-al-Karim al-Khazraji says: "The Prophet, may God's peace and blessing be upon, teaches us not to cut off a tree. Compared with the tree, the human being is more important and nobler than the tree. He also teaches us not to kill women, children, and old people. This is God's religion, O brothers. The prophet came with a law for the whole world. However, what we currently see is that the human being has become cheap and his blood is being shed." In the Babil Governorate, Usamah al-Musawi, imam and preacher of Friday sermon at the Martyr Al-Sadr Office, says: "We are one of the most prominent sides participating in the political process. We have some 30 or 32 people at the parliament. We also have ministries and members of the governorate councils." He adds: "We support the government of Al-Maliki. This is why they seek to harm and provoke us in order to topple the government on the pretext that it cannot protect the Iraqis." He says: "We are not intimidated by any threat from anyone or from any source. Our chests are open for their bullets, and our necks are ready for their swords. However, we will not be intimidated, and we will not kneel down or surrender, and let them do whatever they want." He also calls on the Iraqis to stage a "unified demonstration" in Al-Najaf al-Ashraf on 9 April "in response to the call of freedom and peace." Baghdad Satellite Channel: Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party, at 0900 GMT is observed to carry a live relay of a Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque in Baghdad. The sermon is delivered by an unidentified preacher. He begins be praising God and His Prophet and urging worshippers to fear God. Speaking about the Arab summit in Riyadh, the preacher says: "I will not divulge a secret if I say that this summit was very disappointing, particularly regarding the tragedy of Iraq. If I had the opportunity to make the Arab kings and presidents, who met in Riyadh yesterday and the day before yesterday, hear my voice, I would have told them that you met while your brothers in Iraq, Palestine, and elsewhere were seriously suffering from injustice and occupation." Speaking about the "new world order, which is represented by world Judaism, its state, Israel, and the only pole that monopolizes the leadership of the world, the United States, may God disgrace it," the preacher says: "This quarrelsomeness and injustice have exceeded their limits in a way over which one cannot remain silent." He says that what is strange is that the more the United States inflicts injustice on Iraq the more and more the Arabs throw themselves in its arms. If the Arab rulers had some independence, they would dissociate themselves from the United States and stop revolving in its orbit inasmuch as it dissociates itself from our interests and supports our enemy." Continuing to address the Arab rulers, the preacher says: "O Arab rulers, what do you have to say about these biased and unjust statements, which participate in killing us and in shedding our blood and which bless the shedding of Muslim blood? What do you have to say about the massacres that are being perpetrated against Iraq and our Palestinian brothers and what can you do to support your brothers? What do you have to say about these US statements that collude with Israel to the point of crime and plotting?" The preacher criticizes the Arab leaders who supported the United States, the United Kingdom, and others in "attacking and occupying Iraq, tightening the siege on its people, and stripping it off its weapons, which are nothing compared to Israel's weapons of mass destruction." He adds that an Arab politician once said that "the day will come when the Arabs will regret what has befallen Iraq and the loss of its weapons." The preacher then elaborates on the attempts to partition Iraq. He says that this "plot is also aimed at partitioning the neighboring states." He adds that the "conspiracy is aimed at changing Iraq's Arab identity." He concludes his first sermon by criticizing the militias that kill innocent people and attack mosques. The preacher devotes his second sermon to the anniversary of the birthday of Prophet Muhammad. . . Al-Furat: Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries a report on today's Friday sermons, in which some preachers criticized the results of the Arab summit in Riyadh. Muhammad al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "Some of them called for abrogating the constitution and the political process. Some of them denounced the militias only, but they did not denounce terrorism. The speech of the Kuwaiti amir, however, was balanced." Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i, representative of the religious authority in Karbala, says: "All the good blocs and forces, which seek to achieve security and stability for this people, should unite and cooperate to confront terrorism. All sides should realize that the danger of this terrorism is not confined to a certain group, class, or sect, but it targets all sides without exception." At 1800 GMT, the channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program. The program shows Muhammad al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, saying: "The government and the security agencies took upon themselves to defend the Iraqi people." He adds: "We should be patient and endure. It is true that our pains are great, but it is also true that our duty is to be patient because we want to check the plans of the enemy, which is trying to drag Iraq to sectarian sedition, bloody conflict, and civil war." He adds: "It is clear that over the past three or four days, there was an escalation in operations. We feel that there is a great state of alert by the terrorists to carry out bombing operations anywhere they can amid the people. The objective behind the escalation at this time is to send a message to the Arab message in which they say that we are still here and we are strong. They call themselves resistance. They want to say that we are still fighting and we have our influence. This is the message they want to send to the Arab summit." He says that the Arab summit should know that these people are "cowards and that they kill women and children" Turning to the Arab summit's final statement, Al-Haydari says: "In general, we consider it in our favor, although it includes some paragraphs that are not in our favor, but it includes denunciation of terrorism and support for the political process. It also calls on the Iraqi Government to carry out reforms." He says: "Some sides call for rejecting sectarianism. This is a true and a sincere call. However, they should stop the sectarian campaigns against the followers of Al Al-Bayt (Shiites) in their own countries." Shaykh Abd-al-Mahdi al-Karbala'i reminds members of the Council of Representatives of their "legal and religious" responsibilities toward defending the Iraqi people. He says that among the first of your tasks is "to achieve the interests of this people and to seek to consolidate them by enacting the laws that achieve this and by strongly confronting the attempts to strip these wronged people off these achievements and gains. Regrettably, however, we find some of these brothers think only of how to win more personal privileges and serve their own interests or those of the group with which they are affiliated." He adds that these members should know that the people "can remove them from their posts and chairs." Turning to the Arab summit, the preacher says: "Although we express our appreciation for some resolutions on the Iraq issue, we, at the same time, express our strong regret over and astonishment at the fact that these resolutions have failed to touch on the acts of terrorism that target all the sons of the Iraqi people, Sunnis and Shiites, Muslims and Christians, Arabs, Kurds, and others. These resolutions have also failed to denounce and condemn these acts." He adds: "We also express our strong regret over some other resolutions, which include interference in some of Iraq's affairs." Shaykh Yusuf al-Hamadani, imam and preacher of the Martyr Taha Mosque in Basra, devotes his sermon to the anniversary of the birthday of the prophet. Turning to the Iraqi situation, Al-Hamadani says that over the past two weeks, there were "terrorist, criminal, and takfiri operations targeting innocent people." He adds that those who kill innocent people by using all means will kill people "with a nuclear bomb if they manage to obtain it." He describes the terrorists' use of the chlorine gas in Al-Fallujah as a "qualitative move in the criminal terrorist operations." . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Chlorine Truck Bomb Kills 30, Wounds 100;
Rumayla Pipeline Near Basra Bombed;
Assault on Mahdi Army in Diwaniya

Alissa J. Rubin of the NYT reports that a chlorine truck bomb in Ramadi killed 30, including women and children, on Friday, and sent about 100 persons to the hospital with shrapnel wounds or breathing problems.

In the Shiite south, US and Iraqi troops conducted a campaign in Diwaniya against the Mahdi Army militia, which has fought several engagements against local police. The police in Diwaniya include many elements of the Badr Corps of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Badr is a rival of the Mahdi Army. It has been alleged that the Mahdi Army in Diwaniya was not under the control of young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and was ignoring his orders in favor of local rogue leaders. Iraqslogger has more.

With reference to operation 'Black Eagle' in Diwaniya, AFP notes: "Bleichwehl said troops, facing scattered resistance, discovered a factory that produced “explosively formed penetrators” (EFPs), a particularly deadly type of explosive that can destroy a main battle tank and several weapons caches."

All this time, the US Pentagon has been maintaining that EFPs had to be imported from Iran and could not be produced in Iraq. But voila, an Iraqi EFP factory. One of the key components, which is difficult to mill, is routinely used in oil field technology, and lots of Iraqis know how to make it.

Police found 11 bodies in Baghdad, and four in Tal Afar, according to Reuters, which reports a number of bombings and assassinations bombardments in Baghdad, Kirkuk and elsewhere. McClatchy reports an even great range of violent incidents on Friday, including several mortar attacks in Baghdad.

Among the most significant was an attack I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere: "5 p.m. yesterday (Thursday), the Rumayla oil pipeline 50 km west of Basra has been damaged by a bomb."

A Rumayla oil pipeline was damaged by a bomb!? Rumayla to my knowledge hasn't suffered much from pipeline sabotage. Oil has been smuggled from it, yes. Militias and tribes conduct turf wars over the smuggling rights. But just blowing it up? That would be counterproductive for smuggling. The action suggests that one of the competing smuggling mafias or militias has been successfully frozen out of the action. In that case, they lose nothing if they blow the pipeline up, and they harm their rivals.

The Rumayla fields have 500 wellheads and produce most of the 1.8 million barrels a day of petroleum that currently support the Iraqi economy. The northern Kirkuk fields most often cannot export at all, because the pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey constantly gets blown up by Sunni Arab guerrillas. If the Rumayla pipelines start being routinely targeted by Shiite militiamen in the south, it might spell the end of the Iraqi government of Nuri al-Maliki. It is not as if the government takes in much revenue from taxes, or has any great prospect of doing so. This pipeline bombing has been little noticed, but it is very important if it signals the beginning of a series of such attacks.

In a canny move, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Friday offered pensions to high-ranking military officers in the former Baath regime. A wise policy, though possibly too little too late. Much of the trouble in Iraq is being caused by these very officers, though it gets blamed on "al-Qaeda" in the Western press. If the Baath officers really could be mollified, it would have a big impact on whether Iraq can return to stability. Officers at the rank of major or below have the option of joining the new Iraqi army.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

70 Killed in Iraq
Diplomacy of Iran May be Legacy of British Sailor Hostage Crisis

The killings of 18 Iraqi, British and American soldiers by Iraqi guerrillas and militiamen were announced on Thursday.

AFP estimates that 52 persons were killed or found dead on Thursday, with 20 bodies brought to the morgue at Baquba northeast of Baghdad.

Other violence, including roadside bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad on Friday, are reported by Reuters.

Militiamen in the southern Shiite port city of Basra deployed a roadside bomb to kill four British soldiers and their interpreter when it penetrated their armored fighting vehicle. The incident occurred near the Hayaniya district, a slum where the Mahdi Army of the Sadr Movement is strong. (In general, in Basra, the Mahdi Army is a minority affair.) Tony Blair's implication that Iran was involved in this attack somehow is likely incorrect. Iran and the Mahdi Army mostly don't get along very well. Besides, an allegation like that should be accompanied by some proof.

In Mosul, 40 Sunni Arab guerrillas attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint. They set vehicles aflame and confiscated the soldiers' weapons, having found them asleep.

On Thursday, Sunni Arab guerrillas deployed roadside bombs in Baghdad to kill 4 US GIs.

Near Latifiya, guerrillas directed heavy fire at a US helicopter, apparently forcing it to make a hard landing in which 4 of the 9 service personnel aboard were injured.

Sunni Iraqi clerics meeting in Amman have agreed to form a new organization, the Council of Islamic Clerics. They issued a communique that said:

' The conference stresses the need for working with all means, including the legitimate resistance, to expel the invasion forces and ensure laying down a timetable for their pullout.'

Bernard Gwertzman's interview of me on the release of Iran's hostages and the Iranian role in Iraq is available at the Council on Foreign Relations web site.

Jim Lobe interviews Gary Sick, Trita Parsi and me on the Iranian capture and release of the British sailors, and what might be the aftermath.

Noam Chomsky on 'What if Iran had invaded Mexico?'

Shorter Washington Post: Feith and Cheney were just making it all up as they went, and lied us into a quagmire of a horrible war.

Cheney repeated on Thursday on Rush Limbaugh his ridiculous assertion that Saddam Hussein was running Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as an al-Qaeda agent in Baghdad.

Someone should please tell Cheney that his own government captured documents in Iraq that show that Saddam's security forces were a) afraid of al-Qaeda and Zarqawi and b) were trying to capture him once they heard he was in Iraq. The pdf link in my posting on this shows the APB Iraq put out for Zarqawi and the wanted poster.

I don't know why this information hasn't percolated up to Cheney or why the US press doesn't call him on his ridiculous assertions that are contradicted by clear documentary evidence in USG hands.

Zeinaub Chami on the propaganda effort by the Zionist Organization of America to bring so-called "ex-terrorist" Muslim speakers to the Detroit Metro area, and who say questionable things about the Muslim tradition.

Yes, whenever I want to know about Islam, I go to the Zionist Organization of America and to the retired terrorist dentists that they recommend.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Rash of Kidnappings of Dozens of Shiites
Iraq Government misplaces or Steals $8 Billion

AP reports that Sunni Arab guerrillas kidnapped 22 Shiite shepherds and stole thousands of sheep on Wednesday when the Shiites came up from Karbala to al-Anbar Province in search of pasturage. Reuters reports that there was also another major kidnapping on Wednesday: "LATIFIYA - Gunmen manning a fake checkpoint kidnapped passengers traveling in six minibus taxis and a car, near the town of Latifiya 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, an official in the Hilla police chief's office said. . ."

Six minibuses would have had a lot of people in them. This route is one traveled by Shiites going back and forth from Baghdad to their holy cities.

Reuters reports that in addition to the shooting of 11 electricity workers near Hawija in the north, in the northern mixed oil city of Kirkuk: "Nine civilians were wounded on Tuesday when three roadside bombs exploded in a mainly Kurdish district of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said . . ."

A returning US naval reservist reveals how bad the situation is in Iraq. Money quotes:

' “If you’re going to walk around over there, I’d strongly suggest investing in Kevlar (body armor),” Christensen said. “There are definitely warmer spots of American compassion, but things are still very … touchy.”

Christensen said his team was discouraged from interacting with Iraqi citizens, because it was difficult to tell friend from foe.

“There would be 10- or 11- year-old kids that would give us a ‘thumbs up’ when we drove by them, and then throw grenades under our truck after we passed,” he said.

But Christensen said the worst violence was saved for Iraqi groups that assisted in the American reconstruction of the country, such as the Iraqi Security Forces.

“If there is one group of people that they hate more than us, it’s the Iraqi Army,” he said. “If they catch wind that one of our convoys is working with the Iraqi Army, they’ll fight to the death. You take a few minutes for yourself before you (leave the base) on missions like that.” '

Let me just get this straight. The US is putting all its hopes in the prospect that "as the Iraqi forces stand up, we'll stand down." But the Iraqi forces provoke the fiercest resistance among the guerrillas, and their presence on a mission actually increases the danger to US troops! I don't think this standing up business sounds as though it is going well.

Until the Iranian government announced Wednesday that it would release the 15 captured British sailors and Marines, , according to al-Sharq al-Awsat writing in Arabic, the inhabitants of the southern Shiite port city of Basra were growing anxious that they might get caught in the crossfire of any hot conflict between the West and Iran. Some complained about the relative passivity of the Iraqi government during the crisis. "They were acting as though it had happened in some other country," one Basran said.

A spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani denied on Wednesday that the Shiite spiritual leader opposes a new law supported by President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that would reinstate Baathists in high government positions if they cut off any relationship to the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement. Sistani's opposition was reported by visiting politician Ahmad Chalabi, who admittedly has credibility problems.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Shiite Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq has been working on a Status of Forces Agreement that would define the relationship between the Iraqi state and the multinational forces (mainly American). His draft is said to insist on Iraqi control of the airports and borders. US troops would require permission to kick down doors and conduct searches. These provisions were discussed by Iraqi officials and MPs with American officials. Among the parliamentarians engaging in the talks was Qusay Abdul Wahhab, a member of the Sadr Movement, which has demanded an immediate US departure. As the next item makes clear, the Sadr leadership was distressed at Abdul Wahhab's participation in these talks and has expelled him from the party over it. Salman al-Jumayli, a leader of the Sunni Arab Iraqi Islamic Party, denied that his party had approved the draft SOFA. He said his bloc insists on provisions for a withdrawal timetable for American troops.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the politburo of the Sadr Movement announced Wednesday that it had expelled two members of parliament from the party because they had met with US officials during the past two days. Abdul Mahdi al-Mutayri, a member of the Political Committee that took the step, said, "The Committee expelled the former minister of transportation, Salam al-Maliki, and the MP Qusay Abdul Wahhab, who met with American officials two days ago." He clarified, "Muqtada al-Sadr approved the expulsion." He was referring to the young Shiite nationalist cleric that leads the Sadr Movement begun by his father. He said that consorting with Occupation officials is contrary to the principles of the Sadr movement. Al-Zaman says that this announcement is the first public indication of the existence of tensions within the Sadr Movement, which has a fourth of the seats in the United Iraqi Alliance, the ruling Shiite bloc in parliament.

Al-Zaman also reports that the Iraqi government has been secretly transporting unidentified corpses from the Baghdad morgue to a vast cemetery near the Shiite holy city of Karbala. The Baghdad daily says that 2500 unidentified corpses have been disposed of this way since last June. It alleges that the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has forbidden the Baghdad morgue from announcing the true death toll, but that morgue officials admit that 16,000 unidentified or unclaimed corpses came in during 2006.

Privatizing Iraqi petroleum may not be so easy if the oil workers union has anything to say about it. And, it does.

Iraqi officials cannot account for $8 billion during the past 3 years, with much of it embezzled. Some $2 billion disappeared during the prime ministership of US-appointed PM Iyad Allawi.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi, the Grand Sheikh of al-Azhar Seminary and among the leader Sunni authorities in the world, has conveyed to the Iranian leadership his dismay at the support it has given to the militias of religious parties in the Iraqi government and to death squads that kill and kidnap on a sectarian basis. The message was contained in a letter that was carried to former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami, who had visited Cairo last week. Khatami, according to al-Azhar sources, had promised to pass it on to the Iranian leadership.

In the Khatami period, al-Azhar had pursued Sunni Shiite ecumenism. Tantawi even signed off on a joint fatwa with Sistani and other Shiite clerics accepting that Shiites and Sunnis were both Muslims in good standing and that it was wrong for one Muslim to declare another Muslim an infidel for belonging to one of the four major Sunni rites or to the Jaafari school of Shiite Islamic law.

This letter is a sign that tensions are growing between even mainstream, moderate Sunni and Shiite clergymen throughout the Middle East, tensions fueled by the sectarian violence in Iraq.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Israel vs. Bush & the Neoconservatives on Syria?

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's trip to Damascus makes perfect sense as domestic US politics. The Democratic Party is developing its own foreign policy, different from that of Bush, which involves negotiating with Middle Eastern actors rather than just attempting to isolate them, call them evil, and if possible overthrow them. In the post-Iraq era (that one is all over with but the shouting, folks), such a policy of (tough) negotiating makes sense for the US, even if Bush refuses to see it. There is a lot he cannot see.

But Pelosi's trip doesn't make so much sense on the surface if one stops to think how close the top Democratic leadership is to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which in turn is close to government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. AIPAC had earlier pushed for isolating Syria.

But here we have Tom Lantos, among the staunchest partisans of Israel in Congress, expressing satisfaction with Pelosi going off to Damascus. And, Pelosi is carrying a message to Bashar al-Asad from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Yet the trip is being denounced by Bush and the Neoconservatives around him, including Jewish intellectuals with deep ties to the Israel lobby.

So what is going on here, really?

One possibility is that AIPAC and Olmert feel that they have been burned by the Neoconservatives-- by Elliot Abrams of the Bush National Security Council, by Richard Perle and Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute (and formerly of the Pentagon), by John Hannah and Irv Lewis Libby on Dick Cheney's national security staff, etc.

How burned? As announced in their White Paper for Netanyahu in the 1990s, "A Clean Break," , the Neoconservatives pushed an Iraq war explicitly aimed at overthrowing the al-Asad regime in Damascus and in allowing the full theft of all Palestinian land in Gaza and the West Bank by expansionist Israeli settlers, thus permanently derailing the Oslo peace process and preventing a binational solution to the Palestinian crisis.

The Neoconservatives promised the Americans and the Israelis that Israel would be more secure after an Iraq War.

But it isn't. The head of Shin Bet, the Israeli FBI, admitted just last year that the chaos in Iraq is a dire threat to Israel and that the Israelis might eventually wish they could have Saddam Hussein back.

The American Neoconservatives were also all for the Israeli war on Lebanon of last July-August, wanted the Israelis to open a second front against Syria. Since the Israelis could not gain a decisive victory over little Hizbullah with its 5,000 fighters, it obviously would have been an even greater fiasco if they had attacked Damascus.

If the Baath regime in Syria really were overthrown at this point in time, likely the Muslim Brotherhood would take power in Damascus. (For the situation in Syria, see Josh Landis, Syria Comment.) It would be far more menacing to Israel than the secular Baathists, who just want the Golan back and a basic humane settlement for the stateless Palestinians. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in power would certainly fully back the Sunni Arab resistance in Iraq, would connive at overthrowing the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan, and would hook up powerfully with Hamas in Gaza. A Muslim Brotherhood Saladin might emerge who could unite the entire Sunni Arab Greater Syrian hinterland against Israel, posing a profound threat to it.

Al-Hayat reported about a year and a half ago that the Israeli political and military elite had decided that trying to get the Baathists in Damascus overthrown was too risky, and it was better to deal with them than with some unknown force that might emerge in their wake.

So since the Neocons' Iraq War has turned into a catastrophe that poses an asymmetrical security threat to Israel, since the Lebanon war they so strongly backed turned into a fiasco, and since their plans for overthrowing Bashar are likely to even further endanger Israel, then the Israeli political and military elite must be fuming and seeking a way to outmaneuver the Bushies and their wild man Neocon allies.

Enter the new Democratic Party majority in Congress, which is traditionally much closer to the mainstream in Israel than are the Republicans (whose main pro-Israeli allies, the Neocons, are most strongly aligned with the Likud Party of Bibi Netanyahu, which now only has nine seats in parliament). The Democrats are obvious allies for a chastened Israeli mainstream that has decided to pursue peace with Syria and Saudi Arabia instead of trying to destroy them, as Richard Perle had urged. And, of course, the attractiveness of peace talks with Syria and Saudi Arabia is enhanced by the opportunity of allying with the Arabs against Iran and its client, Hizbullah.

If this analysis has anything to offer, Pelosi's trip is a sign that the mainstream of the American Jewish community and the mainstream of contemporary Israeli politics have joined together to oppose the Likudnik policies of the Neoconservatives and the aggressive, unilateralist approach of the Bush administration. Those policies and that approach have failed miserably and have endangered Israel, and that would explain the tacit blessing Olmert has given Pelosi, and the warm support proffered her mission by representatives such as Lantos.

If even the Kadima Party leadership in Israel has decisively turned against the American Neoconservative movement to this extent, then the American Enterprise Institute may as well just pack up its Middle East policies and go home. They don't represent Olmert, and they don't represent AIPAC, and they certainly don't represent (and never have represented) American Jewry. Their outrageous posturing that anyone who dares criticize their velociraptor warmongering is an antisemite is rather unimpressive if their policies are being opposed by the rightwing prime minister of Israel himself.

Of course, there is the danger that rather than seeking a comprehensive Middle East peace, the opening to Syria and Saudi Arabia will simply be used for military action against Iran or that no practical steps will be taken to resolve the Palestine issue (as they were not when Israel made peace with Egypt and later with Jordan).

But you have to wonder whether, after Richard Perle's wild ride as a Dr. Strangelove-like influence-peddler in Washington, whether the time of Brit Tzedek v'Shalom may be coming.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Breaking News: British Sailors Freed

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced today that the 15 British sailors and Marines captured by Iran on March 23 would be released. Iran had alleged that the UK seafarers had been in Iranian waters, which Britain denies.

The decision to keep the British naval personnel for a couple of weeks and this decision to release them were made by Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, not by Ahmadinejad, who appears to have been relatively muzzled by his superiors during the crisis itself.

I argued in Salon that the episode was used by Khamenei to whip up nationalist fervor and more public support in Iran for his unpopular regime.

These sorts of incidents are always to some extent about face, and apparently the Iranians felt that when Britain agreed to enter into direct bilateral negotiations, Iran had gained enough face to be magnanimous. Ahmadinejad specifically condemned the earlier British multilateral approach of arranging for a UN Security Council condemnation of Iran (in which Tehran lost face).

The speed with which British diplomacy secured the release of these sailors and Marines proves for the thousandth time that the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, which called for military reprisals against Iran instead, is delusional in its warmongering. What is *wrong* with those people?

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

11 Electricity Workers Killed at Checkpoint
Democrats threaten to take On Bush on Iraq Funding

Police discovered 14 bodies in Baghad, 7 in Baqubah and 3 in Mosul on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Guerrillas detonated two roadside bombs in south Baghdad. Early on Wednesday, gunmen killed 11 electricity workers near Hawija southwest of Kirkuk, after setting up a phony checkpoint.

Congress and the president are locked in a series of battles, over funding for the Iraq War, setting a timetable for withdrawal, and talking to leaders of states that the White House does not like, such as Syria. Senator Harry Reid appears set to play chicken with George W. Bush over funding for the troops, seeing who will blink first.

According to one Iraqi newspaper, the Dems are getting an unexpected ally. Saudi King Abdullah is said to prefer cooperating with the Democrats than with the White House on resolution of the Iraq crisis (see below).

More, this time from Sudarsan Raghavan of WaPo, on why Senator John McCain's sunny pronouncements at the Shurja Market in Baghdad don't hold water.

The Gulf Times Reporst [scroll down] that "Iraq has issued invitations for 15 Arab, Asian and American firms to drill 100 oil wells in the country’s south as part of efforts to boost production, the oil ministry spokesman said yesterday."

The American public admits that their country is too quick to go to war in a new poll. And, 84 percent say that they think the US should not again go to war without the support of its allies. (Apparently the public, unlike the Neocons, still considers France an ally.)

MENA in Cairo is reporting that Harith al-Dhari, a leader of the Sunni fundamentalist Association of Muslim Scholars, is denying reports that the US has reached out to Sunni Arab insurgents in Iraq. "America might have spoken with ineffective parties that have no say whatsoever in the Iraqi resistance," al-Dhari is quoted as saying. He also maintained that the US presence in Iraq fuels the violence, and that plans for federalism are aimed at breaking up the country.

Al-Dhari's allegation is given some credence by the denial being issued by Salah Umar al-Ali, an ex-Baathist dissident, that he had been contacted by the Iraqi government in an attempt to reach out to the ex-Baath leadership. The claim that the Iraqi government was talking to him was carried by al-Hayat recently. If Iraqi officials are lying to al-Hayat about al-Ali, they are probably lying about the whole range of alleged contacts. So far, both Bush and al-Maliki seem still determined to crush their enemies rather than trying to bring them in from the cold.

William Tucker, recently embedded with US troops in Iraq, compares the US colonial occupation of that country with its experience in the Philippines and concludes that Iraq is unlikely to be a succcess.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases the Iraqi press for 3 April:

"Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 370-word report citing a senior Iraqi official source saying that the Saudi King has rejected an offer from President Bush to visit Saudi Arabia because the king wants to cooperate with US democrats. . . Al-Muwatin on 2 April publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,500-word report entitled "Terrorist Groups Impose Fatwas Banning Drinking Cold Water, Smoking, Shaving, Using Computers, Satellites on Diyala Residents; In Tall Afar, Curfew Imposed, Schools, State Offices Closed, Prime Minister's Visit Anticipated." Al-Muwatin on 2 April carries on the front page a 260-word report citing President Talabani confirming that the Al-Mahdi Army has stopped its operations since the inauguration of the Law Enforcement Plan. The report cites Vice President urging Sunni insurgents to stop their attacks on Shiites. Al-Muwatin on 2 April runs on the front page a 200-word report citing Baha al-A'raji, parliament member from the Al-Sadr Bloc, criticizing the government for not investing in the initial success of the Law Enforcement Plan to attack terrorist strongholds in Baghdad. . . Dar al-Salam carries on page 5 a 140-word report entitled "Shiite Turkomans Council Holds Kurds Responsible for Tall Afar Bombings." . . Al-Zaman runs on the front page a 300-word report citing former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi criticizing the deployment of additional US forces in Iraq and doubting the success of the Law Enforcement Plan. . . Al-Zaman carries on the front page a 400-word report entitled "Al-Sadr trend Calls for Public Conference To End Deteriorations in Al-Diwaniyah Governorate." . . Al-Mashriq runs on page 3 a 650-word report citing a member at Kirkuk Governorate Council calling for Kirkuk to be a special region with joint administration including, Arab, Turkoman, and Kurds. . . Al-Muwatin on 2 April publishes on page 4 a 220-word report on the demonstration organized by Basra University students on 1 April to protest against British forces for raiding the university campus. Al-Muwatin on 2 April carries on page 4 a 130-word report entitled "Anti-Tank Mines Seized in Maysan Governorate." Al-Muwatin on 2 runs on page 4 a 200-word report citing a security source confirming that the Maysan criminal Court has sentenced two drug dealers to 15 years. Al-Bayyinah runs on page 2 a 750-word report citing Sunnis in Diyala warning against the attempts by the "Islamic State of Iraq" to seize their mosques and kill them like Shiites in the governorate. Al-Bayyinah carries on page 4 a 330-word report citing a security source in Ninawah saying that unidentified gunmen have managed to control the Abu Tammam Telephone Exchange in Mosul. Al-Bayyinah carries on page 4 a 700-word report saying that security agencies in Al-Diwaniyah held a security conference to discuss the deteriorating security situation in the governorate. Al-Mashriq runs on page 5 a 560-word report on the increasing oil smuggling operations in Basra. Al-Adala carries on the last page an 80-word report citing the Trade Ministry erected technical and electronic equipment on its food-rationed trucks to protect them robbery. Al-Zaman carries on page 2 a 400-word report entitled "Al-Nasiriyah Textile Factory Workers Organize Demonstration Demanding Salary Increase." Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 700-word report entitled "Mosul's Humble Hotels Accommodate Displaced, Poor Families; Services Absent, Tourism Stars Appear in Daylight." . . Al-Mashriq runs on page 4 a 1,300-word report on the begging phenomenon that has increased on Iraqi streets due to the poor security conditions. . . Al-Sabah carries on page 14 a 1,000-word report citing citizens complaining about the increase of prices in Iraqi markets. Al-Sabah carries on page 14 a 130-word report citing an official source in the Kurdistan Region saying that the region will sign oil investment contracts with 15 oil companies. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole in Salon: Iran's New Hostage Crisis

My column, "Iran's new hostage crisis," is out at Salon.com.

Excerpt:

' The capture by Iranian Revolutionary Guards of 15 British sailors and marines on March 23 has set off a diplomatic crisis and mobilized the public in both Britain and Iran . . . Why would the Iranian leadership risk such a confrontation over a minor issue? . . .

With Iran facing huge challenges at home (an economy in tatters) and abroad (mounting pressure over its nuclear program), Ahmadinejad and his reluctant patron, the Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, desperately needed a diversion. . .

Ahmadinejad's alienation of potential Iranian supporters such as Russia and China with his regular undignified rants against Israel and the West has cost Iran dearly at the United Nations Security Council, which has voted for a series of potentially serious economic sanctions in response to Tehran's attempts to enrich uranium for nuclear energy. Iranians, who saw how oil-rich Iraq was reduced to a fourth-world country by U.N. sanctions in the 1990s, are anxious about their own fate.

Ahmadinejad's domestic and foreign policy failures have emboldened his enemies, especially Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president (1989-1997) who now heads the clerical "senate" called the Expediency Council. Rafsanjani has taken to openly denouncing Ahmadinejad's policies. Even the president's own right-wing supporters are threatening to vote down his budget, which contains another 20 percent increase in public spending.

A lot of Iranians could not care less about Khomeini's clerical ideology at this point, but most are still intensely nationalistic. Given all the student protests against hard-line policies in recent times, it must be sweet indeed for the ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad to see universities become the sites of anti-British denunciations. '

See also Gary Kamiya's Last Chance for Middle East Peace

and

Glenn Greenwald on persistent lies on the Right about US public opinion regarding withdrawing from Iraq.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

21 Shiites from McCain's Market Killed
3 US Troops Killed
Massive Truck Bomb at Kirkuk

Remember that Baghdad market visited on Sunday by Senator John McCain to show how calm things are? James Hider of the London Times writes, , "21 Shia market workers were ambushed, bound and shot dead north of the capital. The victims came from the Baghdad market [Shurja] visited the previous day by John McCain, the US presidential candidate, who said that an American security plan in the capital was starting to show signs of progress."

Kirk Semple of the NYT bothered to actually interview the merchants at Shurja market. They were surprised at Indiana congressman Mike Pence's characterization of it as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime . . .”

Yeah, those Indianans are hard core. Why, they'll kidnap a couple dozen Methodists at the outdoor market, blindfold them, drill holes in them, expose them to acid, and dump them on Main Street just before dawn to get a rise out of the police patrolmen when they show up for coffee and donuts.

If I were from Indiana, I'd be rather angry about Pence's comparison, and would vote him out in the next election.

In Kirkuk, Hider of the Times says, a huge truck bombing killed 14 and wounded 130, many of them children at a nearby school. [Late reports put the death toll at 15]:

' Buthayna Mahmud, 10, was horrified to see the bodies of her classmates strewn on the ground in flames. “Everyone I saw was wearing the blue school uniform drenched with blood. Some of their dresses were torn. I only saw fire. I heard teachers and students shouting,” she said. “When we rushed out of the school, we saw pupils on the ground, some of them burning.” “We were at the last lesson and we heard the explosion. I saw two of my classmates sitting near the window. They fell on the floor, drenched in blood,” said Naz Omar, a girl in the fifth form. “They could not speak. I was terrified. I said, ‘God is Great. I need my mother. I need my father’.” '

The Kirkuk bombing comes in the context of rising tensions over the Kurdish plan to annex the province, over the objections of the Turkmen and Arabs, as Iraqslogger notes. This source also discusses dissent inside the Sadr Movement over Muqtada's decision to cooperate with the new security plan.

Iraqi guerrillas killed 3 US troops on Monday.

Reuters reports other political violence in Iraq on Monday.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iranian Television: Surge of Violence in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates an Iranian program discussing the increase of political violence in Iraq.

Iranian Al-Alam TV 'Iraq Today' Program on Surge of Violence Al-Alam Television Monday, April 2, 2007 Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic at 1330 GMT on 1 April broadcast its "Iraq Today" program which discussed the "escalating violence in Iraq." The guests were analyst Ali al-Yasiri and Hazim al-Samarra'i, a London-based political analyst. Later, Shaykh Muhammad Taqi al-Mawla, member of the parliament security and defense committee and a SCIRI leading figure, and Maryam al-Rayyis, an advisor to the Iraqi prime minister, joined the discussion over the telephone. The presenter introduced the program with the following as the points of discussion: "What are the reasons behind the grave escalation of violence in Iraq although over two months have elapsed since the security plan was first implemented? What is the role of the occupation in the deterioration of the security situation? What is the significance of Saudi King Abdallah's remarks that Iraq is under occupation? How to interpret this escalation in violence which coincided with calls by some political forces on Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to make concessions? Why has the Arab summit ignored Iraq and its state of lawlessness?" The program contained a report which said that the recent blasts in Tall Afar and Baghdad had left some 400 people dead and about 1,000 wounded. Al-Yasiri drew a gloomy picture of the situation in Iraq, noting the "support" which "terrorists" received from networks based in the UAE. He also referred to "Ba'thist groups in alliance with takfiri and Salafi groups operating in Egypt, Yemen and Sudan". He further criticized the Iraqi political parties over their "failure to defend the interests of the Iraqi nation", adding that the parliament was "passive" and had "failed" to meet the ambitions of the Iraqis. He was of the opinion that it was right to focus on Baghdad in controling the security situation but that attention should also be paid to the other provinces. Shaykh Muhammad Taqi al-Mawla attributed the deterioration in the security situation to, among other things, the "interference in Iraq's affairs by neighbouring countries some other regional countries". He stressed that the parliament was not weak but "some forces pretend to be part of the political process, while they in fact cooperate with or hatch terrorism". Hazim al-Samarra'i blamed the "occupation" for "inciting sectarian strife" to "justify its presence" in Iraq. He also criticized the security services for being "infiltrated" by "militias" and that some members of these services were involved in killing civilians following the Tall Afar attack. Maryam al-Rayyis, Al-Maliki's advisor, admitted that there were shortcomings, but stressed that there were also positive efforts by the security services to "eliminate terrorist groups". She also praised the "encouraging" activity in the predominantly Sunni Province of Al-Anbar to face the insurgency. (Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic -- IRIB's 24-hour Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience).

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Hope is not A Plan

Thomas Mowle's edited book, Hope is not a Plan, is now available. Below is the amazon.com blurb. I have heard Mowle speak at a conference and his insights are invaluable.

Book Description
From the outset, the war in Iraq was directed from Washington and executed by troops on the ground. Between Washington and the battlefields was the Green Zone, a four-square-mile enclave that hosted the American Embassy annex, the Iraqi Reconstruction Management Office, the planning, policy, strategy, and communications sections of Headquarters, Multi-national Force-Iraq, and the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq.

Hope Is Not a Plan takes the reader inside the Green Zone courtesy of participant-observers brought to Iraq to diagnose the insurgency and develop a get-well plan. Focusing on the critical months of late 2004 and early 2005 --when a new sovereign government in Iraq tried to build legitimacy, and the coalition force tried to find the best way to help it do so--it looks at a slice of the war not previously examined.

This is not the Beltway story, nor the grunt and jarhead story. Rather, the book looks at the process of taking political and military goals and turning them into action. In telling that story, Hope Is Not a Plan helps explain how Iraq got to where it is today. Organized by topic rather than on a strict chronological basis, it is practical, not theoretical, examining doctrines and lessons learned, not abstractions of the ivory tower. The book describes what happened in the Green Zone during this period and compares that reality with what history, experience, and doctrine suggests should have happened. Finally, it reflects on what can be learned from the experience. Rich in detail, the book is written to be accessible to anyone interested in first-hand information about the workings of a coalition staff during wartime--or to anyone who wants to understand how things in Iraq went so very wrong.

About the Author
THOMAS MOWLE is Associate Professor of Political Science at the United States Air Force Academy. He received his Ph.D. from The Ohio State University. His research focuses on Iraq, transatlantic relations, and foreign policy decision making. He has published Allies at Odds: The United States and the European Union (2004), as well as articles in International Studies Perspectives, Political Psychology, Strategic Insights, and Disarmament, and chapters in books on Iraq, Bosnia, Turkish foreign policy, and U.S. arms control policy. He served in the Strategy, Plans, and Assessment Division, Headquarters Multinational Force-Iraq, Baghdad, from August to December 2004.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Increase in Iraq Deaths Despite Surge
6 US GIs killed over weekend
McCain Continues Magical Mystery Tour

For all those journalists and politicians who keep insisting that there are new "glimmers" of "hope" in Iraq because of the new security plan started 6 weeks ago, here is a sobering statistic from the Iraqi government. (I'm looking at you, John McCain. See below for more on McCain).

Iraqis killed in February: 1806 (64.5/day)
Iraqis killed in March: 2078 (67/day)

As the wire services report, that is a 15% increase if figured by the month. I provided the figures, above, to show that it is an increase even if figured by the day (4%). (I should have, in the earlier version of this post, highlighted the latter in the exposition rather than getting carried away by the wire service headline, as some readers have kindly or sometimes acerbically insisted.)

(Of course, the real numbers are much higher than these government statistics suggest, since passive information gathering on casualties only catches a fraction).

While 44 Iraqi soldiers died in action, the total for US troops in March was 85. AFP is suspicious about the disparity given that US and Iraqi authorities have said that Iraqi troops are leading the security crackdown. If that were true, they should have more casualties than the Americans.

Killings in Baghdad have declined a bit, and death squad murders at night have been impeded, so that fewer bodies are found on the streets in the morning. But car bombing casualties rose. And, some of the violence was displaced from the capital to other cities, such as Baqubah and Mosul, which explains why the total is up so much. The US withdrew some 3,000 troops from Mosul last summer to concentrate them in Baghdad, and since then Mosul seems to me to have become increasingly insecure. It is Iraq's second largest city.

So the over-all death toll has actually increased since the surge began.

Another cautionary note is that major attacks on Shiites in the capital and elsewhere seem to me to be way up. They may not take revenge immediately, but they will eventually. That the US has forced the Shiite militias off the street will be held against America, since Iraqis conclude that they are being killed because the Americans are not letting them defend themselves.

Iraqi politician Ahmad Chalabi told the Associated Press that he met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and 3 other grand ayatollahs in Najaf on Sunday, and that they rejected a measure recently passed by the Iraqi cabinet offering to reinstate Baath officials to their jobs in government if they severed links to the insurgency. Chalabi is quoted as reporting, "The grand ayatollahs said it is dangerous for the criminals to return to leading posts in the state." Chalabi has often proved himself willing to lie, as when he hoodwinked the US into invading Iraq on false pretences, and was indicted in Jordan and Switzerland for embezzling $300 million from his Petra bank. Nevertheless, this particular statement is likely true, since one of Sistani's clerical aides underlined the position in his Friday prayers sermon a few days ago (I blogged it Saturday). The majority Shiites in parliament, and their Kurdish allies, would already be reluctant to pass the provision, since they have a grudge against the Baath Party, which persecuted them and killed their relatives. Sistani's opposition may well doom the measure, which the Bush administration had set as one of four benchmarks it wanted the al-Maliki government to achieve by June.

Iraqi guerrillas killed 6 US GIs on Saturday and Sunday in the Baghdad area.

A British soldier was also killed on Sunday, in the south down at Basra.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday. Among the bloodier episodes:

* Police found 16 bodies in Baghdad, victims of sectarian death squads

* Sunni Arab guerrillas set up a fake checkpoint in Baquba, northeast of the capital, and kidnapped 19 Shiite civilians from a nearby village.

* Kamikazes detonated two suicide truck bombs near Mosul at an Iraqi army base, killing 2 and wounding 17 (the wounded were mostly soldiers).

* Omar al-Juburi, a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, barely escaped assassination by roadside bomb in western Baghdad.

This grandstanding trip that John McCain took to Baghdad on Sunday is another occasion for propaganda to shore up his falling poll numbers in his presidential campaign. He said, "Things are better and there are encouraging signs. I've been here . . . many times over the years. Never have I been able to drive from the airport, never have I been able go out into the city as I was today."

He said that only three days after the US embassy issued an order that personnel are to wear 'personal protective equipment' when moving between buildings inside the Green Zone! He said it the day two suicide belt bombs were found inside the Green Zone. So he could ride in an armored car in from the airport. That's the big achievement? What about when he gets to the Green Zone? Then he has to put on PPE to go to the cafeteria.

Look, I lived in the midst of a civil war in the late 1970s in Beirut. I know exactly what it looks and smells like. The inexperienced often assume that when a guerrilla war or a civil war is going on, life grinds to a standstill. Not so. People go shopping for food. They drive where they need to go as long as they don't hear that there is a firefight in that area. They go to work if they still have work. Life goes on. It is just that, unexpectedly, a mortar shell might land near you. Or the person ahead of you in line outside the bakery might fall dead, victim of a sniper's bullet. The bazaars are bustling some days (all the moreso because it is good to stock up on supplies the days when the violence isn't so bad). So nothing that John McCain saw in Baghdad on Sunday meant a damn thing. Not a goddamn thing.

It makes my blood boil.

Because McCain, you see, knows exactly what I know about guerrilla wars and civil wars. Hell, people used to shop freely in Saigon in the early 1970s! And if he is saying what he is saying, it is because he is attempting to convey an overly optimistic picture with which to deceive the American public.

The deception will get even more of our young men and women in uniform blown up, at a time when their mission has become murky and undefined. If the American public sacrifices the lives of the troops with their eyes open, for what they see as the sake of the security of the United States, then the loss of life is regrettable but the mission is clear, defined, and has public support. But if the American public is lied to and only thinks a mission is being accomplished as a result, then the sacrifice of soldiers' lives is monstrous. The Iraq War has become monstrous in this way. And John McCain, whom I had long respected as a straight shooter, has now been seduced into playing illusionist with the lives of our troops.

I have a great deal of admiration for General Petraeus. I believe he really cares about the welfare of Iraqis, that he knows something serious about counter-insurgency, and that he will do the very best he can to restore security to Baghdad. I don't think the key is the extra 17,500 troops, but how exactly the troops already there are deployed. But according to press reports, he laughs when people ask him if the surge is working yet. He knows that it is a long haul. And he also implied that if he thinks it isn't working by June, or the Iraqi government hasn't done everything it could by then, he may have some tough decisions to make, since he can't go on risking his troops' lives for a mission that isn't getting done.

That's what McCain should be saying. That it is too early to tell, militarily. He should let us hear the doubt in his voice. And that if it doesn't work, if al-Maliki doesn't step up, then the US troops will come first. I don't hear that kind of realism, and dedication to the welfare of the troops, from McCain. I used to, when he wasn't running for president. He isn't going to be president, and the albatross of this war he has bought into is why. Not only because it is an unpopular war, but because he cannot see it in a clear-eyed way. We don't need any more presidents with big blinders on.

Kyra Phillips, who is CNN's correspondent in Baghdad, bravely took on McCain and the retired generals who are peddling this horse manure about how improved the situation in Iraq is, on Sunday on Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer. The transcript:

[Blitzer]: In Iraq, meanwhile, earlier today, Senator John McCain and some other Republican congressmen spent some time getting a personal view of the security on the streets of Baghdad, elsewhere. Joining us, now, from Baghdad, CNN's own Kyra Phillips. Kyra, you've had a chance to hear what Senator McCain and his delegation have to say today. First of all, update our viewers, Kyra, on what their bottom line is. KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's what's interesting, Wolf. And this is what I'm taking away from all of this, as I listen to these politicians and also go out onto the streets throughout Baghdad and greater Baghdad, is that it's very easy to go into certain areas and say things are improving. For example, I went into Dora Market yesterday with General David Petraeus. Things are improving. Shops are opening up. But, still, Al Qaida is active in the area. They're still dealing with a death squad. So, I could see a John McCain coming forward today, like he did, saying, look, I'm not saying this is mission accomplished, but there's still a lot going on. There's still a lot of challenges. There's still a lot of danger. It's the easy answer, Wolf, for anybody. There are improvements going on throughout this country, but, also, there are incredible security challenges and violence that plagues this country. BLITZER: Kyra, when you went out with General Petraeus this weekend and you walked around some streets in Baghdad, describe for us how much security he and you had. PHILLIPS: I would probably say triple the presidential entourage, Wolf. (LAUGHTER) Now, I'm exaggerating a little bit, but in all seriousness, outer, inner, and perimeter security; sniper teams, personal security guards, humvees, helicopters -- you name it. That man cannot travel this country without security. And he even said to me, you know, we'd be in a lot of trouble -- all these men around me would be in a lot of trouble if anything happened to me. There's a great responsibility. He is the general commanding all U.S. forces in Iraq. He has to have security. Anywhere he goes, he must be protected because he's the man in charge of all the military action that's happening in this country. So, yes, we went through Dora Market, and we had security everywhere. He wore a soft cap. I didn't wear a helmet. We felt comfortable. Why? We had lots of security. BLITZER: But for average -- I take it then -- correct me if I'm wrong, Kyra, and you've been there for a few weeks now -- for a U.S. soldier to simply leave his or her base and get into a car and drive to a coffee shop... PHILLIPS: No, forget it. BLITZER: ... go to a restaurant and just meet with a bunch of friends. That's outrageous? PHILLIPS: No. That's a pipe dream, Wolf. I mean, I wish -- even driving down the streets of Baghdad, you see the closed-down restaurants. People aren't going to -- whether you're a journalist, whether you're military, whether you're a leader in this country, whether you're an Iraqi civilian, you are taking a risk. I talked to shop owners on the streets. I can only stay there a short time. Sometimes I can't even go there at all. I'm a target. I'm an American. But even the Iraqis say, yes, I have to come to work, but every day I'm worried something is going to happen to me. Everybody is at risk. There is not one type of individual that is safe in this country, including the extremists.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Justice Minister Resigns over Political Deadlock;
Talabani: Success in Talks with Sunni Guerrillas

Iraqi Justice Minister Hashem al-Shibli, has resigned. A Sunni, he represented the Iraqi National List of Iyad Allawi. The BBC suggests that one of his motives was the contradiction between his constitutional duty to oversee the upcoming referendum in Kirkuk Province concerning its possible annexation to the Kurdistan Regional Government, and his own party's opposition to the referendum.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Iraqi parliamentarians are rebelling against the decision of the cabinet on Thursday to implement article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which provides for a referendum in Kirkuk Province on whether to join the Kurdistan Regional Government. The Iraqi National List of Iyad Allawi (25 seats), the [Sunni] Iraqi Accord Front of Adnan Dulaimi (44 seats) and the [Shiite] United Iraqi Alliance of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim were involved in Saturday's discussions. That is, the Arab MPs are rethinking their approval of article 140. It would not be in the constitution unless the Shiite fundamentalists of the United Iraqi Alliance had agreed to allow it in summer, 2005.

Al-Hayat says that al-Shibli's resignation reflects negatively on the Iraqi political scene. In resigning, he said that "the political process is heading toward a deadend," casting doubt on the ability of the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki "to achieve a genuine national reconciliation."

Meanwhile, President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, maintains that some Sunni Arab guerrilla groups have reached out to the government and indicated a willingness to give up their arms and join the political process. (Talabani has said these things before, but it is hard to see in what way these contacts are yielding any practical political gains.)

Al-Hayat quotes Iraqi government sources as saying that "The negotiation map now ongoing concentrates on opening channels of contact with outside forces deriving from three pivots: Dissident Baathists from the Saddam Hussein period or before it, such as Salah Umar al-Ali, Muhammad Dabdab, and others; Baathists who fled abroad from Iraq after the American occupation of 2003; and winning over those who split from Saddam's vice president, Izzat al-Duri, who are led by Muhammad Yunis al-Ahmad, Muzhir Matani `Awad (both formerly members of the leadership) and the former minister `Abd al-Tawwab al-Mullah Huwaysh."

Talabani is also said to be in contact with cells of the "Islamic State of Iraq" in al-Anbar Province. He is seeking to take advantage of the split introduced when the al-Zawba' tribe, which supplies the fighters of the 1920 Revolution Brigade, joined the opposition to "al-Qaeda" or the Salafi religious revivalists.

They said that the "Islamic Army" group is now fighting al-Qaeda in Dur, Samarra, al-Alam, Tuz Khurmato and al-Dulu'iyyah, and the tribes of al-Dayiniyah and al-Izzah in Diyala. Other groups with which there have been contacts include the 1920 Revolution Brigades, the Black Banners, the Army of the Orthodox Caliphs, and the Umar Brigades, with whom an attempt is being made to mobilize them against the Islamic State in Iraq.

[Al-Hayat has been issuing this same report for over a year, about contacts with the Sunni Arab guerrillas, and it is hard to see what has come of it all.]

Al-Hayat says that political violence left 37 Iraqis dead on Saturday.

Reuters reports the following incidents among many others:

' KIRKUK - Gunmen ambushed a vehicle carrying civilian workers employed at an Iraqi military base near Hawija, 70 km (43 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, killing eight and wounding two, police said. Four brothers were among the dead.

MAHMUDIYA - Three mortar bombs hit a residential area in Mahmudiya, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, killing two people and wounding four, police said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed five people and wounded 22 outside the Sadrayn hospital in the Shi'ite district of Sadr City in Baghdad, police said.

HILLA - A car bomb killed four people and wounded 23 in the Shi'ite city of Hilla, 100 km (62 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

TUZ KHURMATO - A suicide car bomb targeting Shi'ite day labourers killed two people and wounded 11 in the town of Tuz Khurmato, 70 km (43 miles) south of Kirkuk, police said.'

McClatchy reports more political violence, including incidents in Diyala Province. Police found 10 bodies on the streets of the capital on Saturday.

AP reports that former appointed prime minister of Iraq, Iyad Allawi, has spoken critically of the United States. He and his bloc are pushing back against the new petroleum bill, which the US government wants the al-Maliki government to shepherd through the Iraqi parliament.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.