Glasgow Airport Incident

Apparent car bombing attack at Glasgow Airport. The two drivers appear to have been arrested.

The eyewitness description suggests rank amateurs with no training. They didn't actually get close enough to do much damage, and their behavior suggests that something went very wrong-- what with one of them on fire and trying to get into the trunk.

Larry Johnson points out that Friday's similar incident in London was similarly a SNAFU.

Long may terrorists be clueless screw-ups who can't start fires in cars because they leave the windows rolled up and starve the flames of oxygen, and who scramble around to manually detonate things while on fire themselves.

Just remember what screw-ups these guys are when Alberto Gonzales comes to you with a plea to repeal the Bill of Rights in order to deal with them.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Mika: Iraq is More Important

Bravo Mika Brzezinski, the anchor who refused to read a story about the release from jail of socialite Paris Hilton as the lede on her MSNBC news program.

Click in the middle of the video to play.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Bloc Pulls out of Government
US Raids Sadr City, Kills 26
Talabani Slams Arab Neighbors

Early Saturday morning, US forces raided into Shiite Sadr City, presumably challenging Mahdi Army commanders. They killed 26 in the course of the action. The Mahdi Army is loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who calls for a quick US withdrawal from Iraq.

The Iraqi Accord Front, the Sunni fundamentalist bloc with 44 seats in parliament, says that it is withdrawing its 6 cabinet ministers from the national unity government of PM Nuri al-Maliki.

The whole concept of a 'national unity government' as thought up by then US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani in spring of 2006 has now more or less fallen apart. The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance has lost two important components, the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) and the Sadr Movement. The former pulled their 15 MPs out of the alliance, the latter pulled its 6 cabinet ministers out of the government. Now the Sunni Arabs appear to be decamping, to protest the arrest of one of their own (on charges of having the sons of a fellow Sunni MP whacked).

The "surge" was intended to 'create political space' for 'reconciliation' between Sunnis and Shiites. Now the only Sunnis who were willing to cooperate with the political process are threatening to pull out of the al-Maliki government. Wouldn't that be going backward? Then what is the 'surge' for?

The killing of 5 US troops in an ambush by Iraq guerrillas was announced on Friday, making the past quarter the deadliest for American soldiers since the war began (see also William Blanchard's comments on this issue at IC yesterday-- scroll down). McClatchy reports other political violence on Friday.

Two years later, the injuries he sustained in Iraq finally killed Sgt. Frank Sandoval.

While the Bush administration keeps hinting around that Iran is at the root of the problems in Iraq, Iraqi president Jalal Talabani is telling it like it is. He blamed Iraq's Arab neighbors for conniving at the destabilization of the country, in part out of anti-Shiite prejudice. Talabani recently visited Iran, which which he has excelent relations.

I guess Talabani didn't get the memo.

Muqtada al-Sadr has postponed his proposed 'million man march' on the largely Sunni Arab city of Samarra north of Baghdad. The USG Open Source Center translated the comments of a Sadrist leader as carried on al-Iraqiya Television:

--At 1107 GMT, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television conducts a live interview by phone with Shaykh Salah al-Ubaydi, spokesman for the Martyr Al-Sadr Office in Holy Al-Najaf, for comment on Muqtada al-Sadr's decision to call off the Samarra march, which was slated to kick off in early July. When asked about the reasons that prompted the cancellation of the Samarra march by Muqtada al-Sadr, Al-Ubaydi says: "Due to the many requests and appeals made to the Martyr Al-Sadr Office, and also due to the government's failure to secure the road to Samarra, Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr decided to call off this visit, which was titled A visit on the Birthday Anniversary of Al-Zahra [the Prophet's daughter], may God's peace be upon her. Meanwhile, the faithful reserve the right to visit the holy mausoleums , particularly in Samarra. The notion that takfiris sought to consolidate is to turn this place into a place that is virtually a no-go place to Iraqis, to Shiites, and to Sunni lovers of Ahl al-Bayt (household of the Prophet Muhammad). They wanted to deny people access to the shrine, and to prevent them from visiting the mausoleums of the two infallible imams in Samarra. The moves that we made-- the call for making the visit, sticking to this call, and then canceling it due to the failure to secure the road leading to Samarra--were meant to consolidate this right and to insist on it." When asked about possible future decisions regarding the Samarra march that could be made by the Al-sadr Office, Al-Ubaydi says: "The decision to make the visit on the birthday anniversary of Al-Zahra has been cancelled. In the future, when, God willing, the appropriate opportunity presents itself, we will take the initiative and be the first to visit Samarra. We affirmed that the visit to Samarra and the call for making the visit should aim to achieve fraternity and accord among Iraqis. Whoever misinterpreted this move as an attempt to revoke the Sunni character of the city, or to strike at Sunni brothers there were engaged in addressing unfounded notions and rumors. What we are trying to do, and what we are reiterating through calling for making the visit, and also through calling it off is that we seek to demonstrate our good faith in all our moves toward all Iraqis, God willing."

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Shaykh Ahmad Safi, the representative of Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Karbala, spoke in his Friday sermon of the security operation in Diyala province. He said it was going well, but warned Iraqi troops against withdrawing from dissident neighborhoods and allowing the guerrillas to return, as had been done in the past. He also said his sources in Baquba told him that caches had been found of state-of-the-art weapons as the guerrillas retreated. Where did these come from, he asked. He concluded that surrounding (Sunni Arab) states must be supplying them to the Sunni Arab guerrillas. They came in, he said, across Iraqi borders or through Iraqi air space that the Iraqi military did not control. He demanded a return by the US of Iraqi sovereignty over its own air space and borders, so that this smuggling of sophisticated weapons could be stopped. He also questioned whether the alleged $19 bn. in US military aid to Iraq had actually been spent for the approved purpose, of building the Iraqi military, implying that it had been embezzled or never actually granted. The tone of this representative of Sistani has become increasingly bitter toward the American inability to supply public order and security in Iraq. This is the first time I've heard of a representative of Sistani demanding a return by the Americans of Iraqi sovereignty over its air space.

McClatchy reports expert doubts on the wisdom of putting too many eggs in the basket of tribal sheikhs in Iraq, given their famed independence and loyalty mainly to the tribe. The meeting between the sheikhs and Shiite leaders in the Mansur Hotel on Monday that got bombed came as a surprise to the US military, the sheikhs' supposed ally. All this is not to mention that the tribes have a segmentary political system in which infighting and feuding and kaleidoscopic alliances and break-ups are common.

Editor & Publisher on the increased US by military and Bush spokesmen of the term "al-Qaeda" as a means of describing the guerrilla movement among Sunni Arabs in Iraq.

And that allegation that "al-Qaeda" blew up the minarets of the al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra? Maybe, maybe not. No proof for it. (My own money is on the Baathis.)

Four female ex-employees of Kellog, Brown and Root (KBR),formerly a subsidiary of Halliburton, have filed suit alleging sexual harassment while in Iraq. KBR contests the charges, and Halliburton, which sold KBR after receiving $9 bn. in no-bid government contracts for work in Iraq (which probably saved it from bankruptcy), says that it had nothing to do with Iraq. Thanks for the memories, Halliburton, or should we say, thanks for the amnesia? The former CEO of Halliburton, 1995-2000, is . . . VP Dick Cheney.

Post-Fetal Abortion Ban could shut down Iraq War. Pro-life legislation through age 20.
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Hacking Muqtada

The USG Open Source Center reports on the hacking of the Sadr Movement's website and its hijacking for anti-Shiite polemics. Cyberwar as part of the Iraq War is nothing new, as I noted in this column last February. The sectarian civil war in Iraq is being fought at every level, from poisoned watermelons and dog-bombs, to decapitated bodies, to DOS attacks and hacking web sites.

Iraq: Al-Sadr Website Hacked; Hacker Says Shiite Sites To Face Same 'Fate' Iraq-- OSC Summary Friday, June 29, 2007 When checked on 29 June, Al-Sadr website, www.alsader.com, which used to post statements and news of Muqtada al-Sader, was found to be hacked. The site now has a black background with the following written on the homepage: "Peace be upon you God damn Shiites wherever they may reside or go May they and this site of theirs never rise for as long as I live, God willing This will be the fate of all their sites, God willing." The hacker, who calls himself "Billy", posts a hyperlinked e-mail address as shown in the below snapshot of the homepage. Homepage of hacked Al-Sadr website Under the headline "Shia Scandals", the hacker cites paragraphs from a book by Al-Khomeini.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bomb Defused in London

As I write, London police are using a robot to investigate a parked car near Buckingham Palace. The operation comes hours after a car was discovered packed with explosives and ready to detonate outside a nightclub in Picadilly Circus.

The proper response of Americans to these events? Book a vacation in London immediately and make sure to visit Picadilly Circus.

Whoever planned this operation at the height of the tourist season is trying to hurt the UK economy.

Britain is perfectly safe, in fact the murder rate there, including political violence, is one-fourth that of the US. A ticket to the UK can be found inexpensively and there are reasonable places to stay, and as urban historians have pointed out, London is a giant toy that is endless fun to play with.

In solidarity.
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Bush Turns Iraq into Israel/Palestine;
Gaffe endangers US Troops

Bush said in a speech on Thursday that he hopes Iraq will be like Israel, a democracy that faces terrorist violence but manages to retain its democratic character:

' In Israel, Bush said, "terrorists have taken innocent human life for years in suicide attacks. The difference is that Israel is a functioning democracy and it's not prevented from carrying out its responsibilities. And that's a good indicator of success that we're looking for in Iraq." '

These words may be the stupidest ones ever uttered by a US president. Given their likely impact on the US war effort in the Middle East, they are downright criminal.

The US political elite just doesn't get it. Israel is not popular in the Middle East, and it isn't because Middle Easterners are bigots. It is because Israel is coded as the last European colonial presence in the region, an heir to French Algeria, British Egypt, and Dutch Indonesia-- and because the Israelis pugnaciously continue to try to colonize neighboring bits of territory. (This enmity is not inevitable or eternal; in 2002 the Arab League offered full recognition of Israel in return for its going back to 1967 borders, but the Israeli government turned down the offer.) But for the purposes of this analysis it does not really matter why Israel is unpopular. Let us just stipulate that it is. Why would you associate American Iraq with such an unpopular project, if you were trying to do public diplomacy in the region? Bush had just announced a new push to get the American message out to the Muslim world, the day before.

Let's just take the analogy seriously for a moment. Israel proper is a democracy of sorts, though its 1 million Arab citizens are in a second class position. But it rules over several million stateless Palestinians who lack even the pretence of self-rule. It is hard to characterize a country as a democracy when it has millions of disenfranchised subjects. Bush manages to only think about Jewish Israelis in the above analogy, wiping out millions of other residents of geographical Palestine who don't get to participate in 'democracy' or exercise popular sovereignty.

It is true that the Israelis managed to blunt the terror attacks of Islamic Jihad, the Qassam Brigades, and the al-Aqsa Martyrs brigades over the years after the eruption of the 2nd Intifada. But there are still attacks, including by rocket. The reason for those attacks is that the Palestinians had mostly been driven from their homes and off their land, and were militarily, politically and economically subjected to the Israelis. The Israelis reduced the terror attacks by essentially imprisoning millions of stateless Palestinians in the territories, further restricting their movements, destroying their trade and livelihoods. The Israeli government continues to grab Palestinian land and put more colonists on it, even as we speak.

Israel-Palestine is among the world's hottest trouble spots, and the conflict has poisoned politics throughout the Middle East. It was among the motives for Bin Laden's attack on the US on September 11, so it has spilled over on America, too. A second one of those would be a good thing?

So who would play the Palestinians in Bush's analogy? Obviously, it would be the Sunni Arabs, who apparently are meant to be cordoned off from the rest of Iraqis and put behind massive walls and barbed wire, and deprived of political power. That is not a desirable outcome and is not politically or militarily tenable in the long run.

And, let's just stop and think. Even if it were true that an Israel-Palestine sort of denouement were in Bush's mind for Iraq, was it wise for him to make it public?

That sort of scenario is precisely the propaganda message broadcast by the Jihadi websites in Iraq and the Arab world! They say that the US military occupation of Iraq, in alliance with Shiites, has turned the Sunni Arabs into Palestinians! Bush could not have handed the guerrillas a better rhetorical gift. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that DVD's of Bush's comments will be spread around as a recruiting tool for jihadis, and that US troops will certainly be killed as a result of this speech. You could say that the US military presence is already pretty unpopular in the Sunni Arab areas. But what of the progress in al-Anbar Province? Will Bush's speech help or hurt Sunni Arabs who want to ally with the US against the foreign Salafi Jihadis? Hurt, obviously.

If Bush had said something like that in 2002, you could have written it off as inexperience and lack of knowledge of the Middle East. But he has been the sitting president for so many years, and has had so much to do with the Middle East that this faux pas is just inexcusable. I don't know the man and can't judge if he is just not very bright. I can confirm that he says things that are not very bright. And, worse, he says things that are guaranteed to put more US troops into the grave in Diyala, Baghdad, Salahuddin and al-Anbar Provinces.

I don't know whether to sob in grief or tear my hair out in frustration. How much longer do we have to suffer?
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20 Decapitated Bodies Found;
Turks Brand US Biggest Threat;
Muqtada calls for a million Man march on Samarra

AP says at least 60 persons died in political violence in Iraq on Thursday. It is being reported that twenty decapitated bodies were found in Salman Pak south of Baghdad, in another macabre instance of sectarian death squad killings. McClatchy reports that 15 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad on Thursday. In Basra, British forces killed 5 persons in clashes. In Baghdad, roadside bombs and mortar attacks killed more individuals and left dozens wounded.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is still insisting on leading a million man march next Thursday to the large Sunni city of Samarra, north of Baghdad (where a major Shiite shrine has twice been bombed). Iraqi politicians have warned that it would be a very dangerous move, and the Iraqi government is urging that it be postponed until the security situation might allow it.

Muqtada issued a statement denying rumors circulating among Sunni Arabs that he wants to lead a mob up to Samarra who would toss Sunni Arab families out of their homes and settle Shiites there, turning it into a Shiite city.

The same al-Hayat article says that some families are beginng to flee Samarra for fear that it will become a sectarian battleground if the march goes forward.

The Sunni Sheikh Abd al-Sattar Abd al-Jabbar, member of the Council of Clergy of Iraq, charged that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps intended to surreptitiously join the million man march into the Sunni heartland and to commit acts of violence during the rally. [This is a wild and inaccurate charge; I don't believe there have been any IRGC fighters h\captured among the 19,000 guerrillas arrested by the US military.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is warning of a "vast and dangerous plot" by the "al-Qaeda" organization, which is preparing to move its activities to neighboring countries, though he did not name them.



The Voice of America reports that many in the Turkish public are worried that their military will make a cross-border incursion into Iraq to chase PKK Kurdish guerrillas holing up in Iraqi Kurdistan. Many doubt that such an incursion would actually resolve the problem of PKK terror attacks inside Turkey. The Turkish military has been shelling PKK positions in and around border villages inside Iraq, producing new refugees. Iraq didn't need more of those.

The VOA article contains the depressing statistic that in recent polls, Turks named the United States as th number one threat to their well-being, after the terrorist group, the PKK:

' In a recent opinion poll measuring what people in Turkey perceive as the country's biggest threat, the United States was first and Iraqi Kurds were second. Leyla Tausanoglu, a political columnist for the independent Cumhuriyet newspaper, says many Turks are skeptical of American plans because of the Iraq war, and are now suspicious of U.S. ties with Iraqi Kurdish leaders.'

Many Turks reason that the US is the military power in Iraq, and if 5,000 PKK guerrillas have safe harbor in Iraqi Kurdistan, it must mean that the US supports the PKK. (In fact, it is on the State Department list of terrorist organizations).

Before W. got into the White House and ruined the world, 56% of Turks had a favorable view of the United States and the country was a firm NATO ally. Last I knew, the favorability rating had fallen to 12%, largely because Turks are afraid Bush's misadventure in Iraq will blow back on them. Now they think the US is a greater threat to them than the major terrorist organization that has menaced them for the past 30 years! It would be like the English public saying the US is a greater threat than the Irish Republican Army, or the French public saying the US is a greater threat than the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (Groupe Islamique Armé).

You just want to weep and tear your hair out at the results of these polls around the world on what people think of the United States. It is as though they have concluded we are madmen bent on messing up their lives. And, well, we did put W. in power at least once. It is like a 4-year-old with ADD having the power to order the Pentagon to do things.

The Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, the Iraqi Accord Front, continues to insist on Mahmud al-Mashhadani as speaker of the Iraqi parliament, while the Shiite and Kurdish parties insist that he has been dismissed from that post. Al-Mashhadani was accused of assaulting other MPs and has a record of making inflammatory comments.
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Death surge: Iraq Coalition Forces Completing their deadliest Quarter:
Guest Editorial

William Blanchard writes:

In early April, 2006, the New York Times ran a front page article in the Sunday paper trumpeting declining casualty rates among the coalition troops in Iraq. March, 2006 had been an unusually quiet month, and the Times published a chart showing 6 consecutive months of declining fatalities. However, it was clear that the so-called trend was bogus. If the chart had shown 7 or more months, the trend would have all but vanished. As it turned out, April was one of the deadliest months of 2006, and the supposed decline was no longer mentioned. Now there is a much clearer trend, heading in the opposite direction. I suspect that lots of people had the same two reactions I had when the President Bush officially announced “the new way forward” (a.k.a. “the surge”) in January. My first reaction was, “it’s too little, too late”; and my second reaction was, “it's going to get a lot more of our soldiers killed.” Even pro-war analysts seemed to admit right out of the gates that the surge’s success was anything but assured. John McCain said if it had been up to him, there would have been more troops in the surge. Sidney Blumenthal reported in February on a group of policy planners meeting at the Pentagon, all of whom believed the surge was destined to fail. At his confirmation hearings, General Petraeus spoke of ominous emails from his friends and colleagues which said, “Congratulations - - I think”. President Bush himself said, while announcing his new strategy, ”The year ahead will demand more patience, sacrifice, and resolve.” Now we can start to see the sacrifices to which the President referred. We are about to complete the deadliest quarter of the Iraq war so far for the coalition troops in Iraq. We have reached 349 coalition fatalities for the past three calendar months, and with a more than a day left in June, the number is bound to go higher (It may be higher by the time you read this). The previous deadliest 3-month period was 11/04-1/05, during which there were 344 coalition fatalities. For the first time, coalition fatalities have been over 100 for three months in a row. We’ve never had two months in a row before with more than 100 fatalities. This will also be the deadliest 4-month period, with 431 coalition fatalities so far vs. 414 during 2/07-5/07 and 412 during 10/04-1/05. It will be the deadliest 5-month period, with 515 dead vs. 500 during 1/07-5/07 and 499 during 9/04-1/05. It will be the 2nd deadliest 6-month period, with 601 dead vs. 615 during 12/06-5/07 vs. 559 during 9/04-2/05. I didn't calculate 7 through 11 months, but it's worth noting that we are about to finish the deadliest 12-month period (calendar months) of the entire war, with 981 coalition fatalities so far. The previous deadliest 12-month period ended last month with 946 fatalities and before that it was 1/04-1/05 with 906 casualties. It will also be the deadliest 3-month period for US troops (vs all coalitition troops) with 324 US soldiers killed since 4/1/07 vs. 316 for 11/04-1/05. And the deadliest 12-month period for US troops (vs all coalitition troops) with 928 US troops killed since 7/1/06 vs 899 for the period ending last month and 837 for the 12-month period through 1/05. One explanation for the rise in troop deaths is simple math. With more troops in harm’s way, there are bound to be more fatalities. However, it’s not clear that we’ve actually had much of a surge at all. According to globalsecurity.org, we are currently at 162,000 troops “in country”, up from 132,000 in January, but just 2 months earlier, in November, 2006 we were at 152,000. And in December, 2005, we were at 160,000. There are other possible explanations. It could be that the new counterinsurgency tactics under General Petraeus leave the troops more vulnerable to attack. It could be that the attacks are just more numerous or more deadly than they have been in the past. Whatever the reason, it is certain that we will have to suffer many more months or years of the slow-motion train wreck which is President Bush’s invasion and occupation of Iraq.

- William Blanchard
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Neocons to Clinton: Launch War on Iraq (1998)

Open Letter to the President February 19, 1998

Dear Mr. President,

Many of us were involved in organizing the Committee for Peace and Security in the Gulf in 1990 to support President Bush's policy of expelling Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. Seven years later, Saddam Hussein is still in power in Baghdad. And despite his defeat in the Gulf War, continuing sanctions, and the determined effort of UN inspectors to fetter out and destroy his weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein has been able to develop biological and chemical munitions. To underscore the threat posed by these deadly devices, the Secretaries of State and Defense have said that these weapons could be used against our own people. And you have said that this issue is about "the challenges of the 21st Century."

Iraq's position is unacceptable. While Iraq is not unique in possessing these weapons, it is the only country which has used them -- not just against its enemies, but its own people as well. We must assume that Saddam is prepared to use them again. This poses a danger to our friends, our allies, and to our nation.

It is clear that this danger cannot be eliminated as long as our objective is simply "containment," and the means of achieving it are limited to sanctions and exhortations. As the crisis of recent weeks has demonstrated, these static policies are bound to erode, opening the way to Saddam's eventual return to a position of power and influence in the region. Only a determined program to change the regime in Baghdad will bring the Iraqi crisis to a satisfactory conclusion.

For years, the United States has tried to remove Saddam by encouraging coups and internal conspiracies. These attempts have all failed. Saddam is more wily, brutal and conspiratorial than any likely conspiracy the United States might mobilize against him. Saddam must be overpowered; he will not be brought down by a coup d'etat. But Saddam has an Achilles' heel: lacking popular support, he rules by terror. The same brutality which makes it unlikely that any coups or conspiracies can succeed, makes him hated by his own people and the rank and file of his military. Iraq today is ripe for a broad-based insurrection. We must exploit this opportunity.

Saddam's long record of treaty violations, deception, and violence shows that diplomacy and arms control will not constrain him. In the absence of a broader strategy, even extensive air strikes would be ineffective in dealing with Saddam and eliminating the threat his regime poses. We believe that the problem is not only the specifics of Saddam's actions, but the continued existence of the regime itself.

What is needed now is a comprehensive political and military strategy for bringing down Saddam and his regime. It will not be easy -- and the course of action we favor is not without its problems and perils. But we believe the vital national interests of our country require the United States to:

Recognize a provisional government of Iraq based on the principles and leaders of the Iraqi National Congress (INC) that is representative of all the peoples of Iraq.

Restore and enhance the safe haven in northern Iraq to allow the provisional government to extend its authority there and establish a zone in southern Iraq from which Saddam's ground forces would also be excluded.

Lift sanctions in liberated areas. Sanctions are instruments of war against Saddam's regime, but they should be quickly lifted on those who have freed themselves from it. Also, the oil resources and products of the liberated areas should help fund the provisional government's insurrection and humanitarian relief for the people of liberated Iraq.

Release frozen Iraqi assets -- which amount to $1.6 billion in the United States and Britain alone -- to the control of the provisional government to fund its insurrection. This could be done gradually and so long as the provisional government continues to promote a democratic Iraq.

Facilitate broadcasts from U.S. transmitters immediately and establish a Radio Free Iraq.

Help expand liberated areas of Iraq by assisting the provisional government's offensive against Saddam Hussein's regime logistically and through other means.

Remove any vestiges of Saddam's claim to "legitimacy" by, among other things, bringing a war crimes indictment against the dictator and his lieutenants and challenging Saddam's credentials to fill the Iraqi seat at the United Nations.

Launch a systematic air campaign against the pillars of his power -- the Republican Guard divisions which prop him up and the military infrastructure that sustains him.

Position U.S. ground force equipment in the region so that, as a last resort, we have the capacity to protect and assist the anti-Saddam forces in the northern and southern parts of Iraq.

Once you make it unambiguously clear that we are serious about eliminating the threat posed by Saddam, and are not just engaged in tactical bombing attacks unrelated to a larger strategy designed to topple the regime, we believe that such countries as Kuwait, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, whose cooperation would be important for the implementation of this strategy, will give us the political and logistical support to succeed.

In the present climate in Washington, some may misunderstand and misinterpret strong American action against Iraq as having ulterior political motives. We believe, on the contrary, that strong American action against Saddam is overwhelmingly in the national interest, that it must be supported, and that it must succeed. Saddam must not become the beneficiary of an American domestic political controversy.

We are confident that were you to launch an initiative along these line, the Congress and the country would see it as a timely and justifiable response to Iraq's continued intransigence. We urge you to provide the leadership necessary to save ourselves and the world from the scourge of Saddam and the weapons of mass destruction that he refuses to relinquish.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Solarz Former Member, Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. House of Representatives

Hon. Richard Perle Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Hon. Elliot Abrams President, Ethics Public Policy Center; Former Assistant Secretary of State

Richard V. Allen

Former National Security Advisor Hon. Richard Armitage

President, Armitage Associates, L.C.; Former Assistant Secretary of Defense

Jeffrey T. Bergner

President, Bergner, Bockorny, Clough Brain; Former Staff Director, Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Hon. John Bolton

Senior Vice President, American Enterprise Institute; Former Assistant Secretary of State Stephen Bryen Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Hon. Richard Burt

Chairman, IEP Advisors, Inc.; Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany; Former Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs

Hon. Frank Carlucci

Former Secretary of Defense Hon. Judge William Clark Former National Security Advisor Paula J. Dobriansky

Vice President, Director of Washington Office, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Member, National Security Council

Doug Feith Managing Attorney, Feith Zell P.C.; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Negotiations Policy Frank Gaffney Director, Center for Security Policy; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Forces Jeffrey Gedmin

Executive Director, New Atlantic Initiative; Research Fellow, American Enterprise Institute Hon. Fred C. Ikle

Former Undersecretary of Defense Robert Kagan Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Zalmay M. Khalilzad

Director, Strategy and Doctrine, RAND Corporation Sven F. Kraemer Former Director of Arms Control, National Security Council William Kristol Editor, The Weekly Standard Michael Ledeen

Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Former Special Advisor to the Secretary of State Bernard Lewis Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern and Ottoman Studies, Princeton University

R. Admiral Frederick L. Lewis U.S. Navy, Retired Maj. Gen. Jarvis Lynch

U.S. Marine Corps, Retired Hon. Robert C. McFarlane

Former National Security Advisor Joshua Muravchik

Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Robert A. Pastor

Former Special Assistant to President Carter for Inter-American Affairs

Martin Peretz Editor-in-Chief, The New Republic Roger Robinson Former Senior Director of International Economic Affairs, National Security Council Peter Rodman

Director of National Security Programs, Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom; Former Director, Policy Planning Staff, U.S. Department of State Hon. Peter Rosenblatt

Former Ambassador to the Trust Territories of the Pacific Hon. Donald Rumsfeld

Former Secretary of Defense Gary Schmitt

Executive Director, Project for the New American Century; Former Executive Director, President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board Max Singer President, The Potomac Organization; Former President, The Hudson Institute

Hon. Helmut Sonnenfeldt

Guest Scholar, The Brookings Institution; Former Counsellor, U.S. Department of State Hon. Caspar Weinberger

Former Secretary of Defense Leon Wienseltier

Literary Editor, The New Republic Hon. Paul Wolfowitz

Dean, Johns Hopkins SAIS; Former Undersecretary of Defense David Wurmser

Director, Middle East Program, AEI; Research Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

Dov S. Zakheim Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Organization affiliations given for identification purposes only. Views reflected in the letter are endorsed by the individual, not the institution.
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Save Small Political Magazines

I just got this from David Corn:

' Postal regulators have accepted a scheme designed in part by lobbyists for the Time Warner media conglomerate. In short, mailing costs for mega-magazines like Time Warner's own Time, People and Sports Illustrated will go up only slightly or decrease. But smaller publications like The Nation will be hit by an enormous rate increase of half a million dollars a year.

For The Nation, $500,000 a year is a lot of money. Believe me, I know. I’ve been working at the magazine for over 20 years. The pay ain’t great. But there are few media outlets that allow their writers and reporters the freedom to go beyond the headlines and take on the powers that be—to ask inconvenient questions and pursue uncomfortable truths.

But starting July 15, 2007, The Nation will face this whopping postal rate hike. Not to be melodramatic, but this rate increase is a threat to democratic discourse. Why should magazines that can afford high-powered lobbyists receive preferential treatment? This rise in mailing costs will make it harder for the magazine to deliver the investigative reporting and independent-minded journalism upon which you depend. (Take my word; I see the editors and publishing people in our New York office freaking out about this postal rate hike and discussing possible cutbacks.)

The magazine is fighting this corporate-driven, unfair and anti-democratic increase as best it can. It has joined forces with conservative publications in an attempt to beat back the rigged rate structure. (Imagine Katrina vanden Heuvel and Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review, working together!) But even if we “win”—which, I’m told, is a long shot—The Nation will still face hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional postage. '

You can help here.

This is the print-world equivalent of the Corporations' plan to destroy net neutrality. It is probably a stalking horse. If they get rid of the little magazines, they will then get rid of us, and theirs will be the only voices that can be heard.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Lobe on Neocons and Public Diplomacy
Boston Review on Iran

Veteran journalist and neocon watcher, Jim Lobe points out that as the Neoconservatives have lost direct political power, they have emerged in key positions in public diplomacy-- especially Radio Farda ('Radio Marti' for Iran) and al-Hurra (the US-owned Arabic satellite tv channel that is struggling with viewership).

No one knows more about the Neconservative movement than Jim Lobe; he is worth bookmarking.

Also, check out The Boston Review's current issue, on Iran.

Robert Antonio on the US economic war against Iran.

Justin Raimondo also addresses this economic war.

Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, who was overthrown by the CIA in 1953, was described in the American press with precisely the same adjectives as is Ahmadinejad today.

A recent article on the reaction of Iran's neighbors to its nuclear program is available on the web. Click on "html" to view.

And, on Palestine, see Richard Augustus Norton's canny piece at The Boston Globe.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Baya` Bombing kills 2 Dozen
3 British troops killed at Basra
Congressional Study slams Iraqi security agencies

A massive bomb in the Shiite Baya' district of Baghdad killed 25, wounded 40, and destroyed 40 cars on Thursday morning. In the southern port of Basra, guerrillas used a roadside bomb to kill 3 British soldiers and wound a fourth.

Townspeople of Khalis are disputing the US air force version of events, saying that a US airstrike killed civilians rather than guerrillas in the town.

Al-Zaman reports that order has completely broken down in Basra, with militia rule accounting for what little order there is. Basra, Iraq's major port and petroleum exporting city, is key to the health of Iraq overall.

A Congressional study finds that Iraqi security forces are still some ways off from being able to get the job done on their own.

The LAT reports on Gen. Petraeus's strategy of targeting "al-Qaeda,", i.e. the Salafi Jihadis who specialize in spectacular and destabilizing bombings, and who have foreign volunteers in their ranks.

Obviously, there are some discrete set of groups engaged in this destabilization campaign, and the more they can be disrupted, the better.

But, my strong impression is that the guerrillas are getting a lot of support from the Sunni neighborhoods of Baquba, and that it isn't involuntary. And the reason for that is that they are afraid of their new Shiite rulers, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the Badr Corps and the Mahdi Army. So until there are new elections in Diyala Province in which the majority Sunni Arab population takes part, so that they have a say in the shape of the police force etc., I suspect that killing guerrillas will just make guerrillas of their remaining brothers and cousins. But then, any good counter-insurgency analyst knows that the solutions are ultimately political.

Muqtada al-Sadr is still waiting for approval from the Iraqi government to stage a million-man protest march.
Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Muqtada says he is willing to call off the march if the government asks him to do so.

Thamer Ghadban, the petroleum professional who advises Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on this issue, says that the draft petroleum bill will be put before parliament in two months! In other words, the June deadline for the 4 'benchmarks' set by Bush won't be met. And two months is, of course, optimistic. Ghadban says that contracts concluded during the Saddam period with Indonesia, India, China and other countries will have to be adjusted in light of the new law.

Iran, lacking refinery capacity and facing international sanctions over its nuclear energy research program, has imposed fuel rationing. The step produced demonstrations and riots in the country. Ahmadinejad, the president, is in the hot seat. He came to power as a populist, promising the masses a better life, but now his game of chicken with the UN security council over the nuclear issue is forcing him to take very unpopular steps. I wouldn't look for his faction of the hardliners to do well in the next municipal and parliamentary elections. He faces the electorate in 2009.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is on his way to Switzerland for the conference of the Socialist International. Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan is a socialist party, and is now the major remaining leftist party with seats in the Iraqi parliament. (The parties in attendance will discuss the world's unresolved conflicts.

This Arabic report says that the office of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has angrily denied reports that it had halted an investigation of detained minister of culture, As`ad al-Hashimi. Maliki says that the investigation, as to whether al-Hashimi is implicated in the murder of sons of a parliamentarian, is ongoing. There had been vehement protests from the Iraqi Accord Front, the largest Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, with 44 seats.

Reuters reports political violence on Wednesday in Iraq. Police found 21 bodies in the capital, most of them shot to death. Guerrillas in al-Anbar province killed a US Marine during a clash. Other incidents:

' BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed seven people and wounded 14 in the Shi'ite district of Kadhimiya in Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed at least three people in an attack on police vehicles near a busy market in northern Baghdad, a witness said. Police said there had been an explosion in the Suleikh district and 10 people were wounded. . .

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomb targeting a police commando checkpoint killed one policeman and wounded three other officers in the al-Jaderiyia district of southern Baghdad, police said. . .

KIRKUK - Four Iraqi policemen were killed in an ambush near the oil city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, when gunmen opened fire on their vehicles, police said.

SAMARRA - A roadside bomb killed seven people, including five police commandoes in Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said, adding that two civilians were killed when security forces opened fire in the aftermath of the blast.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed two members of the Assyrian's [Christian] Beth-Nahrain Association Union in a drive-by shooting in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Five people were killed and three wounded in different attacks by gunmen on Tuesday in Mosul, police said. . .

McClatchy adds further details:

' 2 civilians were killed and 10 were injured by a U.S. military convoy fire in Sadr city today, Iraqi police said. U.S. officials didn’t immediately respond for comment. . .

A truck exploded near Al Shirqat last night. Iraqi security sources told two different versions about the incident and the location. The first account said the truck exploded while it was parked near Al Hugna village and killed 1 and injured 4. A police officer said the truck exploded as gunmen were rigging it as a truck bomb near Al Etha village and at least 10 gunmen were killed, he said. The two villages are close to Al Shirqat and no resident could be reached to verify the two accounts. . .

Three gunmen stormed house of a member of the boarders’ guards in Al Marbad area in Al Zubair. The policeman was killed as he fought back the attackers and killed one of them. '

Matthew Good on the Anbar Option.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole in Salon on the Surge

My column at Salon.com on Senator Lugar's revolt over the Iraq surge is now available online.

Excerpt:

' June 28, 2007 | Earlier this week Sen. Richard Lugar, the senior Republican from Indiana, dismissed the U.S. "surge" in Iraq as unlikely to succeed. He condemned any illusions about staying the course. "We have overestimated what the military can achieve, we have set goals that are unrealistic, and we have inadequately factored in the broader regional consequences of our actions," Lugar said from the Senate floor.

His alarm has been illustrated by the difficulties the U.S. and Iraqi militaries faced in the recent offensive operation dubbed "Operation Arrowhead Ripper," aimed at subduing Baquba (pop. 300,000), the restive capital of Diyala province, located 31 miles northeast of Baghdad. American generals admitted that 80 percent of the guerrilla leadership there had slipped away, and that the Iraqi army lacked the equipment and training to hold areas taken in difficult hand-to-hand fighting. The U.S. military compounded its public-relations problem by implausibly branding virtually everyone it fought or killed in the Sunni-majority city as "al-Qaida." '

On the surge, see also Tomdispatch on "the Surge"
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Minister Arrested for Alleged Hit;
Khamenei Pledges Security Cooperation to Talabani

Iraqi troops sought on Tuesday to arrest a serving cabinet minister in the Iraqi government on charges of having ordered a hit on a sitting parliamentarian! Culture Minister As`ad Kamal al-Hashimi was fingered by two guerrillas in US captivity as the one who ordered them to attempt to kill Mithal al-Alusi and his two sons (he escaped; his sons died). The Sunni Arab Iraqi Accord Front rallied to al-Hashimi's defense, and he denied the charges in a telephone interview on Aljazeera. Al-Hayat reports that al-Hashimi was later arrested by Iraqi security forces while attempting to flee the country.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Adnan Dulaymi's Congress of the Iraqi People, a Sunni fundamentalist party that forms part of the Iraqi Accord Front, issued a statement warning "the government vehemently against the stupidity of playing with fire in continuing the policy of lying so as to marginalize Sunni officials and politicians." It further "threatens to expose the high officials, ministers and members of parliament, even Shiite religious authorities, who are involved in crimes of extermination, including killings, kidnappings, and ethnic cleansings of Sunnis." The party said it had documentary proof of these crimes and would not stand with folded hands as sectarian measures were taken by the government.

Remember that plan floated yesterday to make a "moderate" coalition of Da`wa, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the Kurdistan Alliance, and the Sunni bloc? I don't think that is very likely at this point.

21 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad on Tuesday, and there were scattered assassinations and bombings. Reuters adds, "Clashes between insurgents and police left one policemen dead and three wounded in the town of Madaen, just south of Baghdad, police said."

McClatchy on the death of a tribal sheikh who sought an alliance with the United States against the Salafi Jihadis.

Key Republican senators are losing patience with the "surge" and urging an accelerated US exit on Bush. They are calling it "Plan E."

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is in Tehran for talks with Iranian leaders. Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei implausibly blamed the US for all Iraq's problems, posing as a guarantor of stability. The Iranian Mehr News Agency reports:

' Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei told Iraqi President Jalal Talabani here on Tuesday that Iran is ready to provide any kind of assistance to the Iraqi government to help it establish security.

“The Americans oppose the development of relations between Iran and Iraq and are trying to disrupt them,” Ayatollah Khamenei added. However, Iran and Iraq should “stand against” this move, he advised.

He said it is absolutely necessary to reinforce unity among the Iraqi people, especially among the country’s political and cultural elites.

The intelligence services of the U.S., the Zionist regime, and certain other countries that are allied with them are the main culprits behind the security problems and crimes in Iraq, the Leader stated. . .

Talabani said Iraq believes the expansion of relations with Iran is a necessity and will pursue the matter very seriously, despite the opposition of the enemies. And Iraq will not halt its efforts to expand relations with Iran under foreign pressure, the Iraqi president added. . . '

Did Talabani just call the Bush administration, which opposes close ties between Iraq and Iran, an "enemy"?

Iraqis used to love fried river fish, but are afraid to eat anything caught in the Tigris nowadays, since there are so many dead bodies floating in the river.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

16 Bodies found in Baghdad
Anbar Tribal Model Questioned

The 'Anbar Model' of arming Sunni tribespeople to fight religious extremists is being queried by many experts.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the Da`wa Party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, and the Kurdistan Alliance, have made a new compact, in an attempt to support Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

McClatchy reports on further political violence in Iraq on Monday, beyond the horrific bombings in Baghdad, Hilla and Baiji. Police found 16 corpses in the streets of the capital. Major incidents excerpted below:

'Baghdad:

- Around 10 a.m. a road side bomb exploded in Zafaraniyah neighborhood. 2 civilians were injured. . .

- Around 1 p.m. mortar shells landed in Al Saidiyah neighborhood injuring 3 residents.

Salaheddin:

- Iraqi police source said that seven civilians were killed and 2 were injured near Al Dujail when a U.S. military helicopter opened fire on a mini bus but U.S. military officials denied the incident occurred.

- A road side bomb exploded targeting a police vehicle on the main road near Al Dujail north of Baghdad this morning. 1 policeman killed and 3 were injured. Basra

- Police found the dead body of the assistant of the intelligence head of the 10th Iraqi army division in Basra in Al Fersi area central Basra last night. LC Fares Mohammed was kidnapped yesterday. The kidnappers released his bodyguards and his driver. '

AP reports on the US troops wounded in Iraq:

' More than 800 of them have lost an arm, a leg, fingers or toes. More than 100 are blind. Dozens need tubes and machines to keep them alive. Hundreds are disfigured by burns, and thousands have brain injuries and damaged minds. These are America’s war wounded, a toll that has received less attention than the 3,500 troops killed in Iraq. Depending on how you count them, they number between 35,000 and 53,000. '

Desert tent camps are no fun in 115 degrees F. in the Iraqi summer heat.

The International Crisis Group draws attention to failing security and government institutions in Basra, and worries that the failures in Basra will afflict the whole country.

Jennifer Loewenstein on the triumph of US and Israeli policy in Palestine/ Gaza.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases items in the Iraqi press for June 25:

' Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 400-word report entitled "Tikrit Residents Criticize Prosecution of Former Iraqi Army Commanders Regardless of National Reconciliation Project."

Al-Zaman runs on page 3 a 450-word report entitled "US Forces Hand Over Further Security Responsibilities in Iraqi Governorates; Washington Counts on Military Operations To Begin Withdrawal."

Al-Zaman runs on page 4 a 200-word report on the appointment of Ammar al-Hakim as deputy chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council.

Al-Mashriq runs on the front page a 120-word report saying that the Unified Iraqi Coalition blocked some political blocs from increasing the Presidential Council's authority.

Al-Mashriq runs on page 2 a 600-word report citing the Iraqi List demanding to postpone the implementation of article 140 of the constitution about Kirkuk and keep Mahmud al-Mashahdni as Speaker of the Iraqi parliament. The List hopes that a new political block, which includes all parties participating in the political process, will help ameliorate the current situation.

Dar al-Salam on 24 June publishes on the front page a 140-word report entitled "Governmental Forces Arrest 12 Wanted Al-Mahdi Army Elements in Al-Nasiriyah."

Dar al-Salam on 24 June runs on page 4 a 1,300-word report entitled "Children, Victims of Sectarian Violence, Abduction, Extortion; 6,800 Children Killed Since Beginning of This Year."

Ishraqat al-Sadr on 24 June carries on the front page a 400-word report on a statement by Ayatollah Kazim al-Ha'iri accusing the "occupation" of the Samarra bombings to fuel sectarian sedition between Shiite and Sunnis and loot Iraq's resources.

Ishraqat al-Sadr on 24 June carries on the front page a 500-word report citing Shaykh Usamah al-Tamimi, during the Friday sermon in Al-Kazimiyah, urging Muslims to visit the holy shrine in Samarra.

Al-Da'wah on 24 June carries on the front page a 450-word exclusive report entitled: 'Dissolved Ba'th Party: Requests Leaders to Return to Iraq, Join Tribes To Receive Weapons According to US Decision.

Al-Adala runs on page 2 a 140-word report saying that Maysan tribes [in Shiite South Iraq] refused to be armed by US forces'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Ahmadinejad: "I am not anti-Semitic"
Palestinians should Decide on Two-State Solution

Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul continue to show themselves among the few in Congress with any integrity and backbone. They declined to go along with a resolution charging Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad with incitement to genocide, given his alleged call for Israel to be 'wiped off the face of the map.'

As most of my readers know, Ahmadinejad did not use that phrase in Persian. He quoted an old saying of Ayatollah Khomeini calling for 'this occupation regime over Jerusalem" to "vanish from the page of time.' Calling for a regime to vanish is not the same as calling for people to be killed. Ahmadinejad has not to my knowledge called for anyone to be killed. (Wampum has more; as does the American Street).

If Ahmadinejad is a genocidal maniac who just wants to kill Jews, then why are there 20,000 Jews in Iran with a member of parliament in Tehran? Couldn't he start at home if that was what he is really about?

I was talking to two otherwise well-informed Israeli historians a couple of weeks ago, and they expressed the conviction that Ahmadinejad had threatened to nuke Israel. I was taken aback. First of all, Iran doesn't have a nuke. Second, there is no proof that Iran even has a nuclear weapons program. Third, Ahmadinejad has denied wanting a bomb. Fourth, Ahmadinejad has never threatened any sort of direct Iranian military action against Israel. In other words, that is a pretty dramatic fear for educated persons to feel, on the basis of . . . nothing.

I renew my call to readers to write protest letters to newspapers and other media every time they hear it alleged that Ahmadinejad (or "Iran"!) has threatened to "wipe Israel off the map." There is no such idiom in Persian and it is not what he said, and the mistranslation gives entirely the wrong impression. Wars can start over bad translations.

It was apparently some Western wire service that mistranslated the phrase as 'wipe Israel off the map', which sounds rather more violent than calling for regime change. Since then, Iranian media working in English have themselves depended on that translation. One of the tricks of Right-Zionist propagandists is to substitute these English texts for Ahmadinejad's own Persian text. (Ethan Bronner at the New York Times tried to pull this, and more recently Michael Rubin at the American Enterprise Institute.) But good scholarship requires that you go to the original Persian text in search of the meaning of a phrase. Bronner and Rubin are guilty disregarding philological scholarship in favor of mere propagandizing.

These propaganda efforts against Iran and Ahmadinejad also depend on declining to enter into evidence anything else he has ever said-- like that it would be wrong to kill Jews! They also ignore that Ahmadinejad is not even the commander in chief of the Iranian armed forces.

Anyone who reads this column knows that I deeply disagree with Ahmadinejad's policies and am not interested in defending him on most things. I profoundly disagree with his characterization of Israel, which is a legitimate United Nations member state, and find his Holocaust denial monstrous. But this quite false charge that he is genocidal is being promoted by Right-Zionists in and out of Congress as a preparatory step to getting up a US war against Iran on false pretences. I don't want to see my country destroyed by being further embroiled in the Middle East for the wrong reasons. If the Israeli hardliners and their American amen corner want a war with Iran, let them fight it themselves and leave young 18 year old Americans alone.

So here are some things Ahmadinezhad has said that make clear his intentions, and which are translated by the United States government Open Source Center. He is hostile to Israel. He'd like to see regime change (apparently via a referendum on the shape of the government ruling over geographical Palestine, in which all "original" residents of any religion would get a vote). Calling for a referendum on the dissolution of a government is not calling for genocide. Ahmadinejad also says he has no objection to a Jewish state in and of itself, he just thinks it should be located in, say, German territory set apart for the purpose, rather than displacing Palestinians from their homes. He may be saying unrealistic things; he is not advocating killing Jews qua Jews, or genocide.

Note that Ahmadinejad below denies being an anti-Semite (why deny it if he supposedly glories in it?); points out that he supports Jewish representation in the Iranian parliament; and compares his call for an end to the Zionist regime ruling over Jerusalem to the Western call for the dissolution of the old Soviet Union. Was Ronald Reagan inciting to genocide when he called for an end of the Soviet regime?

Iran's President Ahmadinezhad Holds New York News Conference 21 Sep News conference by Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad at UN headquarters in New York -- correspondents' questions in English simultaneously translated into Persian -- live Islamic Republic of Iran News Network Television (IRINN) Friday, September 22, 2006 Regarding the issue of the invasion of Lebanon, you saw that everyone - of all religions, of all faiths - condemned it. Because the nations have awakened. The nations hate aggression. . . Some people think that if they level accusations at Ahmadinezhad - saying: He is a terrorist, he is a murderer, he is anti-Semitic - the issue would be resolved. No. I am not anti-Semitic. Like all other human beings, Jews are respected. And, by the way, there are Muslims and Christians and Jews among the Palestinian people. We say the people of Palestine should choose. We do not say that it should be the Palestinian Muslims. For they lived in peace and harmony in the past. But then Britain came over and, with colonialist goals, took control and then handed it over to the Zionists. And the problem started. Let the people choose and see what will happen. Iranian Television Broadcasts President Ahmadinezhad's Interview With French TV "Exclusive interview" with Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad by David Pujadas of French TV's TF2 Channel on 22 March 2007 -- recorded Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 Sunday, March 25, 2007 (David Pujadas) The fact that Iran's position is disconcerting, one of the reasons is that Your Excellency's statements are to a large extent threatening. For instance, your assertion that Israel should be wiped from the map of the world, all these things have created some concern which has been reflected in the nuclear case too. (Ahmadinezhad) . . . Let me ask you this question: where is the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics now? Was it not wiped off (the map)? How was it wiped off? We have a totally humanitarian solution for Palestine. We have said that all the Palestinians should take part in a free referendum so as to end the 60 year old war. The outcome is clear from now. It is because of the same outcome that America and Britain are refusing to yield. (David Pujadas) Let us clarify everything. Do you really wish to wipe Israel off the face of the earth? Do you have a plan for this job or are you in fact making such a prediction? (Ahmadinezhad) Look, I told you the solution. I think the people of Palestine also have the right to determine their own fate. Let them choose for themselves, the Christians, the Jews and the Muslims. That is, all the Palestinians who belong to that land can participate in the referendum. I think the outcome of such a referendum is already clear. We saw what happened in last year's elections (when they voted for HAMAS). (David Pujadas) If the Palestinians themselves accept that two governments should enjoy peaceful coexistence next to each other, will you be ready to accept their decision? (Ahmadinezhad) Incidentally this is what we are saying. That is, we are saying let the nation of Palestine decide for itself without any imposition. They should be allowed to do so in a free atmosphere. This is the right of the Palestinian people. Let them decide for themselves. Let them decide the shape of their own government. (David Pujadas) Do you mean with Israel as their neighbor? (Ahmadinezhad) Look, let the nation of Palestine decide about its own state. This is the right of the Palestinian people. . . (David Pujadas) A lot is being said about the 60m people who have been killed during World War II, but why should we just discuss the 6m people who have been killed in the Nazi camps for being Jews? (Ahmadinezhad) You well know that we respect everyone. The Jews, Christians, Muslims. They are all free in our country and they have their own representatives in our Majles [Parliament]. You know that according to the Law in Iran, every 150,000 people have one representative in the Majles. But the number of the Jews is not even 20,000 people and they have a representative. We say that the life and belongings of all people should be respected. We condemn all crimes. . . Iran: Presidential Website Reports Ahmadinezhad's Remarks at Holocaust Conference Unattributed report: "The President: Truth-Seeking and Honest Groups Should Be Formed To Investigate the Holocaust" Presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran WWW-Text Thursday, December 28, 2006 The president stated that due to God's wish and the vigilance of nations the days of the Zionist regime are numbered and added: We want prosperity for all humans and even like to guide our enemies, but some European and American politicians' one-sided and bigoted support for the Zionist regime no longer has a function in the world. Dr Ahmadinezhad stated that, with each day that passes of the Zionist regime's life, the interests and reputation of its supporting powers become more endangered. He added: The sensible and fair solution is to remove this regime the same way it was set up and imposed on the region's countries through planning and imperialistic objectives. This will bring peace to the world, and the region's countries will also forgive the atrocities of the last 60 years. The president also stated that God did not create human beings for war, hatred, and enmity. He said the key for establishment of peace and harmony is justice; justice is achievable through monotheism and believing in God. He emphasized: An international effort must be made to establish peace and to remove the roots of insecurity and injustice, as the international balance is changing rapidly and the future evolutions will certainly be for peace, brotherhood, justice, and worshiping God.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Jihadi Groups fighting in Diyala

The USG Open Source Center translates an account of Jihadi groups fighting in Buhriz, a town of Diyala province. The account demonstrates how complex the groups are, that are being lumped together by the press as "al-Qaeda." The Islamic State of Iraq is usually described as a front for 'al-Qaeda,' even though it is unlikely that they have anything to do with Usama Bin Laden. The pro-coalition "Tariq al-Hashimi Brigades" or tribal levies are loyal to the Iraqi vice president (a Sunni Arab) of that name.

'Brother in Diyala' Claims 'Heavy Fighting' in Bahraz [Buhriz] Between Jihadist Groups, 'Occupation' Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary Wednesday, June 20, 2007 Terrorism: 'Brother in Diyala' Claims 'Heavy Fighting' in Bahraz [Buhriz] Between Jihadist Groups, 'Occupation' On 11 June, a forum participant posted a statement to a jihadist website claiming that groups from The Islamic State of Iraq, Ansar al-Sunnah Group, Al-Mujahidin Army, and the Monotheists Army are engaged in "heavy fighting" with the "occupation" army and Tarik al-Hashemi militias in Al-Sinai neighborhood of the town of Bahraz, but no other details were provided. The statement was allegedly "quoted by a brother in Diyala." A translation of the statement follows: "The State (Islamic of Iraq), Ansar al-Sunnah Group, Al-Mujahidin Army, and the Monotheists Army are fighting side by side in Bahraz [Buhriz]. Praise be to God. "Heavy fighting erupted in the town of Bahraz between the resistance and the occupation and Tarik al-Hashemi militias which are described by the occupation as tribal militias. The heavy fighting is taking place in the Al-Sinai (Industrial) neighborhood of the town of Bahraz. The soldiers of The Islamic State of Iraq are joining Ansar al-Sunnah Group, Al-Mujahidin Army (Al-Jihad and Reformation Front), and the Monotheists Army. The occupation is using military helicopters, tanks, and hundreds of soldiers. "Quoted by a brother in Diyala."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Baquba Can't be Held by Iraq Troops: Bednarak

This AP story made me angry. I admire a straight shooter, so I am glad that Brig. Gen. Mick Bednarak admitted to AP that the Iraqi Army is not up to actually holding the neighborhoods in Baquba that US troops recently cleared, in hard fighting, of Salafi Jihadi guerrillas.

So Baquba is a city of like 300,000 northeast of Baghdad, in Diyala Province. Diyala has a 60% Sunni majority, and it had a lot of Baath military bases in the old days. It is now ruled by the (Shiite) Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which benefits from the province's proximity to Iran. The previous Iraqi military commander had to be fired because he was helping, behind the scenes, Shiite militias.

So the Sunni Arabs in Baquba are done out. They have a Shiite government in their province that they don't want, and they have a Shiite/Kurdish government in Baghdad that sends Shiite troops of the Iraqi Army against them. The Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baquba have thrown up local militias, and they have made alliances with Baathi and Salafi Jihadi cells.

The US military spent last week trying to 'clear' these Sunni Arab neighborhoods of 'al-Qaeda.' But I doubt they have Bin Laden's telephone number. They are just local guys or foreign volunteers who don't like seeing Sunni Arabs subjected to Shiite ayatollahs and secessionist Kurds.

As US troops fought on Sunday, they discovered that the guerrilla leaders had set mines and then made themselves scarce.

So after 6 days of hard fighting, in which US troops were killed and wounded, what do we have?

A sullen, defiant Sunni Arab urban population.

A guerrilla leadership that slipped away.

An Iraqi army unable actually to hold the 'cleared' neighborhoods, which are likely to throw up more guerrilla leaders and campaigns.

A continued dominance of Sunni Arabs in Diyala by a Shiite government completely unacceptable to them.

A US commitment to upholding the Shiite ("Iraqi") government.

So I am angry because this looks to me like we sent our guys to fight and die for a piece of political quicksand in which the entire endeavor is likely to sink.

It is not right.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pro-US Tribal Sheikhs Attacked at Mansur Hotel
Beiji Police Station Blown UP

The guerrillas are at it again on Monday morning. They detonated a bomb in the lobby of the al-Mansur Hotel during a meeting of tribal sheikhs, killing 12. Presumably these were leaders who had decided to fight the Salafi Jihadis or extremist Sunnis. AFP reports:

' An AFP correspondent said charred bodies of the victims and many of the wounded were lying near the reception desk in the rubble-strewn lobby, and that the ceiling had collapsed on the bodies.

A hotel employee said a group of five or six tribal sheikhs had come into the lobby and ordered tea. As the employee headed back to the kitchen the explosion went off behind him.

One of those killed was Fassal al-Gawud, an ex-governor of the western Sunni province of Anbar, where several tribal sheikhs have recently allied with US and Iraqi forces against Al-Qaeda, according to security officials.

Hussein Shaalan, a Shiite MP from the liberal Iraqi National List of former pro-Western premier Iyad Allawi’s political bloc and a tribal chief from the central city of Diwaniyah, was also killed along with his son and a bodyguard. '

Guerrillas also hit a police station with a fuel truck bomb in the refinery town of Baiji, killing 15 persons. There was other mayhem.

Some of the wave of attacks on Monday may have come in response to the verdict announced yesterday in the trial of "Chemical Ali" (Ali Hasan al-Majid), a high Baath commander and cousin of Saddam who spearheaded the Anfal campaign of using poison gas against the Kurds in the north. This was toward the end of the Iran-Iraq War, when the Kurdish political leadership had allied with Khomeini in its bid to secede from Iraq. The gas campaign was indiscriminate, hitting Kurdish villages far from the Iranian front, and taking on a racial and genocidal aspect.

Many of the deadliest cells operating in Iraq are actually Baathists, not Salafi Jihadis (what the US press and military mostly inaccurately call 'al-Qaeda'). Though many Baathists have little use for Saddam or Chemical Ali, the prospect of further hangings of high Baath commanders by the Shiite Da`wa Party of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his Shiite allies is intolerable to them.

Then guerrillas detonated a bomb near the governor's mansion in Hilla, the capital of the mixed Babil province south of Baghdad. They killed 8 and wounded 25. Hilla is a largely Shiite city, and Babil is controlled politically by the (Shiite) Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who is close to Iran. The northern reaches of Babil province, however, have a lot of Sunnis, who reject the new political situation.

Meanwhile, the Sunni Arab blocs in parliament have announced that they are boycotting the national legislature until former speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani is reinstated. He was recently dismissed at the insistence of the Shiites and Kurds, allegedly for abusing MPs and for making outrageous statements. It was not widely reported in the Western press, but some of his anger against the Shiite MPs came from the kidnapping by the Mahdi Army of members of his own security guard.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Maliki Under Onslaught from Security Failures
VP Abdul Mahdi threatens to Resign
Parliament extends Work One Month
Mahdi Army Rallies Roil Najaf

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic says that PM Nuri al-Maliki has been exposed to vehement criticism from his own bloc (the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance) for his inability to provide security, and especially his inability to safeguard Shiite holy sites. He is also criticized for failing to put cabinet ministries to work, which have been vacant for months.

One sign of the tension is that the Shiite vice president, Adil Abdul Mahdi, tendered his resignation early last week, but was prevailed upon by president Jalal Talabani to withdraw it.

Al-Hayat says that the Iraqi parliament managed to muster a bare quorum of 140 members on Saturday, of whom 103 voted to extend the current session of parliament one month, until the end of July. They say they need the time to pass key legislation. The LA Times has more, and evinces optimism that the parliament will pass petroleum and revenue distribution bills.

Al-Hayat says that the Iraqi legislature issued a statement on the knighting by Queen Elizabeth II of author Salman Rushdie: "At a time when we call for a dialogue of religions and civilizations, and work to combat terrorism in all its forms and wherever it exists, we express our amazement and our regret that the Queen of England has honored a person who has insulted Islam and millions of its adherents."

Note to Iraqi parliament: if a religion is true, it cannot be insulted, and if adherents have faith, they will be undeterred by criticism. Only false rites and weak faith need be afraid of novels. Insecurity in a supposed believer is unlovely.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki has appointed a security commission for Karbala province, headed by a high-ranking Iraqi officer from the ministry of the interior to increase security in the province. Some 2000 extra police are being dispersed throughout it.

(My guess is that these measures aim to protect the Shiite shrine of Husayn, the prophet's grandson. If the Sunni Arab guerrillas could ever blow it up, there would be hell to pay.)

Governor `Aqil al-Khaz`ali also announced that work had begun on a ditch around the city, starting in the west; it will cost 2 billion Iraqi dinars.

Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the [Shiite] Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, visited Karbala on Friday. He said that the Iraqis had battled the Saddam regime for 20 years, and that they are prepared to struggle for that long and more to take Iraq into the phase of progress, stability, democracy, and to forestall the return of dictatorship. He consulted with local officials on the city's security challenges. On Sunday, tribal chieftains will hold a congress in Karbala to discuss the best way to preserve its stability.

In another Shiite holy city south of Baghdad--Najaf-- the Mahdi Army staged street marches for three days last week, ending on Friday. In the wake of these marches, the city saw assassinations and security disturbances.

Turkey alleged that PKK guerrillas rammed a fuel truck into a police station in eastern Anatolia. Turkish troops are already massed at the Iraqi border to deal with PKK fighters who have been given refuge inside Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish bombardment of border villages has caused hundreds of Kurds to flee deeper into Iraq.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunday Reading

For analysis of the situation in Palestine this past week, few observers are cannier than Helena Cobban at Just World News.

And from the liberal Israeli side, Daniel Levy on 'Plan B.'

True or false? Syria is an economic basket case, with no prospects of moving away from a bloated, inefficient state socialist framework, and is a house of cards ready to fall at any moment? Joshua Landis has some suprising indicators.

Roger Morris on Bob Gates, the CIA, and the politics of counter-revolution at Tomdispatch.com.

Josh Marshall on how all 'insurgents' in Iraq are suddenly being dubbed 'al-Qaeda'. He could have noted that actually they now seem mostly to be 'senior al-Qaeda.'

Glenn Greenwald at Salon.com takes Josh's point and runs with it: on how everyone we fight now is 'al-Qaeda.'

Abu Aardvark on why maybe we shouldn't expect too much from those tribal leaders in al-Anbar province who are allegedly uniting against the Salafi Jihadis there.

Steve Clemons on how Colin Powell and Condi Rice's staff are playing a key behind the scenes role in the push to shut down Gitmo. Steve doesn't mention, but I will, that it is no accident that African-Americans should be especially troubled about keeping people in cages with no formal charges and no right to a lawyer.


Did greed or ambition cause Rudy Giuliani to quit the Iraq Study Commission after he had signed on to it?

Digby revealed.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

7 US Troops Killed on Saturday
Turks March in Istanbul Against PKK

Iraqi guerrillas killed 7 US troops on Saturday.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday. Police found 11 bodies in Baghdad on Friday. Excerpts:

' HILLA - A car bomb killed two people and wounded 18 in the Shi'ite city of Hilla, south of Baghdad, police said. . .

KHALIS - U.S. and Iraqi forces killed 11 . . . gunmen after an attack on an Iraqi army checkpoint near Khalis, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, on Wednesday, the U.S. military said. Attack helicopters were called in after the gunmen fired on the checkpoint. . .

SAMARRA - Three police commandos and one gunman were killed in clashes in Samarra, 100 km (62 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Three people were killed and two wounded in a mortar attack in the Bayaa district of southwestern Baghdad, police said.

MUSSAYAB - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded two others in Mussayab, about 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA - A roadside bomb killed one policeman and wounded two others when it exploded near a police convoy in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

FALLUJA - A U.S. air strike killed five gunmen who had opened fire on a patrol near Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.
'

McClatchy rounds up political violence for Friday.

The Turkish military called for popular protests against PKK violence by Kurdish forces based in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Istanbul public responded with a rally. The protest came as the Turkish government met on the crisis (i.e. the prime minister met with the military chief of staff). I don't think it is a good sign that the Turkish military is bringing out crowds in the streets. There is an election coming up in Turkey, the results of which the military may well not like.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Bill Clarification

The lede below on the Kurdish Baghdad deal on distribution of petroleum receipts contains some inaccuracies, according to Ben Lando of UPI. Apparently the deal is not about the petroleum bill but about distribution of profits. Will link when I can. This is by treo on the side of a mountain in a thunderstorm.

Update: Well, I'm off the mountain and the sun is shining. Here's the clarification:

While Iraqi negotiators have made a major breakthrough on sharing revenue from oil sales, the key issue of exactly how to govern the country's vast reserves is far from settled.

Iraqi negotiators have come to an agreement on divvying up revenues from oil sales, a major, though not final breakthrough on a package of oil laws.

The draft of the revenue sharing law on which there has been a breakthrough is is up at the website of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Another informed reader writes, "It appears that the KRG has reached an agreement with respect to how much revenue they should receive from the federal government as a “block grant” under the budget, but that has nothing to do with the proposed Petroleum Law.

"The proposed Petroleum Law in circulation and receiving comments sets forth the procedures for the award of oil field development contracts.

"It has one provision referring to the establishment of two funds – an “Oil Revenue Fund” and “Future Fund” – but has nothing more about the two funds and expressly calls for additional legislation to deal with them."

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Kurdistan-Baghdad Oil Deal?
US Strike Kills 11 Civilians
Shiites Rally in Najaf, Criticize US

Reuters is reporting that the Kurds have reached an agreement with other parliamentarians on changes to a draft petroleum bill. These changes do not address, as Reuters incorrectly reports, "the equitable distribution of petroleum receipts." There is nothing in the draft law about such distributions, which according to the constitution would require separate legislation by parliament. The agreement is rather about the rights of regional confederacies such as the Kurdistan Regional Government to sign contracts with foreign companies independently of Baghdad. The [Shiite] Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), which dominates provincial administrations in the south, is pushing for the formation of a Shiite regional government on the analogy of Kurdistan, which would also have claims on petroleum finds in its area.

The details of the agreement were not released.

Sunni Arab guerrillas hit a city hall with a car bomb in the small town of Sulayman Bek south of Kirkuk on Thursday, killing 18, wounding 75, and raising political tensions in the town.

14 US troops were announced killed Wednesday through Thursday, as the US pursued campaigns in Baghdad and Baquba against Salafi Jihadis.

The Green Zone took heavy mortar fire on Thursday, sending black smoke above the supposedly safe center for government offices and foreign embassies.

A US airstrike in Baquba missed its target and hit a civilian house, killing 11 persons. This sort of thing fuels my suspicion that the current head-on assault is not going to end the guerrilla war, since in the course of fighting current guerrillas one often creates new feuds and new guerrillas.

Shiites in the holy city of Najaf south of Baghdad held a huge rally to protest last week's bombing of the Askariyah Shrine in Samarra. They roundly denounced the Sunni Salafi Jihadis or "al-Qaeda." Ammar al-Hakim, son of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (leader of SIIC) spoke, slamming the US security push in Baghdad as inadequate and saying “The security situation in Baghdad, Diyala and other areas shows that the security plan needs revision and development in order to achieve greater results. . ." SIIC has its own paramilitary, the Badr Corps, and I take Ammar's criticism to imply that the US should let him unleash Badr on the Salafi Jihadis and they'd be taken care of in short order. Badr has been relatively disciplined, but has been implicated in some death squad activity against ex-Baathists and Salafis.

In his Friday prayer sermon, Shaykh Ahmad al-Safi of Karbala demanded that top Iraqi security officials resign over the bombing of the minarets of the al-Askariyah Shrine last week. He said it was not enough for them to deplore the action, but that rather they must take responsibility. I presume he was targeting the minister of defense and the minister of the interior. He also decried the bombing this week of the mosque of the 2nd Deputy of the 12th Imam in Baghdad, which killed 87. He decried the tendency in the Middle East to praise the groups who do such things as a "resistance" or as fighting a "jihad." What kind of jihad, he asked, involves blowing up Muslim mosques and killing worshippers? Al-Safi is listened to in Iraq in part because he is a representative in a key holy city of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani,the spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, and his sermons are thought to represent Sistani's views. I'd say Sistani is probably at this point pretty done out with the al-Maliki government.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has formed, according to this Arabic report, a committee to oversee the arming of tribal groups who are fighting the Salafi Jihadis. He is doing it despite his own concerns that the move will in the long run just create more militias and security problems for the central government. (A lot of the Sunni tribesmen willing to fight "al-Qaeda" are also deeply opposed to al-Maliki).

Al-Maliki's government faces gridlock in parliament in part because of the Sadr Movement, which has 32 seats and forms part of the United Iraqi Alliance, al-Maliki's bloc. The Sadrists have withdrawn from the national unity government and suspended participation in parliament. Al-Maliki also lost the 15 delegates of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), which is strong in Basra in the south. He is essentially a minority prime minister but can't get much legislation pushed through under these circumstances. He is exploring a new configuration in parliament, joining his Da'wa Party (24 seats), SIIC (30 seats), the Kurdistan Alliance (53 seats), and the [Sunni Arab] Iraqi Islamic Party. The new coalition would have 160 seats in the 275-member parliament and would comfortably be able to pass legislation (if everyone showed up; the last vote was taken in a parliament where only 144 MPs attended, a bare quorum). The problem is that fundamentalist Shiites, fundamentalist Sunnis, and separatist, often socialist Kurds, don't amount to a stable coalition.

Leila Fadel of McClatchy interviews a Mahdi Army commander, who has been on a killing spree against Sunnis and claims to have received training in Iran. He says the Mahdi Army will one day lead a revolution in Iraq similar to that of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. He is obviously a braggart, but if a tenth of what he says is true, it is chilling. He also explains why dozens of bodies are still showing up in Baghdad every day, despite the US security push.

20 bodies were found in Baghdad. There was a bombing in Madaen, and a mortar strike on a Shiite neighborhood in south Baghdad.

McClatchy reports:

'Diyala:
Around 2 pm , 6 people were killed and 3 others injured at Barghash village in Balad Rouz (40 km east of Baquba) when clashes took place between gunmen and the residents of the village , Diyala Salvation Council reported . . .

Around Thursday noon, Khalis hospital ( 15 km north of Baquba) has received 3 dead bodies in two different incidents. . .

Around Thursday noon, terrorists bombed a primary school in Qara Taba village ( 79 km north of Baquba) causing great damage to the building . . . '

KARBALA:
Today , Kerbala cemetery had got 130 unknown dead bodies which had been brought from Baghdad morgues as they have been there for more than three months without been identified . Thus th whole number of the unknown dead bodies buried in Kerbala reached ( 3627) .

BASRA:

Basra ( 549 km south of Baghdad) - A British soldier was killed by mortar attacks on the multi forces headquarter in Hakimia neighborhood in the midtown of Basra city yesterday evening , the spokesman of the British forces said.

Fred Kaplan at Slate on how Rudy Giuliani sloughed off when serving on the Baker-Hamilton Commission on Iraq.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole's Advice to Hillary on Iraq
Reply to Edwards on the South Lite

The Chicago Sun Times has a run down of what the Democratic presidential candidates recently said, some of it Iraq-oriented. Actually, I would argue that everything in this election is tinged by Iraq.

The article, like many others, notes that at Hillary Clinton's speech at Take Back America, the Code Pink antiwar demonstrators were out in fewer numbers this time and that she got support from other parts of the crowd. The demonstrators objected when she blamed what went wrong in Iraq on the Iraqi government. They were right to protest.

If I were advising Senator Clinton on what to say about Iraq, this would be it: "Our troops have fought courageously and with great skill against the totalitarian, genocidal Saddam Hussein regime and its security forces. They did their job, but the Bush administration did not do its. Bush failed to secure a United Nations Security Council resolution for the war, depriving the war effort of key international support and casting the administration as an outlaw regime in the eyes of much of the world. There was no planning for the aftermath of the war. Stupid decisions were taken to dissolve the Iraqi army, to fire thousands of experienced bureaucrats and teachers, to marginalize the Sunni Arab community, and to deliver Iraq into the hands of expatriate carpetbaggers, some of them overly friendly with the ayatollahs in Tehran. Neither the US military nor the Iraqis bear the primary blame for the subsequent catastrophe. It is on the shoulders of the Bush administration. The administration has so spoiled the situation that there is no longer any hope of a military solution. Any solution to this festering crisis must be political and diplomatic. The US military is essentially being ordered to support some sides in a multi-pronged civil war against others, but without any real hope of having being able to triumph decisively in these low-intensity guerrilla wars. That is why I favor getting our troops out of Iraq and insisting that regional powers, NATO and the UN now come in to bring about a political resolution, even as the world ensures that a nonsectarian Iraqi military is trained, equipped and deployed for the protection of all Iraqis."

Caveat: I am not giving my own speech above. I'm just taking what Senator Clinton often says and rephrasing it so that the blame is put where it belongs, which is not on the poor Iraqi public but on Bush-Cheney. I think she'd find this approach a stronger rallying cry and also that it would allow her to occupy a higher moral ground.

The Sun-Times article mentions that John Edwards is hinting around that Clinton and Obama cannot win in the South and that he can. I agree with him that this issue has to be part of Democratic strategizing, but I disagree with his point of view on it. Edwards's ticket couldn't take his own state, North Carolina, in 2004, and it is unclear that that would change if he were at the top of the ticket. And anything south of North Carolina is Republican territory, which Edwards cannot win, either. So what is in play? Virginia, Tennesee, West Virginia, southern Ohio, Arkansas, etc. The South Lite. They can still swing either way.

Ordinarily Edwards might have a better chance in the mid-Atlantic states than his main rivals. But 2008 will be a peculiar election, because many Republican voters are likely to stay home out of discouragement. At the moment, many key constituencies in the Republican Party (e.g. the evangelicals, the small-government conservatives, the Libertarians) feel unrepresented by the front runners. Fully a third of evangelicals voted Democratic in the fall '06 election!

I am not sure at this late date, and given the money already raised by front runners, a Fred Thompson candidacy is plausible, and he's the only one on the horizon who could help fix this problem on the Republican side. Even he would have the Iraq albatross around his neck, which is likely to discourage Republican voters from coming out. I think a third party run by Bloomberg/Hagel would draw off Republicans 2-1 against Democrats, just as Ross Perot did in 1992. In the absence of such a consideration, the Democrats will win because right of center independents defect to them and because Republicans are too disheartened to come out in force.

These considerations might in fact allow Clinton and Obama to take Virginia and Tennesee and West Virginia. The remarkably good showing that Harold Ford made in the Tennesee senate race last fall underscores what I am saying.

So I agree with Edwards that one key to a Democratic presidential win in '08 will be the South Lite. And in ordinary times he might in fact be better positioned to win there. But in '08 the independents are leaning Democratic and evangelicals are likely to either bolt the Republican Party or stay home, and I think Clinton and Obama both are electable in the South Lite.

Barack Obama wants 45 mile a gallon automobile fuel efficiency as a way of reducing US dependency on Middle East petroleum. I'm all for that, but I don't think he appreciates the engineering challenge here or the pinch the middle and working classes would feel from the big spike in the cost of automobiles. It is also a global market, and if the US stopped making low-efficiency luxury cars, SUVs, etc., the likelihood is that the public would just import them, sending more jobs overseas. Being in the Detroit area, I'm not sanguine about most Americans wanting to drive around in dinky little cars or wanting to spend more for a local one than one made overseas. In other words, I'd like to hear more from Senator Obama about how this would work exactly, so as to avoid driving more Michigan jobs overseas.

And, just a word of advice to Senator Obama: the petroleum market is just one global market. It doesn't matter whether the US gets petroleum from the Middle East or from Venezuela. In fact, the Saudis deliberately make petroleum deals with US firms so as to make political points, when from a market point of view they could just let the contracts fall where they may. You can't fix any problems by switching which countries you buy petroleum from. It is like trying to get the level of the water in your bathtub lower in one corner. Can't be done. It is just one bathtub and level will equalize throughout.

Dennis Kucinich wants a massive government program to retrofit homes for solar and wind energy. I don't know if homes are the place to start, but I agree that solar and wind would become more viable if the government threw a lot of money at them. Personally, I'd start by making the Defense Department and the military as green as possible. This would have the advantage of being attractive to the Republicans, of getting the corporations on board, of potentially giving our military advantages in the field, and of being hard for the conservatives to argue against.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

29 Bodies Found in Baghdad
Erdogan Warns on PKK

29 bodies were found in Baghdad on Wednesday, according to McClatchy. There was also mortar fire in Baghdad, an attack on police in Mahawil, and US military clashes with the Mahdi Army of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

About that orphanage that the Iraqi government was running, where the children were starved and abused? The Iraqi government says it really wasn't so bad. And moreover, the US troops that rescued them were the ones who abused them. So there. Nyaah! Yep, the Bush administration has a real friend in Baghdad all right.

Steve Negus reports in the Financial Times on the PKK hideout in Qandil, Iraq, near the Turkish border:

' Their Qandil base, and two smaller enclaves closer to Turkey, have for the past two months been drawing world attention, with the Turkish military saying it is ready to strike across the border at the PKK as soon as it gets the green light from Ankara’s civilian leaders. Dozens of Turkish soldiers have been killed in recent months in clashes with the PKK inside Turkey, and the Kurdish guerrillas have been blamed for bombings that have caused civilian casualties, prompting the calls for a military assault. '

Meanwhile, Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan said it was the responsibility of the US and the Iraqi government to curb the PKK, which the US has formally designated a terrorist group. But he also said, "If needed we will take the necessary steps [for a cross-border operation] because we cannot allow the PKK any longer to carry out attacks . . ."

Ben Lando of UPI reports that a key author of the Iraqi draft petroleum law has turned into a critic because of recent revisions. These changes weaken the role of the federal government. I wouldn't expect that law to be passed any time soon, or its provisions to stand up over time anyway. Apparently Dick Cheney's entreaties that the parliament not take a summer recess have fallen on deaf ears. And in the current chaos, I doubt you could get a quorum of the MPs into the Green Zone for a vote.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Everyday Apocalypse in Iraq
War of the Mosques
142 Dead on Tuesday

142 persons were killed or found dead on Tuesday, and Wednesday morning two Sunni mosques in towns south of Baghdad were blown up.

On Tuesday, a huge truck bomb in Baghdad blew up a Shiite mosque dedicated to an important religious figure and killed 87 persons, wounding 214. This site was dedicated to Muhammad bin Uthman bin Sa`id al-`Amri, the second of at least four Deputies (wakil) who Shiites believe acted as intermediaries between the Hidden Twelfth Imam and believers during his first or "minor" Disappearance. Shiites believe that the Prophet Muhammad should have been succeeded by his close family and descendants. The 12th Imam, a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, they say, went into hiding as a small child in 874 AD after the death of his father, Hasan al-Askari, who had been put under house arrest by the Abbasid Caliphate. During the "minor disappearance" the Twelfth Imam was said to send letters to the Shiite community, and for many years sent them, they say, through Muhammad b. Uthman.

Many Iraqi Shiites, poor, bewildered, under siege by multiple political and military forces, have become millenarians and believe that the hidden Twelfth Imam will now come back any day as the Mahdi, the apocalyptic Guided One, who will restore the world to justice in preparation for the Judgment Day.

The Sunni Arab guerrillas know that this millenarian hope and fervor sustains many Shiites and that they are touchy about it. That is why they have twice bombed the shrine at Samarra, dedicated to the father and grandfather of the Imam Mahdi, and now have hit in such a powerful and gruesome way the mosque-shrine of the Imam Mahdi's second Deputy. (A traditionalist account of the Deputies of the Imam can be found here).

Hope for the coming of the promised one is all most Shiites have left, and the desecration of sacred sites associated with the Mahdi (analogous to the return of Christ for Christians) is especially likely to set off reprisal attacks against Sunnis. Since the guerrilla strategy in Iraq is to provoke a Sunni-Shiite civil war as a way of making the country ungovernable and forcing the Americans out, attacks on symbols of the Twelfth Imam are especially effective.

One unfortunate side effect of this shrine-destruction strategy is that the shrines are revered in Iran, as well, and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is a millenarian especially devoted to the cult of the Twelfth Imam. Sentiments of the Iranian public are also being stirred by these attacks (not to mention Hizbullah in Lebanon, and Shiites in Pakistan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, who increasingly blame the US for the desecrations). Religious politics is politics, and the US is being wrongfooted in a major way here.

The signs of the coming of the Twelfth Imam in Shiite tradition are as follows:

'The Sign consists of the following traits: the people will neglect prayer, squander the divinity which is conferred on them, legalize untruths, practice usury, accept bribes, construct huge edifices, sell religion to win this lower world, employ idiots, consult with women, break family ties, obey passion and consider insignificant the letting of blood. Magnanimity will be considered as weakness and injustice as glory, princesses will be debauched and ministers will be oppressors, intellectuals will be traitors and the reader of the Koran vicious. False witness will be brought openly and immorality proclaimed in loud voices. A word of promise will be slander, sin and exaggeration. The sacred Books will be ornate, the mosques disguised, the minarets extended. Criminals will be praised, the lines of combat narrowed, hearts in disaccord and pacts broken. Women, greedy for the riches of this lower world, will involve themselves in the business of their husbands; the vicious voices of the man will be loud and will be listened to. The most ignoble of the people will become leaders, the debauched will be believed for fear of the Evil they will cause, the liar will be considered as truthful and the traitor as trustworthy. They will resort to singers and musical instruments...and women will horse ride, they will resemble men and the men will resemble women. The people will prefer the activities of this lower-world to those of the Higher-World and will cover with lambskin the hearts of wolves."

Muqtada al-Sadr has alleged that the entire point of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq was to keep this decadent situation in place and to forestall the coming of the Mahdi by planting military bases around Iraq and the Persian Gulf. He says that the US Pentagon has an enormous file on the Mahdi.

In other words, the US and militant Sunni Arabs are felt by many Iraqi Shiites to be playing the role of Dajjal or "Anti-Christ", a figure whose purpose is to forestall the coming of the Imam Mahdi. Shiite tradition holds that the Mahdi will come together with the Return of Christ, and that the returned Christ will kill the Dajjal. (Ironically, some of the US troops fighting the Shiite millenarians may be evangelicals who also believe that the Return of Christ is near; Iraq is a wonderland for apocalytpicism).

Ideologically, the shrine bombings of the past week and a half are far more important than any mere military maneuvers. If the US cannot arrange for the shrine of the Imam Mahdi's Deputy in Baghdad itself to be protected better than that, it will never succeed in Iraq's religious politics, no matter how many ink spots it creates.

The US offensive in Baquba, the capital of Diyala province northeast of Baghdad, is intended to root out Salafi Jihadi forces among the Sunnis that have come to dominate entire neighborhoods and entire towns in the province, which lies between Baghdad and Iran. But most of the forces involved seem to be American and Shiite (the 2,000 'paramilitary police' mentioned are surely from the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council [SIIC], the leading Shiite party with links to Iran). Diyala has a Sunni majority, and a lot of the problems in that province began politically in the first place because SIIC has dominated it politically. In the short term, this operation may 'pacify' Baquba. But likely it will inflict tremendous damage on the city, will cause a lot of the 300,000 or so inhabitants to flee and become refugees, and will likely not change the political situation, which is Shiite dominance of Sunnis along with some Kurdish separatist plans for parts of the province. Falluja had 2/3s of its buildings destroyed and tens of thousands of its former inhabitants are living in tent cities in the desert with bad water, and Falluja is still not secure--kidnappings, shootings, mortar attacks, even car bombings are all still taking place there and in its environs.

There is also heavy fighting between Mahdi Army forces and Iraqi government troops in Nasiriya in the south, with British troops allegedly giving some support to the government side. Typically the 'Iraqi government' forces are actually drawn from the Badr Corps and so this is in a way two Shiite militias fighting one another. These clashes have reinforced the determination of the Sadr Movement MPs to suspend their participation in the parliament, which probably therefore lacks a quorum for the rest of the summer. The Sadrists say an agreement has been reached with the governor of Nasiriyah to end the fighing.

And on the northern front, a Turkish court has opened an investigation into Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani on charges that he is actively harboring PKK terrorists.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Vigil for Detained Iranian Intellectuals

Amnesty International is hosting a vigil in New York next week for three detained intellectuals, including my friend Haleh Esfandiari. I urge everyone who can attend, to do so, and make a special plea to fellow bloggers to publicize this event. (The bigger it is, the more successful it will be; a small showing is dangerous). Details below.

For background see these IC columns:

Protest Letter from MESA on Haleh Esfandiari's Detention

and

Haleh in Prison.

As readers know, I cancelled my own participation in a conference in Tehran at the end of June because I could hardly sit in a nice hotel room in that city knowing that Haleh was in the notorious Evin Prison just a few blocks away.

Again, please link the hell out of this announcement and lets get up a blog mob for the vigil.

==================

Amnesty International

In May the government of Iran arrested four Iranian-Americans: prominent U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, journalist Parnaz Azima and activist Ali Shakeri. Esfandiari, Tajbakhsh and Shakeri remain in detention without being able to see family, lawyers, or the ICRC. All four face serious charges stemming from their efforts to promote an Iranian-American dialogue and scholarly work and could be sentenced to long prison terms.

JOIN AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL, THE AMERICAN ISLAMIC CONGRESS AND HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH AS WE CALL FOR JUSTICE AND FOR THE RELEASE OF THE DETAINED IRANIAN-AMERICANS Haleh Esfandiari

SPEAKERS TO INCLUDE SHAUL BAKHASH, HUSBAND OF HALEH ESFANDIARI, AND ZAINAB AL-SUWAIJ OF THE AMERICAN ISLAMIC CONGRESS

WHERE: Dag Hammarskjold Plaza at 1st Avenue and 47nd Street across from the United Nations Plaza

WHEN: Wednesday June 27, 12 noon to 1 pm

Feel free to bring signs calling for freedom for the detained Iranian-Americans. This is to be a non-political and non-partisan action advocating human rights

For more information contact Sharon McCarter 202-691-4016 or Amnesty International USA 202-675-8755
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

111 Killed or Found Dead in Iraq on Monday
Al-Maliki to Ankara

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has accepted the Turkish government's invitation to visit Ankara. Al-Maliki says he is worried about PKK terrorism.

Al-Maliki should be careful. When his predecessor, Ibrahim Jaafari, flew to Istanbul for talks on Kirkuk, the Kurds in the Iraqi parliament and government engineered his downfall, with the help of the Sunni Arab MPs and the US ambassador.

The good news is that Iraq is not the most unstable failed state in the world according to a new study. The bad news? Only Sudan is worse.

30 tortured bodies were found in Baghdad on Monday and military and political violence took at least 81 more lives.

Two car bombs in the Saidiya section of Baghdad killed 9 persons and wounded 25, according to Reuters. The US fought pitched battles against Mahdi Army militiamen in Maysan Province (from which the British military had earlier withdrawn), leaving some 20 persons dead. The militiamen were suspected by the US of importing explosively formed projectiles from Iran. There was plenty of other mayhem in various part of the country. For instance, "A car bomb killed five Interior Ministry special forces personnel and wounded six others in the town of Samarra, north of Baghdad, police said."

There was also fighting between Iraqi government troops and the Mahdi Army in Nasiriyah.

Iran is open to further talks with the US about security in Iraq, according to its foreign ministry.

A warm congrats to Rajiv Chandrasekaran for winning the UK Samuel Johnson Prize for his "Imperial Life in the Emerald City. For my interview with Mr. Chandrasekaran, see here and here.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Situation in Gaza

I have been traveling and not able to spend as much time as usual scanning the news, but of course have followed the events in Palestine with dismay.

It is to be expected that a lot of comment in the United States on these events will be rife with racist attitudes and polemical dismissals. The Palestinians have long been demonized by the Western media, apparently for not going along quietly with their expulsion from their homes, the large scale theft of their land, and their reduction to an almost slave-like status of statelessness. Palestinians are not intrinsically more violent than anyone else, not essentially less able to administer or govern than anyone else. Few countries have not had civil wars or at least major civil conflicts. The question should be not "Why are Palestinians like that?"-- which is a racist question-- but what social and economic factors are driving the present conflict?

Why is it that so little analysis is offered of why things have developed as they have? Isn't anyone interested in the important differences between Gaza's economy and that of the West Bank? Gaza is much poorer and much more isolated from the world. Is it any big surprise that its population is more radicalized and might be drawn into supporting Hamas?

The Gazan population is being thrown into more misery by an Israeli blockade of electricity, fuel and even food. (Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that it will be a humanitarian blockade; if you believe that, I have a bridge over the River Jordan you can purchase inexpensively from me). UNRWA is warning against the blockade. With an unemployment rate of 50% and widespread malnutrition, caused by the ordinary everyday Israeli pressure on Gaza, the territory's population can't take much more extra deprivation without an immense human toll being exacted.

It seems obvious that Hamas will be overthrown in Gaza, jointly by Mahmud Abbas, Israel and the United States. But it seems unlikely that Mahmud Abbas will gain any genuine authority there if that is how he comes to power. And, the events of the past few days have driven a nail into the coffin of Bush's "democratization" program for the "Greater Middle East." The Haniyah Hamas government had come to power in free and fair elections, but was immediately boycotted, starved of resources, and actually often simply kidnapped by the Israelis; and is now being put out of office in a kind of coup. The people of the Arab world are not blind or stupid. If this is what the "Greater Middle East" looks like, it will too closely resemble, for their taste, the colonial 19th century, When Europeans dictated government to Middle Easterners.

If Bush and the Israelis couldn't live with a Hamas electoral victory, they should have exluded Hamas from running a year and a half ago. The Egyptians don't let explicitly religious parties contest elections, and a similar rule could have been made in Palestine. Holding an election, having people win it with whom you won't deal, and then overturning the election with militias, is a recipe for violence and instability. That's what happened in Algeria in the early 1990s, and it caused untold suffering.

The Israelis may be sighing a sigh of relief that the Palestinians are busy fighting one another for the moment. But what has happened is not good for Israel in the medium to long term, since I suspect it signals the end of the possibility of a viable Palestinian state. And, if you don't have a two-state solution, ultimately the likelihood is that Israel will be stuck with the Palestinians as citizens. The world is not going to look the other way forever as they are kept stateless, poor, landless and hungry.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

PKK Leader Warns Turkey on Incursions

Michael Howard of the Guardian interviewed a Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla commander in northern Iraq. Money graf:

'The Turkish army faces "a political and military disaster" if its generals give orders for a cross-border offensive, Cemil Bayik, one of the two most powerful figures in the Kurdistan Workers party, or PKK, told the Guardian at a hideout in the Qandil mountains on the border with Iran. Mr Bayik said his units did not seek a fight, but "would defend ourselves if attacked". It could become "a quagmire for them [the Turkish army] and create space for Iran to interfere in Iraq also," he said. '

Bayik's mindset is revealed when he talks about Turkish plans of 'annihilating Kurdishness.' Actually, things have changed in the past 30 years, though the good Lord knows that much remains to be done in ensuring that Turkish Kurds are first class citizens (not a goal that will be reached by thuggish, murderous PKK tactics). First of all, Turkish Kurds have spread all over Turkey as guest workers. There are millions living in cities such as Istanbul and other industrial centers. Political scientists studying their voting patterns have found that they vote like other Turkish citizens living in the same place. That is, Kurds in Istanbul vote like the Turks in surrounding neighborhoods. There is no pan-Kurdish political identity in Turkey. Only a tiny proportion of Turkish Kurds supports the PKK, which has a very nasty history as a far-left terrorist group that killed thousands. (In this interview, Cemil Bayik as much as admits that his group is still actively killing Turkish soldiers and police in Eastern Anatolia; this is the point of his posturing that the PKK no longer targets civilians [also untrue].)

The issue of the Kurdish north in Iraq is not theoretical. Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday and among the major incidents were these two:

'KIRKUK - A car bomb killed three people, including two Kurdish security force members, and wounded four other people in Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

KIRKUK - A U.S. soldier was killed in an explosion in Kirkuk province on Saturday, the U.S. military said in a statement.

McClatchy adds, "Two civilians were killed when gunmen opened fire targeting their truck on Al Abbasi- Biji street southwest Kirkuk city Saturday night."

This violence is a result of a struggle for oil rich Kirkuk among Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, a struggle that will intensify later this year over the planned referendum that will bring Kirkuk into the Kurdistan regional confederacy.

Other attacks reported by Reuters included a roadside bomb in Baghdad that killed 2 US soldiers on Saturday, a suicide carbombing near Baiji north of Baghdad that killed 3 Iraqi policemen and wounded 7 others, and an attack on policemen in the southern city of Nasiriya (probably Mahdi Army) that wounded one of them.

Then there was this:

'BAGHDAD - The body of Filaih Wadi Mijthab, the managing editor of the state-run al-Sabah daily newspaper, has been found in Baghdad's Sadr City neighbourhood, his newspaper said. He was kidnapped on Wednesday. '

The Iraq War has been among the hardest in history on journalists, and now another martyr to truth-telling has fallen.

McClatchy adds other attacks on Sunday:

'Three Iraqi soldiers were injured when an IED explosion targeted their patrol in Al Eskan intersection in Al Mansour neighborhood downtown Baghdad around 2 p.m.

Seven civilians were injured when mortar shells hit Salman Bak district in southeast Baghdad around 5 p.m.

Five bodies were found in Baghdad. . .

Two policemen were killed and 7 of their colleagues wounded when an IED explosion targeted their patrol near the entrance of Siniyah district north of Tikrit city early morning. . .

Medical and security sources said that 17 residents from Jizani Al Emam village had been killed and injured in the ongoing clashes that started Saturday between the residents of Jizani Al Emam village, one of the villages of Khalis town and what is called the Islamic State of Iraq. . .

At least 4 civilians were killed and 10 were wounded in a suicide bombing. The incident happened afternoon in Jbil district south Falluja when a suicide wearing a vest bomb detonated among the civilians who had gathered to renew their Falluja residency badges. . .

There was also violence in an around Baquba in Diyala province.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Kurds and Turks: Will they or Won't They?

Joshua Partlow has a good article in WaPo on the military friction at the Turkish-Iraqi border. It is based on interviews in Iraqi Kurdistan and with US military officials, however, and oddly lacks the perspective from Ankara.

I was just at an International Relations conference at Middle East Technical University in Ankara. I didn't seek out any serving Turkish politicians or diplomats for comment, but did talk informally to academics and retired ambassadors and officials of wide experience. I didn't advertise these conversations as interviews for a public article, however, so I won't name them. Anyway, they can't speak officially.

But here is what I heard them to say. First of all, the atmosphere in Ankara (Turkey's capital) is of extreme anger about the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government giving safe haven to guerrillas of the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK). I mean livid.

It should be remembered that leftist PKK guerrillas kicked off a low intensity war that left 35,000 persons dead in Turkey since 1984. In other words, PKK's campaign and the reaction to it have done 10 times more damage to Turkey than al-Qaeda has done to the United States. And, that is not even taking into account that Turkey is a fourth the size of the US, so you could say 40 times more. In the piece just linked, F. Stephen Larrabee estimates that "Since January 2006, PKK cross-border raids from safe havens in northern Iraq have led to roughly 600 deaths, many of them members of the Turkish security forces."

In other words, the Kurdistan Regional Government is playing the Taliban to the PKK's al-Qaeda, from the point of view of the Turkish government. It is harboring 5,000 PKK fighters. Turkey has a strong and impressive military tradition and does not take casualties in its security forces lightly. What is going on is clearly a casus belli.

It is quite amazing that the Bush administration has so far winked at this situation! Such a 'war on terror.'

Turkey has a new chief of military staff, Yasar Buyukanit, who is a Kemalist hardliner. He has warned against creeping fundamentalism in Turkey and has minced no words about the PKK threat.

The alleged recent border incursion by several hundred Turkish troops 2 miles into Iraq in hot pursuit of PKK fighters probably did occur, virtually everyone I talked to said. One observer suggested that Turkey might thereby be attempting to 'change the rules of engagement' with the PKK over the border. Such incursions are also opportunities for intelligence gathering. Turkish special ops teams have penetrated deep into Iraqi Kurdistan on occasion.

One reason the border incursion was a surprise is that Prime Minister Rejep Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party gets some support from Turkish Kurds. So why would he risk alienating them on the eve of an important election?

The order for the border incursion probably did not come from that high up. The Turkish commanders at the border have enough authority, I was told, to do a little hot pursuit like that without prior clearance if they feel it is important for military reasons.

So Erdogan probably wishes it hadn't happened. Kurds in Turkey are disproportionately rural or of recent rural origins and are typically more religious than urban Turks. Since the AK Party has a mild religious coloration, it holds some attraction for them.

Erdogan's rush to say that Turkey should deal with PKK guerrillas based in Turkish territory before it worries about those in Iraq was for the benefit of his Kurdish constituency. That sentiment clearly is not shared by Buyukanit and the Turkish military, which has a say in such matters under Turkey's system of dual sovereignty, where the military is the ultimate guardian of the values of the republic and doesn't care for the AK Party anyway. I think Partlow put too much emphasis on Erdogan's statement, which was clearly a piece of electioneering and isn't definitive in the Turkish system.

There was a recent bombing in Ankara that killed 14 persons, and in which PKK is suspected. It has denied responsibility. One retired Turkish diplomat said he accepted the recently advanced thesis that it was the work of a Turkish Maoist who is sympathetic to the PKK. Another observer found this charge hard to believe. Blaming a far-left Turk, however, would have the effect of reducing tensions with the Kurds, and would therefore serve Erdogan's purposes. I have no way of knowing the reality.

I brought up with several observers my nightmare, that the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq will certainly annex Kirkuk later this year, and that there may be as a result clashes between the Kurds and the Turkmen minority. Iraqi Turkmen, some 800,000 strong, have been adopted by the Turks of Turkey as sort of little brothers. I can't imagine the Turkish public standing for a massacre of Turkmen, and hundreds of thousands of people in the street could force Buyukanit to act decisively.

My colleagues universally agreed that the potential was there for an escalation of the crisis under such conditions. No one said I was exaggerating the risks. One former official who is an expatriate said that before he arrived in Ankara last week, he did not know just how angry people there were over this issue. He is now convinced that the situation is serious.

Partlow points out that if Turkey did take on the Iraqi Kurds over the haven they have given the PKK, the US would likely be forced to support Turkey, a NATO ally acting against a terrorist threat.

Partlow quotes Massoud Barzani as saying that Turkey has a problem with the existence of Kurds. This is a vast exaggeration. The status of Kurds in Turkey has substantially improved over the past two decades. Barzani neglected to mention the 35,000 dead in PKK's dirty war, or that he is actively harboring 5,000 PKK guerrillas. He recently went so far as to imply that if Turkey intervened on the Kirkuk issue, it would result in terrorism in Diyarbakir (a city in Turkey's eastern Anatolia). It was a shameful performance.

So I don't think Partlow's sanguine conclusions are justified. I think the situation in the north has entered a phase of continual crisis in which things could spiral out of control at any moment.

I continue to be just amazed that no one in authority in Iraq is taking any steps to try to avert such a crisis. I earlier suggested a partion of Kirkuk province before the referendum as a way of defusing the tensions. But it seems like that the referendum will be held in the whole province and that the whole of it will go to Kurdistan. Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has said that this development would be a cause for war in and of itself.

The train wreck continues to unfold.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Paramilitary Casualties Covered Up
Sistani condemns Attacks on Sunni Shrines, Mosques
Pakistan Rallies Condemn US

Highly paid "security guards" play an essential role in the US war against Iraqi guerrillas. They form a paramilitary, which has inevitably taken great numbers of casualties (they sometimes actually guard US troops!) Turns out that they have been taking casualties at far higher rates than the Pentagon or its private contractors have ever let on.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has signed a contract with UNESCO for the immediate rebuilding of the al-Askariya Shrine at Samarra, which was blown up again this week. The Sadr movement has suspended its participation in parliament until the shrine is rebuilt, and al-Maliki depends on those 32 votes. Muqtada al-Sadr, the young Shiite nationalist cleric, has called for a mass protest march on Samarra by Shiites. Al-Maliki is attempting to avoid the likely violence that would result if a lot of Shiites flooded into mainly Sunni Samarra, a stronghold of the Baath Party and Salafi Jihadis.

Angry Shiites bombed another Sunni mosque on Saturday morning, this time at Basra, that of al-`Asharah al-Mubashshirah. Sawt al-Iraq in Arabic says that eyewitnesses report very substantial damage to the edifice.

Shiites in Islamabad, Karachi and other Pakistani cities rallied Friday to protest the further bombing of the al-Askariya Shrine, which they alleged was a US black operation designed to set Sunnis and Shiites against one another and to partition Iraq:

"Demonstrators in Islamabad burnt flags of America, the Zionist regime and Britain and chanted slogans including "Death to America" and "Death to Zionists". [Pakistani] Senator Abbas Kameli told the demonstrators that a conspiracy was hatched to create rift among the Shiite and Sunnis but the people of Iraq have frustrated the conspiracy. He said that attack on al-Askari shrine was aimed at dividing the people of Iraq but the country is united and will remain united. Senator Kameli said thousands of innocent people have been killed since the US-led forces have arrived in Iraq. He added that foreign forces have committed more heinous crimes than Saddam Hussain. "

If you want to know what most Muslims really think about the US presence in Iraq, that about sums it up. The longer that presence continues in its current shape, the deeper and wider the hatred of the US will be.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani condemned Shiite attacks on Sunni mosques and holy places on Saturday, in the wake of the destruction of the shrine of Talhah b. Ubayd Allah (a companion of the Prophet and cousin of the first Sunni Caliph, Abu Bakr) near Basra and the mosque of al-`Asharah al-Mubashshirah. Talhah had fought Ali, the first Shiite Imam, at the Battle of the Camel.

In a further setback to the Bush-Blair assault on international law, the House of Lords has ruled that European Union conventions on human rights apply to Iraqi prisoners held by the British military. They must be given a right to a fair trial and representation and may not be tortured. The case arose out of the death of a prisoner who had 93 separate injuries.

Some recent US rulings, albeit in lower courts, have the same implication.

The US military in Iraq is launching a "sustained" campaign against "al-Qaeda" in Iraq. Since presumably this is what they have been doing for four years, I suppose it means they will do so now in accordance with better counter-insurgency tactics than just 'search and destroy,' which alienates the local population. The problem I foresee is that the guerrilla resistance to the US military presence in Sunni Arab Iraq isn't just the Salafi Jihadis or what the US calls 'al-Qaeda.' There are 50 cells of all ideological stripes, including four Baath Parties. I don't think the Iraqi Sunnis want us there (I think in polling only 8% said they did, and then to protect them from the Shiites; even the tribes fighting 'al-Qaeda' in al-Anbar province have no love for the al-Maliki government, for the most part).
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni Mosque Demolished
Turks Plan Buffer Zone inside Iraq

An important, historic Sunni shrine south of Basra was blown up on Friday, raising fears of further Sunni-Shiite sectarian killings and reprisals, according to Alissa Rubin of the NYT. The town of Zubayr near Basra is largely Sunni, though it is situated in the overwhelmingly Shiite deep south. Iraqi authorities put the large southern port of Basra (pop. 1.3 mn.) under curfew as a result.

Turkey is considering setting up a narrow security zone inside Iraqi territory to stop Kurdish PKK rebels who have been given safe harbor in Iraqi Kurdistan from raiding into Turkish territory and killing and blowing things up. The United States has signalled its coolness to the bruited plan.

Turkish tensions with Iraq are affecting business and investor confidence and even having a global impact. Turkey is the world's 18th largest economy and among the few substantial Middle Eastern states with a prospect of being a fairly developed country any time soon (outside the tiny oil states of the Gulf).

5 more US troops have been announced killed in Iraq. A US F-16 fighter jet crashed for unknown reasons.

Shanty towns are mushrooming in Iraq, posing severe social problems.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Khamenei, Global Demonstrations, Blame US
Demonstrations in Sadr City, Basra, Kashmir
3 Sunni Mosques Torched

Iran's Supreme Jurisprudent,Ali Khamenei, managed to blame the Iraqi Baath Party, the Wahhabi sect of Islam, the Salafi Jihadi radicals among Sunnis, and the United States, jointly for the blowing up of the minarets at the al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra. The shrine is among the holiest sites for the Shiite branch of Islam. Iran is the largest Shiite country, with 90% or so of its 70 million people adhering to it. Khamenei is both the head of the Iranian state and the head of Iranian Shiism, and is recognized as authoritative by some Shiites outside Iran, especially the Hizbullah Party of south Lebanon. Most non-Iranian Shiites follow instead Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf, who has called for calm. But Khamenei has a big megaphone among Shiites. His laying of responsibility for the bombing at the feet of the US will increase anti-American hatred in the Shiite world. Khamenei's heated and irrational rhetoric, positing a vast conspiracy among various groups that hate one another, is typical of the hardliners in Iran, but it is my impression that in recent months he has tended to leave the wilder talk to his rival Ayatollah Misbah Yazdi and his protege, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. I don't think Khamenei's remarks on this matter are a good sign.

The English text of Sistani's statement on the bombing of the shrine can be found here.

There were angry demonstrations by Muslims in Srinagar and elswhere in Indian Kashmir, at which the US was blamed for the Samarra bombing and Bush was burned in effigy: 'The protestors said that the US had launched a war against the Muslim world, and decried its policy in West Asia [i.e. Israel/Palestine]. . . Reports of protests have also come from other parts of the valley like Baramulla, Pattan, Mir Gund Divsar and Qazigund.'

Oh, great. Now Bush's Iraq blunder has made us hated in Mir Gund. He is such a great leader. I'll bet the people of Mir Gund once just ignored the United States. Bush got their attention all right. God talks to him and gives him missions, you know. To rile up Kashmiris in Mir Gund.

Not to mention the Caucasus. And we thought Azerbaijan was on our side.

And Bahrain, for a second day. Bahrain is not that big a place and 6,000 people are a lot there. Are there other good places in the Gulf for a naval base? I'd shop around.

And, wait until Friday afternoon in the Middle East and Asia. Shiites in Karachi, Pakistan, are planning fiery anti-American sermons and demonstrations. They are demanding that Pakistan cut off diplomatic relations with the US.

Tina Susman and Suhail Ahmad of the LAT provide ample anecdotal evidence that a lot of Baghdad Shiites are buying the conspiracy theory that the American military was behind the explosions in Samarra. Some even think that the US generals are in league with al-Qaeda. It is horrible, but I suppose it is ironic that Dick Cheney sent the poor US troops off to fight Saddam in Iraq on the ridiculous grounds that Saddam was in bed with al-Qaeda, so now those lies and conspiracy theories in Washington are being met by similar ones generated by Khomeinist Shiites, tying Cheney to al-Qaeda!

The biggest tragedy is that any sane person would have recognized after 9/11 that the US and the Shiites had a common enemy in Bin Laden and his ilk, and the US could have made up with Khatami's Iran. If the Iraq War had not happened, and the hardliners had not won the summer 2005 Iranian elections, the US position in the Muslim world would have been potentially strong by now. Instead, those great Islam scholars and political geniuses, Richard Perle and David Frum, managed to get Bush to put Iran in a cockeyed 'axis of evil.' It has been downhill ever since.

Meanwhile, in Baghdad, Reuters reports that a curfew and the presence of Iraqi and US troops in the street did not prevent large demonstrations from being held in Sadr City and in southern Shiite cities such as Karbala and Basra. In the capital, the Green Zone took mortar fire, as did the courtyard of the nearby al-Rashid Hotel (an employee was killed and several injured).

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Sadr City and some other Baghdad neighborhoods closed up their district gates for security reasons. There were also scattered clashes, it says, between Mahdi Army militiamen and Iraqi government & US forces.

There are reports of fair numbers of Iraqis defying the curfew to flee their homes in Baghdad in fear of sectarian reprisals. Some are showing up in displacement camps outside the city. Some are attacked by militiamen on the way.

South of Baghdad in the cities of Iskandariya and Mahaweel, angry Shiites torched three Sunni mosques.

On Wednesday, 23 bodies had been found in Baghdad, victims of death squad killings. Even with all the security and curfew, 5 bodies were found on Thursday.

McClatchy adds these incidents around the country:

' During the last 24 hours, seven people in Basra were killed in sectarian violence resulting from the Samarra explosions. . .

DIYALA: Around 5 p.m. Wednesday, gunmen planted bombs inside Ali Kamal al-Deen shrine in Arab Thuailib village, destroying the dome and a large portion of the shrine. . .

DIYALA: TV news reports Thursday said the head of Diyala university has disappeared. Earlier, he had reported that 12 university lecturers were killed and 44 others transferred to other universities seeking safety. . .

KIRKUK: Around 12:30 p.m. Thursday, a suicide bomber targeted the municipality building of al-Riadh district (west of Kirkuk) during the weekly session of the board. Six were injured - three soldiers, two policemen and a civilian. . .

ANBAR: Around 5:30 p.m. Wednesday, a suicide car bomber targeted the highway police patrol station in Fallujah, killing two policemen and injuring five others. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Samarra Fallout
Surge not Working

The Sadr Bloc in parliament [Sawt al- Iraq in Arabic] is threatening to suspend their participation in legislation in protest against the failure to rebuild and protect the Shiite Askariya shrine in Samarra. Often the Iraqi parliament, many of whose members live abroad, cannot get a quorum without the Sadrists (32 seats), who are more likely to be in Baghdad for votes. The Sadrists are blaming "the hidden hand of the Occupation" for the bombing (i.e. it is Bush's fault.) If they really do suspend participation in parliament, it would probably mean that no benchmark legislation will be passed any time soon-- not the petroleum law, not revision of the laws on de-Baathification, not constitutional amendments. Nada. Zilch.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for "self-discipline" and "refusal to target innocents in reprisal" for the blowing up of the shrine's minarets on Wednesday, according to the same report.

There appear to have been Sunni-Shiite clashes at mosques in the southern port city of Basra after Wednesday morning's bombing of the Askariya Shrine in Samarra. Some Sunni mosques were attacked elsewhere but a curfew in the northern cities probably forestalled some of that sort of retaliatory violence.

There was also a big labor demonstration in Basra on Wednesday by former workers at defunct Iraqi state-owned factories (petrochemicals, steel, etc.) who want the Iraqi government to revive these industries [in Arabic via Sawt al-Iraq]. The Bush administration shut down the state-owned factories as part of its plan to destroy Arab socialism, and appears to have believed that the magic hand of the market would miraculously start back up Iraqi industries. The bankruptcy of American laissez faire as a development tool is pretty obvious in the economic catastrophe that Bush visited on Iraq. This big labor demonstration will not be reported in the American press, which generally is pitched to be about and for people who make at least $80,000 a year.

Bahrain Shiites demonstrated in Manama against the further attack on the Askariya Shrine in Samarra. Buying into the widespread conspiracy theories in the region, many blamed the US, and chanted "Death to America." Sunni-ruled Bahrain hosts the most important US naval base in the Gulf. Two-thirds of Bahrainis are Shiites, and they feel disenfranchised by the Sunni monarchy and often resent the base.

An Iranian embassy official in Baghdad admitted that the Samarra attack was probably the work of the Iraqi Baath Party. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad had blamed the US, while the US fingered "al-Qaeda." The Baathists are the best candidate. Samarra is a Sunni Arab city with a strong Baath cell, and the Baathists are secularists who have a history of being willing to shell religious edifices for political reasons (e.g. attacks on Najaf in spring 1991). My readers who like conspiracy theorists should pay attention to this story; an Iranian observer in Baghdad would likely have some intelligence on this matter. In the first Sawt al-Iraq story cited above, Iraqi Sunni vice president Tariq al-Hashimi also implicitly blamed the Baathists.

One in six US-trained Iraqi policemen are killed or vanish. Makes it hard to recruit police and even harder to recruit police who will actively patrol neighborhoods. This is one problem with the US surge strategy, which is that it depends heavily on getting Iraqi security forces to do neighborhood policing in Baghdad. A high-risk activity.

Violence has surged in Iraq since the beginning of the new security plan according to a Congressional study. There was initially, in February and March, a decrease in sectarian death squad killings (i.e. bodies in the street in cities like Baghdad), but those have mostly gone back up. The significant decrease of attacks in al-Anbar province, which appears to have to do with the chieftains of the Dulaim and other major tribes turning on the Salafi Jihadis formerly active there was offset by increased violence in Diyala and Ninevah Provinces. More suicide bombings are now taking place daily in Iraq as a whole than before the 'surge.' The population of Baghdad Province, about 1/4 of the country, is especially favorable toward militias as a tool of neighborhood self-protection, not an attitude shared by Iraqis in most of the rest of the country.

The report finds that about a third of Iraqis are now in favor of partition of the country. But that statistic is useless if we are not told more about the sample. Some 20% of Iraqis are Kurds, and almost all of them want to secede. If it is a weighted sample with strong Kurdish participation, then it would suggest that few Arab Iraqis favor partition, which is what my guess would be.

One caveat is that studies like this often focus on major attacks, especially bombings, which had some degree of success. But the Lancet study of 1800 households found that 86% of violent deaths come from people just being shot down, and that this sort of violence is common throughout the country, not just in select provinces. Not all of it is political in character (there are Mafia turf wars, tribal feuds, etc., which go along with having a failed state such as that in Iraq). About a third of violent deaths came from US military activities. Since the US has begun bombing Iraqi cities again as part of the 'surge,' deaths from aerial strikes have certainly risen, but these probably are not even counted in the Congressional study. Some 500 Iraqis are probably being killed a day in such daily violence, a fraction of the deaths reported by US wire services, though most of these deaths are not specifically "insurgent-" or "politically" derived.

Reuters reports major political violence for Wednesday. Three US troops were announced killed. Other major incidents:

' BAGHDAD - Four civilians were killed and 10 wounded when several mortar rounds hit residential areas in south and southwestern districts of Baghdad, police said. . .

RAMADI - Four Iraqi policemen were killed and 11 officers wounded by a suicide car bomber targeting their checkpoint outside Ramadi, 110 km (68 miles) west of Baghdad. . .

KHAN BANI SAAD - One person was killed and eight wounded on Tuesday when a truck laden with chlorine exploded near an Iraqi army base in the town of Khan Bani Saad [Diyala], about 30 km (20 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said. . .

MANDILI - A bomb targeting the police chief of the town of Mandili killed three of his bodyguards and wounded five other people, including the police chief, police said. Mandili is in Dilyala Province, near the Iranian border. . .

KIRKUK - A bridge southwest of Kirkuk connecting this northern city with Tikrit was blown up overnight in a roadside bomb attack, police said. . .

Bill O'Reilly does not think any of this is important, or, actually, thinks reporting what goes on in Iraq is a form of treason. Just remember, as Orwell's 1984 reminds us: "War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Samarra Shrine Attacked

The Golden Dome or Askariya Shrine in Samarra had its minarets blown up on Wednesday. The shrine is among the holiest in the Shiite world, dedicated to the father and grandfather of the hidden Twelfth Imam. Millenarian Shiites believe that the hidden Imam will one day return to restore the world to justice and herald the Judgment Day (i.e. he is like the second coming of Christ for Christians).

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for restraint. Muqtada al-Sadr called for three days of mourning and blamed the US for being behind the attack. Muqtada likes conspiracy theories. Then Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad joined in with the conspiracy, addressing Washington and saying, "You, by supporting these actions, are making it harder for yourselves."

US officials blamed "al-Qaeda." But it is just the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement or rather one of its cells, which is trying to throw the country into turmoil as an insurgency strategy.

Ahmadinejad's reaction demonstrates how dangerous it is for the US to remain the occupying power in a country full of crucial Shiite shrines. If the US cannot protect them, it will be blamed for the desecration, and Americans will be much less safe.

This is what I said about the February, 2006, bombing of the shrine, which sent Iraq spiralling down into civil war.

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Fox News: Bimbos in, Iraq out
Mashhadani to Sue
Iran: Captured Diplomats Must not Be Harmed

Fox Cable News spent more time than other cable news networks covering Anna Nicole Smith, and spent much less time covering Iraq than the other networks. Gee, back in 2003 they seemed to have a lot about Iraq. I guess Faux News is only interested in stories that further the agendas of Rupert Murdoch and his Republican Party:

' "Fox spent half as much time covering the Iraq war than MSNBC during the first three months of the year, and considerably less than CNN. The difference was more stark during daytime news hours than in prime-time opinion shows. The Iraq war occupied 20 percent of CNN's daytime news hole and 18 percent of MSNBC's. On Fox, the war was talked about only 6 percent of the time. Another story that has reflected poorly on the Bush administration, the controversy over U.S. attorney firings, also received more attention on MSNBC (8 percent of the newshole) and CNN (4 percent) than on Fox (2 percent), the Project for Excellence in Journalism found. '

At last, an explanation for the 33% who think Bush is doing a good job in Iraq! They are not getting any news about what is going on there from Republican Party t.v.!

Hat tip to Dan Marsh.

Deposed Iraqi speaker of the house Mahmud al-Mashhadani is challenging the decision of parliamentarians to replace him, saying he will sue.

Just an observation that the Bush Administration's "surge" was intended to restore security to Baghdad so as to give the Iraqi parliament and executive breathing space to achieve a number of benchmarks, pass key legislation, and pursue reconciliation among sects and parties. Does that look likely to you?

Iran says it is ready for further talks with the US but warns that its 5 diplomats, which the US military detained in Irbil, must not be harmed or the US would "regret it."

Roadside bombs in several districts of Baghdad, also in Hawija.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases Iraqi news items for June 12 [bracketed comments by Cole]:

Al-Sabah carries on page 3 a 560-word report entitled "Muqtada al-Sadr Visits Grand Religious Authority in His House in Al-Najaf; Al-Sistani Blesses Al-Sadr Trend's Efforts To Bring Shiites, Sunnis Together." . . Al-Mashriq carries on page 3 an 80-word report saying that Al-Sadr visited Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani at his house in Al-Najaf. Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 180-word report citing a source at Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's Office saying that Muqtada al-Sadr visited Al-Sistani at his house. . . Al-Bayan carries on the front page a 240-word report entitled "Salah al-Din's Tribes Vow To Fight Al-Qa'ida Organization; 130 Tribal Chiefs Decide To Fight Terrorist Groups in Cooperation With Government." . . Al-Sabah runs on page 2 a 140-word report entitled "Al-Hakim in Tehran To Continue Second Stage of His Treatment." . . Al-Sabah carries on page 2 a 160-word report entitled "Security Tension Following destruction of Al-Sadr Bureau in Al-Fadiliyah District." . . Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 400-word report entitled "Evacuation of Iranian Villages Along Kurdish Borders; Kurdish Government Demands Iraqi Security Forces to defend Borders." .l .

For June 11:

Ishraqat al-Sadr on 10 June carries on the front page a 220-word report citing Hazim al-A'raji, during the Friday sermon in Al-Kazimiyah, calling on the government to stop Al-Qa'idah's terrorist acts in Diyala and praising Al-Mahdi Army for protecting Al-Kazimiyah. . . Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 430-word report citing Al-Sadr Trend calling on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to delay the settlement of the Kirkuk Issue. Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 200-word report citing former Iraqi National Bloc member Mahdi al-Hafiz strongly criticizing the proportional power sharing-system and that the national unity government is a big lie. . . Al-Bayyinah carries on the front page a 130-word exclusive report citing Abd-al-Karim al-Anzi, parliament member from the Unified Iraqi Coalition, strongly criticizing Iyad Allawi and Salih al-Mutlag for their attempts to foil the government . . Al-Mada runs on the front page a 150-word report citing Shiite Scholar Muqtada al-Sadr calling on Turkey to deal peacefully with the Kurdish Labor Party and confirming that attacking northern Iraqi villages is not acceptable. . . Al-Adala runs on the front page a 200-word report citing Qasim Dawud from the Unified Iraqi Coalition criticizing demands of some countries to receive money in return of keeping Iraqi refugees in their territories. . . Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 120-word report citing the Al-Fadhilah Islamic Party criticizing the performance of the foreign Ministry regarding the Iraqi refugee crisis. . . Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 270-word report citing a security source in Maysan confirming the seizure of a number of artifacts prepared for smuggling in Al-Butayrah District. . . [Antiquities smuggling funds a lot of militia activity in Iraq.] Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 170-word report entitled "Ten Insurgents Affiliated With Al-Qa'ida Organization Arrested in Karbala." . . [Karbala is the site of an extremely sacred shrine; if the Salafi Jihadis blow it up, Iraq is over with for some time.] Ishraqat al-Sadr on 10 June carries on page 2 a 140-word report citing the Karbala Governor Aqil al-Khaz'ali saying that the governorate has decided to allow Karbala University's professors to carry weapons and have a bodyguard for each. . . Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 70-word report saying that a new police commander will be appointed in Basra. . . Al-Mashriq carries on page 4 a 100-word report saying that 5% of Iraqi families live in absolute poverty. . . Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 100-word report on the general strike announced by Basra University employees. . . Al-Da'wah on 10 June carries on page 7 a 670-word unattributed article strongly criticizing the Wahabist Movement for distorting Islam and calling for eradicating this movement. . . [Da'wa is the party of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Wahhabi Islam is the state religion of Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has turned down a request from al-Maliki to come visit him in Riyadh.] Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 900-word report on the statement issued by the Mujahidin-e-Khalq Organization yesterday, 10 June warning that the Iranian regime is planning to take advantage of US occupation forces' chaotic situation to impose its control over Diyala Governorate. . .

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Militiant Sufism in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview with a spokesman for a militant offshoot of the Naqshabandi order in Iraq that fights the US military presence. Naqshbandis are known as a Sunni Sufi order and have been more "orthodox" and tied to legalism than most other mystic brotherhoods. Many Kurds are Naqshbandis, but they are pro-American. This is an offshoot of an Arab branch of the order. Note that most Naqshbandis and indeed most Sufis are peaceful.

Naqshabandi Order Spokesman Discusses Group's Beliefs, Operational Goals Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary Tuesday, June 12, 2007 Terrorism: Naqshabandi Order Spokesman Discusses Group's Beliefs, Operational Goals On 6 June, a jihadist website posted an interview from the Iraqi satellite channel, Al-Zawra, with Dr. Salah al-Din al-Ayyubi, the official spokesperson of the Sufi Iraqi insurgent group known as The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order. He described its formation, beliefs, and operational goals. Dr. Ayyubi claimed the Naqshabandi Order has existed since the beginning of the US occupation of Iraq, and that its operations target "only the unbeliever occupier," not Iraqi citizens. With regard to uniting with other insurgent groups, Dr. Ayyubi stated that uniting under one leadership would result in a decrease in operations due to lack of freedom. Regarding negotiations with "occupation forces" or the Iraqi Government, he stated that "we are not negotiators," and that "we want to force out the enemy." The interview ended with a call from Dr. Ayyubi to force out the "unbelieving enemy" and to abstain from the political process until "the last occupying soldier gets out of our land." A translation of the the interview follows: In the Name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate The official spokesperson of The Army of Men of the Naqshabandi Order We will fight for the integrity and unity of Iraq, land and people, to maintain its Arab and Islamic identity and we will be prepared for their projects of division. We did not and will not target any Iraqi ... loving the Arab is faith and their hate is blasphemy The Army of Men of the Naqshabandi Order An Interview with the spokesperson of The Army of Men of the Naqshabandi Order by the Iraqi Satellite Channel Al-Zawra (Al-Zawra) Following the occupation of Iraq by the Americans and their allies, and after what had happened of confrontations and resistance in Iraq, Islamic and national resistance factions have emerged over the past four years. Recently, a new resistance faction emerged and announced itself in the name of The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order. What attracts attention is that this faction announced qualitative operations which go back to the first days of occupation. These operations are also characterized by force and progress, pointing out that that this Army has been present in the arena since the beginning of occupation but it revealed itself after approximately four years of occupation. In an opportunity made available to the Iraqi Satellite Channel Al-Zawra, we interviewed the spokesperson of The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order, Dr. Salah al-Din Al-Ayyubi, in the capital Baghdad to give us a clear image of the basic nature, ideology, size, capabilities and objectives of The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order. We welcome Dr. Salah al-Din Al-Ayyubi, spokesperson for The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order. Welcome. (Al-Ayyubi) Welcome and Greetings from God. (Al-Zawra) Many of the audience call us and ask about the Naqshabandi Order, will you please give us an idea about what is the Naqshabandi Order, and what does this name mean? (Al-Ayyubi) In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. Praise be to God, Lord of all creation. Peace and prayers be upon our Prophet Muhammad and upon all of his family and companions and supporters and who followed them by performance of good deeds to the Day of Resurrection, followed their path and struggled with them. The Naqshabandi Order is to work according to God's Sharia and to have the ethics of Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayers be upon him, and follow him in his state of affairs, sayings, and deeds, and consequently tasting the sweetness of faith. Following the Koran and Sunnah of Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayers be upon him, will lead Man to the state of benevolence, which is fear of God as set forth in Al-Hadith al-Nabwi al-Sharif, where He says: "Benevolence is to worship God as if you see H im and if you do not see Him, He will see you." (Al-Zawra) Yes, there are a multitude of factions such as the Naqshabandiyah, Al-Qadiriyah, Al-Rifa'yah and Al-Shaziliyah, why all these names? And is there any difference between them? (Al-Ayyubi) Of course, all orders mean to work according to the Koran and the Sunnah of His Prophet, peace and prayer be upon him. But this deed will not be complete and perfect and will not give good results unless the Muslim accompanies a believer who preceded him in this field and is familiar with self-plots and the devil's pitfalls, tasting sweetness of faith and cognizant of the provisions of this great religion so as to be a guide according to the Koran and Sunnah. The names of these orders are after good scholars whom people believed in their sincerity and honesty in following the Koran and Sunnah, implicitly and explicitly. For that reason, many of the students and believers, who aimed to follow God's Messenger (peace and prayer be upon him) and work according to Koran and Sunnah of Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayer be upon him, gathered around these orders to taste the sweetness of working according to them (Koran and Sunnah). These orders took their names from the instructor shaykh whom they followed, gathered around and learned from his springs of knowledge. Therefore, the Naqashabandiyah, for example, took its name from a good shaykh called Shaykh Muhammad Baha al-Din, and Al-Qadiriyah took its name from a good shaykh called Shaykh Abd al-Qader al-Kilani and so did the Al-Rifa'yah and Al-Shaziliyah, and all the other orders. (Al-Zawra) Then, is the difference in names ideological, methodological or something else? (Al-Ayyubi) Certainly, the difference in orders is a difference in the educational approach of a shaykh for his students and his followers according to the Koran and Sunnah from the approach of another Shaykh. Other than that all have one approach which is the Koran and Sunnah of Prophet Muhammad (peace and prayer be upon him) and not as understood by others. As for the orders attributed to Sufi and which do not follow the Koran and Sunnah, the Sufi is free from them. Sufi is deed, faith and taste according to Koran and Sunnah and does not differ one hair's breadth from them. This means that what is in agreement with the Koran is the Sufi and nothing else and what differs from them is a type of misled heresy and inducement. (Al-Zawra) The Naqshabandiyah is distinguished with something called "league," will you please clarify to us what is the "league" of the Naqshabandiyah, because some people do not understand it and some others defame the Naqshabandiyah because of the "league," so what is the "league?" (Al-Ayyubi) Certainly, the "league" in the Naqshabandi Order is that the faithful companion remembers his shaykh and companion from whom he learned. That means he remembers his Muhammadiyah ethics until he is prepared to imitate and follow him. It is a chain of a companion learning from a companion ... and so on until the person communicates with God's Messenger, the owner of great ethics, peace and prayer be upon him. For example, he remembers his shaykh's bravery in forgiving the wrongdoer and forgives him, remembers his faithfulness and believes him, remembers his sincerity and becomes sincere to him, remembers his determination in the self-struggle in satisfying God and struggles to satisfy God, remembers his shaykh's determination in fighting against the unbeliever occupier and fights the unbeliever occupier and so on. This is according to God's saying "If ye do love God, Follow me: God will love you and forgive you your sins" (Koranic verse; Al-Imran 3:31) and God's Messenger, peace and prayer be upon him, saying "Man is on religion of his companion, see who you accompany". Following the path will be implicit and explicit, which means by the explicit ethics such as generosity and good temper with the neighbor and by implicit ethics as quitting jealousy and the selfness diseases, whi ch take man away from his God. (Al-Zawra) Yes Dr., you mentioned that the student remembers the jihad of his shaykh and then struggles, will you please give us a brief idea about your jihad movement? (Al-Ayyubi) We set out in our blessed jihadist movement on a legitimate basis, because the jihad is a religious duty set forth in the Koran and the Sunnah of the Prophet. The jihad as mentioned by the nation's jurists in the juristic books becomes a duty against any country in which a disbelieving enemy prepared its army to invade them and reached to the distance of the palace and was intending to enter that country. On that basis, our scholar and shaykh demanded us for jihad for the sake of God since the disbelieving enemy reached the borders of our country in some of the neighboring countries. Thank God, we started jihad and resisted occupation side by side with our former Iraqi army before the entry of the disbeliever to our capital Baghdad. Our jihad continued, we are in the arena and have not abandoned it so far and anyone following up honestly our operations will be witness to that. (Al-Zawra) Yes, but how did you organize yourselves after the occupation? (Al-Ayyubi) After the enemy was able, at the beginning, to occupy Iraq under circumstances known to all and since the first days of occupation, we started organizing the followers of the Order in Baghdad and several provinces more accurately and in a more organized manner in jihadist leagues to wage a war of attrition (means irregular war, war of attack and retreat). That type of war was suitable at that time for confronting a regular enemy possessing the strongest and most sophisticated war machinery. By the end of 2004, numbers of our mujahidin increased until they reached thousands and their fighting effectiveness increased, qualitatively and quantitatively. These operations are documented and photographed in all their phases, praise be to God. But we have not announced them on time for security and tactical reasons. The field activities were managed in a non-centralized manner by the field princes and leaders in the regions and provinces. But the qualitative and big military operations were planned and managed centrally by the headquarters of the leadership of our jihadist formations. Following the military defeat of the American enemy and after it was inflicted with wounds by the hits of our mujahidin and the mujahidin of other factions and after it started to think of withdrawing, the leadership of our Jihadist formations made a decision to re-arrange the jihadist leagues and formations as a regular army that gathers between the intention, determination and ideology of the faithful mujahidin on one side, and the organization and discipline of a regular army in preparation to wage the decisive battles aiming at liberating Baghdad and every span of the hand of Iraq's territory, on the other. Thus, we transformed into a regular army in conformity with the surrounding circumstances and adopted the name of The Army of the Men of the Naqashabandi Order. (Al-Zawra) Yes, so you have been present in the arena since the beginning of occupation, but you have not announced yourselves since the beginning? (Al-Ayyubi) Yes, certainly we did not announce ourselves then, because jihad has its special and time circumstances and every circumstance has its own particularity. It was necessary not to reveal ourselves at that time (beginning of occupation) and to appear in the second epoch, and the contrary is possible. These are fighting tactics which the specialists know, and the majority of our army is of the former Iraqi army, praise be to God. This is in addition to the fact that we wanted to inform the American enemy and its tails that there are huge jihadist armies that will surprise them, later on, with what they have not taken into account, God willing. (Al-Zawra) What about selection of name ... you selected the name The Army of the Men of the Naqashabandi Order, why did you choo se the name The Army of the Men of the Naqashabandi Order? What is the reason? (Al-Ayyubi) Dear brother, we selected this name (The Army of the Men of the Naqashabandi Order) for many reasons: First: The men of this Order are well known to all (far and near) and to the enemies of Islam, in particular. They are known for their manly characteristics, their continuous jihad, their bravery, sacrifice for their religion, and for their dignity and support for the oppressed whoever they may be. Consequently, the mujahidun leaders adopted this blessed name for its influence in the hearts of the enemies and to bother them with what they know of the qualities of these men. Second: The honest and dedicated persons who affiliated to these jihad groups were known to the people by this name before and during the occupation. It was difficult to change from this name to another name. In the old times, the first Muslim and Arab men in their jihad invaded their enemy with their declared names and without any cover and within the sight and hearing of their enemy during the daylight because they were right. We, too, are right and our issue is clearly known by the fair and wise men. Third: We want to send a message to the oppressive enemy that we are neither intimidated by nor scared of appearing in this name. This is in itself heroism and manliness that bothers the enemy, pleases the friends, and gains the admiration of the fair and wise people. (Al-Zawra) Regarding the logo of The Army of the Men of the Naqashabandi Order, we noticed that you used the map of the Arab world as a logo for your army instead of the map of Iraq, which is a strange matter, why? (Al-Ayyubi) We used this logo because our Islamic nation has its own peculiarity of virtues and honored considerations known by all people. This matter annoyed its enemies and made them bear malice against it and made it their enemy everywhere and every time since the beginning of Islam. We believe that they will continue in this approach forever. As a result of their malice against our Islamic nation, they plotted against us in a variety of ways and under glittering names. By these pretexts, they tore the countries of Muslims and dispersed them from their countries. On this basis, we understand and believe that the Arabs are the essence and spirit of Islam. They are the first bearers of the banner, and they disseminated Islam throughout the world the fact which is admitted by other non-Arab peoples. As a result, love of Arabs was connected with love of Islam, and Arab glory was connected with Islam's glory, and Arab degradation with Islam's degradation. Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayer be upon him, said "love of Arabs is faith and their hatred is blasphemy." In another narration "and their hatred is hypocrisy." This understanding is based on "Don't forget favor among you," which means that the Arabs have transferred Islam to other nations and so became of preference to other nations and only people of preference know the preference of others. The other matter is that the Arabs have precedence in embracing Islam due to the fact that the Koran was revealed to their Prophet and in their language. Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayer be upon him, was an Arab and no one is more Arab than him. In that concept, Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayer be upon him, says "Love the Arabs for three because I am an Arab, the Koran is in Arabic, and the speech of paradise people is Arabic." Muslims with their different languages, colors and national belonging in the East and the West believed in this doctrine and believed their Prophet, peace and prayer be upon him, which created a firm and basic doctrine in every Muslim and every insightful wise person that the glory of Arabs is the glory of Islam and their degradation is degradation of Islam. Our Prophet, peace and prayer be upon him, told us about this concept, by saying "If Arabs are degraded, Islam will be degraded." On this basis, our aspiration was to start by glorifying this matter and announce it openly through this logo. Therefore we laid out the map of the Arab homeland and selected it due to its ideological and faith meanings. By that, we are not abandoning the rights of any Muslim in any place, but we started with the more important then with the important. (Al-Zawra) Yes Dr. Salah al-Din.Your approach is a jihadist approach; could you please clarify this approach? (Al-Ayyubi) Our jihadist approach is Islamic based on the Koran and Sunnah of His Messenger, peace and prayer be upon him, and founded on pillars. I can sum up now the most important of these pillars: Pillar One: Our jihadist operations target the unbeliever occupier (Al-Zawra) Only the unbeliever occupier? (Al-Ayyubi) Yes, only the unbeliever occupier including persons, vehicles, machinery and equipment everywhere on land, water and sky of Iraq, and at any time. Pillar Two: We did not and will not target any Iraqi, regardless of his/her nationality, religion or doctrine and our hands are not stained with blood of any Iraqi at all, and we will not be like that, God willing. Pillar Three: We accuse a Muslim (means people of no god but God) of unbelief only according to legitimate constants (if openly practices unbelief), which means announced unbelief. This is a consensus of Muslims. We do not accuse of unbelief by suspicions, desires or controversial matters. Pillar Four: We do not and will not break off relations with any faithful honest jihadist faction, rather we will cooperate. We are now cooperating with several of them as long as guns are aimed at the chests of enemies, and as long as these factions adhere to the constants of Sharia and national agenda. Pillar Five: We are not involved in the political process game, because it is invalid by law and religion under the occupation. Moreover, dealing with the occupier, directly or indirectly, is not possible. Pillar Six: We will fight for the integrity and unity of Iraq, land and people, to maintain its Arab and Islamic identity. We will be prepared for their projects of division, regardless of these projects' names. We will not abandon weapons until we liberate the last span of hand of our land. Our jihadist march will continue until God honors us with one of the two (victory or martyrdom). All our Army affiliates are suicide bombers, praise be upon God. Pillar Seven: Our army adopts the reserve system (substitutes). That means if any of the leadership elements is lost, his reserve will replace him, and if this reserve is lost, his reserve will succeed him, and so on. A reserve will succeed another until the last mujahid in this army. This system is set up so as not to let the enemy think of arresting the leaders of this army or think that if the leadership of the Army exterminated, the army will end. We anticipated that beforehand and established this Army on the basis of this approach following the reserve system established by God's Messenger (peace and prayer be upon him) in the Mu'ta Battle. Praise be to God Pillar Eight: If, God forbid, one of our Army's affiliates is lost or captured, and we fear that a violation might happen, we speedily restructure the formation of which he is a part. Pillar Nine: We have hundreds of affiliates from our former Iraqi Army, including dozens of high rank and higher education (Doctorate and Masters Degrees) in different specializations. Pillar Ten: We have hundreds of religious scholars and students of religious sciences, including dozens of high rank and higher education (Doctorate and Masters Degrees). Pillar Eleven: The state of the faithful mujahidin in the battlefield is described by Hadith Sharif quoted from Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayer be upon him, "The faithful to the faithful is like a structure in which each part strengthens the other." Since the first days of jihad, many groups followed us in our jihadist approach and benefited from our experience in using we apons and rockets. They assisted us as we assisted them on hitting the unbelieving occupier in different fields. The decision we made to transform our groups into an army many years before this declaration, raised the concern of certain jihadist factions. As a result these factions gathered their ranks, unified their groups and increased their jihadist work in terms of power and organization benefiting from our military experience in organizing and preparation of plans and orientation of fighters, morally and ideologically. We strengthened them and they strengthened us, God's favor, and we cooperated in strongly hitting the unbelieving occupier and wounded them. Praise be to God. Our approach is fully posted on our website and you can see it. (Al-Zawra) Every army has a special formation; could you please give us an idea about the formation of your Army? (Al-Ayyubi) The essence of our Army is jihad and its spinal cord are the followers and lovers of the Order, and these are basically and spiritually well-organized. They were an Islamic ideological and spiritual organization before occupation. When the country was occupied, their work and spiritual and worshipping system transformed into a jihadist military, spiritual, system aimed at supporting religion and liberating the country. Then it was transferred into a more accurate organization that is into military jihadist groups then into a military system similar to the system of our former army. Every formation or organization fits with the surrounding circumstances. We are now, with God's favor, in continuous development, in terms of organizing, number and equipment. We have established local workshops in which we manufactured and developed many weapons and equipment, which we use in our jihad against the unblieving occupier. All was done with local and self-capabilities and under the supervision of specialists and experts from our Army. Some of these workshops are big and others are small even there are workshops in kitchens supervised by women and children. We live a state of permanent alertness in our conscience, homes and markets and in all the places of our existence. We alerted the sperm in the loins and the embryo in the wombs of mothers. We have a deep-routed jihadist spirit. We have patience in jihad and we will not become tired or bored, and are not desperate about victory, God willing, but we are sure of God's saying "There is no help except from God. The Exalted, the Wise." (Koranic Verse; Al-Anfal 8:10) We are also certain of God's saying "How many few numbers defeated large numbers, God willing, and with the patient ones." (Al-Zawra) Now, we come to the characteristics of the mujahidin in your Army, what are these characteristics? (Al-Ayyubi) The strength of this Army is not only in the strength of its formations and completeness of its weapons and equipment and accuracy of its organization, its strength is also in the faith and honesty filling the hearts of its mujahidin. That was manifested in their jihad; they are men honest in what they pledged God to do. Their characteristics are the same characteristics that we put as conditions for anyone who wants to join our army. These characteristics might be summed up in the following: A. They are faithful and honest persons committed to their jihadist ideology and adhered to the principle of their right to defend their religion and homeland. B. Their leader holds the spirit of the soldier and the soldier holds the characteristic of the leader in terms of discipline and in a spiritual and military pattern following the example of Sayyidna Abu-Ubaydah and Sayyidna Khalid Bin al-Walid, may God be pleased with them, in Al-Yarmuk Battle. C. Our men are seeking to please their God to whom be ascribed all perfection and majesty. They are men of asceticism in this immortal world and for that reason they are brave and daring men who are not intimidated by de ath. On the contrary, they are adorers of death and seek it deliberately, asking for martyrdom for the sake of God and in support of Islam and liberation of the country. They are certain that the unbeliever and his killer cannot be in hell together. D. They are obedient without any hesitation. They obey their leaders and commanders following their Prophet Muhammad, peace and prayers be upon him, saying "who obeyed my prince, obeyed me; and who obeyed me obeyed God." E. They are trained and continue to be trained on all kinds of fighting. Some of them are specialized in certain specializations within this Army similar to our former Iraqi Army. (Al-Zawra) Do you have cooperation or coordination relations with the other resistance factions? Why do you not unite with the remaining resistance factions in the arena? (Al-Ayyubi) Praise be to God, we have coordination and cooperation relations with most of the Islamic and national jihad factions which have national agendas and do not have external connections or other objectives they want to achieve on the Iraqi territory. (Al-Zawra) Then Dr. why you do not unite with them? (Al-Ayyubi) Regarding uniting with the rest of the jihad factions, although people find strength in union, we believe union in these circumstances does not serve jihad for several matters: Matter One: The enemy now is in a stalemate and wants whoever helps it to exit the stalemate. Whenever it finds a gap or a breach, it will infiltrate through it. The possibilities of breach due to integration with other jihad factions operating on the arena are probable and existing due to the extensiveness of the jihad arena. Matter Two: The multiplicity of the factions operating in the arena is in itself is reason for dispersing the efforts of the enemy and consequently, does not enable it to focus on one aspect. This in itself weakens the enemy and at the same time strengthens the mujahidin. Matter Three: The jihad factions operating in the arena are fighting cells and groups not organized under one leadership despite the fact that each faction has its own peculiarity and organized leadership in a manner that fits the current circumstances of our country. Accordingly, operations will increase and will perplex the enemy. Contrary to that, if the factions organized under one leadership, the jihad operations would decrease because the movement of groups, under many leaderships, gives it more freedom to make rapid decisions and rapid response against the enemy. Matter Four: We are not in need of integrating the factions at present because integration includes much risk which serves the enemy. We are not afraid of the dispersion of our factions here and there as long as the strategic goal is one, not more, represented in forcing out the enemy from our country, defeated and losing. Matter Five: Unification of the jihad factions is necessary after the occupier is forced out. Then, we will not oppose any idea that unifies the factions' leadership. On the contrary, we are with that idea and support it, but when the occupier is forced out of our country. Matter Six: As long as there is coordination and cooperation with the jihad factions, there are no fears over the correct and effective progress of jihad against the enemy. We are considered as one leadership as long as the strategic objective is one, represented in forcing the enemy out of our country. (Al-Zawra) As you know, every army needs financial and armament support, what are the sources of your financial and armament support? (Al-Ayyubi) Honorable Brother, you might be surprised if I tell you, while we are in the fifth year of blessed jihad, our basic financial and armament support is from our own sources. (Al-Zawra) Not from countries! (Al-Ayyubi) Not from countries, from our own sources and a small part of the financial support is from the contributions of our f aithful and honest brothers and sisters. The financial and armament requirements for an army including thousands of mujahidin is not easy, For that reason, every mujahid in our Army has dedicated all its properties to maintain the jihad so as not to stretch our hands to suspect financial or arming support sources, which are widespread in the arena, now and before. We directed the major part of support to ensure the requirements of fighting such as weapons, ammunition, apparatuses and equipment and not to ensure personal requirements, because abstention in this mortal world and satisfaction with little things, seeking to obtain what the Respectable and Honorable has, is one of the basics of our Order. This is in addition to the capabilities of our brave mujahidin in perpetuating, preparing, manufacturing and developing different types of weapons, ammunition, apparatuses, bullets and explosives relying on our many self-experiences, technical skills and available resources. (Al-Zawra) What if support is offered to you? (Al-Ayyubi) Surely, any legal and unconditioned financial or armament support provided that the support is legal and unconditional. We are in need of this due to the constant increase in the size of our Army. Praise be to God. (Al-Zawra) Certain factions - resistance factions - participated in the political process, what is your point of view concerning the political process currently taking place in Iraq? (Al-Ayyubi) We are an Islamic Jihadist Army that resorts to legal constants, which the nation of Islam unanimously agreed on. We consider the ongoing political process or that which will take place under occupation as invalid both lawfully and legitimately because it was built on a void foundation and took place under the spears of the unbelieving occupier and its apostate tails. (Al-Zawra) Then on this basis are you prepared to negotiate with the occupation forces or with the present government? What are your conditions? (Al-Ayyubi) We are not negotiators and we have no ambitions to negotiate with the occupying enemy or its tails while the enemy is still in our country. We want to force out the enemy subservient and humiliated. After the enemy is forced out and if it is useful to negotiate with it, then we will see what we might do. (Al-Zawra) Some satellite channels and websites posted a statement pointing out that nine resistance factions, including your Army (The Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order) have agreed to establish an office called the "Coordination Office for Iraqi Islamic Resistance" to coordinate and unify points of view? What is your response? (Al-Ayyubi) We absolutely do not have any connection with this Coordination Office. We do not know about its establishment, it was not attended by any representative on our behalf nor did we authorize anybody to talk in our name or on our behalf. We issued a statement and posted it on several websites, including our website in which we categorically denied that. I will go back again to a question you asked earlier on unifying the factions. We reject unification, which means integration of the factions and melting them into one army and under one command, because it carries negative implications in the current circumstances, which I mentioned above. But we do not object if unifying the factions means keeping the armies as they are, ie. not merging one army into another, and providing that a joint leadership is formed derived from two armies or more, having the structure of a Shura Council and based on common declared constants of one direction. We have declared constants, which I mentioned to you and that we have mentioned in previous statements. We call on our brothers in all factions to become acquainted with our constants. If any of them wants to work according to these constants and coordinate with us, let them communicate with us; we are willing for that, God willing. We believe that this approach toward u nity is the one that serves under the current circumstances, but only God knows. (Al-Zawra) Any last remark you want to direct to the Iraqi people? (Al-Ayyubi) Yes, we are Muslims and will follow the right path of the dear Al-Mustafa (Prophet Muhammad), peace and prayer be upon him, whom God sent as a herald and forerunner. Therefore, we bring good news to our brothers, to the brave mujahidin in all factions, to all the honest and patient Iraqis, and to all the honest people of our Arab and Islamic nation that the happy outcome is imminent and victory is inevitable, and that it will be sooner rather than later, and its signs have just started to appear. I would also say that your brothers the mujahidin of the Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order are thousands, and comprise large armies with sophisticated fighting capabilities at the level of training, armament, preparedness and categorizing, a matter that pleases and relieves every faithful and friend and bothers every enemy, grudWe, too, would like to advise everyone involved in the political process or has the intention to become involved, not to lose his life's opportunity and abandon the virtue of jihad for God's sake under this illusive pretext (the political process). This is because the political process will increase the arrogance and vain-glory of the enemy. What is appropriate now is to use the jihadist fighting process and not the political process, because politics with the presence of an occupier on our land is nothing but submission, subjugation and humiliation. Therefore, the political process will waste our legitimate rights. What has been taken by force from us can only be restored by the sword. What a generous man who said: The sword is more truthful than books in separating between solemnity and fun. The unbeliever occupier considers us weak if it finds us gentle and easy politicians, and will respect, fear and be afraid of us if it finds us serious in fighting and insisting on forcing it out of our country by coercion. Finally, we call on our Arab and Muslim brothers who show concern for us, and all the honest and fair people of the world not to look at the enemy with respect, but to look at it with scorn, because it lied to its people and our people and all the peoples of the world with its glittering and fake allegations and lies. For this reason, we appeal to all not to believe or trust it. We your brothers in Iraq and in every occupied country are determined and insist on forcing out the unbelieving enemy and not to become involved in any political process until the last occupying soldier gets out of our land. Peace and prayers be upon our Prophet Muhammad and upon all of his family and companions (Al-Zawra) At the end of this interview, we would like to extend our thanks to His Eminence Dr. Salah al-Din al-Ayyubi, official spokesperson of the Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order, for giving this opportunity to the Iraqi Satellite Channel Al-Zawra. Thank you Dr. and God bless you. Tuesday 19 Jamad Al-Awal 1428, corresponding to 5 June 2007

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Ban Ki-moon: Surge Failing
Diyala Bridge Blown Up
Mashhadani not going Quietly

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in his quarterly report on Iraq that the "surge" in Iraq is failing. The file of the original document can be found via this page. Ban writes,

' 3. Despite the initial success of stepped-up security measures in recent months, the situation in Iraq remains precarious. Insurgent attacks persist and civilian casualties continue to mount. While there was a brief lull in the level of sectarian violence early in the reporting period, it now appears that militia forces are resuming their activities, including targeted killings and kidnappings. The threat that the violence poses to the political process was illustrated by the bombing in the Iraqi Parliament on 12 April that resulted in the death of one lawmaker and injured several others. The Council of Representatives met in an extraordinary session the following day to condemn the attack and show its defiance. South of Baghdad, rising political tension in Basra and Qadissiya provinces resulted in an escalation of violence in those governorates. The Government of Iraq continued to engage leaders from across the political and religious spectrum to promote its national reconciliation plan. The efforts of the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, to reconcile demands within his governing coalition were further challenged by the withdrawal of support by key allies in his Government. . . 33. Despite growing awareness and concern regarding the humanitarian crisis in Iraq, the situation deteriorated steadily during the reporting period. The violence has resulted in a protection crisis which dominates discussions related to a humanitarian response. For every death reported in the news, six family members on average are left without a breadwinner. The rising number of displaced persons is also a cause for concern. UNHCR estimates that displacement has continued at an undiminished pace and over 800,000 Iraqis have been internally displaced since the Samarra mosque bombing in February 2006, while 30,000 to 50,000 flee to neighbouring countries each month. 34. The violence is also having a major impact on Iraqi children and their ability to attend school. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Central S/2007/330 07-36438 9 Organization for Statistics and Information Technology of the Ministry of Planning and Cooperation Development and the Kurdish Regional Statistics Office recently published a preliminary report of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey which estimated that 17 per cent of primary school-age children were not attending school in 2005 and 2006. This translates into approximately 765,000 children, of whom 61 per cent were girls, even before the recent escalation in the numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons. Dropout rates are also increasingly outstripping school participation. Only 34 per cent of girls and 43 per cent of boys of secondary school age were attending secondary school in 2005 and 2006. . . 46. The security situation in Iraq remains complex and unpredictable and is a major limiting factor for the United Nations presence and activities in Iraq. The major development in the reporting period was the increased threat of indirect fire into the International Zone. These attacks have become increasingly concentrated and accurate and often consist of multiple mortars and rockets landing within minutes of each other. The International Zone experienced 17 attacks in March, 30 in April and 39 by 22 May alone. Since 19 February, indirect fire attacks have reportedly resulted in the deaths of 26 people in the International Zone. The security situation has been further compounded by the increase in car bombs in the vicinity of entry checkpoints to the International Zone. Armed groups operating in Baghdad have demonstrated their ability to strike at well-protected, strategic targets, such as the suicide bombing inside the Parliament building on 12 April. . . 60. Iraq’s political and social fabric continued to come under considerable strain during the reporting period as a result of ongoing political, sectarian and criminal violence. Despite the efforts of the Iraqi and multinational security forces to stem violence, progress was slower than had been hoped when security initiatives were launched at the start of 2007. This has been demonstrated by continued attacks on the civilian population, physical infrastructure and political institutions such as the Council of Representatives. . . 62. The Sharm el-Sheikh meetings demonstrated that the international community, while recognizing the complexities of the situation, is willing to work together in solidarity with Iraq. It is now incumbent upon Iraqi leaders to implement the commitments for the benefit of the citizens of Iraq. Given the continued violence, which is testing the country’s unity, additional efforts are needed for confidencebuilding through national dialogue. The United Nations stands ready to support the Government of Iraq in this regard. . . '

Guerrillas blew up another bridge in Iraq on Monday, this time over the Diyala River in Diyala province. Its destruction will make drivers from northeastern Diyala who want to go to Baghdad take a route through Baquba, among the more violent cities in Iraq. Guerrillas are attempting to cause Iraqi society and government to collapse by hitting the infrastructure, and the bridge demolitions are part of that strategy. Late on Sunday, an overpass leading to a bridge south of Baghdad was destroyed, and 3 American soldiers were killed and 6 wounded.

McClatchy reports that 17 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad on Monday.

Late Sunday, the HQ in Iskandariya (south of Baghdad) of the Iraqi Islamic Party was completely destroyed in a massive blast. This Sunni Arab party has been cooperating with the US and has deputies and ministers in the al-Maliki government.

McClatchy reports that young Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is taking back control of his movement on reemerging after months in hiding. He has replaced 11 ward leaders, 2 of them in Baghdad.

al-Zaman reports in Arabic that deposed Iraqi speaker of the house Mahmud al-Mashhadani is rejecting his dismissal. He says he will resign if the president and the prime minister do, as well. He maintains that he was installed as part of a broader set of agreements that brought Jalal Talabani (president) and Nuri al-Maliki (PM) to power, and that the entire government will have to be renegotiated if he is dismissed. I doubt that argument will gain traction.

But there is a problem in getting a successor for al-Mashhadani. His party, the Iraqi Accord Front, may not have any eligible candidates that are well thought of. One element of his party coalition, the Iraqi Islamic Party, already has a vice presidency, andso won't be given speaker. The speaker might come from the National Iraqi List of Iyad Allawi.

The al-Zaman article notes that the wrangling over this issue could go on a long time, that other legislative initiatives are likely to be neglected in the meantime, and that Bush has pressured parliament not to take a summer recess. The firing of al-Mashhadani is probably therefore th nail in the coffin for getting any of Bush's benchmarks passed this summer.

Sawt al-Iraq says that Kurdish villages along the border with Turkey have been subjected to 90 artillery barrages in recent months. The Turks charge that the villages have given safe haven to PKK extremists that have blown up things inside Turkey.
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Iranian Media on Iraq & the US

The USG Open Source Center translates or paraphrases reports in the Iranian press last week regarding Iran-Iraq relations and the US presence in Iraq.

Iran: Highlights: Iranian Media on Iraqi Developments - - 1- 7 June 2007 Iran -- OSC Summary Friday, June 8, 2007 The following are highlights of Iran-Iraq relations as reported in conservative, reformist, and opposition websites monitored by OSC. Turkish Army Attack Northern Iraq (7 June) -- Thousands of Turkish military personnel entered Iraq, Keyhan reported, citing the Associated Press. According to the report, Turkish security officials said that the goal of this military operation is to pursue an armed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) group. According to the report, two unidentified high-ranking Turkish Security personnel said this operation is "limited" and not the "expanded" attack the Turkish leaders have been talking about in the last few weeks. The Turkish security officers noted that Turkey had earlier asked the local Kurdish government to confront the PKK group, which it holds responsible for several recent terrorist acts inside Turkey (Tehran Keyhan in Persian, conservative daily edited by Hoseyn Shari'atmadari, Leader Khamene'i's representative at the Keyhan Institute where it is published). Ahmadinezhad: Iran 'Prepared' To Help Iraqis (5 June) - - Speaking to foreign guests at a ceremony marking the 18 th anniversary of Imam Khomeyni's death, President Ahmadinezhad said: "The occupiers of Iraq have lost the way, they don't know what to do. They imagine that by accusing others, they can resolve problems, and now, they say 'help us.'" The President added: "We are prepared, for the sake of the Iraqi people, to help. We won't spare any efforts" (Tehran Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) in English -- politically moderate news agency, licensed to the government-created University Jihad). President Denies Iran Interfering in Iraq (5 June) - - In response to a question from a journalist at the ceremony marking the anniversary of Khomeyni's death, President Ahmadinezhad denied Western allegations that Iran is interfering in Iraq's internal affairs, labeling such charges "the most laughable mockery of the past several years." The president criticized the US invasion of Iraq and called for the "occupiers" to leave Iraq (Tehran IRNA in English -- official state-run news agency). Coalition Forces Arrest Four 'Terrorists' With Ties to Iran (5 June) - - Citing statements made by US military officials, Iran Focus reported that Multi-National Forces in Iraq on 5 June arrested four "suspected terrorists" believed to be transferring "weapons and explosively formed penetrators (EFPs)" from Iran to Iraq. Among those detained during the raids in northeast Baghdad was a "suspected terrorist cell leader" associated with the "operational and logistic elements of the secret cell terrorist network" (Internet Iran Focus in English -- an expatriate opposition website posting news, information and editorials). Group Linked With Iran May Be Behind Kidnapping of Brits in Iraq (5 June) - - Citing an unnamed senior US military official, AFP reported that commanders in Iraq suspect that an Iraqi militant cell with links to the [Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps or] IRGC was behind the 29 May abduction of five British contractors in east Baghdad. The official said that investigations pointed to the operation having been carried out by members of the "Khazali network," an Iraqi extremist cell with links to the IRGC's Qods Force (Iran Focus). Iraqi Official on Jaysh al-Mahdi's Influence (3 June) -- According to an Iraqi official, a lack of organization and discipline have helped Iranian military forces to penetrate the Jaysh al-Mahdi, Farda news reported, citing Akhbar al-Khalij. According to the source, British officials know that Jaysh al-Mahdi has different branches and some of them have good relations with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. British officials made these statements after the kidnapping of five British nationals from the Iraqi Ministry of Finance (Fardanews in Persian -- a conservative website generally supportive of the Islamic Regime and mildly critical of the government). Foreign Policy Council Director Urges Continued US-Iran Talks ( 3 June) - - During an interview with the Young Journalists' Club, Seyyed Kamal Kharrazi, Director of Iran's Foreign Policy Strategic Council said: "If America changes its policy, Iran will continue negotiations with (America) regarding Iraq." Kharrazi added: "Of course, the negotiations that were held were not the main talks because in this session the two sides . . . announced their stances about Iraq. But, if the Americans really want to solve Iraq's problems, these talks will continue" (Tehran Hemayat in Persian -- conservative daily close to the Judiciary). Mottaki Urges US to Withdraw From Iraq (3 June) - - In a meeting with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said that Iran and Algeria "regard Iraq's occupation the country's main problem. The new American tactic in Iraq has also failed. An increase in the death toll of the Iraqi people and the US military by three times in the period is a proof to the issue." The Iranian minister stated: "The US has no plan to withdraw from Iraq, an issue which would cause problems on threshold of the presidential polls" (IRNA). Al-Maliki Concerned About Coup d'Etat by Ba`th Officers (3 June) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki expressed concern about a possible coup d'etat by loyal Ba`thist officers, Keyhan reported, citing ISNA who cited Al-Maliki's exclusive interview with CNN. According to the Keyhan report, Al-Maliki said he has to carefully oversee the army's operations as those "faithful" to the former regime could plan a coup d'etat. Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi said "the purge of the paramilitary groups, corrupt and incompetent individuals are necessary." Aghamohammadi Cautiously Optimistic on Talks With US (2 June) - - In an interview with ISNA, the former spokesman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Aghamohammadi, described Iran's talks with the US on Iraq as "talks with the enemy" which is "determined in its enmity either about Iran's nuclear issues or threats and espionage against Iran. Therefore initiating talks in such circumstances was very hard and spectacular." Aghamohammadi added: "While we must be diplomatically optimistic, we must also watch out for political plots. This doesn't mean that we will not follow any possibility that can restore stability to the region" (ISNA). Jannati Urges US Withdrawal from Iraq (1 June) - - During Friday Prayers, Ayatolah Jannati, addressing the US, said "If you claim that you are in Iraq to uphold democracy - which you are lying and speaking out of deception - you should know that the Iraqi people have elected a government; and this democratic government is attempting to administer the country. So, leave Iraq and allow the government, or in other words the people, to run the country. They (the people) need no overlords. Allow them to restore security. If you (Americans) leave, we, and all the others who are interested in Iraq's security, will help and in no time people will breathe in peace" (Tehran Radio-1 - - state-run radio). Shari`atmadari: Today US is 'Our Hostage' in Iraq (1 June) -- In a ceremony commemorating the Kowsar Martyrs Day, the managing director of Keyhan newspaper Hoseyn Shari`atmadari referring to what he said were more than 40 US requests for talks with Iran, said the US knows that Iraqi problems cannot get resolved without Iran and wants to be rescued from this "quagmire," Fars News Agency reported. Shari`atmadari added that the Iraqis, contrary to US wishes, elected a pro-Islamic government which will be a more suitable atmosphere for spreading Imam Khomeyni's ideas. Criticizing those who speak of concessions to and compromise with the US, Shari`atmadari said: "If we wanted to give concessions, we would not have gone through the revolution to start out with" (Tehran Fars News Agency -- conservative news agency sympathetic to traditional clerics).

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Bush uses Sudan, Iran Assets in Iraq US GIs Killed, Trapped in Bridge Rubble;
Al-Mashhadani Dismissed as Speaker;
Clashes, Demonstrations in Sadr City

Remember all that Bush administration bluster against Sudan? Turns out that the CIA is using Sudanese spies against the Iraqi guerrillas. Bush sees no enemies among the oil states, only opportunities to be exploited. Most Americans don't realize that Bush has also de facto deployed Iran-trained Badr Corps fighters against the Sunni Arabs in Iraq, as well. So Iran and Sudan are the great bogeymen in Bush rhetoric, but the pillars of his Iraq policy in reality.

That is why Senator Joe Lieberman's call for aggressive air strikes on Iran are unlikely to eventuate. Bush needs Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council in order to avoid immediate and complete defeat in Iraq, and SIIC is very, very close to Iran. Lieberman doesn't seem to understand, by the way, that Iraqi Shiites would mind the US bombing their coreligionists and would probably massacre the entire British garrison in Basra as well as interdict US fuel convoys to the north from Kuwait and Basra. His irresponsible warmongering would get a lot of US troops killed for no good reason. One only hopes he isn't talking this way primarily for the purposes of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert's rightwing government; he just met with Olmert and: "The two also discussed U.S. policy toward Iraq and the West's capabilities for dealing with the Iranian threat." If Lieberman and Olmert want to start another war, they should please do it themselves and leave American servicemen out of it.

Controversial speaker of the Iraqi parliament Mahmud al-Mashhadani (a Sunni Arab) has been ousted from his post by the combined opposition of Shiite, Kurdish and some Sunni Arab MPs. He has scuffled more than once with other MPs and was accused of using his bodyguards to abuse a Shiite representative from the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). This Arabic report maintains that last week, special police commandos of the Interior Ministry had kidnapped some of al-Mashhadani's bodyguards. The police commandos are mainly Badr Corps, the paramilitary of SIIC. But Ibrahim Jaafari is alleged to have brought some Mahdi Army elements in, as well, late in his tenure. These are loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr. PM Nuri al-Maliki has been conducting personal negotiations with the Mahdi Army to get al-Mashhadani's bodyguards released. So the speaker's bullying of the SIIC MP is rooted in resentment over the kidnapping, and isn't just a sign of him being bad-tempered. You get the sense that a session of the Iraqi parliament is sort of like Tony Soprano's family reunion.

I warned of this scenario in a piece for Salon last August.

Three US troops were announced killed on Sunday. Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that over 100 persons were killed or found dead in bombings, shootings and other violence in Iraq on Sunday.

The Iranian and Turkish militaries are coordinating artillery shelling of PKK Kurdish refuges along their borders with Iraqi Kurdistan. The two governments accuse the PKK (leftist Kurdish Workers Party) and its Iran branch, PEJAK, of blowing up things in their territory. Both Turkey and Iran have substantial Kurdish populations of their own, and they fear separatist sentiments among them lest they be dismembered. Iraqi Kurdistan has given safe harbor to some 5000 PKK guerrillas. Turkish authorities accused the PKK of a recent major bombing in the Turkish capital, Ankara. The US is said to be dismayed by this Turkish-Iranian cooperation. But Bush set the stage for it.

Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr condemned the Turkish shelling of Iraqi Kurdistan on Sunday and threatened retaliation if it continues. Al-Sadr had angered Kurds on Saturday with his call for a postponement of the referendum on oil-rich Kirkuk being added to Kurdistan. He is now attempting to take the edge off by championing them against Turkey. This talk is mostly posturing, since Muqtada does not have forces in the north that could do anything to the Turks. (He has followers among the Iraqi Shiite Turkmen minority, but they are pro-Turkish).

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Muqtada also met late Sunday with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. The two discussed a wide range of political and religious issues. The meeting was said to be intended by Sistani to "reassure" al-Sadr with regard to Sistani. The two have in the past sometimes had bad relations. I'd say that Sistani- al-Sadr cooperation would be just about Bush's worst nightmare in Iraq.

A guerrilla suicide bomber took out a bridge 6 miles from Mahmudiya (half an hour south of Baghdad) on Sunday. There was a US military checkpoint on the bridge that appears to have been hit, killing soldiers and pinning some under rubble:

' Soon the outpost sergeant in charge was organizing a search for his missing men, Smith said. The Armor Group team climbed up with first-aid kits, stretchers and other aid. With the Army's quick reaction force, they struggled to lift concrete shards off the men, pinned along the slope of what was once a roadway . . . Then a shout went up, "Morphine! Morphine!" and a black T-shirt-clad Briton administered painkiller to the freed man. "Another poor fellow looked crushed beneath a concrete slab," said Campbell of Armor Group. During the rescue, U.S. armored vehicles opened up with suppressing fire, possibly having spotted movement in the surrounding countryside, flat and baking in 100-degree-plus temperatures. '

No word, as I write, about the number of casualties. Apparently the bomb took out one lane of a two-lane bridge and the remaining lane has now been opened. It appears to be the way civilians got from Babil province and points south up to Baghdad and vice versa.

According to AP via The Age, a guerrilla using a fuel truck as a bomb blew up the police HQ in Al-Bu Ajil, a town near the city of Tikrit, destroying a building with 40 persons in it and more gathered around it. Early reports put the death toll at 15, with 50 wounded. It is said that some officers trapped in the rubble were calling for help with their cell phones. Unfortunately it appears that the death toll is likely to rise. Tikrit, north of Baghdad, is near the birthplace of Saddam Hussein.

Reuters reports other political violence on Sunday.

Among the major incidents reported by AP (link above) were firefights between US troops and local guerrillas in Shiite Sadr City or East Baghdad that left 5 Iraqis dead and 15 wounded. A big crowd appears to have gathered to protest, and US helicopters dropped warning flares on the demonstrators.

McClatchy reports that 15 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad on Sunday, likely victims of sectarian death squads. A rash of bombings of gas stations hit Baghdad, leaving several persons dead or wounded.

Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson said Sunday that he would pull all US troops out of Iraq and not leave any in the country. His rival, Senator Hilary Clinton, has talked about the desirability of stationing US troops in Iraqi Kurdistan for some time to come. (! See first para. above).
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Paris Hilton & Iraqi Prisoners

American cable news has been fixated on the jailing of socialite Paris Hilton for the past week, on grounds that she twice violated the probation sentence she earlier received for drunk driving. They interrupted coverage of world leaders at the G8. They briefly spliced in Gates's decision not to reappoint Peter Pace as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. A new frenzy broke out with every tiny twist . She was brave, she was weeping, she was mentally fragile. She was released, she was rejailed, she shouted it was unfair and cried, she was undergoing psychiatric evaluation.

Just for a little perspective, we could consider the news from Iraq on Saturday. Incoming mortar fire from guerrillas hit Bucca prison, killing 6 inmates and wounding 50.

The US military is holding 19000 Iraqis, 16000 of them at Bucca. Although most are guerrillas or their helpers, a lot of them were picked up because they were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Once arrested, an inmate often cannot clear himself for months or years. I don't think they have access to attorneys. No one cares if they are depressed. At Abu Ghraib earlier on, some inmates were systematically tortured. It is unlear if all such practices have ceased.

Some Iraqi women have been held in this way. Some were essentially hostages, taken to make them reveal where their husbands or fathers were or to guarantee their good behavior. Their reputations were shot, since Iraqis think Americans are sex fiends and wouldn't trust the virtue of a woman who had been in their custody. The unmarried among them are likely doomed to be spinsters.



American television never mentions that the US has 19000 Iraqis in jail, or that some have been women, or that some are innocent, or how they feel about being in prison.

So is Paris Hilton being given special treatment by our media? We all are, folks.
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Nearly 50 Dead Saturday
US Fires on Baquba Mosque
Muqtada: Postpone Kirkuk Referendum

Police found 24 bodies in Baghdad on Saturday, according to Reuters. 3 soldiers were found shot dead in Kirkuk. A dead policeman was found in the southern Shiite city of Diwaniya. A suicide truck bomber attacked an Iraqi miltiary checkpoint near Iskandariya south of Baghdad, killing 12 soldiers and wounding 30. A US soldier was shot dead in Diyala province. Other major incidents follow. Please note that Iraqis are very touchy about the desecration of religious buildings, and two appear to have been desecrated in as many days.

' BAQUBA - U.S. helicopters fired Hellfire missiles at a Shi'ite mosque in the volatile city of Baquba, north of Baghdad, after troops came under machinegun and rocket-propelled grenade fire from gunmen inside the building, the U.S. military said. It gave no casualty figures. . .

MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed one policeman and wounded two others in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. A mortar round which landed nearby killed one civilian and wounded four others. . . .

BAGHDAD - Two people including a policeman were killed and eight others wounded in a car bomb attack on a police patrol in the al-Shaab neighbourhood in northern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A car bomb exploded near a police patrol in Adhamiya in northern Baghdad, killing two policemen, the U.S. military said in a statement. A third was shot dead immediately after the explosion. . .

BAGHDAD - An armed group blew up the Sunni Fatah-Basha mosque in Bayaa in southern Baghdad on Friday, police said. There were no casualties, but the U.S. military said the mosque suffered substantial damage. . .

Simon Jenkins of the Guardian on 'Iraq's Four-Year Looting Frenzy.' Money quote:

' The tragic fate of the national museum in Baghdad in April 2003 was as if federal troops had invaded New York city, sacked the police and told the criminal community that the Metropolitan was at their disposal. The local tank commander was told specifically not to protect the museum for a full two weeks after the invasion. Even the Nazis protected the Louvre. '

Sawt al-Iraq in Arabic reports that the Sadr movement (Shiite puritan) and the National Dialogue Front (Sunni secular) have both called for a postponement on considering the status of oil-rich Kirkuk. The Kurds insist that Kirkuk province have a referendum on whether to join the Kurdistan Regional Government by the end of this year, 2007. A lot of us are afraid that this will provoke yet another war. The Turkmen minority objects. It is about 800,000 persons strong and about half are Shiites, hence Muqtada al-Sadr's interest. The Arabs in Kirkuk province also mostly object, and hence the NDF's interest.
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Guest Essay: Polk on Iraq

William R. Polk

Fact Sheet on Iraq

What is Iraq: Iraq was created by Great Britain at the end of the First World War from three provinces of the defeated Ottoman Empire. While it is common to think of it as still those three parts – the Kurdish Muslims in the North, the Sunni Muslims in the middle and the Shia Muslims in the South – it has become considerably integrated over the last century so all three communities are intermingled. It is also common to call Iraq “artificial,” and in part that is true, but the same could be said for virtually all countries. What is certain is that it is a small country, not quite two-thirds the size of Texas of which most is barren. Only an area about the size of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined can be farmed by rainfall. Elsewhere, agriculture depends on the rivers – the Euphrates at Baghdad is about the size of the Arkansas River at Little Rock and the Tigris is about as large as the Missouri River at Kansas City. Because of the intense solar radiation, agriculture is difficult to maintain. Thus, until recently, Iraq has always been a poor country. What changed Iraq was oil. Oil was discovered in 1927 and is potentially very abundant but as yet is largely undeveloped; such developed facilities as exist have been severely damaged. It was oil, however, that paid for Iraq in the 1980s to become one of the most advanced countries of the Middle East. While he was a brutal, aggressive dictator, Saddam Husain used oil revenues to fund public health, education, the building of modern infrastructure and the growth of industry. The population benefited and grew to about 24 million with a high level of education. Today the population is in turmoil with millions of people leaving their homes or even leaving the country, but with about half the population below the age of fifteen, growth will continue to be rapid. What we were told about Iraq: The litany of partial- or mis-information is well known. Iraq did not support terrorism, did not have or even intend to get nuclear weapons, had an antiquated army and air force and could not possibly have been a danger to the United States. It did, however, have an ugly, tyrannical government – like many others in the world – but the United States government worked closely with, and supported, that government for many years during the Reagan and first Bush administration. The first American invasion: Relations between Saddam Husain’s regime and Kuwait (which every Iraqi government since the 1920s regarded as a part of Iraq illegally split off by the British) hinged on loans made to Iraq by Kuwait during the Iraq-Iran war. Kuwait pressed hard for repayment and Saddam was nearly bankrupt. He concluded that Kuwait was attempting to overthrow his government. Arab efforts at mediation failed and the United States told Saddam that it had no position on the disagreement. Rightly or wrongly, Saddam took our statements as a “green light” and attacked Kuwait. The attack was naked aggression and on behalf of the United Nations, the United States (under the first Bush administration) drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait. The U.S. did not attempt to conquer Iraq. President Bush commented: “Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land.” But he and President Clinton imposed upon the country a severe program of sanctions that virtually crippled the economy and severely damaged the society. Sanctions did not, however, accomplish what most people believed to have been their objective, to overthrow the regime. That was done in the second American invasion of 2003. The second American invasion and occupation. In the spring of 2003, American (together with smaller British and other) forces quickly defeated the Iraq army and occupied the country. When the regime collapsed, the U.S. created an occupational government known as the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) headed by an American official. Then, on March 8, 2004, the American-written constitution was approved by the American-appointed and controlled Iraqi Governing Council and selected an interim prime minister. Meanwhile, from April 2003, Iraqis began a major and wide-spread rebellion against the Americans and the American-appointed Iraqi administration. In January 2005, a poll picked members of a new national assembly which was to prepare for elections in December 2005 for a native government to replace the CPA and Iraqi Governing Council. The election, while arguably a step forward, was conducted in an atmosphere that caused it to be charged as an American charade and to make of its results an ethnic poll. The ensuing Iraqi government, still of course dependent on America, was a Shia ethnic coalition with, ironically, close ties to America’s proclaimed adversary, Iran. The insurgency continues and growing in intensity. The cost of this policy to America: During the years April 2003-June 3, 2007, 3,493 servicemen and women have been killed; up to October 2006, the Department of Veterans Affairs has determined that about one in five soldiers has been “at least partially disabled” with over 100,000 granted disability payments and another 100,000 expected to claim them; in December 2005, the U.S. Surgeon General estimated that more than one in three of the half million Marines and soldiers who had as of that date served in Iraq needed mental health treatment; at least 50,000 have suffered concussions that will cause memory loss, headaches and confused thinking for the rest of their lives to such an extent that they will not be able to function well in society and will be a burden on their families and on the public health system; another large number will develop cancer as a result of exposure to an erosol mutation (U3O8) of the depleted uranium used in artillery shells and bombs. Some scientists believe this is the cause of so-called Gulf War Syndrome.) The monetary costs fall into two categories: actual allocations which now are well over $500 billion and are increasing by more than 20% a year: $77.3 billion in 2004, $87.3 billion in 2005 and $101.8 billion in 2006. That is roughly $10 million an hour. But according to Nobel Prize Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and former Assistant Secretary of Commerce Linda Bilmes, the real cost (by standard accounting methods) is between one and two trillion dollars. . Frightening as these figures are, they are based on underestimated costs of imported oil and rehabilitation of returning servicemen and women by perhaps as much as $200 billion. Beyond these costs is the damage to America’s reputation and capacity to exercise leadership in the world community. The cost to Iraq: Almost certainly, at least 600,000 more Iraqis have died than would have died without the war; about two million have fled the country; more than half a million have stayed inside Iraq but have lost houses, jobs, schools and neighbors; property damage has not been determined but surely runs into the hundreds of billions of dollars. In sum, Iraqi society has been destroyed. What these costs have bought: No well informed observer believes that the war in Iraq is approaching success by any definition; indeed, all signs indicate that the situation is deteriorating. That clearly is the opinion of the newly appointed “war czar,” Lt. General Douglas E. Lute and is widely shared. What the war and occupation have actually accomplished the destruction of the previous balance between social groups so that today Iraq is embroiled in civil war. American options: 1) stay the course. Some military analysts think that if America were willing to put half a million troops into Iraq (roughly three times as many as today), and could implement the sort of counterinsurgency (“COIN”) program advocated by Generals Petraeus and Amos, we could “win.” Comment: The American public is extremely unlikely to approve adding 350,000 troops to the 150,000 now in Iraq; indeed, the polls all point in the opposite direction. The latest New York Times/CBS poll found that 72% thought our policy was “seriously off on the wrong track.” Some of America’s best and most senior generals have given up their careers to speak out on the folly of thinking that more troops will “win.” If not more troops, then using them more effectively? The COIN option that Generals Petraeus and Amos advocate is a technological solution to a political problem. Counterinsurgency has a 12-0 record of failure in modern insurgencies. As the Baker-Hamilton study argued, the war is stretching America beyond our capacity. Moreover, to shield the public from the harm to our economy, we have engaged in borrowing vast amounts from foreign (mainly Chinese) lenders who watch as the dollar falls vis-à-vis the Euro from $0.80=€1 to $1.35=€1). Lenders have lost about one-third of their outlay and, presumably, sooner or later will stop lending or even call their notes. 2) stay at least until there is “stability.” Comment: In a recently completed analytical history of a dozen insurgencies (Violent Politics: Insurgency, Guerrilla Warfare and Terrorism, New York: HarperCollins, to e published September 15, 2007), I have shown that stability has never been achieved before the foreign forces have evacuated the insurgent country. As long as they stay, the natives continue fighting. This is true despite tactical successes that wipe out large numbers of the insurgents. The record is absolutely clear: it does not work. 3) encourage or at least allow Iraq to break into three pieces so that, presumably, the civil war would end and then we could get out. Comment: If Iraq were allowed or encouraged to break up, we would have created a new “Balkans” in the heart of the Middle East. Almost certainly, Turkey would xtend its current (June 6, 2007) military incursions into Kurdistan and probably cause a major war; Iran would probably not invade the south but would enormously increase its influence there, and also down the oil-rich Gulf. Internally, millions more people would have to be relocated with profound effects on the economy. If America were judged to have created this tragedy, it is almost certain that America’s critics and enemies would use it to damage American interests throughout the world. 4) simply get out regardless of what happens (opponents call this “cut and run”). Comment: Despite the opinion of the Secretary of Defense and others who advocate “a long and enduring presence” in Iraq, America will eventually have to get out. So the questions are when and under what circumstances. When the Nixon administration determined to get out of Vietnam, it sought to avoid the opprobrium of “cut and run” by leaving slowly and using the South Vietnam government as a “cut-out.” That policy cost an additional 21,000 American casualties and, at the end, the American withdrawal was a humiliation. Obviously, America should seek both to avoid more casualties, wasted money, and humiliation. 5) the Baker-Hamilton study set out what we wish would happen -- to withdraw in a statesmanlike manner on our own schedule without serious damage. Comment: Baker-Hamilton did not offer a plan on how to accomplish the objectives it set out and was optimistic in the hope that others would help us to control Iraq. Iran and Syria were identified as possible helpers but both governments know, from our published National Security Doctrine, that the U.S. government has openly considered, placed forces at the ready, and may still be considering attacking them. They would be foolish to help us. Moreover, they probably lack the capacity: we want Syria to do on its frontier with Iraq what we are unable to do on ours with Mexico, seal it against intruders, and it is highly unlikely that Iran could get the Shia government of Iraq to do what that government thinks harms its interests or imperils its survival. These are naïve hopes, not a policy. 6) together with former Senator George McGovern, I have laid out a carefully constructed, fully costed, and mutually reinforcing plan to accomplish essentially what Baker-Hamilton advocated. Comment: The plan laid out below would cost $12-14 billion to implement and would save at least $350 billion of what staying in Iraq an additional two years would cost. More important, given the rate at which casualties are increasing, it would probably save the lives of 2,000-3,000 thousand young Americans and the bodies and minds of scores of thousands of others. It would reverse the downward spiral of America’s prestige and would begin a new opportunity for improving American security, particularly in Islamic Asia and Africa. Recommendation: This is the only completely articulated plan now in existence. Undoubtedly, it is not perfect; no plan is; but it is feasible, cost-saving and will end the war in a way acceptable to the American public, our allies and the Iraqis. The way the plan would work is spelled out in Chapter 5 of George McGovern and William R. Polk, Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006). The following is a summary of the costs involved in implementing the McGovern-Polk Plan: 1) Two-year expense for a multinational stabilization force to replace American troops: $6 billion or roughly 2% of the cost of the American occupation. 2) Partial support for creation, training and equipping of an effective national police force: $1 billion. 3) Conversion of the program now being implemented to create a new Iraqi army into the creation of much more useful and less dangerous organization patterned on the U.S. Corps of Engineers. $2.2 billion is already allocated for the army; probably the conversion could be effected by about a quarter of this cost. Some of the current outlay may be recoverable; if none can be recovered, the new costs would be on the order of $500 million. 4) Ceasing work on and closing the fourteen “enduring bases,” some of which are the size of small cities. No additional costs anticipated. 5) Finding, digging up and destroying land mines and unexploded ordnance. The first step is a comprehensive survey for which we believe the United States should contribute $250 million. Only then can an estimate of costs for the overall clean-up be made. 6) American assistance in rebuilding damaged or destroyed property: we advocate the grant of $1 billion to survey the damage and plan ways that reconstruction can be carried out and financed. This is primarily an Iraqi task and undertaking it will help to overcome the socially destructive high rates (upwards of 50%) of unemployment. 7) Dismantling blast walls, wire barriers, etc. Most will be done by Iraqi but we advocate a grant of $500 million to jump-start the effort. 8) Restoring what can be saved of World Heritage sites destroyed by American action. We advocate a contribution to this effort of $250 million. 9) “Condolence payments”/compensation for unjustified deaths/wounds, at $10,000/person, for an estimated 70,000 people: $700 million. 10) Creation of a training program for social workers, judges, journalists at western institutions: $500 million. 11) Assistance to Iraqi émigrés to return to assist in rebuilding Iraqi society: 10,000 people at $50,000 for heads of families: $500 million. 12) Rebuilding Iraqi public health service: training, equipment, etc. $1.7 billion. Conclusion: Our plan is not a panacea. There is no simple and quick way to restore the damage that has been done to America, to Iraq or to America’s reputation, but the above mentioned steps would constitute a major step on the road to recovery both of Iraq and America. They are feasible and would actually save both lives and money. William R. Polk

William R. Polk is senior director of the W.P. Carey Foundation. A graduate of Harvard and Oxford, he taught Middle Eastern politics and history and the Arabic language at Harvard University until President Kennedy appointed him a Member of the Policy Planning Council of the U.S. Department of State. He was in charge of planning American policy for most of the Islamic world until 1965 when he became professor of history at the University of Chicago and founded its Middle Eastern Studies Center. Later he also became president of the Adlai Stevenson Institute of International Affairs. Among his many books are The United States and the Arab World; The Elusive Peace: The Middle East in the Twentieth Century; Neighbors and Strangers: The Fundamentals of Foreign Affairs; Polk’s Folly, An American Family History; and William R. Polk is senior director of the W.P. Carey Foundation. A graduate of Harvard and Oxford, he taught Middle Eastern politics and history and the Arabic language at Harvard University until President Kennedy appointed him a Member of the Policy Planning Council of the U.S. Department of State. He was in charge of planning American policy for most of the Islamic world until 1965 when he became professor of history at the University of Chicago and founded its Middle Eastern Studies Center. Later he also became president of the Adlai Stevenson Institute of International Affairs. Among his many books are The United States and the Arab World; The Elusive Peace: The Middle East in the Twentieth Century; Neighbors and Strangers: The Fundamentals of Foreign Affairs; and Polk’s Folly, An American Family History; and Understanding Iraq: The Whole Sweep of Iraqi History, from Genghis Khan's Mongols to the Ottoman Turks to the British Mandate to the American Occupation (HarperPerennial, 2004).
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More than 80 Killed
Pace not Reappointed

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will not seek the reappointment of Gen. Peter Pace as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. Gates appears to have feared that Pace's long involvement in the Iraq War and his relatively subservient attitude to former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld would turn his reconfirmation hearing into a circus.

McClatchy reviews all the ways the "surge" is failing in its objectives. And then they are surprised when Sec. of Defense Gates doesn't invite them along to fly with him!

The killing of another US GI was announced by the US on Saturday.

Political violence in Iraq left more that 80 persons dead on Thursday night through Friday.

A suicide bombing hit a Shiite Turkmen mosque in the north near Kirkuk, leaving a trail of mayhem. (19 killed, 20 wounded)

Another major bomb was set off in al-Qurna down near Basra. (16 killed, 22 wounded).

And in Baquba, guerrillas stormed the home of a police chief, killed 14 guards and family members, and took 3 sons captive.

McClatchy reports other violence, including mortar attacks on the Iraq capital.

The oil workers' potentially crippling strike in Iraq has been put on hold during a five-day cooling off an negotiating period.

The US focus on al-Qaeda in Iraq is overblown.

Mitt Romney thinks that Iraq refused to admit weapons inspectors before the 2003 War.

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US Troop Death Toll more than 3500
British Toll at 150
Immigration Law Defeated by Iraq War (!);
Muqtada Blames US, Rejects Iranian Influence

On Thursday US military spokesmen announced that Iraqi guerrillas had killed another US GI, bringing the troop death toll over 3500.

A British soldier was also killed, and three wounded, by a roadside bomb in Basra, bringing the death toll for UK troops to 150 and prompting impassioned calls for a withdrawal of British troops from southern Iraq.

There were major car bombings in Sadr City, Rabia (Syrian border) and Ramadi that left dozens wounded and killed. Shiite militiamen attacked Sunni mosques in the Bayaa district of Baghdad, Sunni sources said.

John Edwards disputed the notion that the US is safer since 9/11. He pointed out that Iraq has become a recruiting ground for a new generation of anti-American terrorists and that the US is less able to depend on some allies in the past because of the way Bush has alienated him. The press is saying that this is a shot across the bow of Hilary Clinton, who said in Sunday's debate that we are safer than before 9/11 but not yet safe enough.

Edwards also shot back at Mayor Rudi Giuliani on the issue of the propaganda uses to which Bush has put September 11 and 'the war on terror', which Edwards calls a 'bumper sticker.' He accused Giuliani of wanting to be a George W. Bush clone and predicted that it was a losing strategy.

A majority of Americans rejects the idea that the Iraq War, at least, has made us safer. 51% say it has not. Some 44% think it has, amazingly enough. I suspect this is just Dems and Independents versus Republicans. Anyway, I don't think Senator Clinton was saying the Iraq War has made us safer (that isn't my implication); she was probably thinking of the increased FBI/CIA coopeeration, etc.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Thursday that the US goal in Iraq should not be a Korea-style 50,000-man military presence for 50 years. He said the US should turn security quickly over to Iraqis and withdraw to other bases in the region (presumably Kuwait and Qatar). His understanding that the people of Iraq and of the Arab world just won't put up with such a big, long-term US military presence is praiseworthy. In fact, correct me if I am wrong but this is one of the few references any leading presidential candidate from either party has made to the aspirations and feelings of the people of Iraq and of the region! (I know Denis Kucinich and maybe Ron Paul have done so. I was dismayed on Sunday night, however, when Senator Clinton tried to blame the Iraqis for the current quagmire. If someone invaded the US, dissolved the US army, fired all the capable government bureaucrats, instituted ethnic quota hiring, rounded up thousands of people and tortured them, etc., the people of the US might not respond calmly, either.) Romney's critics complain, however, that he still hasn't said when exactly the US presence would be wound down. If it isn't 50 years, is it 20? 10?

The New, Improved Tomdispatch.com weighs in on "How permanent are those bases?. Congrats to Tom Engelhardt on the site redesign.

Republican Senators Sam Brownback and Gordon Smith signed on Thursday to Shiite cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's plans for a Shiite regional confederacy in southern Iraq, along with a Sunni Arab regional confederacy that the Sunni Arabs all reject to a man. Why these Republicans want to deliver southern Iraq and its oil to a Shiite confederacy that will inevitably be an Iranian sphere of influence is not entirely clear. This plan will not, by the way, stop the fighting or bombings. It is rejected not only by virtually all Sunni Arabs but also by the Sadr Movement among the Shiites, as well as the Islamic Virtue Party of Basra. Nor does the US actually have any mechanism for implementing it, since the decision would be that of the Iraqi parliament (I doubt it could pass there).

But the Bush administration doesn't want this soft partition of Iraq, so the defection to the al-Hakim plan is a further sign of insubordination in the ranks. Most commentators won't notice, but it is Bush's Iraq War that so weakened his influence with Republic senators and representatives that he was unable to get his immigration reform law passed.

The Republican candidates are way behind the Dems in internet popularity so far. Imagine losing a race because you did not have enough Facebook friends.

Young Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr gave an interview on Iraqi state television Thursday in which he condemned the al-Maliki government that his group helped to bring to power as "neglectful" and "sectarian," and said Iraq's current problems derive from the US. He also proposed a political coalition of Iraqi opponents of the Salafi Jihadis or violent Sunni revivalists, who declare Shiites and secularists "non-Muslims" (such excommunication is called Takfir). An anti-takfiri alliance of Iraqi Shiites and moderate Sunnis and secularists might be politically important. He also pledged never to negotiate directly with the US, and rejected Iranian influence in Iraq. He also warned Arab states that they had better help Iraq, or its instability would spread to them.

This Reuters article admits that a big Turkish incursion into northern Iraq would be a major headache for the United States. The tenor of the analysts consulted (why do they not call any universities, only Washington think tanks?) is, however, that a big such incursion is unlikely (unless there is a substantial provocation from the PKK). The problem with this overly optimistic point of view is that the 5,000 PKK fighters given asylum in Iraqi Kurdistan are already a huge provocation for the generals in Turkey. And, they don't seem to remember that the PKK recently set off a big bomb in Ankara, the Turkish capital, that injured 60 people and killed 6. If some group based in Cuba had done that to Washington DC, I don't think the Washington power elite would exercise any restraint in the reply. Why do they expect the Turkish Pashas to be more mature than they are?

Police found 32 bodies in Baghdad on Thursday, according to Reuters; bodies were found in the northern city of Mosul, 2 bodies in Mahmudiya, and 5 in Falluja. 4 bodies were found in Kut, a Port Authority official and his sons. Other major incidents:

' BAGHDAD - At least five people were killed and 15 wounded when a car bomb exploded near a restaurant in the Shi'ite Sadr City district of Baghdad, police said. . .
SAMARRA - Five people, including a policeman, were killed and nine wounded in different incidents around Samarra, 100 km (62 miles) north of Baghdad . . .

NEAR RAMADI - At least six people were wounded, including one policeman, in an attempted attack by a suicide truck bomber on a police checkpoint near Ramadi, west of Baghdad, police said. Police opened fire and blew up the truck before it reached its target . . .

MOSUL - A suicide truck bomber killed nine people and wounded 22, including five British civilian contractors, in an attack on the police headquarters in Rabea, a town near the Syrian border, police said. . .

MOSUL - A female journalist working with the independent Aswat al-Iraq news agency in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was killed by gunmen, the agency said. . . '

McClatchy adds, "Around 5 pm, two car bombs exploded in Abu Ghraib ( west of Baghdad) targeting an army check point killing five ( three of them are soldiers )and injuring 12 ( 6 of them are soldiers) while the rest are civilians." And, there was this: " Wednesday evening , a roadside bomb exploded in the downtown of Kirkuk city near the fire brigade department targeting a police patrol killing one policeman and injuring three others."

In an "Oh, no!" moment, I thought I was done with the mayhem when I saw this at WaPo:

' Gunmen also shot three professors from Islamic University in Baghdad, killing two and wounding one, and killed the head of the Education Ministry's department of research and development as he drove to work, police said. "It is part of the campaign to attack every positive thing in Iraq," said an Education Ministry spokesman, Basil al-Khatib, who blamed the attacks on extremists who oppose modernity and want to drive "all elite and educated people from Iraq." He complained that the national government "is not acting" to prevent further attacks against teachers, "it only talks." '

Then there was this: ' The U.S. military also reported a major airstrike and ground attack Tuesday that killed 19 insurgents sheltered in a house near Baqubah, about 25 miles northeast of the capital . . .' Which made me think back to this.

Salafi Jihadis are stepping up their attacks on Iraqi Christians.
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The Eighth Front

According to Turkish sources, hundreds of Turkish troops crossed into Iraqi Kurdistan on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in hot pursuit of Kurdish terrorists. There was some skepticism about whether this incident actually occurred, and it was both affirmed and denied by various Turkish sources in the course of the day. MSNBC showed footage of the incursion, but I don't know if that was stock footage or if it showed today's events accurately (shouldn't they label these things?). A US military spokesman in Baghdad could not confirm the border incursion but said "we are very concerned." As well he should be.

A hot eighth front may have just opened up in the kaleidoscopic Iraq War, which appears to be gradually fulfilling its potential for unravelling the entire Middle East as it was constituted by the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 in the aftermath of WW I.

How many fronts are there in the Iraq War? The Sunni Arab guerrillas of the center, west and north are themselves fighting a four-front war. They are fighting US troops. They are fighting Shiites. They are fighting Kurds in the Kirkuk region and Ninevah and Diyala provinces. And they are fighting other Sunni Arab forces (Baathists fight Salafi fundamentalists, and both fight tribal levies gravitating to the Americans).

Then there is a muted Shiite front with two dimensions. Radical Shiites attack US forces. And, in Basra, Diwaniya and elsewhere, there is Shiite on Shiite violence as the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (often infiltrated into the Iraqi police) fights the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr.

So that makes 6-- four Sunni Arab fronts and 2 Shiite fronts.

Then there are the Kurds. Of course they are fighting the Sunni Arabs. But they have also given haven to two terrorist groups. One is the PKK, or Kurdish Worker's Party, which operates in Turkey's eastern Anatolia, blowing things up and killing people. Some 5,000 PKK fighters are holed up in Iraqi Kurdistan, to the rage of the Turkish government in Ankara. The other is PEJAK, an Iranian-Kurdish terrorist group that launches attacks in Iran. Both Iran and Turkey have lobbed mortars and artillery shells over the border into villages of Iraqi Kurdistan as a way of lodging a complaint and making a threat against these Kurdish forces.

So in addition to the Arab-Kurdish front already counted, that makes 2 more fronts, for a grand total of 8. Not all 8 are very active at all times. But all 8 do break out into substantial violence from time to time. And we may have just seen a flare-up in no. 8.

By the way, why does the Bush administration allow its Kurdistan allies to harbor PKK terrorists? I thought that sort of thing was a no-no in the age of the war on terror? Wasn't it even the casus belli for Bush's two big invasions? Or is it all right to do terrorism to Turkey and Iran, but not to the US and Britain? I'm confused.

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Bombs Rip Kadhimiya;
4 US GIs Killed;
Sunni Guerrillas Announce Truce with Each Other

Two coordinated car bombs hit the Shiite Kadhimiya district of north Baghdad on Wednesday. A third bomb was found and disarmed before it could go off. The explosions killed 7 and wounded 27. They took place uncomfortably close to the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kadhim, the 7th Imam or divinely- inspired descendant of the Prophet Muhammad according to the Shiites. We have already seen, with the golden dome in Samarra, how much carnage the bombing of a major shrine can kick off. I just hope someone has put extra security around the shrine in Kadhimiya. Otherwise Front 2 (see above) will get hot. For the combination of Mafia, militia and clerical governance of Kadhimiya, which is in the Sunni area west of the Tigris, is described in detail by the intrepid Ed Wong and Damien Cave of the NYT.

There were other bombings and assassinations on Wednesday, according to Reuters. McClatchy says that police found 34 corpses in the streets of Baghdad on Wednesday.

Al-Zaman [The Times of Baghdad] reports in Arabic that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is accusing the Arab capitals of supporting a revolution against him.

McClatchy also reports on the Great Barber Massacre in Basra and environs, where 9 barbers have been assassinated since Sunday. Barbers in Iraq have attracted the ire of Muslim fundamentalists, who maintain that believing men must wear beards and that a morals police should enforce this divine decree. (In fact, the Qur'an prescribes no set appearance for men.)

The US military announced Wednesday that Iraqi guerrillas had killed 4 US GIs. 2 were killed in Diyala and one in Beiji north of Baghdad, all three by Sunni Arabs. The fourth was hit by a roadside bomb in Shiite Sadr City, so a radical faction of the Mahdi Army may be responsible there.

Two Salafi Sunni Arab groups, the Army of Islam and the Islamic State of Iraq, have been feuding and clashing in recent weeks, much to the delight of the US. They announced on Wednesday, however, that they had concluded a formal truce among themselves. This rapprochement suggests how dangerous it is for the US to depend on Sunni Arabs fighting each other; their faction-fighting is often temporary and does not amount to all that much.

Iraqi oil workers in the southern port city of Basra have gone on strike to protest provisions in the petroleum bill before parliament that may encourage the privatization of the state-owned Iraqi petroleum company and may give too much power and concessions away to Western Big Oil. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sent the Iraqi military in to arrest striking oil workers. Al-Maliki has not deployed the army effectively against armed guerrillas. But against unarmed oil workers? Sure!

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Hubert Humphreys of the Right
Wrong Information Given out in New Hampshire

Rudy Giuliani maintained during the Republican debate that "It's unthinkable to leave Saddam Hussein in charge of Iraq and be able to fight the war on terror."

If he means by "war on terror" the counter-terrorism struggle against al-Qaeda and kindred groups, then it was in fact unthinkable successfully to fight them and also invade Iraq. The US occupation of a major Muslim Arab country has reinvigorated al-Qaeda. It has drawn major resources away from counter-terrorism. It has delivered millions of Iraqis into a maelstrom of terrorism. There was never any operational cooperation between al-Qaeda and Saddam.

McCain said, ""When Senator Clinton says this is Mr. Bush's war, that this is President Bush's war -- when President Clinton was in power, I didn't say that Bosnia, our intervention there was President Clinton's war . . . When we intervened in Kosovo, I didn't say it was President Clinton's war."

But the situations are not the same. Clinton did not mislead us into those conflicts. They were, moreover, limited in scope and fit the Powell doctrine. After enormous numbers of lies and misstatements, after deviousness and the outing of an undercover CIA operative, after over four years of ineptitude and pigheadedness, this is Bush's war. It isn't mine, and I resent McCain trying to make it mine. He can have the miserable thing if he wants it. I fear he will find that some albatrosses make it hard to keep your head above the water.

Romney blasted Democratic Senate Majority leader Harry Reid for allegedly having said that "the war in Iraq is lost." He added, "Harry Reid was wrong. We did not lose the war in Iraq. And that's not the sort of thing you say when you have men and women in harm's way."

Romney has not the slightest idea what is going on in Iraq.

Gen. Rick Sanchez, in contrast was a commanding officer in that theater. He admits that the US cannot win in Iraq. The best it can hope for, if it does all the right things politically and economically, is a stalemate. If you don't win, you lose. And, by the way, Reid had said exactly the same thing, that military victory is impossible and that only a political settlement has any chance of success.

On Iraq, the leading Republicans don't have a clue, and don't seem to realize that they are making themselves Hubert Humphrey electorally. (Ron Paul gets it on Iraq, but he is not a contender.)

The Karl Rove doctrine that when you dig yourself into a ditch, the best strategy is to dig deeper, has finally met the test of reality-based politics. It isn't going to be pretty.

These guys got away with these hawkish fantasies because they bamboozled the poor evangelicals into believing they would support public morality, and bamboozled poor conservatives into thinking they would uphold small government. Instead, they are hitching their wagons to a multi-trillion dollar quagmire abroad and don't give a rat's ass about evangelical values.

They will lose because their base is disheartened. They will lose because even their base hates this Iraq stuff. They will lose because their base will stay home in droves.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Parliament Demands Say in Extension of US Mandate
Bombing Kills over 2 Dozen in Amiriya
Al-Maliki said to be Isolated, Ineffective

The Iraqi parliament passed a resolution on Tuesday demanding that parliament be consulted before the al-Maliki government asks the UN to extend the US military mandate in Iraq. That issue will arise at the end of 2007. The move was spearheaded by the Sadrist bloc of young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which has 32 seats in parliament. It was joined by the Shiite Islamic Virtue Party based in Basra (15 seats) and by the Sunni Arab parties. The 275-member parliament barely had a quorum, of 144, and the measure passed 85 to 59. Since Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's allies voted against it, this resolution could actually be seen as a vote of no confidence for al-Maliki (see below), though it won't cause his government to fall unless the three blocs decide to attempt to bring him down. I have been saying for the past several months that I wonder if al-Maliki could survive a vote of no confidence, and this resolution helps answer the question. (The answer is, "no.")

As I read this article, the resolution is not in itself a demand for an immediate departure of US troops. It is simply a demand that the executive consult the legislature at that point where their presence is to be reauthorized.

A suicide bomber struck a market in the small Sunni Arab town of Amiriya, just west of Baghdad, on Tuesday, killing 25 and wounding 52 [according to al-Zaman in Arabic]. The incident was Sunni Arab on Sunni Arab violence, with radical Salafis attacking the Al-Bu `Isa tribe that has recently stood up to them.

33 bodies were found in Baghdad, 8 in Baquba, and 2 in Iskandariya on Monday. That is at least 43 bodies alone, not to mention the dozens freshly killed. There were bombings and shootings all around the country, with one US GI killed. McClatchy adds that "3 Iraqi soldier[s] were killed and 2 wounded in an IED explosion targeted their patrol in AL Mail neighborhood south west Baghdad around 5,30.pm." The wire service adds, "Insurgents exploded one of the oil pipelines which links the field of Kirkuk and Biji refinery west of Kirkuk city early morning."

The US military is bombing Iraq at twice the rate it did in 2006. The rate of innocent civilian casualties of such bombings is also skyrocketing. I think it is contrary to the Hague Regulations and the Geneva Conventions for an occupying power to bomb the cities it occupies.

The LA times does a fine piece on the internal dynamics of the top Iraqi leadership. The central figures in the piece include Nuri al-Maliki, the Shiite prime minister, who is depicted as increasingly isolated and surrounded by loyalists from his Islamic Call [Da`wa] Party. The other protagonist is Sunni Arab vice president Tariq al-Hashimi, the highest-ranking Sunni Arab figure in Iraq despite his relative powerlessness. He is depicted as unable to get the time of day from al-Maliki and as outraged at Shiite gossip that his coalition, the Iraqi Accord Front, is mixed up with the Sunni guerrillas who are blowing things up. The sources interviewed by Ned Parker among Iraqi politicians evince the gravest doubts that al-Maliki is capable of meeting any of Bush's benchmarks or of passing the petroleum law or the adjustment of de-Baathification regulations (the current procedures disadvantage many Sunni Arabs who had any position in the Baath Party).

When it is remembered that the explicit purpose of the "surge" is to provide al-Maliki with the security and the political space to make political progress in resolving conflicts, this article makes for depressing reading. This piece provides new details and anecdotes of great importance. Kudos!

The UN is now estimating the number of Iraqis forced from their homes by the ongoing Iraq War at 4.2 million. Nearly a million have been displaced in the past year alone. The newly homeless include 15,000 Palestinians, who "have no placed to go." Of course, the Palestinians, who were expelled from their homes by Zionist forces in 1948, have never since then "had any place to go." (Although observers are comparing the displacements in Iraq to those of 1948, proportionally they are nowhere near as severe. The vast majority of Palestinians was rendered homeless in 1948, whereas, as bad as the displacements in Iraq are, they seem to affect about 15% of the population so far). And that is mind-boggling. It is the equivalent of 45 million Americans thrown out of their homes!

Not only is the Iraq War breaking the US army, it is deeply harming the State Department, too. Some 200 postings are unfilled, enormous resources are devoted to Iraq and Afghanistan, and US relations with some 40 countries have become lackadaisical because of a lack of personnel.

Sir Christopher Meyer, the former UK ambassador to the US in the period of 9/11 and through the Iraq War, has called for a US and UK withdrawal from Iraq. He said, "I personally believe that the presence of American and British forces is making things worse, not only in Iraq, but in the wider area around Iraq. The argument against staying for any greater length of time strengthens with every day that passes . . ." and added, "I don't think the situation in Iraq now is worth the life of another single further British or American serviceman . . . I think the Iraqis are in fact sorting themselves out - often bloodily - independent of what we're doing." Meyer has been measured in his comments on Bush, so the vehemence of his feelings on this matter comes as a little bit of a surprise. If he is speaking for the British establishment (and I think he is), relations between London and Washington may be a bit stormy in the coming year.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Libby Sentenced to 30 Months
$250,000 Fine
Thompson tied to Head Leaker

Judge Reggie Walton threw the book at Irv Lewis Libby on Tuesday, sentencing him to 30 months in prison and imposing a $250,000 fine.

Libby, VP Richard Bruce Cheney's chief of staff and national security adviser, was formally charged with obstruction of justice. He has been convicted of lying under oath to the special prosecutor about his role in leaking the identity of undercover CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson to the US press.

Libby was not charged with the leak, which was probably illegal and certainly grossly unethical. Since Valerie was undercover working against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, especially with regard to Iran, in running a deliberate leaking operation against her Libby was essentially functioning as an agent of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

That is, Libby was functioning, for political purposes, in the same way as Robert Hanssen, the FBI agent who betrayed colleagues and assets to the Soviet Union, as portrayed in the film, "Breach."

The same is true for Cheney himself and for Karl Rove, Bush's political adviser. They are all traitors who betrayed an undercover US operative who was attempting to work against the ayatollahs in Tehran.

Since potential Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson is a big defender of Libby, the Red States may as well go ahead and put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the White House as elect the "Law and Order" poobah. If that's the sort of thing Thompson supports, he not only may as well be an Iranian spy, he will never ever gain the trust of the US intelligence community, which is absolutely necessary for a president in these perilous times.

Plame Wilson portrayed herself to the outside world as an employee of an energy corporation, Brewster Jennings & Associates. That was a dummy corporation set up for the purposes of tradecraft by the CIA. Cheney and his henchmen destroyed the value of that facade. They also put in danger the lives of everyone known to have closely associated with Plame Wilson and her "company"-- i.e. her assets and contacts in Africa and elsewhere helping her with counter-proliferation. Cheney had Libby and his other gang members potentially "burn" all those agents. Since Plame Wilson's activities were classified, it is not possible for us to know for sure, but it is entirely possible that Libby's efforts (and those of his more effective colleague, Karl Rove) got these assets killed.

Personally, I think the special prosecutor in this case was far too cautious. He brought only obstruction of justice charges. I think there were grounds to bring espionage charges, and not just against Libby. You can't tell the American press about an undercover operative's true identity without also telling Iran about it.

Readers who want a primer on this complicated case can find my earlier explanation of it here.

Postscript

Joe and Valerie Wilson sent out this comment on the sentencing via their attorney:

"As Americans, both Valerie and I are grateful that justice has been served, reconfirming that our country remains a nation of laws. We are also saddened for the pain that Mr. Libby has inflicted on his family, friends, and the nation. Mr. Libby benefited from the best this country had to offer: the finest schools, a lucrative career as a lawyer and many years of service in Republican administrations. That he would knowingly lie, perjure himself and obstruct a legitimate criminal investigation is incomprehensible. It is our hope that he will now cooperate with Special Counsel Fitzgerald in his efforts to get to the truth. As Mr. Fitzgerald has said, a cloud remains over the Vice President. Every official in this administration must be held accountable for their actions." Jared Liu-Klein Winner & Associates 16501 Ventura Boulevard, Suite 605 Encino, CA 91436 818-385-1900 www.winnerandassociates.com

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

3/4s of Baghdad out of Control
Priest Killed
Sad Graduation for Iraqi College Students

A bleak internal US military assessment of the progress of the Bush/Kagan "surge" in Baghdad, revealed by the NYT on Monday, has been followed up on by CNN.. Here is what the Pentagon correspondent is saying:

' A top U.S. commander tells CNN that three quarters of Baghdad simply is not under the control of U.S. or Iraqi security forces. Brigadier General Vincent Brooks says just one quarter of Baghdad is in a controlled state. Brooks said control means U.S. and Iraqi forces are able to maintain physical influence over a specific area, preventing its use by the enemy.

It's been three months since the security crackdown began. More than 20,000 U.S. troops have poured into the city. But Brooks says there is still a crucial problem -- the lack of qualified Iraqi police.

In some areas, they are still loyal to death squads and militias. In other areas, there just aren't enough police. In neighborhoods such as Amiriyia and West Rashid, U.S. troops are still having to go back into those areas that they had cleared.

Attacks against U.S. troops in Baghdad are on the rise. Military intelligence officials are analyzing this video from the Islamic State of Iraq claiming to show Russian grenades being thrown at U.S. troops. Analysts say these grenades may be designed to burst into high temperature fires on impact. One official calls it a new threat. '

Funny how Iran agrees to meet with the US about Iraq, and then Russian President Vladimir Putin shoots his mouth off about missiles, and all of a sudden the deadly weaponry in Iraq is coming from Russia, not Iran.

Both reports underlined that US troops are just not present on a continual basis in the vast majority of neighborhoods. Among the bars to progress is that the Iraqi authorities have not

1. provided enough troops and policemen to man checkpoints and patrol neighborhoods, just as a matter of sheer numbers

2. provided enough security forces willing to take risks

3. provided even-handed security forces that won't protect other Shiites from the militias.

And, remember that quieting down Baghdad was supposed to give the al-Maliki government breathing space to make the deep political compromises that might end the insurgency by negotiation. None of that political work appears to have been done, and not only because just one-fourth of the capital has even begun to be pacified.

See Ambassador Helman's op-ed below.

The fringe group calling itself 'the Islamic State of Iraq' claimed in a video on Monday to have killed 3 captured US soldiers. Although the US military says that the group presents no real proof, they did show the men's i.d. cards.

Suspected radical Salafis killed a priest and 3 deacons in the northern city of Mosul on Monday. The vast majority of American Catholics are unaware that Pope John Paul II opposed the Iraq War.

The enterprising Damien Cave of the NYT went out and interviewed Iraqi college students just graduating. This is the Bush class, in a way. He found disintegrating universities, looted equipment, assassinated professors, cancelled classes, and a graduating class that mostly intended immediately to flee the country. (See below; 3 university students on their way home from Baghdad to Sulaymaniya in the north were kidnapped for ransom on Monday.)

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq on Monday. Police found 28 bodies in Baghdad. Other major incidents:

' BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed three people and wounded eight in Zaafaraniya district of southern Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A suicide truck bomber wounded two guards at the house of a local police brigadier near Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a Chaldean Catholic priest and three of his assistants in Mosul on Sunday, police said on Monday.

TAJI - A suicide car bomber killed three Iraqi soldiers and wounded three at a checkpoint near Taji, 20 km (9 miles) north of Baghdad, on Sunday, an Iraqi military source said. . .

McClatchy has more, including the kidnapping for ransom of 3 university students from Sulaymaniya who were studying in Baghdad.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the "National Tendency" (leftist) is saying that Basra is afflicted by a rash of militia clashes, assassinations, and criminal acts, with what it calls a "collapse of security" in the city. The small leftist party called for immediate elections in the province of Basra, given the governing council's inability to resolve its current political crisis. The council voted to unseat the governor, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili, but has not been able to install a successor. The council has 41 members and is fairly evenly divided between members from the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and from the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) and its allies.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Helman Guest Op-Ed:
Even Plan B Doesn't Look Promising in Failed State of Iraq

Ambassador Gerald B. Helman writes:

There are continuing reports, seemingly based upon authoritative backgrounding out of Baghdad and Washington, suggesting that variations on a "Plan B" are being developed. While support continues to be voiced for the current "surge", doubt is beginning to be expressed even by military and White House officials that a confident evaluation of the surge is unlikely by the promised deadline of September. It may take longer, perhaps to the end of the year. General Odierno was quite forceful in insisting that a serious evaluation cannot be made until January. From the military point of view, the surge is evidently not producing the desired results of improving security in Baghdad, and is unlikely to do so under current plans and force levels. After an initial slight lull, the level of violence is back up to pre-surge levels, and then some in the case of US deaths. The political component of the surge, the overriding importance of which has been underscored by General Petraeus, is also stalled. It has failed to bring about any significant reconciliation between contending Iraqi factions nor has it led to progress on key legislation, the adoption of which is supposed to lead to a more stable political environment. For domestic political consumption, the White House seems to be addressing all of this, at least for now, through its familiar tactics of pushing out the time when success can be expected (originally it was six months from the initiation of the surge, then September sometime) and dampening expectations by predicting the obvious--increased US casualties. In other words, things will get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, work on a Plan B continues, with the options apparently ranging from elements of the Iraq Study Group Report (reduce US forces, concentrate on training the Iraqi army and force protection and continuing interdiction of al Qaeda) to variations on partition. Most recently, the President and others have suggested establishing a long-term US military base presence in Iraq to provide local and regional stability, citing as an example the continuing US military presence in Korea. (This example is so inept historically and strategically as to cast further doubt on the competence and strategic objectives of the Administration.) Presumably the bases are the three huge installations the Pentagon built a while ago with permanency in mind. Much of the Plan B planning, as reported, seems to be the product of wishful thinking about the current situation today in Iraq and what realistic options might exist in the 6 months ahead, and beyond leading to U.S. elections. To this observer, given the history of our performance in Iraq, any new plan must be subjected to early and very critical evaluation. Politically, Iraq today is a failed state. Its writ runs only through part of the Green Zone. It cannot control the use of force domestically nor can it protect its frontiers. Its continuing existence depends upon the US. The US is the occupying power and provides significant financing and what little security exists outside the Green Zone. Baghdad and the rest of the country are under the control of warring factions and militias. Corruption is endemic and overwhelming. The loyalties of the police and army are as suspect as their professional competence. How will any plan B change that? How will the existence of large, permanent US bases in Iraq help the present Government expand its authority and gain legitimacy? Militarily, it is important to project what might happen if, in six months, the US implements a Plan B whose principal elements consist of a troop drawdown to 100,000 in 2008, dedicated to Iraqi army training, force protection and al Qaeda interdiction. But is there any reason to hope that in six months' time the Iraqi army will stand tall and demonstrate the competence that the surge was designed to showcase? That the police will be anything other than hopeless? That their loyalties will be directed to their elected government? None of this is very likely, in which case what happens to the US presence in the Green Zone and, indeed, to the Iraqi government that is pretty much confined to the Green Zone? What reason is there to think that a new training regimen, presumably with embedded US trainers (who will be very vulnerable), will be any more successful than what has passed for training during much of the last four years. Will it really take large numbers of US troops in three permanent bases to chase down 1-2,000 El Qaeda? Should it really be the job of the US to defend Iraq against foreign invasions? And who is about to invade (except for maybe the Turks to punish the Kurds)? To this observer, there is nothing in the suggested Plan B, even if in part based on the Iraq Study Group Report, that would recommend it as an alternative to an announced, scheduled withdrawal from Iraq, that could also incorporate the elements of the Study Group report. Such a schedule would have the virtue of forcing the contending factions in Iraq, and Iraq's neighbors, to face up to their responsibilities to find a political accommodation, or to face the consequences of their (and our) failures. This is not rocket science; it's hardball politics in which the US is just one of the pawns that various Iraqi factions are trying to manipulate. But there remains the question of the permanent bases, a concept now being floated by the Administration but one which must have been in the minds of the White House and our military planners from the time when these massive installations were first projected. Congress should probe this one very carefully and insist that the Administration's plans should be on the public record. Whatever their purposes, and certainly there has been little candor on the part of the Administration as to what these are, the bases will never be accepted either by the Iraqi people, of whatever faction (except the Kurds). It will violate every concept of independence, national pride and Arab identity that have been the hallmarks of the post-colonial period. Any Iraqi government that supported it would not only fail, but would be despised. Such bases might have the dubious benefit of uniting all Iraqis in opposition. Only a US Administration that expected to be greeted with flowers by the Iraqis could convince itself that those same Iraqis will tolerate such bases and that such bases could survive in hostile territory, with long and endangered supply lines. Not to be forgotten is that a delay in evaluating the surge, much less the kind of Plan B that seems to be emerging, will impact the domestic political process. There is restiveness in the Republican ranks. The polls are clear that a growing majority of Americans want out. The Republican establishment realizes full well that if the current level of violence continues into next year, with US deaths approaching 5,000 by November 2008, then the GOP will suffer a disastrous defeat in November. Moreover, the Democrats are unlikely to be as accommodating as they were with the last supplemental. It is the budget, and the need to continue financing the war, that will constitute the center of the debate beginning in September. Republicans up for reelection in '08 will have to fish or cut bait on Iraq. As for Mr. Bush, he still seems to be on track to hand over the entire mess to his successor, including his permanent bases.

Helman "was United States Ambassador to the European Office of the United Nations from 1979 through 1981" and was among the coiners of the phrase "failed states."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

The Lobby: No Mosques Allowed in America

A recent joint poll by Americans for Peace Now and the Arab American Institute [pdf] shows remarkable convergence in the views of a weighted sample of Jewish Americans and Arab Americans on Arab-Israeli peace. In contrast to the mainstream American Jewish community, which has fought tirelessly for justice and tolerance in the US, a small group of fanatics has made a different impression.

Karin Friedman details a conspiracy by rightwing Zionist groups in Boston to prevent the city's Muslims from worshipping freely at their own mosque. This article is especially good on the "David Project," among the ideologically more dangerous hate groups in the US. Friedman writes,

' Many celebrated the construction of New England's largest mosque as proof of "the Muslim community coming into its own." Yet not everyone celebrated. In 2004, the City of Boston was sued for selling the land to Muslims. Racist commentators whipped up public hysteria against the mosque.

"Muslims are very upset," said Mushtaque Mirza, who has lived in Boston for 30 years. "The mosque is always depicted as [supporting] terrorism." . . .

When in 2005, mosque directors Dr. Yousef Abou Allaban and Ossama Kandil sued Fox News and the Boston Herald for defamation, analysis of discovery materials exposed a professionally coordinated network of pro-Israel organizations, mass media, Islamophobic academics, and real estate developers. The directors accused a growing list of defendants, including Steven Emerson, the David Project, and Citizens for Peace and Tolerance (CPT), whose president is Dennis Hale, of "a concerted, well-coordinated effort to deprive ... members of the Boston Muslim community of their basic right of free association and the free exercise of their religion."

Islamophobia or Anti-Muslimism may be the biggest moral challenge to American values of tolerance and respect for the rights of all in the 21st century. And, insofar as American Muslims tend to be endogamous (practice in-marriage), they over time increasingly will form an ethnic group, so that hatred of them is not just religious bigotry but also racism (i.e., when acted upon, illegal in US law.)

I have said it before, and I will say it again. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Members of the American Jewish community who think it is entertaining to spread hatred against another minority will eventually discover that the habits of hatred are hard to uproot and know no ethnic boundaries.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Dominates Democratic Debate
14 US Troops Killed over Weekend

The Democratic Party candidates for president debated on Sunday evening. Iraq dominated the first half of the debate. Shorter versions:

Biden: We can't get out of Iraq because we don't have the votes to end the war in the Senate. Since Congress cannot force Bush to withdraw, we have to vote money to support the troops while Bush unilaterally keeps them there. We need a new president to get the troops out.

Edwards: We need to admit openly that voting to authorize an Iraq War was a "mistake" and then we have to withdraw US troops from Iraq. (This was a slam at Hillary, who voted to authorize the Iraq War and will not apologize for it]. Clinton and Obama didn't come out strong enough or early enough against authorizing more money for Bush's war in the supplemental.

(Barack replied: Edwards voted for the war in the first place and is 4 1/2 years late to provide leadership on this issue.)

Clinton: The vote to authorize the president to fight the "war on terror" seemed reasonable at the time. We are safer than we were before 9/11 but not safe enough.

Obama: I was against the war in 2002 when Edwards and Clinton voted for it. Get out by March 31, 2008, but keep troops in Kuwait.

Kucinich: The way to end the war is to end the war.

Christopher Dodd: Was first to sign on to the Feingold-Reid-Dodd bill to set a timetable for US withdrawal. He also stressed energy independence.) (Dodd's campaign complained that he was given very little time to speak by Wolf Blitzer).

Mike Gravel: The way to end the war is to end the war.

Reuters reports on civil war violence in Iraq for Sunday, another bloody day.

The US military announced the killings of 14 US GIs over the weekend, with 6 killed on Sunday alone. Iraqi guerrillas used roadside bombs to effect most of these deaths.

In Baladruz, a carbombing in a market left at least 10 dead and 20 wounded.

Police found 31 bodies in Baghdad (victims of sectarian death squads), and another 9 near Baquba to the northeast. Bodies also showed up this weekend in the northern, largely Sunni Arab city of Mosul.

A Sunni Arab cleric was assassinated in West Baghdad (Shaikh Ali Khudir al-Zand in the al-Khadhraa district).

There was fighting this weekend between local guerrillas in Diwaniya (Shiite) and Falluja (Sunni) and Iraqi and/or US forces. In Diwaniya 3 were killed and 29 wounded on Saturday in Mahdi Army/ Iraqi army clashes. In Falluja, US & Iraqi government forces claimed to have killed 9 radical Salafis ("al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia").

McClatchy says that two separate roadside bombs in Baghdad killed 2 and wounded 5.

Northwest of Baquba, guerrillas set up a fake checkpoint & stopped Iraqi government forces, then opened fire on them, killing 5 and wounding 7.

Residents of the Sho'la district of Baghdad risked coming out in the hundreds to protest [Ar.] the continued lack of water, electricity and services in their part of the capital. They said that the politicians who ran for office in 2005 had betrayed their promises to the people.

Sort of like what Gravel said in the debate about the results of the November 2006 election, which the people clearly intended to end the Iraq War.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Gore on Bush Propaganda
US Bombs Shiite Sadr City

It is no surprise that Al Gore is attacking Bush in his new book, of course. Nor is it a surprise that Gore accuses Bush of ignoring all reasonable evidence in both making the decision to invade Iraq and in deciding to do nothing about global warming.

What is important about what Gore is saying is his focus on how the pollution of America's information environment by 1) corporate media consolidation (all television news is brought to Americans by five private corporations, the CEOs of which all vote Republican) and 2) government propaganda (i.e. lies purveyed to Americans using the money and resources of Americans).

Polling shows that the percentage of Americans who view Iran as the number one threat to the United States has risen to 27 percent now. I think it was only 20 percent in December 2006. First of all, how in the world can a developing country with about a fourth of the population of the US, about a $2000 per capita income (in real terms, not local purchasing power), with no intercontinental ballistic missiles, with no weapons of mass destruction (and no proof positive it is trying to get them), with a small army and a small military budget-- how is such a country a "threat" to the United States of America? Iranian leaders don't like the US, and they talk dirty about the US, and they do attempt to thwart US interests. The same is true of Venezuela under Chavez. But Tehran is a minor player on the world stage, and trying to build it up to replace the Soviet Union is just the worst sort of fear-mongering, and it is being done on behalf of the US military industrial complex, which wants to do to Iran what it did to Iraq. It is propaganda, and significant numbers of Americans (a 7 percent increase would be like 21 million people!) are buying it.

Why have those poll numbers gone up? Because the Bush administration is trying to hang the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq on Iran (and even trying to hang the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan on Iran). The message of administration and military spokesmen is that Iran is deliberately killing US troops and is a major source of insurgency in Iraq. No convincing evidence has ever been presented for either allegation, nor is it reasonable to assume that Iran plays a significant role in funding hyper-Sunni, Shiite-killing death squads to deliberately destabilize its client governments in Baghdad (al-Maliki) and Kabul (Karzai). Yet the New York Times and even the Guardian put this b.s. on the front page, and of course it is all over CNN, Fox Cable News, MSNBC, etc. Are US journalists trapped in the the dictates of the military-industrial complex by virtue of working for these mega corporations? We know that Roger Ailes at Fox Cable News orders his employees how to spin the day's news (he is a former high Republican Party official). Has any of the journalists counted up how many of the 127 US troops killed in Iraq in May was killed in Sunni Arab areas and how many in Shiite neighborhoods? Has any of them actually read the translated communiques on World News Connection of the Sunni Arab guerrillas and what they say about Iran and Shiites? Has any demanded air tight proof and non-anonymous sources before printing this garbage?

No.

It is this sort of thing that Gore is alarmed about. He is a man of enormous experience in public life, and he is saying that he sees a sea change for the worse in this regard. I concur.

The NYT on the fallout of the bridge bombing between Kirkuk and Irbil on Saturday, and increasing Arab/Kurdish and Turkish/Kurdish tensions.

McClatchy reports civil war violence in Iraq on Saturday. Police found 26 bodies in the streets of the capital, victims of sectarian death squads (most of them in Sunni Arab neighborhoods). 2 bodies were delivered to Diyala morgue (presumably in Baquba). Another 2 were found in the city of Khalis in the same province. Other major incidents:

' - 7 civilians were wounded when mortar shells hit Al Fadhil neighborhood [Baghdad]. . .

- A security source said that 5 civilians were killed in insurgencies in different towns of Diyala province yesterday afternoon.

- An Iraqi army soldier was killed in a car bomb explosion targeted a check point south Udhim town north of Baquba on Friday evening. . .

- A source in the 5th Iraqi army division said that an Iraqi army soldier was killed and 4 others wounded in an IED explosion targeted their patrol in Muqdadiyah town north of east Baquba city today afternoon. . .

- 6 civilians were injured when mortar shells hit Al Arasa neighborhood, one of the outskirts of Muqdadiyah town today afternoon. . .

- - 6 members of emergency brigade were injured when an IED exploded targeting their vehicle in Sari Kihya neighborhood downtown Kirkuk city on Friday evening, police said.
'

The US was engaged in a bombing campaign against the civilian neighborhood of Habibiya in Sadr City (Shiite East Baghdad) on Saturday evening. The strikes probably targeted Mahdi Army militiamen; however, you can't bomb civilian neighborhoods without killing civilians.
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