Lebanon takes 2 Steps
toward Civil War;
Beirut in Chaos
On late Friday, the Lebanese army moved into some neighborhoods that had been taken during the day by the Hizbullah militia.
Hizbullah routed Sunni militiamen loyal to Saad Hariri and set fire to the offices of al-Mustaqbal newspaper, his press outlet. (The Lebanese Army declined to intervene, the same mistake it made in 1975).
Likewise, the Futur or Mustaqbal television station is off the air after employees fled for "security reasons." But the fighting hasn't just been between Sunni and Shiite. There has been other ethnic violence, too. Members of the Syrian National Socialist Party (probably mostly Eastern Orthodox Christians) attacked the Mustaqbal archives building. (SNSP is pro-Syrian and is allied with Hizbullah). In Tripoli pro-Hariri and anti-Hariri Sunnis clashed. (Some Sunnis up there are loyal to the rival Karami family while others belong to the Baath Party of Lebanon-- both clashed with the Hariri forces).
Liz Sly of the Chicago Tribune is a veteran correspondent in Beirut and her observations are very valuable. She points to the collapse of the red line earlier drawn by Hassan Nasrallah whereby his militia would never attack other Lebanese.
Lebanon is on the brink of civil war.
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/09/2008 12:15:00 PM
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6 Comments:
Here's Christopher Allbritton's take on the goings on there.
It doesn't bode well for Cheney's desire to bomb Iran... nor oil price futures.
So knowing full well that this would result, why did the Lebanese gov't insist on provoking the Hezbollah?
(Note that BBC has started to refer to Hezbollah as "pro-Syrian". Funny how they never referred to the Phalangists as "pro-Israel")
I don't be surprised if this was done on order of US goverment this explain too arrival of USS Cole and amphibuious ship on shores of Lebanon. Probably There were contingent of marines and military police who after capturing airfield has order establish there next small guantanamo in order to sending there hezbollah soldiers and liqudaite there not only them but other opponents of US new middle east
Actually, this will probably serve as another justification for escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran.
When are people going to stop calling the conflict as Sunni-Shiite conflicts?
You have Christians-Sunni-Shiite and atheist on all side of the conflict. This is about politics and power struggle, the haves and have-nots.
For god sake stop this divide and conquer labellings.
to be honest Juan i dont think this will lead to civil war, at least not of a sectarian nature. Hezbullah are so powerful as to be magnanamous to the sunni. They most likely will exile the traitors and their families, let them take their millions with them and then bring in their sunni allies in opposition (of which there are many). These anti hariri sunnis are absolutely vital to Hezbullah avoiding a civil war. Also hezbullah arent sectarian like the SCIRI in Iraq and like the sadrists have a populist appeal that can attract sunnis and even christians and other minorities.
Im not worried at all about an iraq style collapse and never have been. Im just shocked that the government thought it wise to prod the guys who fought the IDF to a standstill for over a month.
Cheney's masters must have really gotten desperate to make Jumblatt attempt this as a serious power move.
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